8-0 Maryland

This map is extremely ugly, but it gets the job done.  The main reason for its ugliness is the VRA retrogression rule.  So, in order to use white Democrats to our advantage, almost all the whites in the VRA-protected 4th and 7th districts are Republicans.  Likewise, in the other districts, almost all the Democrats are white.  If not for the VRA, we could have made a much more compact map with a nearly invincible 8-0 delegation.

The main goals here were:

1. Make an Obama district for Kratovil.

2. Knock out Bartlett and Harris.

3. Make almost all the other districts 60% Obama.

Here’s the map:

District 1 (blue): Frank Kratovil?

It keeps the Eastern Shore intact, but sheds the conservative areas in Northern Maryland.  It uses water contiguity to grab liberal areas of Annapolis, as well as parts of mid and southern Maryland.  The current PVI is R+13.  It’s now like R+4 or 5, which should be no problem for Kratovil, barring another 2010.  It also manages to move Harris into one of the other districts.

Obama: 50.5%, McCain: 48% (previously 58-40 McCain)

White: 68.9%, Black: 22.3%

VAP: White: 71.5%%, Black: 21.3%

Likely D for Kratovil, Lean R otherwise

District 2 (green): Dutch Ruppersberger/Andy Harris

The district is weakened considerably from its current D+7 to around D+2, but Harris has no chance here, considering he lost in an R+13 district in 2008.  In Congressional races between 2006-2008, the Democrat actually won an average of 59.7%.  Parts of Baltimore County are more Democratic than the Obama-McCain numbers show.  Some of the people actually vote for Democrats, but are notorious racists and McCain mopped up in this area.  For example, in Edgemere, all 3 precincts went solidly for McCain, but the congressional Democrat won in both 2006 and 2008.  So, Ruppersberger should be fine in this district, barring another 2010.   As a side note, John Sarbanes probably lives here as well, but would likely opt to run in the new 3rd.

Obama: 54.8%, McCain: 42.8% (previously 60-38 Obama)

White: 68.5%, Black: 19.0%

VAP: White: 71.8%, Black: 17.1%

Likely D vs. Harris, Lean D otherwise

District 8 (light purple): Chris Van Hollen

This stretches north and adds northwest Maryland, as part of the plan to knock out Bartlett.  It goes down from D+21 to about D+7, but Van Hollen is definitely safe.

Obama: 60.5%, McCain: 37.9 (previously 74-25 Obama)

White: 65.1%, Hispanic: 12.7%, Asian: 10.8%

VAP: White: 67.0%, Hispanic: 11.7%, Asian: 10.9%

Safe D

Central Maryland:

District 3 (purple): John Sarbanes

Not too much to say here.  Its PVI of D+6 probably stays about the same.

Obama: 59.8%, McCain: 38.2% (previously 59-39 Obama)

White: 57.9%, Black: 24.2%

VAP: White: 61.0%, Black: 23.0%

Safe D

District 4 (red): Donna Edwards

This black-majority district extends far north and south to take in as many Republicans as possible.  Might a lose a few points off its D+31 rating, but it’s not like that would make any difference.  It barely meets retrogression requirements by staying at 56.8% black.

Obama: 76.5%, McCain: 22.6% (previously 85-14 Obama)

Black: 56.8%, White: 30.7%

VAP: Black: 56.4%, White: 32.2%

Safe D

District 5 (yellow): Steny Hoyer

The used-condom district includes liberal areas in Montgomery, Prince George, and Anne Arundel Counties, as well as Republican areas from wrapping around the 4th district.  Hoyer doesn’t live here, but he basically lives in DC anyway, so he would just run here.  It may be weakened a bit from its current D+11, but he’s still safe.

Obama: 60.0%, McCain: 38.3% (previously 65-33 Obama)

White: 54.9%, Black: 24.6%, Hispanic: 11.4%

VAP: White: 57.1%, Black: 24.0%, Hispanic: 10.1%

Safe D

District 6 (teal): Roscoe Bartlett

Bartlett is technically the incumbent, but has pretty much no chance here.  His current district is R+13, but this is D+6 or 7.  We’ll still probably have to run a minor campaign the first time to ensure he doesn’t become a Republican Chet Edwards, but otherwise we’re safe.  Someone who knows more about Maryland politics could suggest a possible Dem candidate here.

Obama: 60.2%, McCain: 38.1% (previously 58-40 McCain)

White: 57.1%, Black: 17.2%, Hispanic: 15.8%

VAP: White: 59.6%, Black: 17.0%, Hispanic: 14.5%

Likely D vs. Bartlett in 2012, Safe D otherwise

Baltimore Area Close-up:

District 7 (gray): Elijah Cummings

Perhaps the ugliest district on this map, this includes black areas in Baltimore City, as well as deep red parts of Baltimore and Harford Counties.  It probably stays at around D+25.

Obama: 71.5%, McCain: 27.1% (previously 79-20 Obama)

Black: 59.1%, White: 34.5%

VAP: Black: 57.9%, White: 36.3%

Safe D