SurveyUSA for the Louisville Courier-Journal & WHAS11 (4/8-13, likely voters, no trendlines):
David Williams (R): 49
Phil Moffet (R): 14
Bobbie Holsclaw (R): 12
Undecided: 25
(MoE: ±4.4%)
Steve Beshear (D-inc): 51
David Williams (R): 39
Undecided: 10Steve Beshear (D-inc): 54
Phil Moffet (R): 34
Undecided: 13Steve Beshear (D-inc): 53
Bobbie Holsclaw (R): 34
Undecided: 13
(MoE: ±2.5%)
The Republican primary is just a month away – May 17th – and it’s hard to imagine state Senate President David Williams losing. But despite Kentucky’s dark red turn of late, the general election numbers show that incumbency and candidate quality really do matter. SUSA paints the most optimistic picture for Steve Beshear so far, but his 12-point lead is in line with what we’ve seen previously (PPP +9, Braun +10).
While I’d expect this race to tighten as we approach election day, it’s also worth noting that Williams went on the air with his first TV ad a couple of weeks ago, before this poll went into the field. I’m guessing the buy was fairly small and probably had a limited impact on his numbers, but the fact that he’s still in the 30s isn’t a good sign for Republicans. You never want to get too comfortable in a race like this, but Beshear is looking pretty good.
I wonder if Kentucky voters are having a sense of “buyer’s remorse” in reverse to the teabagger Governors taking a popularity nose dive in Florida, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin, and in turn inadvertently helping Dem Senators running for reelection in those states.
Whether it’s that or something else, Beshear must be thanking his lucky stars the election is this year, and not 2010.
I’d be interested to see polling with him added; he’s running as an independent. Yes, he’s kind of a gadfly/perennial candidate, but he’s staked out a position to the left of Beshear, so he could draw some votes. Plus he got 15% in 1999 on the Reform Party ticket.
http://barefootandprogressive….
Approval of the tea party in KY fell and is now even to the disapproval since last October.
Full cross-tabs:
Democrats
Beshear- 73
Williams- 19
Republicans
Beshear- 22
Williams- 68
Independents
Beshear- 42
Williams- 42
Conservatives
Beshear- 30
Williams- 60
Moderates
Beshear- 66
Williams- 27
Liberals
Beshear- 81
Williams- 9
Men
Beshear- 48
Williams- 44
Women
Beshear- 54
Williams- 35
Below 50 years old
Beshear- 48
Williams- 42
50 or older
Beshear- 53
Williams- 37