Dream scenarios almost never happen in politics. But this is America, and if you didn’t learn last year that ANYTHING can happen in American politics you might as well hang up your hat now. That said, I’m looking at the dream scenario that could play out in Florida next year. I should say though, I’M NOT SAYING THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN! I hate it when folks talk with absolute certainty about what can and can’t or will and won’t happen. What I’m saying is, this is a POSSIBILITY and if it doesn’t happen, at least we had the dream. If it does happen though, it will be fantastic.
So, here’s the scenario: Crist runs for Senate, loses the primary to Marco Rubio, and the Senate race and the governorship both flip to our side.
How could this happen?
First, let’s look at the Governor’s race, as I don’t think there’s much argument that, if Crist gets out, it will be competitive.
The Democratic candidate is a no brainer: Florida CFO Alex Sink, who would be an incredibly strong candidate. The Republican frontrunner would, presumably, be Florida AG Bill McCollum, but there’s the rub. There are a ton of Republicans that could jump in if Crist bails: Ag. Commissioner Charlie Bronson, Former House Speaker Allan Bense, Lt. Gov Jeff Kottkamp (who’s in some legal trouble), and potentially some congresscritters. A one on one race between Sink and the eventual nominee would remain a tossup to the end, but a brutal Republican primary…that would make it just that much easier for Florida to elect it’s first female governor, and an incredibly competent and skillfull one at that.
Now, to the Senate race and the scenario that could play out.
There is a formula for Rubio to defeat Crist. It’s not a guarantee, but here it is:
1) Solidify support from the teabaggers and their ilk. These folks are already pissed at Crist over the stimulus and a few other policies he’s pushed and the rage in the Republican ranks is growing only louder and crazier. All Rubio has to do is start popping up at tea parties and laying in a few punches and he’ll get some momentum going. From there, it’s easy to see him appearing on the right wing outlets-Beck, Hannity, Limbaugh, etc. and landing major support that will help tremendously in the primary.
2) Solidify the right-wing Cuban support. Now, let me be clear here, I fully believe that being a member of a group no way guarantees the votes of the members of said group. I’m talking about the right-wing Cuban noise machine here that’s been making south Florida’s politics toxic for decades. Obviously, Rubio has plenty of windows to open here, but that said this whole thing would unravel if major figures from that machine like the Diaz-Balart brothers got solidly into the Crist camp. If Rubio wants to win though, or even if he wants to look serious, he needs to poll well among Latino (specifically Cuban) Republicans. I have no idea where Crist stands on Cuba, but all it will take is one slip, or even the suggestion that he might vote wrong on the issue. Hell, if he doesn’t say anything or gets mealy-mouthed he’ll lose out here. So there’s definately an oppurtunity for Rubio.
3) Enter the CFG. The Club for Growth is already talking up Rubio and are furious with Crist over the stimulus. They’ve been great at bombing races with tons of money and even when they weren’t successful in the primary they’ve often doomed the chances of the more moderate winner. They’ll definately be a major factor here.
4) Keep the momentum going. If Rubio locks up support from these major players in the primary, generates media buzz and decent fundraising (he doesn’t have to beat Crist’s numbers, the CFG will do that. He just has to raise a decent amount and stay competitive), and doesn’t screw up, he can build on this strategy. If he got the NRA endorsement it would help him tremendously, especially in the panhandle. He could also get support from religious right groups who would be all too happy to take on a closet case like Crist in the primary. And speaking of which, there’s always the major shadow hanging over Charlie boy. At some point his sexuality is going to catch up with him at some point, the only question is when it will happen and how bad will the explosion be.
Like I said, I’m not saying this scenario will play out. At best I’d say it’s got a 1 in 5 chance, maybe a 1 in 4. Hell, Rubio could turn out to be blowing smoke and just jump into the Gov. race if Crist gets in. But if he’s not, we shouldn’t write this one off just yet. If Rubio does win in will be narrowly, and he’ll have pushed himself so far to the right that it will be much easier to defeat him than it would be if he won without facing Crist in the primary. If you’ve ever seen Rubio speak, you know he comes off as an ordinary guy, very conservative but still likeable-the worst kind there is. A divisive primary though will come back to haunt him and, who knows, even if Crist were to win he might be so bloodied as to be unreconizable, giving our eventual nominee (whoever it is, though right now I don’t see how it’s not Congressman Meek) an opening.
This one isn’t out of contention by a long shot yet. This could happen. It’s not the most likely scenario in the world, but it’s still a very real possibility.
