Author: Crisitunity

The vaunted McCain campaign “re-boot” is now in its second day, and at this point it’s looking like they’re just hitting ctrl-alt-delete over and over again as white smoke pours out the back of the computer… and their malaise seems to be dragging down the Congressional ballot too. Perhaps that comes as no surprise to us in the lefty blogosphere, but now mainstream purveyors of the conventional wisdom are starting to move this story to the forefront, such as Politico, with not one but two stories on this front today.

For starters, the NRSC is getting a financial bailout of its own: from the RNC. (Talk about robbing Peter to pay Paul.) The RNC is prepared to tap its $5 million line of credit, not to save McCain but to head off the possibility of a 60-seat Democratic caucus in the Senate with huge ad buys of their own.

And with the House and Senate Republican campaign committees being drastically outspent by their Democratic counterparts, and outside groups such as Freedom’s Watch offering far less help than was once anticipated, Republicans are turning to the national party committee as a lender of last resort.

A decision is imminent because television time must be reserved and paid for upfront, and available slots are dwindling.

This won’t be a direct allocation of funds to the NRSC, since the NRSC and RNC are prohibited by law from coordinating independent expenditures (such as where to run ads or their content). But the RNC can easily deduce from previous NRSC buys and public polling where their advertising help is needed. This money isn’t coming out of funds that were previously designated for McCain, but it’s telling that for the home stretch they’d rather tap their emergency stash for Senate triage, rather than bolstering McCan’t’s fading chances. (As an indication how far we’ve come, I idly speculated on this very possibility back in June, and got laughed out of the building.)

Politico also delves into the corresponding mess at the NRCC, where highly touted recruits like Darren White (NM-01) and Erik Paulsen (MN-03) are apparently being left to fend for themselves in the coming weeks as the NRCC’s meager holdings are divvied up among endangered veterans.

I did a bit of a double-take when seeing the example they gave:

GOP Reps. John B. Shadegg of Arizona, Lee Terry of Nebraska, Henry Brown Jr. of South Carolina and Dan Lungren of California are all fighting for their political lives, a reversal of fortunes that has caught even the most astute campaign observers by surprise.

The GOP is publicly confessing to being worried about the challenges posed by Linda Ketner (SC-01) and Bill Durston (CA-03)? Either this is the most monumental of all head-fakes, or they’re looking up at a tsunami that even we at SSP are underestimating. Other names cited in the article as causes for concern include Lee Terry, Mark Souder (both victims of recent huge DCCC expenditures), Dana Rohrabacher, David Dreier, and Brian Bilbray, all of whom would be well behind a GOP firewall any other year.

SurveyUSA (10/11-12, likely voters, 9/23-24 in parens):

Jay Nixon (D): 56 (54)

Kenny Hulshof (R): 34 (37)

Andrew Finkenstadt (L): 4 (2)

Gregory Thompson (CP): 2 (2)

(MoE: ±4.2%)

At some point, we may have to invoke the SSP Mercy Rule on this race; with three weeks left and Nixon up by 22, it seems we can safely close the book on this race and put it on the shelf next to the Virginia senate race. Nixon leads in every region of the state, even the bible-thumping Southwest; he leads among gun owners and regular church goers. Add to this the knowledge that Hulshof, short on money, is drawing down his TV ad campaign (h/t RandySF).

Bear in mind this is the same sample that gives Obama a probably too-good-to-be-true lead in Missouri of 51-43. Even if it’s an overly optimistic sample, though, this isn’t the kind of deficit anyone comes back from.

UPDATE: Swing State Project has upgraded this race to Likely Democratic.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/5-7, likely voters):

Darcy Burner (D): 41

Dave Reichert (R): 49

(MoE: ±5%)

Lake Research Partners for Darcy Burner America’s Voice (9/23-25, likely voters):

Darcy Burner (D): 45

Dave Reichert (R): 48

(MoE: ±5.2%)

After losing to Dave Reichert by only a few points in the 2006 election, there were high hopes for Darcy Burner’s 2008 rematch. She led Reichert in fundraising through the cycle, and with Obama a particularly well-suited candidate for generating coattails in the affluent, suburban Eighth District, she seemed well-positioned to finish the job this year.

However, while the last few weeks have seen a few other re-match contestants (Eric Massa, Larry Kissell, Dan Seals) in swing districts moving into commanding positions, Burner seems to be remaining in the same position she was in before the financial crisis and corresponding Democratic surge: down in the mid-single digits. (Over the summer, she was down from 6 to 10 in three SurveyUSA polls, and most importantly, she was down about 4 against Reichert in the Top 2 primary.)

Research 2000 finds Burner down by 8. The internal presents a somewhat better picture for her: down by 3 in a straight head-to-head, but up by 9 (50-41) when voters are informed about the candidates’ positions. Over summer, such an internal poll might be heartening, but with four weeks left till the election, it doesn’t fill us with much confidence.

Several other factors also bode ill: we’re in the middle of a large (more than $400,000 combined) pro-Reichert ad buy by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and National Federation of Independent Business, which blunts Burner’s financial advantage. And today the Seattle Post-Intelligencer endorsed Reichert, touting his perceived moderation (they’re the more liberal of Seattle’s two papers; they have already endorsed Obama this year, and endorsed Burner in 2006). With that in mind, we’re downgrading WA-08 to “Lean Republican,” although we consider this as being on the cusp of “Toss-up,” and a strong showing the next SurveyUSA poll could put her right back in the thick of things.

Possible theories on why Burner is lagging include:

• this race seems to be getting less coverage in the local media than it did in 2006, drowned out by the heated and noisy gubernatorial race, as well as the drama of the presidential race and the economy, so it has sort of afterthought status this year;
  

• Reichert retains very high name recognition and favorables from his long stint as King County Sheriff (a non-partisan elected office), and, correctly or not, receives credit and the accompanying local celebrity status for catching the Green River Killer, making it difficult for Burner to drive up his negatives; and
  

• this district is probably more insulated from the crisis in the financial sector than most, as this district is all about, in its north, Microsoft, and in its south, Boeing (although we’ll see what happens as people open their 401(k) statements this week).

The internal polling memo is over the flip…

UPDATE (by James L.): It turns out this poll was not an internal poll for Burner, but rather one commissioned by America’s Voice.

Siena College (9/30-10/5, likely voters):

SD-37

Suzi Oppenheimer (D-inc): 61

Liz Feld (R): 24

(MoE: ±4.9%)

SD-55

David Nachbar (D): 21

James Alesi (R-inc): 62

(MoE: ±4.8%)

SD-58

William Stachowski (D-inc): 36

Dennis Delano (R): 49

(MoE: ±4.6%)

SD-59

Kathy Konst (D): 33

Dale Volker (R-inc): 50

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Siena has released a second batch of polls of contested New York Senate races. The first batch was a few weeks ago, and pointed to a likely Democratic pickup and another tied race, enough to flip control of the Senate to the Democrats (who are currently down 31-29 with 2 vacancies).

Unfortunately, this round of polling shows a fly in the ointment that wasn’t apparent before: incumbent Democrat William Stachowski from 55th District in Buffalo’s blue-collar suburbs (another long-term presence, in office since 1981) is trailing Dennis Delano, and by a substantial margin. (Delano, a Buffalo police detective, is apparently a local law enforcement celebrity.) If this seat goes down, the possibility of a tied Senate looms large.

Other polls in this race include two GOP-held upstate seats where the Democratic candidates (the highly-touted David Nachbar, and Kathy Konst, who bailed out of the NY-26 primary to run for state senate instead) have uphill climbs, and a seat in Westchester County where the Democratic incumbent looks to hang on easily. Several other closely contested races that are promising for the Dems (Padavan/Gennaro in SD-11 and Barber/Seward in SD-51) remain unpolled, so the quest to flip the New York state senate remains in limbo.

Strategic Vision (R) (10/5-7, likely voters, 9/7-9 in parens):

Jim Martin (D): 44 (36)

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 47 (54)

Allen Buckley (L): 4 (4)

(MoE: ±3%)

Here’s yet more confirmation that we have a real race on our hands in Georgia: even Republican pollster Strategic Vision has the race within three, tightening from an 18-point spread one month ago (before the stock market collapse, Chambliss’s bailout vote, and, as an extra treat for Georgians, gas lines). The same sample shows a surprisingly close presidential race in Georgia as well, with McCain up only 50-43.

This poll might stick out like a sore thumb, if it didn’t mirror every other poll taken in the last few weeks; in fact, this race just slipped in to yellow toss-up territory at Pollster.com. Winning here (and the other Pollster tossups) would not only take us to the ‘magic number’ of 60, but give us the immense satisfaction of taking out Chambliss, who owes his Senate seat to one of the most disgusting smear jobs in American history. His opponent, Jim Martin, was just yesterday added to O2B over at Kos (hint hint).

Rasmussen (10/9, likely voters, 9/18 in parens):

Al Franken (D): 43 (47)

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 37 (48)

Dean Barkley (IP): 17 (3)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Talk about a big shift: in the three weeks since the last Rasmussen poll of the Minnesota senate race, Norm Coleman has dropped 11 points. (Some of that is related to the GOP’s rapidly declining fortunes at the Senate level, but Coleman’s constant drip drip of ethical woes can’t be helping.) Al Franken has also dropped, though by a much smaller amount, leaving him with the biggest lead he’s seen all year in Rasmussen.

The real news here is Dean Barkley’s surge, which right now seems to be coming disproportionately out of Coleman’s slice of the pie. However, in the poll’s fine print, only 3% of all voters are “absolutely certain” they will vote for Barkley, so his actual number may be much lower than 17%. The good news is: when uncommitted Barkley voters and other leaners are pushed to choose Franken or Coleman, Franken still leads, 50-46.

However, there’s one other possibility that we at least need to start considering: that Barkley continues to gain, and in fact wins Jesse Ventura-style by elbowing aside two unpopular candidates. Given the very high unfavorables for both Coleman (55% somewhat or very unfavorable) and Franken (53%), it can’t be ruled out.

Norm Coleman has availed himself with great gusto of the various side benefits of being a senator, without too much concern for technicalities like the “Senate Gift Ban.” For instance, you may recall from several months ago the story of the Capitol Hill apartment that he rented for a laughable $600 per month from a friend… er… business associate… uh… let’s just make that “lobbyist.” (He also occasionally outright neglected to pay the rent until the National Journal started asking, and once paid the rent with used furniture, with no problem.)

Turns out Coleman has other means of enjoying the largesse of his closest friends, if by close friends you mean “donors”: Harper’s just detailed Coleman’s relationship with Minnesota businessman and big GOP donor Nasser Kazeminy. This included several junkets, to the Bahamas and Paris, on Kazeminy’s plane.

It also included Kazeminy covering the cost for Coleman’s clothing shopping sprees, and by that, I don’t mean a trip to Target to buy a sweatshirt:

I’ve been told by two sources that Kazeminy has in the past covered the bills for Coleman’s lavish clothing purchases at Neiman Marcus in Minneapolis. The sources were not certain of the dates of the purchases; if they were made before Coleman joined the Senate in 2003, he obviously would not be required to report it under senate rules. But having a private businessman pay for your clothing is never a good idea if you’re a public official (Coleman was mayor of St. Paul from 1994 to 2002).

Remember a charming gentleman by the name of Robert Toricelli (aka “The Torch”), who was an up-and-coming Democratic power broker in the Senate until he got swamped by a self-inflicted tidal wave of sleaze in 2002? Apparently, the Torch had a taste for bespoke suits on someone else’s dime as well:

In a three-page judgment, the panel chastised Torricelli for allowing businessman David Chang–a friend who later was convicted of illegally siphoning money into the senator’s campaign–to provide him with personal gifts that some have called bribes. According to Chang, these “gifts” included cash, Italian-made suits, a 52-inch television and an $8,000 Rolex watch.

Sensing a potential problem here (in the face of a fast-rising Al Franken), Coleman’s campaign manager gave a press conference earlier today to deny any wrongdoing on this or any other ethical front. Much hilarious stonewalling ensued (see video link here). With his race suddenly descending into a tie in the last few days, this is one distraction that Coleman can’t afford.

For the previous few weeks, it seemed like Darcy Burner had the TV airwaves in Washington’s Eighth District pretty much to herself, frequently running this ad calling attention to his no-bill-passing, 401st-out-of-439th-in-effectiveness-rating ways. With Republican incumbent Dave Reichert trailing in the money department, and the NRCC trying to spin dozens of plates elsewhere, Burner was free to advertise with impunity.

Well, she’s got some company now, as business front groups step in to fill the void left by the NRCC and Reichert’s own dwindling cash. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is spending $156,000 to air TV spots starting this week, on top of a $40,000 radio ad buy. (But wait: that’s not all! Next week, the National Federation of Independent Business is weighing in with another $219,000 television buy.)

Intervention by the Chamber in Washington politics isn’t unusual; in 2004, the Chamber plowed $1.5 million into the Washington Attorney General’s race, attacking Democratic candidate Deborah Senn (one of their Public Enemies No. 1, based on her slash-and-burn anti-corporate tactics as the state’s Insurance Commissioner). The Chamber also paid for pro-Reichert ads in 2006 (including some that had to be pulled for containing factual misrepres… um, well, lies).

Here’s the new Reichert spot that’s moving into heavy rotation, complete with the ritual invocation of “higher taxes”:

UPDATE: Burner is set to debut not one but two new TV spots of her own: here and here.

PPP (10/4-5, likely voters, 9/28-29 in parens):

Bev Perdue (D): 46 (41)

Pat McCrory (R): 43 (44)

Michael Munger (L): 4 (5)

(MoE: ±2.8%)

After losing her lead in PPP’s poll last week (the pollster who has usually been most favorable to her), Democratic Lt. Governor Bev Perdue slips back into the lead in the race for North Carolina’s open gubernatorial seat. We could be seeing more lifting of all Democratic boats in the wake of financial chaos (especially the takeover of NC-based Wachovia). Or, bearing in mind that this same sample gave Obama a 6-point lead and Kay Hagan a jaw-dropping 9-point lead, PPP might have had a particularly Dem-favorable sample this week.

PPP also polled some of the races for North Carolina’s Council of State. Democrats Beth Wood and Elaine Marshall lead their races for Auditor and Secretary of State, respectively, by rather comfortable margins, while Ronnie Ansley trails Republican Steve Troxler by 2 in the Ag Commissioner race.

Princeton Survey Research for Minneapolis Star Tribune (9/30-10/2, likely voters, 9/10-12 in parentheses):

Al Franken (D): 43 (37)

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 34 (41)

Dean Barkley (IP): 18 (13)

(MoE: ±3.7%)

OK, the Minnesota senate race is officially making my head hurt. In the last 24 hours, we’ve seen a SurveyUSA poll give Coleman an unbeatable 10-point edge and a Dem internal give Franken a fragile 2-point edge… and now Minnesota’s principal newspaper (the Star Tribune) finds a 9-point lead for Franken, a huge turnaround from a 4-point Coleman lead two weeks ago during the height of Palinmania.

Like the SurveyUSA poll, this poll sees Barkley taking a bigger chunk out of the electorate. Interestingly, though, in this poll Barkley seems to be taking an equal bite out of each party: Franken and Coleman both get the support of 78% of their respective party members, while 12% of both Republicans and Democrats support Barkley. Instead, the real source of Franken’s success in this poll seems to be Coleman’s job approval rating, which has drifted down into Gordon Smith territory at 38%.

The presidential race numbers from the Star Tribune poll won’t be released until Sunday, but somehow I suspect they’ll be a bit better than the 1-point McCain lead that SUSA just reported.