Author: DavidNYC

(I’m bumping this one up. Not a single map as yet? Come on, people! – promoted by DavidNYC)

So Politico has some details about an incumbent protection map that’s supposedly been agreed to in Virginia:

Members of Virginia’s House delegation unanimously agreed to a redistricting plan that will protect all of their seats and strengthen the three GOP freshmen who ousted Democratic incumbents last November, POLITICO has learned.

The new map, according to multiple sources in both parties who are familiar with the plan, was crafted in the past month chiefly by Virginia’s eight GOP members. But it has received crucial private support from the state’s three House Democrats – notably Rep. Gerry Connolly, who barely survived reelection last November and whose Capitol Beltway-area district would get a Democratic bump.

The delegation is hoping for legislative approval in three weeks when the politically divided General Assembly convenes a special session.

So here’s the contest: Though the details are sketchy, draw what you think this map might look like using Dave’s Redistricting App. Make sure to read the entire Politico piece – most of the details are on the second page. Dave Wasserman has some ideas (here and here), but what are yours?

UPDATE: Looks like we have three entries so far: sawolf, okiedem, and drobertson. Whaddya think?

Dist.	Incumbent	Approve	Dis- approve	Support Recall	Oppose Recall	Vote Incumbent	Vote Democrat	Number of Responses
2	Rob Cowles	32	40	36	39	45	43	2,199
8	Alberta Darling	51	42	38	54	52	44	1,333
10	Sheila Harsdorf	43	43	38	47	48	44	2,385
14	Luther Olsen	32	42	40	39	47	49	2,307
18	Randy Hopper	38	47	44	33	44	49	2,550
20	Glenn Grothman	49	30	28	53	60	32	2,561
28	Mary Lazich	35	29	26	44	56	34	2,471
32	Dan Kapanke	41	55	52	44	41	55	2,759

• AZ-Sen: This is amusingly insane. I’m certainly all for it!

• CA-Sen: Our long national nightmare is finally over: Meg Whitman says she will “definitely not” run against Sen. Diane Feinstein (D) next year. Rather, she says she’s going to spend time campaigning for fellow rich guy Mitt Romney. (Also, here’s an amusing tidbit: Earlier this year, she joined the board of none other than Hewlett-Packard – the company her 2010 Republican ticket-mate Carly Fiorina nearly ran into the ground.)

• CT-Sen: In an interesting development, fans of magical realism have been making a push for Borges to enter the Connecticut Senate race. Ah, wait. What’s that? Fuck. So, um, former state Treasurer Frank Borges (D), who left office in 1993, says supporters are asking him to run, and while’s he’s thinking about it, he’s set no timetable for a decision. Borges is CEO of a private equity firm (so I’m guessing he’s pretty rich), and he’d be the state’s first black senator if successful.

• FL-Sen: Rep. Vern Buchanan (R) is starting to sound like a “no” for the Senate race. Now that he’s scored a spot on the Ways & Means Committee, he says he’s less likely to seek a promotion. In fact, he very explicitly said: “If this hadn’t happened, I would have been looking to do something else.” That sort of talk has to make you figure that the GOP’s takeover of the House has actually been bad news for one Republican: NRSC chair John Cornyn.

In much sillier (and related) news, Cornyn told The Hill that he had tried to recruit former congressman and current MSNBC host Joe Scarborough to run against Bill Nelson. Undoubtedly, this made make Rep. Connie Mack a little hot under the collar, because the NRSC wigged out and Cornyn weirdly tried to claim the story was “not true,” even though Scarborough confirmed it. Rather, said Cornyn, he had been asking Joescar about a potential Senate run in… New York. (The Atlanta-born, Alabama-educated, Florida-elected Scarborough’s tv show is based in NYC.) Then, the NRSC took a dump on Joe, saying: “There are already a number of far stronger candidates looking at the Florida Senate race….” Whoops!

Also, there’s a tenative Biden alert! – the VPOTUS supposedly will come down to Florida later this month to raise money for Bill Nelson.

• IA-Sen: Wingnut Bob Vander Plaats, who did surprisingly well against now-Gov. Terry Branstad in last year’s Republican gubernatorial primary (with an assist from some Democratic ratfuckers), was asked whether he’s contemplating a run against Sen. Tom Harkin in 2014. Said BVP: “I think about it daily. That doesn’t mean I’m going to run against him, Ok. I don’t know.”

• IN-Sen: Now this is fucking interesting. I’m just going to let SSP commenter Bob Bobson summarize the situation:

WISH-TV’s Jim Shella noted on his blog today that that there exists a hypothetical but plausible scenario in which state Democrats could sue to overturn the results of last year’s election for Secretary of State by arguing that Charlie White wasn’t a valid candidate for office. That’s not really anything new, and has been rumored in the Hoosier political press for a while.

What is new here is that Shella points out that such a lawsuit, were it ruled in favor of the Democrats, wouldn’t just remove White from office, but would also make the Republicans a “minor party” under state law. SSPers probably remember the whole [10]% threshold thing from the Colorado governor’s race last year where Dan Maes’ trainwreck candidacy nearly cost the Colorado Republicans their ballot position as a major party, and there’s a similar regulation at play here. The difference is that in Indiana, it’s the Secretary of State race that decides which parties are “major,” and the threshold is [also] 10%. If White’s candidacy is invalidated, though, that could mean that the Republicans, legally, received zero votes in the SoS race last year.

That outcome would also mean that their nominating process for statewide candidates for the next four years would be via convention and not primary. And that means Dick Lugar becomes the next Bob Bennett.

In related news, Sean Keefer, who as Deputy Secretary of State was no. 2 to Charlie White (and also served as his chief of staff, and before that, as his campaign manager) just resigned, and there’s a report that White’s spokesman will also quit. Even better: White staged a totally bizarro impromptu press conference on the courthouse steps after a hearing in which he pleaded not guilty to all charges. The presser only ended after White’s attorney told him to “shut up” and led him away by the elbow. Fun times!

• MA-Sen: Deborah Shah, a consultant to Newton Mayor Setti Warren, sent around an email (I’m guessing to some listservs) looking for college kids interested in working on a potential Warren Senate campaign, set to be staffing up at the end of April. (Aren’t most students stressing about finals at that point?) Shah says that “This is just the first step to make sure you’re prepared.”

• MI-Sen: Pete Hoekstra hasn’t yet said if one of these days a Congressman from Michigan’s gonna come back home and run a Senate race, but he expects to decide this spring. One tea leaf suggests he’s rather stay focused on his lame-ass-looking consulting firm: He just shuttered his House campaign account, which he could have instantly turned into a Senate fund.

• OH-Sen: In response to ex-Gov. Ted Strickland calling him “scurrilous,” “bigoted,” “reprehensible,” and “laughable,” the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports that Republican state Treasurer Josh Mandel “said Strickland is a good person.” Maybe that makes Mandel look big, I dunno, but does it also make him look like a wuss to his biggest supporters, the teabag contingent? At the same q-and-a with other GOP elected officials, SoS Jon Husted (who has declined a run) said he’d like to see Mandel take on Sherrod Brown, while AG (and ex-Sen.) Mike DeWine much more amusingly said that a Brown-Mandel matchup would be “fascinating.” Is that Mr. Spock fascinating, or a trainwreck fascinating?

• AZ-08: Rep. Gabby Giffords’ doctors gave an update on the congresswoman’s recovery on Friday, and they sounded very upbeat about her progress (though they noted that it’s not a sure thing whether she’ll attend her husband’s space shuttle launch next month, contra what a staffer said last week). Meanwhile, 2010 Republican candidate Jesse Kelly, who very nearly beat Giffords, set up a new campaign committee for a potential rematch.

• CA-37: Though Rep. Laura Richardson (D) previously denied it, a letter of resignation sent by her former district scheduler suggests that the congresswoman is indeed the subject of an ethics probe, pertaining to misuse of staff. Now Richardson’s office is simply refusing to comment. The staffer’s letter is really brutal, citing “constant verbal and emotional abuse” and requests that she perform tasks “on the ethical borderline.” I can’t imagine Richardson has a very long future in Congress (she originally won office in a 2007 special with just 37% of the primary vote in this very blue district), so who do you think could replace her?

• NM-01, NM-Sen: State Sen. Eric Griego (D), who is considering a run for the House if fellow Dem Martin Heinrich decides to go for the Senate race, says he expects “the smoke to clear” by April or May, in terms of people making decisions about what they’re gonna do.

• NV-02: Jon Ralston says that retired Navy Commander Kirk Lippold is “in” the race for Nevada’s 2nd congressional district, which ought to have a very interesting GOP primary, at the least. Lippold, who was captain of the USS Cole when it was bombed by Al Qaeda a decade ago, was touted as a possible challenger to Harry Reid last year.

• NV-03: Freshman Rep. Joe Heck was the only Republican to vote against defunding the Federal Housing Administration Refinance Program (designed to help homeowners with underwater mortgages). Anticipating criticism, he put out a video press release (an actual video press release, not a “tv ad with a tiny buy designed to get free media attention”) defending his vote. Could Heck be worried about getting teabagged?

• NY-26: Republican nominee Jane Corwin just received the Independence Party’s nomination for the special election as well, and ya know, this is a pretty darn good demonstration of why the Democrats’ dithering on selecting a candidate has been a pretty dumb move. I mean, even if the IP wanted to endorse a Dem, they couldn’t! (Or at least, couldn’t do so yet.)

Anyhow, 2010 NY-Sen-A GOP primary loser (in other words, the guy who couldn’t beat the guy who got vaporized by Chuck Schumer) Gary Bernsten sent out an email asking supporters to help teabagger David Bellavia petition his way on to the ballot as an independent. I’d be surprised if this effort is successful, though – Bellavia has only until March 19 to collection 3,500 signatures. Crazy Jack Davis is doing the same thing, but at least he has a shot, since he’s putting his millions to work for him.

• SD-AL: I linked this story in the Pete Hoekstra item above (see MI-Sen), but ex-Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin has also closed her campaign account, suggesting that Steve Israel’s efforts to woo her into a rematch with Republican Kristi Noem haven’t been successful. The Fix has a long list of other Dems (and a few Repubs) who have shut down their FEC committees – click the link for the rest.

• TX-LG: Texas Ag. Comm’r Todd Staples isn’t ruling out a run for Lt. Gov., a seat which could become open if the current occupant, David Dewhurst, wins Kay Bailey Hutchison’s Senate seat. Other possible aspirants include Comptroller Susan Combs and Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson. (And yes, since this is Texas and everyone I just mentioned holds statewide office, that means they’re all Republicans.) While you might be wondering why we’re going so far down into the weeds here, the LG job is considered one of the most powerful in Texas (some like to say even more powerful that the governor’s), because the LG is also President of the state Senate.

• Wisconsin Recall: The DLCC just launched a TV ad against GOP state Sen. Luther Olsen, attacking him for flip-flopping to support Scott Walker’s anti-union legislation – though it does not mention anything about the recall effort which Olsen is (among others) the subject of. The ad (which you can watch here) is running in Green Bay, and a spokesman tells me that the buy is “about 1000 points.”

Also, check out this piece from the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Craig Gilbert, which begins:

Number of state lawmakers removed from office by recall in all of American history: 13.

Number of state lawmakers currently facing recall campaigns in Wisconsin: 16.

• Hawaii: In order to avoid another Charles Djou, the Hawaii House just passed a bill to institute instant runoff voting (aka IRV) for special Congressional elections. Of course, they could just hold primaries instead of jungle elections.

• WATN?: Scott Lee Cohen, the disastrous Lt. Gov. candidate whose utterly failed gubernatorial bid probably saved Pat Quinn’s ass, is hoping to replace ex-state Sen. Rickey Hendon, who resigned last month. Given that the replacement gets picked by a panel of Chicago Democratic Party committeemen, I’m guessing that Cohen’s chances are somewhere between zero and nil.

Redistricting Roundup:

• Idaho: At least one local expert is confirming what we observed last week: population shrinkage in the 2nd CD will likely require it to absorb the entire city of Boise, which is currently split between the state’s two districts.

• New Jersey: Richard Lee has some interesting historical details about the 1990 round of redistricting, focusing on two politicians who are still part of New Jersey’s congressional delegation today: Rep. Frank Pallone and Sen. Bob Menendez. Menendez’s federal career was launched when New Jersey’s loss of a seat led to the creation of an Hispanic-friendly district. Pallone, meanwhile, was targeted for elimination by his own party. Said one Republican: “I’d like to see Mr. Pallone defeated. But apparently I don’t want to see him defeated as much as the Democrats do.” Obviously, Pallone lived to fight another day.

Meanwhile, Rutgers Prof. (and state redistricting tiebreak vote) Alan Rosenthal supposedly put out a memo outlining his vision for a fair legislative map, reportedly leading state Dems to believe their vision is much more closely aligned with Rosenthal’s than is the Republicans’. But it doesn’t seem like this memo, if it exists, has been released online.

Public Policy Polling (PDF) (3/3-6, Missouri voters, Dec. 2010 in parens):

Jay Nixon (D-inc): 45 (47)

Peter Kinder (R): 38 (39)

Undecided: 17 (14)

(MoE: ±4.0%)

Tom notes that Nixon is unusually popular – and has unusual crossover appeal:

Nixon has well above average approval numbers for a Governor in our polling, with 47% of voters happy with the job he’s doing to 31% who express disapproval of him. Nixon’s numbers have an unusual pattern by party. Only 60% of Democrats like what he’s doing while 24% disapprove. That’s a tepid level of support from within his own party. But he has almost as many Republicans – 32% – who approve of his performance as there are – 40% – who are unhappy. It’s rare to see any politician come that close to breaking even across party lines. And he has very solid numbers with independents as well at a 48/26 spread.

These numbers, while great, are still a good bit removed from those absurdly gaudy POS numbers that showed Nixon with a 61-26 approval rating. I’m much more inclined to believe PPP’s numbers. Kinder’s favorables, I should point out, are just 25-24, but half the state still doesn’t know him, so he has upside. Tom also points out that Nixon’s lead with independents is just 3%, a far cry from the 30+ he beat Kenny Hulshof by in 2008. So I think you gotta give the edge to Nixon, but just given that this is Missouri here, it looks like it’ll be competitive.

• AZ-Sen: I had sort of forgotten that J.D. Hayworth had said he was interested in running for Jon Kyl’s seat, but yeah, there he was, chatting up The Hill yesterday, and telling them that Jeff Flake has “delusions.” Jeff Flake is the one with the delusions? Anyhow, Hayworth refused to offer a timetable for his decision, and believe it or not, there’s actually one guy who cares: Joe Arpaio. As you’ll recall, the dipshit sheriff flip-flopped the other day and said that yeah, he’d like to continue pretending he’s interested in the race, but now he’s also saying that he’ll wait for Hayworth’s decision first. I’m not sure anyone has ever shown J.D. this much respect before!

• IN-Sen: Not only has Dick Lugar given no indication that he’s interested in running as an independent, but his flip-flopping cave on the House GOP budget bill is, to me, evidence that he plans to terminate his political life as a member of the Republican Party. Still, for fun, the National Journal looked at what it would take for Loogs to make the ballot as an indie. He’d need 35,000 signatures (2% of the vote cast in the most recent SoS election) – but he’d also have to drop out of the GOP primary, as Indiana has a so-called “sore loser” law which prevents someone who loses a primary from running in the general.

You might have also heard about newly-discovered issues Lugar’s voter registration. It came to light a few weeks ago that Lugar typically lives in a hotel in Indianapolis when he returns home (which reminds me a lot of Indiana’s other senator, Dan Coats, who preferred to spend his time in North Carolina). It also turns out that Lugar is registered to vote using the address of an old family home which was sold years ago. The senator’s spokesperson probably should have said something other than Lugar “remains a Hoosier in the eyes of the law.”

• MA-Sen: Newton Mayor Setti Warren told Wicked Local that he’ll make a decision on a Senate run “sometime in the spring.” (There words, not his.)

• MT-Sen: For those of you carping about the lack of Montana stories in the digest, here’s one: the Montana Retail Association and the Montana Convenience Store Association are running radio ads against Jon Tester, to, as Roll Call puts it, “dissuade him from delaying reforms to the debit card “swipe fees” that are scheduled to go into effect later this year.” NWOTSOTB (that’s No Word On The Size Of The Buy – remember it), but this ad seems much more genuinely issued-focused rather than some kind of attempt to bolster Tester’s opponent, Republican Rep. Denny Rehberg.

• MO-Sen: Ben Smith writes: “The questions around McCaskill’s flights are likely to be an issue in McCaskill’s re-election campaign next year.” Here, let me fix that for you: “The questions around McCaskill’s flights are likely to be made a fake non-issue by sensationalists like Ben Smith in McCaskill’s re-election campaign next year.” Hope that helps!

• NM-Sen: Well, someone at Roll Call is sleeping on concrete tonight: Lt. Gov. John Sanchez reportedly will not announce a decision about a Senate run until after the legislative session. That’s soon, though: March 19th.

• TX-Sen: John Cornyn says he won’t endorse in the very crowded field to replace Kay Bailey Hutchison. Local Republicans also say he isn’t engaging in any behind-the-scenes favoritism either.

• VA-Sen: Does anyone else remember the AP’s Charles Babington saying, back on Feb. 25th, that Tim Kaine would decide on a Senate run “within a week”? You should, because it was in the digest. But not, apparently, in real life, since the mind-numbingly painful Tim Kaine goes on (and on, and on). I think the Beltway media just have a particular fascination with this one, since Kaine is a DC figure and his next-door state always looms large. Annnyhow, Timmeh is attending a dinner in honor of ex-Rep. Rick Boucher in southwestern VA this weekend, but “an official who can speak for Kaine” tells Roll Call that her (his?) boss won’t be making any announcements this weekend. Just give us Tom Perriello already!

• AZ-Gov: Just watch the video and enjoy.

• LA-Gov: It’s from last week, but the New York Times had a good story on the dodgy campaign finance practices of the allegedly incorruptible (but obviously not) Bobby Jindal. If you are, say, a big telecommunications firm or an oil-and-gas giant and want to receive special treatment from the state of Louisiana, and you know contributions to the governor’s re-election campaign are capped at a measly five grand, you just make a plus-sized gift to Jindal’s wife’s charity and bam! there you go. Full details on this sordid practice at the link. Best ethics laws, my ass.

• OH-Gov, OH-17: Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan has been amping up his populist attacks on Gov. John Kasich and the Ohio GOP’s anti-labor and anti-middle class agenda (with the centerpiece being a the right-to-work piece of legislation known as SB5). Associates say he’s potentially gearing up for a run against Kasich in 2014, and notably, he’s being advised by ex-Gov. Ted Strickland. One Democratic operative speculates, though, that perhaps Ryan is trying to warn the GOP away from fucking with his district lines too much this year: if they forcibly turn him out of office in 2012, the 39-year-old Ryan will definitely be looking for a new job in 2014.

• WI-Gov: The Hotline asked Russ Feingold if he’d consider running against Scott Walker in a hypothetical recall election next year. An aide gave a typical non-answer, suggesting Feingold isn’t ruling it out, but noting that he’s teaching at Marquette Law School and writing a book at the moment.

• AZ-08: Hopefully this is a sign that Rep. Gabby Giffords’ recovery is going well: Not only will her husband, astronaut Mark Kelly, go up on the space shuttle next month (this long-planned mission is his last chance to do so before the shuttle fleet is retired), but she’ll be there to watch the launch.

• NV-02: Two scoops of plump juicy raisins for the Nevada News Bureau yesterday. First, they announced that Rep. Dean Heller (R) would be getting into the Senate race. Now they’re following up with a report that, according to their sources, state Sen. Mark Amodei (R) will run for the 2nd district seat. You may recall that Amodei, who is also the GOP state party chair, briefly ran for the Senate last year before realizing he didn’t stand a chance against Chicken Lady and Crazy Lady.

• PA-15: The conservative David Koch front group Americans for Prosperity is running radio ads (NWOTSOTB) in GOP Rep. Charlie Dent’s district, in the hopes of “encouraging” him not to stray from the Republican pack and start voting against signature agenda items in a bid to preserve his so-called “moderate” voting record. I like this, because pressure on GOP “moderates” in the 2005-08 timeframe helped deliver a number of seats to us. Hopefully the same pattern will pick up once again now that Republicans have the majority in the House and start acting recklessly.

• Wisconsin Recall: MoveOn has leaked some data from two Wisconsin polls SurveyUSA took for the group. MoveOn tested a generic recall question against two Republican state senators: Randy Hopper and Dan Kapanke. Only 43% said they’d vote for Hopper, while 54% said “someone else”; for Kapanke, it was 41-57. Since I know you’ve bookmarked SSP’s indispensible post that shows presidential election results by senate district, then you’re aware that Kapanke sits in the bluest district, while Hopper won by the narrowest margin in 2008 (just 0.2% – a result which was the subject of a recount).

Meanwhile, Dave Weigel notes that four liberal groups – MoveOn, the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, Democracy for America, and Daily Kos – have raised almost $2 million in support of the recall efforts.

• WI Sup. Ct.: As it happens, there’s another really important race going on in Wisconsin right now: a Democrat, JoAnne Kloppenburg, is challenging Republican state Supreme Court Justice David Prosser. The race is technically non-partisan, but Prosser used to be the Republican state House Majority Leader. More importantly, if Kloppenburg were to win, she’d shift the balance on the court from 3-4 to 4-3 in our favor, which could be crucial if the court is called upon to rule on any of Scott Walker’s legislative thuggery.

Redistricting Roundup:

• Mississippi: Yeah, this is definitely an example of saying the quiet part loud.

• Redistricting: While devoted Swingnuts will be familiar with much of this list, Aaron Blake has a good roundup of members of Congress who are potential redistricting victims – and who are deciding whether they’d rather jump (to another elective office) or get pushed (into oblivion).

According to the Nevada News Bureau:

Two reliable sources have confirmed that Congressman Dean Heller said this week he is definitely committed to running in the U.S. Senate race. Heller’s office would not confirm the news this morning when contacted.

Heller’s decision comes as no surprise on the tail of Senator John Ensign’s announcement Monday not to seek a third term. Heller had already signaled his ambitions when his office leaked an internal poll last month showing he was the strongest candidate in a GOP field (that included Ensign) by a 15-point margin.

Jon Ralston also confirms:

Heller is in and has been since he got poll back. They have not set official announce date. But sooner because of Ensign exit.

Sharron Angle, you know you want to.

Looks like we – and by we, I mean they – will have a serious fight on our hands:

New Mexico Lt. Gov. John Sanchez is poised to join former Rep. Heather Wilson in the Republican primary for the Land of Enchantment’s open Senate seat, according to GOP sources. The move sets up the likelihood of heated GOP primary that could test the loyalties of newly elected Gov. Susana Martinez (R).

Sanchez, who is putting together a campaign team and plans a trip to Washington, D.C., later this month, ran on a ticket with Martinez in their successful 2010 campaign.

Sanchez obviously wants to present himself as the “true conservative” alternative to the apostate Wilson, but he’s not an especially impressive figure and thus he might not be the last person to enter the race. Teabaggers are rarely satisfied with establishment types, even archetypally wingnutty ones, so I could see a “true, TRUE conservative” also trying to make a go of it.

Sanchez does have one important attribute: money. In fact, he’s self-funded most of his campaigns. Of course, this is a two-edged sword – the sort of laziness that’s borne of self-funding can really hurt you in a low-turnout primary where grassroots excitement is a key factor. When people give money to your campaign, they are also buying in to it. You create a cadre of individuals who really care about the outcome and will often do more than just donate a single time. We’ll see whether Sanchez understands this.

UPDATE: Grr – looks like the fight right now is actually between Roll Call and The Hill. The latter publication is taking exception to the former’s initial report, saying:

New Mexico Republicans expect the Senate primary field to grow, but an associate close to Lt. Gov. John Sanchez (R) said an announcement about his intentions isn’t “imminent.” …

A report on Thursday indicated that Sanchez was “poised” to enter the race. But a close associate of the lt. governor called that “premature.”

“Expectations of an imminent announcement are premaure,” the associate of Sanchez told The Ballot Box, noting the Republican was focused on the current legislative session, which runs through noon on March 19.

• CA-Sen: We can probably rule out another Senate run by Chuck DeVore: he’s setting his sights lower… much, much lower. Chuck D is, in fact, forming an exploratory committee for Orange County’s Third District Board of Supervisors. An exploratory committee!

Somewhat related, yet another chart from Greg Giroux: The most recent Gov, Sen, and Pres numbers by CD in California, as well as key demographics highlights from the new census data.

• MA-Sen: And yet another Greg Giroux special. (If you’re not following this guy on Twitter, you are using Twitter wrong.) Alan Khazei (D) has formed a 527 exploratory committee “for a potential run for public office.” I’m not exactly clear, though, on why it’s a 527 rather than a normal FEC exploratory committee.

• MD-Sen: Remember when Dick Cheney ran the Republican operation to choose a vice presidential candidate in 2000… and picked himself? GOPer Eric Wargotz has managed to come up with an even more pathetic form of self-love: He’s created his own “Draft Eric Wargotz” page on Facebook. In case the name doesn’t ring a bell, he was 26-point roadkill for Barbara Mikulski last cycle, but now he wants the public to rapturously embrace a run against Maryland’s other Democratic senator, Ben Cardin. (By the way, this is my favorite comment so far.)

• ME-Sen: I meant to mention this in yesterday’s post on PPP’s poll, but in any event, state House Minority Leader Emily Cain (D), all of thirty years old and already on the verge of being term-limited out, isn’t ruling out a run against Olympia Snowe, but says it probably won’t happen. Even though she’s just barely eligible to run under the constitution, she’d has a bitchin’ campaign theme song just waiting to get rocked out.

• MO-Sen: I had a feeling things might wind up moving in this direction. Jan. 27:

However, the offices of Republican Reps. Blaine Luetkemeyer and Todd Akin told Roll Call that the Congressmen are not interested in running for the Senate.

Feb. 26:

“Some people want to draft me for Senate but you know engineers. It’s just one thing at a time,” said Akin, an engineer.

Mar. 9:

“I haven’t discounted it,” [Akin] told The Ballot Box on Tuesday night. “Some things you sort of put on your problem shelf and you know you’re going to deal with it at some time. It’s just one of those things that I’ve got to work through.

Todd Akin can’t resist the siren song of the Senate race – not with the field of damaged Republican B-listers gathering on the misty plains of Missouri. Just one question: Is “problem shelf” common engineer-speak, or is Akin just a special brand of dweeb?

As for this, it seems like classic Politico ginned-up b.s. So Claire McCaskill spends less taxpayer money on air travel than Kit Bond or Jim Talent, but because Politico makes a big deal out of her using a plane she co-owns with a group of investors, it becomes campaign fodder. Hopefully, with McCaskill saying she’ll reimburse Treasury for the costs, this’ll be a one-day story, unless Politico decides this move makes her look “guilty” (of what, I don’t know).

• NV-Sen: Rep. Shelley Berkley says she’s doing some polling right now and is still on track to make a decision in late spring/early summer. (I guess that’s somewhere between May 1 and August 1.) Berkley also reports that she’s been in contact with all the members of the B Team – Secretary of State Ross Miller, Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto and State Treasurer Kate Marshall – and: “They all said the exact same thing, ‘We’re waiting on you, we love you and then we’ll make our decision.'”

• OH-Sen: Usually I ignore politicians when they comment on races – most of what they say is clueless or canned. But I love Ted Strickland, and you’ll love his incredulous reaction when he was asked what he thought of the possibility of GOP state Treasurer Josh Mandel challenging Sen. Sherrod Brown. Said Teddy Ballgame: “Give me a break, that is laughable. I don’t think that would be a contest at all.” And he went on from there – click through for the rest. (Incidentally, I came across this amusing tidbit thanks to the Google: Back in 2006, when running for state Rep., Mandel refused to say whether he was supporting Republican gubernatorial nominee Ken Blackwell – or, yeah, Ted Strickland.)

• WI-Sen: This is just so mega-weird I won’t bother trying to summarize:

When questioned about his reelection plans by National Journal Tuesday, 76-year-old Sen. Herb Kohl (D-Wis.) asked, “Am I running?” He then shrugged, wordlessly. Kohl then asked “are you are a reporter?” Told “yes,” he walked away without a word.

In response to further media inquiries, an undoubtedly groaning staffer said that Kohl “will announce his decision later this year” as to whether he’ll run again. What worries me the most, honestly, is DSCC chair Patty Murray’s response to questions about Wisconsin’s very senior senator: “Herb’s just great.” Really, this is the kind of thing a committee leader needs to be on top of. There are ways to evade questions (“I know Herb is still making up his mind”), and then there are ways to just look evasive – and this is the latter.

• WV-Sen: Yep, like I said, long two years.

• CT-Gov, CT-Sen: Quinnipiac has approvals for Gov. Dan Malloy (35-40), Sen. Joe Lieberman (38-45), Sen. Richard Blumenthal (49-25), Barack Obama (49-47). That last number in particular seems rather low to me. I wonder what Quinnipiac’s sample composition is… but they ain’t sharin’.

• ME-Gov: A Republican state senator proposed a state constitutional amendment which would institute gubernatorial run-offs if no candidate got a majority of the vote on election day (something that has happened in four of the the last five gov races). The bill would have a high hurdle to become law, though – two-thirds of the legislature would have to vote for it, and it would also have to go before voters.

• NJ-01: Rep. Rob Andrews, as though dipped in the cranberry bogs of the Pine Barrens, has renewed his soul and emerged as that unlikeliest of legislators: a Nancy Pelosi ally. Andrews was best known for dodgy behavior and fratricidal tendencies, but a period in the wilderness after his humiliation at the hands of Frank Lautenberg has apparently turned him into a better man. Read the article for the complete picture.

• NM-01: Former state Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones, who gave up her House seat in a failed bid for the GOP gubernatorial nomination last year, says she’s forming an exploratory committee to look at a challenge to Rep. Martin Heinrich. Heinrich is considering a run for Senate (something Arnold-Jones was also looking at), so she may have an opportunity for an open-seat run if that happens. Arnold-Jones staged an abortive bid for this seat the last time it was open, in 2008.

• NY-26: Good news! We finally have a date for the special election to replace ex-Rep. Chris Lee: May 24th. Even better news! Democrats are finally getting their act together and will be interviewing short-listed candidates this week and next. Those names: Erie County Clerk Kathy Hochul; Amherst town council member Mark Manna; former Amherst Town supervisor Satish Mohan; and Some Dudes Robert Stall, Martin Minemier, Jane Bauch, and Diana Voit. Meanwhile, teabagger David Bellavia says he’s still considering petitioning his way on to the ballot as an independent, but the clock is fast running down.

• Wisconsin Recall: So the Republicans running the rump of the Wisconsin state Senate managed to pass (or think they’ve passed) their union-busting measures without the need for a quorum. (Read the link for the full procedural run-down.) The lone no vote was Dale Schultz, who isn’t elligible for recall this year but does sit in one of the two-bluest districts held by a Republican, according to SSP’s now-seminal analysis.

• NY-St. Sen: The frogs get marched out one by one, hurrah, hurrah! The frogs get marched out one by one, hurrah – hurrah! Scumdog state Sen. Carl Kruger (D, sadly) just turned himself in to the FBI on corruption charges. Among Kruger’s many sins, he threatened to caucus with the Republicans in after the Democrats won back the chamber for the first time in generations back in 2008. He also voted against the gay marriage bill that came up late in 2009. Unfortunately, Kruger holds the second-reddest seat in the entire state (amazingly enough, though, it’s 45% Obama, thanks to the GOP’s awesome gerrymander). If he steps down, it’ll be an exceptionally difficult hold, though, since Dems control very few seats where Obama did worse than 60%.

• Maps: The Atlantic has a cool interactive map featuring the “12 States of America” – the US, broken up at the county level into varying socio-economic groupings (with cutesy names, of course).

• Special Elections: Johnny Longtorso is now contributing special election results wrap-ups:

In Arkansas HD-24, Republican Bruce Cozart emerged victorious by a 60-40 margin. Tennessee’s SD-18 was no surprise, with a 2-1 margin for Republican Kerry Roberts. In California’s AD-04, the lone Democrat, Dennis Campanale, made it into first place, albeit with only around 32%, and will face Republican Beth Gaines, who squeaked past fellow Republican John Allard by a 1% margin (22.5 to 21.5), in the May runoff. [The first CA race to feature a run-off under the new top-two system. – David]

Also, a quick shout-out to the newest member of the Tennessee House (HD-98), Democrat Antonio “2 Shay” Parkinson, and the newest member of the Virginia House of Delegates (HD-91), Republican Gordon Helsel, both of whom were unopposed on Tuesday.

• State Leges: Louis Jacobson of Governing magazine has an interesting look at various proposals in several states to shrink the sizes of their respective legislatures. However, if history is any guide, most of these won’t go anywhere.

Redistricting Roundup:

• New Jersey: Patrick Murray, the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, has put together a couple of proposed legislative maps, one that he calls a “constitutional” map, the other, a “competitive” map.

• Virginia: This seems like a pretty good deal, if you ask me:

Senate Majority Leader Richard “Dick” Saslaw said on a Northern Virginia radio show the other day that he had reached a “gentleman’s agreement” with Republican leaders in the House on how to go about redistricting the state….

“I’m not gonna interfere with the lines the House draws for the House,” he said. “And they’re not gonna interfere with the lines I draw for the Senate.”

Dems hold the Senate, and the GOP holds the House and the governor’s mansion, so I’ll take it.

• Wisconsin: Aaron Blake has another good entry in his redistricting series, though the bottom line is that even though Republicans control the process, they don’t have a great deal of ability to improve life for themselves. One thought that I had: If the recall effort in the WI Senate is successful, then Dems could suddenly give themselves a seat at the redistricting table where they had none before. Verrry interesting.

Public Policy Polling (PDF) (3/3-6, “usual” Maine Republican primary voters, no trendlines):

Olympia Snowe (R-inc): 43

Scott D’Amboise (R): 18

Andrew Ian Dodge (R): 10

Undecided: 28

Olympia Snowe (R-inc): 33

Republican Jesus (R): 58

Undecided: 9

(MoE: ±4.7%)

I agree with Tom: These numbers are not good for Snowe, not at all. D’Amboise and Dodge are truly at Some Dude levels, with only 5% and 2% (two percent!) favorables respectively, and yet the incumbent manages to score only 43% of primary voters. Moreover, as Tom reminds us, “Lisa Murkowski’s approval with Republicans in January of 2010 was 77/13 and Mike Castle’s in March of 2009 at an identical point in the cycle was 69/24.” As I’ve been saying all along, if the Tea Party Express or the Club for Growth throws down here, Snowe is in a heap of trouble. (By the way, “Republican Jesus” is the technical term for what PPP calls “a more conservative challenger.”)

This is all very poignant for Snowe, because, look:

Public Policy Polling (PDF) (3/3-6, Maine voters, no trendlines):

Emily Cain (D): 20

Olympia Snowe (R-inc): 64

Undecided: 16

Rosa Scarcelli (D): 18

Olympia Snowe (R-inc): 66

Undecided: 17

Emily Cain (D): 33

Scott D’Amboise (R): 33

Undecided: 34

Rosa Scarcelli (D): 29

Scott D’Amboise (R): 36

Undecided: 35

Emily Cain (D): 32

Andrew Ian Dodge (R): 30

Undecided: 37

Rosa Scarcelli (D): 29

Andrew Ian Dodge (R): 33

Undecided: 38

(MoE: ±2.8%)

Those are some massive numbers for an incumbent in a swing state. And note the crossover appeal – Emily Cain, for instance, does 13 points better against the nobodies (fellow nobodies?) than she does against Snowe. Yet Snowe might not even get the chance to have this fight. But like Yoda said, there is another….

Emily Cain (D): 17

Scott D’Amboise (R): 21

Olympia Snowe (I): 54

Undecided: 7

Rosa Scarcelli (D): 15

Scott D’Amboise (R): 20

Olympia Snowe (I): 56

Undecided: 9

Emily Cain (D): 15

Andrew Ian Dodge (R): 19

Olympia Snowe (I): 56

Undecided: 10

Rosa Scarcelli (D): 13

Andrew Ian Dodge (R): 19

Olympia Snowe (I): 57

Undecided: 10

(MoE: ±2.8%)

In this hypothetical scenario where Snowe runs as an independent, she also posts huge numbers, peeling from both sides. I’ll turn it over to Tom once more to provide the closing words:

If Snowe continues on as a Republican this is a race that an ambitious Democrat who doesn’t have a ton to lose should really look at. Obviously if Snowe emerges as the Republican nominee you’re going to lose and you’re going to lose by a lot. If Snowe ends up running as an independent you’re probably going to lose and you’re probably going to lose by a lot. But if Snowe stays the course and gets taken out you might become Chris Coons – a guy who was willing to throw his name in the hat when it looked impossible and ended up coasting to an easy general election victory.

For Snowe there’s a hard route to reelection and an easy one – it’ll be interesting to see if she sticks with the hard one.

• AZ-Sen: Fuck this guy.

• FL-Sen: Remember George LeMieux? I do, but only barely. Anyhow, some reporter he spoke with says now that an announcement for a Senate run “is imminent, and could come within a few weeks.” The article says basically the same thing about former state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner, but we’ll see when we see.

• NJ-Sen: According to a new Rutgers-Eagleton poll, Bob Menendez’s approvals are 34-28 – better than I would have thought! Chris Christie’s numbers keep getting worse (yay!), while Obama is at +21.

• IN-Sen: Like their counterparts in the Wisconsin state Senate, Democrats in Indiana’s House are holed up in Illinois, boycotting their chamber over anti-union legislation. This has had the effect of delaying work on redistricting, which in turn seems to be delaying Rep. Joe Donnelly’s decision about whether to run for re-election or seek higher office; Donnelly obviously would prefer to look at the new map before choosing.

On the other side of the aisle, Dick Lugar engaged in a brutally embarrassing flip-flop that suggests to me he might be reconsidering his approach to the teabaggers and adopting a more Orrin Hatch-style form of supplication. After first saying he’d vote against the House GOP’s budget bill (which contains huge spending cuts), he then changed his mind an hour later and said he’d vote for it… and blamed his earlier answer on supposedly not being able to hear the question he’d been asked. The fact that he flip-flopped right after a weekly Republican lunch meeting had nothing to do with his arm being put in a vice behind closed doors.

• MA-Sen: This is an odd set of tweets from the Boston Globe’s Glen Johnson. He asked Newton Mayor Setti Warren if Obama had asked him to run for Senate (Obama happens to be in the area for a fundraiser – see DCCC item below), and Warren was silent in response. Warren apparently later called Johnson and said that yes, the president had spoken with him about the race, but no, hadn’t asked him to run. Weird.

In other news, ex-Rep. Joe Kennedy said once again that he has no interest in running against Scott Brown next year, saying he feels “ill” at the thought. Bear in mind that Kennedy still has a pretty hunormous $2.1 million in his campaign account, left over from his representin’ days, so he’s gotta do something with it at some point.

• NM-Sen: Heather Wilson had a bunch of relatively big backers at her campaign launch: ex-Sen. Pete Domenici, Albuquerque Mayor Richard Berry, former U.S. Reps. Bill Redmond and Manuel Lujan, and one-time GOP gubernatorial hopefuls Allen Weh, Pete Domenici, Jr., and Janice Arnold-Jones. I’d be shocked out of my socks if Wilson has the Republican primary field to herself, though; reporter Gwyneth Doland says now that Rep. Steve Pearce, who had sounded pretty reticent before, “isn’t ruling out a run” himself, but those are her words, not his.

• NV-Sen: This is the best news I’ve heard all day: A former Sharron Angle consultant “talked up the possibility” of another Senate run to Ben Smith, touting her UNPRECEDENTED TEA-FLAVORED POWER. Hmm, that’s probably the label on some Japanese soft drink, but that’s still pretty much the gist of what this guy said. Sadly, though, Jon Ralston is here to drink my weird made-up Japanese soft drink – drink it up – because he thinks both Angle and Lt. Gov. Krolicki (also considering a Senate bid) will instead run in NV-02, which would be open if Rep. Dean Heller decides to move up.

On the Dem side, Greg Giroux – who I think must be wired, Matrix-like, into all the key election databases – spots a filing from Byron Georgiou, an attorney who was one of Harry Reid’s picks to serve on the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission. It can be a little tricky to tell with attorneys, but it sounds like Georgiou may be pretty wealthy, given that Wikipedia describes his career as generally involving major plaintiff-side litigation. (By the way, Dem Ross Miller told Ralston he would wait to see what Rep. Shelley Berkley does before making plans of his own.)

Also, UMN has another one of their typically fascinating posts up, this time about the Nevada Senate race. It turns out that in the state’s 100-plus year history, there have only been five open seat races, and only once (in 1942!) was the seat held by the same party. The same piece also points out that only one Nevada senator, Richard Bryan (D), has ever left office on his own terms – those who didn’t lose in the general were driven from office by reasons of scandal (like Ensign), health, or failure to win renomination.

• PA-Sen: Remember Sam Rohrer? I definitely didn’t. But the former state Rep., who got killed in the gubernatorial primary against now-Gov. Tom Corbett last year, said he hasn’t ruled out a challenge to Sen. Bob Casey. His party may need him, since pretty much no serious Republican seems interested in running.

• VT-Sen, VT-Gov: Thom Lauzon, the Republican mayor of Barre (pop. 9,000), says he’s considering running for either governor or Senate, but neither sounds likely, especially the latter, since he says he’s tight with state Auditor Tom (not Tim) Salmon, who has said he’s leaning toward a run.

• WV-Sen: Gonna be a long two years if we have to put up with this on a regular basis.

• FL-22: I can’t really tell if this guy rises above Some Dude level, but Gulf War vet Patrick Daniel (D) says he’s challenging Allen West, and that he’s been “preparing to run for office for at least five years” (in the words of his interviewer, Kenneth Quinnell).

• MN-08: A wide net sure is right. A source tells Joe Bodell of the MN Progressive Project that one possible Democratic candidate to take on Rep. Chip Cravaaaaaack is state Rep. Ryan Winkler. The only problem is that Winkler represents a district in suburban Minneapolis, while the 8th CD covers Minnesota’s northeastern reaches. So what gives? Winkler is a native of Bemidji, some 200 miles north of the Twin Cities, and he told Bodell that he’s thought about moving home, “but nothing is in the works.” I’ll also point out that Bemidji is actually in the 7th district (right near the border with the 8th).

• NY-26: Jack Davis was always just about the worst imaginable fit for the Democratic Party since Lyndon LaRouche, so it’s no surprise that he’s trying to court teabaggers in pursuit of his doomed fourth run for Congress (this time as an independent). The best part is that the mainstream (lol) teabaggers are rejecting him, but a splinter group (yes, another Judean People’s Front/People’s Front of Judea split) supposedly is in Davis’s camp. Davis is also trying to claim that Republican Jane Corwin has a “nanny issue,” but whatevs. Those don’t seem to gain a lot of traction these days, even if true.

• OR-01: SurveyUSA released a poll asking folks their opinions of David Wu. They ask respondents how they voted last year (52-38 for Wu, close to the actual 54-42 margin), and they also have a do-over question pitting Wu against 2010 challenger Rob Cornilles. Cornilles fares little better in this question, getting just 41%, but Wu drops dramatically, down to 33%. Meanwhile, Kari Chisholm at Blue Oregon has a massive list of everyone and his dog and the dog’s stuffed chewtoy who could potentially try to primary Wu, who has been busy conducting an apology tour of sorts.

• Los Angeles Mayor: It’s never too early to think about the 2013 elections, and that is exactly what over a dozen ambitious residents of America’s 2nd largest city are doing. The Los Angeles Times handicaps the vast field of candidates contemplating bids to replace Antonio Villaraigosa as the next mayor of Los Angeles. The prospects range from the old (longtime LA pol and County Supervisor Zev Yaroslavsky) to the young (state senator Alex Padilla, who was 2 years old when Yaroslavsky first landed a seat on the LA City Council). And just to show that there are still potential Bloombergs among us, the field contains two wealthy self-funders (developer Rick Caruso and investment banker-turned-deputy mayor Austin Beutner). (Steve Singiser)

• NYC Mayor: Gag me with a spoon – when asked by Fareed Zakaria on CNN, Eliot Spitzer refused to rule out a run for NYC mayor. And I say this as someone who worked to get Spitzer elected – twice!

• WI Recall: Greg Sargent has an update on Dems’ signature collection efforts in the recall drive, and Team Blue is saying things are going very well in the early going – beating expectations, in fact. But there also seems to be some movement in terms of a deal with Gov. Scott Walker, which could deflate the sails of the recall movement very abruptly.

• DCCC: Obama alert! The POTUS was in Boston yesterday for a fundraiser for the DCCC. (That’s why he had the chance to chat with Setti Warren – see MA-Sen item above.) The D-Trip says the event raised a million bucks.

Redistricting Roundup:

• Arkansas: Reid Wilson has a tantalizing tweet, but nothing more: ” Arkansas legislators contemplating new heavily black, safe Dem seat.”

• Colorado: Republicans in the state House (where they’re in the majority) are trying to push a new law which would have the effect of moving Democratic Pueblo out of the 3rd CD (which gives Dems a fighting chance there) and into the deep red vote sink that is the 5th district. This is probably being done with an eye to protect freshman Rep. Scott Tipton, but it’s also possible that “moderate” state Sen. Ellen Roberts, a co-sponsor of the bill, is trying to craft a district more to her liking for an eventual run someday. Either way, it doesn’t matter – Dems control the state Senate and the governor’s mansion, so this bill is going nowhere.

Mississippi: Well, that sure was fast. A state Senate panel (controlled by the GOP) rejected a new map for the state House, which the Dem-controlled House had passed last week. If the two sides remain deadlocked, it’s possible that the state would have to conduct legislative elections both this year (under the old map) and next year (under a new map), something that actually happened in 1991/92. This would of course give the GOP another chance to win the state House before a Dem map can be implemented (and you’ve gotta think their odds of doing so are pretty good).

Meanwhile, there’s also some Redistricting™-brand cat fud on display in the Senate. Republicans released a map for their own body (available, along with demographic info, here), but Lt. Gov. Phil Bryant (who also holds the position of President of the Senate) pushed a plan of his own through the Elections Committee instead. (If you have a link to that map, please let us know in comments.) That puts him in a battle with members of his own party in terms of which map should get adopted.

• Pennsylvania: As Nice & Smooth put it, sometimes I map slow, sometimes I map quick – and PA Republicans are definitely in the former category. After state Senate Majority Leader Dominic Pileggi said he hoped to have a new congressional map complete in the fall, a wise-ass aide noted that technically, fall doesn’t end until Dec. 21st, so we might not see a new plan until the Winter Solstice. The staffer also said that technically, he has kissed a girl, because he once played spin-the-bottle with his second cousin.

• Redistricting: The Brennan Center has a very helpful guide to understanding the intricacies of redistricting, which you should all bookmark.