Author: DavidNYC

Public Policy Polling (PDF) (2/9-13, Tennessee voters, no trendlines):

Bob Corker (R-inc): 41

Phil Bredesen (D): 46

Undecided: 12

Bob Corker (R-inc): 50

Jim Cooper (D): 32

Undecided: 18

Bob Corker (R-inc): 55

Harold Ford, Jr. (D): 32

Undecided: 14

Bob Corker (R-inc): 52

Bart Gordon (D): 29

Undecided: 19

Bob Corker (R-inc): 53

Al Gore (D): 38

Undecided: 9

Bob Corker (R-inc): 50

Tim McGraw (D): 28

Undecided: 22

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Clearing the decks on this poll from last week. Unless former Gov. Phil Bredesen (who has crazy 63-19 approvals) makes the race, freshman Sen. Bob Corker looks to be in pretty strong shape. Most of these other names – none of whom I think is seriously considering the race – aren’t especially well known and have middling favorables and are at least half unknown (except Harold Ford, who is despised).

As for Bredesen, while the DSCC would probably be thrilled to have him run, he doesn’t seem very likely, either. In a recent interview, when asked if he’d ever run for office again, he said: “Well, you never say never, but that is not my intention.” But the indispensible Brian Valco digs up an article from a year ago in which Bredesen had this to say about his future plans: “I really like the public sector, and if there are some opportunities there, I’d be open.” So maybe there’s any opening there – though I suspect Bredesen would at best be a Joe Manchin-type candidate. Still, he’d draw resources away from other races, at the very least.

PPP also put out GOP primary numbers (PDF):

Bob Corker (R-inc): 38

“More conservative challenger”: 43

Not sure: 19

Bob Corker (R-inc): 50

Marsh Blackburn (R): 30

Undecided: 20

Bob Corker (R-inc): 66

Hank Williams, Jr. (R): 13

Undecided: 21

(MoE: ±4.9%)

I personally think a 50-30 margin over an little-known member of the House who hasn’t even come close to announcing a campaign (that would be Blackburn, who represents the 7th CD) is not especially good – nor, of course, are those generic numbers. Hank Williams, Jr., by the way, is the country star, who apparently has said in the past that he’s interested in running for office. Amusingly, PPP also tested country star Tim McGraw in the general – would be kind of awesome if we had a Biggie vs. Tupac-style senate race down in Tennessee between Williams and McGraw.

Blue for Rahm Emanuel (who won 2,087 precincts), red for Gery Chico (410), orange for Miguel del Valle (47). Oh, and green for Carol Moseley Braun, but you can’t tell with her, since she won exactly one precinct. There were also 11 ties. (The dashed line toward the top represents Rahm’s old congressional district, IL-05, now held by Dem Mike Quigley.)

Chicago looks sort of like a drunken man’s Florida, no?

• AZ-Sen: Former GOP Rep. Matt Salmon says he’s considering getting into the senate race. Salmon held current candidate Jeff Flake’s seat in the House before losing the 2002 gubernatorial race against now-DHS chief Janet Napolitano. Speaking of Flake, he was one of only three House Republicans to vote against the GOP-backed spending bill which contained $60 billion in cuts. Teabagger eyebrows were raised, but Flake claims he voted against it from the right, saying it didn’t go far enough.

• MA-Sen: Speaking of teabaggers, Scott Brown, when directly asked if he was one (okay, he was asked if he was a “tea partier”), said “No, I’m a Republican from Massachusetts”(and I drive a truck!). I maintain that a tea-fueled primary challenge to Brown is still possible.

• MO-Sen, MO-02: GOP Rep. Jo Ann Emerson says she won’t try to challenge Sen. Claire McCaskill. Dave Catanese thinks that Emerson’s “moderate profile” would have made it hard for her to win a primary. Also, former MO GOP chair Ann Wagner says she’s still considering the race – but, interestingly, says she also might primary Rep. Todd Akin in MO-02.

• NV-Sen, NV-02: Major bummer, sports fans: Sharron Angle says she is NOT running for president, repeat NOT running for president! Hopefully, though, this means she’ll go for the senate again, or possibly the 2nd CD.

• RI-Sen: Cranston Mayor Allan Fung says he won’t seek the GOP nomination to challenge Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, citing the huge fundraising hurdles he’d face.

• VA-Sen: Attorney David McCormick becomes the latest Some Dude to enter the GOP nomination battle for Virginia’s open senate seat.

• WI-Gov: By now you may have already gotten wind of the AFL-CIO poll conducted by GQR on the battle in Wisconsin. It was actually two separate polls taken a few days apart, combined into one. The topline numbers for Gov. Scott Walker don’t look good – 51% job disapproval, and underwater unfavorables to the tune of a 39-49 spread.

• CA-36: The Progressive Change Campaign Committee (PCCC) released a poll on the Dem primary in the race to succeed soon-to-resign Rep. Jane Harman. The numbers, from PPP, show SoS Debra Bowen leading LA city councilor Janice Hahn 33-29, and just 21-20 without leaners. Obviously there are still tons of undecideds.

Hahn also released a poll of her own, taken by Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates. She refused to release toplines, claiming only that she has a “five-point lead.” Misleadingly, her poll memo says that “Hahn’s lead is larger than the survey’s margin of error.” The MoE is ±4.9%, so technically, yes, her lead is literally “larger” than the MoE, but it’s not “outside the MoE,” which is the metric people are usually concerned with. The press release accompanying the memo also repeats an amusingly idiotic line of attack on PPP, saying the PCCC survey “is not reliable given the fact that it was conducted by a robo call, rather than by an actual researcher.”

One other detail: Hahn also just picked up the endorsement of new state Sen. Ted Lieu, who won a special election last week. Lieu’s name had briefly surfaced as a possibility for the CA-36 race, too.

• CA-41: GOP Rep. Jerry Lewis, seventy-six years old and skipped over for key leadership roles after the GOP takeover of the House, won’t say yet whether he’ll seek an 18th term. Redistricting may play a big role here, as Lewis won’t benefit from another incumbent protection plan, thanks to the new independent redistricting commission CA voters approved last fall.

• NY-14: Biden alert! The VPOTUS is in New York City today, doing a fundraiser to benefit both Rep. Carolyn Maloney and the DNC. A little surprised to see Maloney benefitting from this largesse, since Reshma Saujani said she won’t try to primary Maloney again this cycle. (Then again, Reshma’s already flip-flopped on that, so maybe she’ll change her mind yet again.) I suppose it’s possible that this district’s lines will change enough to offer the possibility of a different primary challenger emerging, so this could be a defensive maneuver. Or it could just be a reward to a loyal backer.

• NY-24: Did Rep. Richard Hanna plagiarize a Cato Institute paper for an op-ed of his own in the Syracuse Post-Standard? Check it out and decide for yourself.

• NY-26: Carl Paladino, already on record as backing Jane Corwin’s candidacy before she was tapped as the nominee, officially (re-)endorsed her. Some teabagger, Lenny Roberto, also endorsed Corwin, but there’s always People’s Front of Judean/Judean Popular Front splits between these guys.

Case in point: Iraq vet (and teabagger) David Bellavia’s been calling local Conservative Party chair Ralph Lorigo, trying to scarf up the Cons’ nomination. Crazy Jack Davis has been doing the same, but Lorigo didn’t speak highly of him. Lorigo is responsible for Erie County, which carries the most weight in the 26th district. His Monroe County counterpart, Tom Cook, is the second biggest cheese, and says he’s also gotten calls from Bellavia, Corwin, and, believe it or not, nominal Dem frontrunner Kathy Hochul. Cook didn’t have kind words about Bellavia, but he noted the obvious truth: state party chair Michael Long is going to make all the decisions, and he appears to be leaning hard toward Corwin.

• OR-01: Rep. David Wu apologized for his behavior and said he’s getting treatment (including medication) for whatever ails him… but that he has no plans to step down. Meanwhile, 2010 GOP challenger Rob Cornilles (who lost by 13 points last year) is being talked up for another run but hasn’t decided yet.

• UT-02: The NRCC has an ad up (yes, already) attacking Jim Matheson over spending, but NWOTSOTB, so I’m guessing this is what Nathan Gonzales would call a “video press release.”

• Philly Mayor: Wealthy businessman Tom Knox says he won’t challenge Mayor Michael Nutter – and in fact, went ahead and endorse Nutter. It looks like the incumbent is probably set to cruise in the Democratic primary.

• Crossroads GPS: The Karl Rove dark money front group is launching a $450K radio ad buy, attacking a dozen Dems on spending and supporting ten Republicans. Full list at the link.

So, what’s your crystal ball telling you? Rahm Emanuel, sure, but by what margin? Will he avoid a runoff? And what will all the other candidates get? Test your mettle in comments. No babka, but maybe Rahm will send you a cheesecake.

• CT-Sen: In almost a parody of Republican fat-cattery, not-very-likely GOP senate challenger Scott Frantz loves to race his million-dollar antique yacht down to Bermuda, while at the same time extolling the virtues of companies that patriotically avoid American taxes by moving their operations offshore to the very same island.

• IN-Sen: Treasurer Richard Mourdock is officially kicking off his primary challenge to apostate Sen. Dick Lugar today, and he’s announcing that a majority of local Republican party leaders in the state are backing him. The thing is, while Lugar may well get teabagged, Mourdock really isn’t a teabagger. The establishment might be trying to get out in front of Lugar’s political demise by rallying around the most acceptable alternative, but while Mourdock’s no Charlie Crist, even conservative guys like him don’t often assuage the true movementarians. We’ll see.

• MA-Sen/Gov: Fresh off his victory last fall, Deval Patrick is opening a federal PAC that, the Boston Globe says, “will pay for his expenses as he travels the country as a prominent spokesman for President Obama’s reelection campaign.” But Patrick insists that he’ll finish his second term, and then “return to the privates sector.” That was actually the Globe’s typo… man, I hope it was a typo. Meanwhile, Scott Brown insists he’s running for re-election, not president.

• NV-Sen: Guy Cecil, the executive director of the DSCC, is heading to Nevada this week, reports Politico’s Molly Ball, to meet with three potential challengers to Sen. John Ensign: Secretary of State Ross Miller, Treasurer Kate Marshall, and Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto. (The DS has already met with Rep. Shelley Berkley.)

• RI-Sen: Warwick Mayor Scott Avedisian says he’ll probably decide by June whether to seek the GOP nomination to challenge Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse. Warwick is considered a “moderate” (whatever that means), and could face an impossible primary against a more conservative candidate. Recall that now-Gov. Lincoln Chafee came very close to losing a primary in 2006 against Steve Laffey while he was a sitting senator.

• VA-Sen: Former Dem LG (and current ambassador to Switzerland – and Liechtenstein!) Don Beyer says he’s enjoying life abroad too much to contemplate returning home for a senate run. And hell yes he gave a shout out to Liechtenstein!

• WI-Sen: Your state becomes ground zero for the future of organized labor in America, drawing attention from around the country and around the world, and the stakes are huge. What do you do if you are Democratic Sen. Herb Kohl? You basically disappear and issue the most anodyne statement possible, saying that you “hope these matters can be settled in a respectful and balanced way.” Eh, maybe we’re better off like this – it’s not like Kohl would be a big asset in this fight anyway.

• IN-Gov: Mark Bennett of the Terre Haute Tribune Star has an interview with former House Speaker John Gregg, who reiterates he is giving the governor’s race “real serious consideration” (as we mentioned yesterday) but hasn’t offered any timetable about a decision. The piece is mostly interesting as a backgrounder on Gregg, who has been out of politics for almost a decade.

Meanwhile, Brad Ellsworth says he won’t be running for anything at all in 2012 (so that would include IN-Sen as well), but veteran state Sen. Vi Simpson says she is “thinking about” entering the race.

• NY-10: City Hall News has a good, in-depth look at the situation in the 10th CD, where we noted recently that Rep. Ed Towns’ son Darryl, thought by some to be interested in his father’s seat, is instead taking a job in the Cuomo administration. This could be a resume-burnishing delaying tactic, but with the elder Towns teetering, several big names who aren’t heading off to Albany could make the race, including Assemblyman Hakeem Jeffries and NYC Council Members Charles Barron and Tish James. Jeffries is publicly saying he won’t make a decision until Towns does, while the more pugnacious Barron is convinced Jeffries won’t primary the incumbent – and says he’s “cut from the same cloth” as old Ed. If you’re a fan of juicy ethnic, racial, religious, machine, big-city politics, set against the backdrop of redistricting and the VRA, this race is one to watch.

• PA-St. Sen.: How common is this? In the potentially bellwether-ish special election to replace deceased Dem state Sen. Michael O’Pake, Democrat Judy Schwank is going on the air with television ads. Her Republican opponent is reportedly set to follow. NWOTSOTB, but do state legislators commonly advertise on TV in your area?

• WATN?: So Arlen Specter’s hung out a shingle. Unlike a lot of dudes in his position who become rainmakers in big DC lobbying firms, the almost quaint name of Specter’s new law firm is “Arlen Specter, Attorney-at-Law,” and he’s practicing in Philly. Meanwhile, Specter’s primary conqueror, Joe Sestak, sure is busy – he’s been going on a 67-county (that’s all of `em) “thank you” tour in the wake of his narrow defeat last year. While the pace is probably less punishing than on the campaign trail, this kind of perambulation is usually the sort of thing most politicians are relieved to give up after they lose – so obviously people are speculating that Sestak wants to get back in some day. Sestak himself says he wants “to stay in public service of some sort,” and won’t deny rumors that he’s interested in a 2014 gubernatorial run., but I just can’t see Sestak as gov material.

• Polltopia: You know how in a WWF tag-team match, there are those moments when one dude taps out and his partner comes in, but for a few seconds, they’re both kinda in the ring at once, wailing on their hapless opponent at the same time? Just watch here as Stone Cold Mark Blumenthal puts Scott Rasmussen in a headlock and Nate “Superfly” Silva busts out the folding chair. When the bell sounds, we know pretty much what we did before: you can trust the outcomes of a Rasmussen poll and a pro-wrestling match just about equally.

• Redistricting: NY Gov. Andrew Cuomo has releases his “Redistricting Reform Act of 2011,” which would create a non-partisan commission that would draw both state lege and congressional district lines. The members of the commission would still be political appointees, though, with the governor apparently holding the final card. Cuomo has threatened to veto any old-style gerrymanders, but it’s not clear to me that this bill has much of a chance, particularly since other reports say Cuomo is willing to trade this for a much bigger priority, like property tax reform.

Meanwhile, Politico has the unsurprising news that many members of Congress have recently started making generous donations to their home-state legislatures, in order to win a little love during the redistricting battles ahead. I do wish they would just post the full chart of their analysis, rather than pick out tidbits. We’d never do that to you!

• Census: Bunch more states a’comin’ this week: Alabama, Colorado, Hawaii, Missouri, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, and Washington will all see redistricting data by Feb. 25th.

• Dave’s App: Version 2.1 has been released, with all sorts of new features. Dave is also adding new 2010 census data as he is able.

• Special Elections: SSP’s own Johnny Longtorso, keeper of the special election flame, files this report:

We’ve got a whopping nine state legislative races in Connecticut on Tuesday. Eight of the nine are Democrats who resigned to join the Malloy administration, while the ninth (also a Dem) resigned due to a misdemeanor conviction. One race of note is HD-36, where CT-02 loser Janet Peckinpaugh is the Republican nominee. A couple of these races were close in 2010 (HD-99 and 101), so we may see some flips on Tuesday.

Also, in Missouri, there’s an open State Senate seat in Kansas City, which should be an easy Dem hold.

And last Saturday, Republican state Rep. Jonathan Perry defeated Democratic businessman Nathan Granger in a special election that decided control of the Louisiana state senate. The chamber had been split 19-19, but now the GOP has the edge. Of course, it would only have been a matter of time before the next Dem party-switcher changed the equation, but this was actually a close, hard-fought race.

A race that looked like it might be sleepy just got a bit more interesting. Not because of this:

Meanwhile, GOP leaders from the seven counties in the district picked state Assemblywoman Jane Corwin as their nominee during a meeting in Geneseo on Monday night.

Corwin said she was “humbled” by their support and touted her rating as the “the 2nd most conservative member” of the state Assembly by the New York State Conservative Party.

“I know we need to slash federal spending, balance the budget, end the bailouts, take leftover money from the Obama stimulus package to pay down the deficit and support repealing Obamacare,” she said in a statement.

But because of this:

The nomination of the establishment favorite, while celebrated by local Republican officials Monday night, drew an ominous warning from western New York tea party activists who immediately vowed to pursue a third-party candidate. …

The western New York tea party organization reacted swiftly and sharply Monday night immediately after Corwin’s selection had been finalized: “How sad, the GOP leaders stuck their finger high in the air and told the TEA Party to stick it,” said an updated statement posted on the group’s website Monday night. “The[y] have endorsed Corwin, they have now set their own table and invited a third party candidate to challenge them for this Congressional seat.”

Still, the teabaggers always talk a big game, and whether they can actually put up a fight is a big question that, I think, depends on two things. The first is whether the Conservative Party endorses Corwin (they’ve done so in the past), or if they give their line to a teahadist. If the Cons go with Corwin, the malcontents will have to petition their way on to the ballot – not something easily done.

The second is whether a well-funded outside group like the Tea Party Express or the Club for Growth decides to get in. The glory that was the Doug Hoffman-led NY-23 cat fud extravangaza would never have been possible without the CfG; if they or the TPX declines to get involved here, it’s hard to imagine Some Dude making much of an impact. There’s the possibility of finding a richie rich, but one good option, Carl Paladino, has already gotten behind Corwin.

Anyhow, we’ll obviously keep our eyes on this race, especially since Dems might still make a serious push here. Fingers always crossed for cat fud.

P.S. One detail from last November’s elections that had escaped my notice is that the Green Party managed to get more than 50,000 votes in the gubernatorial race. This means they get an automatic ballot line for the next four years, so no more petitioning – the first time this has happened for a new party in New York in quite a while. (The Libertarians came close, with just under 49K votes.) So we could see more third-party challenges bugging Dems from the left in the near future, if the Greens don’t make a habit of cross-endorsing (as the Working Families Party typically does).

UPDATE: So Republican leaders are kissing Conservative Party chair Mike Long’s… ring, and he seems inclined to play ball:

“I’ve had good conversations with Republican leaders in the state and in Washington, D.C.,” said Long. “Provided they pick a conservative Republican, I will work to keep this thing unified. It’s a seat we shouldn’t lose.”

Derail a few elections and suddenly everyone’s your friend! Meanwhile, Liz Benjamin points to another option:

However, the Indys could be convinced to support someone else – particularly if they get a personal ask from Rep. Steve Israel, the new DCCC chairman. The congressman is allies with state Indy Chairman Frank MacKay (they’re both Long Islanders), who would like to help Israel land his first victory in his new leadership role, if at all possible. …

But the DCCC, which apparently has done some polling on this, doesn’t see the point of putting any money into the race unless there’s a strong third party or independent candidate who might split the GOP vote in the Republican-dominated district, providing the Democrat with a potential path to victory.

Would the Independence Party deliberately try to split the vote just to help Israel? I’m skeptical – and this information is coming just from a single anonymous source of Benjamin’s. And as I say above, I don’t think merely having a third-party placeholder would be enough of a difference-maker. I think that candidate would have to have real money.

UPDATE 2: Now this is the kind of third-party candidate I’m talking about. No, not David Bellavia, the Iraq war vet mentioned in this morning’s digest who apparently refused to rule out such a run when he interviewed with party leaders. I’m talking about Crazy Jack Davis, the lunatic jillionaire and three-time failed candidate for this seat. There are conflicting reports. “Sources say” to Liz Benjamin that Davis could mount an independent bid, but the Daily Caller amusingly relates that Davis “said he would try for the Democratic nomination if he did not receive the Republican endorsement.” A sure way to lose both nods! Third party, here he comes?

In recent days, there has been some talk of attempting to recall WI Gov. Scott Walker over his attempts to eliminate collective bargaining rights for public employees. However, by law, Walker could not become the subject of a recall effort until 2012, and it would take over 500,000 signatures to put the issue on the ballot. (Wisconsin’s total population is just 5.65 million.)

But the state senate is elected in alternating cycles, and eight Republicans – all of those in even-numbered districts, i.e., who last ran in 2008 – are eligible for recall now. That’s state Sens. Robert Cowles, Alberta Darling, Sheila Harsdorf, Luther Olsen, Randy Hopper, Glenn Grothman, Mary Lazich and Dan Kapanke. (Of course, Dems elected in 2008 are potentially subject to recall as well.) And it would take about 15-16K signatures apiece for a successful recall petition, according to ThinkProgress.

So here’s a look at the presidential vote breakdown in all 33 Wisconsin state senate districts to help gauge who might be most vulnerable to such an effort. The “Margin” column is the incumbent’s margin of victory in his or her last election. Remember, you can click on each column header to sort the table, so you can see which incumbents had the narrowest victories, or which Republicans sit in the bluest seats, and so forth. (You can find our original spreadsheet here.)

One name which stands out here is Dan Kapanke. He’s in the bluest district held by a Republican, and he won by less than 3% last time he faced voters. If his name sounds familiar, that’s because he waged a pretty high-profile challenge against Dem Rep. Ron Kind (WI-03) last year, losing narrowly. I’m sure Kind has a pretty fat oppo file on Kapanke he’d be willing to share….

One less potential open seat for Dems to worry about:

Congressman Joe Courtney said Monday he would not run for U.S. Senate in 2012.

In a statement release Monday morning, Courtney said: “I am truly grateful for the tremendous encouragement and enthusiastic support I have received from leaders across Connecticut as I have considered this question. I look forward to working with all of those who reached out to create a strong future for our state. After careful deliberation, however, I have decided to focus on my work as a Congressman and will decline to enter the race for the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate.”.

So far, U.S. Rep. Chris Murphy and former Secretary of the State Susan Bysiewicz have announced they will run for the seat now held by Joseph Lieberman, who is not seeking re-election.

This most immediately seems to be a boon to Murphy, as Courtney cuts a more similar profile to him than Bysiewicz and thus would likely have siphoned off more of Murphy’s vote than Bysie’s.

• CT-Sen: Linda McMahon says that she hasn’t “made up my mind yet” but that she is “leaning in [the] direction” of another senate run. As Daniel Kelly, ED of the state Dem party rightly points out, she can swamp the GOP field in the primary with her zillions, but she’d be the same tainted goods in the general as she was last year – and, I would add, this time, she’d be running in a blue state in a presidential year. Good luck, lady!

Meanwhile, another much-lesser-known Republican, state Sen. Scott Frantz, says he won’t “rule out” a senate bid, but that he has “no plans to run.”

• FL-Sen: Obama alert! Barack Himself (and DSCC chair Patty Murray) will host a March 4th fundraiser for Sen. Bill Nelson in Miami Beach, with proceeds to be split between the Nelson campaign and the DSCC. I draw two things from this bit of news. First, if you’re facing a competitive race and want presidential help, it’s a good idea to live in a swing state. Second, it’s nice to see that Nelson isn’t shying away from Obama.

On the GOP side, the St. Petersburg Times has an interesting (and lengthy) profile of likely senate candidate Connie Mack. Mack is a hardcore conservative, but remember – it’s not just about how you vote, it’s about how you belong. And Mack has taken a few stances that put his tribal membership into some doubt, such as “supporting stem cell research, defending WikiLeaks and denouncing Arizona’s tough immigration law as Gestapo-like.” Still, with the possible exception of the Arizona law, these are mostly second-order concerns for teabaggers, and Mack would still probably have to be considered the favorite in any primary.

• ME-Sen: If Olympia Snowe is going to get teabagged, we finally have a potential name that’s a notch of above Some Dude: wealthy real estate developer Eric Cianchette (a cousin of former Republican gubernatorial candidate Peter Cianchette) is reportedly considering the race. But the guy who originally broke the news, Dennis Bailey, says that Cianchette may actually be having second thoughts and considering another race.

• NV-Sen: Ah, the blind quotes are out to get John Ensign. “One Republican lobbyist” says he (and everyone else) is supporting Dean Heller, while “another Republican lobbyist” says he’s pushing John Cornyn to have Ensign fitted for some new Ferragamo cement wingtips. On the flipside, one lobbyist with an actual name, Kenneth Kies (who is supporting Ensign), claims “Cornyn’s been clear that he doesn’t get involved in these things.” I guess when you’re a Republican lobbyist, you are either very good at believing things which aren’t true or at least just saying them out loud.

• FL-Gov: Usually, when the headline is “Criminal Behaves Like Criminal,” it’s not really news. But when that criminal is the sitting governor of Florida, it is. Zillionaire creepster Rick Scott followed through on a campaign promise to sell one of the state’s two planes. The problem is, he used the proceeds from the sale to pay off the lease on the other plane – and, says Republican state Sen. J.D. Alexander, it’s up to the legislature, not the governor, to decide how to appropriate state funds. It’s kind of amazing how frequently Rick Scott has already gotten on the wrong side of his fellow Republicans during his very short tenure. Actually, when I said “kind of amazing,” I meant “totally predictable and expected.” Florida is damn near turning into a cat fud factory.

• AZ-08: Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand and Reps. Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Adam Smith are hosting a fundraiser for Rep. Gabby Giffords on March 15th in DC.

• FL-25: When Republicans vetted Rep. David Rivera, they must have used the same crew of CHUDS and mole-people who blessed Bernie Kerik’s bid for homeland security chief. Now comes word that in just a few short years, Rivera funneled at least $817,000 to a consultant and “close friend,” Esther Nuhfer, through an often-complicated series of arrangements that remind me of a South Florida version of BMW Direct. Ferinstance, Nuhfer’s firm raised an astounding $1 million for Rivera’s state senate campaign (before he switched over to the FL-25 race)… but he burned through $700K by February of last year, and at least a quarter mil of that went to Nuhfer. Also, this.

• IN-02: Jackie Walorski is now saying she’ll decide whether to see a rematch against Joe Donnelly (who himself may not run again) in a “couple of weeks.” She also says she has no interest in running for Senate or Secretary of State.

• NY-26: I doubt this matters much, since there won’t be a primary here, but Kieran Lalor’s conservative Iraq vets PAC is pushing one of their own for the GOP nomination: David Bellavia. Even though Assemblywoman Jane Corwin appears to be the frontrunner, Bellavia will be interviewed by local party leaders.

• OR-01: This is deeply, deeply disturbing. Days before the election last year, David Wu’s staff confronted him and “demanded he enter a hospital for psychiatric treatment.” He refused, and went on to win re-election anyway, but as you know, he faced a staff exodus earlier this year. Read the article for the full (and scary) details – excerpting it won’t do it justice. Wu seriously has got to go – and has to get the help he needs. Blue Oregon has more.

• PA-10: Did someone crack out of turn? Last week, Steve Israel said he didn’t want to talk up potential recruits for 2012 lest they get pre-redistricted into oblivion in 2011. Former Rep. Chris Carney seems like exactly the sort of person who would fall into that category, yet an unnamed source told Politico’s Dave Catanese that Carney was just in Washington to meet with DCCC officials about a potential rematch with Tom Marino. Now the GOP will probably try to find a way to move Carney’s house to the District of Guam.

• Philly Mayor: 2007 candidate and richie rich Tom Knox said he might change his mind and run in the Democratic primary once again, rather than as an independent (which is what he previously claimed he would do). He says he’s waiting on the results of a poll to decide – I like the honesty! He’d face incumbent Michael Nutter in the primary if he chose that route. Also, Milton Street, bother of Nutter’s two-term predecessor John Street, said he’s getting in the game, too.

• Nassau Co. Exec: On the list of doomed Republicans, Nassau Co. Executive Ed Mangano ranks pretty high. He ran his super-wealthy county’s finances into the ground almost immediately after his upset victory over Dem Tom Suozzi in 2009. Just a few weeks ago, the state took control of the county’s finances. Now, Mangano is lashing out against unnamed enemies like sweat-drenched victim of night terrors. He’s running a campaign-style ad in which he attacks “opponents.” Yeah, “opponents.” NWOTSOTB, of course, but he’s got quite a few more years to keep digging this Death Valley-depth hole down to Dead Sea levels.

• NRSC: Like a bunch of mathletes tired of being picked last for everything in gym class, it seems that Republican senators have managed to give just about everyone who wants one some kind of title down at the No Homers NRSC clubhouse. My favorite are “low-dollar chairs” Johnny Isakson and Kelly Ayotte.

A major – and unexpected – bummer for Democrats:

Jonathan Weinzapfel has opted not to seek the Democratic nomination for Indiana governor in 2012 because, he said, the rigors of a statewide campaign are too much right now while his children are young.

The two-term Evansville mayor told the Courier & Press this morning that he wants to remain active in Democratic politics and might eventually run for office again. For now, though, he said, he wants to remain close to his wife and three children.

This comes as a surprise given that last month, Weinzapfel said he wouldn’t seek another term as Evansville mayor, which led us (among others) to think he’d probably make the governor’s race instead. But Weinzapfel didn’t just face the likelihood of a contest against the formidable Mike Pence; he also would have been dogged by what opponents have branded a “secret tax hike” – a “2008 meeting in which Weinzapfel and other local leaders agreed to let a local property tax credit lapse – without telling anyone at the time,” according to the Evansville Courier & Press. Indeed, Weinzapfel had already drawn a primary challenger last year (Vanderburgh County Treasurer Rick Davis) on account of this.

After Weinzapfel’s announcement, former Democratic state House Speaker John Gregg (who served from `98-`02) said he is “taking a very serious look at the race.” Weinzapfel praised Gregg in his own “exit interview” with the C&P, saying “I would be as supportive as I could” of a Gregg candidacy. Weinzapfel has a big warchest left over ($750K), and at just 45, he very likely has a future in Indiana politics.