Author: DavidNYC

Via the Fix:

Indiana Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh has decided against a run for governor in 2012, robbing Democrats of their top recruit in the Hoosier State.

“After careful consideration, I have concluded that the appropriate decision is not to be a candidate for governor of Indiana in 2012,” Bayh said in a statement released to the Fix. “”The principle reason for my decision is the welfare of my twin sons.”

Bayh’s decision leaves the Democratic field wide open. Reps. Brad Ellsworth and Baron Hill, both of whom lost races this fall, are likely to consider the Bayh-less contest. Others mentioned include Rep. Joe Donnelly, Evansville Mayor Jonathan Weinzapfel and former state House Speaker John Gregg.

No surprise:

Democrat Mark Dayton has won his bid to become Minnesota’s next governor, defeating Republican state legislator Tom Emmer after a recount, according to updated vote results released Friday by the Minnesota Secretary of State.

Dayton, a former U.S. Senator, lead Emmer by more than 8,715 votes with 99.99 percent of all ballots recounted.

An additional 765 ballots remain challenged by the Emmer campaign, too few to affect the final outcome.

But from what I understand, Emmer has vowed to take this one all the way to the World Court in the Hague, so it might be a few decades or so before we can put this one to bed.

(Hat-tip: LookingOver)

Public Policy Polling (PDF) (11/19-21, North Carolina voters, no trendlines):

Bev Perdue (D-inc): 37

Pat McCrory (R): 49

Undecided: 14

Bev Perdue (D-inc): 40

Tom Fetzer (R): 42

Undecided: 19

(MoE: 4.3%)

Bev Perdue nosed beat former Charlotte mayor Pat McCrory two years ago by a little over 3%. Now, two solid years into the shittiest economy in the better part of a century, Perdue’s job approval sucks hard (33-49) and McCrory is looking good. I think it’s pretty safe to say Perdue would have been blown out of the water had she been up for re-election this year – obviously the million-dollar question is whether she can recover before Nov. 2012. I don’t feel too good about that prospect.

Pat McCrory (R): 37

Tom Fetzer (R): 12

Virginia Foxx (R): 11

Sue Myrick (R): 6

Fred Smith (R): 4

Cherie Berry (R): 3

Patrick McHenry (R): 3

Phil Berger (R): 2

Someone else/undecided: 22

(MoE: 4.9%)

McCrory is also looking pretty good in a hypothetical GOP primary (PDF), with former Raleigh mayor Tom Fetzer and batshit crazy Rep. Virginia Foxx way behind in the low teens. But as PPP suggests, McCrory may not even face a challenge for the Republican nod.

Here’s something fun. There are ten Republican senators up for re-election in 2012, so my question to you is, who among that group is most likely to get teabagged to death? There are of course a lot of factors which go into this question, but at the end of the day, all we’re asking is which GOP incumbents are most likely to get derailed on their way to seeking their party’s (re-)nomination?

I’ve taken a stab at ranking this gruesome tensome, in order of likelihood of getting consumed by the tea-flavored beast:

1. Olympia Snowe
2. Orrin Hatch
3. Kay Bailey Hutchison
4. Richard Lugar
5. Bob Corker
6. Scott Brown
7. John Ensign
8. Roger Wicker
9. Jon Kyl
10. John Barrasso

Ensign deserves an asterisk. While he’s probably vulnerable in a primary, I don’t really see such a race turning into a teabagger-fueled challenge. So on an ordinary list, he’d rate much higher, but here, he’s toward the bottom of the pack.

What do you say? How would you rank this list? I see a lot of juicy targets for the Sharron Angle/Christine O’Donnell brigade!

What a suckers!

Public Policy Polling (PDF) (11/10-13, Montana voters, no trendlines):

Steve Bullock (D): 31

Rick Hill (R): 41

Undecided: 28

Generic D: 39

Generic R: 49

Undecided: 12

(MoE: ±2.9%)

Ah, if only Brian Schweitzer could run again. The outgoing two-term governor gets a 55-33 approval rating (fourth-best among govs that PPP has tested), including 28% from Republicans. But thanks to term limits, Schweitzer’s going to have to find something else to do come 2013. In his stead, PPP tests state Dem AG Steve Bullock (who hasn’t actually announced anything) against former Rep. Rick Hill (who has – he’s in).

Though the initial numbers are far from great for us, and both men are at about 65% unknown in terms of favorables, Bullock is positive at 22-14, while Hill suffers underwater at 16-19. I suspect that being a former member of Congress probably is not such a great resume item these days. Anyhow, if Bullock (or another strong Dem) makes the race, this should be an exciting contest, especially if Schweitzer puts his back into ensuring this seat stays blue.

It’s over:

Rep. Solomon Ortiz conceded to his Republican challenger Monday night in in Texas’ 27th district. The Texas Democrat called challenger Blake Farenthold, a former radio talk-show host, as the last county in his district worked toward wrapping up its recount. …

Ortiz asked for the recount, which cost him $23,500, after the original unofficial count showed him down by 799 votes. Five of the district’s six counties had finished by Friday, but Cameron County – which was also dealing with a recount in a county judge’s race – was still finishing recounting absentee and early ballots Monday evening. Officials there expected to certify the vote count Monday night.

Though swingy at the federal level, this district is over 70% Hispanic.

Races to Watch:

     HI (Akaka)

     IN (Lugar)

     ME (Snowe)

     TN (Corker)

     TX (Hutchison)

     UT (Hatch)

Not unexpected, but miserable news nonetheless:

Republican Ann Marie Buerkle holds a 567-vote lead over U.S. Rep. Dan Maffei in the 25th Congressional District race after Wayne County election officials released their unofficial tally of absentee votes today.

Buerkle added 269 votes to her lead after getting 790 votes to Maffei’s 521 in the absentee vote tally in Wayne County. Elections officials in Wayne County completed the tally today and posted the results on their Web site [PDF].

With those votes in, the total unofficial vote count for the entire district stands at 104,374 for Buerkle and 103,807 for Maffei, who is seeking his second term in Congress.

Maffei can still ask for a hand recount of all ballots, and there are some other challenged ballots whose status has not been resolved yet. But unless something truly miraculous happens, this one is all but over. Truly a terrible loss, and one that few saw coming, but we can hope that Maffei stages a comeback some time soon.