Author: DavidNYC

Hot damn, this one is tight:

At the end of Day Four of counting, Bishop took the lead from his GOP challenger, Randy Altschuler, despite what Schneider described as the Republican businessman’s “aggressive ballot challenge strategy designed to suppress Bishop’s momentum.” Despite initially trailing by 383 votes, Bishop now has a lead of 15 votes.

Altschuler has challenged 212 more voters than Bishop. Schneider predicted many of those challenges will be dismissed, which will ultimately bolster the incumbent congressman’s lead even further.

The Bishop campaign has sounded confident for a while now, and they’re basically predicting victory at this point. Counting is complete everywhere except for Brookhaven, where only about one in seven precincts have have been canvassed. Brookhaven went narrowly for Obama (see p. 34), 109,665 to 98,024.

Public Policy Polling (PDF) (11/10-13, Virginia voters, no trendlines):

Jim Webb (D-inc): 49

George Allen (R): 45

Undecided: 6

Jim Webb (D-inc): 49

Bill Bolling (R): 38

Undecided: 12

Jim Webb (D-inc): 49

Ken Cuccinelli (R): 39

Undecided: 11

Tim Kaine (D): 50

George Allen (R): 44

Undecided: 6

Tim Kaine (D): 48

Bill Bolling (R): 41

Undecided: 11

Tim Kaine (D): 50

Ken Cuccinelli (R): 40

Undecided: 11

Tom Perriello (D): 42

George Allen (R): 47

Undecided: 12

Tom Perriello (D): 41

Bill Bolling (R): 42

Undecided: 18

Tom Perriello (D): 44

Ken Cuccinelli (R): 41

Undecided: 15

(MoE: ±4.2%)

It’s a new cycle, and so we’re back to polls with zillions of permutations. Our friends over at Public Policy Polling take a look at what’s likely to be one of the more interesting races of the the 2012 campaign, and you can’t really complain if you’re a Dem – especially not after this month’s bloodbath. Of course, PPP is moving back to something closer to a registered voter model, but it’s actually a bit more than that. In an email to us last March, Tom Jensen told us:

We call people who voted in at least one of the last three general elections. We don’t explicitly ask them at this point in the game if they plan to vote in the fall. I imagine 97% of the people who answer the polls will vote this fall but since we’re not explicitly screening yet we don’t call them likely voters.

This sample voted for Obama 49-44. It’s been a long time since PPP’s visited Virginia, but in their final 2009 poll (PDF), they showed a McCain 48-47 electorate (using a likely voter screen). Will there still be (groan) an enthusiasm gap two years hence? It’s way too early to say, but count me among those who thinks the economy has entered a period of perma-suck.

Anyhow, here’s a little rundown of everyone’s favorables:

Allen: 40-41

Bolling: 20-25

Cuccinelli: 31-39

Kaine: 43-40

Perriello: 22-32

Webb, for his part, has a surprisingly decent 43-37 job approval rating. I’m also pretty heartened by Perriello’s toplines given his pretty tough approval scores – though I’m a bit skeptical that a one-term congressman in a fairly large state is actually known to over half of all Virginians. Personally, if Webb doesn’t run, I’d love to see Perriello go for the nod, since the guy is clearly a fighter and would make it a hell of a race.

Redistricting will undoubtedly be a top – if not the top – topic around here over the next year or so. To get your engines started, here are a few early items from around the nation:

Indiana: Gov. Mitch Daniels released his list of legislative priorities for 2011, and it looks like he’s trying to burnish his bi-(or non-)partisan cred with this plank:

“Indiana must have a fair redistricting based on geographic and community of interest lines – not politics. And I’ll only sign one that meets that test.”

Daniels’ commitment will be seriously tested on this part of his platform, seeing as the GOP now controls both houses of the state lege (in addition to the governor’s mansion, of course). Incoming House speaker Brian Bosma also claims he’s a supporter of such reforms. We shall see.

Alabama: Meanwhile, down in Alabama, Republicans also control the trifecta – and seeing as it’s their first time, they’re licking their chops. As the Birmingham News puts it:

The likely result is a new congressional map that protects all six Republican congressmen and keeps intact the majority black district home to the only Democrat, according to U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Saks.

Here’s one stab at such a map. Can you do better?

Illinois: The upper hand is on the other foot in Illinois, one of the few redistricting bright spots for Dems. With Team Blue in charge of the trifecta here – and the Prairie State on track to lose a seat in reapportionment – the only question is which Republican freshman will get tossed in the woodchipper. Sadly, we have quite a few to pick from: Randy Hultgren, Adam Kinzinger, Bobby Schilling, Jim Walsh, and Bob Dold! But it’ll still be satisfying to see one of these guys get axed. (And if we’re really lucky, two of `em will get tossed into a single district together.)

New Jersey: For whatever reason, New Jersey chooses to be a freak state, holding its state-level elections in odd-numbered years. This is good news for horserace bloggers, but probably a pain in the ass for the folks in charge of drawing state lege district lines. They have to produce a map by Feb. 1 – which is barely a month after the Census Bureau will releases its state-level population data, and a month or so before they release redistricting-level data. In any event, I suggest you read the linked story, which details how Dems succeeded in getting a very favorable map ten years ago – circumstances which are unlikely to obtain this time around.

Dave’s Redistricting App: I realize there are quite a few new SSP members these days, so it’s possible not everyone is familiar with the awesome (and free!) Dave’s Redistricting App. It does exactly what it sounds like it ought to do – you can draw and re-draw maps to your heart’s content. The eponymous Dave often stops by in comments and with diaries of his own, in case you ever have questions. He’s also always looking for assistance in compiling partisan data for the app, so if you want to help improve the program, please click the link to find out how!

Recounts: The Hill reports that the DCCC has sent staffers to assist with recount efforts in California, Illinois, Kentucky, New York, North Carolina and Washington state. One state is notably not on the list, and I think that says a lot: Texas. Check out our TX-27 item below for more.

AK-Sen: Here’s the schedule: Absentee ballots (30,500) will start getting counted today. Tomorrow, write-ins (83K) will be talled. And provisional ballots (12,000) will be opened on Friday. Joe Miller needs to find a way to disqualify over 13,000 write-ins to have a shot (as things stand now) – or pray that people wrote in someone other than Lisa Murkowski. Interestingly, the NRSC is still backing Miller’s play, with Big John Cornyn and Jim “Crème” DeMenthe both sending fundraising emails on his behalf to help with recount efforts. Meanwhile, for her part, Murkowski has brought in notorious GOP hatchet man Ben Ginsburg. You may remember Ginsburg from such recounts as “Florida 2000: The Brooks Brothers Riot” and “Dickface Norm Coleman’s Dickfaced Adventure: The Whinening.” A little late-breaking cat fud!

MN-Gov: Though he trails Dem Mark Dayton by more than 8,700 votes, Tom Emmer (through his lawyer) says he won’t forego a recount. Cynical (i.e., sensible) observers imagine that Emmer will pursue even a hopeless recount just to give GOP Gov. Tim Pawlenty some more time in office. With the state lege having just flipped to the Republicans, this would give the right-wing wrecking crew some unfettered time at the controls. The incoming state House Speaker, Kurt Zellers, says that even if this scenario came to pass, the Republicans would not “rush to ram something right through.” Of course, you trust him, right?

CA-11: Dem Rep. Jerry McNerney’s lead over David Harmer has now climbed to 804 votes. A judge also rejected GOP demands that the elections chief for Contra Costa County allow observers to “compare signatures on vote-by-mail ballots with voter affidavit signatures on file in the office.” (The Contra Costa portion of the 10th CD went for Obama 56-43.)

CA-20: Republican Andy Vidak has seen his lead shrivel to just 145 votes… but it’s Dem Rep. Jim Costa who is in the driver’s seat. Huge numbers of ballots remain to be counted in Fresno County (perhaps 50 to 70K), and the Fresno part of this district went for Obama by a two-to-one ratio. Hard to see how Vidak hangs on.

IL-08: Though she picked up 188 votes last week, Rep. Melissa Bean (D) still trails Jim Walsh by 350. According to the AP, “hundreds of provisional and absentee ballots are still being counted in Cook, McHenry and Lake counties,” but the count won’t be finalized any sooner than Nov. 16th, the deadline for absentees to arrive. Provisional ballots will get counted after that date. In related barf-inducing news, unnamed sources (aka “buzz,” according to Politico) are supposedly floating Bean’s name to head the new Consumer Financial Protection Board if she doesn’t pull this one out. Gack!

KY-06: Andy Barr is down 649 votes to Rep. Ben Chandler (D), but he won’t concede until after a recanvass (scheduled for Nov. 12th) is complete. Barr vaguely sounded like he might be interested in a rematch, saying “”the cause will continue… and you can count on me whether I’m in Congress, a citizen, or a candidate for Congress.”

NC-02: A lot of roundups keep forgetting this race, but Dem Rep. Bob Etheridge has not conceded to Renee Ellmers – and in fact, he’s already filed a request for a recount. As long as the margin stays under 1% (as it is now), Etheridge is automatically entitled to have the votes tallied a second time. Even so, the gap right now is quite wide – 1,646 votes – but it seems like Dems are pinning their hopes on more errors like the one on election night, where Samson County failed to report votes from three of four early voting sites. Once these were added to the tally, Etheridge gained 453 votes. Still, he’s got a long way to go.

NY-01: Dem Rep. Tim Bishop’s lawyers are apparently headed to court today, seeking a full hand recount of all the ballots cast in this race. (And he’s raising money for the cause, too.) As you will recall, Bishop had a 3,400-vote lead on election night, but somehow that has since swung all the way to a 383-vote advantange for Randy Altschuler. New York finally moved to a modern, scantron-type ballot system this year; problems with the transition are being blamed for all kinds of issues. As for absentees, Hotline says: “There are approximately 10,000 absentee ballots still to be counted; 4,200 from voters of parties that endorsed Altschuler and 3,900 from voters of parties that endorsed Bishop.”

NY-25: Dem Rep. Dan Maffei trails Ann Marie Buerkle by 659 votes, but the AP says that “more than 7,000 absentee and other ballots remain outstanding and most won’t be counted until Nov. 15.” Also note that military and overseas ballots have until Nov. 24th to come in, which could be a factor if the race tightens. However, an analysis in AuburnPub.com suggests that if the absentees follow the same pattern as votes cast on election day, Buerkle’s lead will actually increase a bit.

TX-27: Dem Rep. Solomon Ortiz is gearing up to request a recount, but this one looks pretty hopeless. There are fewer votes remaining to be counted (and this includes provisionals, which are subject to getting tossed) than separate Ortiz from Blake Farenthold. Oritz is alleging irregularities at the polls, but local officials haven’t heard any such reports.

VA-11: As we mentioned yesterday, Republican Keith Fimian is conceding the race to Rep. Gerry Connolly.

WA-02: As we mentioned yesterday, the AP has called the race for Dem Rep. Rick Larsen over John Koster.

Another dose of good news:

Democratic U.S. Rep. Rick Larsen has held off a challenge by Republican challenger John Koster to win re-election to Washington state’s 2nd Congressional District.

With nearly all of the expected vote counted in early returns, Larsen led by 4,408 votes, and held 51 percent of the vote, compared to Koster’s 49 perent.

Larsen trailed Koster by less than 1,500 votes after the initial count on election night last week, but took the lead on Wednesday and has steadily increased it.

The Hill is reporting that John Cornyn will likely seek to stay on for another term as head of the NRSC. That of course raises the question of who will lead our senate campaign committee next cycle. It’s not just that I think Bob Menendez did an ineffectual job as DSCC chair – the guy is also up for re-election in 2012, and it’s hard to balance both jobs. (Click here to see who else is up.)

So who should lead the DSCC?

UPDATE: In comments, TheGradyDem passes along a link from Politico, in which a whole host of Dems say they aren’t interested in the job.

LATER UPDATE: Chuck Schumer doesn’t sound particularly interested…

Bob Dold!

AK-Sen: Right now, write-ins account for 41% of the vote in Alaska, while Joe Miller has 34% and Scott McAdams 24%. State election officials have bumped up the start of the write-in count to Nov. 10th (from Nov. 18th). Murkowski is one of 160 declared write-in candidates, but obviously quite a few write-ins ballots would have to be spoiled, or for other candidates, for her to lose.

WA-Sen: Patty Murray’s lead widened to 1.6% as votes were counted in the populous Democratic stronghold of King County. The trends look poor for Dino Rossi, who took 40% here in 2004 (when he almost tied Christine Gregoire in the gubernatorial race), but is now at 37% this year.

CT-Gov: Yikes – the AP withdrew its call for Dem Dan Malloy. This one could get seriously topsy-turvy. Whatever the hell is going on here might also impact Jim Himes (vs. Dan Debicella) in CT-04. Not good.

MN-Gov: With 100% of precincts reporting, Dem Mark Dayton holds an 8,854-vote lead over Republican Tom Emmer, within the half-percent margin which would prompt an automatic recount. No recount can start until after Nov. 23rd, when the vote is certified. Note that Norm Coleman’s election-day lead was just 725 votes in 2008. So even though GOP lawyers are already laying in a supply of amphetamines, it’s possible the Republicans will abandon what looks like a futile effort.

IL-Gov: Man, did anyone dig a mangier rabbit out of a shabbier hat than Pat Quinn? After a day of counting more votes in Cook County (Chicago), Quinn’s lead has expanded to 19,000 votes, and Republicans are getting ready to throw in the towel on behalf of Bill Brady. Pretty amazing, for a guy who seemed DOA just a couple of months ago.

OR-Gov: As we noted yesterday, various media sources have called the race for Dem John Kitzhaber over Chris Dudley.

AZ-07: As we noted yesterday, Dem Rep. Raul Grijalva has declared victory over Ruth McClung, with a 3% lead. A Grijalva spokesman said that the remaining ballots are in Pima County, which favors Dems.

AZ-08: Dem Rep. Gabby Giffords leads by 2,349 votes over Jesse Kelly, but again, Pima – they have some 47,000 votes still outstanding. Pima was one of only four counties to go for Kerry – and for Obama, too.

CA-11: With an unclear number of votes left to be counted, Dem Rep. Jerry McNerney has inched into a 121-vote lead over David Harmer. It’ll take four weeks for the vote to get certified, at which point the loser can seek a recount (at his own expense).

CA-20: Dem Rep. Jim Costa trails Andy Vidak by almost 2,000 votes, but there may be something like 30,000 uncounted ballots from Fresno County, which Costa won on e-night by a 2-to-1 margin. So maybe we’ll get lucky here.

IL-08: With 100% of the vote in, Dem Rep. Melissa Bean is trailing in a shocker to Jim Walsh by 553 votes. She isn’t conceding yet, though.

KY-06: With 100% of votes counted, Dem Rep. Ben Chandler has a 619 vote lead over Andy Barr. Barr has until next Tuesday to request a “recanvass,” which would be completed by Nov. 12th. Barr could then ask for a formal recount, but he’d have to foot the bill.

NY-25: Really barfy: As we noted yesterday, Republican Ann Marie Buerkle has moved into the lead, after late results from Wayne County came in. She’s now up by 659 votes. Some 8,300 absentee ballots have been returned so far (out of 11,600 requested), though more are trickling in. Maffei would have to pull in something like 54% or so out of the absentees to pull this one out.

TX-27: It’s looking pretty bad for Dem Rep. Solomon Oritz, who trails Blake Farenthold by 799 votes with 100% in. Farenthold has declared victory, but Ortiz claims his legal team is conducting a review and that he may seek a recount – which he would have to pay for (unless it changes the final results). And check out how far the apple has fallen from the tree:

Farenthold is grandson of Frances “Sissy” Farenthold, a Democrat who served two terms in the state House and ran unsuccessfully for governor in 1972. That same year, she finished second in balloting to become George McGovern’s vice presidential candidate at the Democratic convention.

VA-11: With 100% of precincts reporting, Dem Rep. Gerry Connolly leads Keith Fimian 111,621 to 110,696. The vote will get certified on Nov. 22nd, at which time Fimian can seek a recount if the margin remains less than half a percent (recounts are not automatic).

WA-02, WA-09: As we noted yesterday, a number of media outlets have called the 9th CD race for Dem Rep. Adam Smith over Dick Muri. Meanwhile, Rick Larsen has taken his first lead over John Koster, albeit a narrow one (30% of votes remain to be counted).

Via Taniel, some good news: The AP has called WA-09 for Dem Rep. Adam Smith, over Republican Dick Muri. Local media called this one yesterday (see here and here), but I guess the AP wanted to be cautious. Also, I’m the millionth person to say this, but Washington really needs to switch to an Oregon-style in-by-election-day voting system, not the postmarked-by-election-day regime they currently have.

Also from Taniel:

Rep. Rick Larsen just inched into his first lead in WA-2, albeit a narrow one: 397 votes! (30% of ballots remain to be counted.)

Via an emailed press release (no link as yet), the DGA says that Dem John Kitzhaber will be the next governor of Oregon. They also note that they spent a million bucks on the race. More as we get it.

UPDATE: The Oregonian and local TV news both call the race for Kitz as well.