Liveblog Thread #4

11:31: Time for some fresh thread.

11:26: Dave Loebsack hangs on in IA-02.

11:24: NY-29 called for Tom Reed, an expected R pickup. PA-06 called for Jim Gerlach – hope we see Manan Trivedi again, though.

11:23: In TX-27, Blake Farenthold is up by 77 votes with 88% reporting. Also, the results in New York are really crappy.

11:20: More craptastic news: In SC-05, Mick Mulvaney beats John Spratt.

11:19: In WA-03, Jamie Herrera is up big over Denny Heck, 57-43 (18%).

11:17: With 22% reporting, John Kitzhaber has a 57-41 lead in OR-Gov.

11:14: Michele Bachmann unsurprisingly wins in MN-06. Tight race in AL-02.

11:13: OH-12 called for Pat Tiberi. AR-02 called for Tim Griffin, so another GOP pickup.

11:11: A little bit of good news out of PA: PA-12 called for Mark Criz and PA-04 called for Jason Altmire.

11:08: PA-15 called for Charlie Dent, NY-27 called for Brian Higgins, KS-04 called for Mike Pompeo (wouldn’t be surprised if he gets primaried next cycle), AR-04 called for Blue Dog King Mike Ross, and in some very bad news, WI-08 called for roofer Reid Ribble, who beats Dem Rep. Steve Kagen.

11:06: Another shitty loss: Rick Berg beats Earl Pomeroy in ND-AL.

11:04: Kilroy Was Here. Steve Stivers beats Mary Jo Kilroy in OH-15.

11:04: Believe it: Mike Keown beats Rep. Sanford Bishop in GA-02.

11:03: Debbie Halvorson loses to Adam Kinzinger in IL-11. Nikki Haley wins in SC-Gov, but hopefully some shine is off her halo after a narrow victory. (DGA, where were you?)

11:01: CO-04 called for Corey Gardner (R). Hate to see Bill Foster lose in IL-14, but he goes down to Randy Hultgren. Sucks.

10:59: TX-25 called for Lloyd Doggett. Melissa Bean is losing in IL-08 and Bob Dold has a narrow lead in IL-10. Talk about sucky.

10:58: KS-03 called for Kevin Yoder. IA-03 called for Leonard Boswell. PA-07 called for Pat Meehan, so another GOP pickup.

10:55: Not terribly surprising: Teabagger Ron Johnson beats Russ Feingold in WI-Sen.

10:54: Just horrible: Patrick Murphy loses in PA-08 to Mike Fitzpatrick. Also, WI-Gov called for GOPer Scott Walker. And CT-04 apparently called for Dem Jim Himes, though the reported numbers are whack.

10:52: In PA-17, Tim Holden (D) wins. Emanuel Cleaver in MO-05 had an unexpectedly close race but hangs on.

10:51: Fuckity – Jim Renacci beats John Boccieri in OH-16.

10:50: Dems lead in MN-07 (Peterson 53-41) and MN-08 (58-38 Oberstar).

10:49: Republican Bill Johnson defeats Dem Charlie Wilson in OH-06.

10:44: NY-21 and 22 appear to be okay, but the rest of upstate… NY-23: Owens 48, Doheny 45 (9%); NY-24: Hanna 53, Arcuri 47 (16%); NY-25: Buerkle 51-49 (20%).

10:43: Some fugly numbers out of NY:NY-19: Hayworth 61-39 (10%); NY-20: Gibson 58-42 (10%).

10:41: In NY-09, Anthony Weiner (a late add to our big board) wins.

10:39: Ben Chandler is declaring victory in KY-06, but we may be headed to a recount there. NM-Gov is called for Susana Martinez (R).

10:38: MO-Sen called for Roy Blunt. Looks like a huge blowout.

10:37: MA-06 called for John Tierney.

10:36: SC-02 called for Joe Wilson (but note unimpressive margin). NE-02 called for Lee Terry. MA-05 called for Niki Tsongas.

10:34: PA-10: Tom Marino beats Chris Carney; PA-11: Lou Barletta beats Paul Kanjorski; MS-01: Alan Nunnelee beats Travis Childers, someone SSP supported big-time during the 2008 special election.

10:31: Some results from Louisiana: Joe Cao loses in LA-02 to Cedric Richmond, so it’s a Dem pickup, while Jeff Landry picks up LA-03 for the Republicans. In GA-12, John Barrow hangs on.

10:30: A DGA press release congratulates John Hickenlooper in CO-Gov, and that’s good enough for us.

10:28: RI-01, David Cicilline (the Dem) wins the open seat. In IL-17, sophomore Phil Hare (who didn’t even have an opponent last cycle) loses to Bobby Schilling (R).

10:27: In NJ-03, John Adler concedes. Better news in NJ-06, where Frank Pallone survives.

10:25: Thank god: Rush Holt is called the victor in NJ-12. Sadly, Zack Space loses in OH-18. Larry Kissell survives in NC-08.

10:24: Frank Kratovil loses in MD-01, while Mike Michaud (ME-02) and Mike McIntyre (NC-07) both survive.

10:23: Leads for David Rivera and Allen West down in Florida, for Scott Keown in GA-02.

10:22: Crap: PA-Gov called for Republican Tom Corbett. Not exactly surprising.

10:22: 19% in in ME, and Cutler’s still leading. Up 39-32-22.

10:20: This is barfy: Hultgren up 53-44 for in IL-14. And Melissa Bean is up just 50-47 with two thirds in, against what had seemed like a totally imploded Walsh campaign.

10:19: In IL-17, Bobby Schilling leads Phil Hare 54-42 with 60% in.


Let’s get rolling.

RESULTS: CNN | Politico

SSP’s Competitive House Race Ratings: Final 2010 Changes & Chart

Barring any unexpected last-minute developments, below you will find our final house race ratings changes and a complete chart of all of our ratings. To see how much things have changed since we issued our first ratings of the cycle in March of 2009, please click here.

Final House Race Ratings Changes:

  • AR-01: Tossup to Lean R
  • AZ-01: Tossup to Lean R
  • ID-01: Lean D to Tossup
  • IN-02: Lean D to Tossup
  • KS-03: Lean R to Likely R
  • LA-03: Likely R to Safe R
  • MA-05: Safe D to Likely D
  • MO-03: Likely D to Lean D
  • MO-04: Lean D to Tossup
  • NC-02: Likely D to Lean D
  • NJ-03: Lean D to Tossup
  • NY-09: Safe D to Likely D
  • NY-29: Likely R to Safe R
  • OH-06: Lean D to Tossup
  • OH-10: Safe D to Likely D
  • OH-12: Likely R to Safe R
  • OH-13: Lean D to Likely D
  • RI-01: Likely D to Lean D
  • TN-05: Safe D to Likely D
  • TN-06: Likely R to Safe R
  • TN-08: Lean R to Likely R
  • TX-25: Safe D to Likely D
  • VA-09: Lean D to Tossup

Final House Race Ratings Chart:

Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R
AR-04 (Ross)

CA-18 (Cardoza)

GA-12 (Barrow)

IL-08 (Bean)

MA-04 (Frank)

MA-05 (Tsongas)

MA-06 (Tierney)

ME-02 (Michaud)

MI-15 (Dingell)

MS-02 (Thompson)

NJ-06 (Pallone)

NM-03 (Lujan)

NY-04 (McCarthy)

NY-09 (Weiner)

NY-25 (Maffei)

OH-10 (Kucinich)

OH-13 (Sutton)

OR-01 (Wu)

OR-04 (DeFazio)

PA-17 (Holden)

TN-05 (Cooper)

TX-25 (Doggett)

UT-02 (Matheson)

WA-06 (Dicks)

WA-09 (Smith)

WV-03 (Rahall)
CA-47 (Sanchez)

CO-07 (Perlmutter)

CT-04 (Himes)

CT-05 (Murphy)

DE-AL (OPEN)

IA-01 (Braley)

IA-02 (Loebsack)

KY-03 (Yarmuth)

KY-06 (Chandler)

LA-02 (Cao)

ME-01 (Pingree)

MI-09 (Peters)

MN-01 (Walz)

MN-08 (Oberstar)

MO-03 (Carnahan)

NC-02 (Etheridge)

NC-07 (McIntyre)

NC-11 (Shuler)

NJ-12 (Holt)

NY-01 (Bishop)

NY-13 (McMahon)

NY-22 (Hinchey)

PA-04 (Altmire)

PA-12 (Critz)

RI-01 (OPEN)

TX-27 (Ortiz)

WI-03 (Kind)
AL-02 (Bright)

AZ-05 (Mitchell)

AZ-07 (Grijalva)

AZ-08 (Giffords)

CA-11 (McNerney)

CA-20 (Costa)

CO-03 (Salazar)

FL-22 (Klein)

FL-25 (OPEN)

GA-02 (Bishop)

HI-01 (Djou)

IA-03 (Boswell)

ID-01 (Minnick)

IL-10 (OPEN)

IL-14 (Foster)

IL-17 (Hare)

IN-02 (Donnelly)

IN-09 (Hill)

MA-10 (OPEN)

MD-01 (Kratovil)

MI-07 (Schauer)

MO-04 (Skelton)

MS-01 (Childers)

MS-04 (Taylor)

NC-08 (Kissell)

ND-AL (Pomeroy)

NH-02 (OPEN)

NJ-03 (Adler)

NM-01 (Heinrich)

NM-02 (Teague)

NV-03 (Titus)

NY-19 (Hall)

NY-20 (Murphy)

NY-23 (Owens)

NY-24 (Arcuri)

OH-06 (Wilson)

OH-16 (Boccieri)

OH-18 (Space)

OR-05 (Schrader)

PA-07 (OPEN)

PA-08 (Murphy)

PA-10 (Carney)

PA-11 (Kanjorski)

SC-05 (Spratt)

SD-AL (Herseth Sandlin)

TN-04 (Davis)

TX-23 (Rodriguez)

VA-02 (Nye)

VA-05 (Perriello)

VA-09 (Boucher)

VA-11 (Connolly)

WA-02 (Larsen)

WI-08 (Kagen)

WV-01 (OPEN)
AR-01 (OPEN)

AZ-01 (Kirkpatrick)

AZ-03 (OPEN)

CA-03 (Lungren)

CO-04 (Markey)

FL-02 (Boyd)

FL-08 (Grayson)

FL-12 (OPEN)

FL-24 (Kosmas)

GA-08 (Marshall)

IL-11 (Halvorson)

MI-01 (OPEN)

NH-01 (Shea-Porter)

OH-01 (Driehaus)

OH-15 (Kilroy)

PA-03 (Dahlkemper)

PA-06 (Gerlach)

PA-15 (Dent)

TX-17 (Edwards)

WA-03 (OPEN)

WA-08 (Reichert)

WI-07 (OPEN)
AL-05 (OPEN)

AR-02 (OPEN)

CA-44 (Calvert)

CA-45 (Bono Mack)

IN-08 (OPEN)

KS-03 (OPEN)

KS-04 (OPEN)

MN-06 (Bachmann)

NE-02 (Terry)

SC-02 (Wilson)

TN-08 (OPEN)
26 D, 0 R 25 D, 2 R 51 D, 3 R 16 D, 6 R 4 D, 7 R

Safe R:

     LA-03 (OPEN)

     NY-29 (OPEN)

     TN-06 (OPEN)

Nov. 2, 2010 Poll Closing Times & Key Races

Please click the image for a larger version.

Below is a list of key House, Senate, and gubernatorial races, arranged by poll closing times. States with multiple closing times are listed in order of their earliest closing, with the exception of Oregon (where most of the state is in the Pacific time zone). All times are Eastern, not local.
































































































































































































































































Time State Key Races
6:00 PM
7:00 PM
Indiana (E.)
Indiana (W.)
IN-Sen (OPEN), IN-02 (Donnelly), IN-08 (OPEN), IN-09 (Hill)
6:00 PM
7:00 PM
Kentucky (E.)
Kentucky (W.)
KY-Sen (OPEN), KY-03 (Yarmuth), KY-06 (Chandler)
7:00 PM
8:00 PM
Florida (E.)
Florida (W.)
FL-Gov (OPEN), FL-Sen (OPEN), FL-02 (Boyd), FL-08 (Grayson),
FL-12 (OPEN), FL-22 (Klein), FL-24 (Kosmas), FL-25 (OPEN)
7:00 PM Georgia GA-Gov (OPEN), GA-02 (Bishop), GA-08 (Marshall), GA-12 (Barrow)
7:00 PM
8:00 PM
N.H. (Most of state)
N.H. (Some towns)
NH-Gov (Lynch), NH-Sen (OPEN), NH-01 (Shea-Porter), NH-02 (OPEN)
7:00 PM South Carolina SC-Gov (OPEN), SC-02 (Wilson), SC-05 (Spratt)
7:00 PM Vermont VT-Gov (OPEN)
7:00 PM Virginia VA-02 (Nye), VA-05 (Perriello), VA-09 (Boucher), VA-11 (Connolly)
7:30 PM North Carolina NC-Sen (Burr), NC-02 (Etheridge), NC-07 (McIntyre), NC-08 (Kissell),
NC-11 (Shuler)
7:30 PM Ohio OH-Gov (Strickland), OH-Sen (OPEN), OH-01 (Driehaus), OH-06 (Wilson),
OH-10 (Kucinich), OH-13 (Sutton), OH-15 (Kilroy), OH-16 (Boccieri),
OH-18 (Space)
7:30 PM West Virginia WV-Sen (OPEN), WV-01 (OPEN), WV-03 (Rahall)
8:00 PM Alabama AL-Gov (OPEN), AL-02 (Bright), AL-05 (OPEN)
8:00 PM Connecticut CT-Gov (OPEN), CT-Sen (OPEN), CT-04 (Himes), CT-05 (Murphy)
8:00 PM Delaware DE-Sen (OPEN), DE-AL (OPEN)
8:00 PM Illinois IL-Gov (Quinn), IL-Sen (OPEN), IL-08 (Bean), IL-10 (OPEN),
IL-11 (Halvorson), IL-14 (Foster), IL-17 (Hare)
8:00 PM
9:00 PM
Kansas (E.)
Kansas (W.)
KS-Gov (OPEN), KS-03 (OPEN), KS-04 (OPEN)
8:00 PM Maine ME-Gov (OPEN), ME-01 (Pingree), ME-02 (Michaud)
8:00 PM Maryland MD-Gov (O’Malley), MD-01 (Kratovil)
8:00 PM Massachusetts MA-Gov (Patrick), MA-04 (Frank), MA-05 (Tsongas), MA-06 (Tierney),
MA-10 (OPEN)
8:00 PM
9:00 PM
Michigan (E.)
Michigan (W.)
MI-Gov (OPEN), MI-01 (OPEN), MI-07 (Schauer), MI-09 (Peters),
MI-15 (Dingell)
8:00 PM Mississippi MS-01 (Childers), MS-02 (Thompson), MS-04 (Taylor)
8:00 PM Missouri MO-Sen (OPEN), MO-03 (Carnahan), MO-04 (Skelton)
8:00 PM New Jersey NJ-03 (Adler), NJ-06 (Pallone), NJ-12 (Holt)
8:00 PM
9:00 PM
N.D. (Most of E.)
N.D. (W. + Cass Co.)
ND-AL (Pomeroy)
8:00 PM Oklahoma OK-Gov (OPEN),
8:00 PM Pennsylvania PA-Gov (OPEN), PA-Sen (OPEN), PA-03 (Dahlkemper), PA-04 (Altmire),
PA-06 (Gerlach), PA-07 (OPEN), PA-08 (Murphy), PA-10 (Carney),
PA-11 (Kanjorski), PA-12 (Critz), PA-15 (Dent), PA-17 (Holden)
8:00 PM
9:00 PM
South Dakota (E.)
South Dakota (W.)
SD-Gov (OPEN), SD-AL (Herseth Sandlin)
8:00 PM Tennessee TN-Gov (OPEN), TN-04 (Davis), TN-05 (Cooper),
TN-06 (OPEN), TN-08 (OPEN)
8:00 PM
9:00 PM
Texas (E.)
Texas (W.)
TX-Gov (Perry), TX-17 (Edwards), TX-23 (Rodriguez),
TX-25 (Doggett), TX-27 (Ortiz)
8:30 PM Arkansas AR-Gov (Beebe), AR-Sen (Lincoln), AR-01 (OPEN),
AR-02 (OPEN), AR-04 (Ross)
9:00 PM Colorado CO-Gov (OPEN), CO-Sen (Bennet), CO-03 (Salazar),
CO-04 (Markey), CO-07 (Perlmutter)
9:00 PM Louisiana LA-Sen (Vitter), LA-02 (Cao), LA-03 (OPEN)
9:00 PM Minnesota MN-Gov (OPEN), MN-01 (Walz), MN-06 (Bachmann), MN-08 (Oberstar)
9:00 PM Nebraska NE-02 (Terry)
9:00 PM New Mexico NM-Gov (OPEN), NM-01 (Heinrich), NM-02 (Teague), NM-03 (Lujan)
9:00 PM New York NY-Sen-B (Gillibrand), NY-Gov (OPEN), NY-01 (Bishop), NY-04 (McCarthy),
NY-09 (Weiner), NY-13 (McMahon), NY-19 (Hall), NY-20 (Murphy),
NY-22 (Hinchey), NY-23 (Owens), NY-24 (Arcuri), NY-25 (Maffei), NY-29 (OPEN)
9:00 PM Rhode Island RI-Gov (OPEN), RI-01 (OPEN)
9:00 PM Wisconsin WI-Gov (OPEN), WI-Sen (Feingold), WI-03 (Kind),
WI-07 (OPEN), WI-08 (Kagen)
9:00 PM Wyoming WY-Gov (OPEN)
10:00 PM Arizona AZ-Gov (Brewer), AZ-Sen (McCain), AZ-01 (Kirkpatrick), AZ-03 (OPEN),
AZ-05 (Mitchell), AZ-07 (Grijalva), AZ-08 (Giffords)
10:00 PM
11:00 PM
Idaho (S.)
Idaho (N.)
ID-01 (Minnick)
10:00 PM Iowa IA-Gov (Culver), IA-Sen (Grassley), IA-01 (Braley),
IA-02 (Loebsack), IA-03 (Boswell)
10:00 PM Montana
10:00 PM Nevada NV-Gov (OPEN), NV-Sen (Reid), NV-03 (Titus)
10:00 PM Utah UT-02 (Matheson)
11:00 PM California CA-Gov (OPEN), CA-Sen (Boxer), CA-03 (Lungren),
CA-11 (McNerney), CA-18 (Cardoza), CA-20 (Costa),
CA-44 (Calvert), CA-45 (Bono Mack), CA-47 (Sanchez)
10:00 PM
11:00 PM
Oregon (E.)
Oregon (W.)
OR-Gov (OPEN), OR-01 (Wu), OR-04 (DeFazio), OR-05 (Schrader)
11:00 PM Washington WA-Sen (Murray), WA-02 (Larsen), WA-03 (OPEN), WA-06 (Dicks),
WA-08 (Reichert), WA-09 (Smith)
12:00 AM
1:00 AM
Alaska (E.)
Alaska (W.)
AK-Sen (Murkowski)
12:00 AM Hawaii HI-Gov (OPEN), HI-01 (Djou)

SSP’s Competitive Gubernatorial Race Ratings: Final 2010 Changes & Chart

Barring any unexpected last-minute developments, below you will find our final gubernatorial race ratings changes and a complete chart of all of our ratings. To see how much things have changed since we issued our first ratings of the cycle in April of 2009, please click here.

Final Gubernatorial Race Ratings Changes:

  • CT-Gov: Lean D to Tossup
  • GA-Gov: Tossup to Lean R
  • ID-Gov: Likely R to Safe R
  • KS-Gov: Likely R to Safe R
  • MA-Gov: Tossup to Lean D
  • ME-Gov: Tossup to Lean R
  • NY-Gov: Likely D to Safe D
  • RI-Gov: Tossup to Lean Independent
  • TN-Gov: Likely R to Safe R
  • UT-Gov: Likely R to Safe R

Final Gubernatorial Race Ratings Chart:

Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R
CA (Open)

CO (Open)

HI (Open)

MA (Patrick)

MD (O’Malley)

NH (Lynch)
CT (Open)

FL (Open)

IL (Quinn)

MN (Open)

OH (Strickland)

OR (Open)

VT (Open)
AZ (Brewer)

GA (Open)

IA (Culver)

ME (Open)

NM (Open)

PA (Open)

SC (Open)

TX (Perry)

WI (Open)
AL (Open)

MI (Open)

NV (Open)

OK (Open)

SD (Open)

Lean Independent:

     RI (Open)

Safe R:

     KS (Open)

     TN (Open)

     WY (Open)

SSP’s Competitive Senate Race Ratings: Final 2010 Changes & Chart

Barring any unexpected last-minute developments, below you will find our final senate race ratings changes and a complete chart of all of our ratings. To see how much things have changed since we issued our first ratings of the cycle in January of 2009, please click here.

Final Senate Race Ratings Changes:

  • IN-Sen: Likely R to Safe R
  • KY-Sen: Tossup to Lean R
  • NH-Sen: Lean R to Likely R
  • NY-Sen-B: Likely D to Safe D
  • OH-Sen: Likely R to Safe R
  • WA-Sen: Lean D to Tossup

Final Senate Race Ratings Chart:

Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R
DE (Open) CA (Boxer)

CT (Open)
AK (Murkowski)

CO (Bennet)

IL (Open)

NV (Reid)

PA (Open)

WA (Murray)

WV (Open)
KY (Open)

MO (Open)

WI (Feingold)
AR (Lincoln)

FL (Open)

LA (Vitter)

NC (Burr)

NH (Open)

Safe R:

     IN (Open)

     ND (Open)

SSP Daily Digest: 11/1 (Morning Edition)

Another huge batch of polls to tide you over until tomorrow.

  • CA-Sen
  • DE-Sen (PDF)
  • DE-AL (x2)
  • FL-Sen (Mason-Dixon)
  • FL-Sen (Susquehanna)
  • KS-Sen
  • KS-Gov
  • KS-04
  • MA-Gov
  • MI-09
  • MN-08
  • MN-Gov
  • MO-Sen (PDF)
  • MO-04 (PDF)
  • MO-07 (PDF)
  • NV-Sen
  • NY-19
  • OH-Gov
  • OR-Gov
  • PA-Sen (PPP)
  • PA-Sen (Muhlenberg)
  • PA-Gov (Muhlenberg)
  • RI-02
  • TX-Gov (PDF)
  • WA-Sen (Washington Poll)
  • WA-Sen (SUSA)
  • WI-Sen
  • WI-Sen (PDF)
  • WI-Gov (PDF)
  • Bonus: Siena has four new NY state senate polls out (PDF):

    SD-03: Brian Foley (D-inc) 37, Lee Zeldin (R) 53

    SD-40: Michael Kaplowitz (D) 44, Greg Ball (R) 49

    SD-48: Darrel Aubertine (D-inc) 43, Patty Ritchie (R) 47

    SD-58: Tim Kennedy (D) 45, Jack Quinn (R) 39, William Stachowski (WFP/I) 9

    Note that Stachowski is the incumbent, but lost the Dem primary to Kennedy.

    SSP Updates 13 House Race Ratings

    We’ll post a final House ratings chart soon. For now, here are our latest changes:

    • CA-20: Lean D to Tossup
    • FL-08: Tossup to Lean R
    • GA-02: Lean D to Tossup
    • GA-08: Tossup to Lean R
    • IA-01: Likely D to Lean D
    • ME-01: Likely D to Lean D
    • MN-08: Likely D to Lean D
    • MS-02: Safe D to Likely D
    • NH-01: Tossup to Lean R
    • NM-01: Lean D to Tossup
    • OH-18: Lean D to Tossup
    • TX-27: Likely D to Lean D
    • WI-03: Likely D to Lean D

    All of these moves favor Republicans.

    SSP Daily Digests: 10/29 (Morning Edition)

    Hope your index fingers are rested up, because you’re going to have to do some intense clicking today.

  • CA-Gov
  • CO-Gov
  • CT-Sen
  • CT-Gov (PDF)
  • CT-01
  • CT-02
  • CT-03
  • DE-Sen
  • FL-25
  • GA-08
  • IN-02
  • KY-Sen (Braun)
  • KY-Sen (SUSA)
  • MD-Sen
  • ME-Gov (PDF)
  • MI-Gov
  • MI-07
  • MN-Gov
  • NC-02
  • ND-AL
  • NJ-12 (PDF)
  • NY-23 (PDF)
  • PA-Sen
  • PA-Gov
  • PA-10
  • PA-11
  • RI-Gov
  • RI-01
  • VA-05
  • SSP Daily Digest: 10/28 (Morning Edition)

    Yer gonna have to click the links….

    AR-Sen: 54-35 Boozman

    CO-Gov: 43-42 Bennet

    FL-Gov: 47-45 Scott

    GA-08: 47-44 Marshall

    HI-Gov: 50-45 Abercrombie

    HI-01: 50-45 Hanabusa

    IN-02: 48-43 Donnelly

    IN-03: 57-33 Stutzman

    KY-03: 50-46 Yarmuth

    LA-Sen: 50-38 Vitter

    MI-07: 50-43 Schauer

    MN-01: 50-41 Walz

    ND-AL: 51-42 Berg

    NH-01: 53-37 Guinta

    NY-Sen-B: 57-34 Gillibrand

    NY-Gov: 55-35

    NY-19 (PDF): 47-46 Hall

    NY-24 (PDF): 48-43 Arcuri

    OH-Sen: 52-37 Portman

    OH-Gov: 49-44 Kasich

    OK-Gov: 56-38 Fallin

    OR-Gov: 46-43 Dudley

    OR-Gov (PDF): 49-45 Kitzhaber

    PA-Sen: 43-36 Toomey

    PA-Gov: 47-32 Corbett

    RI-Gov: 35-28-25 Lincoln-Robitaille-Caprio

    WA-03: 50-46 Herrera

    WA-09: 49-46 Smith

    Margins & Errors: A Barela internal with only toplines in NM-01… Toomey +5 and Corbett +14 in the Mule tracker… Another big blast of polls (PDF) from CNN/Time (CA, CO, KY, NV, PA)… this fucking Sean Bielat memo (nice scan!) doesn’t even give actual toplines… An internal for Republican Bill Marcy in MS-02 asks a weirdly axe-grindy question about taxation before getting to the toplines