Bonus: UT also tested a wide range of down-ballot races.
Margins & Errors: The DSCC supposedly has some internal with Alexi Giannoulias up 2 in IL-Sen, but this is some NRCC-style crap with no details other than the toplines… Some MI-Gov poll shows that the race still sucks… Frank Guinta is touting an internal in NH-01 that supposedly has him up 53-37, but there isn’t even word of the pollster’s name
Bonus: SUSA also tested the state AG, SoS, and Treasurer races.
Bonus: Ipsos also tested the AG, Ag Comm’r, and CFO races.
Note: The poll apparently asked respondents about “Alex Giannoulias.”
Margins & Errors: On Sunday, Pat Toomey moved out to a 3-point lead in the Muhlenberg tracker, while Tom Corbett is +9… some sketchy details of IN-02 internals from Brian Howey: “Howard County Republican Chairman Craig Dunn said internal polling has shown Walorski chipping a 9-point Donnelly lead to “at the margin of error” around 4 percent.” … CNN sources tell them that Harry Reid’s internals have him up 6 over Sharron Angle in NV-Sen… PPP will have polls out for CA, CO, KY & WV this week
Rather unusually, Suffolk included Blumenthal & Malloy twice in their head-to-head questions: once as the Dem candidate, and once as the Working Families Party candidate. Each got about 3-4% as the WFP candidate. I’ve never seen a pollster do this in New York, where the practice of fusion voting is best known.
Note: Among the 10% who have already voted, Schrader leads 47-46. This continues a pattern we’ve seen in other SUSA polls (and also some, but not all, of the early voting numbers by party registration).
AK-Sen: Opinion Research (PDF) for CNN/Time (10/15-19, likely voters, 9/24-28 in parens):
Scott McAdams (D): 23 (22)
Joe Miller (R): 37 (38)
Lisa Murkowski (I): (37) 36
Undecided: 2 (2)
(MoE: ±3%)
Look at this crap question wording:
If the election for U.S. Senate were held today and the candidates were Scott McAdams, the Democrat and Joe Miller, the Republican, who would you be more likely to vote for or would you write in the name of Lisa Murkowski, who is also running?
AK-Gov: Opinion Research (PDF) for CNN/Time (10/15-19, likely voters, 9/24-28 in parens):
Ethan Berkowitz (D): 36 (38)
Sean Parnell (R-inc): 62 (57)
Undecided: 1 (2)
(MoE: ±3%)
AR-Sen: Opinion Research (PDF) for CNN/Time (10/15-19, likely voters, no trendlines):
Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 41
John Boozman (R): 55
Undecided: 2
(MoE: ±3.5%)
AR-Gov: Opinion Research (PDF) for CNN/Time (10/15-19, likely voters, no trendlines):
Mike Beebe (D-inc): 62
Jim Keet (R): 33
Undecided: 2
(MoE: ±3.5%)
CA-Sen: PPIC (10/10-17, likely voters, 9/19-26 in parens):
Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 43 (42)
Carly Fiorina (R): 38 (35)
Undecided: 13 (17)
(MoE: ±3.5%)
CA-Gov: PPIC (10/10-17, likely voters, 9/19-26 in parens):
Jerry Brown (D): 44 (37)
Meg Whitman (R): 36 (38)
Undecided: 16 (18)
(MoE: ±3.5%)
FL-Sen: Opinion Research (PDF) for CNN/Time (10/15-19, likely voters, 9/24-28 in parens):
Kendrick Meek (D): 20 (23)
Marco Rubio (R): 46 (42)
Charlie Crist (I): 32 (31)
(MoE: ±3.5%)
FL-Gov: Opinion Research (PDF) for CNN/Time (10/15-19, likely voters, 9/24-28 in parens):
Alex Sink (D): 46 (45)
Rick Scott (R): 49 (47)
(MoE: ±3.5%)
IL-Sen: Public Policy Polling (D) (PDF) (10/14-16, likely voters, 9/23-26 in parens):
Alexi Giannoulias (D): 40 (36)
Mark Kirk (R): 42 (40)
LeAlan Jones (G): 4 (8)
Michael Labno (L): 3 (3)
Undecided: 10 (13)
(MoE: ±4.2%)
IL-Sen: Anzalone-Liszt (D) for the DSCC (10/13-17, likely voters, no trendlines):
Alexi Giannoulias (D): 41
Mark Kirk (R): 36
Michael Labno (L): 3
LeAlan Jones (G): 4
Undecided: 15
(MoE: ±4%)
KY-Sen: Mason-Dixon (PDF) for KY media (10/18-19, likely voters, no trendlines):
Jack Conway (D): 43
Rand Paul (R): 48
Undecided: 9
(MoE: ±4%)
MA-10: NMB Research (R) for the NRCC (10/6-7, likely voters, no trendlines):
Bill Keating (D): 42
Jeff Perry (R): 44
(MoE: ±4.9%)
ME-Gov: Pan Atlantic (PDF) (10/11-15, likely voters, no trendlines):
Libby Mitchell (D): 28
Paul LePage (R): 33
Elliot Cutler (I): 14
Shawn Moody (I): 5
Kevin Scott (I): 0
Undecided: 20
(MoE: ±4.4%)
ME-01: Pan Atlantic (PDF) (10/11-15, likely voters, no trendlines):
Chellie Pingree (D-inc): 49
Dean Scontras (R): 33
Undecided: 18
(MoE: ±6.2%)
ME-02: Pan Atlantic (PDF) (10/11-15, likely voters, no trendlines):
Mike Michaud (D-inc): 49
Jason Levesque (R): 29
Undecided: 22
(MoE: ±6.2%)
MI-07: EPIC/MRA for MI media (10/16-17, likely voters, no trendlines):
Mark Schauer (D-inc): 45
Tim Walberg (R): 39
Other: 7
Undecided: 9
(MoE: ±5%)
MI-09: EPIC/MRA for MI media (10/16-17, likely voters, no trendlines):
Gary Peters (D-inc): 48
Rocky Raczkowski (R): 43
Other: 4
Undecided: 5
(MoE: ±5%)
MO-04: Wilson Research (R) (10/17-18, likely voters, no trendlines):
Ike Skelton (D-inc): 42
Vicky Hartzler (R): 42
(MoE: ±5.7%)
NY-22: Magellan (R) (10/19, likely voters, no trendlines):
Maurice Hinchey (D-inc): 43
George Phillips (R): 43
(MoE: ±2.9%)
NY-Sen: Siena (PDF) (10/14-18, likely voters, 9/16-18 in parens):
Chuck Schumer (D-inc): 67 (63)
Jay Townsend (R): 28 (30)
Undecided: 5 (6)
(MoE: ±3.9%)
NY-Sen-B: Siena (PDF) (10/14-18, likely voters, 9/16-18 in parens):
Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 60 (57)
Joe DioGuardi (R): 31 (31)
Undecided: 9 (12)
(MoE: ±3.9%)
NY-Gov: Siena (PDF) (10/14-18, likely voters, 10/3-4 in parens):
Andrew Cuomo (D): 63 (56)
Carl Paladino (R): 26 (32)
Undecided: 9 (11)
(MoE: ±3.9%)
Bonus: Eric Schneiderman (D) leads Dan Donovan (R) in the AG race, 44-37. Incumbent Tom DiNapoli leads Republican Harry Wilson in the comptroller race, 49-32.
OH-Sen: Quinnipiac (10/12-17, likely voters, 9/29-10/3 in parens):
Lee Fisher (D): 34 (36)
Rob Portman (R): 55
Undecided: 10 (8)
(MoE: ±2.8%)
OH-Sen: Opinion Research (PDF) for CNN/Time (10/15-19, likely voters, 9/10-14 in parens):
Lee Fisher (D): 40 (41)
Rob Portman (R): 55 (52)
Undecided: 3 (2)
(MoE: ±3.5%)
OH-Gov: Opinion Research (PDF) for CNN/Time (10/15-19, likely voters, 9/10-14 in parens):
Ted Strickland (D-inc): 48 (44)
John Kasich (R): 47 (51)
Undecided: 2 (1)
(MoE: ±3.5%)
OR-01: SurveyUSA for KATU-TV (10/16-18, likely voters, no trendlines):
David Wu (D-inc): 51
Rob Corniles (R): 42
Don LaMunyon (C): 2
(MoE: ±4.1%)
PA-04: Susquehanna (10/16-17, likely voters, no trendlines):
Jason Altmire (D-inc): 47
Keith Rothfus (R): 35
Undecided: 18
(MoE: ±4.9%)
WA-Sen: Public Policy Polling (D) (10/14-16, likely voters, 7/27-8/1 in parens):
Patty Murray (D-inc): 49 (49)
Dino Rossi (R): 47 (46)
Undecided: 4 (5)
(MoE: ±2.3%)
Note: Old trendlines.
WA-Sen: Marist (PDF) for McClatchy Newspapers (10/14-17, likely voters, no trendlines):
Patty Murray (D-inc): 48
Dino Rossi (R): 47
Undecided: 5
(MoE: ±4%)
Too many polls, too little time. A quick-and-dirty morning digest for you.
Note: I’m informed that this poll had a sample of 600.
Margins & Errors: Marc Ambinder tweets about supposedly close internals on both sides in OH-Gov… If the gang at NBC is to be believed, Joe Miller might be turning into Bizarro Scozzafava: “Miller’s getting close to being in free-fall if some private polling is to be believed.”… The Fix faithfully transcribes a batch of NRCC polls, without firm names, sample sizes, or field dates
What better way to celebrate SSP’s seventh birthday than to give you another firehose blast of polls?
AL-02: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) for the DCCC (10/9-12, likely voters, 9/26-28 in parens):
Bobby Bright (D-inc): 51 (52)
Martha Roby (R): 39 (43)
(MoE: ±4.9%)
AR-01: Anzalone Liszt for the DCCC (10/11-13, likely voters, 9/13-16 in parens):
Chad Causey (D): 44 (46)
Rick Crawford (R): 42 (44)
(MoE: ±4.9%)
AR-01: Talk Business Research and Hendrix College (PDF) (10/14, likely voters, 8/17 in parens):
Chad Causey (D): 34 (32)
Rick Crawford (R): 42 (48)
Ken Adler (G): 4 (4)
Undecided: 20 (20)
(MoE: ±4.7%)
AR-02: Talk Business Research and Hendrix College (PDF) (10/14, likely voters, 8/17 in parens):
Joyce Elliott (D): 38 (35)
Tim Griffin (R): 50 (52)
Lance Levi (I): 3 (3)
Lewis Kennedy (G): 3 (1)
Undecided: 7 (9)
(MoE: ±4.6%)
AR-03: Talk Business Research and Hendrix College (PDF) (10/14, likely voters, 8/25 in parens):
David Whitaker (D): 21 (31)
Steve Womack (R): 59 (55)
Undecided: 20 (14)
(MoE: ±4.2%)
AR-04: Talk Business Research and Hendrix College (PDF) (10/14, likely voters, 8/25-26 in parens):
Mike Ross (D-inc): 52 (49)
Beth Anne Rankin (R): 34 (31)
Joshua Drake (G): 3 (4)
Undecided: 11 (16)
(MoE: ±4.2%)
CA-47: Public Opinion Strategies (R) for Van Tran (10/13-14, likely voters, no trendlines):
Loretta Sanchez (D-inc): 39
Van Tran (R): 39
Ceci Iglesias (I): 5
Undecided: 17
(MoE: ±5.7%)
FL-Sen: Suffolk (10/14-17, likely voters, no trendlines):
Kendrick Meek (D): 22
Marco Rubio (R): 39
Charlie Crist (I): 31
Undecided: 6
(MoE: ±4.4%)
FL-Gov: Suffolk (10/14-17, likely voters, no trendlines):
Alex Sink (D): 45
Rick Scott (R): 38
Undecided: 13
(MoE: ±4.4%)
Misc.: In the AG race, Pam Bondi (R) leads Dan Gelber (D), 38-30. Also, a poll by Voter Survey Service (aka Susquehanna) for the right-wing Sunshine State News site has Adam Putnam (R) leading Scott Maddox (D) in the Ag Comm’r race, 40-35. Tea Party candidate Ira Chester takes 14%.
MA-Gov: Public Opinion Strategies (R) for Charlie Baker (10/11-13, likely voters, no trendlines):
Deval Patrick (D-inc): 35
Charlie Baker (R): 42
Tim Cahill (I): 10
(MoE: ±3.5%)
MA-10: MassINC Polling Group for WGBH (10/13-15, likely voters incl. leaners, no trendlines):
William Keating (D): 46
Jeffrey Perry (R): 43
Other: 5
Undecided: 4
(MoE: ±4.9%)
MI-Gov: Foster McCollum White and Baydoun Consulting (D) (PDF) (10/7, likely voters, no trendlines):
Virg Bernero (D): 37
Rick Snyder: 50
Undecided: 13
(MoE: ±2.1%)
MO-Sen: Public Policy Polling (D) (PDF) for Robin Carnahan (10/17-18, likely voters, 8/14-15 in parens):
Robin Carnahan (D): 41 (38)
Roy Blunt (R): 46 (45)
Jerry Beck (C): 3 (5)
Jonathan Dine (L): 3 (3)
Undecided: 7 (9)
(MoE: ±3.9%)
NM-Gov: SurveyUSA for KOB-TV (10/12-14, likely voters, 5/23-25 in parens)
Diane Denish (D): 42 (43)
Susana Martinez (R): 54 (49)
Undecided: 4 (8)
(MoE: ±3.9%)
Note: Among the 13% of respondents who say they have already voted, Martinez has a 60-36 lead.
NY-25: Siena (10/10-12, likely voters, no trendlines):
Dan Maffei (D-inc): 51
Ann Marie Buerkle (R): 39
Undecided: 10
(MoE: ±3.9%)
Note: Maggie Haberman tweets that Karl Rove’s American Crossroads plans to get involved here.
NY-Gov: New York Times (PDF) (10/10-15, likely voters, no trendlines):
Andrew Cuomo (D): 59
Carl Paladino (R): 24
Undecided: 12
(MoE: ±3%)
OR-04: Grove Insight (D) for Peter DeFazio (10/11-12, likely voters, no trendlines):
Peter DeFazio (D-inc): 53
Art Robinson (R): 39
(MoE: ±4.9%)
OR-05: Moore Information (R) for Scott Bruun (10/13-14, likely voters, no trendlines):
Kurt Schrader (D-inc): 40
Scott Bruun: 44
(MoE: ±5.7%)
PA-15: Muhlenberg (PDF) (10/5-13, likely voters, 9/11-16 in parens):
John Callahan (D): 32 (38)
Charlie Dent (R-inc): 49 (49)
Jake Towne (I): 5 (3)
Undecided: 13 (10)
(MoE: ±5%)
UT-Gov: Dan Jones & Associates for the Deseret News/KSL-TV (10/11-14, “active voters,” 10/7-13 in parens):
Peter Corroon (D): 33 (31)
Gary Herbert (R-inc): 58 (52)
Undecided: 6 (13)
(MoE: ±4%)
Note: The Deseret News says that Dan Jones has also done polling for Herbert. Should we be regarding them as an (R) pollster?
UT-Gov: UtahPolicy.com/Western Wats (9/30-10/3, likely voters, no trendlines):
Peter Corroon (D): 27
Gary Herbert (R-inc): 58
Undecided: 12
(MoE: ±4%)
Note: Dan Jones also has UT-Sen numbers. UtahPolicy.com also has UT-Sen, UT-01, and UT-03 numbers.
VA-05: Roanoke College (10/5-14, likely voters, no trendlines):
Tom Perriello (D-inc): 40
Rob Hurt (R): 46
Jeffrey Clark (I): 1
Undecided: 13
(MoE: ±4.1%)
WI-Gov: St. Norbert College (PDF) for Wisconsin Public Radio (10/12-15, likely voters, 3/23-31 in parens):
Tom Barrett (D): 41 (28)
Scott Walker (R): 50 (44)
Undecided: 6 (17)
(MoE: ±5%)
Margins & Errors: The Fix publishes an alleged WA-Sen poll without either field dates or sample size… Bill Kristol (yeah, that Bill Kristol) claims he has his hands on an OH-10 poll – he has the n, but won’t say the pollster’s name, who paid for the poll, or when it was taken… Pollster.com has a PDF from ccAdvertising with numbers for WV-Sen, WV-01, and WV-03 – but not only does ccA report to hundredths of a percent, they get taken to the woodshed by Mark Blumenthal for refusing to divulge the poll’s sponsor
Wow. That’s like a zillion in blog years.
“Full disclosure, I happen to know John Raese. He is a part-time resident here in Palm Beach and he has a locker right across the, right across the bench from me at a prominent local club. I’ve never played golf with him, but I’ve met him.”
As the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Daniel Malloy says, “The image of Raese rubbing elbows with Rush at a swank Palm Beach country club is not one that the Raese campaign must welcome right now.”
SSP TV:
All I can say is, WTF?
Alaska Dispatch founder and editor Tony Hopfinger was grabbed and handcuffed by a private security detail working for U.S. Senate candidate Joe Miller on Sunday while trying to ask the Fairbanks Republican questions following a town hall meeting at Central Middle School in Anchorage on Sunday.
Hopfinger was reportedly pressing Miller on whether the candidate had ever been reprimanded for politicking while working at the Fairbanks North Star Borough in 2008. Alaska Dispatch and other media have sued for the release of records related Miller’s time at the borough. Various accounts of what happened next generally agree on this course of events:
- Two or three bodyguards told Hopfinger to stop asking questions and to leave the building.
- Hopfinger continued to ask questions while apparently videotaping the candidate.
- Bodyguards told him that if he persisted they would arrest him for trespassing, but refused to identify themselves to Hopfinger.
- Hopfinger asked why he was trespassing, as the event was at a public school. Seconds later, he was then put in arm-bar and later handcuffed and sequestered at one end of a hallway for at least 30 minutes. He was told, “You’re under arrest.”
- Anchorage Police arrived on the scene shortly after.
A later update says that Hopfinger was released after police arrived. Seriously, this is the kind of freaky Mad Max-style shit that is what we can expect in Joe Miller’s America.
UPDATE: More here from the ADN.
LATER UPDATE: Joe Miller has his version of events. See also the HQ of Miller’s security firm – particularly the poster they feature in the window.
What would you do without the Daily Digests?
Relatedly, a truly awesome catch by Politico’s Maggie Haberman: She digs waaay deep to link a story at the Orthodox-oriented news blog Voz Iz Neias (Yiddish for “What’s News?”) about Paladino’s flubbed outreach in the Orthodox community. Though it’s getting far less play than his homophobic outburst, Paladino also attacked a bunch of big-time rebbes (Hasidic leaders) for supposedly being suckered into going soft on the libruhl Andrew Cuomo (who had also done the ritual meet-and-greets in Hasidic communities). Several prominent rabbis are now rebuking Paladino for waltzing on to their turf and making such presumptuous accusations against some of their own. So not only did Paladino piss off half the state thanks to this trip, he pissed off the very people he was trying to win over! In a word: fail.
SSP TV:
Independent Expenditures:
