Author: DavidNYC

SSP Daily Digest: 10/13 (Morning Edition)

  • AK-Sen: A new PAC called “Alaskans Standing Together” has spent $600K on ads for Lisa Murkowski, a pretty huge sum for the state. AST filed with the FEC as a so-called “Super PAC,” as the Washington Independent puts it, which allows them to “raise and spend unlimited amounts of money, so long as they do so entirely independent of candidates or political parties.” Sounds a lot like a 527, except that AST will (supposedly) have to file its donor lists with the FEC. One of their ads is here – almost sounds like a Dem spot, except for the fact that Scott McAdams’ ads have been far better than this.
  • CT-Sen: Talking Points Memo went digging into an old story about a former WWF referee who, after making claims that Vince McMahon sexually assaulted her, was sued by both Vince and Linda McMahon in the early `90s. (They also sued Geraldo Rivera, on whose show the ref made her allegations.) The McMahons eventually dropped their suit after a year… but now that TPM is writing about it, their lawyer has threatened TPM with legal action.
  • WV-Sen: Trying to understand why Politico is presenting this as a new story, when we knew two weeks ago that zillionaire asshole John Raese loudly and proudly announced that he doesn’t support the minimum wage.
  • NV-Gov: Is this story going to blow up in the same way the Meg Whitman housekeeper story did? A woman says she cleaned Brian Sandoval’s home back in the late `90s while she was an illegal immigrant, and that Sandoval never asked her for documentation. Sandoval and his wife are claiming they don’t know the woman.
  • SC-Gov: Winthrop University (10/5-10, likely voters, no trendlines):

    • Vincent Sheheen (D): 37

    Nikki Haley (R): 46

    Undecided: 13

    (MoE: ±3.6%)

  • TN-08: Looks like Roy Herron is trying to make the most of the news that the DCCC’s abandoning him: He’s claiming it’s because he won’t support Nancy Pelosi. Gotta give the dude credit for trying – there’s lemonade in there somewhere!
  • UT-02: A poll by the Utah Policy Center apparently shows Rep. Jim Matheson leading Republican Morgan Philpot 46-30, with 20% undecided. The full details are behind a paywall, so we don’t know the field dates or voter screen.
  • DCCC: Ah, the panzers are definitely reconsolidating now, for real. The Fix’s Aaron Blake has a detailed writeup of the D-Trip’s ongoing triage efforts. As we mentioned yesterday, it looks like Kathy Dahlkemper (PA-03), Steve Dreihaus (OH-01), and Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24) are being left on the cutting room floor. In addition, Blake confirms his earlier tweet that Trent van Haaften (IN-08), Roy Herron (TN-08 – see above), and Stephene Moore (KS-03) are also apparently on their own as they defend open seats. Two “good” cancellations were also made in LA-02 and DE-AL, where Dem pickup chances are looking good. (Remember that even in 1994, Dems won four open seats.) But really, click through and read the whole piece, as Blake has details of cuts made all around the country – though he notes that many are small and may just represent resource shifts.

    • SSP TV:

    • NY-Gov: Andy Cuomo touts the Medicaid Fraud unit at the AG’s office, then attacks Carl Paladino as a shady insider
    • AL-02: Bobby Bright explains that he’s basically more-or-less a Republican
    • NH-02: Annie Kuster hits Charlie Bass on a common theme, “raising his own pay” while a member of Congress
    • PA-Sen: Two Joe Sestak ads on the same theme: the first points out what would have happened to retirement savings over the last couple of years had Social Security been privatized (per Pat Toomey’s wishes); the second features seniors saying basically the same thing

    Independent Expenditures:

    • PA-10: The DCCC spends $47K attacking Tom Marino – I’m wondering if some of this is for web ads, since there’s an $8 charge from GoDaddy (and the sums are smallish, though possibly radio-level)
    • Realtors: Spend $1.3 mil helping Dems Joe Donnelly (IN-02), Dennis Cardoza (CA-18), John Adler (NJ-03), and Ed Perlmutter (CO-07)

    SSP Daily Digest: 10/12 (Morning Edition)

  • AK-Sen: Joe Miller is taking a vow of omertà, insisting that he simply won’t answer any more questions about his personal background. He’s also taking a page right out of the Sarah Palin playbook, whining that he’s been the victim of “journalist impropriety,” and making up stories about reporters gaining access to his “confidential file,” in “violation of the law.” I despairingly think that Miller won’t pay the price for this that he ought to – look at Rick Perry, who refuses to meet with newspaper editorial boards, as an example.

    • Also of note: Miller is trying to unring that Seventeenther bell a bit – but not really. His stance now is that a constitutional amendment to eliminate the direct election of senators is not “practical,” but sure sounds like he’d love to do it if he could. What a weirdo.

  • NV-Sen: Clinton alert! The Big Dog will be in Nevada today to campaign with Harry Reid.
  • WV-Sen: Clinton alert (retroactive)! Bill Clinton was in Morgantown yesterday, campaigning for Joe Manchin. He made a point of saying that the “hick-y” ad “burns me up.”
  • KS-Gov: This creeptastic story is finally getting some play in the Kansas gubernatorial race. Back around 2002 or so, Sam Brownback was roommates in Washington, DC with a radical cleric named Lou Engle. You might remember Engle as the Talibangelist who led a “prayer” rally in Uganda right when the country was debating passage of a bill which would have implemented the death penalty for homosexuals. Though he later tried to distance himself from the measure, at the time, Engle “praised the country’s ‘courage’ and ‘righteousness’ in promoting the bill. In the past, Engle has also donated to Brownback’s campaigns, and Brownback has done events with him as recently as last year. Seemingly caught off-guard by all this, the Brownback campaign had no statement in response.
  • NY-Gov: When you’ve lost Rudy Giuliani… His Dingusness attacked fellow Republican Carl Paladino over his anti-gay remarks, calling them “highly offensive” and saying Paladino should apologize. Not really sure what Rudy’s angle is here, though.
  • TN-Gov: Republican gubernatorial nominee Bill Haslam poured in another $2.8 million of his own money in the third quarter, for $4.3 mil total. He’s also raised a pretty amazing $12.5 million from outside donors, all told; combined, this apparently makes for a new Tennessee record. (Recall that Haslam had a very competitive GOP primary.) Dem Mike McWherter hasn’t released 3Q nums yet, but he’s raised just a fraction of what Haslam has.
  • FL-22: Barack Obama did a fundraiser last night at the home of former NBA great Alonzo Mourning (which we mentioned to you back in SSP Amazing Digest #88). The event raised a million bucks, split between the Ron Klein campaign and the DNC. In attendance were Miami Heat players Chris Bosh and Dwayne Wade (but not LeBron James), as well as Magic Johnson.
  • ME-02: Looks like Jason Levesque is going to have to beg his mom for rides to campaign rallies: the Republican just got his license suspended, after three speeding convictions in the past year. Lifetime, he has 18 driving-related convictions (including nine for speeding), and his licenses has been suspended three times.
  • NV-03: Joe Heck has a serious problem wrapped around his neck like a twenty-pound goiter. It’s called Sharron Angle, and he just doesn’t know what do with it. When asked directly by a voter whether he planned to vote for his own party’s senate nominee, Heck responded: “I’m waiting to see all of the evidence before I make my choice.”
  • NY-01: Biden alert! The VPOTUS is coming to NYC to do a fundraiser for Tim Bishop on Oct. 26th. Seems awfully late in the game to be raising scratch, but I suppose a Biden event is such a sure thing that Bishop can max out the campaign credit cards against the expected take.
  • OH-09: As he watches his candidacy circle the drain, Rich Iott lashed out at the top-ranking Jewish Republican in the Milky Way, Eric Cantor, who had repudiated him a day earlier:

    • “I think that Representative Cantor did what so many career politicians do. He reacted before he had all the facts. He didn’t know the whole story. He didn’t understand what historical reenacting is all about, or the education side of it. And he just made a decision without all the facts. My opponent here is cut out of the same cloth. Those are the people who passed the health care bill before they knew what was in it. The same folks who passed the stimulus bill….”

    Because comparing the minority whip to Democrats is a good idea for a Republican candidate with a future, right? Anyhow, for those of you who perhaps wanted to hold out hope that Iott was just some weird LARPer (but I repeat myself), please review this paragraph taken from the website of his fellow Nazi re-enactors:

    Nazi Germany had no problem in recruiting the multitudes of volunteers willing to lay down their lives to ensure a “New and Free Europe”, free of the threat of Communism. National Socialism was seen by many in Holland, Denmark, Norway, Finland, and other eastern European and Balkan countries as the protector of personal freedom and their very way of life, despite the true underlying totalitarian (and quite twisted, in most cases) nature of the movement. Regardless, thousands upon thousands of valiant men died defending their respective countries in the name of a better tomorrow. We salute these idealists; no matter how unsavory the Nazi government was, the front-line soldiers of the Waffen-SS (in particular the foreign volunteers) gave their lives for their loved ones and a basic desire to be free.

  • OR-04: There’s no direct quote here, but the Douglas County News-Review reports that Rep. Peter DeFazio “says he favors replacing Pelosi as speaker if Democrats retain their majority.” DeFazio has long had an antagonistic relationship with Pelosi, most recently coming to a head with his refusal to vote for the stimulus, allegedly from the left.
  • OR-05: These Republicans have no respect for Godwin’s Law, do they? Speaking of the healthcare reform bill, Scott Bruun said:

    • “From a social perspective, it’s right up there, I would argue – probably the fugitive slave law was worse. But still, the healthcare bill was pretty darn bad.”

    The Fugitive Slave Act, which “required any runaway slaves who had escaped their bondage and were living free in the Northern states be returned to their owners” – and was one of the causes of the Civil War. Right on!

  • PA-03, PA-12: Biden alert (retroactive)! The VPOTUS did a fundraiser in Pittsburgh with both Reps. Kathy Dahlkemper and Mark Critz in attendance. The Hill makes a big deal out of the fact that this event didn’t take place in Critz’s district – but I’m just going to guess that there are a lot more wealthy Dems in the P’burgh area than in the 12th CD.
  • PA-06: Can an internal ever be too good? Well, you tell me if you believe this Susquehanna survey that Jim Gerlach is touting, which has him up by a massive 61-31 spread. Still, now would be a good time for Manan Trivedi or the DCCC to show us something different.
  • PA-11: If Paul Kanjorski somehow, improbably, survives once more, he will owe his fortune yet again to the realtors, who have already spent three-quarters of a million on ads on his behalf, after spending a million bucks last time.
  • Polltopia: Time to help PPP pick their next state to poll.

    • SSP TV:

    • FL-Gov: In a move we’ve seen a few times this cycle, Alex Sink is trying out the long-form political ad, this time with a 2-minute spot detailing Rick Scott’s Medicare fraud and his attempts to hide from it
    • WA-08: In her third ad, Suzan DelBene hits Reichert on raising taxes & shipping jobs overseas

    Independent Expenditures:

    • AFSCME: Throws down $750K against Republican roofer Reid Ribble (WI-08) and $628K against GOPer Mike Fitzpatrick (PA-08)
    • NRA: Almost $3 million in senate buys (here & here)
    • NRCC: Huge $8.25 million buy
    • Realtors: CA-18 (for Dennis Cardoza); IL-14 & PA-11 (for Bill Foster & Paul Kanjorski)
    • TX-23: A group called “The American Worker, Inc.” is running some $200K worth of ads against Republican Quico Canseco

    SSP Daily Digest: 10/11 (Morning Edition)

  • CO-Sen: Clinton alert! The Big Dog is doing a rally for Sen. Michael Bennet in Denver on Oct. 18th. Interestingly, Bill had endorsed Andrew Romanoff in the primary.
  • CT-Sen: Open seat fans, start getting ready for the 2022 cycle! In a weird attempt to channel 1994, Linda McMahon says she will serve a maximum of two terms. Uh, okay.
  • NY-Gov: The Carl Paladino charm offensive continues:

    • Flame-throwing Republican Carl Paladino erupted again, declaring yesterday that being gay is “not the example that we should be showing our children.”

    “I don’t want [children] brainwashed into thinking homosexuality is an equally valid and successful option – it isn’t,” Paladino said to applause at a meeting with Hasidic Jewish leaders in Brooklyn’s Williamsburg section.

    In a version of the speech distributed by a rabbi, the anti-gay rant went further, charging there is “nothing to be proud of in being a dysfunctional homosexual.”

    Getting less play, but likely to damage him among the very community he was trying to reach out to, were Paladino’s remarks attacking Orthodox Jewish “power brokers” who supposedly have conned key rabbis.

  • AZ-07: While my feeling is that Raul Grijalva probably does have a competitive race on his hands, I’m not sure this Politico piece really adds much in the way of new news. All we have is that one Magellan poll which showed the race tight, and a lot of whispers. It’s almost like Politico is holding up a mirror at the edge of a rippling pond and – lo and behold! – making the ripples appear to be twice as broad as they actually are. The only real tidbit here is that Rep. Xavier Becerra, a member of leadership, recently exhorted Congressional Hispanic Caucus members to give to Grijalva.
  • MI-07: Former Rep. Joe Schwarz once again endorsed Mark Schauer, the man who beat Tim Walberg – aka the man who beat Joe Schwarz in the GOP primary in 2006. Schwarz also backed Schauer in 2008 (and previously backed Walberg’s opponent Brian Rooney in this year’s Republican primary).
  • NJ-03: This is the kind of thing which makes the bedwetters at newspaper editorial boards wring their hands like mad men, but as far as I’m concerned, it’s just good politics. The Courier-Post has a detailed story explaining how Democrats helped mysterious teabagger Peter DeStefano get on the ballot. No one except us junkies care about process stories, so I think Dems should be doing a lot more of this kind of thing.
  • NY-02: NYC Mayor Mike Bloomberg heads outside city and party lines to endorse Democratic Long Island Rep. Steve Israel.
  • SC-05: Yet another Republican hypocrite. John Spratt’s been hitting Mick Mulvaney for his involvement in a real estate development deal that received a $30 million loan from Lancaster County and then went south – but not before Mulvaney flipped the property for a profit. Now Mulvaney says, “I believe small business needs government to get out of the way.” Spratt fired back: “When he needed $30 million, he didn’t go to his bank, he didn’t go to private sources, he went to county government.” Spratt’s also been running an ad on this issue.
  • TX-17: Man, yet another similar story. Here Dave Michaels of the Dallas Morning News’ lede says it all: “The Republican challenger who has assailed Rep. Chet Edwards for supporting taxpayer bailouts once led his company through a bankruptcy that let it avoid a $7.5 million debt to the U.S. government.” The piece goes on to note that (predictably) Flores “insists that private companies shouldn’t rely on the government for subsidies or financing.” Of course he does.
  • Chamber of Commerce: The LA Times has a piece noting that the U.S. Chamber of Commerce has been digging deep to help a bunch of Blue Dogs late this cycle, including TV ads on behalf of Jim Marshall (GA-08), Glenn Nye (VA-02), Frank Kratovil (MD-01), Travis Childers (MS-01), and Bobby Bright (AL-02). These spots are taking the form of “issue” ads so as to avoid election-related regulations – you can see one example here.
  • DGA: The DGA says it raised $10 million in the third quarter and has $13 million on hand. Allied groups have some $3 million in cash. Politico says the RGA is expected to top these numbers.

    • SSP TV:

    • DE-Sen: A shadowy third-party group has a funny new ad out supporting Zerata the Enchantress… uh, I mean, Christine O’Donnell
    • IL-Sen: A new spot from MoveOn hits a topic Dems nationwide have been making a big issue of recently: foreign money being used to potentially support Chamber of Commerce election activities
    • KY-Sen: Another Jack Conway ad hitting Rand Paul for his $2,000 Medicare deductable scheme – and his desire to increase payments to doctors
    • LA-Sen: Wow. This must-see ad from David Vitter takes the cake as by far the most racist ad of the 2010 cycle
    • WV-Sen: Joe Manchin attacks John Raese for the “hicky” ad casting call – and the fact that Raese wife is registered to vote in Florida and can’t even vote for her husband. A second ad could have been written and produced by Republicans
    • SC-Gov: Vince Sheheen goes after Nikki Haley for double-speak on economic issues, though I think it tries to cram too many things in, and the drum-beat kind of interferes with the audio
    • IL-17: The conservative American Future Fund says they’re dropping half a million bucks on a new ad campaign targeting Rep. Phil Hare – here’s what they’re spending it on
    • LA-02: Joe Cao has a pretty good ad hitting Cedric Richmond on ethical issues
    • MA-10: Dem Bill Keating has a good ad nailing Jeff Perry for the illegal strip-search business that took place on his watch as a police sergeant
    • MN-01: GOPer Randy Demmer has a comparison spot, going after Tim Walz for the usual (healthcare, cap-n-trade, etc.) and then finishing with some positive bio-ish crap
    • PA-08: Patrick Murphy attacks Mike Fitzpatrick for raising property taxes
    • SC-02: Rob Miller goes after Joe Wilson for spending taxpayer money on travel to Hawaii and France

    OH-09: Republican Rich Iott Is Nazi Re-Enactor

    This takes the cake, doesn’t it?

    An election year already notable for its menagerie of extreme and unusual candidates can add another one: Rich Iott, the Republican nominee for Congress from Ohio’s 9th District, and a Tea Party favorite, who for years donned a German Waffen SS uniform and participated in Nazi re-enactments.

    Iott, whose district lies in Northwest Ohio, was involved with a group that calls itself Wiking, whose members are devoted to re-enacting the exploits of an actual Nazi division, the 5th SS Panzer Division Wiking, which fought mainly on the Eastern Front during World War II. Iott’s participation in the Wiking group is not mentioned on his campaign’s website, and his name and photographs were removed from the Wiking website.

    When contacted by The Atlantic, Iott confirmed his involvement with the group over a number of years, but said his interest in Nazi Germany was historical and he does not subscribe to the tenets of Nazism. “No, absolutely not,” he said. “In fact, there’s a disclaimer on the [Wiking] website. And you’ll find that on almost any reenactment website. It’s purely historical interest in World War II.”

    Yeah, this is the guy:

    Major props to the Atlantic’s excellent Josh Green for uncovering the story. Click the link to read more – and see more pics and even a video. I think my recent cracks about “consolidating panzer divisions” might wind up proving literally true in this district.

    UPDATE: Good catch by TPM – the NRCC has already removed Iott from its Young Guns list.

    SSP Daily Digest: 10/8 (Morning Edition)

  • FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek, sensing that time is running out, decided to reject the endorsement of the Sierra Club. Why? Because they wanted to co-endorse Charlie Crist, and Meek needs to do anything he can to differentiate himself from the governor, since they’re largely drawing from the same pool of voters these days. Meek tried to cast this as a principled stance, saying “The Sierra Club has chosen to stand with a governor who stood on stage applauding as Sarah Palin chanted, ‘Drill, Baby, Drill.'”
  • MO-Sen: The Smart Media Group is saying that the DSCC has cancelled two weeks worth of ad buys in Missouri. Given how often the tea-leaf reading has been wrong with all this ad stuff, I’d like to see further confirmation before making up my mind about what this means. (And guys, I don’t think you’re using cutesy hashtags properly.)
  • DE-Sen: The Cliff Claven of American politics:

    • If Barack Obama vetoes that the year before his re-election, he’s setting himself up to be very vulnerable and I’ve seen many Hillary for President ads running.

    Christine O’Donnell, what color is the sky in your world?

  • AL-05: Oh god, this is NOT good:

    • Congressional candidate and veteran political consultant Steve Raby once ran four north Alabama political action committees that authorities say were used to route $200,000 from a Dothan casino owner to a state senator in a vote-buying scheme. Raby says he relinquished control of the PACs weeks before the money transfers.

    And this is just not a headline you ever want to see in your own race:

    Raby: I have not been accused of doing anything wrong

  • AR-04: Here’s a race that’s not on a lot of folks’ radars but probably should be, just because of the nature of the year & state. Republican Beth Anne Rankin is out with a one-day robopoll from Diamond State Consulting Group that shows Rep. Mike Ross leading by just a 44-41 margin, with 5% going to Green Party candidate Josh Drake. A poll from July had Ross up 55-33. But does Rankin have the resources to take down the Lord Satrap of the Blue Dogs? Ross had $1.1 million on hand as of June 30; Rankin, just $70K.
  • CT-04: Believe it or not, Merriman River Group is a Democratic pollster. But they sure have been putting out all kinds of numbers this week which are at odds with… well, everyone else’s numbers, particularly in CT-Sen and CT-05. In their most recent effort, they have Rep. Jim Himes at 49 and Republican Dan Debicella at 47, so I’ll be really curious to see if internals bear this one out. There are at least two things I don’t like about this poll: First off, they report numbers to decimal places, which is a bad practice because it gives a false sense of accuracy. Secondly, they refer to Himes’s opponent as “Dan DeBicella” throughout. C’mon, guys.
  • CT-05: Speaking of CT-05, here’s another poll from Chris Murphy (courtesy the Gotham Research Group), showing him up 48-34 over Sam Caligiuri. Murph’s last poll had a similar 50-38 margin. The only thing I don’t like here is the weak swipe at robopollsters (like Merriman) in the press release: “An automated computer survey can’t tell who is actually picking up the phone – a registered voter in the Fifth District, or a voter’s 10 year old cousin visiting from South Carolina.” Chris – we love you, man, but we know you can do better.
  • ID-01: In response to some rumor-mongering that showed up the other day in Roll Call, Walt Minnick said he “has no intention of changing parties.” I think the Parker Griffith party switch actually was a very good thing for us, as it demonstrated what is likely to happen to any other Dems who follow suit – you’ll get teabagged to death.
  • KS-01: In the race to succeed Rep. Jerry Moran (who is running for Senate), Republican Tim Huelskamp leads Democrat Alan Jilka by a 63-26 margin, according to SurveyUSA.
  • KY-06: Dueling internals in Eastern Kentucky. First up is Ben Chandler, whose poll from the Mellman group has him up 52-40 over Andy Barr. That’s actually a decline from his numbers a few weeks ago which had him up 53-33, but Barr’s gain seems pretty understandable – and importantly, Chandler hasn’t slipped. (These numbers are also backed up by a recent Braun poll.) Meanwhile, Barr’s survey has it 48-47 in favor of the Republican, which are the best numbers we’ve seen from his camp all cycle.
  • TX-17: Chet Edwards also has an internal poll out, from Bennett, Petts and Normington. It’s not particularly good news: Bill Flores leads 46-42. Still, it’s better than the most recent Flores own-poll, which had him up 55-36.
  • VA-05: Jesus, what is with this guy? Teabagger Jeff Clark has been pulling the Hamlet act more melodramatically than anyone since Mario Cuomo. Now he’s claiming he might drop out of the race because he’s being excluded from a series of debates between Rep. Tom Perriello and Republican Rob Hurt. Some of his backers say they might file a legal challenge, but that seems dubious.

    • SSP TV:

    • NH-Sen: Even though Democrats on the Hill were too fucking stupid to schedule a vote on the Obama tax cuts which would have given them great campaign fodder, props to Paul Hodes for cutting an ad on the issue regardless. Hodes says he supports extending middle class tax cuts, but is very explicit that he wants to let tax breaks for the wealthiest expire – unlike Kelly Ayotte
    • NV-Sen: Hah, if this works, I’ll be impressed: Sharron Angle’s ad hits Reid on a few votes (like the stimulus), and also includes this gem: Reid’s vote against Tom Coburn’s retarded “no Viagra for sex offenders” poison-pill amendment to the healthcare reform bill
    • NY-Gov: There is no fucking way I am watching this whole thing. The best summary: “Danny Devito’s version of the Checkers speech“
    • PA-Sen: Another fucking gong ad, this time from Joe Sestak, hitting the same themes as the DSCC ad from the other day. Do we seriously need to emulate Sixteen Candles?
    • MA-10: The DCCC hits Jeffrey Perry – and hits him hard – for his role as supervising officer when two teenage girls were strip-searched by a cop under his command in the 90s
    • DCCC: The D-Trip has a nice map where you can click around to see ads they’re running in key races. You can also check out their YouTube channel

    SSP Daily Digest: 10/7 (Morning Edition)

  • IL-Sen: My god, Mark Kirk is an asshole. The excellent ArchPundit catches Kirk bragging about funding “the largest voter protection” operation in 15 years in “key vulnerable precincts” where “the other side might be tempted to jigger the numbers somewhat.” And pray tell which precincts are those? Says Kirk: “South and West Side of Chicago, Metro East, Rockford.” Those aren’t just Dem strongholds – they happen to be the places where almost all of the African Americans in Illinois live. What a fucker. “Jigger,” huh.
  • KY-Sen: Clinton Alert! The Big Dog is coming to Kentucky to campaign for Jack Conway on Monday.
  • OH-Sen: Quinnipiac (9/29-10/3, likely voters, 9/9-14 in parens):

    • Lee Fisher (D): 36 (35)

    Rob Portman (R): 55 (55)

    Undecided: 8 (9)

    (MoE: ±3.1%)

  • OH-Gov: Quinnipiac (9/29-10/3, likely voters, 9/9-14 in parens):

    • Ted Strickland (D-inc): 41 (37)

    John Kasich (R): 50 (54)

    Undecided: 7 (7)

    (MoE: ±3.1%)

  • IL-Gov: Biden alert! The VPOTUS is joining Gov. Pat Quinn for a rally in Chicago on October 12th at the Chicago Journeymen Plumbers Local 130 Hall.
  • NY-Gov: Carl Paladino, international man of mystery? The noted scuzzball is apparently buying time on all the networks for 5 p.m. today to make a “major announcement.” Sounds pretty stunty to me.
  • SC-Gov (PDF): Hamilton Campaigns (D) for Vincent Sheheen (10/1-4, likely voters, 9/24-28 in parens):

    • Vincent Sheheen (D): 44 (41)

    Nikki Haley (R): 49 (51)

    Undecided: 7 (8)

    (MoE: ±4.4%)

  • CO-03: Morans.
  • IL-14: A Randy Hultgren internal from the Tarrance Group shows him leading Dem Rep. Bill Foster 44-38, with 4 points going to Green Party candidate Daniel Kairis.
  • MD-01: Clinton Alert 2.0! The Big Dog is holding a fundraiser in Washington, D.C. this Sunday for Rep. Frank Kratovil. Man, after all the work he’s done this cycle, I hope Clinton has a phat vacation planned for after election day.
  • SC-02: Rob Miller says he won’t vote to retain Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House. He also said that he plans to draft Joe DiMaggio in his fantasy baseball league next year and that he’s getting his wife a jetpack for Christmas.

    • Fundraising:

    • FL-Sen: Marco Rubio, $5 million raised (a new record)
    • NRCC: Securing a $6.5 million loan

    SSP TV:

    • MA-Gov: Deval Patrick hits Charlie Baker for raising premiums as a healthcare CEO (while noting that he capped them as governor)
    • FL-Gov: Rick Scott tries to paint Alex Sink as a hypocrite on various financial goings-on during her tenure as state CFO
    • FL-08: A new spot from Alan Grayson hits Webster on women’s issues
    • MA-04: Republican Sean Bielat is out with two ads (apparently cable only): the first attacks Barney Frank on the bailout (and features someone calling Bielat “a reasonable guy” – such praise!); the second is basically the same low production values, faux man-on-the-street shtick, and also has a dude saying, “If you don’t like the new guy, get rid of him in two years!”

    Independent Expenditures:

    Polls from IN-Sen, WI-Sen, RI-Gov, RI-01 & TX-Gov

    The polls are coming so fast and furious these days, we have no choice but to throw weird random assortments at you at all hours of the day.

    IN-Sen: EPIC-MRA for WISH-TV (9/29-10/1, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Brad Ellsworth (D): 33

    Dan Coats (R): 51

    Rebecca Sink-Burris (L): 5

    (MoE: ±4.4%)

    WI-Sen (PDF): Marist for McClatchy Newspapers (9/26-28, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Russ Feingold (D-inc): 45

    Ron Johnson (R): 52

    Undecided: 3

    (MoE: ±4.5%)

    RI-Gov, RI-01: Brown University (9/27-29, registered voters, 6/27-30 in parens):

    Frank Caprio (D): 30 (28)

    John Robitaille (R): 14 (8)

    Lincoln Chafee (I): 23 (27)

    Undecided: 30 (32)

    (MoE: ±4.1%)

    David Cicilline (D): 39

    John Loughlin (R): 21

    Undecided: 31

    (MoE: ±6%)

    TX-Gov: Public Strategies for KENS 5 and Texas Belo TV (9/26-10/2, likely voters, no trendlines) (crosstabs – PDF):

    Bill White (D): 36

    Rick Perry (R-inc): 50

    Undecided: 9

    (MoE: ±3.7%)

    SSP Daily Digest: 10/6 (Morning Edition)

  • KY-Sen: Jack Conway has succeeded in getting a false and misleading ad by the “First Amendment Alliance” pulled off at least one television station, Louisville’s Fox 41.
  • WI-Sen: On the other side of the equation, Russ Feingold is being forced by the NFL to alter an ad which featured some footage of embarrassing end zone victory dances, including Randy Moss taunting Green Bay Packer fans. Could this really have been a mindless goof by Feingold’s media team? The Hotline’s Tim Alberta had the same thought I did: This sure was a good way to get plenty of free media coverage for this ad. (Judging by the number of Twitter mentions, at least, this ploy worked – if it was indeed the plan.)
  • AZ-08: The Smart Media Group is reporting that the DCCC has cancelled all of their ad buys in Tucson except for the final week of October. I suppose there are three ways you can interpret this news. The first is that Gabby Giffords is cruising and doesn’t need much help. The second I’ll call “panzers reconsolidating”: She’s basically doomed. And the third lies between the two: The D-Trip is performing triage, figuring that Giffords is strong enough to have a chance on her own, while other more fragile campaigns are in greater need of help. Choose your own adventure!
  • NY-24: Mike Arcuri is a lucky man. As you may recall, he created a new third party just so that he could have an extra ballot line to run on (and perhaps draw in a few votes from people who like him personally but can’t stomach the thought of pulling the lever for a Democrat). The problem: He called it the “New York Moderates” party, but state law forbids any party name from including the words “American,” ‘United States,” “National,” “New York State,” “Empire State,” or any abbreviation of those. Fortunately, a court ruled that he was able to retain the line by renaming it just the “Moderates” party.

    • Fundraising:

    • MO-Sen: Robin Carnahan: $2.1 million raised, “on par with” Roy Blunt
    • PA-Sen: Joe Sestak (D): $3.2 million raised, Pat Toomey (R): $3.8 million raised
    • CO-Gov: John Hickenlooper (D): $361K raised from 9/16-29, Dan Maes (R): $28K raised, Tom Tancredo (ACP): $149K
    • OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D): $1.6 million raised from 9/3-10/4
    • OH-15: Steve Stivers (R): $757K raised, Mary Jo Kilroy (D): $603K raised

    Independent Expenditures:

    • CT-Sen: Sources tell Aaron Blake that the DSCC has added $1.2 million to its buy here
    • OH-01: The Campaign for Working Families throws down $125K for ads to help Steve Chabot (R)
    • OR-05: CULAC the PAC chips in $34K for mail on behalf of Rep. Kurt Schrader (D)

    SSP TV:

    • NV-Sen: Harry Reid’s latest is actually half-positive/half-negative, and concludes by calling Sharron Angle “a foreign worker’s best friend”; Angle’s newest is a race-baity spot that – jeez – features footage of scary brown people sneaking through a fence (wish I were kidding)
    • PA-Sen: The DSCC also has an ad out that’s fairly race-baity, talking about Pat Toomey’s support for sending jobs to China – complete with Asian-style gong noises that were embarrassing even when John Hughes brought us Long Duk Dong more than a quarter-century ago
    • GA-Gov: In a reversal of the usual roles, Republican Nathan Deal paints himself as the friend of teachers (and education in general) in his first attack ad
    • NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo continues to sound like an anodyne Republican in his ads (cut wasteful government, blah blah), and says that Carl Paladino’s “anger is not a governing strategy”
    • AL-05: Steve Raby goes back to his mailbox to criticize Mo Brooks for being a DC tool (and then litters)
    • CA-45: In this Steve Pougnet ad, little kids singing bowdlerized versions of the “Miss Mary Mack” (Mary Bono Mack, get it?) schoolyard rhyme are annoying
    • CO-07: In an ad with weak production values, Ryan Frazier attacks Ed Perlmutter for supporting the stimulus and cap-and-trade
    • FL-12: Dennis Ross recites some conservative pabulum
    • FL-25: In a minute-long spot, Joe Garcia uses news coverage to revisit the David Rivera ramming-a-delivery-truck-carrying-his-opponents-flyers incident
    • ID-01: Walt Minnick can’t resist hitting the illegal immigration theme again – and he, too, features footage of Hispanic-looking people. Just uck
    • MN-06: A Tarryl Clark ad with really low production values stands out only because the otherwise serious-sounding female announcer declares: “Michele Bachmann: Not doing [bleep] for the people of the sixth district” (yes, there’s an actual bleep sound) [UPDATE: Gah, it’s just a fucking web ad.]
    • NC-02: Bob Etheridge hits one of my favorite attack ad topics: Renee Ellmers’ support of a 23% national sales tax
    • NV-03: As she did in her last ad, Dina Titus compares Joe Heck to Sharron Angle, this time attacking his record on education
    • NY-13: Big fucking surprise: Despite voting against healthcare reform, Mike McMahon is getting attacked on it anyway – for not supporting repeal, and for just generally siding with Pelosi & Obama. Will Democrats never learn? Don’t answer that
    • NY-20: Chris Gibson attacks Scott Murphy for supporting the stimulus. Man, it was a damn long time ago, but remember how much traction Murphy got last year by attacking Jim Tedisco (lol) for opposing the stimulus? (Not surprised to see the ad in that link has since been removed)
    • OH-18: Oh man. Clearly polls must be showing Dems that attacks on Republicans for wanting to send jobs overseas must be especially potent, ’cause here’s another one, from Zack Space. No gong in this one, though – instead, he features a prototypical Chinese dragon, and then even has the announcer say a mock “thank you” in Chinese! I really can’t wait for this election to be over

    SSP Daily Digest: 10/5 (Morning Edition)

  • AK-Sen: Hello! McFly! You ever heard of the Commerce Clause? Joe Miller evidently got quite a fine education at Yale Law, since he somehow believes that the minimum wage is “not within the scope of the powers that are given to the federal government.” Oh, yeah, “merit scholarship.” Now make like a tree and beat it!

    • P.S. Miller’s personal financial disclosures – which he promised to file last week, after ignoring the law since April – are still “going to take a little while.” Anybody home, McFly?!

  • DE-Sen: By now, you’ve probably all seen Christine O’Donnell’s new ad. If not, drop everything and watch it. It might just blow your mind. But I don’t want this other crucial item to get lost in the shuffle: In a 2006 debate, O’Donnell said that “China was plotting to take over America and claimed to have classified information about the country that she couldn’t divulge.” Reminds me of one of my all-time fave Michele Bachmann quotes.
  • KY-Sen: Rand Paul is no slouch when it comes to slagging the social safety net. At a debate this weekend, he announced that he wanted to cut Social Security benefits by raising the retirement age. And at a meeting with (who else?) the state Chamber of Commerce, he also declared that Medicaid – a program which benefits some 800,000 Kentuckians – has created “intergenerational welfare.”
  • GA-02: Those federal indictments in Alabama regarding bribery-for-bingo charges are having effects across state lines. Jay Walker was “chief strategist” for Republican Scott McKeown, who has been making some serious headway against Rep. Sanford Bishop of late. Walker, unsurprisingly, has resigned his post.
  • MN-08: Republican Chip Cravaack (yep, that’s how you spell it) is touting an internal poll from Public Opinion Strategies (n=300) showing him nipping at longtime Rep. Jim Oberstar’s heels, 45-42. Oberstar’s campaign claims that the survey was a “push poll,” but Cravaack’s campaign denies it (though they won’t release the questionnaire). I’d be surprised if a firm like POS did anything outright shady, though. Anyhow, Cravaack had just $42K on hand as of July 21 and had only raised $100K overall. Oberstar has $1.1 million in the bank.
  • WA-03: This is weird – the Lower Columbia Daily News asked GOPer Jaime Herrera for a list of campaign events she’s done since the August primary, but she refused to provide one, claiming it might be used to attack her. Denny Heck’s campaign, for their part, says they think Herrera’s all but disappeared from the campaign trail. An unofficial list shows that she supposedly did about a dozen events in this timeframe, to some 30-odd by Heck.
  • NY-State Sen: Did you know that Iona College was in the polling biz? I had no idea. Anyhow, it looks like they’ve released a couple of state Senate polls in the last few weeks (but no telling exactly how many, since I can’t seem to find a central hub for them anywhere). I’ve come across two surveys, though: In SD-35 (PDF), Dem Andrea Stewart-Cousins leads Republican Liam McLaughlin 44-37. Meanwhile, in SD-40, GOPer Greg Ball leads Dem Mike Kaplowitz 45-35. (A Siena poll yesterday of the same race had Ball up just 45-44.) The sponsor of these polls is a right-wing business group called the Westchester County Association, which also promises to poll SD-37 and NY-19.

    • Fundraising:

    • ID-01, OH-15: The Hotline has numbers for Walt Minnick and Mary Jo Kilroy
    • NY-20: Scott Murphy, $900K raised
    • NM-01: Martin Heinrich, $575K raised, >$1m on hand
    • WA-02: Rick Larsen, $500K raised

    Independent Expenditures:

    • Ophthalmologists: Those rogues are backing a rare Dem, Glenn Nye (VA-02), and a guy whose name hasn’t come up in well over a year, Erik Paulsen (MN-03), to the tune of about $65K each
    • CT-Sen: The DSCC is spending half a mil on TV for Richard Blumenthal

    SSP TV:

    • CA-Sen: Uh, is it just me, or does this ad seem like a parody of itself?
    • ND-AL: I like seeing this a lot. It’s not the greatest ad of the cycle, but here Earl Pomeroy proudly touts his support of healthcare reform (I think he was the Dem in the reddest district to vote in favor), while attacking Rick Berg for supporting the never-popular insurance companies. If you know they’re going to attack you anyway, you need to just go strong

    CO-Sen, CO-Gov: Bennet in Trouble, Hickenlooper in Command

    Marist (PDF) for McClatchy Newspapers (9/26-28, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Michael Bennet (D-inc): 42

    Ken Buck (R): 50

    Undecided: 6

    John Hickenlooper (D): 48

    Dan Maes (R): 19

    Tom Tancredo (ACP): 29

    Undecided: 4

    (MoE: ±4.5%)

    These McClatchy polls are part of a package which generally show sucky numbers for Dems. (We’ll bring you the PA & WI portions separately.) The enthusiasm gap is palpable. Among registered voters, Bennet noses Buck, 41-40. The same pattern holds true in the gubernatorial race, which is a 48-15-25 contest among RVs. That is to say, Republicans do about ten points better among LVs.

    We’re breaking Colorado out from the rest of the McClatchy pile because another pollster also has fresh nums from the Rockies.

    SurveyUSA (CO-Sen, CO-Gov) for the Denver Post/9News (9/28-30, likely voters, 7/27-29 (RVs) in parens):

    Michael Bennet (D-inc): 43 (43)

    Ken Buck (R): 48 (43)

    Undecided: 1 (7)

    John Hickenlooper (D): 46 (46)

    Dan Maes (R): 15 (24)

    Tom Tancredo (ACP): 34 (24)

    Undecided: 2 (7)

    (MoE: ±3.9%)

    More sucky numbers for Bennet. Since we only have Denver Post links, we don’t have access to the full cross-tabs yet. But the Post indicates that SUSA is still SUSA, noting: “Voters younger than 50 strongly prefer Buck, at 52 percent to 38 percent, while over-50 voters have a slight preference for Bennet.”

    SurveyUSA also shows that Tom Tancredo’s strategy of trying to marginalize Dan Maes as unelectable may be paying dividends. The problem for the Tanc, though, is that it’s pretty darn hard to drive a guy down past Alan Gold Schlesinger levels if he’s got a major party label next to his name and says he won’t drop out. Maes has been… well, I guess you could call it tenacious if you were feeling just-won-the-lottery generous and doesn’t look like a guy read to call it quits. (He even allegedly has a TV ad. Then again, supposedly Stacey Tallitsch did, too.)

    There’s still time for Maes to bail, though, and if Tancredo absorbed the vast majority of those votes, Hickenlooper would have a serious race on his hands. An irony, then: Michael Bennet probably wishes he had more time, but for Hick, November can’t come soon enough.

    P.S. Tom Jensen teases: “We polled CO Gov, CO Sen, CT Sen, CT Gov, Both NY-Sen, and NY-Gov this weekend. Only 1 of them in single digits.”