Author: DavidNYC

If true, this is going to be a titanic clash:

Rep. Denny Rehberg (R-Mont.) will announce Saturday he is challenging Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.).

“It’s happening Saturday,” said a knowledgeable Montana GOP political operative. “He’s running. There is a lot of support and enthusiasm back home, and Denny knows he can win.”

And some internal polling, including a weird three-way matchup:

The operative offered some internal Rehberg polling numbers showing the Montana Republican in a statistical tie with Tester in a prospective 2012 matchup.

The Opinion Diagnostics survey of 400 likely Montana voters showed 49 percent backing Rehberg compared with 43 percent for Tester and 8 percent undecided. In a three-way matchup featuring Democratic Gov. Brian Schweitzer running as an independent, Rehberg led 44 percent to Tester’s 28 percent and Schweitzer’s 18 percent. Eleven percent were undecided.

The poll, conducted Jan. 5, has a margin of error of 4.65 percent.

SSP is on the verge of publishing our senate race ratings, and internally, we’d already agreed that MT-Sen was a Tossup prior to this announcement. This news confirms our view that this race will definitely start life as a Tossup.

Public Policy Polling (PDF) (1/14-16, Texas Republican primary voters, no trendlines):

David Dewhurst (R): 23

Ron Paul (R): 21

Greg Abbott (R): 14

Joe Barton (R): 7

Elizabeth Ames Jones (R): 6

Ted Cruz (R): 3

Tom Leppert (R): 3

Michael Williams (R): 3

Roger Williams (R): 1

Other/undecided: 19

(MoE: ±4.9%)

With Kay Bailey Hutchison heading off to a farm upstate, PPP does another one of their genre-busting “let’s throw everyone into the pigpen and see who’s Head Hog” primary polls, a format I admit I’m growing to appreciate. In these early surveys, it’s always the guys with the most name rec who lead the way, so it’s no surprise to see Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst slopping it up at the head of the trough, though 39% of GOP voters still don’t know him. Ron Paul is next in line; PPP didn’t test his favorables, but we can guess they must higher than your average congressman’s – like, say, Smokey Joe Barton, dwelling in the single digits. State AG Greg Abbott occupies the “roast beef” slot, to round out the top tier.

Who are the other piglets? You’ve got Elizabeth Ames Jones, one of three members of the Texas Railroad Commission, all of whom are elected statewide. (Despite the name, the commission doesn’t supervise railroads, but rather the all-important oil-and-gas industry.) Teabagger fave Michael Williams is also on the RRC, and Ted Cruz is the former state Solicitor General, now making rain in private practice despite his tender age. Rounding out the list are Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert and former TX Sec. of State Roger Williams. Whew!

Interestingly, most of these potential candidates are already in the race or taking serious steps it. Cruz just made it official, and Jones, the only woman in the mix, did the same a few days later. Bush père-endorsed Roger Williams is already in the race. Michael Williams recently announced he plans to step down from the railroad commission, so that probably means only one thing. (In fact, he’ll supposedly announce today.) Leppert’s sending similar signals: a couple of weeks ago he said that he wouldn’t seek re-election as mayor.

Abbott’s still in “rumored” territory, and Barton’s saying he’s unlikely to run if the mega-wealthy Dewhurst gets in, which most folks seem to expect. A lot of people also seem to think that Dewhurst, thanks to his profile and money, will have magical field-clearing powers, but at least one columnist isn’t so sure. Since Dewhurst very firmly has “establishment” branded on his hide, it’s not hard to imagine a teabagger-fueled toppling. Just think about how Rick Perry positioned himself against KBH last year.

An additional name not on PPP’s list is Rep. Michael McCaul, who said he’s not ruling out a run. McCaul probably needs a redistricting bailout if he’s to survive into the next decade, and it would make the lives of Republican state legislators easier if they didn’t have to worry about him seeking re-election, but a senatorial run hardly seems like a better bet.

One guy who doesn’t seem likely to run is His Paulness. Ron initially said to Politico that he was “flattered” by his showing in this poll, and then told The Hill that the prospect of running for senate had “certainly crossed my mind.” But a day later, he was already telling the National Journal that “I don’t think it’s a real possibility.” Apparently, says the NJ, Paul is “waiting to see whether the strength of the nation’s currency improves before deciding whether to run.” It’s not clear to me which direction the dollar heads will make him more likely to get in, but as Crisitunity says: “Seeing as how we’re unlikely to return to the gold standard any time soon, draw your own conclusions.”

Public Policy Polling (PDF) (1/14-16, Texas voters, no trendlines):

Chet Edwards (D): 31

David Dewhurst (R): 50

Undecided: 19

Chet Edwards (D): 31

Elizabeth Ames Jones (R): 44

Undecided: 25

Chet Edwards (D): 30

Tom Leppert (R): 46

Undecided: 24

Chet Edwards (D): 31

Michael Williams (R): 42

Undecided: 27

John Sharp (D): 31

David Dewhurst (R): 49

Undecided: 19

John Sharp (D): 30

Elizabeth Ames Jones (R): 44

Undecided: 26

John Sharp (D): 30

Tom Leppert (R): 42

Undecided: 28

John Sharp (D): 30

Michael Williams (R): 42

Undecided: 28

Julian Castro (D): 25

David Dewhurst (R): 53

Undecided: 23

Julian Castro (D): 27

Elizabeth Ames Jones (R): 48

Undecided: 25

Julian Castro (D): 25

Tom Leppert (R): 48

Undecided: 27

Julian Castro (D): 26

Michael Williams (R): 45

Undecided: 29

(MoE: ±3.3%)

Doesn’t look good out there. Ex-Rep. Chet Edwards, former state Comptroller John Sharp, and San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro can’t get higher than 31% against any Republican in the field.

The key difficulty in drawing up target lists of potentially vulnerable House Republicans is, of course, redistricting. It’s simply hard for us to know what most districts will look like come 2012. But some seats simply can’t or won’t change too much, whether by virtue of geography, politics, law or custom. I’m thinking, for instance, that the 2012 edition of Charlie Bass’s NH-02 is unlikely to look very different from the 2010 version – and that Bass will be his usual weaksauce self, all but inviting a top-tier challenge. And Bass’s next-door neighbor, the corrupt Frank Guinta, will probably wind up in the same boat.

These can’t be the only two guys to make our early lists, though. Who else do you think will have a pretty stable district, and ought to face some trouble?

Diarist roguemapper has a great post up featuring the creation of new majority-minority VRA districts in several southern states. I like these maps, but I don’t expect the Obama DOJ to be this aggressive in requiring new maj-min seats – and I also think that many southern legislators probably won’t be interested in drawing lines like these. As most Swingnuts are aware, heavily black districts have operated as Democratic vote sinks for two decades now, helping Republicans win seats abruptly depopulated of reliable blue votes. But with the southern realignment finally complete, I don’t think there are too many GOP officials in Alabama, for instance, who think they can’t easily hold 6 of 7 congressional districts.

In fact, this is exactly what the Republicans are planning on:

The likely result is a new congressional map that protects all six Republican congressmen and keeps intact the majority black district home to the only Democrat, according to U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Saks.

So the challenge to you is to create a map that packs as many African Americans into a single district in Alabama as you possibly can. No rules, and no prizes other than bragging rights (or maybe a job working for the Republicans on the redistricting committee). I figure there are three rough categories, though: compact (aka goo-goo fetishist-style), ugly but beautiful (aka abgin-style), and supremely ugly with touch-point contiguity (aka andgarden-style). Post as many entries (in as many styles) as you like.

Have fun, and share your results in comments!

P.S. If for some reason you’ve made it this far but haven’t yet encountered the glory that is Dave’s Redistricting App, well go and check it out! It’s the essential tool for any citizen redistricting efforts.

UPDATE: So far it looks like the most extreme gerrymander belongs to goohiost7, whose district is 81.5% African American.

We don’t take off odd-numbered years here at SSP, because we know that you don’t, either. There are a handful of bigger races taking place in 2011, but we want to hear about the elections happening in your neck of the woods that most folks aren’t really paying attention to. The Houston Chronicle has a look at a handful of interesting races going on this year, but we know this community can go much further into the weeds. So talk to us, people!

UPDATE 3: Huffington Post reports that a surgeon is “very optimistic” on Giffords’ chances of recovery. Sadly, at least one patient taken in from the shooting, a child, has died. Altogether, six people have died, including a Giffords aide.

UPDATE 2: Politico says that Giffords’ office is saying she is not dead.

UPDATE: NPR is now saying Rep. Giffords has died. Several others as well.

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My god:

U.S. Rep. Gabrielle Giffords of Arizona was shot outside a grocery store in Tucson while holding a public event, Arizona Public Media reported Saturday.

Giffords, who was re-elected to her third term in November, was hosting her first “Congress on Your Corner” event at the Safeway in northwest Tucson when a gunman ran up and started shooting, according to Peter Michaels, news director of Arizona Public Media.

At least five other people, including members of her staff, were hurt. Giffords was transported to University Medical Center in Tucson. Her condition was not immediately known.

Giffords was talking to a couple when the man ran up firing indiscriminately, and then ran off, Michaels said. According to other witnesses, the was tackled by a bystander and taken into custody.

This is just beyond, beyond, beyond horrible. All I can do is just hope everyone is okay.

Yeah, that’s what we’re calling it.

At 11am Eastern on Tuesday, the Census Bureau will release population data which will tell us how the House of Representatives will be reapportioned. What are your predictions for which states will gain seats – and which will lose? As a guidepost, you can check out Election Data Services’ most recent projection here. Have at it!

It’s time for a new one of these.

Public Policy Polling (PDF) (12/10-12, Ohio voters, no trendlines):

Sherrod Brown (D-inc): 43

Mike DeWine (R): 43

Undecided: 14

Sherrod Brown (D-inc): 43

Jon Husted (R): 38

Undecided: 18

Sherrod Brown (D-inc): 43

Jim Jordan (R): 35

Undecided: 22

Sherrod Brown (D-inc): 40

Mary Taylor (R): 38

Undecided: 22

(MoE: ±4.3%)

Says Tom Jensen:

Ohio voters are pretty evenly divided on whether Brown’s done a good job in office so far – 40% approve of his performance while 37% disapprove. Democrats overwhelmingly like him, by a 66/9 spread. Republicans for the most part dislike him with only 16% approving to 62% who disapprove. The biggest problem for Brown though is independents – with them only 28% approve to 48% disapproving. To put those numbers into some perspective Ted Strickland, who was just defeated for reelection, is at a 38/42 spread with independents.

This race is likely to be priority #1 for progressives this cycle – and it won’t be an easy one.