The key difficulty in drawing up target lists of potentially vulnerable House Republicans is, of course, redistricting. It’s simply hard for us to know what most districts will look like come 2012. But some seats simply can’t or won’t change too much, whether by virtue of geography, politics, law or custom. I’m thinking, for instance, that the 2012 edition of Charlie Bass’s NH-02 is unlikely to look very different from the 2010 version – and that Bass will be his usual weaksauce self, all but inviting a top-tier challenge. And Bass’s next-door neighbor, the corrupt Frank Guinta, will probably wind up in the same boat.
These can’t be the only two guys to make our early lists, though. Who else do you think will have a pretty stable district, and ought to face some trouble?
He only won in a wave, and is far too conservative for his district. Although he could surprise us, it will not be easy for to win in a non-wave year without some extreme gerrymandering, which is not likely given the amendments that were passed.
I would assume at least some of the gains for the GOP in NY will be erased easily by redistricting and NY losing two seats. Not sure who it will be exactly.
And obviously, with Dems controlling everything in Maryland, Harris will be taken out, if not both Harris and Bartlett, if Dems get creative.
Lots of IL Repubs will be out, hopefully Shock, he annoys me.
Also suspect Rivera in FL will be out with investigations regardless. Oh and Allen West.
And whoever beat Oberstar (forget his name) will be gone. Duluth, in a normal year, won’t stand for being represented by a Repub.
Should be targeted. But their districts could significantly change during redistricting.
California Republicans I would put on that list. But some might be so endangered by the new map that they won’t even bother to run (David Dreier seems a likely candidate).
Yeah, redistricting makes this hard.
I think that whatever the map looks like, Lou Barletta will have a tough run.
Allen West is the least likely congresscritter to be back; no way his district will be as Republican with the new fair districts law.
I don’t know how Tim Walberg’s district will be made more Republican. Thad McCotter as well.
If Ohio tries to split up Columbus again, then Stivers is an obvious choice. In an election year, we’ll try to take out Chabot again. I think we should go after IN-08 as well.
Sean Duffy is an appealing target, as is Lee Terry. If Nebraska doesn’t change the electoral vote splitting law, Obama will target the district, allowing someone like, say, Tom White to win.
We shouldn’t give up AR-01 and AR-02 so easily. Causey did relatively well against Crawford. I’d also go after Martha Roby in Alabama, though I don’t know how black her district will be. I’d also take a shot at Paul Ryan’s district. Nothing would be more demoralizing to the GOP to take out their “wunderkind.” Obama should win his district no matter what redistricting does.
Go after Robert Hurt. Charlottesville will see high turnout; why not make a shot for it? Also, go after Joe Wilson, who would have lost if Obama was on the ballot.
Matheson in Utah, no way rep leg. will allow a dem a marginal seat in R+20 state, salt lake goes 4 ways
In NC Kissell- Charlotte AA’s out of district- loses, Miller- suspect Reps will add vote sink with Price- may lose
IN- Donnelly- Gone
MI- Peters and Levin district combined
OH- Sutton and Kucinich combined
Penn- Critz- Gone
TX- Doggett in primary, seat becomes Hispanic, reps go 2-2 in 4 new seats, Faronthold made more Rep
GA- Barrow district goes from 45 AA to 30’s
Iowa- Latham and Boswell combined, Latham favored
Missouri- Carnahan will combine with Akin, Akin wins in Lean Rep district
Prob left out a few…
keep on dreaming nycyoungin. all the Republican freshman will probably will be put into safe districts.
I don’t have to go over Quayle’s many moments of weaksauce, and if redistricting puts him in a tougher district then he’s probably in serious trouble, perhaps from a rematch by Jon Hulbred or a run by term-limited Phoenix mayor Phil Gordon (hey, depending on redistricting, we could get even someone much more desirable then those two; Rep. Kysten Sinema has a nice ring to it…). Regardless, he might be in serious trouble from a primary challenger in a less crowded field, perhaps from one of the stronger 2010 also-rans like Jim Waring or Steve Moak.
Someone who has gotten much less attention but I think might be vulnerable is Paul Gosar. Despite Ann Kirkpatrick folding like a cheap suit in the race last year, and the general turn against Democrats by rural voters being felt strongly in Arizona, Gosar only managed to clock in at just under 50%. I don’t know that redistricting will do him any favors; he’ll probably keep Yavapai County (always essential to Republican wins) but will probably only shave off parts of Republican Pinal County for equally Republican parts of Mohave or Cochise County and leave it at that. To boot, one essential part of Rick Renzi’s winning strategy was that he was willing to work his ass off for the normally-Democratic Navajo Nation, which really paid off (Renzi actually won the Navajo Nation in 2004 and still had a strong showing there in 2006). Gosar hasn’t show any interest in engaging the Navajo’s in the same way.
I’ll throw in David Schweikert as well. He’s much stronger than these other two, but has the most Democratic district of the three and will have to deal with a surge in ASU turnout related to Obama (even if Obama doesn’t seriously contest the state) and possibly some rough redistricting (note that Obama actually won this district if you cut out Scottsdale and Fountain Hills; of course Schweikert lives in Fountain Hills so if that happens, he could run in whatever district contains his base and leave a slightly Democratic seat open in the West Valley, and I’ll take that option too).
Can he re-run?
NM-02 had the wildest swings in recent elections. D-R shares : 40-60 in 2006, 55-45 in 2008, 45-55 in 2010. With former Blue Dog Harry Teague out of the picture and Pearce turned into a birther-teabagger the seat should be a prime target. The district is also directly across the state border from AZ-08 and the shockwave from the Tucson shooting was felt there. 2012 won’t be a good year for teabaggers in NM. Or so I hope anyway… Any candidate should also ride on Bingaman’s coattails. Jeff is really popular all over the state and has shown every intention of running again next year.
In a presidential year, Pennsylvania Democrats are much stronger. We should target Meehan, Gerlach, Dent, and Murphy. All of them are vulnerable, I think, regardless of redistricting.
NY- Prob Berkle but Maybe Hanna- Also A Dem Seat in NYC
Maryland- Doesnt look good for Harris
Florida- West will be a problem, thinks Dems take that and split new seats 1-1 so 19-8 rep
NJ- Either Runyan or Lance, but maybe Northern Dem instead-50/50 D/R
Ill- Killing Field- 11-8 Rep to 12-6 Dem
That’s About It I think
Good ridistricting blog called Drawing the Lines http://russwalker.tumblr.com/
We won’t know the makeup or shape of the districts but central/South Florida are going to be important. I’m more optomoistic then most probably about Florida cause I think floridans will have Scott fatigue and Nelson is popular and will help somewhat down ballot. If Obama is doing well in the state then we should be able to win at least a few house seats. West and Rivera are the low hanging fruit but there likely will be more.
With former rep. Tony Sertich out of the running, we have a wide open field and a big bench. I imagine the DCCC has been calling all the state legislators from the Iron Range area asking who wants to be a Congresscritter. State Rep. Ruckavina could be interesting, or senate minority leader Bakk.
let me ask how likely it is that districts that aren’t in states that are gaining or losing a seat will change?
Assuming these districts don’t change too much, here’s a few that might be worth looking at:
-Alabama: 02, 03, 05
We won all of those recently, even if Griffith did switch parties. We probably aren’t going to get very liberal Democrats in any of these districts, but that’s probably okay.
-Kansas: 02, 03, 04
Upon first glance, I don’t think it’s possible to make any of them drastically more Republican without making the others more Democratic. But even if it is, would they want to change them?
-Kentucky 02, 04
These have very high PVIs, but the Democrats got kind of close in 02 in 2008. The problem is that this district has never not reelected an incumbent in its history, but why not try to make history? They didn’t get that close in 04, but if 2012 is a better year than 2010 and we find a good candidate, perhaps something can be done.
Maybe Brad Ellsworth could make a comeback in IN-8 if it looks similar to how it does now, but we don’t yet know whether Larry Bucshon is going to be as awesomely incompetent an incumbent as John Hostettler was.
1. Allen West- His current district is too liberal for a firebrand like him. He’ll be in much worse shape after the redistricting.
2. Bob Dold- He’ll probably wind up with a D+10 or worse district.
3. Bobby Schilling- His district is a malfunctioning vote sink. There’s no reason for Democrats not to eliminate it. I don’t think the Illinois redistricting will be as devastating to Republicans as some people on SSP think. Two or three casualties at most, IMHO.
4. Ann Buerkle- I was surprised she won at all, frankly.
5. Charlie Bass- He doesn’t seem to be well-liked in his Democrat-tilting district.
There are a ton of targets for Democrats, but a lot of them (like Steve Stivers, Richard Hanna, Lou Barletta, Blake Farenthold) will probably get safer districts. This isn’t the same environment for Congressional Dems as in 2006 and 2008, where they could easily capture Republican seats that were R+5 or lower.
And instead the thread got hijacked into another what should/will/might happen in redistricting conversation.
To answer your original question my thoughts are as follows:
NH-01, NH-02 – agree with your thinking.
MT-AL if Rehberg runs for Senate.
AZ-01 – no matter what happens in redistricting this district wont change much, is bluing and the 2008 mcCain margin is distorted by the home state factor.
AR-01/02 – One of these two must be gettable after redistricting especially as we control the maps!
MD-01 – Ireespective of what redistricting does this one should be ripe. Harris is a nutter. Kratovil can beat him in 2012.
NM-02 – Again i wouldve thought that no matter what redistricting throws up this is a potential battlefeld.
Upstate New York – There will be vulnerable GOP freshmen here come hell or high water.
A very short list but that just points out how critical redistricting is 🙂
if I am calculating it right.
1. NY-25 – Buerkle
2. IL-10 – Dold
3. NH-02 – Bass
4. NV-03 – Heck
5. MN-08 – Cravaack
6. WA-08 – Reichert
7. IL-08 – Walsh
8. TX-27 – Farenthold
9. NJ-03 – Runyan
10. NC-02 – Ellmers
11. PA-11 – Barletta
12. PA-08 – Fitzpatrick
13. WI-07 – Duffy
14. WA-03 – Herrera
15. OH-01 – Chabot
16. IL-17 – Schilling
17. FL-22 – West
18. MI-07 – Walberg
19. PA-07 – Meehan
20. IL-14 – Hultgren
21. OH-06 – Johnson
22. NY-24 – Hanna
23. NY-19 – Hayworth
24. PA-06 – Gerlach
25. NY-13 – Grimm
26. WI-08 – Ribble
27. TX-23 – Canseco
28. PA-15 – Dent
29. NH-01 – Guinta
30. OH-15 – Stivers
31. NY-20 – Gibson
32. CO-03 – Tipton
33. VA-05 – Hurt
34. OH-12 – Tiberi
35. CA-45 – Bono-Mack
36. IL-11 – Kinzinger
37. MI-01 – Benishek
38. AZ-05 – Schweikert
39. CA-03 – Lungren
40. PA-03 – Kelly
41. FL-25 – Rivera
42. MI-11 – McCotter
43. FL-12 – Ross
44. OH-16 – Renacci
45. MN-03 – Paulsen
46. FL-08 – Webster
47. AZ-01 – Gosar
48. IL-06 – Roskam
49. VA-02 – Rigell
50. NJ-07 – Lance
I’ve already made a list, but of that list, here’s who I deem to be the most vulnerable:
AZ-3: Ben Quayle
AR-1: Rick Crawford
CA-3: Dan Lungren
CA-44: Ken Calvert
CA-50: Brian Bilbray
FL-22: Allen West
FL-25: David Rivera
IL-10: Bob Dold
IL-13: Judy Biggert
IL-17: Bobby Schilling
MN-8: Chip Craavack
NH-2: Charlie Bass
NJ-2: Frank LoBiondo
NJ-3: Jon Runyan
NY-25: Ann Marie Buerkle
OH-12: Pat Tiberi
OH-15: Steve Stivers
PA-15: Charlie Dent
TX-27: Blake Farenthold
Of these, I’d say 6(Buerkle, Craavack, Dold, Farenthold, Schilling, and West) are already gone for the GOP. Dold and Frank LoBiondo represent districts equally or more Democratic than what Mike Castle represented. We can win if someone other than Seals(IL-10) and stronger than Kurkowski(NJ-2). Bilbray is possible if someone other than Busby runs. Come 2012, a soda cap could crush Buerkle and Farenthold. Dent and Tiberi under-performed in their races in 2010. 2012 will surely be more Democratic than 2010.
I wouldn’t say West has the most in trouble, only because his state is gaining two seats. He doesn’t really live in his district anyway, and I think if there’s a new district somewhere close, he can migrate over. He’s a sitting Rep. who didn’t seem to have too much history with his area anyway. He’s going to have a tough road, but not as tough as some of the Reps. whose states are losing seats, or who really bucked the trend in 2010, but are in states that are going to be more static. I just think that the extra seats and the new law will shake up Florida’s districts more than maybe any other state, so I think he’ll find a place to sit.
You’ve got 3 freshmen and sophomore Lynn “Great White Hope” Jenkins and Kansas Republicans have to pull off what Utah Republicans do except with a less red state, though they don’t have to defeat Dennis Moore/Jim Matheson.
Either Jenkins or Yoder is probably going to get hurt, at least a little–it’s almost impossible without a major re-draw of the map. And despite his impressive win over Stephene Moore, I don’t think Yoder will get a sophomore bounce. He’s got some baggage that KS officeholders usually don’t have, and don’t even get me started on Lynn Jenkins.
Still the redistricting process advance not enough for know what seats will chang or what seats will not. But I think the democratic party can follow some trends:
REPUBLICANS WHAT CAN RUN IN D+ OR EVEN:
Maryland: I would target strongly both republican incumbents since the local stablishment. I would work in both districts as if they will become safe democratic districts. That would add pressure for make a good and necessary 8-0 map in the redistricting process of Maryland.
MD-01 A Harris
MD-06 R Bartlet
Illinois: The same for Illinois. Since the local democratic statablisment every republican incumbent must be targeted and they must work like in a safe democratic seat (no matter the current rating of the district). Surely the strongest democratic challengers can be favored by the map makers. At this point every republican incumbent in Illinois would be in the same risk. For the list I take IL-19 as generic seat for dissapear and the remaining 10 as generic very endangered seats.
IL-19 J Shimkus (generic district what dissappear)
IL-15 T Johnson
IL-18 A Schock
IL-16 D Manzullo
IL-08 J Walsh
IL-11 A Kinzinger
IL-13 J Biggert
IL-14 R Hultgren
IL-06 P Roscam
IL-17 R Schilling
IL-10 R Dold
New Hampshire: The redistricting process will give not significative changes in the current districts, then both must be obvious targets as districts with favorable rating in republican hands.
NH-02 C Bass
NH-01 F Guinta
Arkansas: The democrats from Arkansas will control the redistricting process, and that give the chance to the democrats from Little Rock of find a strong challenge against T Griffin in a favorable district what can go to the black counties of the east or can go toward Washingto county. Like for Maryland and Illinois a previous strong challenge would make difficult to the map makers give not a positive answer.
AR-02 T Giffin
Colorado: The redistricting process can give some favorable results to the democrats. I think the redistricting commission can have some democratic leaning.
CO-03 S Tipton
CO-04 C Gardner ?
Looking for more.
About the states where the republicans have the control of the redistricting process, better work in silence because the republicans can apply some gerrymander against strong premature challenges.
Much as I dislike the man, breaking up his seat would result in a dummymander and could possibly eliminate Costello as well. It’s best to leave it as is and focus on the other R congressman.
should be targeted. He is the ultimate Texas Backbencher and the state senator John Whitmire has 5 million dollars in his campaign account to take him on.
CA24 because I dont see the new commission deliberately bleeding Democrats in Ventura County for CA23. I see CD23 being San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties, absorbing the portions of CD24 in those counties, leaving a CD23 which will be lean or likely D, rather than super safe D. Any district starting from the city of Santa Barbara should at the very least lean D. Since those two counties together make up almost a complete district, on the mid-coast of Ca, it seems an obvious base for a CD.
CD24 could become a tossup or lean district, or even likely D, depending on the exact lines it retains in Ventura county. The exact lines it retains within Ventura County is the critical factor.
CA26 is an obvious gerrymander, combining the most R portions of the peripheral northern San Gabriel Valley with portions of San Bernardino County.
I see CD26 going further south into the eastern San Gabriel Valley, losing the more western enclaves it has in the San Fernando Valley.
If Obama contests Indiana as seriously as he did in 2008, then IN-8 and IN-9 should be obvious targets. Not sure what’s going to come out of redistricting, the new Republican trifecta may give Bucshon the boot by combining Bloomington with Evansville.
Being a fomer IU College Democrat, I can tell you Bloomington won’t allow itself to have a Republican congressman for long.
Harris has to be one of the most endangered GOPers.
I’m hopeful the state legislature won’t destroy the 1st district for partisan gain, having gone to college on the Eastern Shore (and done some media buyinig for Wayne Gilchrest) I think it’s important to have the shore and bay area represented in congress (Maybe they’ll just link Hartford County to the 6th, cutting Harris off at the knees without taking apart the traditional 1st district lines).