Author: DavidNYC

Mason-Dixon (5/3-5, likely voters, 1/18-20 in parens):

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 44 (52)

Bill Halter (D): 32 (34)

D.C. Morrison (D): 7 (n/a)

Undecided: 17

(MoE: ±5%)

John Boozman (R): 48

Jim Holt (R): 17

Gilbert Baker (R): 11

Kim Hendren (R): 5

Conrad Reynolds (R): 2

Curtis Coleman (R): 1

Other: 1

Undecided: 15

(MoE: ±5%)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 35

John Boozman (R): 52

Undecided: 13

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 39 (39)

Gilbert Baker (R): 47 (43)

Undecided: 14 (18)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 40 (43)

Jim Holt (R): 45 (37)

Undecided: 15 (20)

Bill Halter (D): 32

John Boozman (R): 56

Undecided: 12

Bill Halter (D): 34

Gilbert Baker (R): 42

Undecided: 24

Bill Halter (D): 36

Jim Holt (R): 42

Undecided: 22

(MoE: ±4%)

Remember, in Arkansas, if one candidate fails to get 50% on May 18, then we’ll have a run-off on June 8th. The entry of weirdo Paulist D.C. Morrison suggests that this is a possibility on the Dem side, and the fractured GOP field might also yield a run-off, unless John Boozman can seal the deal soon – which he may be close to doing. In light of this, run-off hopeful Gilbert Baker has released his own numbers (PDF) from The Political Firm showing him in second place with 22% (with Boozman at 44 and Jim Holt! in third with just 8). Research 2000 will have a new survey out this week, and I’m sure they won’t be alone.

AR-Sen: While offering a commencement address at the University of Arkansas at Pine Bluff, Michelle Obama gave a shout-out to all the Democratic bigwigs sharing the dais with her: Gov. Mike Beebe, his wife Ginger, Sen. Blanche Lincoln, Sen. Mark Pryor and even state AG Bobby Dustin McDaniel. Everyone, that is, except for Lt. Gov. Bill Halter, who was also on stage. Stay classy, Michelle.

KS-Sen: The not-particularly pleasant GOP race to succeed Sam Brownback has gotten even uglier, with Rep. Todd Tiahrt accusing frontrunner Rep. Jerry Moran of pulling “a John Kerry” flip-flop on tax cuts. Moran, leading in the polls, has largely been sticking to a Rose Garden strategy and refusing to respond to Tiahrt’s provocations.

NV-Sen: Sue Lowden’s mom must have taught her as a child that if you pick at a scab repeatedly, it will heal faster. That can be the only explanation for Lowden’s newest TV ad, in which she brings up the damn chicken business yet again!

PA-Sen: Joe Sestak now has a four-point lead over Arlen Specter in Muhlenberg’s tracking poll, 46-42. A day earlier, Sestak took his first-ever lead in public polling in the tracker. Also, here’s a good observation: Specter voted against Elana Kagan when she was nominated to be Solicitor General. Now that it looks like she’s going to be tapped for the Supreme Court, he’ll have to very publicly flip-flop on this one barely a week before the primary.

UT-Sen: As you probably saw by now, longtime Utah Sen. Bob Bennett was denied renomination at the GOP convention this past Saturday. Instead, businessman Tim Bridgewater and attorney Mike Lee will duke it out in a June 22nd primary. Lee seems to be the teabagger fave, as he immediately garnered Jim DeMint’s endorsement once he made it past the third and final round of voting.

Meanwhile, Bennett is still holding out the possibility of waging a write-in campaign – which is not out of the question given that Utahns in general like him a lot more than Republican convention delegates. My understanding, though, is that he could only run as a write-in in the general election, not the primary.

Anyhow, while Bennett’s never self-funded before (so far as I know), he is actually extremely wealthy, with assets potentially in excess of $30 million. If turnout is about 600K voters and a Dem can get a third of that, then Bennett only needs 200K to win a squeaker. On the flipside, John Cornyn is pledging to support the GOP nominee, and in modern times, I think only Strom Thurmond has gotten elected to the Senate via write-in. But nevermind all that – do it, Bob… for America!

FL-Gov: Surely by now you’ve heard about anti-gay activist George Rekers’ European escapades with a young man he hired from a site called Rentboy. If not, read this now. The story just got a lot better, though, with word that Florida AG Bill McCollum once paid Rekers at least $60,000 to serve as an expert witness for the state’s attempt to ban gay adoptions. Rekers’ testimony was rejected by the judge as not credible, and the ban was found unconstitutional. All in a day’s work!

KY-Gov: Kentucky’s gubernatorial seat isn’t up until 2011, but a trio of media outlets commissioned a poll from Research 2000 nonetheless. It finds Gov. Steve Beshear leading House Speaker Greg Stumbo in a hypothetical primary, 55-28. In the general election, it shows Beshear up 44-37 over GOP Ag. Comm’r Richie Farmer. Beshear’s job approval is 46-43 and he has $1.9 million in the bank.

NY-Gov: Ordinarily, you need 25% of the weighted delegate vote at a state convention to qualify for the ballot in New York. But because Steve Levy is not yet a registered Republican, GOP rules require him to get 50%. It sounds, though, like there may be some movement afoot to more or less knock that requirement back down to 25%.

CT-05: Some Dude Kie Westby is dropping out of the crowded GOP race to take on Rep. Chris Murphy. Westby endorsed state Sen. Sam Caligiuri on his way out. Quite a few Republicans remain in this primary.

MD-04: State Del. Herman Taylor says he’s challenging Rep. Donna Edwards in the Democratic primary. It sounds like Taylor might be taking Edwards on from the right, saying she’s “out of touch with the business community” (those are the Maryland Gazette’s words, not necessarily his). Meanwhile, it sure sounds like Edwards herself has gone native: Despite the fact that she owes her seat to a primary challenge, she now says “it would be ‘very hard’ for her to support a primary challenger like herself,” according to The Nation. It never changes.

MI-09: Former state Rep. Rocky Raczkowski put out an internal poll showing him up 26-15 over businessman Paul Welday, with a whole lotta people undecided.

NY-23: Like some kind of Archie Comics love triangle involving Betty, Veronica, and Jughead, newcomer Matt Doheny is wooing the Club for Growth away from their former not-so-golden boy, Doug Hoffman. (The Club now says it’s “hard to say” whom they will endorse, if anyone.) Maybe toss in Moose, too, since the Conservative Party is making it extra-interesting by sticking with Hoffman.

PA-12: This ain’t good news for Team Blue: Dem Mark Critz reported having just $73K in the bank in his pre-election FEC report, while GOPer Tim Burns has $308K. I don’t feel too good about this one.

UT-02: In case you missed it, Dem Rep. Jim Matheson is being forced into his first-ever primary come June 22nd, thanks to the vote taken at the state’s Democratic convention this past weekend. Retired teacher Claudia Wright nabbed 45% of the delegates on Saturday, clearing the 40% hurdle to get her name on the primary ballot. The winner will take on ex-state Rep. Morgan Philpot, who has raised just $27K so far. Wright has raised $9K, while Matheson has taken in a million bucks and has $1.4 mil on hand.

WV-01: I was wondering when this was going to happen: The DCCC has finally sent some help to Rep. Alan Mollohan, who faces a stiff primary challenge from the right in the form of state Sen. Mike Oliverio. The election is tomorrow, though, so I wonder if, Coakley-style, this assistance is going to be too little, too late. While I carry no brief for Mollohan, he is almost certainly better than Oliverio, who is buddy-buddy with the state GOP.

Meanwhile, on the GOP side, the cat fud is flying fast and furious. Attorney Mac Warner says he won’t support ex-state Rep. David McKinley if he wins the nomination, claiming McKinley’s “gone way over the line in personal attacks and distortions of the truth.” (Welcome to politics, bub.) In general, the primary has been very negative, with much of the fire aimed at McKinley.

New Jersey: A New Jersey appellate court dinged Chris Christie’s attempt to unilaterally restrict campaign contributions by unions, saying that legislation would instead be required.

Polling: Tom Jensen, who has penned many dour but accurate notes about the rough shape Dems find themselves in this cycle, draws together some surprising threads and finds recent good polling news for Team Blue in five senate races.

UPDATE 7: So the final tally for the GOP senate nomination is, per Dave Catanese:

Tim Bridgewater: 57.2%

Mike Lee: 42.7%

Since Bridgewater failed to clear 60%, that means there wil be a primary on June 22nd, same as with UT-02 for the Dems.

UPDATE 6: WOW. Jim Matheson 55%, Claudia Wright 45%. There will be a primary.

UPDATE 5: It’s been very hard to get news out of the UT Dem convention, but I suggest following the #utdem hashtag on Twitter. It looks like results may be announced soon.

UPDATE 4: It’s official – Bob Bennett won’t make it to the third round of voting:

Tim Bridgewater: 37.42%

Mike Lee: 35.99%

Bob Bennett: 26.59%

Bennett picked up almost no votes after the first round. Between Lee and Bridgewater, I have no idea whom to root for, though.

UPDATE 3: Reid Wilson says Bennett will not advance to the third round. Mike Allen says he may run a write-in campaign.

UPDATE 2: So the top three candidates advance to the second round, meaning Bennett barely survives – for another hour or so. According to the timestamp on this post, second-round results are expected around 5:30pm Eastern.

Also, over at the Dem convention, it appears that no voting has taken place yet, but on Twitter, it sounds like there may be a surprising level of enthusiasm for Jim Matheson’s challenger, Claudia Wright. She needs 40% to force a primary.

UPDATE: The first round of results are in:

Lee 982 – 28.75%

Bridgewater 917 – 26.84%

Bennett 885 – 25.91%

Eagar 541 – 15.84%

Cook 49 – 1.43%

Fabiano 22 – .64%

Freidbaum 16 – .47%

Chiu 4 – .12%

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Today the Utah GOP will be having their statewide convention for the U.S. Senate nomination. The Salt Lake Tribue has this explanation of how it will unfold. Note that all times are Mountain Crazy Time:

Schedule reminder: Convention kicks off at 10 a.m., and the roughly 7-minute Senate speeches start at 10:45 a.m. They will speak in this order – Bridgewater, Bennett, Friedbaum, Fabiano, Cook, Chiu, Lee and Eagar. After that the first round,  balloting will commence; expect to start voting around 11:50 a.m. That brings us to the final three candidates.

The second round of balloting will come around 1:40 p.m. after the speeches for governor (who doesn’t want to hear what SuperDell has to say), and the three congressional districts (1st – Bishop vs. Ridgeway; 2nd – Philpot vs.Walter vs. Eliason; 3rd Chaffetz vs. nobody)

If a third round of balloting is necessary (count on it), that would take place after the discussion of platform changes and resolutions, estimated at 3 p.m., but hey, you know how these things get pushed back.

So the first round of voting should start just before 2pm Eastern.

Results: Trib | UT GOP | Twitter

Live video:

Any predictions, before voting starts?

P.S. Johnny Longtorso reminds us in comments that the UT Dems are also holding their convention today. The one thing to watch is whether Rep. Jim Matheson (UT-02) will get a primary challenge. Voting starts around 3:45pm Eastern.

CA-Sen: Moose lady endorses sheep lady. Is chicken lady next?

KY-Sen: With the primary less than two weeks away, Jack Conway’s throwing in another $300K of his own money.

OH-Sen: Gov. Ted Strickland thinks that Jennifer Brunner might be getting ready to endorse Lee Fisher after all. If she wants to have a future in Democratic politics, she has to do this. If she fails to come through, this will be the kind of thing people remember forever.

CO-Gov: A challenging name for challenging times: Businessman Joe Gschwendtner is joining the GOP gubernatorial field, and he says he’ll seed his campaign with $100K of his own scrilla.

OH-Gov: Dems keep making John Kasich feel the pain over his refusal to make public all of his tax returns. Now, a couple of state legislators are proposing a bill which would require all political candidates to disclose their returns as a condition of running for office. Kasich, you’ll recall, briefly displayed a summary of his 2008 returns to reporters (who weren’t allowed to photocopy it); he made $1.1 million for doing mostly nothing, including helping to drive Lehman Brothers into the ground.

CA-19, CA-20: Two stones, one bird: It looks like two GOP congressional hopefuls in neighboring districts broke federal election laws by taking a flight on a private corporate jet with none other than Karl Rove. That could turn out to be one expensive ride for State Sen. Jeff Denham of Atwater (CA-19) and cherry farmer Andy Vidak (CA-20).

DE-AL: Wilson Research Strategies did a poll of the GOP primary for developer Glen Urquhart, who is facing off against possibly rich businesswoman Michele Rollins. (I’ve heard she may have only inherited an income interest from her late – and exceedingly wealthy – husband’s estate.) The poll showed Rollins leading 27-11 (with 60%) undecided.

FL-02: This is a little unexpected: Blue Dog Allen Boyd is running ads against his absurdly underfunded primary opponent, state Sen. Al Lawson. (Boyd has 29 times the cash that Lawson does.) Once again, though (say it with me), no word on the size of the buy.

FL-11: A fridge too far? NRCC honcho Pete Sessions is holding a fundraiser later this month in Tampa for one Mike Prendergast. Yeah, I ain’t never heard o’ him neither, but I guess he did raised about $100K in Q1, and incumbent Kathy Castor only has about $350K on hand. Still, this was a 66% Obama/58% Kerry district.

GA-09: In these dark-red districts, the most you can hope for is some hot wingnut-on-wingnut violence – and it looks like we’re finally seeing some. The Club for Growth is running ads targeting ex-state Sen. Lee Hawkins, alleging (what else?) that he’s not conservative enough and wouldn’t sign a pledge to repeal healthcare reform. Hawkins fired back with a press release, charging that the CFG supports illegal immigration and that their favored candidate, ex-state Rep. Tom Graves, is their stooge.

IL-08: Local Republican leaders met with the already-imploded Joe Walsh to see what the eff was going on with his campaign… and they’ve decided to stick with him. While running into the Melissa Bean buzzsaw might not be that enticing (even in a cycle like this), several other candidates ran against Walsh in the primary, so a replacement ought to be possible. (Read here if you need background on the Walshsplosion.)

MO-06: Local businessman Clint Hylton will run as a Democrat against GOP Rep. Sam Graves. Graves obliterated one of our most highly-touted recruits last cycle, former Kansas City mayor Kay Barnes.

NM-01: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) for Martin Heinrich (4/28-5/2, likely voters, no trendlines):

Martin Heinrich (D-inc): 55

Jon Barela (R): 38

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Heinrich leads among Hispanics 68-24, who make up 35% of this sample. These are very nice numbers. Heinrich has over $1 million cash-on-hand, while Barela has under $400K.

MA-09: SEIU political director Mac D’Alessandro submitted 5,000 signatures as part of his nominating papers, but still needs an additional 2,000 by June 1 to qualify for the ballot. He’s aiming to take on Rep. Stephen Lynch, who earned lifetime douchebag status by infamously switching from “yes” to “no” on the healthcare reform bill.

OH-18: 2008 loser Fred Dailey trails establishment fave Bob Gibbs by 164 votes after Tuesday’s GOP primary, but there are still ballots left to be counted. In fact, provisionals and absentees, as long as they were postmarked on time, will still be accepted up until ten days after the election. No one knows how many ballots are outstanding, though. If the final margin is less than one half of one percent, there will be an automatic recount. Still, the odds have to be against Dailey – though a prolonged fight is probably good for Rep. Zack Space.

PA-06: While NARAL doesn’t usually endorse in primaries, their former president, Kate Michelman, is backing Manan Trivedi over Doug Pike. Pike, in the past, has written columns that suggested he has wobbly views on reproductive choice. Other pieces of his have made very questionable remarks about women – click the link if you want the exact quotes. Pike says he “apologizes” for these columns, about the 99th time he’s had to apologize for something on this campaign.

PA-12: Public Opinion Strategies (R) Tim Burns (5/4-5, likely voters, 3/15 in parens):

Mark Critz (D): 41 (41)

Tim Burns (R): 43 (45)

Undecided: 14 (13)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Research 2000 for KCCI-TV (5/3-5, likely voters, 2/15-17 in parens):

IA-Sen:

Roxanne Conlin (D): 40 (35)

Chuck Grassley (R-inc): 49 (56)

Undecided: 11 (9)

(MoE: ±4%)

These are nice numbers for Roxanne Conlin, who is still unknown to 20% of likely vteros. However, R2K’s polling (including their first poll of this race for Daily Kos) has really bounced around a lot. In October of last year, it was Grassley +12, then Grassley +21 in February, and now Grassley +9. I’m not really sure there’s an explanation for this gyration. (And as far as I understand, R2K used the same methodology for both clients – and you can see that the question wording is the same, too.)

IA-Gov:

Chet Culver (D-inc): 41 (38)

Terry Branstad (R): 48 (54)

Undecided: 11 (8)

Chet Culver (D-inc): 44 (41)

Bob van der Plaats (R): 40 (38)

Undecided: 16 (21)

Chet Culver (D-inc): 46 (48)

Rod Roberts (R): 36 (26)

Undecided: 18 (26)

(MoE: ±4%)

Again, a lot of bouncing in the toplines: Branstad +5 to Branstad +16 to Brandstad +7. The latest survey is good news for Culver, sure, but that’s a bit like saying Dukakis did better than Mondale – the numbers still suck.

For the ultra-hardcore political junkies whose electoral cravings can never be satisfied, we’re offering up this open thread on today’s elections in the United Kingdom. Polls close at 10pm local time, which is 5pm Eastern (ie, right about now). While most constituencies start counting votes right away, some won’t begin until tomorrow morning, meaning who controls Parliament might not be known tonight if the election is close.

Some sites where you can follow the results (if you have others, please suggest them in comments):

Politics.co.uk | BBC | The Economist | Economist Liveblog

And for your viewing pleasure:

FL-Sen: Some more lulzy shit from Charlie Crist: Now he says he won’t engage in any more negative campaigning. He also re-iterated that he’s pro-life (jeez) and that he doesn’t like Arizona’s new immigration law. I think there might be six people in America who belong to his crazy-ass, Garanimals-style mix-n-match political party. Meanwhile, ex-North Miami Mayor Kevin Burns is abandoning the Democratic primary (where he never got even the slightest bit of traction) and running for the state senate seat being vacated by Dem Dan Gelber, who is running for AG.

NV-Gov: Ralph Waldo Emerson surely had Brian Sandoval in mind when he sagely observed that a foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds. When he ran for state AG in 2002, he told the editorial board of the Las Vegas Review-Journal that he viewed it as the AG’s job to defend any state law, no matter how constitutionally suspect. Since he was clearly out sick the day they taught the Socratic method in law school, Sandoval, when pressed, even said that he would enforce a law requiring Jews to wear yellow stars. Yeah. But now it’s Gov. Jim Gibbons’ turn to sound ridiculous, since he put out a press release that directly compared Sandoval to the Nazis. Sigh. I would have flunked Sandoval had I been his civpro professor, but this charge is a bit much, to say the least.

IL-14: The Tarrance Group (R) for Randy Hultgren (5/3-4, likely voters, no trendlines):

Bill Foster (D-inc): 44

Randy Hultgren (R): 45

(MoE: ±5.7%)

MO-08: GOP Rep. Jo Ann Emerson was reportedly short-listed to become chair of the Credit Union National Association (whose current chief will step down at the end of the year), but she’s denying that she’s interested. Dem Tommy Sowers, who has shown some surprising fundraising prowess in this deep red district, had been making some hay about this.

MS-01: Former FOX News talking head Angela McGlowan flip-flopped and now says she’ll support whoever the Republican nominee is against Travis Childers. Previously, she said she refused to back NRCC fave Alan Nunnelee if he won the GOP nod, citing some tax apostasy.

OH-18: Four local labor unions (SEIU, CWA, UFCW and UAW) held a rally to announce that they officially plan to withhold their support from Rep. Zack Space. Space, as you’ll recall, switched his vote from “yes” to “no” on the healthcare bill. SEIU is actually encouraging folks to “Skip a Space” and not vote for him altogether (though the other unions did not go that far).

CT-AG: It’s official (for now) – Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz can run for AG. You may recall a weird issue came up some months ago – namely, CT requires that its attorneys general have “actively practiced” law for ten years. A Superior Court judge ruled today that Bysiewicz’s service as SoS, which involved ruling on legal matters related to elections, met that requirement. (Had it not, she would have failed to qualify.) The state GOP may still appeal.

Campaign Finance: A little-noticed provision of the so-called DISCLOSE Act, which is aimed at blunting the impact of the Supreme Court’s Citizens United decision, would have a major impact on party committees like the DCCC and NRCC. As you know, every two years, these committees must set up walled-off departments which make independent expenditures on behalf of campaigns – but can never communicate with those same campaigns. The DISCLOSE Act would redefine the test for impermissible coordination, only barring the party committees from making IEs if they are “controlled by, or made at the direction of” the candidate. That will be a pretty easy problem to avoid, if the bill passes. Mr. Reid, Ms. Pelosi – tear down that wall!

Ward Research (PDF) for the Honolulu Advertiser & Hawaii News Now (4/23-28, likely voters, no tendlines)

Neil Abercrombie (D): 49

Duke Aiona (R): 35

Undecided: 16

Mufi Hannemann (D): 48

Duke Aiona (R): 35

Undecided: 17

(MoE: ±4.0%)

Neil Abercrombie (D): 36

Mufi Hannemann (D): 32

I’m Voting in the GOP Primary: 11

Undecided: 21

(MoE: ±4.0%)

This is an extremely unusual way to poll a primary. Hawaii has an open primary, but even so, likely voters in the general election are a different breed from likely primary voters. Abercrombie does better among Democrats while Hanneman is stronger among Republicans; if I had to guess, that bodes well for Abercrombie, because when push comes to shove, I think Republicans are probably less likely to bother showing up to vote in a Democratic primary than, well, Democrats are (even though there is no competitive GOP race).

Against Aiona, neither Dem holds on to members of his own party all that well – Abercrombie at 67-19 and Hannemann at 63-19, while Aiona retains Republicans in the mid-to-high 70s. The problem, though, is that there are a hell of a lot more Democrats than Republicans in Hawaii, which makes Aiona’s job especially hard, even though he wins independents 43-32 against both potential opponents. Democrats are also likely to have more money. Hawaii only requires fundraising reports every six months, so the last set of numbers are out of date. I’m willing to guess that Abercrombie’s stepped it up quite a bit since his resignation from the House, and Mufi is still probably cruising, too.

HI-Sen: For anyone still concerned that Gov. Linda Lingle (R) might challenge Sen. Dan Inouye this year (like me!), this poll shows her with just a 40-53 job approval – the lowest in her two terms as governor. Apparently she’s taken a major hit because of teacher furloughs. Still, I think Lingle could be a strong challenger to Dan Akaka in 2012.

FL-22: You stray, you pay. Marco Rubio strayed from the GOP reservation on Arizona’s new immigration law, and now ultra-rightist Allen West is attacking him for it. It will probably endear West even more to his base, but I note that the 22nd CD is 15% Hispanic (though undoubtedly some portion is Cuban).

PA-12 (PDF): Global Strategy Group (D) for Mark Critz (4/27-29, likely voters, mid-April in parens):

Mark Critz: 45 (41)

Tim Burns: 37 (38)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

RI-01: Former Providence city councilman David Segal is considering a run, and the Progressive Change Campaign Committee wants to back him. He would join former state Democratic Party Chairman William Lynch and current Providence Mayor David Cicilline in the race. Businessman Anthony Gemma says he is also “strongly considering” a bid.

VA-05: Virgil Goode, who briefly served in Congress as an independent (between his switch from the Democratic to the Republican Party) has abandoned the major parties once again. He says he’s joining the Constitution Party – though no word on whether he plans to run on that line for his old seat. However, Jeff Clark says he [Clark] has gathered enough signatures to qualify for the ballot as an independent – but will only run if state Sen. Robert Hurt is the GOP nominee. It seems like local conservatives hate Hurt as much as we hate Lieberman.

UT-02: Retired school teacher Claudia Wright is planning to challenge Rep. Jim Matheson at the 2nd CD Democratic convention this Saturday, and says she thinks she can get the 40% she needs to make it on to the primary ballot. Wright principally cites Matheson’s healthcare vote as the reason for her run. While we just saw last night that unhappy liberals in North Carolina were willing to vote for no-names against two other Dems who voted nay on HCR (Heath Shuler and Larry Kissell), the stakes are a lot higher in UT-02, where it’s hard to imagine any Dem other than Matheson holding this seat.

Polls have now closed in all three states with primaries tonight: Indiana, North Carolina, and Ohio.

RESULTS

• IN: Associated Press | IN SoS | Politico
• NC: Associated Press | NC BoE | Politico
• OH: Associated Press | OH SoS | Politico

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9:51PM: Well, this thread is getting a bit obese. Let’s move this discussion over here.

9:45PM: Get ready for a runoff between Elaine Marshall (37%) and DSCC fave Cal Cunningham (27%) in North Carolina.

9:43PM: With half the vote in, Krikorian leads Yalamanchili by 40-34.

9:38PM: So, er, looks like we jumped to conclusions a bit in IN-09 – Hankins is now fewer than 300 votes behind Young. But it still looks like Young is favored.

9:37PM: Risk loses Kamchatka. The AP calls IN-08 for Larry Bucshon. (Hey teabaggers — vote for Trent out of spite!)

9:35PM: The AP calls OH-02 for Jean Schmidt. She scored 62% of the vote this time.

9:33PM: Unreal. Looks like Dan Burton is gonna live again — he’s at 29.7% of the vote, just over 2000 votes head of Luke Messer with 4 precincts outstanding. What a pathetic showing for Burton!

9:25PM: Despite Travis Hankins’ exciting late surge, Todd Young has pulled away with an almost 2K vote lead. Less than 10% of the vote is outstanding, which means that fewer than 5K more ballots are still out there. Almost impossible to make up that gap. (And incidentally, Mike Sodrel pulled back into second place.)

9:22PM: Elaine Marshall’s share of the vote keeps slipping downward. She’s now just above 37%.

9:09PM: With 477 of 587 precincts in, Todd Young leads Travis Hankins by 225 votes in IN-09.

9:03PM: With 9.5% of the vote in, Lee Fisher leads Jennifer Brunner by 56-44.

9:00PM: I note that Dan Coats won his nomination with about the same percentage as Alexi Giannoulias won his.

8:53PM: Whoa, check out IN-09 — Young leads teabagger Travis Hankins by 34-33, with 30% for Sodrel. Still about a fifth of the vote left to count there.

8:51PM: Risk is now back up by 31-29 in IN-08, but there are still 71 Bucshon-friendly precincts outstanding in Evansville left to count.

8:49PM: Whoa mama joe! In Ohio, it’s still 52-48 Fisher with 7% of the vote in.

8:47PM: Worth noting: Neither Kissell nor Shuler’s primary opponent filed an FEC report, and Shuler’s guy doesn’t even have a contribution link on his website.

8:46PM: The problem for Dan Burton? He has no strongholds left, and his Hamilton County performance is quite weak. This should be very close.

8:45PM: Buschon now up by 31-30 based on his strength in Evansville. 2/3rds of the vote now in.

8:43PM: Almost 2/3rds of the votes are now counted in IN-05, and Burton leads Messer by 31-28. The Hamilton County votes, which are starting to come in now, are split 25-25-25 for Burton, Messer, and McGoff.

8:41PM: The AP calls the Indiana Senate primary for Dan Coats.

8:41PM: Note that both Shuler and Kissell voted against healthcare — are we seeing some fallout there?

8:38PM: NC-11: And Heath Shuler is up just 57-43 against Aixa Wilson.

8:37PM: NC-08: Dem Rep. Larry Kissell up just 60-40 against challenger from the left with 15% in.

8:36PM: A bit over half of the vote is in, and Dan Burton leads Luke Messer by 32-30.

8:29PM: Risk only up 12 votes in IN-08, 30-30, she’ll continue to lose ground as more of Vanderburgh County comes in.

8:26PM: Harold Johnson leads D’Annuzio by 35-34 in NC-08. Looks like a runoff is a live possibility here.

8:25PM: Now that a bit over a quarter of the vote is in, Elaine Marshall leads Cal Cunningham by 38-28. Ken Lewis is at 15.

8:22PM: With a bit over half the vote counted in IN-09, Young leads Sodrel by 37-31, while teabagger Travis Hankins is close behind with 29%.

8:21PM: Teabagger Kristi Risk now only leads Buschon by 300 votes in IN-08, now that Evansville (Buschon’s home base) is starting to report.

8:19PM: In NC-08, Harold Johnson leads businessman Tim D’Annuzio by 37-34. Looks like that’s just the early vote, though.

8:18PM: NC-10: McHenry comfortably ahead with a small number of votes in, 60-25.

8:16PM: Check out OH-16, where Matt Miller is leading NRCC fave Jim Renacci by 72-23 thanks to some early votes in in Ashland, his home county.

8:13PM: The bean counters at SSP labs think that a runoff is likely in North Carolina. There’s a huge chunk of eastern NC that’s largely African-American where Ken Lewis is going to do better than he’s been doing right now, as well as Durham/Mecklenburg counties outstanding.

8:11PM: With under half of the vote in, teabagger Kristi Risk leads DC-backed surgeon Larry Buschon by 31-26. Wow!

8:10PM: The AP has called IN-02 for Wacky Jackie Walorski.

8:09PM: IN-09: Todd Young leads Mike Sodrel 38-33, with Travis Hankins back at 26.

8:08PM: In North Carolina, the Senate race is now 39M-27C-16L, but as Tom Jensen points out, the minor candidates may force this into a runoff.

8:04PM: With just 11 precincts in (but also a big chunk of votes in from Franklin County), Fisher leads Brunner by 52-48 in Ohio.

8:00PM: The AP has declared GOP Rep. Mark Souder the winner of his primary. I’m kind of surprised!

7:57PM: Dan Burton is in a very tight race. With 40% in, he leads Messer by 33-31.

7:56PM: IN-04: Rokita crushing 45-18 with about a third of the vote in.

7:56PM: IN-03: Souder very likely to hold on – 49-34 with 72% in.

7:55PM: IN-02: Wacky Jackie now up 57-31 with 43% in.

7:48PM: With the early vote in North Carolina in, Elaine Marshall leads Cal Cunningham by 39.5% to 26%.

7:42PM: Kristi Risk now ahead by just 15 votes in IN-08 (216 of 635 precincts reporting).

7:40PM: With 28% of precincts in statewide, Dan Coats leads Marlin Stutzman by 42%-30%.