Author: DavidNYC

An all-House digest today – and it’s an hour earlier than usual! Remember, today is primary day in IN, NC & OH, so be sure to check out SSP’s handy election guide.

AL-07: Attorney Terri Sewell, who is probably the candidate ideologically closest to outgoing Rep. Artur Davis, is going up with a TV ad buy in Montgomery and Birmingham which will stay up through the primary (which is a month from now). No word on the size of the buy, though.

CT-02: Republicans are courting former television news anchor Janet Peckinpaugh to run against Rep. Joe Courtney, who has luckily skated by without much in the way of opposition this cycle. Peckinpaugh says she’s considering it. She was most recently seen shilling for a now-defunct mortgage company in deceptive, TV news-like ads, clearly trading on her reputation as a newsreader. The company, Lend America, shut down in December after it was placed under federal investigation.

FL-12: After screwing up the establishment’s efforts to clear the GOP primary field for ex-state Rep. Dennis Ross by jumping into the race, Polk County Comm’r Randy Wilkinson is bidding adieu to the Republican Party. Instead, he’s going to run as the Tea Party candidate (there’s an actual Tea Party in Florida, just like the Whigs). Wilkinson has raised very little money – his FEC reports are a mess, and he seems to like filing them in hand-written form, so he doesn’t even appear in their electronic database.

FL-21: What a bummer – zero Dems filed in the open 21st CD, which means that Mario Diaz-Balart will automatically inherit his brother Lincoln’s seat. I can’t really blame folks too much, though, as Florida has especially onerous ballot access requirements. If you don’t petition on, you have to pay a filing fee, which is an insane $10,000+.

HI-01: The DCCC threw down another $70K for negative ads against Charles Djou.

ID-01, OH-15: We mentioned the other day that GOPer Steve Stivers, busy with a rematch against Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy in OH-15, said he favors repealing the 17th amendment – the one which gives citizens the right to vote for their senators (rather than having them be appointed by state legislatures). Well, after taking a lot of much-deserved heat, he’s backed off that fantasy. But his would-be colleague, Vaughn Ward, is taking up the mantle. Ward, running against Rep. Walt Minnick in ID-01, offered a rationale worthy of Miss Teen South Carolina, saying “When you look at how come state’s rights have been so abrogated, it’s because of things like the 17th Amendment that has taken away those rights from our states.” Yuh huh. Exactly.

IL-08: Just click the link and read about the greatest political implosion of the entire cycle. (Thankfully, it’s the bad guys.) More here, here, and here.

KS-03: Along with Joe Garcia (see yesterday’s morning digest), the DCCC added another candidate to their Red to Blue list, Stephene Moore, who is the wife of retiring Rep. Dennis Moore.

MA-10: State Rep. Jeff Perry, running for Bill Delahunt’s open seat, scored an endorsement from ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney. Perry, who was also previously endorsed by Sen. Scott Brown, has a primary against ex-state Treasurer Joe Malone. Malone has some baggage-related cooties, which probably explains Perry’s run of good fortune.

MD-01 (PDF): Public Opinion Strategies (R) for Americans for Prosperity (R) (4/25-26, likely voters, no trendlines):

Frank Kratovil (D-inc): 36

Andy Harris (R): 39

Richard Davis (L): 6

Other: 1

Undecided: 18

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Two things about this poll: First off, in contravention of appropriate practice, POS asked all kinds of axe-grindy issue questions (“Gov. O’Malley raised taxes by $1.3 billion”) before getting to the horserace question. This does damage to POS’s reputation as a supposedly respectable pollster. Secondly, the weird thing is that Harris switched pollsters – and his last survey, from the Tarrance Group back in November, had him up by a whopping 52-39. While it’s not a proper trendline, you gotta wonder – is Harris slipping? Or is he getting snowed by his various pollsters? (Update: D’oh! Our mistake — this poll was not done for Harris, but actually the right-wing consortium of douches known as the Americans for Prosperity.)

MI-01: Dem state Rep. Joel Sheltrown, who got into the race to replace Bart Stupak just a few weeks ago, is bowing out.

MI-09: Self-funder Gene Goodman is dropping out of the race to take on Rep. Gary Peters, despite having loaned his campaign $450K. That leaves ex-state Rep. Andrew “Rocky” Raczkowski and former Oakland County GOP Chair Paul Welday in the running, both of whom have had unimpressive fundraising – and in fact, Rocky is yet another victim (albeit a more minor one) of Base Connect.

Meanwhile, we missed a Welday internal poll from a couple of weeks ago (taken by Mitchell Research & Communications), which had Peters leading by just 44-43. The poll sampled just 300 LVs, though, and according to the Hotline, was in the field at two discontiguous times. Peters’ camp attacked the poll’s sample composition, but Steve Mitchell says he used the same methodology as he did in September of 2008, when (according to the article), ” he declared Peters was going to defeat Joe Knollenberg.” Is this hindsight proving to be 20/20? Mitchell’s poll from back then had the race tied.

NY-13: Global Strategy Group (D) for Mike McMahon (4/7-11, likely voters, no trendlines):

Mike McMahon (D-inc): 56

Mike Allegretti (R): 24

Undecided: 20

Mike McMahon (D-inc): 56

Mike Grimm (R): 23

Undecided: 21

(MoE: ±4.9%)

OH-09: Dem Rep. Marcy Kaptur, who is not really on anyone’s radar in terms of having a competitive race, is nonetheless facing a moneybags challenger. Former Food Town CEO Rich Iott just dumped $319,000 into his campaign. Kaptur has over a million on hand, and the 9th CD voted 62% for Obama and 58% for Kerry.

PA-12: Anzalone-Liszt (D) for the DCCC (4/27-29, likely voters, no trendlines):

Mark Critz (D): 43

Tim Burns (R): 41

(MoE: ±4.9%)

TN-08: A couple of disgusting low-lifes running for TN-08, Ron Kirkland and Randy Smith, had this delightful exchange at a candidate forum:

Kirkland, of Jackson, referred to his Army training during the Vietnam War and said: “I can tell you if there were any homosexuals in that group, they were taken care of in ways I can’t describe to you.”

Smith, a chef from Mercer who served in the Navy during the Gulf War, said: “I definitely wouldn’t want to share a shower with a homosexual. We took care of that kind of stuff, just like (Kirkland) said.”

These sick bastards have serious issues.

SD-AL: Heh – GOP state Rep. Kristi Noem has a biographical spot up on the air, talking about her return to her family farm after her father’s death. The only problem is that she shot the ad in Texas – which became apparent given that the backdrop (a grove of leafy green trees) is something you can’t really find in North South Dakota this time of year. Reminds me of when Bob Schaffer ran an ad pretending that Alaska’s Mount McKinley was actually Colorado’s famous Pikes Peak while running for CO-Sen in 2008.

The primary season gets underway in earnest this week, with contests in Indiana, North Carolina, and Ohio tomorrow. Additionally, Utah’s state GOP convention is on Saturday. Also note that North Carolina has a top-two run-off (scheduled for June 22nd) for any races where the leading candidate fails to clear 40% in the first round. (For a complete primary & run-off calendar, click here.)  Below is a roundup of some of the key races to watch for:

Indiana:

• IN-Sen (R): This may well be the most interesting primary on Tuesday. It’s a true ground zero face-off between the establishment and the teabaggers. In one corner is Dan Coats, who couldn’t get more bougie if he tried. Not only is he a former Senator, he’s spent the last decade as a Washington lobbyist for a host of unsavory clients. In the other corner… well, there are two corners. One is occupied by certified nutball ex-Rep. John Hostettler, who is as allergic to raising money as he is to sanity. The latter quality has endeared him to the base, but the former is a big obstacle to, well, winning. Which leaves state Sen. Marlin Stutzman, who has been eating a good portion of Hostettler’s lunch – among other things, he’s secured the endorsement of Jim DeMint, the patron saint of hopeless right-wing primary candidates. There’s been precious little polling of the race, but what we’ve seen indeed suggests that Stutzman and Hostettler are splitting the crazies, which could allow Coats to sneak through with a very underwhelming vote total. This is one of those races where it’s just hard for a Democrat to say who we’d be better off with as our opponent – they’re all great! (David)
• IN-02 (R): Most people have assumed that state Rep. Jackie Walorski – “Wacky Jackie” to those who know her best – will be the GOP’s nominee in the 2nd, as she was the NRCC’s prize pick and she’s well-known (as a former local TV news reporter and a member of GOP leadership in the state House). She still faces a challenge from Jack Jordan, the president of the Bremen school board. Despite a long stint as an executive at local pharma company Eli Lilly, Jordan seems to be working the angry average-guy angle, and if there’s a year to be doing that, it’s this year. (Crisitunity)
• IN-03 (R): Republican incumbent Mark Souder, a notorious under-performer in this deeply Republican district, may finally be running out of rope. A recent SUSA poll only gave Souder a 35-29 edge over auto dealer Bob Thomas, with attorney and former Dan Coats staffer Phil Troyer gobbling up nearly 20%. One way or the other, though, Souder’s time in Congress is rapidly coming to a close — he recently told Brian Howey that he’s strongly inclined to retire in 2012 if he survives this dogfight. The winner of this pie fight gets to face ’06 Democratic nominee Tom Hayhurst, a physician and former Fort Wayne city councilor. (James)
• IN-04 (R): With incumbent Republican Steve Buyer making this term his last in this deeply Republican suburban donut district, the GOP primary is where it’s at. Secretary of State Todd Rokita may think he has control of the two turntables and the microphone in this race, but state Sen. Brandt Hershman has been raising a respectable sum of cash – and has Buyer’s endorsement. State Sen. Mike Young is also in the mix, but his fundraising is barely existent. (J)
• IN-05 (R): If there was ever a year to give GOP Rep. Dan Burton’s ass the boot, it’s this one. After winning a surprisingly close primary contest against former Marion County Coroner John McGoff, four viable Republicans have stepped up to challenge Burton this year – including McGoff again. Joining them are state Rep. Mike Murphy, ex-state Rep. Luke Messer, and former Dan Quayle/Dan Coats staffer Brose McVey. With a field chopped up in so many ways, Burton just may survive. (J)
• IN-08 (R): Republicans were caught off guard in this district after Democrats managed to beam up incumbent Rep. Brad Ellsworth to the Senate race, and they lack a well-known name to take advantage of this open seat. However, NRCC-types like surgeon Larry Buschon, who has managed to bank a decent amount of coin for his bid. However, he’ll have to fight through a field crowded with seven other candidates, including teabagger fave Kristi Risk. The theory swirling around the tubes is that, since this district is ground zero for John Hostettler nut-wing Republicans, Hoss’s Senate campaign may excite enough ‘baggers to threaten Buschon. It’d be surprisng if this one plays out that way, though. (J)
• IN-09 (R): Douchebag ex-Rep. Mike Sodrel is making his fifth crack at this seat, but he’s facing somewhat stiff competition in the primary from attorney Todd Young, who seems to be the favorite of an establishment tired of the retread Sodrel. Also waiting in the wings is teabagger Travis Hankins, who has raised enough scrilla to keep himself in the game. (J)

North Carolina:

• NC-Sen (D): North Carolina Democrats will head to the polls to give either Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, ex-state Sen. Cal Cunningham, and attorney Ken Lewis the right to take on anonymous frosh GOP Sen. Richard Burr in November. One of these candidates will need to break the 40% barrier in order to avoid a June runoff. While no one has polled close to that marker yet, local boy Tom Jensen is betting that one of Cunningham (the man with the money) or Marshall (the name you know) will cross that barrier. (J)
• NC-08 (R): Republicans have been licking their chops over the chance to dethrone Larry Kissell after just one term in the House, but their field of candidates is decidedly second-tier. Businessman Tim d’Annunzio has spent nearly $1 million, making him something of a favorite – but he’s also racked up a long list of unflattering incidents on the campaign trail that suggest his campaign, though well-funded, is completely unhinged. D’Annuzio will face ex-sportscaster Harold Johnson, retired Army Col. Lou Huddleston, and engineer Hal Jordan in the primary. It wouldn’t be a shock to see this one go to a runoff. (J)
• NC-11 (R): This one may not rank very highly on the GOP’s target list, but Republicans have a number of warm bodies in the race against sophomore Dem Rep. Heath Shuler, in case things get interesting. Businessman Jeff Miller and ophthalmologist Dan Eichenbaum have both spent over $100K on their campaigns as of mid-April, while Hendersonville Mayor Greg Newman is running on spare change and a pocketful of dreams. (J)

Ohio:

• OH-Sen (D): Two Democrats are fighting for the right to take on Republican Rob Portman, the former congressman and Bush budget director: Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner. Fisher, who’s enjoyed a sizable fundraising edge as well as support from the DSCC, has seen his lead expand a good deal in recent public polling. Turnout will probably be low, which always increases unpredictability, so it may not be quite a done deal – but Fisher is looking pretty good. (D)
• OH-02 (D): The choice for Dems is between Surya Yalamanchili, a former star of the reality show “Apprentice,” and novelty playing-cards mogul David Krikorian, who took 18% as an independent in 2008. “Chili,” as he is known, has not raised very much but appears to have consolidated the support of much of the local establishment (including endorsements from the past two Dem nominees in the district, Vic Wulsin and Paul Hackett). Meanwhile, Krikorian (a self-described “Reagan conservative”) seems to have ticked a few people off and apparently mocked his opponent’s name at a recent campaign event. Not pretty. (D)
• OH-02 (R): Jean Schmidt, who hasn’t been in Congress all that long, has faced serious primary challenges in both of her re-election campaigns, escaping by just 5% in 2006 and a somewhat more respectable 18% in 2008. Part of the reason Schmidt survived both times is because of the split field facing her. The same is true this year. Warren County commissioner Mike Kilburn is probably Schmidt’s most legitimate challenger, but Some Dudes Debbi Alsfelder and Tim Martz are also in the race. Kilburn has only raised $30K, though, while Schmidt has spent more than $400 grand. Still, with anti-incumbent sentiment running as high as it has in ages, and with Schmidt being Schmidt, I suppose you never know. (D)
• OH-16 (R): Businessman and former smalltown mayor Jim Renacci is the NRCC’s favorite here, and he’s raised over half a million to date (plus he’s given himself a $120K loan). But he’s facing a challenge from his right in the form of Matt Miller, a former Ashland County Commissioner. Miller is no run-of-the-mill teabagger. In 2006, he pulled in 42% of the vote against incumbent Rep. Ralph Regula (who was running what would be his last race). And in 2008, with the seat open, Miller came within 5 points of snatching the nomination from establishment-preferred state Sen. Kirk Schuring. Against this history, Renacci has already spent $500K to Miller’s tiny $24K. An upset is a definite possibility here. The winner takes on freshman Rep. John Boccierri. (D)
• OH-18 (R): In a somewhat similar scenario, state Sen. Bob Gibbs is the GOP bigs’ favorite to challenge sophomore Rep. Zack Space. Classically, this means that Gibbs is hated by the teabag set, and he faces some real opposition, especially given his un-awesome fundraising. Fred Dailey, the 2008 nominee who got splattered by Space 60-40, is running, and he’s been howling loudly about the alleged “favoritism” the establishment has shown toward Gibbs. The other notable candidate is Jeanette Moll, who lost to Dailey in the primary last cycle and has run radio ads attacking Gibbs as a tax-increasing libruhl. Both this race and the contest in the 16th CD ought to provide an interesting read on how big the split really is between the grassroots and the powers-that-be in the Republican Party. (D)

Utah:

• UT-Sen (R): Saturday is D-Day for Bob Bennett, who seems poised to become the first incumbent member of the Senate to fall this year. Oddly, though, the voters may not even get to take the chance to take their anger out on him, because he may not be able to make it out of the state Republican convention onto the primary ballot. In fact, Bennett would probably prefer that the broader population of primary voters, rather than the right-wing activists who dominate the convention, decide his fate. That’s because a variety of polls of convention delegates suggest that Bennett will be hard pressed to even make it to the final round of balloting (where Mike Lee and Tim Bridgewater seem to poll better). And even if Bennett somehow does make it to the final round against Lee, Lee is likely to consolidate all the anti-Bennett votes and clear the 60% mark needed to nail down the GOP nomination without a primary. Bennett is by no means a moderate, but he’s guilty of occasionally trying to legislate in conjunction with Democrats, which in this climate means he’s likely to get his walking papers. (C)

AR-Sen: Former President and governor of Arkansas Bill Clinton cut two radio ads on behalf of Blanche Lincoln. One of them highlights Lincoln’s alleged support for Clinton’s economic agenda back in the 1990s – not an issue likely to resonate, especially in today’s economic climate.

FL-Sen: A Public Opinion Strategies poll for Charlie Crist, taken before he left the GOP primary, had him at 36, Marco Rubio at 28, and Kendrick Meek at 23. A McLaughlin & Associates poll (taken for “the Associated Industries of Florida,” also before the switcheroo) had Crist up as well, 33C-29R-15M. Meanwhile, The Buzz takes a look at which boldfaced names showed up to Crist’s first fundraiser following his political party reassignment surgery.

On the Dem side, zillionaire mortgage-shorting mogul Jeff Greene says he’ll “spend whatever it takes” to win his primary against Rep. Kendrick Meek. That must be music to Joe Trippi’s ears. Greene is unelectable but thanks to his monstrous bankroll, he can do a lot of harm to Democratic chances in this race. Trippi is aiding and abetting this bullshit, and will profit handsomely.

NY-Sen-B: Chris Dodd, in the midst of working on financial regulation reform, says he won’t attend a Wall Street-sponsored fundraiser on behalf of Kirsten Gillibrand in NYC tonight.

UT-Sen: A poignant poll for Bob Bennett: While Republican delegates to the state convention despise him (he’s in third place with just 16%), rank-and-file Republican voters like him much more (first place, 39%). In other states, the GOP would have cause for concern, since a convention process like this is clearly aimed at producing the most conservative candidate imaginable. But in Utah, it probably won’t matter. Though if Bennett gets toppled, I wonder if other nervous establishment officials might consider eliminating the convention and replacing it with an ordinary primary.

MI-Gov: Thank god: Geoffrey Feiger, Jack Kevorkian’s attorney and the Dems’ disastrous 1998 gubernatorial nominee, says he won’t run again. Now all we have to worry about is Andy Dillon.

HI-Gov, HI-01: Hawaii’s legislature unexpectedly passed a civil unions bill on the last day of the session, which now goes to Gov. Linda Lingle (she has until July 6th to decide whether to sign the bill into law or veto it). Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona (R), running to succeed Lingle, wants her to veto it. Ex-Rep. Neil Abercrombie is strongly in favor of the bill (and gay marriage), while his Democratic primary opponent, Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann, opposes gay marriage but hasn’t expressed an opinion on the current bill.

This may also have repercussions in the HI-01 race, where state Sen. President Colleen Hanabusa may have pushed the bill through in an attempt to repair relations with the LGBT community after the same bill got scuttled in January. Hanabusa says she doesn’t support gay marriage, though, while Democratic rival Ed Case does. Republican Charles Djou opposes the measure.

FL-05: Unsurprisingly, local Republicans are grumbling about Rep. Ginny Brown-Waite’s filing-deadline handoff to Sherriff Ted Richard Nugent, including state Sen. Mike Fasano, who apparently has had his eye on this seat for some time. You have to wonder if this is the kind of thing which will taint Nugent and make him vulnerable to a primary challenge next cycle. Also among the complainers, interestingly, is state Sen. Paula Dockery, whose current district overlaps with the 5th CD. Dockery’s gotten nowhere in her FL-Gov primary against AG Bill McCollum, so you have to wonder if she isn’t gnashing her teeth about a lost opportunity here.

FL-25: Joe Garcia’s candidacy is a rare bright spot for Dems in this otherwise putrid cycle. Now the DCCC, which lobbied heavily for him to get into the race, has given Garcia their official stamp of approval, adding him to their Red to Blue list once again.

GA-09: Dems never had a chance in the special election in this ruby red district, but you gotta figure it’s almost always better to actually have a Democrat on the ballot rather than not. We had a candidate here, pastor Mike Freeman, but he dropped out a couple of weeks ago. Now, though, he says he’s back in the race, but his website is offline.

IN-08: Democratic state Rep. Trent Van Haaften, running to fill Brad Ellsworth’s open seat, has been talking to local teabaggers to see if they might support him. Yeah, I’m in as much disbelief as you are. But, as is always the case, there’s a lot of hostility between the tea partiers and the establishment, and at least one ‘bagger says they want to “teach the machine a lesson.”

PA-12: Freedom’s Defense Fund, an arm of the incredibly dodgy Base Connect (formerly BMW Direct) has made a $20K “independent” expenditure on behalf of Bill Russell, who is challenging Tim Burns in the GOP primary. (Recall that there’s both a special election and a primary on the same day.) FDF is supposedly distinct from Base Connect, but given that they share the same office (according to TPM), the idea that their expenditures are actually “independent” is a real stretch.

More importantly, the NRCC just threw down another quarter million bucks on behalf of Burns, bringing their total spending on this race to over $725K. The DCCC has yet to respond to this latest blast.

DCCC: The DCCC is about to begin its biennial rite of splitting off its independent expenditure arm. Thanks to stupid federal laws against “co-ordination,” the DCCC staffers who make spending decisions about IEs can’t be in contact with the rest of the D-Trip, because those folks are in contact with individual campaigns. This is senseless. Anyhow, political director Robby Mook will head up the IE arm, and John Lapp (who once ran this shop himself) will serve as a “senior advisor.” Incumbent retention director Jennifer Pihlaja will replace Mook as PD of DCCC proper (and keep her current title).

Jennifer Brunner says that she won’t help Lee Fisher if she loses:

It’s customary in a primary election for the losing candidate to campaign for their party’s nominee in the fall.

But if she loses Tuesday’s Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner won’t be telling Democrats to vote for the party nominee in November.

Asked by a Dayton Daily News reporter last week how much she would work for Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher if he wins and she loses, Brunner held up her hand and formed a zero.

No word yet if Fisher feels the same way.

(Hat-tip: AC1)

Now things are getting interesting:

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (I) would not say Sunday which party he’d caucus with if elected to the Senate.

Crist, who left the Republican Party this week to pursue an independent bid for the state’s open Senate seat, said he would be open to voting for a Democrat as majority leader.

“I’ll caucus with the people of Florida,” Crist said during an appearance on NBC’s “Meet the Press.” …

“I might not vote for either one,” Crist said of which party’s member he might support as majority leader. “I’m going to vote for who I think is going to be best for the people of Florida. If is happens to be a Democrat, so be it. If it happens to be a Republican, so be it.”

I think, though, that wobbling in the middle might actually be the worst approach Crist can take. By refusing to pick a side, he pisses off both Dems and Republicans – and frankly, the “middle-of-the-road” true moderates that David Broder fantasizes about every night don’t really exist in any sizable numbers. Maybe Crist can thread the needle, but few have done so before.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (4/26-28, likely voters, no trendlines):

Mark Critz (D): 40

Tim Burns (R): 46

Undecided: 14

^{(MoE: ±4%)}

Things are looking tough for Democrats in the race to fill the late Jack Murtha’s House seat, with Research 2000 giving Republican Tim Burns his biggest lead yet. An earlier PPP poll showed him up three points, while interestingly, Burns’s own internal had him back one. Critz’s standing seems to be no fault of his own. He has similar favorables to Burns (44-33 vs. 46-40). The problem is simply that this is a bad district and a bad environment – a toxic combination.

Pennsylvania’s 12th congressional district is a socially and culturally conservative place, the kind of area which has steadily been moving away from Democrats for quite some time. While much has been made of the fact that PA-12 was the only CD in the nation to flip from John Kerry to John McCain in 2008, that’s a pretty arbitrary metric. The real story is that it was one of just 35 CDs (out of 435) where Barack Obama got a smaller share of the vote than Kerry did. So while the nation as a whole was voting a whole lot more Democratic, PA-12 took a step in the other direction.

And it shows in two other key poll numbers. Obama’s approval in the district is just 38-55. Just as troubling, only 34% of voters say they are more likely to vote for a candidate who supports healthcare reform, while 48% are more likely to pull the lever for someone who advocates repeal. This helps explain why Critz has said he would have voted against HCR, but with this kind of headwind, that may not make much of a difference.

Both parties are seriously contesting this race – the DCCC has spent $472K so far, while the much less flush NRCC has matched them with $482K. Dems have also sent Joe Biden into the district to campaign for Critz. The election is a little over two weeks away (May 18), and undoubtedly it will be fought hard until the very end. But if Democrats’ streak winning special elections comes to an end, it may truly be a case of wrong place, wrong time.

In an article on Michael J. Fox’s support for Rep. Carolyn Maloney (a founder of the Congressional Parkinson’s Caucus), Daily News writer Celese Katz accurately described challenger Reshma Saujani’s fundraising like so:

Maloney already has the backing of President Obama and much of the Democratic establishment in her bid to keep representing the 14th CD, while Saujani is relying on Wall Street cash – and her status as a political newcomer – to woo voters.

Katz then posted an update:

Update: Team Saujani begs to differ on the Wall Street issue: “Reshma is not relying on Wall Street cash – she’s relying on the more than 1,200 donors from all walks of life who have contributed to her grassroots campaign. Unlike the incumbent, Reshma has not accepted – and will not accept – any PAC donations or corporate special interest contributions to fund her campaign,” said spokesman James Allen.

This whine, however, is utterly misleading. I combed through Saujani’s April FEC report and marked every donation that came from someone who works in finance. Out of the $401K Saujani raised in Q1, $148K came from hedge fund analysts, investment bankers, and, oh, the occasional chairman of your major Wall Street institution, like Morgan Stanley’s John Mack. (I also included JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon’s wife, Judy.) You can double-check my work here. Note that I played it conservatively, so if I couldn’t locate a company on Google, I didn’t mark that person. And for all I know, some of the “self-employed” people are retired asset managers sitting at home trading their multi-million dollar personal accounts.

Anyhow, I guess you could say that Saujani would still have raised $250K without Wall Street cash. And I suppose it’s a campaign’s job to quibble with words like “relying on.” But the fact is that over a third of Saujani’s last fundraising haul came from people who work in finance. Not that there’s anything wrong with that! If anything, I’d think Saujani – whose campaign seems centered around the notion that Dems are too mean to Wall Street – should embrace her donors.

AZ-Sen: The Behavior Research Center has a poll out on the AZ-Sen Republican primary, but it was apparently taken over the course of two weeks, which is deeply odd. (This seems to be par for the course for the BRC.) Also, the sample size is just 315. Anyhow, John McCain beats J.D. Hayworth by 54-26, a bigger margin than pretty much any other poll I can recall.

FL-Sen: Richy rich-guy Jeff Greene has the perfect profile for these troubled times, wouldn’t you agree? He made half a billion (with a b) betting on the housing collapse and wants to run in the Dem primary against Kendrick Meek. (He’ll have to make up his mind by Friday.) Also, he’s being advised by none other than Doug Schoen and Joe Trippi. Joe Trippi is a Jedi? More like Jar-Jar.

PA-15: Muhlenberg College for the Allentown Morning Call (4/19-27, likely voters incl. leaners, no trendlines):

Charlie Dent (R-inc): 45

John Callahan (D): 33

Other/undecided: 22

(MoE: ±6%)

Another long survey period and small sample size, but independent polls of House races are rare things. Obama has 55% favorables. Dent is at 53-29, Callahan at 43-13.

Blogosophere: As part of their revamped politics section, the Washington Post says it’s creating a fifty-state blogger network. But get this: They are asking bloggers to provide content to the Post for free. What a crock. Incidentally, the Hartford Courant tried something like this a few years back (in the midst of staff layoffs), but has since pulled the plug.

Census: Five states on the cusp of either losing a seat (CA, NY, TX) or gaining one (AZ, FL) are at risk of losing out because of poor Census response rates. A big part of the problem is the low participation among Latinos. I didn’t know this, but apparently, Clinton halted immigration raids during the 2000 Census, something Obama refused to do. That seems really unwise to me.

DNC: Of the $50 million in plans to spend on the midterms, the DNC says that $20 million will be direct investments in individual races, presumably in the form of independent expenditures.

AR-Sen: The odious U.S. Chamber of Commerce is running ads on behalf of Blanche Lincoln, though they are refusing to say how much they are spending on their buy. As Salon says, with friends like these….

FL-Sen: Reid Wilson does some counting and finds that Arlen Specter has given back a rather amazing $1 million this election cycle, following his party switch. (Part of this was fueled by an aggressive campaign by the Club for Growth, which won FEC permission to contact Specter’s donors and push them to ask for refunds.) If Charlie Crist bails on the GOP, there’s no telling how much it might cost him financially, but the Specter precedent suggests it could be a hell of a lot.

IL-Sen: Even Mark Kirk is smart enough to skip an IL GOP fundraiser headlined by Sarah Palin.

IN-Sen: With the GOP primary just days away, Dan Coats has floated himself a $200K lifeline. I wonder if it will be enough.

NV-Sen: Fuck it – Sue Lowden knows that when you’re at the bottom of a 2,000-foot deep mineshaft, you should keep fucking digging until you’ve reached China. That’s why she is still advocating the barter system. While this prolonged episode of inspired insanity is not helping her win any elections, it is helping her become one of the most awesome candidates of 2010. Meanwhile, GOP primary opponent Danny Tarkanian is shish-kebobbing Lowden for her “poultry-based healthcare plan.”

OH-Sen: Quinnipiac should have a poll out of the Dem senate primary this morning.

PA-Sen: Michael J. Fox has cut an ad for Arlen Specter, citing his support for medical research. Fox had previously done an ad for Specter in 2004 as well.

FL-Gov: Mocking gun ownership? And pissing law enforcement off in the process? It sounds like a deranged GOP fantasy of something they think Dems would love to do, but in fact, the Republican Party of Florida is the guilty party here. They put out a shitty web video mocking CFO Alex Sink, who authorized the purchase of “advanced weaponry” for law enforcement officers who operate out of her agency. The state PBA blistered AG Bill McCollum (who posted the video on his website) for this offense, noting with irony that he’s the state’s chief law enforcement officer.

GA-Gov: Ex-Rep. Nathan Deal has come out in favor of Arizona’s draconian new immigration law, apparently the first Republican gubernatorial candidate in Georgia to do so. While Deal trails badly in the polls and isn’t very likely to win the GOP nod, in my opinion, he might succeed in driving the Republican field to the right on this issue.

NY-Gov: Steve Levy, the Dem-turned-Republican who is hoping to get buzz-sawed by Andrew Cuomo in the fall, is apparently “likely” to get the endorsement of the Queens Republican Party. In order to get a spot on the GOP ballot line, he needs the support of 51% of the state’s county-level parties (which are weighted by size), because he’s still a registered Democrat. He claims to be at around 45%, but it’s not clear if Queens is already included in that tally. If Levy pulls it off, this will be an extraordinary humiliation for Rick Lazio, a man I thought was incapable of being humiliated further.

FL-16: Shut up and go away.

ID-01: Some Very Wacky Dude dropped out of the GOP primary the other day. On his way out, Michael Chadwick attacked another candidate, Vaughn Ward, for representing “powerful special interest groups in New York City and Washington, D.C.” He also called Ward a “protégé and surrogate of the military-industrial-intelligence establishment” who will “vote to build up and sustain the Permanent War Machine.” I hadn’t realized this, but another Republican, Allan Salzberg, also bailed last week.

MI-01: Is it crowded in here, or is it just me? State Rep. Matt Gillard, a Democrat, is the latest to enter the race. He joins two other state Reps, Joel Sheltrown and Gary McDowell, as well as Connie Saltonstall, in the Dem primary field.

NY-14: Reshma Saujani may want to re-think her pro-bankster platform as she attempts to unseat Rep. Carolyn Maloney: A new Marist poll shows that even Manhattanites consider Wall Street to be “more of the problem” rather than “more of the solution” by a 49-31 margin.

NY-15: As Liz Benjamin observes, Assembly Adam Clayton Powell IV hasn’t gotten a whole lot of establishment backing in his attempt to unseat Rep. Charlie Rangel, but a few of his colleagues on the Assembly are hosting a fundraiser for him. Seems pretty minor to me, though.

NY-29: Republicans are citing a case from the Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals in their attempt to force Gov. David Paterson to hold a special election to fill Eric Massa’s seat. The 6th Cir. ruled (PDF) that Art. I, § 2, ¶ 4 of the Constitution required then-Gov. Bob Taft of Ohio to hold a special election to fill Jim Traficant’s seat after he was expelled from Congress. However, there’s an old New York State Court of Appeals case, People v. Voorhis, 119 N.E. 106 (1918), which held otherwise – and if this goes before the federal courts in NY, the Second Circuit may very well rule differently from the Sixth.

Calendar: Be sure to bookmark SSP’s handy list of key primary & special elections in the very merry month of May.

KY-Sen: Obnoxious theocrat James Dobson is endorsing establishment dude Trey Grayson over weirdo Rand Paul. It feels like it’s gotten late early around here, with Grayson badly trailing in the last few polls, so you gotta wonder whether this or anything else can make much of a difference.

NV-Sen: According to Reid Wilson, the Tea Party Express (the political action wing, such as it is, of the teabaggers) says they’ll spend $100 to $150K on behalf of wingnut favorite Sharron Angle. Angle’s trailed pretty badly in most polling, though.

OH-Sen: With Ohio’s primary around the corner, the Hotline is reporting that the DSCC will apparently step into the race on Lee Fisher’s behalf. The not-terribly-well-funded Fisher is facing off against the almost-penniless Jennifer Brunner, but apparently Bob Menendez doesn’t want to take any chances.

WI-Sen: One-time beer baron Dick Leinenkugel officially decided to join the now-crowded GOP field hoping to take on Sen. Russ Feingold. Leinenkugel’s chief problem appears to be the fact that he just resigned as the governor’s Commerce Secretary… and the governor of Wisconsin is Jim Doyle, a Democrat. The Kugel’s new opponents were, needless to say, quick to point this out.

AZ-Gov: A couple of tidbits from a PPP poll that is slated to be released later today:

• Brewer has seen a significant improvement in her job approval numbers with Republicans. When we looked at the state in September she was under water even with voters of her own party, as 37% of them expressed disapproval of her job performance while only 28% felt she was doing a good job. Now 54% of Republicans approve of her and only 27% disapprove, so she’s seen a good deal of improvement on that front, which should be particularly helpful for her prospects of winning nomination for a full term against a crowded field of primary opponents.

• At the same time Democratic candidate Terry Goddard leads Brewer 71-25 with Hispanics. That may seem ho hum, but consider this: Barack Obama only won Hispanic voters in the state by a 56-41 margin. So Goddard’s outperforming him by more than 30 points there. And on our September poll Goddard was up just 53-33 with Hispanics so it’s a 26 point improvement on the margin even relative to that.

FL-22: Combustible Republican Allen West is flashing an internal poll (from Wilson Research Strategies) which allegedly has him up 44-42 over incumbent Dem Ron Klein.

IN-09: Todd Young, seeking the GOP nod against ultra-retread Mike Sodrel, has a new ad up on TV, trying to paint himself as the “true conservative” choice. To CQ’s credit, they asked how much is being spent on the ad. To the Young campaign’s discredit, they declined to say.

MI-01: The Republican field in this race is getting’ mighty crowded here, too. GOP state Sen. Jason Allen, who is term-limited, is the latest to seek the Republican nod to replace Bart Stupak.

Fundraising: CQ has a handy chart of pre-primary fundraising filings in the three states which have primaries next week: Indiana, North Carolina, and Ohio.

Immigration: The Hill surveys the races out West where Arizona’s new immigration law may bolster Latino turnout – and help Dems. Jon Ralston notes that Brian Sandoval, the GOP’s would-be savior in the NV-Gov race, has come out in favor of the law. This could all get very ugly – well, even uglier than it already is.