Author: DavidNYC

We’re part of the way through Minnesota’s gubernatorial nominating convention, which you can follow at the Star Tribune. After three rounds of voting, it’s:

Kelliher, 414.5 or 30.7 percent

Rybak, 370 or 27.4 percent

Thissen, 295 or 21.8 percent

Rukavina 269 or 19.9 percent

State Sen. John Marty dropped out just after the second round. Otherwise, things have not shifted much. Sixty percent is needed to secure the nomination, though several other candidates are pledging to fight through to the primary.

UPDATE: Apparently, Rukavina has dropped out and endorsed MAK. This happened after the fourth ballot, it appears, which MinnesotaMike says went:

MAK 437 (42.8%)

Rybak 380.5 (28.6%)

Thissen 285 (21.4%)

Rukavina 226 (17%)

No Endorsement 4

Strike that – there was an error. Trying again:

MAK: 437 (32.80%)

Rybak: 380.5 (28.56%)

Thissen: 285 (21.39%)

Rukavina: 226 (16.96%)

UPDATE (James): Rybak has pulled out of the race and thrown his support to Kelliher:

Surrounded by a crowd of green-shirted supporters, Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak took the podium at the DFL convention in Duluth Saturday night and withdrew from the race for governor, saying it was time for the DFL party “to come together and support Margaret Anderson Kelliher for governor.”

“Thank you so much,” he told a cheering crowd of activists who rose to their feet. “It is time for the greatest party in history to come together and support Margaret Anderson Kelliher.”

AR-Sen: Bill Halter and Blanche Lincoln are having a debate on Friday, and Politico’s Dave Catanese, one of the moderators, is asking for questions. Click the link to find his email address or Twitter account. Meanwhile, Blanche Lincoln, who has refused to return $4,500 she received from Goldman Sachs’s PAC, has cancelled a fundraiser with the firm.

CO-Sen: Struggling GOP front-runner Jane Norton has booted her top advisors in favor of some new names, including one which may sound a bit familiar: Josh Penry. He’s Norton’s new campaign manager… and also happens to be the sitting state Sen. Minority Leader who briefly ran for governor last year before getting pushed aside for ex-Rep. Scott McInnis. The Colorado legislative session is set to end soon (May 12), so maybe this won’t interfere too much with Penry’s day job.

IN-Sen: This is crappy even for John Hostettler, who usually makes the likes of Larry Kissell and Carol Shea-Porter look like fundraising champs: He raised just $37K since joining the race and has just $10K in the bank. Meanwhile, the hapless Dan Coats got an endorsement from fellow Hoosier Mike Pence, the third-ranking Republican in the House, presidential wannabe, and all-around moran.

WA-Sen: Though Dino Rossi has been largely dragging his feet about a run against Sen. Patty Murray, the DSCC is concerned enough that they supposedly have sent a squad of researchers to Washington to start digging up oppo. But wouldn’t Gov. Christine Gregoire, who beat Rossi twice, already have a mile-long file on him? Meanwhile, Teabagger King Jim DeMint says he won’t endorse anyone against Rossi if he gets in the race – and if anything, seems excited to give Rossi his support.

FL-08: The cast of characters running in the GOP primary in Florida’s 8th CD has been an ever-changing, tumultuous mix – and the field is about to get even more shook-up. Former State Sen. Daniel Webster, who said no to a run back in October, looks like he’s ready to change his mind and hop into the race after all. But while Webster might have cleared the field half a year ago, no one seems interested in bowing out for him now. We can only pray for cat fud galore.

Census: The nationwide census participation rate hit 71% earlier this week, just a point below the 2000 response rate, which officials say is unexpectedly high, given what they perceive as a growing mistrust of government. The Census Bureau had budgeted for a response rate of only 67%, so we’ve already saved $425 million.

Polling: Gallup has a new midterm-focused blog up and running called “2010 Central.”

Fundraising: CQ has a great chart compiling Senate fundraising numbers for Q1. SSP will have its usual House chart up at the end of this month.

Wall Street: Is financial regulation finally the issue that will let Dems find their mojo? Back to Dave Catanese again, who says that Paul Hodes, Lee Fisher and – believe it or not – Charlie Melancon are all bashing their opponents for standing in the way of Wall Street reform. Melancon’s cruddy voting record has made it hard for the DSCC to push out a coordinated message on most issues (he’s voted against a lot of big-ticket Dem legislation), but maybe now we can all speak with one voice on this topic.

NV-Sen: Who runs Bartertown? Sue Lowden runs Bartertown!

Nice to see some hard numbers pushing back against the grating beltway CW:

Vulnerable House Democrats who supported the healthcare bill last month reaped big financial rewards. …

Several of these members were last-minute yes votes, which helped push the legislation to passage.

Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D-N.D.) raised more than $140,000 from PACs and fellow members in the final 10 days of the quarter – which was more than one-third of the $400,000 total he raised for the entire quarter.

Rep. Scott Murphy (D-N.Y.) raised more than $100,000 from political committees after deciding to vote yes on the bill, and he raised about $475,000 overall.

Reps. Debbie Halvorson (D-Ill.) and Gabrielle Giffords (D-Ariz.) weren’t far behind, each raising more than $90,000 from PACs and fellow members of

Congress in the final week-plus of the quarter. Halvorson raised $410,000 total, while Giffords raised nearly $500,000.

And it’s not just individual candidates – the party committees saw a big bump, too. I don’t think healthcare reform is going to be our savior by any stretch – we’re going to have a brutal year pretty much no matter what. But the alternate – not passing anything – would have been vastly worse.

CA-Sen: Just a day after President Obama did three fundraisers for her campaign, Sen. Barbara Boxer says she expects the POTUS to be back next month for another event in San Francisco.

FL-Sen: The US Attorney’s Office, the FBI and the IRS are all investigating the possible misuse of credit cards by state Republican Party officials – a case which has already led to the indictment of former House Speaker Ray Sansom. In a separate investigation, the IRS is looking at Marco Rubio’s tax records to see if he misused his party credit cards for personal expenses. Meanwhile, state Rep. Tom Grady becomes the latest Charlie Crist ally to pull away from the campaign.

PA-Sen: PoliticsPA says that, according to a source, Joe Sestak’s week-long TV ad buy is “worth” $930,000. It’s not clear to me whether that’s how much Sestak is actually spending, though – it’s possible to lock in lower rates by reserving time in advance, which his campaign may have done here (thus inflating the “worth” of the buy). Meanwhile, in an email to supporters, Sestak is decrying Arlen Specter’s attacks on his service in the Navy as “Swift Boat-like.”

ME-Gov: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) for Libby Mitchell (4/11-14, likely voters, no trendlines):

Libby Mitchell (D): 36

Steve Rowe (D): 16

Pat McGowan (D): 13

John Richardson (D): 4

Rosa Scarcelli (D): 3

(MoE: ±4%)

If these names – all of whom are running in the Maine Democratic gubernatorial primary – aren’t familiar to you, follow the link to the Hotline for some background details.

MN-Gov: Dem Matt Entenza is going up on the air with TV and radio ads after the DFL’s statewide convention this weekend – but of course, no word on the size of the buy. Speaking of the convention, things are about to either get very interesting or a lot simpler in the MN gubernatorial race. Entenza and ex-Sen. Mark Dayton, who can both self-fund, are both saying they’ll fight on through the primary, while the two apparent frontrunners, state House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher and Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak, are pledging to abide by the convention’s endorsement.

AL-05: Notorious turncoat Rep. Parker Griffith is still sitting on $20K that various Democratic lawmakers have given him, supposedly because they haven’t asked for it back. This includes money from Rahm Emanuel, Nydia Velazquez, Rosa DeLauro and the retiring Bart Gordon, among others. Gordon, for what can only be bizarre, unspecified reasons, isn’t asking for his money back. Rahm, since he’s serving in the White House, won’t make a formal request, but twists the knife, saying “Whether the contribution is returned or not will be left up to Rep. Griffith’s conscience.” As for the rest of you dudes, DEMAND YOUR MONEY BACK!

CA-19: SurveyUSA (4/16-19, likely voters, 3/15-17 in parens):

Jeff Denham (R): 27 (25)

Jim Patterson (R): 26 (26)

Richard Pombo (R): 16 (13)

Larry Westerlund (R): 6 (7)

Undecided: 25 (29)

(MoE: ±3.6%)

Loraine Goodwin (D): 18 (14)

John Estrada (D): 15 (24)

Les Marsden (D): 10 (8)

Undecided (D): 56 (54)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Seriously, of all the races they could poll? I realize this is on behalf of a media client, but still.

DC-AL, UT-AL: Sigh. Legislation which would have given the District of Columbia an actual voting seat in the House is yet again being derailed. Republicans insist that any such bill also eviscerate any remaining gun control laws in the district, and they’ve frightened enough conservative Dems into supporting such an amendment that you can’t have one (the voting rights bill) without the other (the gun provision). The pro-gun measure has become even more absurd, though, such that Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton asked Steny Hoyer to pull the bill altogether. On the Senate side, Orrin Hatch had spazzed about the fact that the bill’s other sop to Republicans (a temporary extra seat for Utah) would have been at at-large district – he wants to be able to re-draw the lines (and presumably screw Dem Rep. Jim Matheson) – and said he was glad the bill got scuttled.

HI-01: The D-Trip just spent another $55K on a second negative TV ad attacking Charles Djou, which you can see here. Meanwhile, in light of recent polling showing this unusual jungle race to be incredibly tight, SSP is changing its rating from “Lean Dem” to “Tossup.

MI-01: Term-limited Dem state Rep. Gary McDowell will apparently run to succeed Bart Stupak. McDowell is from the Upper Peninsula, which Crisitunity aptly described as the district’s “cultural center of gravity.” One possible holdup, though, is that it sounds like McDowell may be willing to defer to former House Democratic Floor Leader Pat Gagliardi, who has not yet made up his mind.

NY-29: Dem Matthew Zeller, tapped by county leaders as the Democratic nominee in the (potential) special election to succeed Eric Massa, formally launched his campaign on Monday. However, it’s starting to look like there won’t be a special election after all, which means there will be a primary. If that winds up being the case, businessman David Nachbar (who withdrew his name from consideration for the special) has said he might run.

WV-01: Rep. Alan Mollohan is going on the air with a TV ad that attacks his primary opponent, state Sen. Mike Oliverio, “for his ties to a conservative-leaning organization of state legislators.” Oliverio had previously launched an ad attacking Mollohan on ethical grounds. No word on the size of either buy.

Alaska: Alaska’s state legislature voted to increase its size, by two seats in the Senate and four in the House. AK’s population has tripled since statehood fifty years ago, but its lege had remained constant in numbers. What’s more, its rural districts are enormous, and would have gotten even larger after redistricting as the population concentrates in the state’s few big cities.

Polling: Reid Wilson, diving into recent FEC reports, notes that few Dems commissioned polls in the first quarter of this year – and among those who have, pretty much no one is sharing the data with the public. However, Reid doesn’t say whether Republicans have spent similarly on internal polling in the past quarter, or how Q1 2010 compares with prior years.

RNC: God bless Michael Steele. Under his stewardship, the RNC decided to blow $340K to hold a big staff meeting in… Hawaii. Because that’s both convenient and inexpensive. If Dems suffer anything less than an utter blowout this fall, we’ll be able to thank Steele in no small part.

WATN?: Former Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick, who already served 99 days in jail for obstruction of justice (among other things), may be headed back to prison for probation violations (including hiding assets).

Money makes the world go ’round. Here are the March fundraising numbers for the six major party committees (February numbers are here):

Unfortunately I can’t find the link at the moment, but I earlier today I saw an analysis which indicated that the DNC raked in a huge proportion of its monthly haul in the last ten days of March – that is to say, after healthcare passed. I’d like to see if the RNC was similarly affected.

Today is definitely the right day for a ganja break….

CA-Sen: President Obama was out in California doing not one but three separate fundraising events for Sen. Barbara Boxer. The fundraisers are expected to bring in between $3 and $3.5 million, split between the DNC and the Boxer campaign. But I can’t imagine it will be an even split, seeing as donation caps for party committees are more than ten times greater than for campaigns.

DE-Sen: WTF? Can someone please explain to me why, of all people, Chris Van Hollen – the chair of the DCCC – is helping to fluff Republican Rep. Mike Castle’s bipartisan cred? CVH is co-sponsoring legislation with Castle which is aimed at “responding” to the Supreme Court’s Citizens United ruling. The merits of the issue aside, why on earth give a gift like this to Castle?

PA-Sen: The primary is just a month away – so Joe Sestak finally has to blow his cash hoard on a crunch-time push against Arlen Specter, right? PoliticsPA says that their sources are confirming Sestak will at last go on the air with TV ads today, but doesn’t have any details on the size or breadth of the buy.

MI-01: Dem state Sen. Mike Prusi, who had been weighing a bid to succeed retiring Rep. Bart Stupak, says he won’t run. There are still several Dems in the mix, though.

Chicago-Mayor: After denying it for quite some time, Rahm Emanuel finally admitted to Charlie Rose that he would like to be mayor of Chicago some day – but that he wouldn’t challenge his “dear friend” Richard Daley.

Polling: Nate Silver points up an interesting issue with Rasmussen’s “House Effect.” Rasmussen defenders often argue that the firm’s likely voter screen produces more-Republican results because conservatives are more fired up this cycle. The problem with that claim is that Rasmussen does release one set of numbers that cover all adults and are not screened in any way: their monthly partisan ID tracker. And on this measure, too, Ras is six points redder than average. Nate offers a few guesses as to why Ras leans this way even without any screening.

CT-Sen: It looks like Dick Blumenthal, who hasn’t run a competitive race in 20 years, has a lot of rust to shed on the campaign trail. An NYT article paints an unflattering portrait of Blumenthal’s political skills, describing his long-winded and legalistic answers to simple questions, and a flop in a debate against an unknown primary opponent. (Please tell me why Blumenthal’s campaign team consented to a debate against Merrick Alpert in the first place?) None of this is making me feel very good.

KY-Sen: Heh – from the king of fuck-yous comes a final hurrah: Retiring Sen. Jim Bunning is endorsing weirdo Rand Paul in the Republican primary to succeed him, snubbing establishment pick Trey Grayson. Considering that Bunning was shoved aside very much against his will to make way for Grayson, this last knife-twist makes sense.

NY-Sen-B: Here’s one clear reason why Kirsten Gillibrand has scared off legions of opponents, including George Pataki: She raked in another $1.6 million in the first quarter, bringing her total raised since she became a senator to $8.8 million. No word on her cash-on-hand yet, though.

OH-Sen: Dem Lee Fisher’s Q1 haul doesn’t look too pretty – just $550K, and with only $1.8 million on hand, and his warchest will undoubtedly shrink heading into his primary with SoS Jennifer Brunner (Fisher just went up with an introductory TV ad). For her part, Brunner hasn’t released her numbers yet. (GOPer Rob Portman has $7.6 million on hand.)

FL-Gov: Yowza. Republican rich guy Rick Scott, who appeared on the gubernatorial scene out of nowhere just days ago, says he’ll spend $1.5 million of his own money on a statewide TV and radio ad buy this week. Is he trying to Meg Whitman his way into contention?

PA-12: The NRCC has spent another $50K on media on behalf of Tim Burns. The D-Trip hasn’t laid out any cash here yet.

TN-08: We noted in a previous digest that Rob Kirkland has been filing independent expenditures on behalf of his brother, Ron Kirkland, who is in the midst of a competitive GOP primary to replace retiring Rep. John Tanner. The two claim they are no longer communicating (if they did, they’d be violating the no-coordination rules required for IEs), but a local attorney (who is supporting another campaign, but won’t tell which) says he doesn’t buy it and has filed a complaint with the FEC.

WATN?: This is very good news: President Obama has nominated former Rep. Don Cazayoux to be U.S. Attorney for the Middle District of Louisiana. Here’s hoping he is swiftly confirmed. Cazayoux is only 46, so this post would put him in great position to stage a return to electoral politics some day, if he so chooses.

Zata|3 (D) for Talk Business (4/14, likely voters, no trendlines):

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 38

Bill Halter (D): 31

D.C. Morrison (D): 10

Undecided: 20

(MoE: ±3%)

Zata|3 (yes, the pipe is actually part of their name) is yet another polling firm I’m not familiar with, but at least Talk Business is mixing it up – for their CD-level polls, they used a Republican outfit, while Zata is a Dem firm. Unhappy (of course) about these results, the Lincoln campaign did something we haven’t seen a whole lot of this cycle – they released a dueling internal. A Lincoln spokesbot also attacked the Talk Business poll for being “very unreliable” because it was automated (eyeroll).

Benenson Strategy Group (D) (PDF) for Blanche Lincoln (4/5-7, likely voters, no trendlines):

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 53

Bill Halter (D): 35

D.C. Morrison (D): 4

Undecided: 8

(MoE: ±3.8%)

Note that I’m using the numbers with leaners as detailed in the PDF, rather than the non-leaner numbers cited in the press release, which have Lincoln up 51-34. Incidentally, D.C. Morrison is some weirdo conservative Paulist that I’d never heard of until, well, just now.

CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer says she raised $2.4 million in Q1, with $8.7 mil on hand. GOPer Tom Campbell raised $1.6 mil. No word yet from the other Republicans.

NC-Sen: Cal Cunningham is launching his first TV ad, in introductory spot. Apparently the buy (so far) is just $45K. Separately, Cunningham told the AP that he doesn’t support the card check provisions of the Employee Free Choice Act, despite apparently telling a Teamsters official that he does. Still, the Teamsters are standing by their endorsement of Cunningham.

AL-07: Collingwood Research for Shelia Smoot (3/30-4/1, likely Democratic primary voters):

Shelia Smoot (D): 33

Earl Hilliard Jr. (D): 28

Terry Sewell (D): 12

Martha Bozeman (D): 6

Undecided/other: 20

(MoE: 4%)

FL-24: Steak baron Craig Miller says he raised $340K in his first two months in his race to unseat Dem Rep. Suzanne Kosmas. There’s still a very competitive GOP primary to contend with, though.

MA-04: Surprise, surprise: Laura Ingraham is full of shit. The wingnut radio hostess tweeted some b.s. “rumor” that Barney Frank was going to retire. Frank did not hesitate to call Ingraham’s post a “lie.”

NY-14: Reshma Saujani raised $400K in Q1 in her bid to unseat Rep. Carolyn Maloney in the Democratic primary. Maloney, however, raised $475K and has $2 million on hand.

PA-12: Joe Biden, who is originally from Pennsylvania, will return to the state of his birth later this month to campaign for Dem Mark Critz in the upcoming PA-12 special election.

PA-17: Another Pennsylvania ballot challenge, this time against Dem Sheila Dow-Ford, has come undone in the courtroom. Dow-Ford is challenging Rep. Tim Holden in the primary.

DCCC: D-Trip Chair Chris Van Hollen was a busy man over the congressional recess. In addition to mucking up the HI-01 special election, he also campaigned for Reps. Leonard Boswell, Steve Kagen (twice), Mark Schauer and Gary Peters.

Polltopia: Voting is now open in PPP’s next pick-a-poll. I don’t think we’ve tried to freep these before, but come on, people – don’t you want to see a poll of PA-12?

WATN?: Former NM-01 Rep. Heather Wilson is being treated for thyroid cancer. We wish her a speedy recovery. Meanwhile, ex-Rep. Jim Saxton (NJ-03) has joined up with – you’ll never believe it – a DC lobbying firm. It never ends.

Babka: Did you know that Green’s babkas are so dense that airport x-ray scanners cannot see through them? Extra density = extra deliciousness – and, apparently, good insulation against high-frequency electromagnetic radiation. If only Lex Luthor had known!

It’s time we got back in the habit of doing community cattle calls – we haven’t done one for the Senate in a year. Click that link to see how much things have changed since then.

In case you haven’t done one of these before, rank the senate seats that are up this year in order of likelihood of flipping from one party to the other. The traditional SSP way is to include seats held by both parties in a single list (separate lists make comparisons harder). Go as far down the list as you like. If you need some food for thought, check out Swing State’s senate race ratings. Have fun!