Author: DavidNYC

A potentially big score for the Obama team:

President Obama on Saturday selected one of the nation’s leading Republican governors to serve as the ambassador to China, nominating Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman for the diplomatic post that Mr. Obama called “as important as any in the world.” …

Mr. Huntsman, 49, learned to speak Mandarin Chinese during his days as a Mormon missionary in Taiwan. He has worked in two Bush administrations, serving as the ambassador to Singapore in the final year of George H.W. Bush’s term and as a deputy United States trade ambassador for George W. Bush. …

For Mr. Obama, whose advisers already have their eyes set on his re-election in 2012, the selection of Mr. Huntsman is something of a political coup. He has emerged as one of the nation’s most visible Republican governors and was expected to at least consider seeking his party’s presidential nomination to run against Mr. Obama. …

It was far from certain whether Mr. Huntsman would have actually sought the Republican presidential nomination – his centrist views could have created a challenge in early-voting states – but if he is confirmed by the Senate for the ambassadorship to China, he is part of the Obama team at a time when China is of critical importance. And he is out of the mix in the 2012 presidential race.

Utah’s much more conservative Lt. Gov., Gary Herbert, stands to take Huntsman’s place in the governor’s mansion. Discussion underway in safi’s diary.

Quelle surprise:

Democrat Joe Torsella is dropping out of the Pennsylvania Senate race, according to two well-placed Democratic sources, leaving Sen. Arlen Specter (D-Pa.) with no serious opposition in the Democratic primary – at least for now.

Looks like it’s Sestak or bust at this point.

Oh, this amused the hell out of me:

Republicans are getting inspiration on how to rebuild their party in the U.S. Congress from an unlikely source: White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel.

California Representative Kevin McCarthy, the chief recruiter for House Republicans, said he wants his party to select candidates based less on ideology and more on their chances of winning. The goal, he said, is to seek out prospects who are ethnically diverse, female, less partisan and even supportive of abortion rights. So far, these efforts are more concept than reality. (Emphasis added)

Ya think? The fact is, even if Kevin McCarthy truly meant it, and even if there weren’t legions of movement conservatives standing in his way, there just aren’t that many “moderate” Republicans out there worth recruiting. The GOP’s vaunted discipline has produced a pipeline filled mostly with Aaron Schocks – it’s pretty hard to be a Republican up-and-comer if you deviate from party orthodoxy. And what few moderates there are know that they’d be stuck in a deep minority and subject to endless arm-twisting. Why go to Congress when you’d have to start voting (much) more right-wing than you actually are?

I don’t want to sound too triumphalist here – we will face a number of tough challenges next year. But it is the Democrats who have always had the far larger tent. It’s our main weakness but also our key strength. It’s why we have dudes representing districts like ID-01 and TX-17 and UT-02. So as I say above, the GOP simply is not set up on an institutional level to ape our approach. But anyhow, good luck trying!

(Hat-tip: reader WC)

I’m putting this in the diaries because it’s a “meta” topic – but it’s still a very important one. I love the Swing State Project. I really do. I’ve been maintaining this site (often with all kinds of help, but sometimes on my own) for over five years. That’s an eternity in blog time.

I love this site because it’s focused – sharply focused – on a niche I find endlessly interesting and entertaining. For partisan political junkies, the horserace is the sine qua non of political change. Unless you elect the right guys and keep them there, you’ll never pass the bills you want passed, issue the regulations you want issued, appoint the judges you want appointed. It’s the alpha of whatever omega we’re all hoping for.

I also love this site because it’s a calm, civil place free from almost all of the incessant holy wars that almost any site with decent traffic regularly experiences. People here tend to keep their eyes on the prize. They analyze the horserace dispassionately and with good humor. They avoid the hot-button issues that produce a lot of heat and precious little light. They make this the kind of place that makes you feel smarter after you’ve finished reading.

We’ve worked really hard over the years to set the tone and keep things this way. Almost all the members of this community appreciate this, respect this, and maintain the calmness and civility this blog is known for.

But lately, we’ve seen conversations derail far too often. And it’s really disappointing to me. This is the Swing State Project. We talk about the horse race. Don’t get me wrong – there are a ton of issues that are important to me, whether it’s healthcare, the environment, gay marriage, or Employee Free Choice. There are also a ton of places I can discuss them to my heart’s content.

Just. Not. Here.

The main reason why people come to this site is to geek out about polls. The reason people keep coming back is because of the friendly, welcoming atmosphere. They know that there are a zillion-and-one other blogs out there for discussing any topic under the sun. SSP is for just one of them.

So, enough. Do not be this guy. Don’t take the bait. Don’t get sidetracked. This site is for one topic only. We like it that way, and so do you.

We regularly come by polls at SSP that are either dodgy, dull, or both. While we don’t intend to give them all air time, enough have blasted out of the circus cannon in the last week to justify this roundup. Here’s what we’ve got:

• IL-Sen: Some anonymous Republican outfit leaked a poll to Lynn Sweet, but only offered some transparently selective questions – two Mark Kirk head-to-heads that showed him tied with Alexi Giannoulias and Chris Kennedy, son of RFK. There’s also a Dem primary poll which shows Jan Schakowsky leading the pack with all of 20%. Nothing (released?) on Lisa Madigan.

• NH-Sen: Why is it that universities in the Granite State keep polling Cloud Hampshire? Dartmouth is the latest offender, ginning up a 32R-28D sample (real numbers: 29D-29R). Still, Paul Hodes leads John Sununu 38-35, though he somehow has much lower numbers against Charlie Bass, 31-30. No way the Bassmaster inspires a seven-point dither.

• NY-Gov: Quinnipiac’s latest poll is just fine, but there’s really nothing new to see here: Paterson gets pounded by Cuomo and Rudy. Same old. There is one notable datapoint: Cuomo’s lead against Giuliani has slipped from 53-36 to 47-41. The pollster offers no real explanation for this, and I’d personally like to see confirmation elsewhere.

• NYC-Mayor:  Marist’s newest survey is almost identical to their last, with Bloombo leading Weiner 50-36 and Thompson 51-33. Weiner really needs to outright declare that he’s not running for Thompson to have any shot, but just the other day he said the mayor’s attacks on him have made him “more inclined to run.” Guys, the election is just six months away. Quit wasting time.

• OK-Gov: Two polls for ya here. First, a company called SoonerPoll pushed out a GOP primary survey with a sample size of just 139. That’s an MoE over eight. Try again, folks. FWIW, it had Mary Fallin leading JC Watts 45-28. Perhaps to counter this news, a Republican company called Wilson Research Strategies released a poll showing Watts up 39-36. This one at least had a respectable n of 500, though it seems no one (including Wilson) has explained who paid for this poll.

UPDATE: Chris Wilson of Wilson Research writes in:

To follow up on your post regarding who paid for our poll, I did.  We had another survey in the field and I paid to add the GOP primary questions on there simply for the purposes of interest.

In a statement:

Today, I’m announcing I will be a candidate for Governor of Florida in the November 2010 election, and put my business experience and know-how to work restoring our economy.

This is great news for Florida Dems – this seat instantly rockets to the top of our big-state pickup lists. As such, the Swing State Project is moving this from a Safe R “Race to Watch” to Tossup.

And this is what Roll Call found:

Well, for starters, Ball was accused of stalking a former girlfriend, who got a temporary order of protection against him. He’s been accused of posting on the Web misleading photographs of an encampment of illegal immigrants in his legislative district. A dead goat was found recently in his front yard – the work, Ball believes, of Salvadoran gangs who oppose his tough anti-immigration stance – and he’s been sleeping with a 12-gauge shotgun under his bed ever since. And until recently he has been in a vicious blood feud with his political enemies – who by the way, happen to be fellow Republicans.

Oh yes, Ball was also accused of sexually harassing a former Assembly aide. Details of this are scant on the Web, but in his conversation with Roll Call, which borders on the surreal at times, Ball dutifully provides some. The woman, he says, was put up to it by the establishment Republicans who were waging jihad against him. And the bottom line, from his point of view, is that the Assembly Standing Committee on Ethics and Guidance “cleared” him.

Which is technically true. On Oct. 20, 2008, the committee issued a letter – which is available online – saying an investigation into the accusation found that a violation of the Assembly’s Sexual Harassment/Retaliation Policy “was not established.” The committee also makes it a point to say that the statute of limitations on the woman’s accusations had run out, so the Assembly couldn’t have taken any action anyway.

A clean exoneration? Ball likes to think so. Google him – and judge for yourself.

Maybe he should just shut up now.

A few months ago, this possibility seemed shocking, and nothing if not remote. But now it’s happened:

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist announced Tuesday morning he will run for U.S. Senate.

On his Twitter page, Crist wrote, “After thoughtful consideration with my wife Carole, I have decided to run for the U.S. Senate.”

Twitter – how cute. Quite unusually (but you can understand the motivation), John Cornyn and the NRSC instantly endorsed Crist. Conservative belle du jour Marco Rubio fired right back (also on Twitter! how savvy): “Disappointed GOP senate comm endorses Crist on day 1. Remember that reform must always come from the outside. Status quo won’t change itself.”

Rubio also released a new attack ad (not sure if it’s airing on TV, or if it’s just web fodder) linking Obama and Crist, with a photo showing them embracing. If Crist survives the primary, this tactic might wind up doing him a favor, assuming Obama is still popular in eighteen months from now. But the Republican contest ought to be a lot of fun no matter what.

In any event, with polling showing Crist far ahead in the GOP primary, the Swing State Project is changing its rating on FL-Sen from Tossup to Likely R – for now. It’s still early. We also anticipate changing our rating on the FL-Gov race soon, too.

 

A couple of slightly differing reports. The NY Post says:

Long Island Congressman Steve Israel will announce plans to challenge US Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand in next year’s Democratic primary as early as tomorrow, several sources said yesterday.

The Suffolk County Democrat, who was first elected to Congress in 2000 and is a member of the Appropriations Committee, told several members of the state’s congressional delegation of his plans to challenge Gillibrand late Friday, congressional sources revealed.

Glenn Thrush at the Politico says Israel will form an exploratory committee rather than launch a formal challenge. These days, that seems to be a distinction without a difference – I haven’t crunched any numbers, but it sure feels like many if not most prominent exploratory committees turn into the real thing. An Israel spokesman, though, is denying that there is any sort of announcement planned for this week.

Supposedly, Carolyn Maloney will soon create an exploratory committee, too. I imagine if one or both of these folks get in, Carolyn McCarthy will bow out, citing her desire to see someone younger challenge Gillibrand (she’s older than both Maloney and Israel). But if either Israel or Maloney are to have any chance, I can’t imagine Gillibrand would be beatable in a three-way race. Someone’s gonna have to give.

Meanwhile, Chuck Schumer, who was busy declaring the other day there would be no primary, is now supposedly backing off. David Paterson is also apparently staying out of things, though if I were Kirsten Gillibrand, I’m not sure I’d want him within a hundred yards of the campaign van. If anything, suggests a canny Maloney confidant, Gillibrand might be forced to support Paterson, since he is her recent patron, after all.

Anyhow, open seat fans & worry-warts: Obama pounded McCain 56-43 in Israel’s suburban Long Island district (NY-02), but its PVI nonetheless fell to D+4 from D+8. Given how Long Island has turned over the last fifteen years, the Dems would have an advantage in any open seat race here. McCarthy’s NY-04, at D+6, would be fairly similar. Maloney’s NY-14, however, would be a mortal lock for the Dems (D+26).

Mitch McConnell must keep tearing his hair out:

Bunning touted his conservative credentials and congressional voting record and asked his fellow Republicans for support in the coming year. He reiterated his re-election plans.

“I am nobody’s puppet. I am my own man,” Bunning said during his remarks. “I hope and pray I can count on your support in the coming months. The battle is going to be long, but I am prepared to fight for my values. I hope you are with me.”

McConnell declined to address Bunning’s 2010 race or any fissure between him and Kentucky’s junior senator. After the speech, McConnell said he liked Bunning “a lot” but did not answer other questions about the race.

Of note: Secretary of State Trey Grayson, a potential Bunning replacement (or dethroner), was emcee at the event, but didn’t discuss his Senate plans.