AR-Sen: Griffin (R) Won’t Run Against Lincoln (Apparently)

Blanche Lincoln catches a break:

Former interim U.S. Attorney and Karl Rove aide Tim Griffin says he’s no longer considering running for the Republican nomination to challenge Sen. Blanche Lincoln next year.

Griffin said Sunday that he’s focused on his other responsibilities, including his service in the U.S. Army Reserves’ Judge Advocate General’s Corps as a major. Griffin told The Associated Press that he thinks Lincoln, a Democrat seeking a third term, is still vulnerable and will keep a close eye on the race.

Who knows what “keep a close eye on the race means” – maybe he’d let himself be dragged back into it in the future. But for now, at least, Griffin is laying down his arms. And it’s a good thing for us, too, as the lone poll of this race showed him quite competitive with the incumbent Lincoln. Griffin has all sorts of baggage, as a Rove acolyte who was at the epicenter of the Alberto Gonzalez-US Attorney scandal – but still, we’re better off without him in our faces, since the GOP bench is otherwise not terribly strong:

State Sen. Kim Hendren, as one Republican operative recently put it, “that Jewed” himself out of the race with his completely inappropriate reference to Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y. State Sen. Gilbert Baker has yet to make up his mind. That leaves Curtis Coleman, the Little Rock biotech executive, who recently formed an exploratory committee. He’s the only candidate inching toward the race.

Lincoln may get very lucky in the end.

VA-Gov: SUSA Has McAuliffe Holding Lead, but Deeds Moves Up 4

SurveyUSA (5/17-19, likely voters, late April in parens):

Terry McAuliffe (D): 37 (38)

Brian Moran (D): 22 (22)

Creigh Deeds (D): 26 (22)

Other/Undecided: 14 (18)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Creigh Deeds (D): 40 (39)

Bob McDonnell (R): 46 (44)

Terry McAuliffe (D): 40 (39)

Bob McDonnell (R): 46 (46)

Brian Moran (D): 37 (34)

Bob McDonnell (R): 47 (46)

(MoE: ±2.4%)

Reasearch 2000 will have a new primary poll out tomorrow, and PPP will have one Friday or Saturday. They note that the three candidates are evenly split among frequent primary voters, but more casual voters lean decidedly toward McAuliffe. The primary is on June 9th.

UT-Sen: Shurtleff to Challenge Bennett

From Roll Call:

Utah Attorney General Mark Shurtleff (R) launched his 2010 primary challenge to three-term Sen. Bob Bennett (R) on Wednesday at a press conference at the Utah Capitol building.

He also sent the announcement to his supporters via Twitter.

That sure is amusing, seeing as Shurtleff screwed up his announcement a week ago by doofily blasting it around on… Twitter. Anyhow, Shurtleff is going full steam ahead here, despite speculation that he might switch over to the gubernatorial race (for which there will now be a special election in 2010, in the wake of Gov. John Huntsman accepting the ambassadorship to China).

According to Roll Call, Shurtleff claims to have an internal poll which shows a “dead heat” between him and Bennett. But the only public poll I’m aware of (a February R2K survey) showed Bennett ahead 46-20. As Crisitunity noted, though, Shurtleff may be planning on staging a coup at the state party convention, possibly rendering the primary irrelevant.

UPDATE: More on that Shurtleff internal here, and a partial memo here (PDF). It polled primary voters and convention delegates (not exactly sure how they managed to survey that second sample). Shurtleff actually did better among the former, trailing 40-37. Among delegates, Bennett led 38-31. (Hat-tip: reader SD.)

IL-Sen: Chris Kennedy to Run

Michael Sneed of the Chicago Sun-Times says:

Sneed has learned the Merchandise Mart’s Chris Kennedy, son of the late U.S. Sen. Robert F. Kennedy, will announce next week he is running for the U.S. Senate.

Sneed has also learned Kennedy, who lives with his wife, Sheila, and four children in Kenilworth, has hired the prestigious media consultant firm AKPD [founded by Obama Senior Advisor David Axelrod] and has already shot his first TV campaign commercial. …

Kennedy commissioned a poll last month using Obama pollster John Anzalone, which Kennedy sources claim was very encouraging.

Just a word of caution: I don’t have any reason to believe this information isn’t true, but three weeks ago, a different Chicago Sun-Times columnist, Lynn Sweet, posted an item claiming Mark Kirk would run for the Senate. When that information turned out to be wrong, she edited her post without making a note of the change.

NJ-Gov: Christie Says It “Makes Sense” to Reject Stimulus Money

New Jersey Republican gubernatorial candidate Chris Christie apparently wants to join his party’s League of Extraordinary Gentlemen:

Transcript:

HANNITY: What do you think of some of these governors who aren’t taking some stimulus money? Governor Palin, Sanford, Bobby Jindal, Rick Perry. What do you think of that?

CHRISTIE: I think it makes sense. If they’re going to put strings on that money, then they’re going to tie your hands and make you expand programs. And not be able to have the freedom of choice that people elected you for. Then you shouldn’t take the money.

Jed Lewison (my Daily Kos colleague who pulled together this clip) observed that it seems as though Christie isn’t just defending the governors who’ve made noise about rejecting stimulus money. Rather, he’s making it sound like if he doesn’t have complete disrection to spend the funds however he wants, he’d reject the stimulus cash outright himself. That’s $2 billion he’d be spurning, including $60 million in law enforcement funds. Christie, by the way, is a former US Attorney.

FL-Gov/Sen: Mase-Dix Has McCollum Over Sink, Crist Crushing

Mason Dixon (PDF) for Ron Sachs Communications (5/14-18, registered voters for general, likely voters for primaries, April 2009 in parens).

Senate primary matchups:

Kendrick Meek (D): 26

Dan Gelber (D): 16

Undecided: 58

Charlie Crist (R): 53

Marco Rubio (R): 18

Undecided: 29

(MoE: ±6%)

Senate general election matchups:

Kendrick Meek (D): 24

Charlie Crist (R): 55

Undecided: 21

Dan Gelber (D): 22

Charlie Crist (R): 57

Undecided: 21

(MoE: ±4%)

Governor primary matchups:

Jeb Bush (R): 64

Bill McCollum (R): 13

Charles Bronson (R): 2

Undecided: 21

Bill McCollum (R): 39

Charles Bronson (R): 12

Undecided: 49

(MoE: ±6%)

Governor general election matchups:

Alex Sink (D): 34 (35)

Bill McCollum (R): 40 (36)

Undecided: 26 (29)

Alex Sink (D): 37

Charles Bronson (R): 29

Undecided: 34

Alex Sink (D): 34

Jeb Bush (R): 50

Undecided: 16

(MoE: ±4%)

The poll sample was 43D, 38R and 19I. I’m including the results of an early April Mason-Dixon poll as a trendline for the Sink-McCollum matchup, even though it was taken for a different client – the question wording was identical, and the sample size very similar.

SSP Daily Digest: 5/19

AL-07: Former Selma Mayor James Perkins (who was defeated in his attempt to seek a third term in 2008) is jumping into the open seat race here. He is likely to draw support away from Terri Sewell, Artur Davis’s preferred successor, also a Selma native.

AL-Gov: Speaking of good ol’ Artur, he’s released an internal poll which shows him up 56-26 over Ron Sparks and 54-25 over Sue Bell in the Dem primary. He also purports to lead Republican Bradley Byrne by a 43-38 margin. I’m finding it hard to believe that a congressman has such high name rec (59-6 for Davis among Dems statewide!). But the best checksum: This survey has Obama’s favorables at 58%. Last month, SUSA had them at just 48%. Which do you think is more likely? In other AL-Gov news, state Sen. Roger Bedford (D) says he won’t run.

IA-Gov: State Auditor David Vaudt, one of only two Republicans holding statewide office in Iowa, has declined to challenge incumbent Gov. Chet Culver next year.

NC-Sen: Both Reps. Bob Etheridge and Mike McIntyre are leaving the door open to a Senate bid, with McIntyre sounding more enthused. Meanwhile, Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton is “not considering” the race, Raleigh Mayor Charles Meeker is “not looking at running,” and state Rep. Grier Martin claims his “decision to decline a chance to run against Elizabeth Dole was also not to run in 2010.”

NV-Gov: Jim Gibbons’ poll numbers are just horrendous – in a new Mason-Dixon survey for the Las Vegas Review-Journal, 54% say they would “definitely vote to replace” him. Gibbons’ campaign manager claims things are lookin’ up, because his boss’s approvals were 25-69 in a January Reno Gazette poll but are an awesome 17-52 in this one.

NV-Sen: Meanwhile, the same poll finds pretty lousy numbers for Harry Reid as well, but better than Gibbons’. Reid gets 45% “definitely replace,” but his approvals are “only” 38-50. The big difference, of course, is that the GOP doesn’t really have any strong candidates to challenge Reid, while plenty of folks are lining up to take a whack at Gibbons.

FL-CFO: Checking in with an old friend, it looks like Annette Taddeo is considering a run to replace Alex Sink as Florida’s Chief Financial Officer.

Redistricting: CQ has a story on five key races that could affect congressional redistricting. Roll Call has published the second half of its two-part series on the same subject (part one here). And finally, the National Conference of State Legislatures is holding the first in a series of training seminars on redistricting in San Francisco, June 11-14.

NRCC Finally Announces First Round of Patriot Program

Three months ago, the NRCC announced its “Patriot Program,” a Frontline-like effort to protect the most vulnerable Republican members of the House. But then, they did nothing – no announcements, no lists, nothing. For three months. Until, finally, today. Here’s the first-round list:




































































Name District PVI 2008
Margin
Dan Lungren CA-03 R+6 6%
Ken Calvert CA-44 R+6 2%
Brian Bilbray CA-50 R+3 5%
Judy Biggert IL-13 R+1 10%
Joseph Cao LA-02 D+25 3%
Thad McCotter MI-11 R+0 6%
Erik Paulsen MN-03 R+0 8%
Leonard Lance NJ-07 R+3 8%
Christopher Lee NY-26 R+6 14%
Dave Reichert WA-08 D+3 6%

Note that despite the PVIs, the only district on here which Obama did not win was NY-26 (carried by McCain 52-46). There are also some pretty notable absences on this list, such as Mike Castle (DE-AL), Mark Kirk (IL-10), Jim Gerlach (PA-06), and Bill Young (FL-10). All of these guys could run for higher office or retire, so maybe the NRCC is tipping its hand here – or just hedging its bets.

FL-Gov: AG Bill McCollum (R) Announces Run

From the Sunshine State:

Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum launched his fourth bid for statewide office in his hometown of Orlando on Monday, announcing he would try to keep the governor’s office in Republican hands in 2010. …

Since Gov. Charlie Crist’s decision last week to run for the U.S. Senate instead of re-election, Republican political leaders hoping to avoid a primary have rushed to throw their support behind McCollum, 64, a 20-year former Central Florida congressman who ran for the Senate twice during this decade.

McCollum is the first major Republican to announce he would try to replace Crist, although Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Bronson of Osceola County has said he will decide this week whether he would also run.

Partisans with long memories will recall that McCollum was one of the House impeachment “managers” who led the infamous witchhunt against Bill Clinton. He also got beaten by Bill Nelson for the open seat Senate race in 2000, and then lost to Mel Martinez in the GOP primary four years later.

A Mason-Dixon poll released last month showed a tie game between McCollum and the likely Dem nominee, CFO Alex Sink, who of course just got into the race last week. SSP currently rates this race a Tossup.

Keeping SSP SSP

A few days ago, I wrote a post about the Swing State Project’s mission. I was heartened by the comments, which were very supportive. Nonetheless, certain users have persisted in derailing discussions on this site in exactly the ways I made clear were unacceptable.

To preserve the way virtually all of us want the site to function, we are temporarily suspending the posting privileges of several users who were the worst abusers in the recent NY-Sen-B and UT-Gov posts. If you find yourself unable to comment or post diaries on the site, you are one of the affected users.

If you participated in these derailments but can still post, that does not mean you have our approval. We could have suspended far more people than we chose to. All participants should consider themselves on notice and take care to avoid abusing the site in the future.

If your privileges were suspended, you can request reinstatement after Memorial Day by sending me an email. Reinstatement will not be automatic, and contrition is advised. Note: We will remain exceptionally vigilant should anyone attempt to create a sock-puppet account. Doing so will be grounds for permanent banning.

It gives me no pleasure to do this. We’ve never had to do anything like this before, and I hope we never do again. And to be clear, the vast majority of site users have remained true to the spirit of the site. For this we are very grateful. Yet often the actions of a few can disrupt things for the many, and so we feel compelled to take action. Thank you all for your understanding.