Author: DavidNYC

Lot of NY-23 stuff to talk about. First up, the timing of the actual election. Hotline sez ($):

NY Board of Elections spokesperson John Conklin writes, if the vacancy happens soon, Gov. David Paterson (D) has the option of calling a special, “and then everything happens the same way it did” in NY-20, with each party picking its candidates and the general election is scheduled 30-40 days from his proclamation. Paterson also has the option of scheduling the special during the fall of ’09, in which case there would be a primary and general.

There may be pressure on Paterson to wait until the fall to save the state money on a special election. However, that would mean NY-23 would go without representation for five months, which may be too long to be politically acceptable. If we do have a special, then the county chairs of the eleven counties which make up the 23rd will all have a say in who each party’s nominee is. Below is a chart of those counties, ranked by population  & including voter registration numbers (PDF):

Who might run – or get tapped? The list of potential names is getting longer. Culled from a variety of sources, so far on the GOP side we have:

• Assemb. Diedre “Dede” Scozzafava
• Assemb. Janet Duprey
• Assemb. Will Barclay
• Former state Sen. Ray Meier (who ran in NY-24 in 2006)
• Former state Sen. Jim Wright
• Businesswoman Kay Stafford
• McHugh Chief-of-Staff Robert Taub
• Franklin County DA Derek Champagne
• Essex County DA Julie Garcia
• Terry Gach, VP of a biomedical research institute
• Michael F. Joyce, owner of a yacht company

Please let it be the yacht guy. Of note, state Sen. Betty Little has already said no. As for the Dems:

• State Sen. Darrel J. Aubertine
• State Sen. David Valesky
• Assemb. Addie Jenne Russell
• Daniel J. French, a former Moynihan aide
• Michael P. Oot, the 2008 nominee
• State party Chairwoman June O’Neill
• John Rhodes, who weighed a 2008 run
• St. Lawrence County DA Nicole Duvé

Count me among those who do not want to see Dems risk our narrow-as-can-be majority in the state Senate in order to try picking up NY-23 – especially if, as some speculate, the district will be eliminated come 2012.

Whoa mama joe:

Representative John M. McHugh, a Republican congressman from New York, will be nominated by President Obama to be secretary of the Army, according to officials….

Mr. Obama formally offered the Pentagon position to the lawmaker on Monday afternoon, and his nomination is expected to be announced later on Tuesday, officials said. …

The nine-term House member, who represents a sprawling northern New York district that includes the Fort Drum Army base, is the senior Republican on the Armed Services Committee and has a solid reputation with members of both parties for his knowledge of military affairs. He also serves on the Board of Visitors for the United States Military Academy at West Point.

This is obviously huge news for open seat fans, as this R+1 district went for Obama by 52-47 last year. A resignation would prompt another special election. As you may recall from the recent NY-20 special, there is no fixed timetable for Gov. Paterson to actuall call a new election, so the date is up in the air.

As for possible candidates, Chris Cillizza gets the ball rolling:

The list of potential candidates for the McHugh opening is in its infant stages. State Sen. Darrel Aubertine, who won a special election in a district that covers much of the western half of the 23rd in February 2008, could be an attractive candidate for Democrats. Some Republican insiders have already begun to tout Robert Taub, McHugh’s chief of staff, as a potential candidate.

Politics on the Hudson offers a couple more:

On the Republican side, Assemblywoman Diedre Scozzafava was mentioned, as well as Assemblyman Will Barclay, who lost to Aubertine in the special election in 2008.

Any other names coming to mind? (More here from HC Liberal.)

Scratch one off the open seat watch, Senate version:

U.S. Sen. Tom Coburn said Monday he will seek a second and final term in 2010. …

No opponent has stepped forward to challenge Coburn, whose approval ratings consistently top 60 percent, in 2010.

Coburn said the most difficult part of his decision was “whether I could continue to sacrifice my family.” He said he will keep his 2004 pledge not to seek more than two terms in the Senate.

Even if Coburn had stepped down and Gov. Brad Henry had run, I think our odds would have been crummy. Unless I’m mistaken, Oklahoma was the only state that didn’t give a single county to Obama last year. Whatever the reasons may be, this state is just deeply hostile territory for us. The good news is that Coburn, a .45 caliber lunatic, says that a second term will be his last. It’ll be good to have him gone pretty much no matter who replaces him.

Rasmussen Reports (5/27, likely voters, mid-May in parens):

Chris Christie (R): 46 (39)

Steve Lonegan (R): 35 (29)

Undecided: 15 (29)

(MoE: ±5%)

The primary is tomorrow, June 2nd, and Chris Christie has led in every single public poll of the race:

Rasmussen has actually shown some of the closer results we’ve seen, and the trendline shows Lonegan closing a bit, but Christie still looks to be in command. The conventional wisdom says Corzine would be better off against the far-right Lonegan – the DGA went so far as to run ads bashing Christie in the hopes of bolstering Lonegan, Gray Davis/Crisitunity-style – but a win for the former Bogota, NJ mayor seems unlikely. Of course, it’s possible pollsters have badly misjudged the nature of Jersey’s likely GOP voters circa mid-2009, and indeed this same group has gone with wingers over moderates in the past (see Brett Schundler, 2001).

Either way, we’ll be here tomorrow to liveblog the results.

P.S. Daily Kos/Research 2000 polled the general and found exactly the results you’d expect.

UPDATE: A new FDU poll also shows a big Christie lead – 54-30.

Speak now or forever hold your peace.

Quinnipiac University (5/20-26, “Pennsylvania voters,” early May in parens).

Primaries:

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 50

Joe Sestak (D): 21

Undecided: 27

(MoE: ±4.1%)

Pat Toomey (R): 38

Jim Gerlach (R): 10

Peg Luksik (R): 3

Undecided: 47

(MoE: ±4.3%)

General:

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 46 (53)

Pat Toomey (R): 37 (33)

Undecided: 14 (10)

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 45

Jim Gerlach (R): 36

Undecided: 15

Joe Sestak (D): 37

Pat Toomey (R): 35

Undecided: 23

Joe Sestak (D): 36

Jim Gerlach (R): 30

Undecided: 30

(MoE: ±2.8%)

I still gag whenever I have to put a (D) after Arlen Specter’s name, and I don’t think I’m the only one. Specter’s approval margin among both Dems and independents dropped a dozen points over the last month. And the ratio of Dems willing to vote for him fell from 85-4 to 73-10. These numbers are still pretty high, though, so is there enough discontent for Joe Sestak to get in?

Interestingly, Sestak & Jim Gerlach have almost identical approvals, yet Sestak starts with a six-point lead. That points up the natural advantage Dems hold over Republicans in Pennsylvania these days.

P.S. In a move sure to anger wingnuts already steamed about the NRSC’s endorsement of Charlie Crist, Big John Cornyn said it was “premature” for the GOP to back Toomey, even though there are no other Republicans in the race (and the prospects of any getting in look slim).

Quinnipiac University (5/20-25, registered voters, late March in parens):

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 39 (34)

Rob Simmons (R): 45 (50)

Undecided: 13 (12)

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 41 (37)

Sam Caligiuri (R): 39 (41)

Undecided: 17 (17)

(MoE: ±2.5%)

Still terribly ugly, but at least the trend is in the right direction. Perhaps all the positive press Dodd got regarding his just-passed credit card legislation has been helping. Let’s just hope we don’t see any renewed feeding frenzies over Countrywide, AIG or the like.

Quinnipiac also took a look at some primary matchups:

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 44

Merick Alpert (D): 24

Undecided: 30

(MoE: 4%)

Rob Simmons (R): 48

Sam Caligiuri (R): 10

Undecided: 39

(MoE: 5%)

As Q notes, it’s pretty disturbing that a nobody like Merick Alpert – unknown to 91% of Democrats – should already be pulling a quarter of the primary vote as an “ABD” choice.

And finally, Quinnipiac asked a free-answer question about why exactly voters like and dislike Dodd:

In an open-ended question, allowing for any answer, 34 percent of voters who approve of Dodd list his experience and/or ability as the main reason.

For those who disapprove, 24 percent list Dodd’s overall dishonesty or lack of integrity, with 17 percent who cite his failure to deal with banking industry problems and 11 percent who point specifically to the Countrywide mortgage deal.

Needless to say, these aren’t easy things to overcome.

Via the Daily News:

Citing a combination of factors – from Mayor Bloomberg’s overwhelming financial advantage to his own desire to “build a family” – Rep. Anthony Weiner has officially bowed out of this year’s mayoral race via an OpEd in the New York Times.

The news comes just hours after the Queens Democrats endorsed Comptroller Bill Thompson, giving him a clean sweep of the city’s five  Democratic county committees, and in the wake of a City Hall news report that Weiner had decided not to challenge Thompson for their party’s mayoral nomination.

Thompson will have a hell of a time against Bloombo’s $80 million, but this at least means Dems can avoid a potentially divisive primary, something Weiner specifically cited as he pledged to help Thompson.

Public Policy Polling (PDF) (5/19-21, “North Carolina voters,” Shuler trendlines from January). I’ve put each of the Dem candidates’ favorables in brackets.

Elizabeth Edwards (D): 35

Richard Burr (R-inc): 46

Walter Dalton (D): 29 [24-29]

Richard Burr (R-inc): 48

Dan Blue (D): 33 [24-31]

Richard Burr (R-inc): 44

Richard Moore (D): 34 [36-25]

Richard Burr (R-inc): 47

Bob Etheridge (D): 31 [31-27]

Richard Burr (R-inc): 47

Heath Shuler (D): 28  (28) [25-25]

Richard Burr (R-inc): 44 (39)

Cal Cunningham (D): 34 [46-16] ‡

Richard Burr (R-inc): 42

(MoE: ±3.5%)

‡ Cal Cunningham is a one-term state Senator & Iraq veteran (more here). PPP tested him using a positive two-sentence bio as a lead-in, to compensate for his otherwise low name rec – hence the high favorables. A February poll without the bio showed Cunningham with a 10-23 approval rating (sort of odd, huh?), but still holding Burr to a 46-27 margin.

Here’s how Tom Jensen of PPP sums up the situation:

Pulling together all the information we have, here’s the state of the race: when Roy Cooper decided not to run Democrats lost the only candidate who would have made this an instant tossup. But Richard Burr is still in a vulnerable position pretty comparable to where Elizabeth Dole found herself at this time two years ago. But whoever the Democratic standard bearer ends up being will have to be molded into a formidable candidate, as Hagan was, rather than just inherently starting out as one.

Now Democrats are going to have to make a choice – do they get a Shuler or McIntyre who have big bank accounts and a good position from which to raise more or do they go more towards a Cunningham who might need more help raising money but can run as an outsider in an election cycle where not having any Washington taint could be a very good thing? It will be interesting to see how it all plays out.

That sounds about right to me.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (5/18-20, likely voters,  early April in parens):

Terry McAuliffe (D): 36 (19)

Brian Moran (D): 22 (24)

Creigh Deeds (D): 13 (16)

Undecided: 29 (41)

(MoE: 5%)

Public Policy Polling (PDF) (5/19-21, likely voters, early May in parens):

Terry McAuliffe (D): 29 (30)

Brian Moran (D): 20 (20)

Creigh Deeds (D): 20 (14)

Undecided: 31 (36)

(MoE: 3.9%)

Despite what you see here, PPP and R2K actually showed similar surges for McAuliffe – it’s just that PPP has polled more frequently. If you go back to their late March survey, the numbers are very similar to R2K’s. The biggest difference between the newest polls is that PPP, like SUSA, shows Deeds – who was just endorsed by the Washington Post – moving up, while R2K has him stagnating.

Even if Deeds does have positive momentum, will it be enough? The primary is just two weeks from today, and this is what all the recent polling looks like:

PPP suggests that McAuliffe is benefitting from the fact that neither Moran nor Deeds has been able to consolidate the support) of people who don’t like T-Mac (they split that group 40-35 in Moran’s favor). Time is running out for either man to break that logjam.

P.S. R2K also tested general election matchups, which you can find here.