Author: DavidNYC

It’s, well, “Shotgun” Randy Kuhl. Here he was on Wednesday:

Area students got a taste of national government as U.S. Rep. John R. “Randy” Kuhl Jr. visited Cattaraugus County Wednesday.

The 29th Congressional District Republican spoke to class of Cattaraugus-Allegany County BOCES county government students who meet weekly at the Cattaraugus County Center. …

The congressman said he had an “A” rating from the National Rifle Association and owned nine shotguns. (Emphasis added.

Just how did Shotgun Randy earn his nickname? It’s not a pleasant story:

A member of the New York State Legislature who is running for Congress pulled two shotguns on his wife at a dinner party in 1994 and threatened to shoot her, according to her divorce complaint. …

“In or about 1994, while the parties were hosting a dinner party at their home, the defendant (Kuhl) took out two shotguns and threatened to shoot plaintiff (Kuhl-Peterson),” the papers say.

Ms. Kuhl-Peterson filed for divorce in late 1998, charging that Mr. Kuhl had endangered her “mental and physical well-being and rendered it unsafe and improper for the parties to continue to reside together.” The divorce was completed in 2000 in an agreement that allowed Mr. Kuhl to keep the house and directed him to make two financial payments to his wife.

If you are known for making violent threats against women while brandishing not one but two shotguns, I’d think you’d want to shut up about how many of those things you own.

Safe D:

     VA (Open)

Races to Watch:  

     NE (Open)

     NJ (Lautenberg)

     OK (Inhofe)

     SC (Graham)

     TX (Cornyn)

Today’s Ratings Changes:

Kentucky (McConnell): Likely Republican to Lean Republican

Thanks, it seems, in large part to the ongoing financial crisis, Kentucky’s senate race has tightened dramatically in the past couple of weeks. SurveyUSA called it a three-point race and Mason-Dixon pegged the spread at just one. Meanwhile, the folks at the Rothenberg Political Report said they saw a third poll which also showed the race a dead heat.

If anger at Republicans and concerns about the economy don’t abate over the next month, GOP Minority Leader Mitch McConnell may have a serious fight on his hands. While McConnell had a massive $9 million warchest at the end of June, Dem Bruce Lunsford’s personal wealth (and his willingness to dig deep) can balance that out. Indeed, this is one race where we can stay financially competitive without the DSCC having to break the bank.

It’s hard, in other words, to see the Republicans holding as decisive an advantage as they once held in Kentucky. (Even the presidential numbers have tightened up a bit.) But this is a race that bears watching particularly closely – Rasmussen has already thrown some cold water on it, and the blue bounce may not last. Right now, though, McConnell is sweating in a way that he simply wasn’t last month, hence our decision to move this race.

Georgia (Chambliss): Likely Republican to Lean Republican

As with Kentucky, a trio of recent polls (with three-, two-, and one-point margins respectively) suggests that Georgia’s senate race is tight, almost shockingly so. Our changing views of this race, though, rest on some other, deeper data as well.

For one, SUSA says that early voters have gone for Dem Jim Martin by a 61-36 margin. At the same time, while the Obama campaign may have fallen short of its goal of registering 500,000 new black voters in Georgia, Nate Silver points out that black registration has soared nonetheless. He also notes that blacks have accounted for 40% of early voters so far, well above even his optimistic (but plausible) estimate that African Americans might compose 30% of the voting electorate in the final analysis.

Yet our newfound hope for beating the odious Saxby Chambliss is tempered by the fact that, unlike in Kentucky, the DSCC will need to get involved here to seal the deal. Georgia is a big, expensive state, and the DS already has more good targets than it can reasonably handle. Finding a few mil for the Peach State won’t be easy. At the same time, we don’t want to get gulled by those sumptuous-looking early voting numbers. Obama leads 64-35 among early voters, but that can’t be sustainable. (Again, though, Nate suggests a very close top-of-the-ticket finish in Georgia is indeed possible.)

Nevertheless, as with Kentucky, an upset has become distinctly more likely here than it was just a short while ago, and so we move this race to “Lean Republican.”

SurveyUSA just released a batch of polls undertaken on behalf of Roll Call which tested seven rematches from 2006. Three of them covered races which feature Democratic challengers who came heartbreaking close to victory last time. The news looks very, very good all around. (Full polling summary available as PDF. James’s roundup of the Dem incumbent polls is here.)

First up, IL-10 (10/04-05, likely voters, no trendlines):

Dan Seals (D): 52

Mark Kirk (R-inc): 44

Undecided: 4

(MoE: ±3.9%)

Bonus finding: Obama romps here, 62-36. Fuckin’ A.

Next, NC-08 (10/04-05, likely voters, no trendlines):

Larry Kissell (D): 49

Robin Hayes (R-inc): 41

Thomas Hill (L): 6

Undecided: 4

(MoE: ±4%)

Bonus finding: Obama 53, McCain 44. Remember, Bush won this district 54-45 in 2004.

And finally, NY-29 (10/04-05, likely voters, no trendlines):

Eric Massa (D): 51

Randy “Shotgun” Kuhl (R-inc): 44

Undecided: 5

(MoE: ±4.1%)

Bonus finding: Obama leads 49-47, and this ain’t exactly considered the heart of Obama country.

All in all, some awesome results for Team Blue. A bunch of Republican campaigns are going to have seriously miserable days tomorrow. And just think – Marky Mark “Capt.” Kirk was kvetching like little kid today about poll which showed him six points ahead. Can’t wait to see how he reacts to a survey which has him eight behind. Joy!

Awesome news: Pollster.com has re-launched its awesome House race map, which includes polling data and charts for every race which has been publicly polled.

If you know of any polls which Pollster has missed, let us know in comments and we’ll shoot an email over to our friends there once we have them all collected.

Ileana Ros-Lehtinen’s “new” ad looks like it was cobbled together from vintage footage shot in the 1980s… in Cuba:

Why is Ileana rushing a recycled ad on to the air? For one, she was completely caught off-guard by Annette Taddeo getting up on TV first, with a positive bio ad followed by a hit tying IRL to Bush. But far more embarrassing is this: Ileana just got (by her own admission) an awful new haircut. It’s so bad that apparently she won’t film new footage until it grows out. With any luck, that’ll be after Nov. 4th.

This takes “vanity campaign” to a whole ‘nother level.

Via Roll Call:

House Democratic leaders made an impassioned final plea Thursday night to get their rank and file to cough up more money for their effort to expand the party’s majority, just as Members are set to head home to hit the campaign trail a month before Election Day.

In a closed-door Democratic Caucus meeting, Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), Caucus Chairman Rahm Emanuel (Ill.) and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Chris Van Hollen (Md.) implored their colleagues to come up with the $14 million in Members’ dues needed to meet their overall $50 million goal, according to people who were present.

While we still have a cash advantage over the NRCC, the number of seats in play as we approach crunch time is so enormous that even the relatively hale DCCC needs a big money infusion to stay competitive everywhere. This is a once-in-a-generation (or perhaps lifetime) opportunity, and we need every last dime we can get. The good news is that members of our caucus still have a lot they can give:

Democratic lawmakers who are not politically in danger or in competitive races are collectively sitting on roughly $153 million in their re-election accounts, according to party tally sheets. (Emphasis added.)

Fortunately, it looks like some Dems are seriously stepping it up:

Several Members announced on the spot that they were writing checks, according to sources in the room.

Rep. Chet Edwards (Texas), who is included in the DCCC’s “Frontline” program for vulnerable incumbents even though his re-election in November seems certain, said he wouldn’t be in Congress if it weren’t for the generosity of the Caucus and announced he was giving $100,000 – news that elicited audible gasps from his peers.

Edwards sits in the reddest district held by a Democrat in the entire country – Texas’s 17th CD gave 70% of its vote to George Bush. Meanwhile, Rep. Ron Klein (FL-22) gave another $100K on top of the $100K he’s already given, and he’s only a freshman. If folks like Edwards and Klein can kick it up a notch, then almost every other member can as well. Time’s a-wastin’.

SurveyUSA (9/30-10/1, likely voters, no trendlines):

Christine Jennings (D): 33

Vern Buchanan (R-inc): 49

Jan Schneider (I): 9

Don Baldauf (I): 3

Undecided: 6

(MoE: ±4.1%)

Polling has been all over the place in FL-13 just in the past month. First good old Vern released an internal that had him up 18. Then Jennings responded with her own showing her back just four. Research 2000 neatly split the difference, calling it a twelve-point race. Neither the R2K nor Jennings polls, though, included Democrat-turned-crybaby Jan Schneider, a three-time loser who seems to be digging her loser’s share directly out of Jennings’s hide.

Vern also poaches Dems directly. He scores a strong 76-11 among members of his own party, while Jennings takes just 62-19 from Dems. And he cleans up with indies, 43-25. Jennings has an extremely tough row to hoe in this district.

The one thing that stands out is at this point old hat for SUSA: voters 18 to 34 are Vern’s best demographic, favoring him by a 57-31 split. I know the preference for Republicans among young voters in SUSA polls has struck SSPers of all stripes as odd if not completely off-base. But perhaps SUSA sees something the rest of us haven’t.

A little history lesson may be in order here. I’ve been reading Rick Perlstein’s utterly awesome Nixonland, which I can’t recommend highly enough. He recounts that when the franchise was extended to 18-to-21-year-olds before the 1972 election, Democrats were convinced that this would be of huge benefit to them. After all, young people had been on the vanguard of the civil rights and anti-Vietnam War movements and surely despised Tricky Dick. Yet Nixon managed to split the youth vote en route to a massive landslide.

Now obviously, the differences between 2008 and 1972 are too many to count, not least that many Democrats back then completely misunderstood Nixon’s appeal. But either SUSA has made a huge mistake with its likely voter screen, or they’ve correctly identified trends among younger voters this year that most other pollsters have missed. We’ll see.

Fresh off his vile, shameful attacks on Dem Sharen Neuhardt for giving shelter to a refugee of the Rwandan genocide, Republican Steve Austria’s crack finance squad sent out this blundersome plea for funds:

What a hilariously naked ask for PAC dough – it’s as though Austria is just begging the moneyed interests to let him sell out. (Evidently, the cognitive dissonance of accusing your under-funded opponent of trying to “buy the race” didn’t trouble the trog who hit “send” on this puppy.)

But the best part is the hilariously awful syntax and spelling. They’ve worked very hard to put a strong grassroots support in order! It practically reads like a Nigerian 419 scam letter. There’s only one word to describe something like this: morans.

(Great catch by bluefiftytwo.)

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (9/23-25, likely voters, no trendlines):

Annette Taddeo (D): 36

Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-inc): 53

Undecided: 10

(MoE: 5%)

Difficult numbers for Taddeo, but the only other public poll (by Bendixen & Associates) showed her 27 points back in July, so this is certainly a good bit better. As is often the case with first-time candidates who haven’t yet hit the airwaves, Taddeo is still unknown by a sizable chunk of the populace (30%), so she has room to grow. (And the good news is that she just went up on the air a few days ago, with both English and Spanish TV and radio ads.) Ros-Lehtinen, meanwhile, has only a so-so 49-37 approval rating.

The biggest question mark about this poll is the sample. It’s 62% white and 31% Hispanic. While census data is often quite different from voter turnout data, this district is just 28% Anglo (ie, non-Hispanic whites). It’s possible that some Hispanics (especially Cubans, I’m told) do indeed self-identify as white, so that might be part of the explanation.

This is actually a rather thorny issue in a district like this. A knowledgeable source tells me that a more likely turnout model would be 52% Hispanic and 40% white – and that it’s also crucial for pollsters to filter respondents on a more fine-grained level. That’s because Cuban vs. non-Cuban Hispanics have very different voting patterns in South Florida (the former are far more pro-GOP). The proper way to go about this is to ask the people you call about their (or their ancestors’) country of origin, and it’s not clear whether R2K did this.

Regardless, Hispanic and white performance in this poll was pretty similar. Annette Taddeo definitely has her work cut out for her. But remember – R2K did a poll almost exactly two years ago which showed Paul Hodes down by 25 points, so this race is definitely far from over.

SurveyUSA for Roll Call & KATU-TV (9/22-23, likely voters, 8/2-4 in parens):

Jeff Merkley (D): 44 (37)

Gordon Smith (R-inc): 42 (49)

Dave Brownlow (C): 8 (7)

Undecided: 6

(MoE: ±3.8%)

That’s a sharp drop for Smith, and it confirms all the recent polling we’ve seen here. Interestingly, both candidates have weak approvals: 31-42 for Smith and 30-35 for Merkley. But Merkley leads independents 45-36 and is benefitting from a top-of-the-ticket surge. Obama now beats McCain 52-41. (He led just 48-45 early last month.)

SSP currently rates this race Tossup.