Author: DavidNYC

The Swing State Project is changing its ratings on twelve House races:

• NY-13: Likely D to Safe D
• IL-14: Lean D to Likely D
• MS-01: Lean D to Likely D
• OR-05: Lean D to Likely D
• PA-04: Lean D to Likely D
• AL-02: Tossup to Lean R
• IN-03: Likely R to Lean R
• NE-02: Likely R to Lean R
• CA-46: Safe R to Likely R
• LA-01: Safe R to Likely R
• NC-10: Safe R to Likely R
• SC-01: Safe R to Likely R

All of these moves except for AL-02 are in favor of the Democrats. We are also adding NC-05 and MD-06 to our “Races to Watch” list. Look for our writeups to follow soon. Our full race ratings chart is available here.

SurveyUSA for Roll Call (10/13-14, likely voters, no trendlines):

Jim Himes (D): 48

Chrissy Shays (R-inc): 45

(MoE: ±4%)

Shays’s favorables: 43-32; Himes: 39-22. Shays has a small lead among independents, 46-42, but it’s not going to be enough. That’s because Obama leads McCain 59-37 in this district – in other words, Democrats are energized. (Remember, Kerry carried this district by just six points.)

This race is far from over, but I wouldn’t want to be in Shays’s shoes right now.

UPDATE: Crosstabs are available here.

You may have noticed that the Swing State Project has added a new feature – a “quick hits” section in the top right corner. We’re using this for news items which might not merit a full-length blog post but may nonetheless be interesting. You can click through on any individual story, bookmark this link to the full section, or add the quick hits as an RSS feed.

Let us know if you have any feedback. Thanks!

Looks like the DSCC is finally dipping its toes in the water in the Peach State:

Last week, Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman U.S. Sen. Chuck Schumer described Georgia and Kentucky as “even-steven races.” The committee hasn’t, however, officially added Georgia to its list of battleground states, and has been slow to pour money into the race. A spokesman said the committee did partially fund Martin’s latest television ad, which blames Chambliss for the economic turmoil.

“We think it’s a neck-and-neck race,” said DSCC spokesman Matthew Miller. “That’s why we sent money to the state party.”

The blogosphere has really stepped it up here in just the last few days. Daily Kos raised over $42K for Martin, and we’re just shy of $5,000 here at SSP. (Who wants to put us over the top?) I’m glad to see the DSCC get involved here, but with time running out, it’s time for them to seriously kick it up a notch. If we truly want to break the GOP’s spirit, this is the place to do it. It’s time to act now.

Enough talking the talk – time to walk the walk. Here’s the deal, folks: I am going to donate $500 to Jim Martin’s campaign today. The catch is that this is a match – if SSP readers pony up $500 of your own today, then you’ll get double your value, since I’ll come in on top of that with $500 from my own checkbook.

Because I have faith in you guys, we’re gonna up the goal one last time, to $4600 – the equivalent of a very generous patron giving a double-max donation to the Martin campaign. Martin undoubtedly didn’t get too many double-maxes, seeing as he didn’t get much buzz until very recently. But we can make up that gap.

Man, we’re getting close to our goal. Check it out:

Who wants to put us over $2,000?

UPDATE (James): Wow! Your generosity has been staggering. Can we hit $2,100 by dawn?

UPDATE (David): Alright, Col. Sanders – proceed to LUDICROUS SPEED! Since we blew past $2,100 in little over a day, I now declare our new goal to be $3,000. Let’s go go go!

James wrote yesterday about the shameless bullshit GOP Sen. Gordon Smith is pulling on the airwaves. Oregon’s other senator, Dem Ron Wyden, endorsed Jeff Merkley and appears in a new ad with him. Yet Smith cut his own ad which makes it appear as though Wyden is endorsing El Gordo. Like I said, a load of crap.

Fortunately, Wyden isn’t having any of this:

Wyden, however, doesn’t find much humor in the ad. He’s particularly upset that the ad includes his signature at the end, superimposed on a photo of the two senators, and he’s asking the Smith campaign to pull the ad.

“I guess we should be flattered by all the attention,” said Josh Kardon, Wyden’s chief of staff in Oregon. “But the unauthorized use of Ron’s signature is no laughing matter. Its use will confuse voters about who Ron supports in this race, and the ad should come down.”

Another embarrassment for Smith. He previously tried to claim a faux-endorsement from Obama, which lead to an unequivocal statement from the Obama camp that our nominee supports Jeff Merkley. Nice try, bub.

Six years ago, as the nascent liberal blogosphere first began to coalesce, one particular incident quickly became seared in our minds, forever to be a rallying cry – something we would never let go unanswered again. I’m speaking of Saxby Chambliss’s unthinkably odious ad in which he slurred Max Cleland by pairing the triple-amputee war hero with images of Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein:

I know you haven’t forgotten this grave offense – none of us have. That’s why I’ve put our goal thermometer right along side that ad, so that we can finally exact payback for this most outrageous and underhanded attack.

I’ll be honest: I didn’t think we’d see this day so soon. Georgia hasn’t exactly been fertile territory for Democrats in some time, and I figured Saxby would cruise to re-election. Fortunately, the political environment and the quality of our nominee have changed things dramatically. We need to seize this opportunity, to honor Max Cleland, to show that we won’t get bullied, and to send a great populist progressive like Jim Martin to the Senate.

We’ve already made awesome progress toward our goal in just twenty-four hours. But time is running very, very short. Barely more than three weeks remain until election day. Please give now.

Check this shit out. Insider Advantage (PDF) (10/9, likely voters, no trendlines):

Jim Martin (D): 45

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 45

Other: 2

Undecided: 8

(MoE: ±4.3%)

Hot damn. While Insider Advantage doesn’t make its internals and crosstabs public, this is in line with just about every other recent poll we’ve seen in this race. There is just no doubt now that this is a seriously hot contest, and a winnable seat for Dems.

Which is why I’m going to implore you once again to chip in and help out Jim Martin’s campaign. Over the years, I’ve learned a lot about the blogosphere’s fundraising capabilities. One thing that’s become clear to me is that we function best when we act as a first mover – when we jump in early, get the ball rolling, and build up some buzz. In the right cases, that excitement draws in the bigger players and special things can really happen. And I think this is one of those cases.

However, we all know that for Team Blue to have a serious shot here, Chuck Schumer and the DSCC have to get involved. But like James said, we need to put our money where our mouths are – if those of us who are clamoring to make this a marquee race don’t pony up, why should the big boys?

I should add, though, that this fundraising push is not just about momentum-building. Jim Martin is going to need every last dime he can get his hands on. $2300 won’t cover the cost of TV ads, but it can pay for vans to transport voters on election day, boxes of palm cards, pizza for the staff, you name it. In a race as tight as this, everything counts, large and small.

So please, I implore you – dig deep. I know things are scary economically right now and that this ask is probably not coming at a good time for most folks. But if we want Barack Obama to have a real shot at undoing the mess that eight years of Bush, Cheney and McCain have gotten us into, then he’s going to need progressive populist partners like Jim Martin. Let’s make it happen!

(Hat-tip: RandySF)

UPDATE: Can’t believe I forgot the bonus finding! McNap leads by just THREE points statewide (PDF), 49-46. Yes, in Georgia.

LATE UPDATE: Wow! We only began late this afternoon and we’re already at 19 contributions and $923 donated. Can we make it an even 20/$1000?

To my surprise, it looks like John Shadegg has been busy observing the Day of Atonement:

U.S. Rep. John Shadegg (R-Phoenix) has sent a letter of apology to a veteran upset over the use of his image in a Shadegg campaign ad.

“I have never supported you and I never will,” said Constantine O’Neill, a World War II veteran and former POW, at a press conference from the campaign headquarters of  Bob Lord, Shadegg’s Democratic opponent in the 3rd Congressional District. “I could never support someone who doesn’t represent my values or the values of veterans.”

O’Neill said the same in a letter to Shadegg, in which he demanded the ad be pulled and an apology be issued.

Here’s an excerpt from O’Neill’s letter (PDF):

I’m writing to you to demand that you take down your most recent TV commercial in which you use a photo of me and several other World War II POWs cropped together with a photo of you depicting that we support you.

The opposite couldn’t be more true.

At age 20, I joined the National Guard in 1939. then fought in the Army Infantry during five separate beach landings in World War II. I was captured in Italy as a war prisoner and taken to spend 22 months in a German prison camp. When they finally left me 10 fend for myself and find my American troops, at 87 lbs., I staggered my way for days and found a French hospital where I spent months recuperating.

Now I’m 89 years old and my wife Mary and I have been married for 63 years. We’ve lived through a lot. But when I saw a picture of myself in one of your ads, Mr. Shadegg, I began to cry because I was so angry.

I never have supported you and I never will – I could never support someone who doesn’t represent my values or the values of veterans. I have fought all my life but you never once have fought for me. Now you are exploiting me and my fellow POWs. You never asked my permission to use me in a photo, nor would I have given it to you.

To say this was a well-deserved laceration doesn’t begin to describe it. You know, if this were a few years ago, you almost wonder whether the GOP troglodytes would have descended into Swift Boat mode. Now it seems that they’re too scared to use such odious tactics. Good.