State of the Nation, viewed geographically

I made these maps to help us determine who’s really at advantage for redistricting and the 2012 elections. So here they are

A map showing what party is in control of the state houses

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A map showing what each party’s strengths in the state lower houses

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A map showing what each party’s strengths in the state upper houses

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A map showing what each state’s US Senate delegation looks like

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A map showing what each state’s US House delegation looks like

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A map showing what party controls the Governor’s mansions

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A map of the US House as it stands now

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Who’s up in 2011 (excuse the spelling error)

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Who’s up in 2012 (excuse the spelling error)

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By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

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First shot at the 2012 Presidential Election

With Gingrich getting very close to announcing a run and really sending the 2012 election going. I think it’s appropriate to evaluate the electoral map.

NOTE: THIS ASSUMES THE NATIONAL POLITICAL CLIMATE REMAINS CONSTANT OR CHANGES VERY LITTLE OR DETERIORATES (THE LEAST LIKELY)

I rated each state as Safe, Likely, Lean or Tossup and here’s the breakdown

Safe Obama

***only a bombshell of a scandal could cause these races to flip***

California

Illinois

Maryland

DC

Delaware

New York

Connecticut

Rhode Island

Massachusetts

Maine Overall

Maine CD 1

Maine CD 2

Hawaii

Vermont

Likely Obama

New Jersey – the presence of Chris Christie doesn’t help

Washington

Oregon

Lean Obama

***Obama is going to have to work hard to keep these states in his column***

New Mexico

Colorado

Pennsylvania

Minnesota

Toss-up

Nevada

Iowa

Michigan

Wisconsin

Ohio

Florida

North Carolina

Virginia

New Hampshire

Lean Republican

Missouri

Indiana

Likely Republican

***these states are usually safe for Republicans but some early polling reports that have been released show these races getting closer dependent on the Republican Nominee. Also these states were relatively close in 2008***

Montana

North Dakota

South Dakota

Arizona

Arkansas

Louisiana

Georgia

South Carolina

Nebraska CD 2 (Depends how nasty the Republicans get with redistricting

Safe Republican

***Dems can never win these states given the current political climate***

Alaska

Utah

Idaho

Wyoming

Nebraska Overall

Nebraska CD 1

Nebraska CD 3

Kansas

Oklahoma

Texas

Mississippi

Alabama

Tennessee

Kentucky

West Virginia

And Here’s the map:

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The Revised Wyoming Rule

After the 2010 census was released I wondered, what were the changes that would occur if the WY rule was implemented. The WY rule proposed that congressional apportionment would be decided by the state’s population divided by the pop per rep of the least populous state (Wyoming). I calculated the numbers and here they are

Arizona – 11

Alaska – 1

Alabama – 8

Arkansas- 5

California – 66

Connecticut- 6

Colorado- 8

Delaware – 1

Florida – 33

Georgia – 17

Hawaii – 1

Idaho- 2

Iowa – 5

Illinois – 22

Indiana – 11

Kansas – 5

Kentucky – 7

Louisiana – 8

Maine – 2

Massachusetts – 11

Maryland – 10

Michigan – 17

Mississippi – 5

Minnesota – 9

Missouri – 10

Montana – 1

Nebraska – 3

Nevada – 4

North Dakota – 1

North Carolina – 16

New Hampshire – 2

New Mexico – 3

New Jersey – 15

New York – 34

Ohio – 20

Oklahoma – 6

Oregon – 6

Pennsylvania – 22

Rhode Island – 2

South Carolina – 8

South Dakota – 1

Tennessee – 11

Texas – 44

Utah – 4

Vermont – 1

Virginia – 14

Washington – 11

West Virginia – 3

Wyoming – 1

Wisconsin – 10

The Changes

No Changes

AK,DE,HI,ID,ME,MT,NE,NV,NH,NM,ND,RI,SD,UT,VT,WV,WY

Gaining 1

AL,AR,CO,CT,IA,KS,KY,MN,MS,OK,OR,SC,WA

Gaining 2

AZ,IN,LA,MD,MA,MO,TN,WI

Gaining 3

GA,MI,NJ,NC,VA

Gaining 4

IL,OH,PA

Gaining 6

FL

Gaining 7

NY

Gaining 8

TX

Gaining 13

CA

House changes size +90 to 525 Representatives

Electoral Threshold changes to 319 EVs

Have fun

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

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