californianintexas – Page 5 – Swing State Project

CA-Pres: Obama vs. Kerry

Obama beat McCain 61%-37% in California, performing 7% better than Kerry in his 54%-44% win over Bush. Here are the county-by-county percentages for Kerry and Obama and the difference between those percentages. Counties that flipped from Bush to Obama are bolded.

County	Kerry	Obama	Diff	County	Kerry	Obama	Diff	County	Kerry	Obama	Diff	County	Kerry	Obama	Diff
Alameda	75.2%	78.8%	3.6%	Kings	33.8%	42.1%	8.3%	Placer	36.3%	43.4%	7.1%	Shasta	31.4%	36.0%	4.6%
Alpine	53.3%	61.0%	7.7%	Lake	53.2%	58.2%	5.0%	Plumas	36.9%	42.8%	5.9%	Sierra	33.2%	37.4%	4.2%
Amador	36.6%	41.6%	5.0%	Lassen	27.6%	31.5%	3.9%	Riverside	41.1%	50.3%	9.2%	Siskiyou	37.8%	43.3%	5.5%
Butte	44.2%	49.9%	5.7%	Los Angeles	63.2%	69.2%	6.0%	Sacramento	49.6%	58.5%	8.9%	Solano	57.2%	63.5%	6.3%
Calaveras	37.1%	42.2%	5.1%	Madera	34.8%	42.4%	7.6%	San Benito	52.7%	60.5%	7.8%	Sonoma	67.2%	73.7%	6.5%
Colusa	31.6%	40.0%	8.4%	Marin	73.3%	78.0%	4.7%	San Bernardino	43.6%	52.1%	8.5%	Stanislaus	40.4%	49.9%	9.5%
Contra Costa	62.3%	68.0%	5.7%	Mariposa	37.6%	42.5%	4.9%	San Diego	46.4%	54.2%	7.8%	Sutter	31.9%	40.8%	8.9%
Del Norte	41.4%	45.4%	4.0%	Mendocino	63.5%	69.6%	6.1%	San Francisco	83.1%	84.2%	1.1%	Tehama	32.1%	36.7%	4.6%
El Dorado	37.4%	43.7%	6.3%	Merced	42.3%	53.4%	11.1%	San Joaquin	45.9%	54.5%	8.6%	Trinity	42.8%	50.8%	8.0%
Fresno	41.7%	50.3%	8.6%	Modoc	25.8%	29.8%	4.0%	San Luis Obispo	45.6%	51.4%	5.8%	Tulare	32.9%	41.5%	8.6%
Glenn	31.7%	37.8%	6.1%	Mono	49.3%	55.6%	6.3%	San Mateo	69.5%	73.5%	4.0%	Tuolumne	38.6%	42.5%	3.9%
Humboldt	57.7%	62.3%	4.6%	Monterey	60.4%	68.2%	7.8%	Santa Barbara	53.2%	60.4%	7.2%	Ventura	47.6%	55.3%	7.7%
Imperial	52.5%	62.3%	9.8%	Napa	59.5%	65.2%	5.7%	Santa Clara	64.0%	69.5%	5.5%	Yolo	59.4%	67.1%	7.7%
Inyo	38.9%	43.9%	5.0%	Nevada	45.0%	51.5%	6.5%	Santa Cruz	73.0%	77.5%	4.5%	Yuba	31.6%	41.5%	9.9%
Kern	32.6%	40.2%	7.6%	Orange	39.0%	47.7%	8.7%

As you can see, a lot of the counties that showed the most improvement from 2004, including a lot of those that flipped, are in the areas of the state that experienced the fastest growth this decade. This is good news for us heading into the 2010 elections, because a lot of congressional and state legislative seats in these areas are ripe for the picking. This is also good news for redistricting, as the rapid growth of Democratic numbers gives the Democrats more room overall and allows for further gains by them.

You can also see that the counties in the multi-county Democratic stronghold of the Bay Area showed smaller Democratic growth numbers. This does not exactly mean that the region is trending Republican; rather, it has just pretty much maxed out its Democratic numbers. So just relying on our old strongholds in the Bay Area and L.A. County only takes us so far, and I am pleased to see the improvements in the fast-growing counties, which allow us to expand our playing field greatly.

Check below the flip for the juicy details on the numbers by districts.

The districts are colored by the party of their current occupants. Republican-held districts that voted for Obama are bolded.

Congressional District

District	Kerry	Obama	Diff	District	Kerry	Obama	Diff	District	Kerry	Obama	Diff	District	Kerry	Obama	Diff
CA-01	59.7%	65.6%	5.9%	CA-15	62.9%	68.4%	5.5%	CA-28	71.0%	76.2%	5.2%	CA-41	36.9%	43.7%	6.8%
CA-02	36.6%	42.7%	6.1%	CA-16	63.4%	69.6%	6.2%	CA-29	61.2%	67.6%	6.4%	CA-42	36.9%	44.9%	8.1%
CA-03	40.8%	49.2%	8.4%	CA-17	65.6%	72.1%	6.5%	CA-30	66.1%	70.4%	4.3%	CA-43	58.1%	68.0%	9.9%
CA-04	37.4%	43.9%	6.5%	CA-18	49.3%	59.2%	9.9%	CA-31	76.9%	79.9%	3.0%	CA-44	39.9%	49.5%	9.6%
CA-05	61.1%	69.5%	8.4%	CA-19	37.9%	46.0%	8.1%	CA-32	62.3%	68.2%	5.9%	CA-45	43.1%	51.5%	8.4%
CA-06	70.3%	76.0%	5.7%	CA-20	50.6%	59.6%	9.0%	CA-33	82.8%	86.8%	4.0%	CA-46	41.6%	47.9%	6.3%
CA-07	67.1%	71.7%	4.6%	CA-21	33.7%	42.1%	8.4%	CA-34	68.8%	74.7%	5.9%	CA-47	48.6%	60.1%	11.5%
CA-08	84.2%	85.4%	1.2%	CA-22	31.0%	38.3%	7.3%	CA-35	79.0%	84.4%	5.4%	CA-48	40.4%	49.3%	8.9%
CA-09	85.9%	88.1%	2.2%	CA-23	58.3%	65.5%	7.2%	CA-36	59.0%	64.4%	5.4%	CA-49	36.5%	45.1%	8.6%
CA-10	58.5%	64.9%	6.4%	CA-24	43.1%	50.5%	7.4%	CA-37	73.5%	79.6%	6.1%	CA-50	43.9%	51.3%	7.4%
CA-11	45.3%	53.8%	8.5%	CA-25	39.9%	49.4%	9.5%	CA-38	65.3%	71.3%	6.0%	CA-51	53.4%	63.1%	9.7%
CA-12	71.5%	74.3%	2.8%	CA-26	43.7%	51.0%	7.3%	CA-39	58.5%	65.5%	7.0%	CA-52	37.7%	45.0%	7.3%
CA-13	70.9%	74.4%	3.5%	CA-27	59.3%	66.1%	6.8%	CA-40	38.4%	46.6%	8.2%	CA-53	61.2%	68.2%	7.0%
CA-14	68.3%	73.0%	4.7%

Board of Equalization

District	Kerry	Obama	Diff
BOE-1	67.2%	72.1%	4.9%
BOE-2	42.7%	50.9%	8.2%
BOE-3	42.4%	50.6%	8.2%
BOE-4	65.6%	71.5%	5.9%

State Senate

County	Kerry	Obama	Diff	County	Kerry	Obama	Diff	County	Kerry	Obama	Diff	County	Kerry	Obama	Diff
SD-01	38.6%	45.8%	7.2%	SD-11	68.3%	73.3%	5.0%	SD-21	63.2%	69.2%	6.0%	SD-31	41.6%	49.7%	8.1%
SD-02	63.3%	68.7%	5.4%	SD-12	47.7%	57.9%	10.2%	SD-22	74.1%	78.3%	4.2%	SD-32	58.9%	68.4%	9.5%
SD-03	77.8%	81.6%	3.8%	SD-13	67.4%	72.2%	4.8%	SD-23	65.0%	70.0%	5.0%	SD-33	36.3%	45.2%	8.9%
SD-04	36.9%	43.0%	6.1%	SD-14	34.8%	42.5%	7.7%	SD-24	64.4%	69.6%	5.2%	SD-34	46.6%	57.3%	10.7%
SD-05	53.7%	62.3%	8.6%	SD-15	52.5%	59.1%	6.6%	SD-25	72.3%	78.7%	6.4%	SD-35	40.3%	47.9%	7.6%
SD-06	55.6%	64.3%	8.7%	SD-16	49.5%	58.9%	9.4%	SD-26	81.6%	85.8%	4.2%	SD-36	34.5%	42.1%	7.6%
SD-07	60.9%	66.7%	5.8%	SD-17	39.9%	48.7%	8.8%	SD-27	59.5%	66.1%	6.6%	SD-37	41.2%	50.3%	9.1%
SD-08	73.9%	75.8%	1.9%	SD-18	30.2%	37.5%	7.3%	SD-28	61.6%	67.2%	5.6%	SD-38	40.3%	48.3%	8.0%
SD-09	81.1%	84.0%	2.9%	SD-19	48.4%	55.6%	7.2%	SD-29	41.8%	48.9%	7.1%	SD-39	57.6%	64.8%	7.2%
SD-10	67.3%	71.4%	4.1%	SD-20	65.4%	72.5%	7.1%	SD-30	62.3%	68.7%	6.4%	SD-40	52.9%	62.1%	9.2%

State Assembly

County	Kerry	Obama	Diff	County	Kerry	Obama	Diff	County	Kerry	Obama	Diff	County	Kerry	Obama	Diff
AD-01	60.1%	65.5%	5.4%	AD-21	66.6%	72.0%	5.4%	AD-41	62.3%	67.8%	5.5%	AD-61	54.4%	63.2%	8.8%
AD-02	32.3%	38.0%	5.7%	AD-22	67.3%	72.1%	4.8%	AD-42	72.0%	75.5%	3.5%	AD-62	61.8%	71.3%	9.5%
AD-03	41.8%	48.0%	6.2%	AD-23	66.2%	71.5%	5.3%	AD-43	63.9%	70.3%	6.4%	AD-63	42.6%	51.1%	8.5%
AD-04	38.1%	45.2%	7.1%	AD-24	62.1%	68.0%	5.9%	AD-44	60.8%	67.2%	6.4%	AD-64	41.2%	50.0%	8.8%
AD-05	42.3%	51.1%	8.8%	AD-25	38.0%	44.9%	6.9%	AD-45	78.5%	80.6%	2.1%	AD-65	39.0%	47.0%	8.0%
AD-06	71.0%	76.2%	5.2%	AD-26	41.8%	50.7%	8.9%	AD-46	80.6%	83.9%	3.3%	AD-66	34.4%	43.7%	9.3%
AD-07	65.1%	70.7%	5.6%	AD-27	66.7%	71.8%	5.1%	AD-47	80.7%	85.3%	4.6%	AD-67	39.6%	46.1%	6.5%
AD-08	55.6%	63.3%	7.7%	AD-28	59.8%	68.3%	8.5%	AD-48	86.0%	89.1%	3.1%	AD-68	38.4%	47.4%	9.0%
AD-09	66.0%	73.4%	7.4%	AD-29	36.3%	44.4%	8.1%	AD-49	61.2%	65.3%	4.1%	AD-69	52.7%	64.4%	11.7%
AD-10	42.5%	51.1%	8.6%	AD-30	42.2%	51.1%	8.9%	AD-50	70.6%	76.9%	6.3%	AD-70	42.0%	50.9%	8.9%
AD-11	64.3%	69.7%	5.4%	AD-31	52.8%	62.2%	9.4%	AD-51	75.5%	81.4%	5.9%	AD-71	34.4%	44.6%	10.2%
AD-12	79.1%	79.0%	-0.1%	AD-32	28.7%	35.8%	7.1%	AD-52	86.1%	90.8%	4.7%	AD-72	38.3%	47.3%	9.0%
AD-13	85.6%	87.5%	1.9%	AD-33	43.1%	49.5%	6.4%	AD-53	56.9%	62.4%	5.5%	AD-73	38.5%	46.5%	8.0%
AD-14	80.6%	83.8%	3.2%	AD-34	32.6%	40.6%	8.0%	AD-54	56.6%	61.9%	5.3%	AD-74	42.4%	50.2%	7.8%
AD-15	49.6%	57.6%	8.0%	AD-35	59.7%	66.9%	7.2%	AD-55	63.0%	69.4%	6.4%	AD-75	43.2%	51.3%	8.1%
AD-16	85.6%	87.9%	2.3%	AD-36	38.4%	49.3%	10.9%	AD-56	55.1%	62.1%	7.0%	AD-76	59.6%	66.2%	6.6%
AD-17	49.7%	59.5%	9.8%	AD-37	43.8%	51.0%	7.2%	AD-57	58.8%	66.2%	7.4%	AD-77	35.8%	42.7%	6.9%
AD-18	69.7%	73.8%	4.1%	AD-38	43.6%	51.4%	7.8%	AD-58	60.8%	66.4%	5.6%	AD-78	51.2%	60.2%	9.0%
AD-19	69.3%	72.9%	3.6%	AD-39	69.9%	76.4%	6.5%	AD-59	39.6%	46.6%	7.0%	AD-79	56.0%	65.0%	9.0%
AD-20	65.9%	70.3%	4.4%	AD-40	60.3%	66.9%	6.6%	AD-60	38.4%	45.8%	7.4%	AD-80	51.6%	59.6%	8.0%

U.S. House Results by Congressional District

CQ has finally released the presidential results in each House district!

http://innovation.cq.com/atlas…

Redistricting California

Competitive Congressional Districts in California

CA-03 (Sacto suburbs; Obama 49%):

CA-04 (Northeast/Tahoe; Obama 44%):

CA-11 (Suburbs east of Bay Area; Obama 54%):

CA-24 (Ventura County; Obama 51%):

CA-25 (High Desert/Big Empty; Obama 50%):

CA-26 (Northeastern L.A. suburbs; Obama 51%):

CA-44 (Riverside City/southern OC; Obama 50%):

CA-45 (most of Riverside County; Obama 52%):

CA-46 (NW OC/Palos Verdes; Obama 48%):

CA-48 (Irvine/Laguna Beach; Obama 49%):

CA-50 (Northern S.D. suburbs; Obama 51%):

Outlook for the California State Legislature in 2010 – March 2009 edition

With the release of the new registration numbers, I now have updates for the open and/or competitive State Senate and State Assembly districts. With the district results that I found (Senate here and Assembly here), I put in a new column, showing the margin of the 2008 presidential winner in each district, so we can clearly see what our biggest targets are.

Our current numbers in the Senate are 25 Democrats/15 Republicans, with winning 2 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3; and in the Assembly 51 Democrats/29 Republicans, with winning 3 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3.

Cross-posted at Calitics and Democracy for California.

SENATE

Republicans (4)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin	2008 Result
SD-04	Sam Aanestad	33.07%	44.12%	R+11.05	M+12.80
SD-12	Jeff Denham	47.46%	33.14%	D+14.32	O+17.64
SD-18	Roy Ashburn	31.93%	47.63%	R+15.70	M+15.00
SD-36	Dennis Hollingsworth	28.96%	46.07%	R+17.11	M+14.16

Democrats (5)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin	2008 Result
SD-16	Dean Florez	49.67%	33.14%	D+16.53	O+21.35
SD-22	Gilbert Cedillo	58.98%	14.77%	D+44.21	O+58.53
SD-24	Gloria Romero	53.62%	21.16%	D+32.46	O+41.34
SD-34	Lou Correa	42.68%	34.05%	D+8.63	O+16.81
SD-40	Denise Ducheny	46.50%	29.66%	D+15.84	O+26.64

Assembly numbers are over the flip…

ASSEMBLY

Republicans (16)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin	2008 Result
AD-03	Dan Logue	34.83%	40.20%	R+5.37	M+1.60
AD-05	Roger Niello	37.94%	38.83%	R+0.89	O+4.24
AD-25	Tom Berryhill	36.84%	42.32%	R+5.48	M+7.90
AD-26	Bill Berryhill	42.03%	39.27%	D+2.76	O+4.11
AD-30	Danny Gilmore	46.45%	36.56%	D+9.89	O+4.39
AD-33	Sam Blakeslee	35.86%	40.69%	R+4.83	O+1.39
AD-36	Steve Knight	39.55%	38.72%	D+0.83	O+0.66
AD-37	Audra Strickland	35.84%	41.46%	R+5.62	O+3.73
AD-38	Cameron Smyth	36.84%	40.05%	R+3.21	O+4.86
AD-63	Bill Emmerson	37.85%	40.44%	R+2.59	O+4.09
AD-64	Brian Nestande	36.26%	41.61%	R+5.35	O+1.79
AD-65	Paul Cook	37.14%	41.06%	R+3.92	M+4.12
AD-68	Van Tran	32.72%	41.61%	R+8.89	M+2.95
AD-70	Chuck DeVore	30.12%	43.73%	R+13.61	O+3.93
AD-74	Martin Garrick	30.88%	41.62%	R+10.74	O+2.16
AD-75	Nathan Fletcher	30.74%	39.81%	R+9.07	O+4.05

Democrats (15)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin	2008 Result
AD-07	Noreen Evans	52.84%	23.73%	D+29.11	O+43.31
AD-09	Dave Jones	56.63%	18.74%	D+37.89	O+49.15
AD-10	Alyson Huber	39.32%	39.43%	R+0.11	O+3.91
AD-11	Tom Torlakson	54.24%	22.10%	D+32.14	O+40.90
AD-15	Joan Buchanan	40.59%	36.14%	D+4.45	O+16.55
AD-20	Alberto Torrico	48.62%	20.19%	D+18.43	O+42.28
AD-21	Ira Ruskin	47.13%	26.81%	D+20.32	O+45.90
AD-23	Joe Coto	51.36%	18.97%	D+32.39	O+44.45
AD-31	Juan Arambula	49.04%	33.92%	D+15.12	O+24.81
AD-35	Pedro Nava	48.21%	27.95%	D+20.26	O+35.46
AD-47	Karen Bass	64.95%	11.28%	D+53.67	O+71.90
AD-50	Hector De La Torre	61.91%	16.23%	D+45.68	O+55.86
AD-76	Lori Saldaña	41.92%	26.76%	D+15.16	O+34.34
AD-78	Martin Block	43.01%	31.51%	D+11.50	O+11.82
AD-80	Manuel Perez	45.25%	36.62%	D+8.63	O+20.68

In the Senate, our obvious plan of action is to win the 12th and possibly the 4th if we have a strong candidate, and hold the 34th. In the Assembly, we have a lot of offense opportunities and of course, we will need to defend our 4 freshmen in vulnerable districts (Huber especially, Buchanan, Block, Perez). As for the potentially vulnerable Republican districts we should target, we should prioritize them like this:

(I) Open seats in Obama districts: 5, 33, 37, 63, 70

(II) Incumbents in Obama districts: 26, 30, 36, 38, 64, 74, 75

(III) Incumbents in McCain districts with small (<6%) registration edge: 3, 65 (There are no open seats in these districts.)

(IV) Other open seats: 25, 68

CA-32: Hilda Solis Confirmed as Labor Secretary

Congresswoman Hilda Solis (D-CA) is now officially Labor Secretary Hilda Solis, and that now opens up CA-32.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/…

Representative Hilda Solis, the daughter of two union members, was confirmed by a Senate vote today as the nation’s 25th labor secretary.

The nomination was approved with bipartisan support after Republicans ended efforts to delay a vote over questions about her ties to union groups and tax liens on her husband’s business. The vote was 80-17.

List of confirmed/possible candidates

Board of Equalization Chair Judy Chu (http://www.judychu.net)

State Senator Gil Cedillo (http://www.gilcedillo.com)

Emanuel Pleitez (http://www.pleitezforuscongress.com)

State Senator Ron Calderon

State Assemblyman Charles Calderon

Water District Director/Ex-State Assemblyman Ed Chavez

State Assemblyman Ed Hernandez

Baldwin Park U.S.D. President Blanca Rubio

Here’s some political and demographic info on CA-32:

2008 Presidential Vote:

Obama (D) 68.2%

McCain (R) 29.8%

Others 2.0%

2008 House Election Results:

Solis (D) (unopposed)

Voter Registration:

Democratic: 126,111 (52.0%)

Republican: 55,373 (22.8%)

Decline-to-State: 51,474 (21.2%)

Other: 9,621 (4.0%)

Ethnicity (2000):

62.3% Hispanic

18.4% Asian

14.8% White

2.6% Black

0.3% Native American

0.1% other

A Side-by-Side Comparison of the Democratic and Republican members of Congress.

I was curious about the stats of the Congressional Ds and Rs, so I compiled this list of demographic statistics of the House, with the Senate thrown in also, using gender, race/ethnicity, and religion as well as the 3 openly gay members of the House. I got as much information as I could from Google and Wikipedia.

House Democrats

Female (57) – Tammy Baldwin, Melissa Bean, Shelley Berkley, Corrine Brown, Lois Capps, Kathy Castor, Yvette Clarke, Kathy Dahlkemper, Susan Davis, Diana DeGette, Rosa DeLauro, Donna Edwards, Anna Eshoo, Marcia Fudge, Gabrielle Giffords, Debbie Halvorson, Jane Harman, Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, Mazie Hirono, Sheila Jackson-Lee, Eddie Bernice Johnson, Marcy Kaptur, Carolyn Kilpatrick, Mary Jo Kilroy, Ann Kirkpatrick, Suzanne Kosmas, Barbara Lee, Zoe Lofgren, Nita Lowey, Carolyn Maloney, Carolyn McCarthy, Betsy Markey, Doris Matsui, Betty McCollum, Gwen Moore, Grace Napolitano, Nancy Pelosi, Chellie Pingree, Laura Richardson, Lucille Roybal-Allard, Linda Sanchez, Loretta Sanchez, Jan Schakowsky, Allyson Schwartz, Carole Shea-Porter, Louise McIntosh Slaughter, Hilda Solis (until she is confirmed as Labor Secretary), Jackie Speier, Betty Sutton, Ellen Tauscher, Dina Titus, Niki Tsongas, Nydia Velazquez, Debbie Wasserman-Schultz, Maxine Waters, Diane Watson, Lynn Woolsey

Black (38) – Sanford Bishop, Corrine Brown, G.K. Butterfield, Andre Carson, Yvette Clarke, William Lacy Clay Jr., Emanuel Cleaver, Jim Clyburn, John Conyers, Elijah Cummings, Artur Davis, Danny Davis, Donna Edwards, Keith Ellison, Chaka Fattah, Marcia Fudge, Al Green, Alcee Hastings, Jesse Jackson Jr., Sheila Jackson-Lee, Eddie Bernice Johnson, Hank Johnson, Carolyn Kilpatrick, Barbara Lee, John Lewis, Kendrick Meek, Gregory Meeks, Gwen Moore, Don Payne, Charles Rangel, Laura Richardson, Bobby Rush, David Scott, Bennie Thompson, Ed Towns, Maxine Waters, Diane Watson, Mel Watt

Hispanic (21) – Joe Baca, Xavier Becerra, Henry Cuellar, Charlie Gonzalez, Raul Grijalva, Luis Gutierrez, Ruben Hinojosa, Ben Ray Luján, Grace Napolitano, Solomon Ortiz, Ed Pastor, Silvestre Reyes, Ciro Rodriguez, Lucille Roybal-Allard, John Salazar, Linda Sanchez, Loretta Sanchez, Jose Serrano, Albio Sires, Hilda Solis (until she is confirmed as Labor Secretary), Nydia Velazquez

Asian (4) – Mazie Hirono, Mike Honda, Doris Matsui, David Wu

Mixed (1) – Robert Scott (Black-Filipino)

Total Non-White (64)

Jewish (30) – Gary Ackerman, John Adler, Shelley Berkley, Howard Berman, Steve Cohen, Susan Davis, Eliot Engel, Barney Frank, Bob Filner, Gabrielle Giffords, Alan Grayson, Jane Harman, Paul Hodes, Steve Israel, Steve Kagen, Ron Klein, Sander Levin, Nita Lowey, Jared Polis, Jerrold Nadler, Steve Rothman, Jan Schakowsky, Adam Schiff, Allyson Schwartz, Brad Sherman, Debbie Wasserman-Schultz, Henry Waxman, Anthony Weiner, Robert Wexler, John Yarmuth

Muslim (2) – Andre Carson, Keith Ellison

Buddhist (2) – Mazie Hirono, Hank Johnson

Unitarian (1) – Walter Minnick

Atheist (1) – Pete Stark

Total Non-Christian (36)

Mormon (2): Leonard Boswell (RLDS), Jim Matheson (LDS)

Openly gay (3): Tammy Baldwin, Barney Frank, Jared Polis

House Republicans

Female (17) – Michele Bachmann, Judy Biggert, Marsha Blackburn, Mary Bono Mack, Ginny Brown-Waite, Shelley Capito, Jo Ann Emerson, Mary Fallin, Virginia Foxx, Kay Granger, Lynn Jenkins, Cynthia Lummis, Cathy McMorris Rodgers, Candice Miller, Sue Myrick, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, Jean Schmidt

Hispanic (4) – Lincoln Diaz-Balart, Mario Diaz-Balart, Trent Franks, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen

Asian (2) – Steve Austria, Joseph Cao

Native American (1) – Tom Cole

Total Non-White (7)

Jewish (1) – Eric Cantor

Total Non-Christian (1)

Mormon (7): Rob Bishop, Jason Chaffetz, Jeff Flake, Dean Heller, Wally Herger, Buck McKeon, Mike Simpson

Christian Scientist (3): David Dreier, Bob Goodlatte, Lamar Smith

Senate Democrats

Female (13): Barbara Boxer, Maria Cantwell, Dianne Feinstein, Kirsten Gillibrand, Kay Hagan, Amy Klobuchar, Mary Landrieu, Blanche Lincoln, Claire McCaskill, Barbara Mikulski, Patty Murray, Jeanne Shaheen, Debbie Stabenow

Black (1): Roland Burris

Hispanic (1): Robert Menendez

Asian (1): Daniel Inouye

Mixed (1): Daniel Akaka (Chinese-Hawaiian)

Total Non-White (4)

Jewish (13): Michael Bennet, Barbara Boxer, Ben Cardin, Russ Feingold, Dianne Feinstein, Al Franken*, Herb Kohl, Frank Lautenberg, Carl Levin, Joe Lieberman, Bernie Sanders, Chuck Schumer, Ron Wyden

Unitarian Universalist (1): Kent Conrad

Total Non-Christian (14)

Mormon (2): Harry Reid, Tom Udall

Senate Republicans

Female (4): Susan Collins, Kay Bailey Hutchison, Lisa Murkowski, Olympia Snowe

Hispanic (1): Mel Martinez

Jewish (1): Arlen Specter

Mormon (3): Robert Bennett, Mike Crapo, Orrin Hatch

Now that I have the raw numbers, I can calculate the percentages of each party in each house that are non-white and non-Christian.

House Democrats

Percent female: 57/257 = 22.2%

Percent non-white: 64/257 = 24.9%

Percent non-Christian: 36/257 = 14.0%

House Republicans

Percent female: 17/178 = 9.6%

Percent non-white: 7/178 = 3.9%

Percent non-Christian: 1/178 = 0.6%

Senate Democrats

Percent female: 13/59 = 22.0%

Percent non-white: 4/59 = 6.8%

Percent non-Christian (if Franken is seated): 14/59 = 23.7%

Senate Republicans

Percent female: 4/41 = 9.8%

Percent non-white: 1/41 = 2.4%

Percent non-Christian: 1/41 = 2.4%

And now, combining the Senate and House:

Democrats

Percent female: 70/316 = 22.2%

Percent non-white: 68/316 = 21.5%

Percent non-Christian: 50/316 = 15.8%

Republicans

Percent female: 21/219 = 9.6%

Percent non-white: 8/219 = 3.7%

Percent non-Christian: 2/219 = 0.9%

Just for fun, let’s compare these numbers to the U.S. at large. I know these numbers are not perfect because some races/religions are much better represented than others as we discussed earlier.

U.S. as a whole ( https://www.cia.gov/library/pu… )

Percent female: 50.8%

Percent non-white: 35.1%

Percent non-Christian: 21.5%

Can you guess which party better represents America?

Swing State Project PVI

Here it is, the list of districts with their SSP PVI’s, from 2004! It’s a work in progress, but I should have the numbers finished tonight.

http://spreadsheets.google.com…

Analysis of California 2008

Cross-posted at Calitics.

Here is my analysis of the 2008 election in my home state of California. As I mentioned in my 50-state analysis, California was a mixed bag on November 4, 2008. The presidential results were anything but disappointing, while we came up short further down the ballot, from the House races to the state legislature and the 12 ballot measures.

I was amazed as I saw polls leading up to Election Day showing Obama up by more than 20 over McCain, and was astonished at the 61-37 Obama blowout that ended up occurring on Election Night (and the calling of the whole Left Coast for Obama, putting him over 270 electoral votes and making him the winner!). I couldn’t wait to check out the county results and see which ones flipped for Obama and which ones were close.

As the final absentee ballots rolled in, I was able to check out the numbers, and see that Obama way outperformed Kerry, winning by 3 million votes and pumping up his national popular vote numbers very nicely. In fact, Obama outperformed every single Democratic presidential candidate except one, scoring the second-best Democratic presidential performance in California’s history after Franklin Roosevelt in 1936. As you can see, Obama gained 1.5 million votes over Kerry, while McCain, who claimed he could compete in California, lost half a million votes from Bush.

2008: Obama 8,274,473; McCain 5,011,781

2004: Kerry 6,745,485; Bush 5,509,826

Looking through the voting histories of the California counties that went to Obama, I found that Obama broke some longtime Republican streaks in quite a few counties. Obama won a majority of the vote in two counties that last voted Democratic presidentially with more than 50% of the vote in 1976, Merced and Trinity.

Most significant are the six counties that in 2008 voted Democratic presidentially with more than 50% for the first time since 1964: Nevada, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Joaquin, San Luis Obispo, Ventura

And finally, San Diego County, which last voted for a Democratic presidential candidate with a majority of the vote in 1944, also delivered a majority of the vote to Obama!

Obama also came close to winning majorities, instead winning close pluralities, in Butte, Fresno, and Stanislaus Counties. The last Democrat to win a majority in Butte and Fresno was Lyndon Johnson in 1964, and the last Democrat to win a majority in Stanislaus was Jimmy Carter in 1976.

Now I will do a tour of the state, north to south. I will give a bit of an overall summary of California’s counties: Obama improved upon Kerry’s performance in all 58 of them. The amount of improvement varies from region to region, and the numbers are over the flip.

North Coast

Counties = Del Norte, Humboldt, Mendocino, Lake, Sonoma

Combined population = 800,932

2004 = Kerry 63%, Bush 34% (D+29)

2008 = Obama 69%, McCain 28% (D+41)

Obama improved considerably over Kerry’s margins in this part of the state, growing Democratic margins in Humboldt, Mendocino, Lake, and Sonoma, while cutting McCain’s margin in Del Norte County to half of Bush’s. These growing Democratic numbers in this formerly swingy region (CA-01 changed parties 4 times in the 1990s alone) suggests this region will continue to trend Democratic for the foreseeable future.

Northern Mountain

Counties = Butte, El Dorado, Lassen, Modoc, Nevada, Placer, Plumas, Shasta, Sierra, Siskiyou, Tehama, Trinity

Combined population = 1,205,952

2004 = Bush 61%, Kerry 38% (R+23)

2008 = McCain 54%, Obama 44% (R+10)

Our next stop is this sprawling, low-density region. I figured McCain would crush Obama in this small town-heavy region, even overperforming Bush’s numbers. When I examined the counties in this region, all of which went for Bush in 2004, I was shocked. Not only did McCain underperform Bush here, he actually got FEWER votes than Bush did. Obama even won 3 counties outright: Butte, Nevada, and Trinity. This region will likely continue to be considerably Republican, but Democrats can become more competitive here if they grow their margins in Butte County (home of UC Chico) and the Tahoe region. Some of this area, most notably Placer, is becoming more like suburban Sacramento and may also continue to trend Democratic. These numbers show that we can win here, and if we can find more Charlie Browns, we might be able to pull off wins in this region, namely Congressional District 4 (which will very likely be open in 2010 when McClintock runs for governor) and Senate District 4 (which will be open in 2010 due to term limits). A couple of Assembly seats here will be open in 2010 as well. Let’s jump-start that 58-county strategy!

San Francisco Bay Area

Counties = Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano

Combined population = 6,791,908

2004 = Kerry 69%, Bush 29% (D+40)

2008 = Obama 74%, McCain 24% (D+50)

A very blue region in a very blue state just keeps on getting bluer with each election. Republicans will be extremely lucky if they can get even a third of the vote here again! In addition to overwhelming Democratic numbers, every single Congressional, State Senate, and State Assembly district is in Democratic hands, almost parallel to the shutout Republicans suffered on the House level in New England. Only if the Republicans return to being the party of Earl Warren and Hiram Johnson will they have a prayer of winning here again. The funny thing is that this region used to be a very Republican region in a very Republican state back in the early 20th century, and San Mateo County was the origin of powerful Republican governor Hiram Johnson and the Progressive movement in California, which Republicans of that time embraced. The region shifted strongly to the Democrats in the 1950s, with 1956 being the last time San Francisco and Alameda Counties voted Republican presidentially, and has not looked back since.

Sacramento Valley

Counties = Amador, Calaveras, Colusa, Glenn, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Sutter, Yolo, Yuba

Combined population = 2,606,646

2004 = Bush 51%, Kerry 48% (R+3)

2008 = Obama 56%, McCain 42% (D+14)

This is a swing area, with Democratic strongholds in the city of Sacramento and Yolo County, home of UC Davis, and Republican strongholds in the Sacramento suburbs (though their majorities here are getting smaller and smaller by the year), and Amador, Calaveras, Colusa, Glenn, Sutter, and Yuba Counties. San Joaquin County, the second-biggest county in the region, has been a Republican-leaning county in recent history until the influx of people from the Bay Area and the overall Democratic trend of suburbs near the Bay Area, culminating in a double-digit win for Obama in the county and the region. This region is also trending Democratic on the congressional and state legislature level, giving victories to Democratic Congressman Jerry McNerney, and Democratic Assemblywomen Alyson Huber and Joan Buchanan.

Eastern Mountain/Yosemite

Counties = Alpine, Inyo, Mariposa, Mono, Tuolumne

Combined population = 108,338

2004 = Bush 58%, Kerry 40% (R+18)

2008 = McCain 53%, Obama 44% (R+9)

Like the northern mountain region, McCain got fewer votes here than Bush did and Democrats saw a modest improvement from 2004 here. The 2 Democratic counties, Alpine and Mono, used to be two of the strongest Republican counties, even voting for Bush in 2000, but an influx of young people from the San Francisco area to work on the ski resorts shifted these counties to Kerry and even more for Obama. If we can get a similar trend in the other counties, then this region too may become Democratic before long.

Central Coast

Counties = Monterey, San Benito, San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, Santa Cruz, Ventura

Combined population = 2,275,917

2004 = Kerry 54%, Bush 45% (D+9)

2008 = Obama 60%, McCain 37% (D+23)

This region was normally divided in half, with the northern half of the region (Monterey, San Benito, Santa Cruz) leaning strongly Democratic and the southern half (San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, Ventura) leaning Republican aside from the Democratic stronghold of Santa Barbara. Now that barrier has been shattered, with all 6 counties (yes, including San Luis Obispo!) going for Obama. This provides us with great opportunities to expand our majority in the upcoming State Assembly elections in 2010 and the State Senate elections in 2012. You will also notice that this region is generally the bellwether region for determining how California will go in statewide/presidential elections. Not surprisingly, the bellwether county of San Benito is also in this region.

San Joaquin Valley

Counties = Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Stanislaus, Tulare

Combined population = 3,270,343

2004 = Bush 62%, Kerry 37% (R+25)

2008 = McCain 52%, Obama 46% (R+6)

Here is another Republican stronghold, though unlike the mountain regions, this one is more populous, with population centers in Fresno and Bakersfield. Every county here was Republican in 2004, and then Obama punched holes in the Republican firewall, winning Merced and Stanislaus Counties, as well as the big prize of Fresno County. We still have work to do here on the state level though, since we lost the 30th Assembly district last year. Though maybe with that Yacht Dog Nicole Parra gone and the Democratic trend here, we may have a chance to regain that district in 2010.

Southland

Counties = Imperial, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego

Combined population = 20,951,621

2004 = Kerry 52%, Bush 46% (D+5)

2008 = Obama 59%, McCain 38% (D+21)

And finally, our tour ends in the Southland, the most populous region in the state, which alone holds more than half of the state’s population in a mere 6 counties and is home to the state’s 2 largest cities, L.A. and San Diego, and the state’s 3 most populous counties (L.A., Orange, and San Diego). As recently as 2004, L.A. and Imperial Counties were the only Democratic counties in the region. Obama changed that, blowing even more holes in Republican strongholds, turning 3 more counties blue with majorities in Riverside, San Bernardino, and San Diego, and falling just two points short in Orange County, nearly staging a complete sweep in this former Republican stronghold. That spells trouble for certain Republican Congressmen/women, as well as State Senators and Assemblymembers, some of which are term-limited in 2010 and/or scored weak wins in 2008. Probably the most exciting part of California to watch in the 2010 elections will be right here in the Southland. My hometown of Rancho Cucamonga in San Bernardino County went for Obama. I can only hope it and many more cities in the region continue to trend to the good guys! If the Democrats have a lockhold on the population centers in Northern and Southern California, then there will be ZERO chance of Republicans winning this big prize again!

Whew! Now that I’ve finished the marathon tour of my big, beautiful home state, I can give the region-by-region breakdown of Democratic improvements from 2004 to 2008, ranked from the smallest shift to the largest shift. Here they are:

Eastern Mountain/Yosemite: 9%

San Francisco Bay Area: 10%

North Coast: 12%

Northern Mountain: 13%

Central Coast: 14%

Southland: 16%

Sacramento Valley: 17%

San Joaquin Valley: 19%

Every region shifted considerably more Democratic, though the biggest shifts occurred in the regions that up through 2004 were swing or Republican-leaning areas. These are the areas we need to target heavily to make the biggest gains.

With some legislative seats open in 2010 due to term limits, we can take some of them and further inflate our Democratic majority in this state. If the California Democratic Party, with the new fresh faces of Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg (D-Sacramento) and Assembly Speaker Karen Bass (D-Los Angeles) actually invests in the legislative races, we can make major gains and have no more disappointments that we had in 2008’s U.S. House and legislative races, where Democrats, especially in swing districts in Southern California, underperformed Obama. Also, with enough investment, we will hopefully also have no more disappointments in the ballot measures such as Prop H8. And a suggestion I have for reforming our dysfunctional ballot measure system is to not have any repeat ballot measures such as Prop 73 (2005)/85 (2006)/4 (2008) and also require a supermajority (say 60%) on passing some measures. And of course we need major reforms in the legislative system, such as doing away with the ridiculous 2/3 rule for taxes and budgets.

My 2008 Predictions vs. Results

Now that I have some spare time, I can compare my predictions against the actual results from the presidential, governor, Senate, and competitive House races in 2008, and show the differences between the numbers. The difference is how much more Democratic/Republican my predictions are from the actual numbers. Some of my predictions were fairly accurate, while some were way off, due to lack of polling in the noncompetitive races (and I am not including the Arkansas Senate race due to no polling at all because Pryor was unopposed), and due to the difficulty of predicting some of the races, namely most House races, the Alaska races, and some other races due to huge third-party noise. Numbers are below the flip.

President (51) http://californianintexas.blog…

Race	My Prediction	Actual Result	Difference
AL-Pres	R+21.14	R+21.58	D+0.44
AK-Pres	R+16.67	R+21.54	D+4.87
AZ-Pres	R+3.79	R+8.48	D+4.69
AR-Pres	R+7.64	R+19.85	D+12.21
CA-Pres	D+22.63	D+24.03	R+1.40
CO-Pres	D+5.82	D+8.95	R+3.13
CT-Pres	D+19.85	D+22.37	R+2.52
DE-Pres	D+22.40	D+25.00	R+2.60
DC-Pres	D+78.02	D+85.92	R+7.90
FL-Pres	D+2.15	D+2.81	R+0.66
GA-Pres	R+4.43	R+5.20	D+0.77
HI-Pres	D+29.32	D+45.26	R+15.94
ID-Pres	R+29.96	R+25.34	R+4.62
IL-Pres	D+21.18	D+25.13	R+3.95
IN-Pres	R+2.58	D+1.03	R+3.61
IA-Pres	D+12.51	D+9.53	D+2.98
KS-Pres	R+19.59	R+14.93	R+4.66
KY-Pres	R+13.93	R+16.22	D+2.29
LA-Pres	R+11.65	R+18.63	D+6.98
ME-Pres	D+14.73	D+17.32	R+2.59
MD-Pres	D+19.40	D+25.44	R+6.04
MA-Pres	D+22.79	D+25.81	R+3.02
MI-Pres	D+12.66	D+16.46	R+3.80
MN-Pres	D+11.84	D+10.24	D+1.60
MS-Pres	R+11.16	R+13.17	D+2.01
MO-Pres	R+0.50	R+0.13	R+0.37
MT-Pres	R+4.55	R+2.26	R+2.29
NE-Pres	R+22.51	R+14.93	D+7.58
NV-Pres	D+5.71	D+12.49	R+6.78
NH-Pres	D+10.20	D+9.61	D+0.59
NJ-Pres	D+16.74	D+15.54	D+1.20
NM-Pres	D+10.00	D+15.13	R+5.13
NY-Pres	D+27.10	D+26.69	D+0.41
NC-Pres	D+0.34	D+0.33	D+0.01
ND-Pres	R+10.58	R+8.60	R+1.98
OH-Pres	D+4.02	D+4.53	R+0.51
OK-Pres	R+26.31	R+31.29	D+4.98
OR-Pres	D+15.07	D+16.35	R+1.28
PA-Pres	D+7.21	D+10.32	R+3.11
RI-Pres	D+24.32	D+27.92	R+3.60
SC-Pres	R+9.62	R+8.98	R+0.64
SD-Pres	R+10.76	R+8.41	R+2.35
TN-Pres	R+11.89	R+15.07	R+3.18
TX-Pres	R+15.55	R+11.76	R+3.79
UT-Pres	R+28.78	R+28.07	R+0.71
VT-Pres	D+24.17	D+37.01	R+12.84
VA-Pres	D+4.12	D+6.30	R+2.18
WA-Pres	D+14.23	D+17.11	R+2.88
WV-Pres	R+7.67	R+13.11	D+5.44
WI-Pres	D+10.70	D+13.90	R+3.20
WY-Pres	R+26.20	R+32.24	D+6.04

Governor (11) http://californianintexas.blog…

Race	My Prediction	Actual Result	Difference
DE-Gov	D+35.00	D+35.48	R+0.48
IN-Gov	R+16.33	R+17.81	D+1.48
MO-Gov	D+15.75	D+18.91	R+3.16
MT-Gov	D+22.00	D+32.95	R+10.95
NH-Gov	D+42.33	D+42.54	R+0.21
NC-Gov	D+1.00	D+3.40	R+2.40
ND-Gov	R+40.00	R+50.91	D+10.91
UT-Gov	R+58.50	R+57.95	R+0.55
VT-Gov	R+23.00	R+31.56	D+8.56
WA-Gov	D+4.00	D+6.48	R+2.48
WV-Gov	D+46.00	D+44.04	D+1.96

Senate (36) http://californianintexas.blog…

Race	My Prediction	Actual Result	Difference
AL-Sen	R+33.00	R+26.84	R+6.16
AK-Sen	D+10.33	D+1.24	D+9.09
CO-Sen	D+10.86	D+10.30	D+0.56
DE-Sen	D+34.00	D+29.37	D+5.63
GA-Sen	R+4.86	R+2.92	R+1.94
ID-Sen	R+23.00	R+23.55	D+0.55
IL-Sen	D+28.00	D+39.31	R+11.31
IA-Sen	D+22.00	D+25.39	R+3.39
KS-Sen	R+27.00	R+23.60	R+3.40
KY-Sen	R+5.00	R+5.93	D+0.93
LA-Sen	D+10.00	D+6.39	D+3.61
ME-Sen	R+13.00	R+22.75	D+9.75
MA-Sen	D+30.50	D+34.93	R+4.43
MI-Sen	D+20.50	D+28.81	R+8.31
MN-Sen	R+1.00	D+0.01	R+1.01
MS-Sen A	R+27.00	R+22.87	R+4.13
MS-Sen B	R+9.00	R+10.00	D+1.00
MT-Sen	D+45.00	D+45.83	R+0.83
NE-Sen	R+14.00	R+17.46	D+3.46
NH-Sen	D+8.00	D+6.34	D+1.66
NJ-Sen	D+15.43	D+14.08	D+1.35
NM-Sen	D+15.50	D+22.66	R+7.16
NC-Sen	D+4.86	D+8.47	R+3.61
OK-Sen	R+18.00	R+17.50	R+0.50
OR-Sen	D+6.00	D+3.35	D+2.65
RI-Sen	D+52.00	D+46.81	D+5.19
SC-Sen	R+19.00	R+15.28	R+3.72
SD-Sen	D+25.00	D+24.98	D+0.02
TN-Sen	R+29.00	R+33.50	D+4.50
TX-Sen	R+8.00	R+11.98	D+3.98
VA-Sen	D+27.86	D+31.30	R+3.56
WV-Sen	D+21.00	D+27.43	R+6.43
WY-Sen A	R+27.00	R+51.38	D+24.38
WY-Sen B	R+25.00	R+46.99	D+21.99

House (76) http://californianintexas.blog…

Race	My Prediction	Actual Result	Difference
AL-02	D+0.7	D+0.5	D+0.2
AL-05	D+2.5	D+3.6	R+0.9
AK-AL	D+7.3	R+5.1	D+12.4
AZ-01	D+7.5	D+16.5	R+9.0
AZ-03	R+8.1	R+12.0	D+3.9
AZ-05	D+10.0	D+9.6	D+0.4
AZ-08	D+11.3	D+11.9	R+0.6
CA-03	R+12.5	R+5.5	R+7.0
CA-04	D+2.4	R+0.6	D+3.0
CA-11	D+2.4	D+10.6	R+8.2
CA-46	R+12.5	R+9.5	R+3.0
CA-50	R+10.0	R+5.1	R+4.9
CO-04	D+4.9	D+12.3	R+7.4
CT-04	D+1.7	D+4.3	R+2.6
FL-08	D+5.9	D+4.0	D+1.9
FL-13	R+12.3	R+18.0	D+5.7
FL-16	R+18.9	R+20.2	D+1.3
FL-18	R+13.3	R+15.8	D+2.5
FL-21	R+1.8	R+15.8	D+14.0
FL-24	D+13.1	D+16.1	R+3.0
FL-25	R+3.6	R+6.2	D+2.6
GA-08	D+4.2	D+14.4	R+10.2
ID-01	D+2.7	D+1.2	D+1.5
IL-10	D+2.7	R+9.0	D+11.7
IL-11	D+9.0	D+13.9	R+4.9
IL-14	D+9.1	D+14.8	R+5.7
IN-09	D+13.5	D+19.4	R+5.9
KS-02	D+4.4	R+4.4	D+8.8
KS-03	D+11.8	D+16.8	R+5.0
KY-02	R+2.8	R+5.2	D+2.4
KY-03	D+13.6	D+18.8	R+5.2
LA-04	D+2.5	R+0.4	D+2.9
LA-06	D+9.1	R+7.8	R+16.9
MD-01	R+2.0	D+0.8	R+2.8
MI-07	D+3.1	D+2.3	D+0.8
MI-09	D+2.4	D+9.5	R+7.1
MN-03	D+0.4	R+7.6	D+8.0
MN-06	D+1.9	R+3.0	D+4.9
MS-01	D+9.5	D+10.6	R+1.1
MO-06	R+13.4	R+22.5	D+9.1
MO-09	R+4.1	R+2.5	R+1.6
NE-02	R+2.9	R+3.8	D+0.9
NV-02	R+7.4	R+10.4	D+3.0
NV-03	D+1.6	D+5.1	R+3.5
NH-01	D+3.9	D+5.9	R+2.0
NJ-03	D+3.7	D+4.2	R+0.5
NJ-05	R+9.1	R+13.5	D+4.4
NJ-07	D+0.7	R+8.0	D+8.7
NM-01	D+3.9	D+11.4	R+7.5
NM-02	D+3.3	D+12.0	R+8.7
NY-13	D+10.0	D+27.6	R+17.6
NY-20	D+10.0	D+24.2	R+14.2
NY-25	D+8.8	D+12.9	R+4.1
NY-26	R+7.9	R+14.5	D+6.6
NY-29	D+4.0	D+2.0	D+2.0
NC-08	D+3.8	D+10.8	R+7.0
OH-01	D+1.0	D+3.0	R+2.0
OH-02	R+7.3	R+7.7	D+0.4
OH-15	D+5.0	D+0.7	D+4.3
OH-16	D+8.1	D+10.6	R+2.5
OR-05	D+18.3	D+15.5	D+2.8
PA-03	D+0.8	D+2.4	R+1.6
PA-04	D+11.3	D+11.8	R+0.5
PA-10	D+10.6	D+12.6	R+2.0
PA-11	R+2.4	D+3.2	R+5.6
PA-12	D+7.8	D+15.8	R+8.0
SC-01	R+7.4	R+4.0	R+3.4
TX-07	R+7.1	R+13.5	D+6.4
TX-10	R+5.8	R+10.8	D+5.0
TX-22	R+2.1	R+7.0	D+4.9
VA-02	R+7.8	D+4.9	R+12.7
VA-05	R+6.3	D+0.2	R+6.5
VA-11	D+10.0	D+11.7	R+1.7
WA-08	D+1.8	R+5.6	D+7.4
WV-02	R+10.1	R+14.2	D+4.1
WI-08	D+7.4	D+8.1	R+0.7
WY-AL	R+4.2	R+9.8	D+5.6