Redistricting California 2010

Here is my first attempt at redistricting California for 2010. I gave myself an extra challenge of keeping the representatives’ residences in their respective districts save of course McClintock, and assuming Garamendi wins CA-10.

For the demographics, I noticed that even in obviously heavy Hispanic areas, the “Hispanic” percentage was ridiculously low, while the “Other” category was more representative of the Hispanic population, so for “Hispanic” I will use the “Hispanic” and “other” numbers.

Later on I will attempt redistricting the State Senate and Assembly. I know there is a panel that will draw the state legislative districts, but I still intend to give a shot at these maps.

Cross-posted at Calitics.

OUTER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA

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CA-01: Shifted parts of Sonoma out into the 6th, and added all of Trinity and Yolo, and northern Solano. (70% White, 21% Hispanic)

CA-02: Shifted in all of Butte and the most heavily Republican counties Modoc and Lassen, and removed Yuba. (76% White, 16% Hispanic)

CA-03: Made the district more compact and possibly more Democratic by putting it entirely within Sacramento. (71% White, 15% Hispanic, 6% Asian, 5% Black)

CA-04: Shifted out the parts of Butte in the current district, as well as Modoc and Lassen, to the 2nd, and gave part of western Placer to the 5th. (83% White, 11% Hispanic)

CA-05: Expanded northward to include all of northwestern Sacto County as well as part of western Placer County. Should be slightly less Democratic but no problem for Matsui. (43% White, 25% Hispanic, 16% Asian, 13% Black)

CA-06: Shifted in more of Sonoma County to keep a North Bay-centric district. (76% White, 17% Hispanic)

SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

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CA-07: Pretty much the same as the old district, except I shifted Pittsburg out to the 10th. (45% White, 23% Hispanic, 14% Black, 14% Asian)

CA-08: Not much change here. Still San Francisco-centric. (44% White, 28% Asian, 18% Hispanic, 7% Black)

CA-09: Same as previous district, in northeastern Alameda County, only including the city of Alameda. (34% White, 25% Black, 20% Hispanic, 17% Asian)

CA-10: Here I had to do a little shifting, to shore up McNerney and include Garamendi’s residence in Sacramento County. I removed the Alameda portion, since Tauscher had wanted to keep Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories in her district, and since she is no longer in Congress, I decided to remove it so I could add some more of Alameda to shore up McNerney. I also excised some of Contra Costa, which also went to the 11th. (63% White, 19% Hispanic, 9% Asian, 7% Black)

CA-11: Does look similar to old CA-11, only with more of Contra Costa and Alameda to strengthen McNerney. Dublin, Livermore, and San Ramon should help. (59% White, 24% Hispanic, 10% Asian, 4% Black)

CA-12: Same as before, northern San Mateo County and the southwest corner of San Francisco. (47% White, 28% Asian, 20% Hispanic)

CA-13: Same as before, western Alameda County only without Alameda, which I shifted to the 9th. (38% White, 27% Asian, 26% Hispanic, 6% Black)

CA-14: Same as before, with parts of Silicon Valley and southern San Mateo and northern Santa Cruz. (60% White, 18% Hispanic, 16% Asian)

CA-15: Same as before, Silicon Valley-centric. (52% White, 24% Asian, 20% Hispanic)

CA-16: Same as before, San Jose-centric. (39% Hispanic, 28% White, 28% Asian)

CENTRAL CALIFORNIA

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CA-17: Little change. (45% White, 43% Hispanc, 5% Asian)

CA-18: Still Central Valley-centric, only with the Fresno part removed for some simplification. (44% White, 42% Hispanic, 7% Asian)

CA-19: Maintained most of the Central Valley parts of the district, and since I couldn’t find any other place to put Alpine, Amador, Calaveras, and Mono, I just threw them in here. (I moved the first 3 to make CA-03 more compact, and also shifted Mono and Inyo (which went to CA-21) to cut down on CA-25’s ridiculous geographic size. (61% White, 29% Hispanic)

CA-20: Shifted a bit more of Fresno into this one. (53% Hispanic, 31% White, 6% Asian, 6% Black)

CA-21: Shifted part of Fresno out into the 20th to make room for Inyo. (47% White, 45% Hispanic/Portuguese)

CA-22: Little change. Still Bakersfield-centric with inland San Luis Obispo and Lancaster from L.A. County. (58% White, 30% Hispanic, 7% Black)

CA-23: Did a little shifting between this and CA-24 to make the former a little less Democratic and the latter a little less Republican. I kept coastal SLO, but shifted uber-Republican inland Santa Barbara in and shifted heavily Democratic Oxnard out. (62% White, 30% Hispanic)

CA-24: Reduced Republican strength with heavily Republican inland Santa Barbara out and heavily Democratic Oxnard in. I also shifted a part of southeastern Ventura out, which I presume is Republican-leaning. This should be enough to give Gallegly a big run for his money. (54% White, 35% Hispanic, 5% Asian)

CA-25: Greatly reduced the land area by lopping off Inyo and Mono. Put in a little more of the San Fernando Valley to make up. (54% White, 29% Hispanic, 7% Black, 5% Asian)

LOS ANGELES AND ORANGE COUNTY

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CA-27: I had to stretch this district a little to take in Pasadena while also maintaining the San Fernando Valley part of the district. (45% White, 30% Hispanic, 13% Asian, 7% Black)

CA-28: I was able to maintain most of this district. It was much less Hispanic in 1982 when Berman was first elected, though when he retires a Hispanic is very likely to replace him. (61% Hispanic, 25% White, 7% Asian)

CA-29: Excised Pasadena and was able to maintain everything else including Schiff’s home in Burbank, and the Armenians in Glendale, since Schiff has been advocating for Armenians in Congress. (41% White, 30% Hispanic, 25% Asian)

CA-30: Maintained this district as West Side-centric, only removing Santa Monica and adding in part of southeast Ventura County. Should still be heavily Democratic. (74% White, 14% Hispanic, 7% Asian)

CA-31: Kept this district as the only L.A. County district completely within the city of L.A. (59% Hispanic, 19% White, 16% Asian)

CA-32: Added in the northern L.A. suburbs removed from CA-26; should still be very Democratic. (59% Hispanic, 18% Asian, 17% White)

CA-33: Kept as much of Culver City and some heavily black portions of L.A. in this district as I could. It’s plurality-Hispanic demographically, but black-plurality in voting. (42% Hispanic, 26% Black, 18% White, 11% Asian)

CA-34: Still Downtown L.A.-centric and the most Hispanic district in the state. (84% Hispanic, 8% Black)

CA-35: Made this district majority-Hispanic. A Hispanic will likely replace Waters when she retires. (54% Hispanic, 37% Black)

CA-36: Removed the Palos Verdes portion of the district and added Santa Monica to make this district more Democratic so Harman will either become less of a Blue Dog or be primaried out. (56% White, 23% Hispanic, 15% Asian)

CA-37: Shifted half of Palos Verdes into this district while removing parts of Long Beach. (41% Hispanic, 26% White, 18% Black, 12% Asian)

CA-38: With Pomona out, I was able to shorten this district considerably, though I still had to keep in stretchy to keep in Napolitano’s residence in Norwalk while keeping most of east L.A. (63% Hispanic, 16% Asian, 16% White)

CA-39: Still U-shaped, only I extended the district into Whittier. (56% Hispanic, 26% White, 11% Asian)

CA-40: Not much change. (46% White, 35% Hispanic, 14% Asian)

CA-42: Removed Chino and Diamond Bar while adding conservative parts of southern OC. (57% White, 26% Hispanic, 12% Asian)

CA-46: Removed half of Palos Verdes and added in a little more of Garden Grove. (48% White, 30% Hispanic, 15% Asian)

CA-47: Replaced the removed parts of Garden Grove with some areas to the east. (61% Hispanic, 21% White, 15% Asian)

CA-48: I shifted some of the conservative southern regions of this district into CA-42. (65% White, 19% Hispanic, 13% Asian)

OUTER SOUTHLAND AND SAN DIEGO

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CA-26: I wanted to maintain my hometown of Rancho Cucamonga in this district while making it more Democratic, so I excised some of the further west portions of this district, and added Pomona and Ontario while keeping neighboring CA-43 majority-Hispanic. (45% White, 41% Hispanic, 6% Asian, 6% Black)

CA-41: Added in some rural northern parts of CA-26. (64% White, 25% Hispanic)

CA-43: I had to do some reshuffling to make CA-26 more Democratic while maintaining this district as majority-Hispanic by removing Ontario, adding Chino and a small portion of Riverside. (53% Hispanic, 26% White, 12% Black)

CA-44: Moved this district entirely into Riverside so Calvert will have an even tougher reelection if he is not wiped out in 2010. 44% White, 40% Hispanic, 8% Black, 5% Asian)

CA-45: Made this district more Democratic by attaching Imperial County. (49% Hispanic, 43% White)

CA-49: Did some reshuffling and removed parts of Riverside, added the most conservative southernmost portion of Orange County including San Clemente, and moved some of the San Diego parts to CA-52. (60% White, 29% Hispanic)

CA-50: Shifted some conservative inland parts out to CA-52 while adding some liberal parts in from CA-53. (66% White, 15% Hispanic, 14% Asian)

CA-51: Removed Imperial County and made this district entirely within San Diego County. Filner has won here without Imperial County in the 90s so he should still continue to win easily. (44% Hispanic, 32% White, 13% Asian, 9% Black)

CA-52: Added in conservative areas from CA-49 and CA-50. (69% White, 22% Hispanic)

CA-53: Shifted a few liberal portions out and a few conservative portions in, but should still be a cakewalk for Davis. (50% White, 33% Hispanic, 7% Asian, 7% Black)

California State Legislature Race Ratings (2010)

Here are my SSP-style ratings for the California State Legislature in 2010. In the State Senate table, I listed all the districts, even-numbered, that are up, because there are only 20 of them, and as of now only 3 are somewhat competitive. In the State Assembly table, I listed only the districts that are or could be competitive since all 80 districts there are up. Open seats are in italics.

District details can be found at the 2010 California Race Tracker. Feel free to jump in and add any updates as you find them.

State Senate

Solid D Likely D Lean D Toss-Up Lean R Likely R Solid R
2 (Wiggins)
6 (Steinberg)
8 (Yee)
10 (Corbett)
20 (Yee)
22 (Cedillo)
24 (Romero)

26 (Price)
28 (Oropeza)
30 (R. Calderon)
32 (Negrete-McLeod)
40 (Ducheny)
16 (Florez)
34 (Correa)
12 (Denham)
4 (Aanestad)
14 (Cogdill)
18 (Ashburn)
36 (Hollingsworth)
38 (Wyland)

State Assembly

Likely D Lean D Toss-Up Lean R Likely R
31 (Arambula)
78 (Block)
15 (Buchanan)
80 (Perez)
5 (Niello)
10 (Huber)
30 (Gilmore)
36 (Knight)
26 (Berryhill)
33 (Blakeslee)
37 (A. Strickland)
63 (Emmerson)

65 (Cook)
68 (Tran)
72 (DuVall)
3 (Logue)
38 (Smyth)
59 (Adams)
64 (Nestande)
70 (DeVore)
74 (Garrick)
75 (Fletcher)

Below the flip are the Senate and Assembly districts’ Cook PVI’s, with the Board of Equalization and counties thrown in, just in case anyone is curious.

State Senate

District Incumbent PVI
SD-01
Cox
R+8.0
SD-02
Wiggins
D+15.4
SD-03
Leno
D+29.1
SD-04
Aanestad
R+10.1
SD-05
Wolk
D+7.4
SD-06
Steinberg
D+9.4
SD-07
DeSaulnier
D+13.2
SD-08
Yee
D+24.3
SD-09
Hancock
D+32.0
SD-10
Corbett
D+18.8
SD-11
Simitian
D+20.2
SD-12
Denham
D+2.3
SD-13
Alquist
D+19.2
SD-14
Cogdill
R+11.8
SD-15
Maldonado
D+5.2
SD-16
Florez
D+3.6
SD-17
Runner
R+6.0
SD-18
Ashburn
R+16.5
SD-19
T. Strickland
D+1.5
SD-20
Padilla
D+18.4
SD-21
Liu
D+15.6
SD-22
Cedillo
D+25.6
SD-23
Pavley
D+16.9
SD-24
Romero
D+16.4
SD-25
Wright
D+24.9
SD-26
Price
D+33.1
SD-27
A. Lowenthal
D+12.2
SD-28
Oropeza
D+13.8
SD-29
Huff
R+4.9
SD-30
R. Calderon
D+14.9
SD-31
Dutton
R+4.9
SD-32
Negrete-McLeod
D+13.1
SD-33
Walters
R+9.4
SD-34
Correa
D+1.5
SD-35
Harman
R+5.9
SD-36
Hollingsworth
R+12.4
SD-37
Benoit
R+4.9
SD-38
Wyland
R+6.2
SD-39
Kehoe
D+10.6
SD-40
Ducheny
D+6.9

State Assembly

District Incumbent PVI
AD-01
Chesbro
D+12.2
AD-02
Nielsen
R+14.9
AD-03
Logue
R+4.9
AD-04
Gaines
R+8.6
AD-05
Niello
R+4.0
AD-06
Huffman
D+23.0
AD-07
Evans
D+17.3
AD-08
Yamada
D+8.9
AD-09
Jones
D+19.1
AD-10
Huber
R+3.8
AD-11
Torlakson
D+16.4
AD-12
Ma
D+28.5
AD-13
Ammiano
D+36.0
AD-14
Skinner
D+31.6
AD-15
Buchanan
D+3.0
AD-16
Swanson
D+36.2
AD-17
Galgiani
D+4.0
AD-18
Hayashi
D+21.2
AD-19
Hill
D+20.5
AD-20
Torrico
D+17.5
AD-21
Ruskin
D+18.7
AD-22
Fong
D+19.1
AD-23
Coto
D+18.3
AD-24
Beall
D+14.5
AD-25
T. Berryhill
R+8.6
AD-26
B. Berryhill
R+4.5
AD-27
Monning
D+18.7
AD-28
Caballero
D+13.5
AD-29
Villines
R+10.2
AD-30
Gilmore
R+4.0
AD-31
Arambula
D+6.9
AD-32
Fuller
R+18.3
AD-33
Blakeslee
R+4.1
AD-34
Conway
R+13.7
AD-35
Nava
D+12.7
AD-36
Knight
R+6.6
AD-37
A. Strickland
R+3.1
AD-38
Smyth
R+3.0
AD-39
Fuentes
D+22.6
AD-40
Blumenfield
D+13.0
AD-41
Brownley
D+14.5
AD-42
Feuer
D+23.2
AD-43
Krekorian
D+16.5
AD-44
Portantino
D+13.4
AD-45
de León
D+29.0
AD-46
J. Pérez
D+31.7
AD-47
Bass
D+32.4
AD-48
Davis
D+37.0
AD-49
Eng
D+12.7
AD-50
De La Torre
D+23.2
AD-51
Bradford
D+27.9
AD-52
Hall
D+37.9
AD-53
Lieu
D+9.1
AD-54
B. Lowenthal
D+8.7
AD-55
Furutani
D+15.6
AD-56
Mendoza
D+8.0
AD-57
Hernandez
D+11.9
AD-58
C. Calderon
D+13.0
AD-59
Adams
R+7.1
AD-60
Hagman
R+8.3
AD-61
Torres
D+8.2
AD-62
Carter
D+16.0
AD-63
Emmerson
R+3.7
AD-64
Nestande
R+5.0
AD-65
Cook
R+7.4
AD-66
Jeffries
R+11.4
AD-67
Silva
R+7.2
AD-68
Tran
R+7.1
AD-69
Solorio
D+8.0
AD-70
DeVore
R+4.0
AD-71
Miller
R+10.9
AD-72
Vacant
R+7.2
AD-73
Harkey
R+7.8
AD-74
Garrick
R+4.3
AD-75
Fletcher
R+3.4
AD-76
Saldaña
D+12.3
AD-77
Anderson
R+11.4
AD-78
Block
D+5.1
AD-79
Salas
D+9.9
AD-80
M. Perez
D+5.1

Board of Equalization

District Incumbent PVI
BOE-01
Yee
D+19.1
BOE-02
Leonard
R+3.8
BOE-03
Steel
R+4.1
BOE-04
Shea
D+18.0

County 1996-2000 2000-2004 2004-2008
Alameda
D+18.8
D+24.0
D+26.3
Alpine
R+1.2
D+2.4
D+6.4
Amador
R+7.8
R+10.1
R+10.9
Butte
R+7.4
R+4.8
R+3.1
Calaveras
R+7.9
R+9.3
R+9.7
Colusa
R+15.3
R+16.8
R+14.4
Contra Costa
D+8.5
D+12.2
D+14.4
Del Norte
R+3.7
R+6.5
R+6.4
El Dorado
R+10.8
R+10.5
R+9.5
Fresno
R+6.0
R+6.0
R+4.8
Glenn
R+17.4
R+17.3
R+15.1
Humboldt
R+4.5
D+2.7
D+9.3
Imperial
D+5.6
D+4.6
D+6.7
Inyo
R+11.8
R+10.4
R+7.9
Kern
R+13.0
R+14.3
R+14.1
Kings
R+8.6
R+12.3
R+12.6
Lake
D+1.3
D+3.9
D+5.0
Lassen
R+2.8
R+7.0
R+20.1
Los Angeles
D+12.6
D+15.0
D+15.6
Madera
R+13.0
R+13.1
R+11.6
Marin
D+12.4
D+20.4
D+24.9
Mariposa
R+10.0
R+10.1
R+9.3
Mendocino
R+1.8
D+7.6
D+15.8
Merced
R+3.4
R+4.9
R+2.8
Modoc
R+18.4
R+23.1
R+21.8
Mono
R+5.0
R+1.9
D+1.8
Monterey
D+6.6
D+10.6
D+13.7
Napa
D+3.8
D+8.6
D+11.7
Nevada
R+2.9
R+4.8
R+2.1
Orange
R+9.5
R+8.5
R+6.8
Placer
R+11.7
R+11.7
R+10.4
Plumas
R+11.4
R+12.1
R+10.1
Riverside
R+4.2
R+5.3
R+4.9
Sacramento
D+0.7
D+1.1
D+3.3
San Benito
D+3.7
D+5.1
D+5.8
San Bernardino
R+2.8
R+2.7
R+2.7
San Diego
R+3.3
R+1.8
R+0.3
San Francisco
D+25.1
D+30.9
D+32.9
San Joaquin
R+2.0
R+1.8
R+0.6
San Luis Obispo
R+5.1
R+3.2
R+1.9
San Mateo
D+13.7
D+18.6
D+20.9
Santa Barbara
R+1.7
D+2.0
D+6.1
Santa Clara
D+10.0
D+14.0
D+16.1
Santa Cruz
D+10.2
D+18.9
D+24.6
Shasta
R+15.8
R+16.8
R+16.3
Sierra
R+13.2
R+14.5
R+13.0
Siskiyou
R+10.1
R+11.8
R+4.7
Solano
D+7.3
D+8.8
D+9.6
Sonoma
D+8.8
D+15.0
D+19.8
Stanislaus
R+3.9
R+6.2
R+5.6
Sutter
R+17.2
R+17.0
R+14.1
Tehama
R+12.7
R+15.7
R+15.3
Trinity
R+6.0
R+6.9
R+3.3
Tulare
R+12.8
R+13.9
R+13.3
Tuolumne
R+7.1
R+8.5
R+9.3
Ventura
R+2.7
R+0.4
D+0.8
Yolo
D+7.1
D+8.8
D+12.6
Yuba
R+12.0
R+14.7
R+13.4

California Voter Registration changes since the election

I’ve been saving the changes in registration differences in the competitive districts that I track in my regular registration number updates. Here I will show the changes in registration going from the last numbers before the 2008 election to the latest numbers released a few days ago. Here they are in tabulated form. And for the congressional districts, in addition to the 8 Obama-Republican districts, I tossed in CA-04, because the House race there was very close in spite of the considerable Republican advantage in registration and the presidential race, and CA-46, the district of McCain’s closest win of the 11 McCain districts and the only one that he won with less than 50%.

Cross-posted at Calitics.

Numbers are over the flip.

CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS

District 10-08 DIFF 02-09 DIFF 03-09 DIFF 05-09 DIFF
CA-03
R+2.19%
R+1.93%
R+1.91%
R+1.85%
CA-04
R+14.88%
R+14.68%
R+14.64%
R+14.69%
CA-24
R+6.40%
R+6.13%
R+6.04%
R+5.99%
CA-25
R+2.37%
R+1.68%
R+1.63%
R+1.52%
CA-26
R+5.57%
R+4.96%
R+4.92%
R+4.83%
CA-44
R+8.25%
R+7.52%
R+7.68%
R+7.77%
CA-45
R+4.60%
R+3.98%
R+3.99%
R+4.27%
CA-46
R+12.16%
R+11.79%
R+11.57%
R+11.47%
CA-48
R+16.12%
R+15.78%
R+15.46%
R+15.37%
CA-50
R+9.20%
R+8.90%
R+8.98%
R+8.87%

STATE SENATE DISTRICTS

District 10-08 DIFF 02-09 DIFF 03-09 DIFF 05-09 DIFF
SD-04
R+11.11%
R+11.05%
R+11.05%
R+11.10%
SD-12
D+13.92%
D+14.32%
D+14.37%
D+14.66%
SD-16
D+16.21%
D+16.53%
D+16.46%
D+16.49%
SD-18
R+16.01%
R+15.70%
R+15.67%
R+15.74%
SD-22
D+43.91%
D+44.21%
D+44.24%
D+44.35%
SD-24
D+31.96%
D+32.46%
D+32.39%
D+32.59%
SD-34
D+8.18%
D+8.63%
D+9.24%
D+9.39%
SD-36
R+17.49%
R+17.11%
R+17.19%
R+17.12%
SD-40
D+16.13%
D+16.84%
D+16.94%
D+17.07%

STATE ASSEMBLY DISTRICTS

District 10-08 DIFF 02-09 DIFF 03-09 DIFF 05-09 DIFF
AD-03
R+5.44%
R+5.37%
R+5.34%
R+5.45%
AD-05
R+1.23%
R+0.89%
R+0.87%
R+0.87%
AD-07
D+28.72%
D+29.11%
D+29.09%
D+29.09%
AD-09
D+37.61%
D+37.89%
D+37.93%
D+37.99%
AD-10
R+0.43%
R+0.11%
R+0.07%
D+0.01%
AD-15
D+3.96%
D+4.45%
D+4.51%
D+4.57%
AD-20
D+28.16%
D+28.43%
D+28.48%
D+28.44%
AD-21
D+20.26%
D+20.32%
D+20.39%
D+20.52%
AD-23
D+32.24%
D+32.39%
D+32.32%
D+32.29%
AD-25
R+5.51%
R+5.48%
R+5.46%
R+5.51%
AD-26
D+2.31%
D+2.76%
D+2.82%
D+2.83%
AD-30
D+9.81%
D+9.89%
D+9.65%
D+9.69%
AD-31
D+14.62%
D+15.12%
D+15.23%
D+15.30%
AD-33
R+4.81%
R+4.83%
R+4.86%
R+4.77%
AD-35
D+19.86%
D+20.26%
D+20.29%
D+20.34%
AD-36
R+0.05%
D+0.83%
D+0.91%
D+1.18%
AD-37
R+5.95%
R+5.62%
R+5.54%
R+5.47%
AD-38
R+3.76%
R+3.21%
R+3.18%
R+3.06%
AD-47
D+53.60%
D+53.67%
D+53.66%
D+53.67%
AD-50
D+45.03%
D+45.68%
D+45.71%
D+45.87%
AD-63
R+3.11%
R+2.59%
R+2.45%
R+2.37%
AD-64
R+5.98%
R+5.35%
R+5.72%
R+6.03%
AD-65
R+4.54%
R+3.92%
R+3.94%
R+4.82%
AD-68
R+9.27%
R+8.89%
R+8.43%
R+8.36%
AD-70
R+13.94%
R+13.61%
R+13.30%
R+13.16%
AD-74
R+11.11%
R+10.74%
R+10.79%
R+10.65%
AD-75
R+9.23%
R+9.07%
R+9.17%
R+9.08%
AD-76
D+14.91%
D+15.16%
D+15.07%
D+15.09%
AD-78
D+10.97%
D+11.50%
D+11.55%
D+11.62%
AD-80
D+7.82%
D+8.63%
D+8.84%
D+9.09%

Outlook for the California State Legislature in 2010 – May 2009 Special Election Edition

With the release of the new registration numbers, and a couple of special elections just around the corner, I now have updates for the open and/or competitive State Senate and State Assembly districts, as well as the eight Obama-Republican districts. The Secretary of State’s website has the presidential results by district, so I am including the presidential results in each district.

Breaking news: We now have a (albeit slight) registration advantage in AD-10!

And an edit: I am including CA-04 in the list because of McClintock’s less-than-1% win, even though the presidential race and registration gap are not particularly close.

Cross-posted at Calitics and Democracy for California.

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
CA-03
Dan Lungren
37.73%
39.58%
R+1.85
O+0.5
CA-04
Tom McClintock
31.14%
45.83%
R+14.69
M+10.1
CA-24
Elton Gallegly
35.83%
41.82%
R+5.99
O+2.8
CA-25
Buck McKeon
37.77%
39.29%
R+1.52
O+1.1
CA-26
David Dreier
35.67%
40.50%
R+4.83
O+4.0
CA-44
Ken Calvert
34.63%
42.40%
R+7.77
O+0.9
CA-45
Mary Bono Mack
37.81%
42.08%
R+4.27
O+4.6
CA-48
John Campbell
29.40%
44.77%
R+15.37
O+0.7
CA-50
Brian Bilbray
31.40%
40.27%
R+8.87
O+4.2

Competitive and/or open state legislature districts are over the flip…

Our current numbers in the Senate are 25 Democrats/15 Republicans, with winning 2 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3; and in the Assembly 51 Democrats/29 Republicans, with winning 3 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3.

SENATE

Republicans (4)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
SD-04
Sam Aanestad
33.02%
44.12%
R+11.09
M+11.8
SD-12
Jeff Denham
47.60%
32.94%
D+14.66
O+17.6
SD-18
Roy Ashburn
31.88%
47.62%
R+15.74
M+23.1
SD-36
Dennis Hollingsworth
28.94%
46.06%
R+17.12
M+14.2

Democrats (5)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
SD-16
Dean Florez
49.59%
33.10%
D+16.49
O+19.5
SD-22
Gilbert Cedillo
59.01%
14.66%
D+44.35
O+58.7
SD-24
Gloria Romero
53.63%
21.04%
D+32.59
O+41.3
SD-34
Lou Correa
42.84%
33.45%
D+9.39
O+16.8
SD-40
Denise Ducheny
46.57%
29.50%
D+17.07
O+25.7

ASSEMBLY

Republicans (16)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
AD-03
Dan Logue
34.80%
40.25%
R+5.45
M+1.6
AD-05
Roger Niello
37.90%
38.77%
R+0.87
O+4.2
AD-25
Tom Berryhill
36.81%
42.32%
R+5.51
M+7.9
AD-26
Bill Berryhill
42.06%
39.23%
D+2.82
O+4.4
AD-30
Danny Gilmore
46.28%
36.59%
D+9.69
O+3.9
AD-33
Sam Blakeslee
35.92%
40.69%
R+4.77
O+1.4
AD-36
Steve Knight
39.69%
38.51%
D+1.18
O+0.8
AD-37
Audra Strickland
35.87%
41.34%
R+5.47
O+3.7
AD-38
Cameron Smyth
36.85%
39.91%
R+3.06
O+4.9
AD-63
Bill Emmerson
38.00%
40.37%
R+2.37
O+4.1
AD-64
Brian Nestande
35.96%
41.99%
R+6.03
O+1.8
AD-65
Paul Cook
36.82%
41.64%
R+4.82
M+4.1
AD-68
Van Tran
32.80%
41.16%
R+8.36
M+2.9
AD-70
Chuck DeVore
30.20%
43.36%
R+13.16
O+3.9
AD-74
Martin Garrick
30.93%
41.58%
R+10.65
O+2.2
AD-75
Nathan Fletcher
30.72%
39.80%
R+9.08
O+4.1

Democrats (15)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
AD-07
Noreen Evans
52.80%
23.71%
D+29.09
O+43.3
AD-09
Dave Jones
56.66%
18.67%
D+37.99
O+49.0
AD-10
Alyson Huber
39.33%
39.32%
D+0.01
O+4.0
AD-15
Joan Buchanan
40.61%
36.04%
D+4.57
O+16.9
AD-20
Alberto Torrico
48.61%
20.17%
D+28.44
O+42.3
AD-21
Ira Ruskin
47.27%
26.75%
D+20.52
O+45.8
AD-23
Joe Coto
51.22%
18.93%
D+32.29
O+44.4
AD-31
Juan Arambula
49.08%
33.78%
D+15.80
O+26.1
AD-35
Pedro Nava
48.22%
27.88%
D+20.34
O+35.6
AD-47
Karen Bass
64.92%
11.25%
D+53.67
O+71.9
AD-50
Hector De La Torre
62.00%
16.13%
D+45.87
O+55.9
AD-76
Lori Saldaña
41.94%
26.85%
D+15.09
O+34.4
AD-78
Martin Block
43.08%
31.46%
D+11.62
O+21.8
AD-80
Manuel Perez
45.38%
36.29%
D+9.09
O+20.7

In the Senate, our obvious plan of action is to win the 12th and possibly the 4th if we have a strong candidate, and hold the 34th. In the Assembly, we have a lot of offense opportunities and of course, we will need to defend our 4 freshmen in vulnerable districts (Huber especially, Buchanan, Block, Perez). As for the potentially vulnerable Republican districts we should target, we should prioritize them like this:

(I) Open seats in Obama districts: 5, 33, 37, 63, 70

(II) Incumbents in Obama districts: 26, 30, 36, 38, 64, 74, 75

(III) Open seat in McCain district with small (<6%) registration edge: 25

(IV) Incumbents in McCain districts with small (<6%) registration edge: 3, 65

(V) Other open seat: 68

CA-10: Garamendi Has a Commanding Lead

Found this J. Moore Methods poll over at Calitics. Lt. Gov. John Garamendi leads among likely voters (36% have no opinion). (Rupf is Republican Warren Rupf, Sheriff of Contra Costa County.)

Garamendi Rupf DeSaulnier Buchanan
Support: 24 17 13 10
Known: 80 20 39 45
Favorable: 35 9 16 17
Unfavorable: 12 9 13 12

While Garamendi does have a commanding lead in the polls and the name rec, Senator Mark DeSaulnier or Assemblywoman Joan Buchanan can try and catch up, but it will be a long shot when facing Garamendi’s high name rec and campaign war chest. DeSaulnier is a great progressive in the state legislature and I would like him to win, but no one knows if it will be enough. For now this race is Garamendi’s to lose.

.

Reply #1 on: Today at 03:48:38 pm »  

Alcon

I think you (again) are confusing skepticism with knee-jerk disagreement.  Being “skeptical” does not entail staking the position that is contrary to mainstream medicine, culture, whatever.

That having been said, most Americans on both sides of this issue, have very little idea of what they’re talking about.

Reply #2 on: Today at 04:54:30 pm

Torie

Quote

That having been said, most Americans on both sides of this issue, have very little idea of what they’re talking about.

This is one of the truest statements that has ever been scrivened, in this or any other language for that matter.

I defy anyone to find a website that intelligently sets forth the points and counterpoints, and the points of contention, and what it is practicable to expect can be accomplished, and how much impact on temperatures if any might be achieved if something is accomplished, and indeed what will be the economic impact of a temperature rise of some specified amount.

California Registration Numbers Since 1990

I checked the California Secretary of State’s site and found that each statement of vote has registration statistics going back to 1910. I decided to use the presidential elections from 1988 on, since 1992 marked the realignment in California, Illinois, and many northeastern states that caused them to vote Democratic in every presidential election from 1992 on. Here are the numbers.

Year DEM % GOP % Other %
1988
7,052,368
50.36%
5,406,127
38.60%
1,546,378
11.04%
1992
7,410,914
49.07%
5,593,555
37.04%
2,097,004
13.89%
1996
7,387,504
47.17%
5,704,536
36.42%
2,570,035
16.41%
2000
7,134,601
45.42%
5,485,492
34.92%
3,087,214
19.65%
2004
7,120,425
43.00%
5,745,518
34.70%
3,691,330
22.29%
2008
7,683,495
44.40%
5,428,052
31.37%
4,192,544
24.23%

The 2008 election marked the end of a streak of decreasing numbers of Democratic registered voters since the bump they got in 1992. Why the Democrats’ share of the pie in 1992 fell from their 1988 numbers can be explained by the surge in unaffiliated voters, methinks, thanks to Ross Perot. Also, despite the fall in the Democrats’ numbers in proportion to the total number of registered voters, the Democratic presidential nominee has won California by stronger margins. This can be accounted for by many unaffiliated voters becoming disenchanted with the GOP’s rightward shift and voting Democratic in greater numbers, as well as more Republicans crossing over than Democrats. You will also notice that the GOP’s share of the pie has been steadily declining since 1988, with the boost they got from Arnold and the 2004 election only temporarily stopping the bleeding.

Here are the rates of change in the numbers of each parties’ registered voters. For 1992, I am showing the percent change in the numbers from 1988.

Year DEM GOP Other
1992
5.08%
3.47%
35.61%
1996
-0.32%
1.98%
22.56%
2000
-3.42%
-3.84%
20.12%
2004
-0.20%
4.74%
19.57%
2008
14.20%
-5.53%
13.58%

From here, we can see that the only times since 1988 that the Republicans surpassed Democrats in the rate of increase in the number of registered voters were 1996, where Republican optimism got a jumpstart from their 1994 landslides, and 2004, and in 2008 the rate of increase in the number of registered Democrats surpassed the rate of increase in the number of unaffiliated voters for the first time in a while. (I’m not sure of the last time this happened; I’d have to look it up.) It remains to see if 2008 was a one-time deal, or if we’ll be looking at similar numbers in 2012, with a faster increase in the number of registered Democrats than unaffiliated voters. Unaffiliated voters outnumbering Republican voters is not out of the question either, at least if current trends continue or speed up.

Outlook for the California State Legislature in 2010 – April 2009 edition

With the release of the new registration numbers, I now have updates for the open and/or competitive State Senate and State Assembly districts. The Secretary of State’s website has the presidential results by district, so I am including the presidential results in each districts.

I am also tacking on the eight districts that are our top targets in 2010: CA-03, CA-24, CA-25, CA-26, CA-44, CA-45, CA-48, and CA-50.

Cross-posted at Calitics and Democracy for California.

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
CA-03
Dan Lungren
37.72%
39.63%
R+1.91
O+0.5
CA-24
Elton Gallegly
35.84%
41.88%
R+6.04
O+2.8
CA-25
Buck McKeon
37.72%
39.35%
R+1.63
O+1.1
CA-26
David Dreier
35.64%
40.56%
R+4.92
O+4.0
CA-44
Ken Calvert
34.70%
42.38%
R+7.68
O+0.9
CA-45
Mary Bono Mack
37.97%
41.96%
R+3.99
O+4.6
CA-48
John Campbell
29.41%
44.87%
R+15.46
O+0.7
CA-50
Brian Bilbray
31.38%
40.36%
R+8.98
O+4.2

Competitive and/or open state legislature districts are over the flip…

Our current numbers in the Senate are 25 Democrats/15 Republicans, with winning 2 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3; and in the Assembly 51 Democrats/29 Republicans, with winning 3 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3.

SENATE

Republicans (4)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
SD-04
Sam Aanestad
33.05%
44.10%
R+11.05
M+11.8
SD-12
Jeff Denham
47.46%
33.09%
D+14.37
O+17.6
SD-18
Roy Ashburn
31.91%
47.58%
R+15.67
M+23.1
SD-36
Dennis Hollingsworth
28.94%
46.13%
R+17.19
M+14.2

Democrats (5)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
SD-16
Dean Florez
49.61%
33.15%
D+16.46
O+19.5
SD-22
Gilbert Cedillo
58.98%
14.74%
D+44.24
O+58.7
SD-24
Gloria Romero
53.62%
21.13%
D+32.49
O+41.3
SD-34
Lou Correa
42.82%
33.58%
D+9.24
O+16.8
SD-40
Denise Ducheny
46.59%
29.65%
D+16.94
O+25.7

ASSEMBLY

Republicans (16)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
AD-03
Dan Logue
34.81%
40.15%
R+5.34
M+1.6
AD-05
Roger Niello
37.93%
38.80%
R+0.87
O+4.2
AD-25
Tom Berryhill
36.84%
42.30%
R+5.46
M+7.9
AD-26
Bill Berryhill
42.04%
39.22%
D+2.82
O+4.4
AD-30
Danny Gilmore
46.31%
36.66%
D+9.65
O+3.9
AD-33
Sam Blakeslee
35.91%
40.77%
R+4.86
O+1.4
AD-36
Steve Knight
39.56%
38.65%
D+0.91
O+0.8
AD-37
Audra Strickland
35.86%
41.40%
R+5.54
O+3.7
AD-38
Cameron Smyth
36.84%
40.02%
R+3.18
O+4.9
AD-63
Bill Emmerson
37.90%
40.35%
R+2.45
O+4.1
AD-64
Brian Nestande
36.11%
41.83%
R+5.72
O+1.8
AD-65
Paul Cook
37.14%
41.08%
R+3.94
M+4.1
AD-68
Van Tran
32.82%
41.25%
R+8.43
M+2.9
AD-70
Chuck DeVore
30.19%
43.49%
R+13.30
O+3.9
AD-74
Martin Garrick
30.89%
41.68%
R+10.79
O+2.2
AD-75
Nathan Fletcher
30.71%
39.88%
R+9.17
O+4.1

Democrats (15)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
AD-07
Noreen Evans
52.81%
23.72%
D+29.09
O+43.3
AD-09
Dave Jones
56.64%
18.71%
D+37.93
O+49.0
AD-10
Alyson Huber
39.32%
39.39%
R+0.07
O+4.0
AD-11
Tom Torlakson
54.23%
22.06%
D+32.17
O+41.2
AD-15
Joan Buchanan
40.60%
36.09%
D+4.51
O+16.9
AD-20
Alberto Torrico
48.65%
20.17%
D+18.48
O+42.3
AD-21
Ira Ruskin
47.22%
26.83%
D+20.39
O+45.8
AD-23
Joe Coto
51.28%
18.96%
D+32.32
O+44.4
AD-31
Juan Arambula
49.07%
33.84%
D+15.23
O+26.1
AD-35
Pedro Nava
48.24%
27.95%
D+20.29
O+35.6
AD-47
Karen Bass
64.93%
11.27%
D+53.66
O+71.9
AD-50
Hector De La Torre
61.92%
16.21%
D+45.71
O+55.9
AD-76
Lori Saldaña
41.96%
26.89%
D+15.07
O+34.4
AD-78
Martin Block
43.09%
31.54%
D+11.55
O+21.8
AD-80
Manuel Perez
45.33%
36.49%
D+8.84
O+20.7

In the Senate, our obvious plan of action is to win the 12th and possibly the 4th if we have a strong candidate, and hold the 34th. In the Assembly, we have a lot of offense opportunities and of course, we will need to defend our 4 freshmen in vulnerable districts (Huber especially, Buchanan, Block, Perez). As for the potentially vulnerable Republican districts we should target, we should prioritize them like this:

(I) Open seats in Obama districts: 5, 33, 37, 63, 70

(II) Incumbents in Obama districts: 26, 30, 36, 38, 64, 74, 75

(III) Open seat in McCain district with small (<6%) registration edge: 25

(IV) Incumbents in McCain districts with small (<6%) registration edge: 3, 65

(V) Other open seat: 68