Author: californianintexas

California Presidential PVI by County (1920 – 2008)

California has undergone many dramatic changes politically as well as demographically over the years. In the dawning decades of the 20th century, California consistently voted more Republican than the country as a whole thanks to the Republicans being the liberals and the Democrats the conservatives. During the Depression and World War II, California filled up with Okies and Arkies that pushed it sharply to being more Democratic than the country. After the war, and many more newcomers later, California voted about the same as the country most of the time until 1992. President Clinton’s focusing more on the state, especially after the Northridge earthquake in early ’94, gradually brought California into consistently voting more Democratic than the country.

Here are California’s PVI’s, beginning with 1920: R+5.4; 1924: R+15.8; 1928: R+14.4; 1932: R+2.4; 1936: D+3.6; 1940: D+4.3; 1944: D+3.1; 1948: D+0.4; 1952: R+2.0; 1956: D+0.1; 1960: D+0.9; 1964: R+1.3; 1968: R+1.7; 1972: D+1.8; 1976: D+1.4; 1980: R+3.1; 1984: R+1.6; 1988: D+1.5; 1992: D+3.6; 1996: D+3.8; 2000: D+4.2; 2004: D+6.1; 2008: D+7.4.

Kerry won by 10% and carried a minority, 22 of 58, of California’s counties (Alameda, Alpine, Contra Costa, Humboldt, Imperial, Lake, Los Angeles, Marin, Mendocino, Mono, Monterey, Napa, Sacramento, San Benito, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Barbara, Santa Clara, Santa Cruz, Solano, Sonoma, Yolo).

Obama won by 24% and won a majority 34 counties, carrying all 22 Kerry counties and adding 12 more: Butte (plurality), Fresno (plurality), Merced, Nevada, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, San Joaquin, San Luis Obispo, Stanislaus (plurality), Trinity, Ventura. Obama broke some longtime Republican voting streaks in these counties. Here is the last time the new Obama-majority counties voted majority-Democratic.

San Diego – 1944

Nevada – 1964

Riverside – 1964

San Bernardino – 1964

San Joaquin – 1964

San Luis Obispo – 1964

Ventura – 1964

Merced – 1976

Trinity – 1976

Obama improved on Kerry in all 58 counties, though less so in the ultra-Democratic Bay Area counties (Alameda, Marin, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Cruz). These less-than-dramatic improvements do not suggest the region is trending Republican; looking at their numbers (70-80% Democratic), these counties most likely just maxed out their Democratic numbers. Because I want to see an expanded Democratic playing field to shut out Republicans in as many areas as possible, I am pleased at the growth in Democratic numbers, especially in the Valley and inland Southland because these areas also experienced the fastest growth in population in the past decade.

Back in 2005-6, Arnold and other California Republicans proposed a measure to award electoral votes by congressional district, Maine and Nebraska-style. Going by the 2004 presidential results, Bush would have won 22 of California’s 53 districts, which would have neutralized Democrats’ winning Ohio or Florida. Ironically, this time, had the system been in place, Republicans would have netted only 11 electoral votes.

Here I will include the maps of the counties by PVI in each presidential election from 1920 to 2008. Below the flip are the tables showing the exact PVI of each county.

Dark Blue = D+20 and up

Blue = D+15-19

Medium-Light Blue = D+10-14

Light Blue = D+5-9

Very Light Blue = D+0-4

White = EVEN

Very Light Red = R+0-4

Light Red = R+5-9

Medium-light red = R+10-14

Red = R+15-19

Dark Red = R+20 and up

1920: http://i56.tinypic.com/mh85dh.gif

1924: http://i55.tinypic.com/205a0wm…

1928: http://i52.tinypic.com/6qia6t.gif

1932: http://i52.tinypic.com/e7hvkp.gif

1936: http://i52.tinypic.com/2e4f1vt…

1940: http://i51.tinypic.com/10d5gmg…

1944: http://i51.tinypic.com/xd5wk1.gif

1948: http://i55.tinypic.com/34i0cuu…

1952: http://i54.tinypic.com/72wuwl.gif

1956: http://i54.tinypic.com/2aeq992…

1960: http://i51.tinypic.com/169fgr6…

1964: http://i55.tinypic.com/34qmvpt…

1968: http://i51.tinypic.com/5o8hu0.gif

1972: http://i56.tinypic.com/ztuosi.gif

1976: http://i51.tinypic.com/b5r31e.gif

1980: http://i53.tinypic.com/2n18569…

1984: http://i56.tinypic.com/jzckcl.gif

1988: http://i56.tinypic.com/ruo09v.gif

1992: http://i53.tinypic.com/14szck7…

1996: http://i53.tinypic.com/2gsn861…

2000: http://i53.tinypic.com/24whh5i…

2004: http://i55.tinypic.com/28rf5lk…

2008: http://i55.tinypic.com/v46ixu.gif

1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956
*California
R+5.4
R+15.8
R+14.4
R+2.4
D+3.6
D+4.3
D+3.1
D+0.4
R+2.0
D+0.1
Alameda
R+9.6
R+19.7
R+16.6
R+6.0
R+1.4
D+1.4
D+2.6
D+1.2
D+0.3
D+3.8
Alpine
R+25.8
R+26.8
R+30.7
R+21.6
R+8.4
R+15.4
R+22.1
R+27.8
R+33.0
R+27.3
Amador
D+1.9
R+4.1
D+5.1
D+14.8
D+14.5
D+12.8
D+10.2
D+8.0
D+4.9
D+5.5
Butte
R+1.5
R+9.3
R+7.3
D+3.6
D+7.4
D+4.4
D+1.5
R+2.6
R+6.3
R+4.7
Calaveras
R+0.6
R+6.5
R+1.3
D+7.6
D+10.3
D+7.1
D+3.6
D+0.9
R+3.9
R+3.6
Colusa
D+7.1
R+2.4
R+1.1
D+7.3
D+10.7
D+7.0
D+4.1
D+1.8
R+2.1
R+0.0
Contra Costa
R+4.2
R+16.1
R+13.1
R+0.1
D+6.3
D+9.0
D+8.9
D+7.8
D+5.4
D+6.1
Del Norte
R+3.7
R+10.2
R+6.8
D+5.4
D+3.0
R+5.8
R+9.2
R+9.1
R+9.0
R+2.2
El Dorado
D+2.6
R+5.2
D+4.5
D+15.5
D+15.5
D+13.2
D+9.4
D+4.4
R+1.7
R+0.9
Fresno
D+3.4
R+4.3
R+4.1
D+8.7
D+15.0
D+15.6
D+12.7
D+9.6
D+7.4
D+10.2
Glenn
D+0.7
R+9.3
R+10.6
D+0.8
D+6.4
D+2.6
R+1.4
R+4.0
R+7.0
R+1.8
Humboldt
R+12.5
R+19.2
R+18.0
R+7.6
R+0.9
D+1.4
D+2.4
D+0.7
R+3.5
R+0.1
Imperial
R+1.4
R+11.4
R+13.3
D+0.5
D+4.8
R+1.6
R+4.9
R+7.1
R+6.7
R+2.8
Inyo
D+0.9
R+6.7
R+6.6
D+4.5
D+4.6
D+0.4
R+2.2
R+7.5
R+12.1
R+11.2
Kern
D+10.8
D+1.1
R+6.2
D+5.1
D+13.8
D+10.2
D+4.7
D+3.6
D+2.5
D+3.1
Kings
D+2.6
R+3.1
D+0.1
D+9.8
D+13.3
D+13.3
D+12.4
D+10.5
D+7.6
D+10.6
Lake
D+4.1
R+4.9
R+8.8
R+1.2
R+3.4
R+10.4
R+8.9
R+10.9
R+12.8
R+10.0
Lassen
D+0.6
R+8.6
R+4.0
D+7.6
D+15.5
D+16.2
D+13.4
D+12.4
D+12.1
D+13.4
Los Angeles
R+9.1
R+18.5
R+18.5
R+5.8
D+3.0
D+4.7
D+3.6
D+0.6
R+1.7
D+0.4
Madera
D+5.0
R+4.5
R+4.3
D+8.9
D+14.5
D+14.0
D+9.8
D+7.1
D+6.7
D+10.4
Marin
R+8.6
R+18.4
R+11.9
D+0.9
D+2.3
R+0.2
R+2.9
R+6.9
R+12.3
R+10.4
Mariposa
D+8.0
D+0.8
D+0.5
D+7.5
D+12.5
D+11.6
D+5.9
R+4.5
R+11.0
R+7.0
Mendocino
R+5.0
R+12.3
R+11.5
R+0.7
D+2.8
D+1.6
D+1.0
R+2.8
R+5.9
R+2.7
Merced
R+0.9
R+11.8
R+10.2
D+4.9
D+11.8
D+9.9
D+6.5
D+4.4
D+2.9
D+6.7
Modoc
D+4.3
R+1.0
D+0.4
D+7.1
D+7.6
D+4.9
D+3.8
D+0.2
R+3.3
R+1.0
Mono
R+4.7
R+12.4
R+9.0
D+0.8
D+4.6
D+0.7
R+8.2
R+17.5
R+21.0
R+19.0
Monterey
R+4.5
R+14.2
R+11.9
R+2.5
R+0.4
R+0.0
D+0.4
R+2.3
R+6.1
R+4.7
Napa
R+9.6
R+15.4
R+9.1
D+1.9
D+0.8
R+1.5
R+1.6
R+4.4
R+6.8
R+2.4
Nevada
D+0.3
R+13.7
R+5.9
D+6.4
D+8.5
D+11.1
D+6.7
R+0.5
R+5.8
R+5.7
Orange
R+14.2
R+19.0
R+22.3
R+14.6
R+7.2
R+8.8
R+11.1
R+13.0
R+15.2
R+12.5
Placer
D+5.3
R+10.4
R+5.4
D+11.6
D+14.6
D+14.2
D+11.3
D+9.1
D+6.7
D+8.1
Plumas
D+0.8
R+8.9
D+0.8
D+15.3
D+18.0
D+17.7
D+17.1
D+14.6
D+12.3
D+13.6
Riverside
R+13.2
R+17.7
R+21.3
R+15.8
R+11.8
R+9.6
R+7.6
R+9.3
R+10.3
R+7.5
Sacramento
D+0.6
R+12.5
R+6.4
D+9.9
D+14.7
D+15.5
D+13.4
D+10.6
D+7.2
D+9.4
San Benito
R+1.2
R+9.8
R+7.5
D+2.4
D+2.8
R+2.1
R+5.7
R+8.1
R+9.7
R+6.0
San Bernardino
R+6.4
R+12.9
R+18.7
R+11.5
R+4.1
R+0.9
R+0.3
R+1.8
R+2.6
R+0.8
San Diego
R+4.0
R+14.8
R+16.1
R+5.9
R+0.4
D+1.6
D+0.9
R+1.3
R+5.8
R+7.7
San Francisco
R+3.6
R+16.9
R+7.0
D+8.6
D+10.3
D+8.9
D+6.2
D+2.9
D+0.4
D+4.0
San Joaquin
D+3.3
R+9.0
R+10.0
D+2.1
D+9.4
D+4.9
R+1.5
R+2.3
R+2.1
D+1.2
San Luis Obispo
R+2.2
R+13.4
R+10.9
D+3.7
D+5.1
R+0.6
R+1.9
R+5.6
R+9.4
R+5.7
San Mateo
R+10.1
R+20.5
R+13.4
R+0.6
D+1.8
D+1.0
R+2.6
R+7.1
R+9.8
R+5.9
Santa Barbara
R+3.4
R+15.6
R+16.8
R+5.2
D+0.3
R+0.2
R+0.1
R+6.5
R+12.4
R+9.6
Santa Clara
R+8.4
R+17.4
R+14.5
R+6.9
R+5.8
R+4.1
R+2.9
R+4.7
R+6.4
R+3.1
Santa Cruz
R+4.6
R+15.5
R+16.1
R+5.8
R+5.4
R+8.1
R+7.4
R+10.7
R+12.9
R+9.2
Shasta
D+1.7
R+7.4
R+2.9
D+10.8
D+12.2
D+11.1
D+9.6
D+5.9
D+2.6
D+6.2
Sierra
R+0.9
R+13.1
R+3.6
D+10.4
D+14.4
D+13.6
D+9.3
D+4.3
D+1.9
D+4.2
Siskiyou
D+4.4
R+8.8
R+6.5
D+7.8
D+10.4
D+8.2
D+6.3
D+3.7
D+1.4
D+3.5
Solano
D+1.6
R+12.4
R+6.1
D+7.8
D+13.1
D+16.3
D+16.3
D+14.7
D+12.9
D+14.4
Sonoma
R+6.7
R+13.6
R+10.3
D+1.3
D+1.1
R+4.6
R+5.9
R+7.3
R+10.9
R+7.8
Stanislaus
R+1.0
R+13.1
R+14.8
R+3.3
D+2.1
R+0.4
R+2.0
R+2.2
R+1.7
D+4.1
Sutter
R+3.2
R+13.5
R+6.0
D+9.2
D+11.5
D+5.7
R+0.7
R+5.1
R+9.2
R+8.8
Tehama
D+1.0
R+10.2
R+11.6
R+1.9
D+1.5
R+0.6
R+0.7
R+3.8
R+7.6
R+2.8
Trinity
D+2.3
R+4.0
D+2.3
D+13.2
D+12.2
D+7.9
D+6.8
D+1.7
R+1.4
D+2.4
Tulare
R+0.8
R+4.9
R+7.0
D+0.6
D+6.5
D+4.0
R+0.9
R+2.1
R+1.4
D+1.5
Tuolumne
D+3.1
R+7.7
R+5.1
D+6.2
D+10.3
D+9.9
D+6.5
D+0.5
R+3.7
D+0.6
Ventura
R+13.1
R+18.6
R+16.5
R+5.0
D+1.7
D+1.9
D+4.2
D+5.0
D+3.4
D+5.2
Yolo
D+1.2
R+6.0
R+4.5
D+6.0
D+8.9
D+5.8
D+4.3
D+3.2
D+2.0
D+5.7
Yuba
R+2.8
R+12.8
R+3.3
D+11.0
D+13.4
D+11.7
D+7.2
D+1.6
R+3.1
R+1.8
1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
*California
D+0.9
R+1.3
R+1.7
D+1.8
D+1.4
R+3.1
R+1.6
D+1.5
D+3.6
D+3.8
D+4.2
D+6.1
D+7.4
Alameda
D+4.7
D+4.7
D+7.2
D+13.7
D+13.6
D+10.3
D+15.0
D+19.1
D+20.7
D+20.6
D+21.6
D+25.8
D+27.1
Alpine
R+24.4
R+22.9
R+16.5
R+8.7
R+4.4
R+7.9
R+4.4
R+0.8
R+3.7
R+4.8
R+3.5
D+2.0
D+7.4
Amador
D+6.8
D+5.4
D+3.9
D+3.7
D+3.1
R+3.2
R+5.5
R+3.2
R+3.7
R+6.5
R+9.4
R+10.9
R+11.4
Butte
R+4.5
R+8.9
R+11.3
R+6.1
R+2.1
R+8.0
R+7.9
R+4.0
R+2.9
R+6.7
R+10.1
R+6.6
R+3.1
Calaveras
R+1.7
R+3.0
R+5.7
R+5.5
R+2.2
R+6.3
R+8.5
R+4.7
R+3.5
R+6.9
R+10.2
R+10.5
R+10.6
Colusa
D+1.4
R+1.2
R+3.1
R+1.9
R+1.6
R+7.0
R+8.1
R+6.8
R+9.5
R+13.5
R+16.1
R+17.3
R+14.9
Contra Costa
D+4.8
D+2.6
D+1.8
D+3.9
D+2.4
R+1.8
D+1.1
D+4.9
D+7.7
D+8.2
D+8.8
D+12.7
D+14.9
Del Norte
D+3.0
D+2.0
D+0.6
D+1.5
D+3.0
R+3.0
R+4.2
D+1.3
D+1.9
R+2.1
R+7.2
R+8.1
R+6.9
El Dorado
D+2.2
R+0.3
R+2.9
D+0.1
D+2.3
R+5.8
R+8.9
R+6.5
R+7.5
R+11.1
R+12.7
R+11.4
R+10.0
Fresno
D+9.9
D+4.9
D+3.4
D+6.1
D+4.7
R+0.4
D+1.9
D+3.8
D+0.4
R+4.2
R+5.7
R+6.1
R+4.7
Glenn
D+1.1
R+5.4
R+8.9
R+5.9
R+3.1
R+10.2
R+13.5
R+10.4
R+10.7
R+15.5
R+19.4
R+18.4
R+15.8
Humboldt
D+4.0
D+4.0
D+2.6
D+5.2
D+8.0
D+1.2
D+1.8
D+9.4
D+9.9
D+4.2
D+1.1
D+6.2
D+10.9
Imperial
R+1.2
R+6.7
R+9.1
R+5.5
R+2.1
R+3.5
R+4.2
R+2.7
R+1.0
D+2.6
D+5.2
D+4.7
D+7.0
Inyo
R+6.8
R+6.4
R+9.3
R+9.9
R+9.9
R+13.4
R+14.1
R+11.9
R+11.4
R+13.1
R+14.6
R+11.7
R+8.7
Kern
D+2.8
R+1.7
R+2.2
R+1.6
R+2.9
R+6.6
R+7.6
R+7.4
R+9.5
R+12.5
R+13.6
R+14.4
R+14.3
Kings
D+11.4
D+7.7
D+5.6
D+2.8
D+0.5
R+2.7
R+4.6
R+4.3
R+4.1
R+6.1
R+8.6
R+12.4
R+12.8
Lake
R+8.2
R+7.0
R+4.3
D+0.1
D+3.4
R+0.9
R+0.6
D+4.3
D+6.4
D+5.7
D+4.3
D+5.2
D+5.9
Lassen
D+12.3
D+6.9
D+4.1
D+6.0
D+6.5
R+0.1
R+4.0
R+4.5
R+6.3
R+11.2
R+18.2
R+20.7
R+21.0
Los Angeles
D+1.3
R+1.8
R+2.2
D+2.4
D+2.6
R+0.2
D+1.9
D+5.2
D+8.7
D+11.0
D+13.5
D+15.6
D+16.0
Madera
D+11.7
D+7.2
D+4.8
D+5.3
D+4.6
R+0.4
R+2.0
R+1.6
R+4.8
R+11.1
R+14.0
R+13.7
R+12.0
Marin
R+8.0
R+3.5
R+1.2
D+2.8
D+1.2
R+3.4
D+4.4
D+11.5
D+15.8
D+15.3
D+15.9
D+22.3
D+25.6
Mariposa
R+3.6
R+4.2
R+4.6
R+1.2
D+1.5
R+3.4
R+5.0
R+2.5
R+2.5
R+7.8
R+12.7
R+11.7
R+10.2
Mendocino
D+0.5
D+2.2
D+1.6
D+3.5
D+4.4
D+1.4
D+3.9
D+8.4
D+13.6
D+11.0
D+6.5
D+11.9
D+17.5
Merced
D+9.0
D+6.9
D+6.7
D+5.8
D+3.8
D+2.0
D+0.9
D+0.8
D+0.7
R+2.1
R+3.7
R+4.9
R+2.7
Modoc
D+1.1
R+2.4
R+4.9
R+3.7
R+2.0
R+9.7
R+13.9
R+11.0
R+9.2
R+12.8
R+21.7
R+24.3
R+22.8
Mono
R+16.5
R+17.1
R+18.9
R+14.0
R+9.8
R+13.9
R+15.1
R+11.6
R+6.9
R+6.9
R+7.8
R+2.6
D+2.2
Monterey
R+4.2
R+2.9
R+1.7
R+0.6
R+0.5
R+5.2
R+2.6
D+2.4
D+5.0
D+5.5
D+7.4
D+11.4
D+14.1
Napa
R+0.7
R+0.7
D+1.4
D+0.7
R+2.3
R+5.3
R+2.7
D+1.7
D+5.1
D+5.5
D+5.6
D+9.5
D+12.3
Nevada
R+3.1
R+4.4
R+5.6
R+1.5
D+0.8
R+6.6
R+8.0
R+4.8
R+5.6
R+9.9
R+11.6
R+6.4
R+2.0
Orange
R+10.4
R+14.2
R+17.4
R+13.7
R+12.4
R+17.3
R+18.0
R+15.5
R+13.1
R+12.0
R+10.4
R+8.8
R+7.1
Placer
D+8.8
D+5.3
D+4.1
D+6.5
D+6.0
R+2.0
R+5.8
R+5.8
R+7.7
R+11.2
R+13.0
R+12.3
R+10.8
Plumas
D+14.0
D+10.7
D+9.0
D+10.8
D+8.0
R+0.2
R+1.1
D+1.7
R+0.3
R+7.7
R+13.9
R+13.2
R+10.6
Riverside
R+5.6
R+5.5
R+5.9
R+2.8
D+0.1
R+5.8
R+7.6
R+5.6
R+4.3
R+4.3
R+4.9
R+5.5
R+4.9
Sacramento
D+9.5
D+5.5
D+4.9
D+8.3
D+7.0
D+2.0
D+2.0
D+2.5
D+2.0
D+1.0
D+1.1
D+1.6
D+3.7
San Benito
R+1.8
R+1.1
R+0.8
D+0.2
R+1.0
R+3.7
R+3.3
R+1.8
D+1.0
D+2.5
D+4.1
D+5.3
D+6.1
San Bernardino
R+0.8
R+3.3
R+4.7
R+3.1
R+1.4
R+5.9
R+8.2
R+6.7
R+4.7
R+3.4
R+2.7
R+2.9
R+2.6
San Diego
R+6.8
R+9.2
R+11.1
R+6.5
R+5.4
R+11.0
R+10.4
R+7.1
R+4.8
R+4.0
R+4.0
R+2.1
R+0.2
San Francisco
D+7.0
D+9.0
D+12.1
D+16.6
D+12.2
D+11.4
D+22.4
D+27.4
D+27.2
D+27.1
D+29.8
D+34.0
D+34.1
San Joaquin
D+0.0
R+1.3
R+1.0
D+0.5
D+0.8
R+3.7
R+3.4
R+1.1
R+1.2
R+2.6
R+2.4
R+1.7
R+0.4
San Luis Obispo
R+2.7
R+3.0
R+3.1
R+0.4
D+0.1
R+6.9
R+7.7
R+4.1
R+1.9
R+4.7
R+7.4
R+4.4
R+1.7
San Mateo
R+2.7
D+0.6
D+2.7
D+4.5
D+1.1
R+3.1
D+2.4
D+8.5
D+11.7
D+12.9
D+15.0
D+19.4
D+21.4
Santa Barbara
R+7.1
R+6.2
R+6.0
R+1.0
D+0.6
R+5.7
R+6.1
R+2.7
D+0.1
R+0.5
R+0.9
D+2.8
D+6.6
Santa Clara
R+2.2
R+0.5
D+1.9
D+5.2
D+3.1
R+2.4
D+0.5
D+4.8
D+8.0
D+9.6
D+11.3
D+14.8
D+16.7
Santa Cruz
R+8.0
R+6.3
R+3.8
D+2.5
D+6.6
D+2.5
D+7.5
D+14.9
D+17.9
D+16.1
D+16.0
D+22.4
D+25.9
Shasta
D+12.2
D+8.5
D+5.9
D+9.1
D+7.1
R+3.7
R+6.4
R+5.3
R+8.3
R+13.7
R+17.9
R+17.8
R+16.9
Sierra
D+4.9
D+4.1
D+3.2
D+6.9
D+8.6
D+1.4
R+0.1
D+1.5
R+1.5
R+10.0
R+17.0
R+16.7
R+14.6
Siskiyou
D+7.2
D+4.6
D+1.3
D+3.9
D+3.3
R+4.0
R+3.7
D+0.7
D+1.9
R+4.0
R+13.0
R+13.3
R+9.7
Solano
D+12.5
D+8.6
D+9.7
D+8.5
D+5.6
D+1.8
D+1.2
D+4.9
D+7.4
D+7.7
D+7.8
D+9.0
D+9.9
Sonoma
R+4.3
R+2.1
R+1.3
D+1.1
D+1.9
R+1.5
D+2.8
D+9.4
D+13.3
D+12.9
D+12.6
D+17.2
D+20.7
Stanislaus
D+4.5
D+2.4
D+3.4
D+5.3
D+5.8
D+1.4
R+0.3
R+0.2
R+0.3
R+2.5
R+4.4
R+6.3
R+5.4
Sutter
R+9.4
R+13.1
R+13.9
R+9.2
R+5.2
R+10.6
R+13.8
R+13.8
R+15.0
R+16.5
R+17.5
R+17.1
R+14.4
Tehama
D+1.7
R+0.6
R+1.9
D+2.5
D+5.1
R+3.9
R+7.5
R+4.3
R+3.5
R+8.2
R+15.3
R+16.8
R+16.2
Trinity
D+9.2
D+6.8
D+1.3
D+4.4
D+4.7
R+3.6
R+5.4
R+2.5
R+2.5
R+5.3
R+10.9
R+9.3
R+3.1
Tulare
D+0.4
R+2.8
R+3.9
R+3.5
R+3.6
R+6.7
R+6.1
R+5.9
R+8.2
R+11.7
R+12.9
R+14.0
R+13.5
Tuolumne
D+3.0
D+1.3
R+0.1
D+1.7
D+3.1
R+3.0
R+3.2
R+0.5
R+1.3
R+5.0
R+8.6
R+9.2
R+9.9
Ventura
D+3.9
R+1.2
R+3.8
R+4.6
R+4.9
R+8.8
R+11.1
R+9.4
R+5.4
R+3.4
R+2.6
R+0.7
D+1.0
Yolo
D+7.3
D+6.6
D+8.7
D+13.9
D+11.9
D+6.4
D+9.2
D+11.1
D+11.8
D+10.5
D+9.1
D+10.4
D+13.3
Yuba
R+0.2
R+2.9
R+3.9
R+1.2
D+2.4
R+1.8
R+6.0
R+6.9
R+8.8
R+11.0
R+13.5
R+15.5
R+14.0

CA-Primaries: Races to Watch

With the California primaries only days away, I decided to make a list of races worth watching this coming Super Tuesday. Cross-posted at Calitics and Democracy for California.

U.S. Senate (R) – Fiorina seems to have consolidated the “outsider” vote, seeing as she is the only one of the three that has not held elected office and it seems that being an outsider will get one far in the Republican primary (though not so much in a California general election).

Governor (R) – Exactly as I predicted, this race has unfolded to be 2006 in reverse. Whoever wins the GOP primary here will be so radioactive that many Republican voters likely will cross over to vote for Jerry Brown, like many Democratic voters did for Arnold last time. If Jerry Brown pulls similar numbers among Republicans that Arnold did among Democrats, then Brown is likely gonna win big. And I’m unsure about how indies will go, so I just went with an estimate similar to the 2006 numbers.

DEM 42%-GOP 33%-OTHER 25%

Brown: 93%/22%/60% = 61%

GOP nominee: 7%/78%/40% = 39%

Lt. Governor (D) – This race will be very interesting: a classic NorCal/SoCal matchup, between Gavin Newsom and Janice Hahn.

Lt. Governor (R) – Newly-appointed incumbent Abel Maldonado will face a tough primary with more conservative State Senator Sam Aanestad. Given that moderates have fared pretty poorly in California elections of late, I give Aanestad the edge.

Sec. of State (R) – Any race with the Birther Queen just has to be a race to watch, more so for the comedy value, though I think most Republicans don’t buy her BS, so I see Dunn getting the nomination. No matter who wins, Debra Bowen is likely a cinch for a second term.

Attorney General (D) – Very crowded primary here, with 3 term-limited Assemblymen, Torrico, Nava, and Lieu; S.F. District Attorney Kamala Harris; Facebook attorney Chris Kelly; and disgraced ex-L.A. city attorney Delgadillo, though the race seems to have narrowed to just Harris and Kelly. From what I have heard of Kelly, I am rooting for Harris.

Controller (R) – Not much drama here, but I am hoping for Tony Strickland to win so he can lose to John Chiang even worse than in 2006. Unfortunately, he is not up for reelection to the State Senate until 2012, so if he wins the nomination but loses the general, he will still be in the senate (hopefully until 2012).

Insurance Commissioner (D) – Here we have two strong candidates in term-limited assemblymen Hector De La Torre and Dave Jones. I have no preference in this race, but since Jones has more money and establishment backing, I think he’ll win the nod.

CA-11 (R) – Will David Harmer, who lost by only 10% in the more Democratic CA-10 in the special election (albeit with lower turnout) be able to make it past the primary against Tony Amador and be more competitive in the general?

CA-19 (D) – I am pulling for Loraine Goodwin here. Any campaign based on health care reform is a big winner in Democratic primaries and in general elections in most parts of the state. Not sure what the HCR numbers are in this neck of the woods.

CA-19 (R) – I think I will root for Denham here, as he has won in more Democratic turf, so he is relatively saner. (And Denham is term-limited, so CA-19 run or no CA-19 run, we have a great shot at winning SD-12.) Pombo shouldn’t really be of much concern, as he has placed a distant third in the recent primary poll.

CA-26 (R) – My hometown district, where Dreier faces a primary challenge from businessman Mark Butler. While I consider Dreier to be the heavy favorite, this primary challenge could further drain his campaign coffers. If he wins the primary, Dreier has the advantage of incumbency and a year more favorable to his party (though anti-Obama sentiment is much weaker in California than elsewhere). A disadvantage Dreier has is depleted campaign coffers, from spending like crazy to win only 52% against Warner in 2008 and possibly from this primary challenge.

CA-33 (D) – Former Assembly speaker Karen Bass is likely the heavy favorite, and I hope she wins.

CA-36 (D) – Harman/Winograd redux, only with more fireworks this time around.

CA-42 (R) – Even though Gary Miller’s voting record is unabashedly conservative, he is still getting teabagged by three other Republicans. Count on yet another incumbent scoring a subpar primary performance.

CA-45 (R) – Mary Bono Mack has drawn teabag primary opposition from Clayton Thibodeau for her vote for cap-and-trade. She also voted against repealing DADT in spite of her district having the highest concentration of gays of any Republican-held district, possibly out of fear of getting teabagged. If Thibodeau upsets Bono Mack, this Obama-voting R+3 district could be put into play.

CA-47 (R) – Will Tan and Van split the Vietnamese vote, allowing Kathy Smith to sneak through?

CA-50 (D) – I like Busby, but I think her time has passed, if she couldn’t beat Bilbray in the far more Democratic-favored 2006. Attorney Tracy Emblem seems to have most of the grassroots support.

AD-05 (R) – In this open, evenly-divided suburban Sacramento seat, the Tea Party has gotten into another Republican primary, backing Craig DeLuz against party-backed Prop 8 backer Andy Pugno. I am rooting for DeLuz to win the primary so in one election we defeat a Prop H8er and increase our chances of winning this district too.

AD-30 (D) – The Parra/Florez feud continues, with Nicole’s dad Pete Parra facing off against Dean’s mom Fran Florez, who lost to Danny Gilmore, who didn’t like being an Assemblyman and that’s why he’s not running, which I at first found surprising.

AD-36 (D) – Linda Jones, who ran here in 2008, faces primary opposition from real estate broker Maggie Campbell and police officer Shawntrice Watkins. This time I am rooting for Watkins, because this Antelope Valley-centric district is very law-and-order, being the home of the Runners (Sharon and George, of “Jessica’s Law” fame), and incumbent Steve Knight also having been a police officer before being elected to the Assembly. Watkins could cut into Knight’s law-and-order advantage. Plus Watkins’ endorsement from Equality California can’t hurt either.

AD-68 (D) and (R) – I am really looking forward to an all-Vietnamese matchup here. Will be interesting to gauge the Vietnamese vote if it’s Phu Nguyen (D) vs. Long Pham (R).

And what is a California election without some ballot measures? Five are on the ballot this time.

Prop 13: Tax break to property owners for making seismic retrofits. I like seeing tax breaks used as incentives for good causes. Vote YES!

Prop 14: Top two votegetters in the primary would go on to the general election, limiting voter choices. Vote NO!

Prop 15: Repeals ban on public financing and raises fees on lobbyists to fund a public financing system for SecState election beginning in 2014. Vote YES!

Prop 16: PG&E power grab that requires a 2/3 vote to create public power districts or allow local governments to purchase their own renewable power. Vote NO!

Prop 17: Weakens consumer protections and allow car insurance companies to charge much more for late payments. Vote NO!

Outlook for the California State Legislature in 2010 – May 2010 Edition

While the range of competitive House districts has narrowed considerably, I am still including all 8 Obama-Republican districts to watch their trends. I also added state legislative seats that are open this year in which the incumbent is not term-limited.

Cross-posted at Calitics and Democracy for California.

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
CA-03
Dan Lungren
38.41%
39.15%
R+0.74
O+0.5
CA-24
Elton Gallegly
35.72%
41.46%
R+5.74
O+2.8
CA-25
Buck McKeon
37.39%
39.42%
R+2.03
O+1.1
CA-26
David Dreier
35.55%
40.13%
R+4.58
O+4.0
CA-44
Ken Calvert
34.33%
42.75%
R+8.42
O+0.9
CA-45
Mary Bono Mack
37.76%
41.55%
R+3.79
O+4.6
CA-48
John Campbell
29.25%
44.44%
R+15.19
O+0.7
CA-50
Brian Bilbray
31.49%
40.23%
R+8.74
O+4.2

Competitive and/or open state legislature districts are over the flip…

Our current numbers in the Senate are 25 Democrats/14 Republicans/1 Vacant, with winning 2 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3; and in the Assembly 49 Democrats/29 Republicans/1 Independent (who is term-limited)/1 Vacant (Dem seat which will be filled before Election Day), with winning 3 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3. Incumbents running for reelection are italicized.

SENATE

Republicans (6)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
SD-04
Sam Aanestad
32.57%
43.77%
R+12.20
M+11.8
SD-12
Jeff Denham
49.85%
31.47%
D+18.38
O+17.6
SD-14
Dave Cogdill
34.06%
46.91%
R+12.85
M+13.2
SD-15
Vacant
40.78%
34.50%
D+6.28
O+20.3
SD-18
Roy Ashburn
31.63%
47.31%
R+15.68
M+23.1
SD-36
Dennis Hollingsworth
29.03%
45.81%
R+16.78
M+14.2

Democrats (6)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
SD-02
Pat Wiggins
49.76%
24.40%
D+15.36
O+39.9
SD-16
Dean Florez
50.63%
31.84%
D+18.79
O+19.5
SD-22
Gilbert Cedillo
58.58%
14.61%
D+43.97
O+58.7
SD-24
Gloria Romero
53.17%
21.13%
D+32.04
O+41.3
SD-34
Lou Correa
44.25%
32.73%
D+11.52
O+16.8
SD-40
Denise Ducheny
46.63%
28.91%
D+17.72
O+25.7

ASSEMBLY

Republicans (19)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
AD-03
Dan Logue
34.34%
39.78%
R+5.44
M+1.6
AD-05
Roger Niello
38.81%
38.30%
D+0.51
O+4.2
AD-25
Tom Berryhill
37.51%
41.42%
R+3.91
M+7.9
AD-26
Bill Berryhill
42.71%
38.57%
D+4.14
O+4.4
AD-30
Danny Gilmore
45.87%
36.18%
D+9.69
O+3.9
AD-32
Jean Fuller
31.06%
48.95%
R+17.89
M+26.7
AD-33
Sam Blakeslee
35.70%
40.74%
R+5.04
O+1.4
AD-36
Steve Knight
38.95%
39.07%
R+0.12
O+0.8
AD-37
Audra Strickland
35.81%
40.97%
R+5.16
O+3.7
AD-38
Cameron Smyth
36.77%
39.51%
R+2.74
O+4.9
AD-59
Anthony Adams
34.63%
42.93%
R+8.30
M+4.8
AD-63
Bill Emmerson
37.87%
40.10%
R+2.23
O+4.1
AD-64
Brian Nestande
35.68%
42.24%
R+5.56
O+1.8
AD-65
Paul Cook
36.62%
41.44%
R+4.82
M+4.1
AD-68
Van Tran
32.67%
40.91%
R+8.24
M+2.9
AD-70
Chuck DeVore
30.02%
42.99%
R+12.97
O+3.9
AD-74
Martin Garrick
30.98%
41.60%
R+10.62
O+2.2
AD-75
Nathan Fletcher
30.87%
39.84%
R+8.97
O+4.1
AD-77
Joel Anderson
30.92%
43.75%
R+12.83
M+13.0

Democrats (19)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
AD-07
Noreen Evans
52.75%
23.42%
D+29.33
O+43.3
AD-09
Dave Jones
55.94%
19.80%
D+36.14
O+49.0
AD-10
Alyson Huber
39.97%
39.03%
D+0.94
O+4.0
AD-11
Tom Torlakson
53.91%
21.78%
D+32.13
O+41.2
AD-15
Joan Buchanan
40.65%
35.65%
D+5.00
O+16.9
AD-20
Alberto Torrico
48.63%
19.89%
D+28.74
O+42.3
AD-21
Ira Ruskin
47.55%
26.25%
D+21.30
O+45.8
AD-23
Joe Coto
51.34%
18.69%
D+32.65
O+44.4
AD-28
Anna Caballero
55.39%
23.31%
D+32.08
O+38.3
AD-31
Juan Arambula
50.88%
32.08%
D+18.80
O+26.1
AD-35
Pedro Nava
47.79%
27.96%
D+19.83
O+35.6
AD-45
Kevin de León
58.83%
12.84%
D+45.99
O+63.6
AD-47
Karen Bass
64.73%
11.20%
D+53.53
O+71.9
AD-50
Hector De La Torre
61.48%
16.40%
D+45.08
O+55.9
AD-57
Ed Hernandez
51.14%
25.19%
D+25.95
O+34.4
AD-76
Lori Saldaña
42.24%
26.81%
D+15.43
O+34.4
AD-78
Martin Block
43.52%
30.78%
D+12.74
O+21.8
AD-79
Mary Salas
48.47%
23.91%
D+24.56
O+31.6
AD-80
Manuel Perez
45.41%
35.39%
D+10.02
O+20.7

CA-Gov, CA-Sen: County Baselines

Here is my attempt at estimating the county baselines to see the absolute minimum we can pull in the counties to be able to break 50% statewide in California. Based on trends that I’ve pointed out many times over, close races in California are likely to get rarer and rarer, so I decided that now would be my best chance at showing what a close race in California could look like. Third parties usually pull between 3 and 5% of the vote, so I gave 4% to the third parties.

County 2008 # voters % of 2008 vote 2008% Pres. Needed to reach 50%
State
13,743,177
100.0%
61/37
50/46
Los Angeles
3,368,057
24.5%
69/29
58/38
San Diego
1,245,947
9.1%
54/44
43/53
Orange
1,167,657
8.5%
50/48
57/39
Santa Clara
678,033
4.9%
69/29
58/38
Riverside
657,005
4.8%
50/48
39/57
Alameda
628,545
4.6%
79/19
68/28
San Bernardino
616,320
4.5%
52/46
41/55
Sacramento
546,660
4.0%
58/39
47/48
Contra Costa
456,876
3.3%
68/30
57/39
San Francisco
388,112
2.8%
84/14
73/23
Ventura
343,690
2.5%
55/43
44/52
San Mateo
307,350
2.2%
73/25
62/34
Fresno
275,554
2.0%
50/48
39/57
Kern
235,854
1.7%
40/58
29/67
Sonoma
231,817
1.7%
74/24
63/33
San Joaquin
212,214
1.5%
54/44
43/53
Santa Barbara
176,562
1.3%
60/37
49/46
Placer
175,215
1.3%
43/54
32/63
Stanislaus
162,941
1.2%
50/48
39/57
Solano
162,638
1.2%
63/35
52/44
Marin
141,321
1.0%
78/20
67/29
Monterey
131,381
1.0%
68/30
57/39
Santa Cruz
128,555
0.9%
77/20
66/29
Tulare
106,551
0.8%
41/57
30/66
Butte
99,392
0.7%
50/47
39/56
El Dorado
93,890
0.7%
44/54
33/63
Shasta
81,378
0.6%
36/62
25/71
Yolo
80,674
0.6%
67/31
56/40
San Luis Obispo
68,424
0.5%
51/46
40/55
Merced
64,688
0.5%
53/45
42/54
Humboldt
64,358
0.5%
62/34
51/43
Napa
60,366
0.4%
65/33
54/42
Nevada
56,177
0.4%
51/46
40/55
Madera
43,032
0.3%
42/56
31/65
Mendocino
40,580
0.3%
69/27
58/36
Imperial
39,823
0.3%
62/36
51/45
Kings
35,775
0.3%
42/56
31/65
Sutter
33,337
0.2%
41/57
30/66
Tuolumne
27,499
0.2%
42/55
31/64
Lake
25,863
0.2%
58/39
47/48
Tehama
24,803
0.2%
36/60
25/69
Calaveras
23,588
0.2%
42/55
31/64
Siskiyou
21,723
0.2%
43/53
32/62
Yuba
21,681
0.2%
41/56
30/65
San Benito
19,982
0.1%
60/38
49/47
Amador
19,006
0.1%
41/56
30/65
Lassen
11,510
0.1%
31/65
20/74
Plumas
11,169
0.1%
43/55
32/64
Glenn
10,053
0.1%
38/60
27/69
Mariposa
9,756
0.1%
42/55
31/64
Del Norte
9,684
0.1%
45/52
34/61
Inyo
8,625
0.1%
44/53
33/62
Colusa
6,532
0.0%
40/58
29/67
Trinity
6,482
0.0%
50/46
39/55
Mono
5,621
0.0%
56/42
45/51
Modoc
4,505
0.0%
30/67
19/76
Sierra
2,012
0.0%
37/58
26/67
Alpine
697
0.0%
61/36
50/45

Here’s a visual aid, comparing the expected results in a close race in California with the 2008 results:

Hypothetical close race

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2008

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Outlook for the California State Legislature in 2010 – Post-Filing Deadline Edition

With the filing deadline passed, we are beginning to see how the fields are shaping up for the 2010 elections in California. While the range of competitive House districts has narrowed considerably, I am still including all 8 Obama-Republican districts to watch their trends.

Cross-posted at Calitics and Democracy for California.

Breaking news: We now have a registration advantage in Assembly District 5 and are closing in on CA-03!

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
CA-03
Dan Lungren
38.46%
39.04%
R+0.58
O+0.5
CA-24
Elton Gallegly
35.78%
41.53%
R+5.75
O+2.8
CA-25
Buck McKeon
37.42%
39.58%
R+2.16
O+1.1
CA-26
David Dreier
35.64%
40.15%
R+4.51
O+4.0
CA-44
Ken Calvert
34.67%
42.47%
R+7.80
O+0.9
CA-45
Mary Bono Mack
38.02%
41.50%
R+3.48
O+4.6
CA-48
John Campbell
29.36%
44.36%
R+15.00
O+0.7
CA-50
Brian Bilbray
31.33%
39.91%
R+8.58
O+4.2

Competitive and/or open state legislature districts are over the flip…

Our current numbers in the Senate are 25 Democrats/15 Republicans, with winning 2 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3; and in the Assembly 49 Democrats/29 Republicans/1 Independent (who is term-limited)/1 Vacant (Dem seat which will be filled before Election Day), with winning 3 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3.

SENATE

Republicans (4)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
SD-04
Sam Aanestad
32.78%
43.83%
R+11.05
M+11.8
SD-12
Jeff Denham
49.13%
32.03%
D+17.10
O+17.6
SD-18
Roy Ashburn
31.76%
47.36%
R+15.60
M+23.1
SD-36
Dennis Hollingsworth
28.97%
45.60%
R+16.63
M+14.2

Democrats (5)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
SD-16
Dean Florez
50.41%
32.00%
D+18.41
O+19.5
SD-22
Gilbert Cedillo
58.91%
14.39%
D+43.52
O+58.7
SD-24
Gloria Romero
53.53%
20.72%
D+32.81
O+41.3
SD-34
Lou Correa
44.22%
32.49%
D+11.73
O+16.8
SD-40
Denise Ducheny
46.47%
28.84%
D+17.63
O+25.7

ASSEMBLY

Republicans (16)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
AD-03
Dan Logue
34.52%
39.91%
R+5.39
M+1.6
AD-05
Roger Niello
38.97%
38.05%
D+0.92
O+4.2
AD-25
Tom Berryhill
37.35%
41.70%
R+4.35
M+7.9
AD-26
Bill Berryhill
42.35%
38.88%
D+3.47
O+4.4
AD-30
Danny Gilmore
46.12%
36.12%
D+10.00
O+3.9
AD-33
Sam Blakeslee
35.89%
40.47%
R+4.58
O+1.4
AD-36
Steve Knight
38.92%
39.29%
R+0.37
O+0.8
AD-37
Audra Strickland
35.87%
41.04%
R+5.17
O+3.7
AD-38
Cameron Smyth
36.83%
39.62%
R+2.79
O+4.9
AD-63
Bill Emmerson
37.96%
40.01%
R+2.05
O+4.1
AD-64
Brian Nestande
36.08%
41.95%
R+5.87
O+1.8
AD-65
Paul Cook
36.91%
41.29%
R+4.38
M+4.1
AD-68
Van Tran
32.78%
40.78%
R+8.00
M+2.9
AD-70
Chuck DeVore
30.12%
42.93%
R+12.81
O+3.9
AD-74
Martin Garrick
30.88%
41.17%
R+10.29
O+2.2
AD-75
Nathan Fletcher
30.64%
39.58%
R+8.94
O+4.1

Democrats (15)

District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result
AD-07
Noreen Evans
52.94%
23.47%
D+29.47
O+43.3
AD-09
Dave Jones
56.92%
18.55%
D+38.37
O+49.0
AD-10
Alyson Huber
39.41%
39.18%
D+0.23
O+4.0
AD-15
Joan Buchanan
40.65%
35.70%
D+4.95
O+16.9
AD-20
Alberto Torrico
48.74%
19.90%
D+28.84
O+42.3
AD-21
Ira Ruskin
47.61%
26.40%
D+21.21
O+45.8
AD-23
Joe Coto
51.59%
18.60%
D+32.99
O+44.4
AD-31
Juan Arambula
50.40%
32.35%
D+18.05
O+26.1
AD-35
Pedro Nava
48.03%
27.56%
D+20.47
O+35.6
AD-47
Karen Bass
64.89%
11.14%
D+53.75
O+71.9
AD-50
Hector De La Torre
61.99%
15.82%
D+46.17
O+55.9
AD-76
Lori Saldaña
41.94%
26.52%
D+15.42
O+34.4
AD-78
Martin Block
42.97%
30.97%
D+12.00
O+21.8
AD-80
Manuel Perez
45.74%
35.25%
D+10.49
O+20.7

New California Fault Lines

With so much talk of splitting California up into different states, I decided to give it a stab with Dave’s redistricting app. I decided to keep counties whole for simplicity. I also did very rough calculations for the House seats.

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NorCal Urbana

The North Coast is an overwhelmingly Democratic powerhouse, and if it were a separate state, it would be the most Democratic in the country. And fortunately for Democrats, this part of California is very populous, almost as big as New York City. That is enough to give the area 11 very reliably Democratic seats.

Population: 7,938,731

Demographics: 51% White, 21% Hispanic, 17% Asian, 6% Black, 5% Other

2008 Vote: Obama 73%, McCain 25%, Other 2%

Capital: San Francisco

Other Major Cities: San Jose, Oakland, Monterey, Santa Cruz, Santa Rosa, Arcata

Congressional Seats: 11

New Montana

At 51,687 square miles, New Montana is bigger than the eight smallest states combined (Rhode Island, Delaware, Connecticut, Hawaii, New Jersey, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Vermont). But that’s it for “big” here. The population is not big (for California standards, anyway), barely beating Rhode Island, nor is the diversity, allowing this region to be the only Republican of the 5 “Californias”.

Population: 1,146,333

Demographics: 83% White, 9% Hispanic, 8% Other

2008 Vote: McCain 54%, Obama 44%, Other 2%

Capital: Redding

Other Major Cities: South Lake Tahoe

Congressional Seats: 2

Central Valley

The nation’s fruit/veggie/nut basket varies politically, with Democratic centers in Sacramento and Fresno, and Republican strongholds in Bakersfield and the rural regions. The former was big enough to put Obama over the top here.

Population: 4,794,704

Demographics: 50% White, 33% Hispanic, 7% Asian, 6% Black, 4% Other

2008 Vote: Obama 51%, McCain 46%, Other 2%

Capital: Sacramento

Other Major Cities: Stockton, Modesto, Fresno, Bakersfield

Congressional Seats: 7

SoCal Desert

The SoCal Desert is also big in area and has slightly fewer people than L.A. Despite being very sparsely populated, the desert region is much more Hispanic and moderate, giving Obama a narrow win.

Population: 3,393,184

Demographics: 46% White, 39% Hispanic, 7% Black, 4% Asian, 4% Other

2008 Vote: Obama 51%, McCain 47%, Other 2%

Capital: San Bernardino

Other Major Cities: Calexico, Palm Springs, Riverside

Congressional Districts: 5

SoCal Urbana

Our journey ends at the SoCal megalopolis. Once a Republican stronghold, Republicans of yore counted on large margins in Orange (especially) and San Diego Counties, and narrow Dem margins or outright Republican wins in Los Angeles County to win the state and the presidency. Now, with increasing diversity and Obama having won this area at the same percentage that he won statewide, SoCal Urbana is about to become like NorCal Urbana, and eventually we will see a big beautiful strip along the California coast, as blue as the Pacific Ocean, along with some very boffo popular vote numbers for the Democrats. Hard to believe that Obama’s margin in California alone, 3 million, alone contributed to 30% of his 10 million margin nationwide.

Population: 16,608,696

Demographics: 41% White, 38% Hispanic, 11% Asian, 7% Black, 3% Other

2008 Vote: Obama 61%, McCain 37%, Others 2%

Capital: Los Angeles

Other Major Cities: San Diego, Long Beach, Santa Ana, Ventura, Santa Barbara

Congressional Districts: 21

CA-AD72: Results Liveblogging – Norby (R) wins

There is another state legislative special election tonight, in California’s 72nd State Assembly district, to decide the replacement for Republican Mike DuVall, who resigned last September after inadvertently bragging on a live microphone to a colleague about sexual exploits.

This district covers northern Orange County, including Brea and Yorba Linda. It is considerably Republican, though DuVall was held to 55% in 2008 against Democrat John MacMurray. MacMurray is running again, this time facing Republican Chris Norby. Green Party candidate Jane Rands is also in the running.

Times are Pacific Standard Time.

10:30 PM: All 197 precincts are in, and Norby is the winner, with 20,292 votes (62.9%) to MacMurray’s 10,018 (31.0%) and Rands’ 1,963 (6.1%)

10:00 PM: 84 (42.64%) precincts in; Norby 17,905; MacMurray 9,037; Rands 1,768.

9:30 PM: 57 (28.93%) precincts in, and the vote tally is Norby 17,260; MacMurray 8,729; Rands 1,719.

9:05 PM: 29 of 197 (14.72%) of precincts are now in, and little movement. Norby leads 62.25% (16,622) – 31.54% (8,421) – 6.21% (1,657).

8:05 PM: Absentee results are coming in. Norby leads 62.3% to MacMurray’s 31.5% and Rands’ 6.2%.

Results: OCVote and Sec. of State