Month: March 2007

The new Representatives from PA, elected with slim majorities, have a problem, but there’s a solution.

Problem:

We all know what’s happening with congress and fundraising.  It’s become a frequent news story: no sooner are members of the 110th Congress in office than they are required to raise millions for their reelection.  It’s just a question of math: raise as much as possible or you’ll lose, because your opponent will be doing the same thing.  I wrote about Jason Altmire’s experience (D, PA-4) earlier. 

This Tuesday, The Philadelphia Inquirer had a story on the problem Patrick Murphy (D, PA-8)faces:

There’s no such thing as a governing period now? It’s one campaign into the next.  It’s really two full-time jobs – being a congressman and being a candidate.

Jason Altmire and Patrick Murphy are just two vulnerable freshmen who need to raise money to stay in office, from day one.  To win the next election, they are already in full campaign mode, 24/7.  There’s a tension between having time for policy making and raising enough money.

Even though he won in 2006, Altmire was outspent almost 2 to 1.  Murphy raised $2.4 million, a huge sum, but Michael Fitzpatrick had over $3 million at his disposal and that race was decided by 0.6% of the vote (1,521 votes).  Clearly each had a strong message that worked with voters.  Still, with such slim majorities they would have a better chance of securing their reelection if they could spend the next 20 months legislating and communicating their work with constituents without the huge workload of raising several million dollars.

Meanwhile, the Inquirer highlighted another PA congressman’s dilemma.  Joe Sestak (D, PA-7) said:

I know fund-raising is important? but more important is outreach and getting people to know me.? Voters are like sailors.? They want you to look them in the eye, to grasp their concerns, to know you care.

As the paper points out, the former 3-star general knows how to lead and inspire, if he’s given the support and resources to do it.

Solution:

This morning the Philadelphia Daily News endorsed legislation for public financing of congressional elections introduced on Tuesday by a bicameral, bi-partisan team featuring Sens. Dick Durbin and Arlen Specter, and Reps John Tierney, Todd Platts and Raul Grijalva.

The Daily News, The Baltimore Sun, Adam B (on Daily Kos) and a host of other bloggers and journalists are endorsing public financing at the state and national level.  This is great news for the state of the nation, and we need to make sure the momentum grows.

Under public financing, the 2008 races could be spent talking to constituents door-to-door and at town hall meetings, instead of at high-dollar events with a handful of people who are already convinced to vote for them.  In fact, Durbin’s proposals encourage candidates to choose grassroots campaigning because they can qualify for public funds with small donations of $5 from average citizens.  Under public financing, Jason Altmire, Joe Sestak and Patrick Murphy would both have been given matching funds to level the playing field.  How many more voters could they reach in November 2008 with that kind of freedom?

(Bumped. – promoted by DavidNYC)

You are… my density.

The Swing State Project will be undergoing a server upgrade sometime tomorrow.  There’s a strong chance that we’ll be offline for about an hour during the mid-afternoon on Friday, although we don’t know for sure at what exact time the site will be inaccessible.  Sorry for the inconvenience, but like I said, we’ll only be gone for an hour.

Matt Singer over at Left in the West has a good summary of the latest Montana-At-Large House race rumors:

So what’s going on with the Congressional race here in Montana? Recently, I’ve been hearing three names over and over again:

• Bill Kennedy — Bill is the lone Democratic County Commission in Yellowstone County. I’m hearing that he’s definitely throwing his hat into this ring, but there’s been no announcement, so take it with the same grain of salt that you take anything in the political rumor mill. That said, Bill brings some strengths to this race. He represents a swing county that is Dennis Rehberg’s base. He lost the race for Secretary of State in 2004, but I hear he appreciates the reasons for that defeat and has vowed to not repeat the mistakes. If there are “factions” in the Democratic Party, Bill and I are from different ones. I worked for and supported Jon Ellingson for S.O.S. in 2004. Bill was John Morrison’s primary treasurer in 2006, while I supported Jon Tester. All that said, Bill has always struck me as a genuinely nice guy and good human being. With the right kind of campaign, he could be a formidable opponent to a huckster like Rehberg.
• Jim Foley — A former top aide to both Pat Williams and Max Baucus, Jim Foley has flirted with running for office for years. A recent Roll Call article said rumors were spreading that he was eyeing a race for Congress. Both the DCCC, which works on recruiting for these campaigns, and Jim himself refused to comment. That said, the story wouldn’t have mentioned him if someone hadn’t placed it and it wouldn’t have been placed for no reason. He’s probably feeling out the waters. His strength? A huge percentage of members of Congress are former staff people who understand the grueling work it takes to get there. His weakness? He’s been based for years in Missoula, so he’ll have to deal with the (often exaggerated) implications of being tied to the progressive hotbed of Montana, but he’ll do it with few of the benefits. Jim himself is not beloved by the Missoula ‘roots. Final Note: I don’t have this on any authority, so don’t quote me, but I’d guess Jim Foley would not jump into this race until after Rehberg explicitly says he’s running for re-election. Jim knows the tougher race Rehberg expects, the more likely he is to jump into the Senate race. Jim is loyal and he wouldn’t look to set up a tougher race for his former boss. Again, this is just my gut, so take it with a half a grain of salt.
• Dennis McDonald — The current chair of the Democratic Party in Montana, Dennis may find his background as a rancher and relative political outsider comes in more useful as a candidate than as a behind-the-scenes manager. Dennis is a founder of R-CALF, has deep connections across rural Montana, and could undermine part of Dennis’s base. He’d continue the successful formula that has worked for Montana Democrats — run a rancher or farmer who is good on gun issues and can be forceful on trade, keep the base unified, and win. What’s his biggest weakness? He’s never been a candidate, much less a statewide one in a high-profile race. And he doesn’t receive the natural political benefit of that, since as chair of a political party, he’s relatively easy to paint as a typical insider.

Here’s my dream scenario: an aggressive, credible Montana Democrat tosses his hat in the ring, giving Republican Denny Rehberg an extra incentive to vacate his House seat and take on Democratic Senator Max Baucus that same year.  Baucus beats back Rehberg, like he did in 1996, and Democrats have a serious shot to reclaim the House seat that Democrat Pat Williams held until 1996.  Two stones to kill one bird–that sort of thing.

Of course: A) this is extremely wishful thinking, and B) I’m sure that neither Max Baucus nor the DSCC would look upon such a strategy with good humor.  Baucus has what it takes to beat Rehberg, but I’m sure he’d prefer to take on someone a bit lower down the totem pole.

Race Tracker: MT-AL | MT-Sen

Everyone here should be aware of the following advertisments on YouTube smearing John Breaux.  He has not yet annouced, but the Louisiana Republicans are already prepared to bombard Louisiana citizens with falsehoods and distortions.

Here are the You Tube videos:

This is full of falsehoods.  Has anyone ever heard of the Breaux Act, an act that secures millions of dollars every year for coastal restoration and wetland protection projects?  And what of David Vitter’s citation of Breaux’s healthcare plan in his proposal to transform the Charity Hospital system of LSU?  I can go on and on.

This is just vacuous.  And since when is Jindal, who took money from DeLay, Abramoff and former Rep. now lobbyist Livingston? 

Jindal used these quotes in 2003, and he still lost to Blanco.

Republican Party of Louisiana video on television:

By the way, Jindal moved from Baton Rouge to Kenner in order to run for Vitter’s former House seat, LA-01.  Jindal is the carpetbagger, not John Breaux.

I hope this helps.  And let us use the comments to invalidate these claims and to perform opposition research on Piyush “Bobby” Jindal.

From the Rocky Mountain News:

Former Congressman Scott McInnis announced today that he will take a pass on the 2008 U.S. Senate race, clearing the way for what could be a wide-open contest for the Republican nomination.

McInnis, who was widely regarded as a front-runner for the GOP nomination, said he will remain involved in politics, but that the contest was not right for his family.

[…]

With the contest still more than a year away, Rep. Mark Udall, D-Eldorado Springs, is positioning himself to run on the Democratic side. McInnis’ decision is sure to fuel speculation among Republicans about who might run. Several names have surfaced, including former Rep. Bob Schaffer, retired Air Force Gen. Bentley Rayburn, Attorney General John Suthers.

While this isn’t quite the same bombshell as yesterday’s news from Louisiana was, it is still a game-changing event in Colorado.  McInnis, who had nearly $1 million sitting in his dormant House campaign account, was expected to be no slouch in his bid against Udall for Colorado’s open Senate seat.  The Republican field, at this point, is whittled down to two names: AG John Suthers and former Rep. Bob Schaffer, a very right-wing figure who lost a bitterly disputed primary battle with beer baron Pete Coors by a 39-61 margin.  Suthers is an NRSC favorite while Schaffer is a warm friend of Colorado GOP chair Dick Wadhams (yes, of George Allen ’06 fame).  As the Guru notes, the Colorado Republican grassroots seem less than impressed with Suthers.  I smell a food fight coming on!

The Colorado GOP will be running uphill from now until November 2008.

Race Tracker: CO-Sen

Whether it’s advocating for the importation of nuclear waste into her congressional district (which inspired one of my all-time favorite editorial cartoons), sending out infantile, racist campaign mailers, or embarrassing herself on the floor of the House of Representatives, you’ve got to wonder if Jean Schmidt was born with some of the worst instincts in American politics today, or if she’s simply trying to test the upper limits of endurance that her ruby red district (R+13) is capable of handling.

Add disregard for America’s veterans to the list:

Schmidt, a Clermont County Republican, decided to take “several hours” to travel to the hospital in Washington, D.C., to see the situation “first hand.”

Her conclusion?

“I found the situation at Walter Reed to be overblown by both politicians and the media.”

Unbelievable.

(Hat-tip to TPM.)

Race Tracker: OH-02

A lot of ink has been spilled in the past couple of days over this YouTube clip, which mashes up Apple’s 1984 Superbowl commercial with the image and voice of Hillary Clinton presiding over a numbed Orwellian dystopia.  But whatever–you’ve all seen it at least once by now, so I don’t need to describe it any further.  Let me share with you some commentary, though, from the National Journal’s Blogometer that really dogs my cats:

We don’t know whether the creative license taken by the creator of the “Hillary 1984” infringes on any of Apple’s intellectual property rights claims (some bloggers did not even know of the original ad), but there’s no doubt the official Obama logo on the hammer lady’s shirt infringes on Barack Obama’s copyright and trademark properties. Trademark in particular would be a strong claim since many viewing the ad could conclude the logo signals Obama’s endorsement of the message. YouTube policy on intel. property rights enables Obama to flag the video, and given the clear violation involved, YouTube would have to remove the video if Obama protested.

Currently the Obama campaign refuses to discuss the spot, only saying: “There is a lot of energy for Sen. Obama on the Web, in communities all over the country … and frankly, that energy will manifest itself in a lot of ways.” But what if those manifestations come on Swift Boat-style anonymous ads? Shouldn’t a candidate, especially one campaigning on ending ‘negativity‘ in politics, move to silence such ads when they can? We certainly Hope Obama isn’t playing a cynical game of allowing other to attack for him while he stresses how positive and uplifting politics should be.

For the record, I like the National Journal’s Hotline, and by and large I have a great deal of respect for the work they do.  Heck, back in the good old days when Hotline-on-Call actually bothered to write about House, Senate, and Gubernatorial races, I would link to them regularly on this blog.  Conn Carroll, the author of this particular piece and the editor of the Blogometer, is by and large a sharp guy who has a decent grasp on the dynamics of online activism.  But this note of “concern” misses the mark in so many laughable ways.

Carroll makes an attempt to equate this viral YouTube clip with the nasty “negative” politics that Obama has condemned in the past, and therefore he argues that Obama has only one choice: that he must to pull the plug on this wildly popular video by filing a legal complaint.  Carroll and others like him should get a grip.  For one thing, this is hardly the “Swift Boat-style” ad that Carroll implies it is.  Anonymous, sure, but this ad does not in any way possess the vile character defamation of a Swift Boat attack, nor the kind of crass “negativity” that Carroll puzzlingly attributes it with.  What’s so offensive about this ad to Carroll?  If anything, it complements Obama’s narrative about unlikely actors bucking the grain to achieve impossible results.  Heck, it’s pretty easy to view this ad and see it as “positive and uplifting”, depending on your perspective.  I’m not sure what Carroll’s “concern” is trying to accomplish here.  If this is an attempt to A) preemptively disarm Obama, and/or B) de-energize his netroots base, then it’s an extremely weak one.

From Maura at My Left Nutmeg:

A few weeks after having dinner with local party chairs and less than a week after former Rangers goalie Mike Richter was introduced to the Democratic Congressional caucus in DC, Richter has made calls to key players in the the district today to say he has decided not to challenge Shays next year.

I’m disappointed that things didn’t pan out for Richter, but since he didn’t have ties to the district, I think it would have been hard to beat the carpetbagger rap. I’d like to see him return to an area where he has real roots, work the scene for a few years, and then run. I think he would make a huge splash.

But as for CT-04, Maura tells us about the great candidate we’ve got who actually is running:

Jim Himes has done an impressive job of beginning to lay the cornerstones of  his campaign against Shays.  In the past two weeks, Himes has published great op-ed pieces against Shays in the  Greenwich Citizen and two days ago in the The Advocate (Stamford and Norwalk) and Greenwich Time.

More biographical details in Maura’s post, plus some info on how Himes is already kickin’ the tires and lightin’ some fires. With Chris Shays running up a serious borrowed-time debt, I think this race could shape up to be the marquee challenge in the Northeast this cycle.

Race Tracker: CT-04

From the Associated Press:

Gov. Kathleen Blanco, whose popularity plummeted after two hurricanes devastated Louisiana during her first term, will not seek re-election, according to a letter written by Blanco and obtained by The Associated Press.

“Today, I am announcing that, after much thought and prayer, I have decided not to seek re-election as your governor,” Blanco said in the letter, which was provided by a source in the Democratic Party on condition of anonymity.

Elected Louisiana’s first female governor in 2003, Blanco, a Democrat from the state’s Cajun country, had already drawn a half-dozen challengers for this fall’s election – including popular Republican U.S. Rep. Bobby Jindal, whom she defeated the last time with 52 percent of the vote. Former U.S. Sen. John Breaux, a popular Democrat, has said he will decide soon whether to enter the race.

With Blanco out and John Breaux presumably announcing his candidacy within the next few days, at the very least, Louisiana Democrats are buying an extra inning to hold on to the state.  At best, Breaux’s entry will be exactly what’s needed to throw a monkey wrench in hard-right Republican Rep. Bobby Jindal’s longtime gubernatorial ambitions.  Expect a lot of mud to be hurled at Breaux about how he’s “gone Washington” and lived out of state for a couple of years.  It won’t be easy, but I think we can all agree that Breaux’s chances, even with one hand tied behind his back due to his residency issues, are a heck of a lot better than those of a damaged Kathleen Blanco.

And another note: whomever ends up as the Democratic nominee in the Kentucky gubernatorial race should be grateful that major Republican resources will have to be split with at least one other state during the 2007 elections.

Race Tracker: LA-Gov