Month: March 2007

(It seems almost funny to say this to one of the most influential bulwarks of the netroots, but welcome to the blogosphere, ActBlue! – promoted by DavidNYC)

cross-posted at Daily Kos and MyDD

With as many friends as ActBlue has in the Democratic blogging community, it’s about time we joined the party with a blog of our own. So today we are launching our official ActBlue Blog where we look forward to bringing our donors, candidates, campaigns, fundraisiers, and bloggers interesting resources, analysis, tips, and other information to more effectively raise funds to elect Democrats!

Here’s just a sampling of things you can expect to see-

• Case Studies on some of the most creative ways ActBlue has been used
• Analysis on how and why people donate
• State Reports that highlight successful state level campaigns
• Tips & Tricks about ways to use ActBlue you may not have known about
• Page of the Week where we will highlight our favorite fundraising strategies
• Monthly ActBlue Zeitgeist to explore trends, patterns, and other cool stuff
• Major Series where we will explore how we are most relevant to your efforts in fundraising

This week I’ll be cross-posting some content from our blog as a way to introduce it to our friends in the online community. Tomorrow we’ll be releasing our version of a case study on the Secretary of State Project (which I was a blogger for last year before being hired by ActBlue). Later in the week I’ll introduce you to successful state level fundraising efforts by blogging communities and local organizations.

Our posts will strive to be informative and useful while maintaining the Democratic grassroots values which have driven us for the last two and a half years. We encourage you to subscribe to our RSS feed or sign up to receive new posts via e-mail to keep up with our latest posts (both available at http://blog.actblue.com).

Much of the growth for ActBlue and the netroots in the next 2 years will be at the state level. Hopefully I’ll be able to work with you to enable more successes in the statehouse while we work to expand our DC majority. If you have thoughts or questions, please leave me a comment!

It must be tough to be John Sununu, the Junior Republican Senator from New Hampshire who faces his first re-election test in 2008.  As if last November’s elections were bad enough for his longevity, with Granite State voters turfing Republicans up and down the ballot last November, the AP is giving him a few more reasons to worry (emphasis added):

New Hampshire’s independent voters – those unaffiliated with either political party – have doubled in number since 1992. They make up 44 percent of registered voters, more than Republicans or Democrats, and can vote in either primary, making them a potentially powerful force in 2008.

In a recent poll, 68 percent of undeclared voters likely to vote in the presidential primaries said they plan to vote for a Democrat. That’s a significant shift from 2000, the last election with contested races in both parties, when about 60 percent of the independents who turned out voted in the Republican primary.

Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, which conducted the poll, attributes the shift to three factors:

-Changing demographics have made New Hampshire more Democratic, like the rest of New England.

-Increasing opposition to the Iraq war has made voters generally more interested in Democrats as members of the party most likely to end the war.

-Candidates Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama have attracted enormous media attention on recent trips, raising the profile of the Democratic contest.

New Hampshire independents helped push Democrats Paul Hodes and Carol Shea-Porter over the finish line in their House races last November.  It’s becoming increasingly clear that these voters aren’t going anywhere, especially as the White House fails to offer any meaningful course change in Iraq.

(Hat-tip to SaucyIntruder.)

Race Tracker: NH-Sen

In his diary last Thursday, Rob broke the news that troubled incumbent Gov. Kathleen Blanco vowed to run even if former Sen. John Breaux (D) entered the race.  Breaux, a strong backer of her 2003 bid, issued a statement of support, saying that she’s “earned the right to run for re-election”.  At the time, we speculated that this was Breaux’s way of pulling back from a potential run while allowing Blanco to save face.

However, louisianagirl brings us something pretty eyebrow-raising: a John Breaux For Governor shell website.  It’s bare bones right now, and we can’t even be sure if it’s legitimate, although it looks pretty good for what it is.

It’s not much, but it’s enough to stir the embers under the LA-Gov rumor kettle yet again.

Race Tracker: LA-Gov

John Breaux may run, even if Blanco decides to remain in the race.  Visit this website for more details, especially if you want Breaux to run:

http://www.johnbreau…

The Louisiana Democratic Party now has an account with ActBlue for their state legislative races.  Visit their fundraising page at this website:

https://secure.actbl…

Bobby Jindal, who plans to run for Governor in 2007, is ranked 432 out of 435 in terms of effectiveness in Congress.  Visit this website for more details:

http://www.congress….

Progressive reformer and grassroots activist Deborah Langhoff, who missed the runoff in the special election on 10 March by 89 votes, plans to run for LA-HD 94 this November.  Here is an excerpt from New Orleans City Business:

LCRM race role

In the March 10 legislative election in District 94, four pieces of mail attacking leading Democratic candidate Deborah Langhoff arrived the day before Election Day.

The mail was produced by the Louisiana Committee for a Republican Majority, a new organization dedicated to electing a Republican majority in the Louisiana Legislature this fall. LCRM is heavily funded by GOP donors Boysie Bollinger and Joe Canizaro and supported by Sen. David Vitter, R-Metairie.

The mailers “exposed” Langhoff’s liberalism and quoted her as saying “I loathe Bobby Jindal.” Langhoff said the “hit pieces” hurt her vote total and kept her out of the runoff. For that reason, Langhoff will not endorse marketing representative Jeb Bruneau nor attorney Nick Lorusso, the two Republican runoff candidates. She plans to run in the fall against whoever wins the general election March 31.

UPDATE: BLANCO OUT

WWL TV New Orleans writes the following:

Governor Kathleen Blanco has requested television time tonight for a gubernatorial address that will be carried live on Eyewitness News at 6 p.m.. Sources tell Eyewitness News that Blanco will announce she is not seeking re-election.

(From the diaries – promoted by James L.)

[Cross-posted at my blog Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

About a month and a half ago, the Guru offered you his first Retirement Watch post, looking at any GOP Senators who might be considering retirement over a re-election bid for any number of reasons.  Here is the Guru’s first update of the Retirement Watch:

UP New Mexico’s Pete Domenici: Pajamas Pete was on the RW because of his advanced age (he is turning 75 this May) and questionable mental state.  Over the last several weeks, his role in the U.S. Attorney firing scandal has come to light, as well as his subsequent hiring of lawyers as a result.  Ethics complaints have been filed against him.  It is unclear what ramifications await Domenici, but it does suggest that this previously strong possibility for re-election has undermined his own chances with one very inappropriate phone call.  Should he retire (or otherwise not seek re-election), GOP Rep. Heather Wilson would have been the likely front-runner for the GOP nomination to replace him, but she apparently made an inappropriate phone call similar to Domenici’s, leaving super-conservative Rep. Steve Pearce as the go-to Republican, a man who is likely too conservative to win statewide in New Mexico.  So the NM-GOP’s likely choices are a politically damaged Domenici or a too-conservative-for-statewide Steve Pearce.  If a prominent Democrat steps up early to challenge Domenici, it may put enough pressure on him to opt for retirement.

UP Idaho’s Larry Craig: Since the last RW, voices both liberal and conservative have suggested that Larry Craig is not long for the Senate.  Whether the ID-GOP is trying to urge him out or are prepping a primary challenger is unclear, but the rumors are growing.

UP Virginia’s John Warner: Before the last RW, J. Warner had publicly gone back-and-forth as to where he was leaning between retirement and a re-election bid.  It has appeared that J. Warner would take another term if he didn’t have a tough challenge for it.  He has even planned a little bit of fundraising.  However, former Governor Mark Warner may be more interested in a 2008 Senate bid than previously thought.  Also, former Senator George “Macaca” Allen has held a meeting to gauge support for a 2008 Senate bid should J. Warner retire.  One wouldn’t think that Allen would hold such a meeting unless he had info that the likelihood of a J. Warner retirement was stronger than the 50-50 conventional wisdom.

EVEN Nebraska’s Chuck Hagel: Before the last RW post, questions existed as to whether Hagel would run for President, run for Senate re-election, run for both, or retire from politics.  Then, Hagel held a big press conference and answered none of those questions.  He did say that “he would actively raise money for a Senate re-election bid in 2008.”  It did come out that Hagel, before he served two terms in the Senate, made it crystal clear that he felt twelve years was enough and that he supported term limits.  Does he still support such limits?  (Probably not.)  However, GOP state attorney general Jon Bruning has already begun putting together an exploratory committee for a Senate bid.  Is he just getting a head start in case of a Hagel Senate retirement, or does he enjoy inside info?

EVEN Mississippi’s Thad Cochran: Cochran had been publicly undecided on a re-election bid, holding off on a decision until late 2007, as of the last RW.  Since then, he has planned some moderately aggressive fundraising, but he has also moved even further back his declared deadline for announcing his 2008 intentions and stated that being in the minority party would make him “less inclined” to run.

DOWN North Carolina’s Elizabeth Dole: Her age, health issues, and failure as NRSC Chair had led many to consider her a strong possibility for retirement.  Nevertheless, she says she is running for re-election and has begun aggressive fundraising.  Also, while polling for her has been pretty weak for her overall, they are polling her as the expected Republican in the race, indicating that the media outlets expect her to run again as well.

The race to unseat incumbent Gov. Mitch Daniels will begin this afternoon when local businessman Jim Schellinger files to “explore” a run for the Democratic nomination. From local political columnist Matt Tully:

Indianapolis architect Jim Schellinger has formally announced plans to run for governor as a Democrat. Many in the party have filed behind Schellinger and believe he is the party’s best hope of defeating Gov. Mitch Daniels in 2008. Schellinger will file candidacy papers this afternoon.

“I think today is a fitting day,” Schellinger said in a phone interview this morning. “Today is the Feast of St. Joseph — patron saint of labor and the family.”

Former House Speaker John Gregg has been another rumored candidate. But Gregg has said he will not run if Schellinger does. In a recent conversation, I mentioned to Gregg that many people believe a Shellinger-Gregg ticket would be a formidable one. He downplayed that, then said: “That has a nice ring to it. That has a very nice ring to it.”

Schellinger appears to have institutional support from the state Party, who has stated repeatedly that they want to avoid a contested primary. State Senator Richard Young had previous filed, but is not considered a strong challenge to a Schellinger candidacy. The wild card at this point is former Rep. Jill Long Thompson, who has stated on numerous occaisions that she is interested in running for the nomination herself. Over the weekend, she took her first swipe at the assumed Schellinger campaign:

Former U.S. Rep. Jill Long Thompson says she’ll decide soon whether to seek the Democratic nomination for governor.

And if she does, she said, she’ll leave her job as chief operating officer of the Washington-based National Center for Food and Agriculture Policy in order to run full time for Indiana’s top office.
Thompson, who lives on a Marshall County farm, served in Congress from March 1989 to January 1995. She made her only statewide run for office in 1986, when she lost to Republican Dan Quayle in the U.S. Senate race.

She was late getting into that race, as the party asked her to step in when its expected candidate, Louis Mahern, became ill. If she gets in this time, Thompson said she plans to begin early.
“If I make the decision to run, I’ll form a committee and begin well before summer,” she said.
Indiana Senate Minority Leader Richard Young Jr., D-Milltown, already has launched his campaign for governor. And Indianapolis architect Jim Schellinger also is weighing a run for the Democratic nomination.

Thompson said she recently met Schellinger. Her estimation?

“I think I would win,” she said with a laugh.

More updates to come as I am sure the local media will be giving attention to the Jim Schellinger announcement.

We will be covering the race over at Blue Indiana, and invite any and all to join the discussion over there as well.

The DCCC has posted this article from Roll Call entitled “Louisiana Lightning.”  I recommend everyone read it in its entirety, as the article discusses Republican and Democratic strategy for 2007 and 2008.  Here are some of the more interesting passages from the article:

Democratic officials believe that demographic changes in one of the South’s few remaining competitive states – for instance, many former New Orleans residents now live in Baton Rouge and Shreveport – could put Rep. Richard Baker’s (R-La.) seat within their reach.
“Baker is definitely on our radar screen,” DCCC spokesman Doug Thornell said. “We believe whether Baker runs for governor, Senate or seeks re-election, we believe he’s vulnerable.”
Baker’s 6th district is based in Baton Rouge, which swelled from 225,000 residents before Hurricanes Katrina and Rita hit in 2005 to somewhere between 275,000 and 325,000 today, according to local officials.

The DCCC also is casting a glance at Rep. Jim McCrery (R) in the 4th district.Neither district seems like particularly fertile ground for Democrats on paper – President Bush carried both districts with 59 percent of the 2004 presidential vote – but a lot has changed since then.
Shreveport just elected a black Democratic mayor in November, Democrats are quick to note.
McCrery represents a big chunk of the Pelican State’s western side in a district that extends from Northern Shreveport almost to Lake Charles.

Former Rep. Chris John (D-La.), who lost a 2004 bid for Senate, said he thinks Democrats can not only rebound but can even make gains in his home state.
“The DCCC has hit the ground running,” John said. “I was called [for advice] five weeks after the [midterm] election by the DCCC recruitment committee.”
John said committee officials are “just trying to get a real lay of the land … just trying to get a real macro-picture with what they’re dealing with.”
He also said that Rep. Rodney Alexander (R) always has to consider himself a target given that he switched parties just before the state’s filing deadline in 2004.

Who should we recruit for LA-04, LA-05, LA-06, LA-07?  Which elected officials in Louisiana do you believe have the capacity to unseat one of these incumbents?  Which prominent people in Louisiana do you believe should run?  I have a few in mind, and I will post them in the comments.  I look forward to everyone else’s suggestions.

Niki Tsongas, widow of Democratic presidential candidate Paul Tsongas, is one of the candidates for the special election for Congress in MA-5.

Congressman Meehan has agreed to take the Chancellorship at the University of Massachusetts Lowell, and as has been speculated on Blue Mass Group and other outlets, I am indeed running for the US Congress seat he is vacating.  As you also may know, it is the same seat my husband, Paul Tsongas held years ago.  The University of Massachusetts Lowell is truly fortunate, and I look forward to seeing the Congressman accomplish as much for the Commonwealth’s public universities as he did for the people of 5th.
http://www.bluemassg…

Campaign Web Site
http://nikitsongas.c…
Interview
http://www.leftinlow…

Okay, I didn’t manage to respond to David yesterday on DKos so I figured I’d write a detailed response diary here.

I had asserted that nearly all Senate pickups we’ve had in recent years outside of wave years are people who, at the time, had some affiliation with the DLC (not necessarily members, since the DLC doesn’t have members, per se, according to their response to my query on the subject several weeks ago)

Detailed, exhaustive proof of my point below.

1996-Ron Wyden, special election (seems to be a member, has written for a publication of theirs.
Tim Johnson (member link)
1998-
Chuck Schumer(?, has written for their Blueprint magazine, but no affiliation is clear)
John Edwards(was a founding member of the Senate New Democrat Coalition)
Evan Bayh (former DLC chairman)
2000-
Maria Cantwell(Link)
Debbie Stabenow (see above link)
Bill Nelson (see above link)
Jean Carnahan (Link
Tom Carper(current DLC Vice-chair)
Mark Dayton(not a member)
2002
Mark Pryor(member, Link
2004
Barack Obama(not a member)
Ken Salazar (longtime New Democrat; Link

So that’s between 10 and 12 out of 14. Like I said, generally only DLCers have won in non-wave years post-1994.

PC Load Letter? What the f*** does that mean?