Month: May 2007

Virtually all national polls show that pretty much any leading Democrat would wipe the floor with Mitt Romney. So this here poll from the Granite State sounds like Very Good News to me.

More below the flip….

According to a SurveyUSA poll of 551 likely Republican Primary voters, Mitt Romney gathered 32%, followed by Rudy Guiliani at 23% and John McCain with 22%. Fred Thompson finished fourth with 11%.

Romney leads by 9%, a result sure to please Mormons and ecumenical Christian conservatives, and horrify the more traditional anti-Mormon Christian fundamentalists that make up the Republican base. As expected, Rudy and McCain are neck and neck in the somewhat (small-L) libertarian state that went for McCain in 2000, but they are far behind the former Massachusetts governor. Obviously, it appears that downstate Republicans in the Boston media market are sweet on him.

Looking at the crosstabs, we start with what we already know – his lot is cast with the conservative wing of his party – and find a few interesting tidbits: he gets impressive support from union households, people who don’t own guns, and Generation Y.

In a poll of 589 likely Democratic Primary voters, Clinton gets 40%, Obama follows with 24%, while John Edwards trails with 22%.

Not much to report there. The last time Rasmussen polled Clinton vs. Romney nationally, Hillary was up by 9%. Obama led by 15%, and Edwards led by 26%. Heck, even Richardson leads Romney by 8%.

Now, I don’t think Romney has a shot outside of New England and the Mormon Belt (Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, maybe Nevada). But if Romney wins New Hampshire, that hopefully will make the GOP primary at least a 3 man race for that much longer. You have to wonder what things will be like in South Carolina – do they go for the “liberal”, the man they spurned in 2000, or the Mormon? Or do they go outside the top 3 and vote for Huckabee, Thompson, or Brownback? Anyone else thinking it depends which one hires the slimiest folks to pull tricks out of the Lee Atwater playbook?

I guess I should welcome myself back to being an SSP diarist after a hiatus of several months. I’ll keep watching those polls, ladies and gents.

More and more candidates continue to pour out of the woodwork for 2008 House races. 11 have confirmed or announced in the last 2 weeks alone!

Once again go and take a look at the 
2008 Race Tracker Wiki. & DCCritters.

Below the fold for all the news.
(cross posted at MyDD and Daily Kos)

288 races filled! Eleven in the last 2 weeks alone. This of course includes 233 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters.

But we also have 55 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.

So here is where we are at (GOP Districts):
Districts with confirmed candidates – 55
Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 4
Districts with rumoured candidates – 37
Districts without any candidates – 106

That 106 number looks disturbingly large but let me tell you that we are just humming along. I think that there is every chance that half of the GOP districts will have candidates by July 4th.

So without further ado here is the list:
1) The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:
AL-04,
AZ-01,
AZ-02,
AZ-03,
AR-03,
CA-04,
CA-24,
CA-26,
CA-41, [In the event of a special election but he will run in 2008 methinks!]
CA-48,
CT-04,
FL-01,
FL-08,
FL-09,
FL-13, [Either through the House of Reps investigation or Jennings has committed to another run.]
FL-15,
FL-21,
FL-24,
FL-25,
GA-10 [SPECIAL ELECTION JUNE 19TH],
ID-01,
IL-10,
IL-14,
IN-06,
IA-04,
IA-05,
LA-01,
MI-07,
MN-06,
MO-09,
MT-AL,
NE-02,
NV-03,
NJ-07,
NJ-11,
NM-02,
NY-25,
NY-29,
NC-03,
NC-08,
NC-09,
OH-02,
OH-07,
OH-15,
OH-16,
PA-03,
PA-15,
TX-04,
TX-08,
TX-10,
TX-13,
VA-06,
WA-08,
WI-01,
WY-AL,

2) The following 4 GOP held districts have candidates that are expected to run but are yet to confirm:
MD-06,
NJ-05,
OH-01,
OH-14,

3) We also have the following 37 GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!
AL-01,
AK-AL,
AZ-06,
CA-03,
CA-42,
CA-45,
CA-50,
CO-04,
DE-AL,
FL-06,
FL-12,
IN-04,
KY-05,
MI-09,
MN-02,
MO-06,
NE-03,
NV-02,
NJ-02,
NJ-03,
NJ-04,
NM-01,
NY-03,
NY-13,
NY-26,
NC-05,
OK-04,
PA-06,
PA-18,
TN-07,
TX-02,
TX-14,
UT-03,
VA-01,
VA-05,
VA-11,
WV-02,

4) And last but not least the following 106 districts have not a single rumoured candidate:
AL-02,
AL-03,
AL-06,
CA-02,
CA-19,
CA-21,
CA-22,
CA-25,
CA-40,
CA-44,
CA-46,
CA-49,
CA-52,
CO-05,
CO-06,
FL-04,
FL-05,
FL-07,
FL-10,
FL-14,
FL-18,
GA-01,
GA-03,
GA-06,
GA-07,
GA-09,
GA-11,
ID-02,
IL-06,
IL-11,
IL-13,
IL-15,
IL-16,
IL-18,
IL-19,
IN-03,
IN-05,
KS-01,
KS-04,
KY-01,
KY-02,
KY-04,
LA-04,
LA-05,
LA-06,
LA-07,
MD-01,
MI-02,
MI-03,
MI-04,
MI-06,
MI-08,
MI-10,
MI-11,
MI-12,
MN-03,
MS-01,
MS-03,
MO-02,
MO-07,
MO-08,
NE-02,
NY-23,
NC-06,
NC-10,
OH-03,
OH-04,
OH-05,
OH-08,
OH-12,
OK-01,
OK-03,
OK-05,
OR-02,
PA-05,
PA-09,
PA-16,
PA-19,
SC-01,
SC-02,
SC-03,
SC-04,
TN-01,
TN-02,
TN-03,
TX-01,
TX-03,
TX-05,
TX-06,
TX-11,
TX-12,
TX-19,
TX-21,
TX-24,
TX-26,
TX-31,
TX-32,
UT-01,
VA-02,
VA-04,
VA-07,
VA-10,
WA-04,
WA-05,
WI-05,
WI-06,

Praise to those states where we already have a full slate of house candidates – Arkansas, Connecticut, Hawaii, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Montana, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont and Wyoming. It would be great to see some more candidates bob up in Texas as it is the first state for filings to close (I think).

Please note that in some races others at the racetracker site have confirmed candidates that I haven’t. This is because to satisfy me a confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running. Others are not so rigorous.

It is also great to see a candidate in VA-06, one of 10 districts we did not contest in 2006!

We are well on track to beat the 425 races we contested in 2006.

*** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***

James is in town, visiting Gotham. What should he do while he’s here? Tell us about your favorite things in New York City in comments. (And the usual election chatter, too, of course.)

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Your guess is as good as mine at this point. Despite all of the signs showing Chuck Hagel likely pursuing a reelection bid, the news in the past week has been bizarre and contradictory. A prominent Republican donor has thrown himself into the conversation, Hagel’s making noises about an independent bid for President, and the chatter among Democrats is ramping up.

So, let’s take a look at the facts, the rumors, and everything in between.

What We Know:

– Chuck Hagel has scheduled a big-dollar fundraiser for May 18 to raise money for a Senate re-election campaign. Among those scheduled to appear at the fundraiser: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

– Chuck Hagel had a high-profile meeting with NYC mayor Michael Bloomberg on Wednesday.

– Bloomberg’s news service interviewed Hagel, who said he might consider running for President as an independent.

– Bruning is pushing back hard against Hagel in the press. It’s becoming clear that, should Hagel decide to run for reelection, he’s going to have powerful forces behind them. It might be too much for Bruning to overcome.

– Hagel is in deep trouble with Republicans, according to a favorability poll conducted by the Nebraska Democratic Party. That same poll shows Bruning with very low name recognition for a statewide officeholder, and a majority of Nebraskans favoring a timetable for withdrawal from Iraq.

What We’re Hearing:

– An influential Republican donor, Tony Raimondo, has started to make some noise about running for Senate. He says he would “probably not” challenge Hagel because of Hagel’s record on business. Not exactly a vote of confidence, but we’re pretty sure that Bruning’s the only one willing to risk political suicide by challenging Hagel in a primary.

– Remember how I said Bob Kerrey wasn’t going to run? I may have spoken too soon. No links, just rumors I’m hearing.

This race is growing increasingly bizarre, and Chuck Hagel is playing his cards very close to the vest right now. There’s no telling what direction he’s leaning, and his indecisiveness might just cost him the Republican nomination for Senate.

On the Democratic side, things are still difficult to read. Mike Fahey has long been considered the top candidate for the Democrats, but recently has started to make a move toward a reelection bid for mayor. Scott Kleeb is talking a lot about running for office again someday, but it’s not quite clear what office, or when. And Bob Kerrey said there was only a 1% chance that he would run. But, for what it’s worth, Kerrey still has an active campaign committee with $437,000 cash on hand.

The last several weeks in this race have been a gold mine for political junkies like myself. But, make no mistake, this is the most important race in Nebraska in 2008. Whether Hagel runs or not, there’s a strong possibility that the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate will be Jon Bruning. That’s simply a scary thought. There is no greater opportunity for Nebraska Democrats than this race. And if we fail to field a strong candidate, we fail as a party.

Last night rep Tom Davis, republican of Virginia appeared on Stephen Colbert’s “better know a district.”  This is important for two reasons.  First of all it increases Davis’ visibility amongst younger voters, and as a possible nominee for the 2008 senate seat it will certainly help.  Another thing is that he was the first republican congressman to appear on the show in a LONG time.  Usually they’re too afraid of looking silly to go on, not that he didn’t look silly.  Stephen insinuated Davis was having an affair with DC “rep” Eleanor Holmes Norton because Davis was in favor of Norton’s bill to give DC a seat in the House.  The question is whether this is Davis’ way of getting ready to run for John Warner’s seat should he retire, a sign he won’t run for the seat, or Davis just wanted to have some fun.

From DailyKos diarist VolvoDrivingLiberal:

Alabama Commissioner of Agriculture and Industries Ron Sparks, who is seriously mulling a challenge to Bush rubber stamp Jeff Sessions in 2008, will make his second appearance on Daily Kos today. Ron will post at approximately 6-630PM EDT this evening, and will be available for Q&A after posting.

This will be the Commissioner’s second liveblogging session on DailyKos.  You can see his first diary here.  I’d keep an eye out on Mr. Sparks’ profile in order to catch him live.  Unfortunately, I won’t be able to join in tonight, but I hope that you drop by and leave a question or comment for the man who just might paint Alabama a bluer shade in 2008.

Race Tracker: AL-Sen

UPDATE: Ron’s diary is here.

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This just in: the Nebraska Democratic Party has released some polling information on Chuck Hagel.

The key findings?

Today, Hagel earns a net negative job performance score statewide with 42 percent of voters saying he is doing an excellent-to-good job, while a majority, 50 percent, says fair-to-poor. Hagel’s job performance is most negative with his Republican base, while it is net positive among Democrats and solidly mixed among independents. Among conservative Republicans, Hagel’s professional marks have crumbled, with almost two-thirds, 61 percent, saying he is doing a fair-to-poor job as Senator.

And Bruning’s numbers:

The poll results show that Bruning’s name recognition in the state is below what would be expected for someone who ran for statewide office twice and who has used government funds to market himself through Public Service Advertisements. Of those surveyed, 59 percent identified Bruning, 90 percent identified Hagel.

However, in sharp contrast to Hagel, Bruning earns a solid 61-degree personal feeling thermometer rating among those who can rate him, with a slightly better than three-to-one warm-to-cool ratio, 35 percent have a favorable or warm opinion of him, while 10 percent have a cool opinion. Bruning earns a strong professional rating as well, with 40 percent saying he is doing an excellent-to-good job, while 29 percent say fair-to-poor. Unlike Hagel, Bruning’s job performance is solid among the Republican base, and independents too, while Democrats split evenly.

But here’s the kicker:

The poll results indicate that Bruning might want to change the theme of his campaign however, as the Iraq war continues to be fought. Among those Nebraskans surveyed, 51 percent favor a timetable for withdrawing from Iraq, while only 37 percent believe we need to give the President’s troop surge plan a chance to work. We believe those margins will continue to widen as the President’s policy plays out in the next several months.

From CQ:

A House task force will investigate allegations that voting machine errors contributed to the razor-thin victory by Republican Vern Buchanan (news, bio, voting record) in Florida’s 13th Congressional District.

Democrat Christine Jennings, who was declared the loser to Buchanan by 369 votes in last fall’s election, has contested those results with the House of Representatives.

A three-member House Administration Committee task force agreed by voice vote Wednesday to embark on a formal investigation.

The task force will examine what Jennings contends is a glitch in touchscreen voting machines that resulted in the disappearance of 18,000 votes in the congressional race.

I’m glad to see that the task force is moving ahead despite the sad loss of committee chair Juanita Millender-McDonald recently.

Speaking of which, CQ also notes that Rep. Bob Brady of PA (currently the acting committee chair) is likely to get tapped as Millender-McDonald’s permanent replacement, assuming he loses the May 15th mayoral primary in Philly (which looks likely). I can’t say that I’m inspired by this choice, as Brady is very much an old-school machine politician and the House Administration Committee performs an important oversight role. I’d prefer a reformer, but let’s see if Brady surprises us. And so far, the move to a formal investigation is the right one.