Month: June 2007

The race between Republican Congressman Jon Porter and Democrat Tessa Hafen in NV-03 (the suburbs of Las Vegas) has been one of the closest in the country with 48.46% for Porter and 46.57% for Hafen and Porter winning by less than 4,000 votes. Therefore, it’s not surprising that Democrats, both in DC and in Nevada, are looking for another serious challenger to Porter after Hafen, a former aide to Sen. Reid, declined to run again. Last week, another potential contender, 2006 gubernatorial nominee and State Sen. Min. Leader Dina Titus, took herself out of the running leaving the field with one announced candidate and two others seriously considering.

Thus far only Andrew Martin has announced his intention to run. He’s an accountant making his first run for elected office and would be Nevada’s first openly gay member of Congress. He’s fairly unknown, though, and I’m not sure if he’d be able to raise the funds necessary for a successful run. Another potential candidate is Larry Lehrner, a nephrologist, a former Republican who does not even live in the district but is nontheless taken very seriously because he’s married to Shelley Berkley, Congresswoman Shelley Berkley that is. A married couple representing two districts of one state in Congress, I don’t think we’ve had that before and I’m not sure we’d want that.

So, maybe it’s time for a waitress in Congress.

There has been speculation that Maggie Carlton, a state senator since 1999 is interested in running and this past weekend she confirmed this:

“My husband and I have been talking about it for a while,” she said. “We might try it. I don’t think it’s too far fetched.”

Carlton, a waitress at the Treasure Island resort, said she wants to talk it over with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and her supporters at home before she makes a decision.

“He’s my congressman, and I don’t like some of the things he’s done,” she said of Porter. “Maybe we need a waitress in Congress, not an insurance guy.”

Yup, you read that right, a waitress. Nevada’s legislature is only in session for four months every other year, meaning legislators have to keep their job after being elected and work to make a living. Wonder how Maggie Carlton does it? So did NPR a year ago. You can listen to their profile of Maggie Carlton here.

Maggie Carlton represents the working people of Las Vegas and Nevada in the State Senate. One co-worker says:

We got somebody speaking for us on a higher level. […] She’ll bring up the questions that other senators probably wouldn’t bring up because they don’t know about nine-to-five working people. […] If Maggie wouldn’t be doing it who would do it?

So, you could argue she’s too valuable in the State Senate and should stay put. However, term limits were introduced in Nevada which means she cannot stand for re-election in 2010. Having her speak for the nine-to-five people in Congress might not be such a bad idea.

How could she win? We know the district is competitive, Porter is vulnerable. She’d have one distinctive advantage: the Culinary Union Local 226 – the most powerful union in Nevada, so powerful that the Culinary’s endorsement might swing the presidential contest in the Nevada Caucus next year. Maggie Carlton is not only a member of the Culinary Union and a Culinary Local No. 226 Shop Steward, she says she was actually encouraged to run for the State Senate by the Culinary:

They wanted someone who clocked in for a living and who understood: running to PTA meetings, trying to do the girl scout thing, getting kids to school on time, all those types of things.

Maggie Carlton has been doing her day-job for 30 years now, maybe it’s time she put down that 40 pound tray not just for 120 days every other year but permanently and take her experience to Washington.

Cross-posted from Turn Tahoe Blue.

From the Boston Globe:

Former New Hampshire Governor Jeanne Shaheen will decide in September whether to enter one of the country’s most closely watched US Senate races, her husband says.

Shaheen’s husband, Billy, told the Globe she will make up her mind in September because, “it is only fair to those currently running that she have her mind made up either way”.

This is the first time either Shaheen had given such a firm deadline for a decision.

I would have preferred a slightly earlier decision by Shaheen, because her noncommittal status will undoubtedly depress fundraising for the current field–funds that will be crucially necessary in order to beat Sununu next year should Shaheen take her name out of consideration.  But the more buzz I hear from the Beltway and elsewhere, the more I’m convinced that Shaheen is really interested in making a race of this.  And with polls like these showing her with a 10-point lead on Sununu, the opportunity to whallop another Bushleaguer has got to appear tempting for the Governor.

Mark your calenders.

(Hat-tip: Dean Barker at Blue Hampshire)

From the AP:

A state appellate court ruled Monday that Christine Jennings has no right to examine the programming source code that runs the electronic voting machines she says malfunctioned in her southwest Florida congressional race.

The three-judge panel said Monday Jennings did not meet the “extraordinary burden” of proving a lower court was wrong to deny her request last December.

Jennings already had shifted focus to a congressional task force assigned to sort out her election dispute with Republican Vern Buchanan, the state-certified winner of the race by only 369 votes. A spokesman said she has no immediate plans to appeal Monday’s ruling.

Don’t worry, sports fans – this is hardly the end of the game:

“I think the only important activity right now is what is going on in Congress, since they have the ultimate authority in this matter,” Jennings’ spokesman David Kochman said. “They are also moving quicker than the court ever has. In terms of access to the source code and machines, the task force made it clear last week that won’t be a hurdle. They have subpoena power.”

Exactly right. What has taken the glacial Florida courts half a year to decide not to do, Congress can (and likely will) do in an afternoon. While it would have been nice if the courts, rather than Congress, wound up granting access to the ES&S source code, Republicans would have cried “politics” no matter what. And like the spokesman says, now that the legal proceedings are essentially moot, things can move a lot faster.

This has the potential to be really fascinating – our first-ever true window into the “black box” of voting machine source code. Congress’s experts will be able to look at the actual guts of what animates ES&S’s electronic ballot boxes. Even if the eventual findings don’t prove favorable to Jennings’ specific case, we’ll have a chance to know once and for all whether the voting machine companies’ claims that their products are secure and accurate are for real.

The Hill is reporting that Norm Coleman may be facing a primary challenge from one of his former advisors.

http://thehill.com/l…

Minnesota is a Democratic-leaning state and has no real love for the war, but if this is a strong enough primary challenge, Coleman will have to move to the right on the war in order to win a Republican primary, this is defintely a good sign.

What have you got?

The tenth district of Texas was once a liberal bastion held by such notable Democrats like Lyndon Johnson and Lloyd Doggett until Tom DeLay’s redistricting scheme diluted the seat’s liberal bent by stretching eastward and incorporating some very conservative areas of the Greater Houston region.  Under the current lines, it has a PVI of R+13.  However, the trend is positive: while Gore scored only 34% in this district in the 2000 Presidential election, the Democratic performance improved to 38% four years later.

But the real story here is Republican Mike McCaul’s performance in the 2006 election.  After going unopposed by Texas Democrats in 2004, McCaul’s share of the vote sagged dramatically last year:

Mike McCaul (R): 55%
Ted Ankrum (D): 41%
Michael Badnarik (Libertarian): 4%

McCaul’s 55% was easily the weakest performance from a Republican incumbent in Texas other than Henry Bonilla.  On top of that, Michael Badnarik, the Libertarian Presidential candidate in 2004, outspent fightin’ Democrat Ted Ankrum by a hefty $400k margin and only walked away with 4% of the vote to show for it.  Numbers like that would indicate that the Democratic base is pretty solid in this district.

Now, what could be the source of McCaul’s weakness?  Is it possible that lingering resentment over the mid-decade redistricting carried over into 2006?  Looking at a few of the other beneficiaries of the scheme who were freshmen during the 109th Congress, Representatives Poe, Gohmert, and Conaway all improved on their 2004 margins of victory, although Poe & Gohmert faced sitting incumbents in 2004 and Conaway was unopposed last year.  Rep. Marchant (TX-24) did slip a little over the two years, but only by 4 points.  No matter how you slice it, 55% is a terrible performance for an incumbent Republican in a district that delivered 62% of its vote to Bush in 2004, even in a rocky year like 2006.  There is a weakness here, revealed by Ankrum’s challenge, that perhaps an aggressive challenge can exploit.

One such challenger has already stepped up: Democrat Dan Grant, an international development worker who has worked on USAID projects in Bosnia, Kosovo, Afghanistan, and Iraq.  (He even posted a diary here last week.)  I don’t know enough about Grant and his organization to tell whether he’d be a serious nuisance to McCaul, but he has managed to raise nearly $25k on Actblue in just a week or two, a year and a half from election day–and that’s more than one quarter of what Ankrum spent during his entire campaign.  He could be a guy–and this could be a district–worth keeping an eye on.

Race Tracker: TX-10

PS: There is another Democratic candidate in this race: Larry Joe Doherty.  He looks a little… flavorful.

(The circus continues in Nebraska. – promoted by James L.)

Tony Raimondo is getting serious about entering the contest for the Republican nomination:

Raimondo, a Republican and the chairman of Behlen Manufacturing Inc. in Columbus, said Wednesday that he was working to assemble a campaign, including interviewing prospective campaign managers. He said he hoped to have everything in place by August.

He has not established an exploratory committee or started raising funds.

Raimondo reiterated that it was unlikely he would run against Sen. Chuck Hagel, R-Neb..

Hagel has said he will decide on his political future later this year.

Raimondo, who was in Washington for meetings of the National Association of Manufacturers, said he believed that Hagel would pass on seeking re-election.

“That being the case, I will be running,” Raimondo said.

This is a significant development – a sign that Hagel’s being pushed out of the race. With former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub stating that he may run regardless of whether or not Hagel’s in the race, it’s becoming clear that the Republican field would rather not have Hagel in the race. Whether or not Hagel cares, it’s reflective of Nebraska Republicans’ attitude right now.

It seems likely, given the timeframes, that we’ll get Hagel’s final decision in the next two or three months – and shortly after that, a strong Democratic challenger will emerge.

Last Friday evening, West Virginia State Sen. John Unger held an Eastern Panhandle campaign kick-off event in Martinsburg, W.Va. (lots of pictures here). After reading so much about Unger–both good and bad–from fellow Democratic activists and Republican concern trolls trying to Draft Anne Barth, I really didn’t know what to expect. Maybe all that ink-spilling had lowered my expectations… whatever the reason, I was pleasently surprised. It was an impressive start for his campaign for WV-02.

Follow below the break for my full report.

A late start

We all waited a while for Rep. Alan Mollohan (WV-01) to arrive from D.C. [As any of us who regularly drive from DC can tell you, arriving at Martinsburg at 5:30pm on a Friday afternoon is a tricky driving task!] I did heard Mollohan made it later in the evening for the Berkeley County Democratic Woman’s Dinner (at the same venue).

The event opened and closed with a prayer delivered by a local clergy (I didn’t catch the name). Perhaps because I grew up in the bible belt, this outward display of religion doesn’t bother me. More importantly, these prayers offered were prayers of inclusion, not exclusion. [Even though the religious beliefs of this progressive appear to differ (quite a lot!) from those of Unger, many of our core values overlap. In a 2005 profile he named his heroes as Mother Teresa, Gandhi, Jesus and Thomas Jefferson.]

On to Unger’s speech

He’s starting with a stump speech that is already better than many politicans ended their 2006 campaigns with. I rate the content as very good (I’ve minor quibbles I share below) and the delivery is… well… let’s just say it’s still early in the campaign season. Unger was very comfortable in front of this crowd, he can speak from his heart, and he showed potential for a great speech. Once Unger has this material memorized–after he throws away his notes and just talks to the audience, he’s going to have a top notch stump speech.

About the content

The theme for his speech is “we can do better”. He spoke frequently of working for “common good.” The key issues he stressed are: universal access to affordable health care, improved educational opportunities, milestones / removing troops from Iraq, veteran’s support, infrastructure upgrades and United States energy independence.

Here are some lines that stood out in particular (not exact quotes):

– America has not kept its promise to its people… let’s return government to the people.

– We can import food from communist China, import cooking oil from a dictatorship in Venezula so why can’t we import affordable prescription drugs from a democracy in Canada.

– We’re building schools in Iraq, we need to build them here.

– Removing troops from Iraq equals a healthy Iraq.

– If not now, then when? If not us, then who?

I really like the one about “removing troops from Iraq = a healthy Iraq.” The line about importing drugs is great populist rheteroic, too. Considering the only phrase in the whole speech I found a little off was calling Venezula a dictatorship, I’d say he did quite well. Even with that, it’s still a great line.

Some minor quibbles

As many others have said around the progressive blogosphere, the Democratic Party is too slow in realizing that the Iraq War is the issue of the 2008 election (just as it was for the 2006 election). I liked what I heard Unger say about Iraq, it was just buried a too far into the speech. He can say the same things more prominently. [If he truly listens as he tours the district, he’ll figure this out on his own. After all, “getting out of Iraq” was probably the loudest applause line on this night.]

The electorate wants out of Iraq. This is a huge vulnerability for incumbent Republicans. Despite anything he might hear otherwise from the DCCC back in Washington, this is one place not to be timid.

My second quibble has to do with energy independence. I have some concerns about that framing of energy policy. I’ll reserve judgement until I know more details about Unger’s positions. [Unger was sole sponsor of legislation that recently created a Department of Energy in West Virginia, so he’s certainly well-informed on the topic.]

In all, there’s a lot to like

Unger comes across as authentic in his compassion for those who are less fortunate in society. Unger comes across as authentic as someone who believes that government can help promote the common good. His signature issues of universal health care, education, getting out of Iraq, veterans, our nation’s infrastructure and energy indepenence are winning issues in WV-02 that progressives can also rally around. He is running on issues of inclusion, not division.

Yes indeed, John Unger is showing us “we can do better”.

No doubt there will be at least one primary challenger in this race. The allure of press coverage for a Congressional seat is too much to keep challengers at bay. Still, anyone with serious political aspirations will think twice before taking on an impressive candidate with strong support from fellow West Virginia Democrats (and the DCCC). Unger is going to be a formidable candidate.

Thankfully for all of us in WV-02, State Sen. John Unger is already showing that a Democrat does indeed have a prayer to win this seat in 2008.

Cross-posted at West Virginia Blue

Since we’re on a roll with news from state legislative races (well, two posts is unusual, so I’ll call that “a roll”), Maine Democrats are celebrating a special election win last night, where Democrat Deane Jones beat Republican Penelope Morrell by 1,469 to 1,180.  With this pick-up of a previously Republican seat (held by Rep. Abigail Holman until her untimely death in a skiing accident this past April), Maine Democrats now enjoy an 89-60-2 margin of control in the state House.

Coming off a very successful 2006 election, where Republicans lost 15 seats in the House, Maine Democrats are keeping up the momentum–momentum that can hopefully help Tom Allen launch an aggressive challenge to war hawk Joe Lieberman’s favorite Republican conspirator in the Senate: Susan Collins.

I just got an email from the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee passing on the good news that Democrats in Maine flipped a State House seat from red to blue in last night’s special election.

I’m happy to announce that Democrat Deane Jones won a special election for a vacancy in the Maine House yesterday. This was a pickup for Democrats. It brings our majority to 89-59 with 2 independents.