Month: June 2007

Well-known Georgia populist firebrand and former state legistlator Wycliffe “Wyc” Orr is seriously considering a run against the incompetent and disgraceful Bush rubber stamp, Saxby Chambliss.

Orr, a north Georgia trial lawyer and military veteran, is well-respected throughout the state and is acknowledged as one of the best stump speakers among all Georgia politicians. A group of activist Georgia Democrats, concerned about the various weaknesses of the current 3 declared candidates, is strongly urging Wyc to run and has launched a “Draft Wyc” organization to support his candidacy.

Get an idea of Wyc’s stump strength in the video on the flip…

Orr, in a recent radio talk show appearance, has called for immediate, no-nonsense withdrawal from Iraq. He is regarded as a strong populist and exudes a persona that reminds one of Alabama’s Ron Sparks.

Read more about Wyc Orr and sign the draft petition here. There are also a number of video’s of Orr’s speeches on the site.

Georgia Democrats badly need an aggressive firebrand populist with great stump skills to challenge Chambliss, and Orr just may be the person to fill that bill. Two of the three declared candidates have major weaknesses, while the third and most viable of the three currently announced candidates lacks experience:

Vernon Jones, DeKalb County Chief Executive, Democrat who allegedly supported Bush in 2004. Long saddled with the reputation of a somewhat hedonistic private life, Jones has more baggage than can be found in the belly of a Boeing 777. He has only raised $18,000 thus far, an indication that he has little support.

Dale Cardwell, former WSB TV investigative reporter, is essentially a right wing Republican masquerading as a Democrat. His positions on various issues range from Republican-talking-point to just-plain- crazy…he wants to abolish the IRS for example. For more on Cardwell, his site is here.

Rand Knight, an environmental scientist, is the most appealing of the currently-declared candidates. A new face on the scene, his positions on issues are very much in sync with progressive Dem values. However, he is inexperienced and a marginal stump speaker. IMO, he is extraordinarily intelligent, but does not seem to have to capacity to communicate in such a way that the average Georgian would understand. His website, which can be found  here, is impressive but the verbiage is just too verbose. A Knight candidacy would be a good thing in that it would help him gain some seasoning as  campaigner, but in the big picture he’s not the right guy to face Chambliss at this time.
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Orr has great potential appeal. He has an impeccable reputation in terms of personal integrity, is a solid populist and life-long Democrat, is a veteran, and kicks ass as a speaker. Keep your eye on Wyc…he just may be the right guy to knock off Chambliss.

Crossposted at Daily Kos.

What have you got?

Sorry for the relative dry spell around SSP lately.  I just started up a new job this week with rather long-ish hours, but I’m still going to work blogging into my schedule.

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Discussion Items:

• MN-06: Dean Barkley, the former interim Senator from Minnesota following the death of Paul Wellstone in 2002, is openly mulling a challenge to wingnut Republican Michele Bachmann.  Barkley, a three-time Senatorial candidate under the Independence Party banner, says that he would only want to run in a two-way race as an independent with tacit DFL support.  Well, Barkley, who played the spoiler in two successive Senate contests MN-06 in 1992 and in the 1994 Senate race, is no Bernie Sanders.  His kind words for a Fred Thompson Presidency are not exactly inspiring, either.
• TN-Sen: DailyKos diarist R o o k has a great piece up commenting on the news that Mike McWherter, son of the popular former Governor Ned McWherter (1987-1995), is considering a run against Republican Lamar! Alexander next year.  I’d like to learn more about a potential McWherter candidacy, but I am heartened to hear that this low-radar race may not be given a pass.
• WY-Sen-B: I don’t know if the phrase “the best of a bad lot” is really appropriate here, because Wyoming’s newest Senator, John Barrasso, seems like just another far-right Coke bottle Republican, fresh from the assembly plant.  Still, it’s hard to fault Freudenthal for not picking an Abramoff crony or a bitter rival in Barrasso’s place.

Anzalone-Liszt, the firm that revealed Robin Hayes’ vulnerability against underdog Democrat Larry Kissell in a surprising poll last May, is back with perhaps the first publicly-leaked House race match-up polls of the 2008 cycle.  And boy, is it a doozy:

Robin Hayes (R-Inc.): 45
Larry Kissell (D): 43

Re-Elect Hayes: 40
Vote For Someone New: 43

Kissell, who came within 329 votes of upsetting the CAFTA-loving Hayes in 2006 despite being outspent by $779k to Hayes’ $2.48 million, won’t be as starved for funds in 2008, if DCCC Chair Rep. Chris Van Hollen has anything to do with it:

We are fully committed to this effort going forward. We think this is a winnable race. We think the fact that we came so close, that Larry came so close last time is a clear indication that Robin Hayes is vulnerable. We think he remains vulnerable. […]

I told Larry, that come next spring when we put together our Red to Blue program, that this race will be on that list from the start and we will continue obviously to work with the campaign going forward.

That was part of a transcript of a conference call between Kissell, Van Hollen, Marc Silverman of Anzalone-Liszt, and potential donors posted on BlueNC.  Also discussed during the call was the broad name recognition gap that Hayes holds over Kissell.  Despite being known to only 34% of voters (compared to 84% for Hayes), Kissell trails the incumbent by a statistically insignificant margin.  Compare Kissell’s 34% recognition to the 19% that Democrat Paul Hodes posted in May 2006 (also his second–and successful–crack at the bat in a House race), and you can see why Kissell is ahead of the curve while still showing a lot of room to grow.  With a boost of new resources, Kissell can introduce himself for the first time to a lot of voters that his underfunded grassroots campaign couldn’t reach last year.  The caveat is, as Markos notes, Hayes will take Kissell’s challenge much more seriously at a much earlier starting point in the cycle.  So expect Uncle Pennybags to dip into his own coffers somewhat heavily.  And expect the NRCC to come packing heat.

BlueNC has much, much more.

Race Tracker: NC-08

Public Policy Polling is out with another poll.  This one is huge, with a lot of results for us to talk about.

But, before I dive into details, check out this quick insert from the Indy Weekly of the Triangle:
 

Our tracking signals indicate that Dole rarely travels to North Carolina, whereas Miller seems to be in perpetual campaign motion there. And Republicans like Dole are out of favor for sticking so close to President Bush, are they not? We thus conclude that Miller would beat Dole like a tympanic skin-a drum, I believe you call it.

Ok, now that I have your attention, to the poll.  This poll (link at bottom) consisted of 800 likely voters pulled from the voter rolls.

First, lets hit on the big and simple numbers.
Bush’s approval in North Carolina is 37%, with 59% Disapproval.

This number has been fairly consistent for a while.  If anything this number is worse than it has been in the past.

Next up is Elizabeth Dole.

This poll has Dole’s approval rating at 48% approval and 40% disapproval.  Her numbers have been fluctuating at around +5%.  She might have grabbed a point or two because she killed the immigration bill (first thing she has accomplished in months), but I think this is just margin of error fluctuations.

Just for kicks PPP did a matchup poll between Dole and each of the Democratic candidates for Governor.  Dole leads Lt Gov Beverly Perdue 46 to 37.  Dole leads Treasurer Richard Moore 45 to 34.

Neither of them will actually run, but its interesting because this is matchup poll #6 where Dole has polled below 50%.

From the other side of the aisle, Right Wing think lie tank Civitas has a poll out showing slightly different results.  I wont link to their poll unless I have to, for the same reason I wouldnt link to Rush Limbaugh or Bill O’Reilly.  However, I will talk about their results.

I do not trust these results, as they are normally as Republican friendly as possible without the group losing their non-profit status.  However, with that caveat, their poll results are really good for us.  They give Dole the same 48% approval rating, but with an impossibly low 28% disapproval.  They also show 22% with no opinion.  They also polled for Brad Miller, showing him with 14% approval, 10% disapproval, 38% no opinion and 38% dont know his name.  Considering Brad has only been in Congress since 2002, this is not too surprising.  It might be a little low, but is about what I expected his numbers to be.  If he is going to beat Dole it will just be a question of whether he can raise the money needed to get his name in front of people.

With all of those caveats, they polled Dole v Miller, and got 46% Dole 31% Miller.  So, a Republican friendly poll against a guy with 24% name ID, and they still cant give her numbers above 50%.  She is in BIG trouble.

Ok, back to the Public Policy Poll.  They did matchup polling between Hillary, Obama, Edwards and Rudy McRomneyson.

Against Rudy
Giuliani 47% Clinton 43%
Giuliani 46% Obama 42%
Giuliani 45% Edwards 46%

Against Romney
Romney 41% Clinton 47%
Romney 40% Obama 44%
Romney 37% Edwards 51%

Against McCain
McCain 44% Clinton 45%
McCain 45% Obama 44%
McCain 40% Edwards 48%

Against Thompson
Thompson 46% Clinton 43%
Thompson 45% Obama 40%
Thompson 43% Edwards 47%

In the crosstabs, Edwards bleeds off more Republican support than either Obama or Clinton.  But, his real strength is amongst independent voters.  Obama does the worst job of holding onto Democrats, but he is buoyed by his support amongst independents.

What is really interesting is the similarities amongst black voters for all the candidates.  Personally, I think these polls might be even better news for us than seem.  Does anyone really believe that Obama would lose up to 20% of black voters to McCain?  Does anyone really believe that on election day 24% of black voters will choose Rudy over Edwards?

All these Republicans have way too many skeletons for that to happen, meaning you can probably safely add 2-3 points to every Democratic result.

Some other thoughts on cross tabs.
Dole’s support amongst women is still much healthier than her support amongst men.  This is something that can be changed just by focusing on her actual record on “women’s issues”. 

Our numbers amongst younger voters are simply astonishing.
Amongst voters between the ages of 18 and 29:
Edwards leads Romney 64 to 33! 
Obama leads McCain 61 to 33!

There is a lot more to swallow, check out the poll for yourself.  There are 12 pages (PDF) of statistical goodness.

A quick personal note to end the diary.  Thank you to the people who donated to Brad Miller yesterday.  The Draft page raised over a 1000 dollars yesterday with donors from Kentucky to NC, and donations from $20.00 to $1000.08  Thank you a thousand times over to those people who put their money where their mouth is.

The folks over at Tondee’s Tavern are saying that Democrat James Marlow has conceded the race for Georgia’s 10th Congressional District. But if you look at the statement they actually link to, Marlow doesn’t quite do that. Rather, he says:

We will watch as the final official returns come in, and once all of the votes are in, we will make an assessment about whether further action is appropriate.

That’s because state law permits Marlow – who trails Republican Paul Broun by 187 votes in the official count – to seek a recount so long as the margin separating the two is less than 1%. Right now it’s 0.4%, but that number is only likely to increase, given that the few outstanding precincts are almost all in counties which favored Broun. And no matter what the final tally, there’s no reason to believe a recount could make up the difference.

Ultimately, this is a pretty frustrating outcome, given that two other lesser-known Democrats in the race took 8% between them – more than enough to have put Marlow comfortably in second place. Then again, an overall Dem performance of 28.3% is pretty appalling, given that even John Kerry managed to take 35% in this district. (Of course, in a low-turnout special election, this isn’t much of a surprise.) So even if Marlow were to advance to the run-off, it’s difficult to envision any way in which he could win. Repeating that Hackett magic is hard.

[Cross-posted at my blog Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

2008 could be a record year for unexpected Republican primaries. Whether or not strong contenders emerge, Republican primaries are, of course, expected in states from South Dakota to New Jersey, states with Democratic Senate incumbents but a handful (or more) of ambitious Republicans itching to take their shots. And, of course, there will be notable Democratic primaries ranging from Minnesota to Georgia. But the number of unexpected potential Republican primaries for Senate in 2008 is running high.

There are a number of reasons for this. One reason, illustrated more clearly in the Republican Presidential primary, is general discontent by Republican voters of Republican candidates and officials.  Another reason is that Republicans are particularly divided over the issue of immigration reform. Another reason could be that, in many races, the incumbent Republican simply isn’t conservative enough for the base.  Though several of these states with unexpected potential Republican primaries are traditionally red states, the emergence of a viable Democratic challenger in many of these states makes the possibility of a primary all the more daunting for Republicans.

(Much more below the fold.)

Lack of Leadership

Kentucky: Many elements of the conservative base are growingly unhappy with Mitch McConnell’s helming of Senate Republicans, and none have been more vocal than the conservative blogosphere across the country, many of whom have focused on their discontent with McConnell’s support for Bush’s bipartisan immigration reform attempts.  Further, in Kentucky, 1995 GOP gubernatorial nominee Larry Forgy, a loyalist to corrupt incumbent Governor Ernie Fletcher, has hinted that he would consider or support a primary challenge to McConnell if he felt McConnell did not do enough to help Fletcher’s embattled re-election bid.  While McConnell enjoys a hefty bankroll, the power of his political machine has diminished as demonstrated by Anne Northup’s gubernatorial primary defeat to Ernie Fletcher.  If a Republican primary challenger sapped significant resources of McConnell’s, he could find himself very vulnerable to a viable Democrat, say either 2003 Lt. Gov. nominee Charlie Owen or state Attorney General Greg Stumbo.

Immigration Reform

South Carolina: Primarily driven by anger over Lindsey Graham’s support for immigration reform, the South Carolina conservative netroots have begun voicing their displeasure with Graham and desire for a primary challenger.  Dump Lindsey.org and Dump Lindsey Graham express South Carolina conservatives’ preference for a replacement for Graham.  As Hotline’s Blogometer reported:

A new project launched by conservative bloggers promises a primary challenge for any GOP Senator who votes for the [immigration reform] proposal. The most prominent in that field? None other than McCain supporter Lindsay Graham (R-SC). So far, there have been rumblings of a primary challenge for Graham but no candidate yet. If the revived immigration plan comes up to a vote, will Graham’s yea or ney be the triggering mechanism?

This project is called The Payback Project and it seems to have successfully spooked Saxby Chambliss of Georgia into distancing himself from the immigration reform legislation.  If Graham continues his support for the immigration reform legislation, expect talk of a primary to intensify.  After that, Democrats still need to come through with a viable Senate candidate.

Not “Conservative” Enough

Oregon: For more than a decade, Gordon Smith has been Oregon’s only statewide Republican.  He has achieved this by presenting himself as a moderate who can voice Oregon’s concerns to the Republican leadership in the White House and Congress.  But with the Republican brand inreasingly tarnished, and with Smith’s back-and-forth on Iraq demonstrating his lack of integrity, he is coming off as too far to the right for Oregon moderates but also too fiscally irresponsible for conservatives.  As such, 1998 GOP gubernatorial nominee Bill Sizemore has hinted that he would consider a primary challenge to Smith.  While Democrats have had a difficult time recruiting a top-tier challenger for Smith, the job would be considerably easier if a Republican primary challenger pulled Smith to the right and sapped significant resources.

Minnesota: Norm Coleman finds himself in a similar situation to Gordon Smith, having to maintain moderate credibility to ensure a necessary breadth of support.  Minnesota will have no shortage of Democratic candidates itching to take Coleman on, be it a famous satirist, an attorney who slew Big Tobacco, a Nobel Laureate, and so on.  It would help the eventual Democratic nominee if Coleman was pulled to the right and had resources sapped by a primary challenger.  Enter Joe Repya, a military veteran and former advisor to Coleman who is considering entering the race.  Despite Repya’s ideological position to the right of the GOP, his apparent sincerity and straightforwardness would offer a damaging foil for the political opportunist Coleman and severely weaken his character before entering the general election, if he wins the primary, that is.

Retirements

Colorado: Senator Wayne Allard has retired and former Rep. Bob Schaffer appears to be the presumptive Republican Senate nominee for 2008.  But enough rumblings keep occuring suggesting that a bloc of the CO-GOP is not convinced Schaffer is a viable candidate against Democratic Congressman Mark Udall.  As such, we could still see a CO-GOP primary, leaving the eventual Republican nominee worse for the wear.

Nebraska: There will be a Republican primary in Nebraska.  The only question is whether or not Chuck Hagel will be involved.  If he is, Hagel will likely still see opposition from state Attorney General Jon Bruning, whose campaign has highlighted Hagel’s lack of support for the Bush administration on Iraq, and former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub.  If Hagel does not run for re-election, expect those two candidates plus businessman Tony Raimondo and who knows how many others might consider a bid for an open seat.  This would not be as notable a scenario if it wasn’t for the fact that two prominent Nebraska Democrats were considering Senate bids: Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey and former Senator Bob Kerrey.  As it seems unlikely that there would be a Democratic primary, whichever Democrat steps up will be at full strength to await a battle-bruised, resource-diminished Republican.

Idaho: If Larry Craig doesn’t retire, than this paragraph is moot.  However, if I had to make a wager, I’d bet on a Craig retirement.  Should Craig retire, Idaho’s GOP Lt. Gov. Jim Risch has been drooling to enter the Senate race and GOP Rep. Mike Simpson has at times expressed interest.  While Idaho is just about as red a state as there is, the ID-Dems have put up their strongest Senate candidate in years in former Congressman Larry LaRocco.  Should Craig retire and a rough Republican primary politically injury the eventual Republican nominee, Democrats would have their best opportunity in years for a Senate pickup here.

Ethics Problems

New Mexico: Pete Domenici’s role in the Attorney Purge scandal has been widely reported and its impact on Domenici’s approval rating has been observed.  With Domenici’s approval bottoming out, for the moment, around 50%, he is still awaiting the results of the Senate Ethics Committee’s investigation.  Should findings or political fallout result in a Domenici retirement or resignation, we could very well see a Republican primary in New Mexico to replace Domenici.  Though far-right GOP Rep. Steve Pearce would be the frontrunner, a less far-right Republican might see an opening for a challenge.  Meanwhile, the prospect of an open seat could entice Democratic Congressman Tom Udall or another top-tier Democrat to enter the race.

Alaska: As Ted Stevens gets more deeply embroiled in FBI investigations surrounding renovations to his home and his relationship with the corrupt VECO Corporation, coupled with Stevens advanced age, declining poll numbers, and increased interest from Democratic Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, Stevens could yet opt for retirement (if the FBI’s investigation doesn’t turn up something sooner that might force Stevens from the Senate), leaving Alaska wide open for a Republican Senate primary.

With the NRSC’s fundraising being well eclipsed by the DSCC, and with 21 Republican incumbents to protect compared with 12 Democrats, Republican Senate resources will be spread awfully thin in 2008.  The prospect of all these primaries, sapping already sparse resources, looms large over Republicans hoping to minimize losses in 2008 following a majority-losing 2006.

Democratic U.S. Rep. Brad Miller has stepped up his exploratory effort in recent days as he nears a self-imposed deadline of July 1 to decide whether to take on Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole in 2008.

Last week, Miller and his wife, Esther Hall, met for more than an hour with New York Sen. Charles Schumer, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

All of this is from the News and Observer

This was added to in this morning’s paper…

This morning’s version of the same story adds a few good quotes from people who want Brad to run and people who don’t.

State Representative Deborah Ross (who could end up becoming our first ever Female Speaker in the next few years) said that she thinks Brad will run if he can be assured of the money.

His treasurer from his past campaigns thinks that he shouldn’t run, because he is building a great career in the House.  I disagree with her conclusion, but it is very true that Brad is doing a great job in the House.

In a conversation about money, Brad added:

“I am convinced if I make the decision to run it will be one of the top targeted races nationally by the Senatorial Committee and by Democratic constituency groups,” he said. “The support is there for a serious run.”

For those worried about such things, the paper lists four potential challengers to save Brad’s House Seat should he run.  I know 2 of them, one of whom would be an amazing candidate for this.  His website is here.

All of this is very important, because we must get rid of Liddy Dole.  You can find out more about her record by checking out the Draft Brad site.  Or you can just click on my name and sort through all my diaries on her.

Brad is very close to making a decision, and we have a fantastic opportunity to convince him to run.  I hope you will join me and send him a very small donation (even as little as 2 dollars) to show that you still want him to run, and would be there volunteering, phone calling, and blog swarming on his behalf.

From the Casper Star-Tribune:

Tom Sansonetti
John Barrasso
Cynthia Lummis

Let’s dig up some dirt, people.

(Bumped. – promoted by James L.)

Check out the results from the Georgia SoS, or tune in to the gripping liveblog delivered by Tondee’s Tavern.  Right now, Marlow is four points down from Whitehead (R), the Republican frontrunner, and three points ahead of Republican Paul Broun.  Marlow will need to hold this position in order to advance to the run-off.  Fingers crossed!

8:15PM: Marlowe’s slipped to 3rd place with 27% of precincts reporting:

Whitehead (R): 31.7%
Broun (R): 25.2%
Marlow (D): 23.2%
Freeman (D): 7.2%

8:18PM: Neck and neck with 31% in.

Whitehead (R): 28.5%
Marlow (D): 28.4%
Broun (R): 24.5%
Freeman (D): 6.7%

8:34PM:  Whoops.  Here’s the real SoS link.  Don’t drink and blog, folks.

Anyway, Columbia, Whitehead’s home county, has yet to report–and it’s gonna be a bloodbath there.

8:42PM: For a taste of the carnage to come from Columbia county, check this out.  Whitehead is beating Marlow by an 9-to-1 8-to-1 margin here, and Broun is limping ahead of him.

8:50PM: The SoS is starting to report returns from Columbia.  67% in.

Whitehead (R): 39.2%
Marlow (D): 23.3%
Broun (R): 20.8%
Freeman (D): 5.6%

Marlow is lagging behind Broun and Freeman in Columbia–but let’s hope it won’t be enough to put Broun over the edge.

9:12PM: 79% in.  With lots more red turf left to report in Columbia and Habersham, Marlow will need to perform exceptionally in the remaining Athens precinct and hope that Broun performs poorly in Wilkes.  This one is looking ugly.

Whitehead (R): 40.7%
Marlow (D): 22.3%
Broun (R): 21.4%
Freeman (D): 4.9%

10:19PM: 94% in.

Whitehead (R): 43.7%
Marlow (D): 20.5%
Broun (R): 20.4%
Freeman (D): 4.8%

32 votes difference between second and third.  With precincts left in Banks, Columbia, Greene, Habersham, Madison, Morgan, and Putnam (all counties that favored Broun over Marlow), I don’t see how Marlow advances to the run-off.

11:29PM: With 96% in, Marlow is down by nearly 200 votes.