Month: October 2007

Alaska pollster Ivan Moore shares a new poll with the Swing State Project that tests the candidates on both sides of the aisle in Alaska’s at-large US House race next year.

The poll, conducted over “this last weekend” (10/19-10/21), shows Don Young with some very lackluster numbers in the Republican primary for a guy with three and a half decades of incumbency:

Don Young (R-inc): 61%
Gabrielle LeDoux (R): 33%
Undecided: 5%
(n=238)

If Young is losing that much of the Republican base against a low-profile candidate (LeDoux is a state Rep and former Democrat), you know that things aren’t looking so hot for the scandal-plagued incumbent.

Among potential Democratic primary voters, former state House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz holds an early edge:

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 45%
Diane Benson (D): 19%
Jake Metcalfe (D): 14%
(n=328)

The poll also shows that Berkowitz has nearly 80% name recognition in the state, while Benson has 66% and Metcalfe 65%.  If that seems slightly high, remember that Benson was the ’06 nominee while Metcalfe has already begun airing campaign commercials — and that this is a pretty small state with a cheaper-than-average media market.

Is it retirement time for GOP Rep. Barbara Cubin?  In a lengthy article dealing with her personal troubles and recent tragedies (and they are significant), Cubin says that she’ll make a re-election decision and announcement very soon:

Cubin, who turns 61 in November, told the Associated Press recently that she plans to run for re-election. But on Thursday she said only that she will make a decision and announcement in the next few weeks.

“I just need to make the announcement at a time that is right,” she said. “Certainly whatever I decide to do there are people I need to notify first before it is in the media – staff, family, all those kind of things.”

I don’t know about you, but I can’t imagine Cubin deciding to give 2008 another go.  That’s going to be bad news for Democrat Gary Trauner, but I suppose you never know what kind of Bill Sali-esque goon might emerge from the bowels of the Wyoming Republican Party, leaving a ray of hope in one of the reddest states in the nation.

CQ Politics:

A Dec. 11 special election will be held to fill the vacant seat in Virginia’s 1st Congressional District. The winner will succeed Republican Jo Ann Davis, who died Oct. 6 of breast cancer while serving her fourth House term.

Democratic Gov. Tim Kaine on Tuesday set the special election date, which is just seven weeks away. The special election will be a one-shot deal, with no primary contests: Democratic and Republican officials in the 1st District will select their parties’ nominees – and the timing of the selection process is likely to turn the special election campaign into an all-out sprint.

Republicans are expected to pick their candidate at a convention on Nov. 17. According to the state GOP, about two-dozen Republicans are seeking the seat or considering doing so.

…

It’s not certain when the local Democrats will hold their nominating convention, nor is it clear who will run on the Democratic side.

CQ also points out that the election to replace Rep. Paul Gillmor is the same day. The primary for that race is Nov. 6th.

Race Tracker: VA-01

Over the weekend, AFSCME and the New House PAC hosted a national candidate training camp in Chicago, with the blessing of the DCCC.  Martin Heinrich, a Democrat gunning for the open seat of Heather Wilson (R-NM), described the event thusly:

They invited the top challengers from around the nation and put us through the paces with two days of intense coaching on management, message, money and mobilization. I’ve been through a lot of political trainings, but this was in a class by itself. It was especially helpful to get to know some of the freshmen Congressmen like Ed Perlmutter who ran and won in Republican leaning districts.

In addition to being a great learning experience the conference also gave me great hope. This year’s challengers are an amazing crop of candidates. They all had impeccable credentials and the fire in the belly to win. By the end of the weekend they all had an impressively polished message as well.

I’m not so much interested in the concerns of some that the DCCC may be playing sides in a few primary battles through its involvement in the camp, but I am interested in seeing just who this coalition of national Democrats believes are worthy enough for the special treatment.  Heinrich, writing on his blog, leaks the attendees:

John Adler (NJ-03), Kay Barnes (MO-06), John Boccieri (OH-16), Charlie Brown (CA-04), Darcy Burner (WA-08), Steve Driehaus (OH-01), Joan Fitz-Gerald (CO-02), Bill Foster (IL-14), Larry Grant (ID-01), Martin Heinrich (NM-01), Jim Himes (CT-04), Mary Jo Kilroy (OH-15), Bill Kennedy (MT-AL), Bob Lord (AZ-03), Dan Maffei (NY-25), Betsy Markey (CO-04), Eric Massa (NY-29), Bill McCamley (NM-02), Bill O’Neill (OH-14), Gary Peters (MI-09), Jon Powers (NY-26), Mark Schauer (MI-07), Dan Seals (IL-10), Ron Shepston (CA-42), John Unger (WV-02), Dick Versace (IL-18).

Certainly an interesting list — with a surprise or two, like Ron Shepston, a candidate who quite literally emerged from the DailyKos user rolls and is running in a deeply red (R+10.2) district.

Former state Sen. Dino Rossi, the eventual 133-vote loser in the highly contentious 2004 gubernatorial election in Washington state, is gearing up for a rematch against Democratic Gov. Christine Gregoire.  Rossi will make his bid official on Thursday.

There’s no doubt that Rossi will be a serious foe against Gregoire.  Rossi seemed to benefit from favorable media coverage during the bitter re-count period in 2004, as evidenced by this poll showing that voters felt that he was robbed of the office and that he’d easily have won a hypothetical re-vote in late January, 2005.

Still, Gregoire seems to have had a largely uncontroversial first term, and the trendline of her approvals is respectable.

This will be a hard-fought race by the GOP — possibly their only real offensive opportunity to pick off an incumbent Democratic governor next year.  But I’d be willing to bet that Gregoire has the early, if only slight, edge.

We at Twenty-First Century Democrats won’t give up in Virginia until the last poll closes on November 6!  We already told you about how Virginia Republicans have been pulling out plays from Karl Rove’s book of dirty tricks. But we’ve been fighting back hard. Thanks to a group of dedicated progressives we’ve been on the ground making a difference in these important races.

Twenty-First Century Democrats has had teams of canvassers in several districts across Virginia.  We have knocked on 2,254 doors and talked to hundreds of voters about our candidates and their progressive goals for the state.  In addition, we made a direct contribution to the Virginia Democratic Senate Caucus on behalf of our endorsed candidates: Albert Pollard (VA-28) and Janet Oleszek (VA-37). But we are not finished yet! Election Day in Virginia is coming up on November 6th, and we’re redoubling our efforts to help Turn Virginia from RED to BLUE!

The upcoming State Senate races in Virginia are vitally important. Not only are they winnable, but they present a real opportunity to change the map in Virginia and beyond. These are the last State Senate races before the 2010 census and with a Democratic majority in the State Senate we will have a voice in the redistricting process.  Success in Virginia this year will set the stage for bigger victories in congressional races in the future – even the Presidential race in 2008. It may seem like a long way off, but winning today will help us build a lasting progressive majority tomorrow.

If you live in the Washington DC metropolitan area and would like to join us as we fight for Democrats in Virginia, please contact us at info@21stdems.org.

It’s World Series week, and Congressman Mike McCaul is about to get another chance to improve his batting average when a measure providing uninsured Texas kids the kind of health insurance program he enjoys comes up again for debate.

So far, he’s batting 0-2.

First, he voted against the bi-partisan SCHIP bill that would have extended coverage to nearly 1.4 million Texas children whose parents work hard and earn too much to qualify for Medicaid but too little to afford private insurance.  Then, he remained in lockstep with the Bush-Cheney administration and voted against overriding the President’s veto.

Forty-four Republicans joined the Democratic majority in voting to override last week and guarantee access to affordable health care for the children of parents who are working hard and playing by the rules.  They ignored the misinformation spread by the White House and did the right thing.

But not Mr. McCaul.  So here are some facts to help him do the right thing, too:

• More than 90 percent of those families covered by SCHIP earn less than $41,000 a year and can’t afford the average $12,000 annual premiums to cover their children.
• McCaul and his fellow ideologues claim the SCHIP proposal would cover families earning $83,000 a year.  But they’re wrong — and they know it.  No state, including Texas, can cover higher-income families without approval from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, which President Bush controls.
• SCHIP is a fiscally responsible plan that saves local taxpayers money by guaranteeing access to health care at the doctor's office, not the emergency room.
• SCHIP isn’t a step toward the kind of government-run health care McCaul and his cronies enjoy. Under the proposal, states are free to provide health coverage any way they choose — and most of them, including Texas, choose to use private insurers to deliver coverage.
• SCHIP is aimed directly at those who need it. States earn bonuses for enrolling those most in need and lose federal matching funds if they don't cover the poorest children — and it phases out coverage for those few adults who are currently enrolled.

The issue isn’t going away.  More than 80 percent of Americans favor the measure Mr. McCaul has voted against — twice.  The question now is whether he will be independent enough next time to swing for the fences or continue to look to the bench for instructions on what to do.

Crumb-bum Bill Young has long been considered a potential retirement for the GOP this cycle–and Democrats are hungry for the shot at an open seat race in this tossup district (at D+1, it supported Gore in ’00 and Bush in ’04 by the slimmest of margins).  Let’s take a look at some of the press that Young has earned over the year and see what the story tells us:

February 16, 2007 (House Race Hotline):

Nat’l Dems “are aggressively working to recruit someone to run” for Rep. Bill Young’s (R) seat, “pegging it as one of their top targets.” A DCCC recruiter “recently met with prospective” Dem candidates including ex-state House Speaker Peter Wallace (D), ex-state Rep. Lars Hafner (D) and businessman/neighborhood activist Karl Nurse (D). […] The challengers, though, have their doubts. Wallace on Young: “I’d be very surprised if a highly competitive campaign could be run against him.”

February 20, 2007 (House Race Hotline):

Dems “sounded the opening bell last week,” firing off an e-mail from FL party leaders suggesting that Young already “is seated squarely in Dems’ sights.” They attempted to link Young to the Walter Reed scandal in the e-mail. A DCCC operative suggested that Young’s alleged proximity to the Walter Reed scandal likely could be a “rallying point” for an already packed field of “likely” candidates.  Dems “are courting” state Sen. Charlie Justice (D), state Reps. Rick Kriseman (D) and Bill Heller (D), ex-FL House Speaker Peter Wallace (D) and hospital Admin. Sue Brody. Dems say GOP leaders are “petrified” Young will opt not to run in ’08, which likely would set off a “primary scramble in both parties.”

May 15, 2007 (House Race Hotline):

Rep. Bill Young (R) said even he doesn’t know “how much longer he’ll stay” in Congress.  Young: “Nobody knows because I don’t know.”  But will he retire in ’08?  Young: “Let’s be honest: I’m thinking about it more than I did last year or the year before.” […]

But Young’s uncertainty has left GOPers “worried that he may be serving his last term.”

July 17, 2007 (House Race Hotline):

At 76, Rep. Bill Young (R) is unsure if he wants to retire, but just in case he decides to run, he’s “amassing” a “truckload of money.”  He has nearly $600K CoH for an election that is “more than a year away.”  Asked if the money was a sign he was running again, Young said, “I think you should take that as a sign that we are prepared to back up whatever decision we make.”  Young has voted with the GOP 84% of the time so far this year, “the lowest level since 1992, according to an analysis by Congressional Quarterly” (Adair, St. Petersburg Times, 7/17).

August 9, 2007 (House Race Hotline):

State Sen. Charlie Justice (D) was in DC last week “talking” with the DCCC about running against Rep. Bill Young (R).  Justice: “A lot of people have been asking me to aat least think about it, consider it.”  Justice, whose name “is also in the mix” of possible ’09 St. Petersburg mayoral cands, so running against Young “might boost” his name ID if Young “waits awhile to retire.”  Justice: “I don’t get into campaigns to raise my name ID for future races or to set myself up for a mayoral race.”  If I did it, I would run to win.”

October 2, 2007: Bill Young votes to deny victims of terrorism financial compensation.

October 13, 2007: Young posts his third quarter fundraising tally:

Bill Young (R-inc): $29K raised; $579K CoH

Huge stunner here.  […] These numbers are positively John Warner-esque.  Is Young looking for the exit?

Something is set to break here.

In another blow to Republican Senate hopes, Rep. Tom Davis, considered their party’s best shot at holding the seat of retiring Sen. John Warner in the red column, is set to abort his candidacy in a public announcement this week (possibly as early as Thursday).  Chris Cillizza adds that it is not yet clear whether Davis will retire from the House or not.

That leaves the field clear for GOP stalwart and former Gov. Jim Gilmore to proudly wave the conservative flag in the election against the formidable Democrat Mark Warner.

This could turn into the most boring Senate race of the cycle.  But hey, I won’t complain.

Could the Democratic primary for the right to contest the open seat of Republican Steve Pearce in New Mexico get a little more crowded soon?  Heath Haussamen has the goods.

State Rep. Joseph Cervantes, a respected moderate, will announce his intentions on November 4th.  Cervantes could be an interesting candidate with the potential to tap into the sizable Latino vote in the district.  Last week he sounded optimistic about a run:

Cervantes said he is “doing what it takes right now, at this stage, and it would be a great privilege to represent the district. I think the country clearly is looking for change and I’ve worked for seven years in a legislative body doing the same thing in Santa Fe.”

Cervantes would join ’06 nominee Al Kissling, Doña Ana County Commissioner Bill McCamley and former Lea County Commissioner Harry Teague in the Democratic primary.

While this R+5.7 district doesn’t sit at the top of the list of Democratic pick-up opportunities this cycle, it’s worth mentioning that the NRCC was trying their best to prevent Pearce from giving Democrats another open seat opportunity here.  An anonymous national GOP official quoted by Haussamen summed up the situation for prospective local Republican candidates in the district:

“Somebody’s going to have to sink or swim in that district,” the official said. “Somebody’s going to have to do that on their own.”

Sounds like another opportunity for Democrats to test the limits of the cash-strapped NRCC.

Race Tracker: NM-02