Month: October 2007

Greg Goode, a Republican challenger to freshman Democrat Brad Ellsworth, stepped down from his job at Indiana State University today in order to meet voters and explore the district he’s running in:

Goode announced his candidacy for the 8th District Congress on Aug. 1. He has since then gained the support from the 8th District Republican Committee and plans on devoting his time and attention to the campaign and election.

“My goals are to criss-cross the 15 counties that make up the Indiana 8th Congressional District,” Goode said. “I will be doing that for the next one year and one month of my life. This is a big district geographically speaking. It is one the largest districts in Indiana and it is going to take a lot of time. That’s why we announce this early.” (Emphasis added)

That sounds very nice… until you realize that Indiana’s 8th district has 18 counties.

I wonder which three counties Goode plans to ignore?

(H/T to the indispensable Blue Indiana)

Race Tracker: IN-08

Pass the popcorn!  It’s time for another divisive Republican primary.  Mere days after jumping into the New Mexico Senate race, Rep. Steve Pearce is already being accused of breaking House ethics rules by his colleague and primary opponent, Heather Wilson:

  Pearce, as part of a campaign-funded “tele town hall,” autodialed an estimated 130,000 GOP members across New Mexico on Thursday evening to chat them up about a vetoed children’s health bill, which he and Wilson disagree on.

  ” …I voted to uphold the veto because this bill has major flaws that are bad for the country, and bad for New Mexico,” Pearce said in his recorded messages leading up to the live, two-hour telephone town hall from his Washington, D.C., home. About 13,000 agreed to stay on the line.

  The Wilson camp, meanwhile, accused Pearce of breaking House ethics rules by urging those he called to contact him through his official, non-campaign phone number or check out his official, non-campaign Web site.

  Wilson deputy finance director Heather Wade in an e-mail to the Journal cited a portion of a House document advising members they cannot advertise their official House Web sites on “materials issued by the campaign.” And Wade maintains the calls were, in effect, campaign materials.

  “In making these phone calls, Mr. Pearce misused taxpayer dollars to run for the Senate…,” Wade said in a written statement.

Nice body blow by Wilson there, who is no paragon of ethics herself.  She certainly isn’t wasting any time getting out in front of the issue.  I look forward to Pearce’s counter-attack, and the ensuing bloodbath.

Race Tracker: NM-Sen

(From the diaries. Share your thoughts on Mississippi’s 2007 elections here. – promoted by James L.)

Louisiana has had their jungle primary and Democrats held on to the both chambers of the state legislature, the Lieutenant Governorship, and are heading into run offs for Agriculture Commissioner and Attorney General. Before these runoffs are held, Kentucky and Mississippi will have similar statewide elections on November 6. Additionally, New Jersey and Virginia will be electing large portions of their state legislatures. Going into these elections, I’d like us to have an opportunity to focus on these somewhat overlooked 2007 elections. Before going forward, I will admit that I am not an expert on any of these states and these threads are mostly here for feedback from the forum users. Today, I’ll focus on Mississippi.

Mississippi will be voting for Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Secretary of State, Attorney General, State Auditor, State Treasurer, Agriculture and Commerce Commissioner, and Insurance Commissioner. Additionally the state legislature is up. Here’s a brief on each office.

Governor
Haley Barbour, former tobacco lobbyist, is seeking re-election as the Republican nominee. Barbour beat out incumbent Democrat, Ronnie Musgrove in 2003. Since then he has been received positively by the state, mostly due to what was seen as strong reaction to Hurricane Katrina (no doubt reinforced by Louisiana’s poor reaction). The Democrats have nominated John Arthur Eaves Jr. who, from what I have heard, has run hard on religion and performed well in debates while Barbour has appeared listless. Expect Barbour to win, but his margin of victory to be closer than expected.

Lieutenant Governor
Due to term limits, Republican Amy Tuck will not be seeking re-election. The Republicans have nominated 3 term State Auditor Phil Bryant. The Democrat is State Rep. Jaime Franks. Both candidates look to be highly engaged in this race. I have no idea who is favored, but I’d guess Bryant because he has been elected statewide before.

Secretary of State
Incumbent Democrat Eric Clark is retiring. Democrats have nominated Former State Senator Rob Smith. The Republicans have put forward Redstate favorite Delbert Hosemann who will keep those “dirty illegals” from voting. Delbert’s campaign looks much more engaged compared to Smith whose campaign looks nonexistent. Expect the Republicans to gain this one.

Attorney General
Incumbent Democrat Jim Hood is seeking re-election. The Republican candidate is Attorney Al Hopkins. Both sides appear engaged and Hopkins looks like he’s bringing abortion into the election. Both sides also look like they are getting REAL dirty as well. This one may be close, but I’d guess a Hood re-election is in store.

State Auditor
Phi Bryant is the Republican nominee for Lieutenant Governor, so it is an open seat race. Cousin to Congressman Chip, State Sen. Stacey Pickering is the Republican nominee. The Democrats have nominated Forrest County Adminstrator Mike Sumrall. This one looks like it has gotten away from us and will stay with the Republicans.

Treasurer
Republican Tate Reeves is seeking re-election and the Democrats have frequent candidate Shawn O’Hara. This one is staying theirs.

Agriculture and Commerce
Republican Lester Spell is seeking re-election. Former Democratic State Chair Rickey Cole is our guy. This is the only race where the Democrat seems more engaged than the Republican. If we upset any race this is it, but the Republican is still favored. A candidate from the Constitution Party may make the difference for us.

Insurance Commissioner
DFA endorsed and ex-state fiscal officer Gary Anderson defeated incumbent Democrat George Dale in the primary, so this can be considered an open seat race. The Republicans have nominated Mike Chaney. Anderson looks a bit more engaged, but, and I REALLY hate to say this, expect race may be a factor and we may lose it on that alone, issues be damned! I’d say this leans Republican, but we still have chance.

State Senate
A pair of Democrats defected earlier this year and gave control of the legislature to the Republicans. The current Composition is 27 Republicans-25 Democrats. I expect the Republicans may have some coattails from many of their top of the ballot races and gain a tad to expand their majorities.

State House
The DLCC website states the Mississippi State House has a 74-48 Democratic majority. Expect our majroity to shrink due to coattails, but Democrats to stay in command.

Summary
Republicans will keep the statewide seats they already have, however the race for Governor and Lieutenant Governor may be closer than we could have previously hoped for. The Agriculture Commissioner may flip Democratic, however it is unlikely Democrats can also expect to lose the Secretary of State. Our bright side appears that, while it will be close, we should hold onto the Attorney General, barely, and the State House. While Insurance Commissioner will probably flip Republican, we do have fighting chance of holding it.

Please, comment, and tell me your thoughts on Mississippi. I’ll have more of these up before Nov 6 on New Jersey, Virginia, and Kentucky.

On a complete side note, I am looking forward to Friday when I can get Mac OS X.5 Leopard so I can get bloody spell check build into Safari, so until then, please forgive the spelling typos where they are.

In September, we asked you to rank the 2008 Senate races in order of their likeliness to flip party control.  Since that time, there have been a number of developments that might shake up your rankings, including:

1. NM-Sen: The retirement of Pete Domenici and the entries of Republican Reps. Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce, as well as Democrat Martin Chavez, in the race to replace him.
2. VA-Sen: The depression of Rep. Tom Davis, after his party gamed the nomination for unpopular ex-Gov. Jim Gilmore.
3. NH-Sen: The entry of ex-Gov. Jeanne Shaheen.
4. NE-Sen: More dithering from Bob Kerrey (who appears to be back in NYC), while ex-Gov. Mike Johanns quit his job in Bush’s cabinet to carry the GOP banner in the race.
5. LA-Sen: Analysts are already beginning to read the tea leaves of last night’s gubernatorial elections in the state.  While Jindal had a blowout victory, Mary Landrieu’s brother was re-elected to his Lt. Governor post with 57% of the vote.  The Hotline’s Quinn McCord reads the numbers and finds the results to be not so bad for Sen. Landrieu.

Not that I take much stock in his wisdom, but the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza released his rankings of the Senate scene on Friday (previous ranking in parens):

1. Virginia (1)
2. New Hampshire (2)
3. Colorado (3)
4. New Mexico (-)
5. Louisiana (4)
6. Oregon (5)
7. Maine (6)
8. Minnesota (8)
9. Alaska (10)
10. Nebraska (7)

What’s your take?

In response to Garrett’s shameful vote to not override President Bush’s SCHIP veto, NJ-5’s Democratic challenger Dennis Shulman has called on the ideologue to get his priorities straight.

As Shulman points out, “We need to get our fiscal house in order, but our children don’t need to be the ones left behind by Garrett’s last minute scramble to clean up his fiscal mess.”

Even more troubling, but no less surprising, is the fact the Garret seems to not have bothered to even read the SCHIP legislation he so self-righteously condemned. Fortunately, Matthew Fretz did bother to read it and, point-by-point, systematically exposes the unbridgeable gap between Garrett’s words and that pesky little thing called reality.

In other news, Shulman’s campaign continues to gain momentum. Check out this recent article on the blind rabbi in the Jewish Standad. 

RESULTS: Louisiana SoS | NoLa.com | Shreveport Times | Baton Rouge Advocate | WWLTV

2:44PM Sun: DCal looks at the numbers and finds that the Dems have held the state House, too.
12:35AM (final update): TXObserver brings us some key state House results.  Looks like the Republicans picked up a few seats and forced run-offs in other Dem-held districts.  Democrats had a 17-seat edge in the state House going into the election.  We’ll have to wait a few weeks to see what the complete carnage is.
11:59PM: The lack of a Democratic candidate with a strong appeal in Orleans Parish really helped lift Jindal over the 50% mark.  Check this out: while Mitch Landrieu cleaned up with 90% of the vote here, Democrats Boasso and Campbell combined for a pathetic 28% of the parish’s vote, with 382 of 442 precincts reporting.  That’s way behind Republican-turned-Indie John Georges’ total of 38%, and even behind Jindal’s 33%.  Talk about a wipeout.
11:51PM: So here’s why I think that Louisiana Secretary of State Jay Dardenne (R) didn’t deserve to win re-election tonight: his website sucks.
11:36PM: TXObserver brings us some state Senate races to watch in the comments.  It looks like Mitch Landrieu will win comfortably–he’s holding his closest challenger to a 56-32 margin with 82% of the vote in.
11:30PM: KTBS has Jindal at 47% with 3,413 precincts reporting, but he’s expected to rack up some big points in his home turf in the NOLA suburbs (he scored 88% of the vote in his re-election bid there last year against two hapless Democrats).  (Update: there seems to be some bad math here, anyway.)
11:23PM: WWLTV’s calling the race for Jindal.
11:14PM: With 3,032 of 3,967 precincts reporting, Jindal is sitting tight with 53%.
11:08PM: Highlights from some of the other statewide races — Mitch Landrieu has 54% of the vote in bid for re-election as Lt. Governor with  2372 precincts reporting.  Democrat James Caldwell and incumbent Attorney General Charles Foti (D) are both slightly edging Republican challenger Royal Alexander.  Looks like a Caldwell-Foti run-off could be in the cards.
10:40PM: 2.641 of 3,967 precincts reporting: Jindal 53%, Boasso 18%
10:33PM: 2,636 of 3,967 precincts reporting: Jindal 56%, Boasso 18%, Georges 14%, Campbell 10% (according to WWLTV).
10:22PM: 1,388 of 3,967 precincts reporting: Jindal 52%; Boasso, 18%.  Landrieu holding at 51%.
10:20PM: 1096 of 3,967 precincts reporting: Jindal 53%, Boasso 18%
10:14PM: From WWLTV New Orleans: “Election analyst Greg Rigamer says things are looking very good for Jindal to get over 50% and win outright.”
10:03PM: 787 of 3,967 precincts reporting: 52% Jindal, 19% Boasso.
9:56PM: 470 of 3,967 precincts reporting: Jindal 53%, Boasso 19%.  Landrieu at 51%.
9:47PM: 298 of 3,967 precincts reporting: Jindal 54%, Boasso 18%.  Landrieu at 50%.
9:27PM: 11 of 3,967 precincts reporting: Jindal 60%, Boasso & Campbell at 14% each.  Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu at 46% in the absentee ballot count so far.
9:21PM: What a surprise: some New Orleans voters get screwed at the polls.
9:06PM: 1 of 3,967 precincts reporting: Jindal 63%, Boasso 15%.

---

It’s election day in Louisiana, as voters go to the polls to choose between Bobby Jindal (R), Walter Boasso (D), Foster Campbell (D), John Georges (I), and a slew of also-rans in the race to replace outgoing Gov. Kathleen Blanco.  Polls close at 8pm Central/9pm Eastern.  Turnout has been described as “brisk” and “steady” in the reports that I’ve seen.   We’ll update this thread as results come in.

How well will Jindal do tonight?  Will he avoid the run-off?  Who will place second?  I don’t usually like to stick my neck out, but here’s my bet, for what it’s worth: Jinal 55%; no run-off.

Third quarter fundraising numbers came out over a week ago.  Fundraising is a huge indicator to a lot of things when it comes to predicting races and keeping an eye out for possible retirements. 

So lets get down to it.  I’m going to take people who fundraised under 100,000$ and go over their age, and length of their political career. 

Senate:
Mike Enzi raised a total of $7,525.  Enzi is 63 years old, and has spent 27 of the last 32 years in elected office.  He is older, and is looking foward to a long time in the minority. 

Thad Cochran raised a total of $14,124.  Cochran is 70 years old, and has spent the last 34 years in congress.  (4 years in the house, then the last 30 in the senate). 

House:
John Doolittle (R-CA-04) raised $50,000.  Doolittle is 57 years old, and has spent the last 27 years in elected office (CA Senate ’80-90, US House ’90-present)

Jerry Lewis (R-CA-41) raised $67,000.  Lewis is 73 years old and has spent the last 39 years in elected office (CA Senate ’68-78, US House ’78-Present)

Gary Miller (R-CA-42) raised $39,000.  Miller is 59 years old and has spent 16 of the last 18 years in elected office. 

Bill Young (R-FL-10) raised $29,000.  Young is 77 years old, and has spent the last 47 years in elected office (FL Senate ’60-70, US House ’70-present)

Dave Weldon (R-FL-15) raised $29,000.  Weldon is 54 years old, and has spent the last 13 years in the US House (always in the majority). 

Mark Souder (R-IN-03) raised $83,000.  Souder is 57 years old, and has spent the last 13 years in the US House (always in the majority). 

Steve Buyer (R-IN-04) raised $74,000.  Buyer is 49 years old, and has spent the last 15 years in the US House. 

Julia Carson (D-IN-07) raised $9,000.  Carson is
69 years old, and has spent the last 35 years in political office.  She also has health issues. 

Roscoe Bartlett (R-MD-06) raised $1,000.  Bartlett is 81 years old, and has spent the last 15 years in the US House. 

Dennis Kucinech (D-OH-10) raised $40.  Kucinech is 61 years old, and has spent 21 of the last 38 years in elected office. 

Virgil Goode (R-VA-05) raised $53,000.  Goode is 61 years old, and has spent the last 34 years in elective office (VA Senate ’73-96, US House ’96-present)

Frank Wolf (R-VA-10) raised $79,000.  Wolf is 68 years old, and has spent the last 27 years in the US House. 

Barbera Cubin (R-WY-AL) raised $11,000.  Cubin is 61 years old, and has spent the last 20 years in elected office.  Cubin is also being pushed towards retirement by state Republicans for her weak electability. 

In case you are wondering, I did omit a number of people who were very close to $100,000, if they had a contested primary, or if they were in a competitive district (Obviously making it harder to raise large sums of money.  If I didn’t, this would have taken me all day). 

People Ommitted:
Bilbray-R-CA-50
Latham-R-IA-04
King-R-IA-05
Sali-R-ID-01
Lipinski-D-IL-03
Gilchrest-R-MD-01
Saxton=R-NJ-03
Udall-D-NM-03
Fossella-R-NY-13
McHugh-R-NY-19
McCaul-R-TX-10

Future Democratic retirements? 
House: 1-2
Senate: 0

Future Republican retirements? 
House: 5-11
Senate: 1-2

(Of course these are off of fundraising only – Obviously I’m not looking into people who are off the radar completely)

Here’s what I guessed.

Democrats-US House: Carson for Sure, Kucinech is a maybe.

Republicans-US Senate: Cochran for sure, Enzi is a maybe. 

Republicans-US House: Lewis, Young, Bartlett, Cubin for sure – Everyone else maybe. 

We thought we’d add a little flavor to our open thread this week by including a caption contest.  Let’s see what you can come up with for this recent photo taken of Alabama Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks (at left).

Well, that didn’t take long.  Chris Minor, a Blackwater contractor who announced a bid against freshman Dem Joe Donnelly just a few weeks ago, is dropping out of the race:

Blackwater contractor Chris Minor announced early Friday he’s dropping out of the Indiana 2nd District congressional race, citing conflicts with his upcoming duties in Iraq.

Minor, a former Kokomo High School graduate and retired U.S. Army officer, announced in late September he would challenge incumbent U.S. Rep. Joe Donnelly, D-Granger.

Friday, Minor said running for office would be “too great a distraction” from his upcoming deployment as an independent contractor in Iraq.

Minor was a gong show candidate.  He denied any closeness with the Blackwater, choosing to instead classify his affairs with the company as being merely a “pay relationship” (whatever that’s supposed to mean).  That didn’t stop him from defending the company earlier in the month, though:

Minor said he thinks Blackwater will be vindicated by the investigations.

“I think once the investigations are over, we’ll see a bunch of guys who have just been fighting in a very tough, combat environment.”

Guess not, Chris.

There were other facets of Minor’s profile that were less than compelling, including his decision to resign from the Kokomo Police Department after an off-duty altercation, as well as a drunk driving charge.

I guess it’s back to the drawing board for Indiana Republicans.

Race Tracker: IN-02