Month: October 2007

The full rankings are available on Campaign Diaries.

Plenty of action in House races since our first ratings came out in mid-September. This is recruitment and retirement season in the House, and Ohio has been the center of it all, with three Republicans retiring, two of them in very competitive districts (OH-15 and OH-16). Democrats have had better news on the recruitment front as well (look at AK-AL, FL-24, IL-11 and MN-06), but Republicans reply that they are very satisfied with their newest candidates in NM-01 and OH-07…

A lot will still happen in the next few weeks. Republicans are afraid that many more Republicans will announce their retirement, for that has really been to bottom line so far: Whatever chance the GOP had of reclaiming a majority next year (and it was already a slim chance) has been erased by the number of competitive open seats the party will have to defend, some of them completely unexpectedly. Two good news the Republicans did get recently  were from unexpected places. The first is from VA-11, a blue-trending district held by Republican Tom Davis. It appeared certain that Davis would run for Senate — offering the seat to Dems, but it now seems he will stay where he is. The second good news came from MA-05, where the GOP got a “moral victory” this week in the special election that the Democrat won by only 5% in a very Democratic district. Moral victories might not be much, but Hackett’s near-win in very red OH-02 in 2005 certainly prefigured larger gains in 2006.

I have only written full descriptions of seats that have made news over the past month. For deatiled descriptions of the other races, check last month’s rankings. Only a few seats saw their rating change in the past four months. I indicated upgraded or downgraded next to them to indicate whether they became more vulnerable or less vulnerable for the incumbent party. Here is the quick run-down:

• Less competitive: OH-02, VA-11
• More competitive: AK-AL, IN-09, IL-11, KS-03, NM-11, NJ-03, OH-07, OH-14

Outlook: Democrats pick-up a net 7-10 seats.

The full rankings are available here, on Campaign Diaries.

Republican seats, Lean take-over (4)

• AZ-1 (Open)
• CA-4 (Rep. Doolittle): Nothing much has changed since last month. Doolittle is under heavy investigation for his ties with Abramoff, and he is refusing to retire, drawing fire from his own party. Democrats are running 2006 nominee Brown, and if Doolittle stays the GOP candidate, they seem assured of carrying the seat. But if the RNCC is successful in getting Doolittle to retire, the race will drop down and strongly favor Republican. It is a red district and is rated so high only because of Doolittle’s troubles.
• NM-1 (Open, upgraded): Heather Wilson is running for Senate, and this swing district finally opened up. Republicans got the candidate they white when Sheriff White jumped in the race, but the seat slightly leans Democratic and that should play help the Democratic nominee (right now probably Heinrich, but 2006 nominee Patricia Madrid could jump in) cross the finish line. White released a poll showing him ahead in a general election, but it was an internal poll. We will downgrade the race is that is confirmed by independent pollsters
• OH-15 (Open): Republicans have pretty much given up on this seat since Rep. Pryce announced she was retiring.  A whole line-up of Republicans passed up on the race one after the other, most notably former Ohio Attorney General Jim Petro. Democrat Kilroy (the 2006 nominee) seems to have the Dem nomination wrapped up, and should sail to victory. With so many other seats to worry about in Ohio, the GOP will likely not spend that much time defending this one.

Democratic seats, Lean take-over (1)

• FL-16 (Rep. Mahoney)

Republican seats, Toss-up (12)

• CO-4 (Rep. Musgrave): Angie Paccione, the 2006 nominee, was preparing for a rematch against Musgrave, but announced she was dropping out in late September. This leaves Betsy Markey, a former aide to Senator Salazar, as the likely Democratic nominee.
• CT-4 (Rep. Shays)
• IL-10 (Rep. Kirk): Democrats are in the midst of a tight primary fight between Jay Footlik and 2006 nominee Daniel Seals.
• IL-11 (Open, upgraded): Rep. Weller’s decision to call it quits in this competitive district made it a top target for Democrats overnight. Their hand strengthened when they unexpectedly convinced Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson to jump in, while the leading Republican declined to run.  Depending on where GOP recruitment ends up, this race could soon move up to “Lean Takeover.”
• MN-03 (Open): Rep. Ramstad’s retirement made this race an instant toss-up, but the GOP is reportedly pressuring him to reconsider his decision, arguing that conditions are too bad this cycle and Ramstad should wait one more to open his seat. That about tells you how vulnerable this seat is.
• NC-8 (Rep. Hayes)
• NJ-03 (Rep. Saxton, upgraded): Republicans think they finally have the candidate in this swing district that Bush narrowly carried in 2004 but that Gore won by 10 points in 2000. State Senator John Adler is running, 18 years after a first run against Saxton at age 31. Depending on who tops the presidential ticket, this race could go either way.
• OH-1 (Rep. Chabot)
• OH-16 (Open): Rep. Regula announced he would retire in mid-October, after years of speculation that his time had come. Democrats are running a strong candidate in the form of state Senator John Boccieri, but it might very well be that they would have had an easier time defeating the aging Regula than competing for an open seat in a district that is marginally Republican.
• NY-25 (Rep. Walsh)
• PA-6 (Rep. Gerlach)
• VA-11 (Rep. Davis, possibly open; downgraded): In the last rankings, this seat was ranked “lean takeover” because Tom Davis looked sure to jump in the Senate seat and open up this northern Virginia district in a region that has beentrending Democratic. But it now looks like Davis might  not retire after all. Democrats are certain to challenge him more than they did in 2006, but Davis would start up as the favorite if he runs.
• WA-8 (Rep. Reichert)

Read the rest of the rankings — and detailed accounts of many more races, including Democratic toss-ups, lean retentions, etc…, here!

According to The Hill, Florida Democrats are seeking to put three Miami-area incumbent Republicans on the defensive next year: Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (FL-18), Lincoln Diaz-Balart (FL-21) and Mario Diaz-Balart (FL-24). Below is a chart of PVIs and Presidential voting in the three districts:

State	CD	Incumbent	Party	PVI	Kerry ’04	Bush ’04	Gore ’00	Bush ’00
FL	18	Ros-Lehtinen	(R)	R+4.3	46	54	43	57
FL	21	Diaz-Balart, Lincoln	(R)	R+6.2	43	57	42	58
FL	25	Diaz-Balart, Mario	(R)	R+4.4	44	56	45	55

It is no secret that Republicans have long dominated Cuban-American politics in Florida, where a tough stance on Cuba has long been at the forefront of the community’s political goals. The same has been true of these Miami-area districts. Interestingly, though, Kerry performed slightly better than Gore did in both the 18th and 21st districts, despite the fact that Kerry lost the state by 5% while Gore and Bush ran nearly evenly in 2000.

Could one, two, or all three of these incumbents end up being the next Henry Bonilla, the Texas Republican who got trounced by Democrat Ciro Rodriguez in a district with a similarly red PVI (R+4.2) last December? Florida Democrats are eager to put the three incumbents to the test, and are actively seeking challengers.

They may have found the candidate to give Lincoln Diaz-Balart a run for his money in Raul Martinez, the popular former mayor of Hialeah:

Martinez is exactly the kind of candidate Democrats would need to seriously challenge Diaz-Balart because their battle would take place in a district where cultural ties matter more than party affiliation, according to David Wasserman, U.S. House editor for The Cook Political Report.

“Democrats are looking more for a name than a moneyed or well-funded campaign,” he said.

Martinez, who like Diaz-Balart is a Cuban émigré, fits that bill after 25 years as mayor of Hialeah, which is the fifth-largest city in Florida, boasts a huge Cuban population and is 90 percent Hispanic.

As of 2004, Hialeah’s population has been recorded at nearly 225,000 — a good base for a challenger to draw on. Last month, Martinez quit his radio show after being asked to sign a waiver by station management promising not to run for a political office. Keeping his options open? Sounds like it to me:

“That’s Miami,” quipped Martinez, who said he believes the station came under political pressure from GOP forces trying to protect Lincoln Diaz-Balart. The incident has him leaning toward running, Martinez said.

“My family comes first, but then, my love has always been politics,” he said in an interview. He plans to make his decision by the end of October or mid-November, partly to give others enough time to prepare for a run if he decides against challenging the eight-term Republican.

Democrats are hopeful that, with strong challengers at the helm, the political landscape will shift in southeast Florida. They’re already touting polls that show Iraq and health care as the top concerns in the Diaz-Balart districts. It’s worth noting that all three of these incumbents voted against the recent S-CHIP expansion package, and in support of the president’s veto of the bi-partisan legislation. The DCCC is sensing an opportunity: they’ve begun airing Spanish-language radio ads in all three districts, hitting the incumbents hard over their unconscionable votes.

Now all we need are three challengers to take these districts for a spin.

Race Tracker: FL-18 | FL-21 | FL-25

My opponent once more failed to do the right thing today.

He again put his loyalty to the Bush-Cheney administration ahead of his obligation to the families who pay for his own health care with their taxes but can’t afford the same rights for their own children.

Central Texans were looking for more leadership and less followership in Washington, D.C. today, because with more uninsured children than any other state, we had more to lose. We didn’t get that leadership today.

It’s time for a fresh start in a new direction.

From Today's Hotline: 

Conducted 10/8-11 by Ayres, McHenry & Associates (R); surveyed 600 RVs; margin of error +/- 4% (release, 10/17). Party ID Breakdown: 30%D, 34%R, 36%I. Tested: Sen. Lamar Alexander (R) and ex-Gov. McWherter son/businessman Mike McWherter (D).

General Election Matchup                   Alexander As Sen.
                     All    Dem GOP Ind                       All    Dem GOP Ind
L. Alexander    60% 22% 91% 63%     Approve     68% 46% 87% 69%
M. McWherter   29   65     4     22       Disapprove  19  35   6  19
Undec             11   na     na    na

Fav/Unfav
L. Alexander    60%/19%
M. McWherter     9 / 9

 

 

A few weeks ago, we highlighted a long list of incumbents in marginal districts that voted against State Children’s Health Insurance bill in the House. Today, I want to bring to attention all the Republican lawmakers who listened to their moral conscience and changed their votes to override the President’s veto of the S-CHIP bill that will expand health care to millions of needy children:

District	Incumbent	Party	PVI

Oh, that’s right. There WEREN’T ANY. In fact, the only vote changes on the Republican side of the aisle since last time were that Rep. Peter King (NY-03), who voted for the package originally, skipped town and failed to cast a vote against his beloved President today, and Babs Cubin (WY-AL), Wally Herger (CA-02), and Ted Poe (TX-02) actually found the time to show up and vote against children today. Bravo, folks.

So let’s take the opportunity to tally up the following Republican’ts occupying districts with a PVI of R+6 or weaker who stood shoulder-to-shoulder with George Bush today and against children and families who deserve health coverage:

District	Incumbent	Party	PVI
NJ-03	Jim Saxton	R	D+3.3
MI-09	Joe Knollenberg	R	R+0.1
OH-01	Steve Chabot	R	R+0.5
IL-11	Jerry Weller	R	R+1.1
MI-11	Thaddeus McCotter	R	R+1.2
MI-08	Mike Rogers	R	R+1.9
WI-01	Paul Ryan	R	R+2.2
MI-07	Tim Walberg	R	R+2.5
MN-02	John Kline	R	R+2.7
IL-06	Pete Roskam	R	R+2.9
FL-08	Ric Keller	R	R+3.0
NC-08	Robin Hayes	R	R+3.0
FL-24	Tom Feeney	R	R+3.1
NY-26	Tom Reynolds	R	R+3.5
MI-04	Dave Camp	R	R+4.0
CA-26	Dave Dreier	R	R+4.1
FL-07	John Mica	R	R+4.1
FL-15	Dave Weldon	R	R+4.1
FL-09	Gus Bilirakis	R	R+4.3
AL-03	Mike Rogers	R	R+4.3
FL-18	Ileana Ros-Lehtinen	R	R+4.3
NJ-05	Scott Garrett	R	R+4.4
FL-25	Mario Diaz-Balart	R	R+4.4
IL-16	Don Manzullo	R	R+4.5
CA-50	Brian Bilbray	R	R+4.6
IL-13	Judy Biggert	R	R+4.7
IL-14	Dennis Hastert	R	R+4.8
MO-06	Sam Graves	R	R+4.8
VA-04	Randy Forbes	R	R+4.9
FL-04	Ginny Brown-Waite	R	R+5.1
MN-06	Michele Bachmann	R	R+5.1
NY-29	Randy Kuhl	R	R+5.2
FL-12	Adam Putnam	R	R+5.3
NJ-11	Rodney Frelinghuysen	R	R+5.5
VA-05	Virgil Goode	R	R+5.6
NM-02	Steve Pearce	R	R+5.7
VA-02	Thelma Drake	R	R+5.9
AZ-03	John Shadegg	R	R+5.9
CA-44	Ken Calvert	R	R+6.0
CA-46	Dana Rohrabacher	R	R+6.0

Let these names be known now — they are the fringe minority that’s siding with an unpopular president against a bi-partisan bill championed by conservative Republican Senators like Chuck Grassley and Orrin Hatch. Shame on all of them–including the long list that this chart misses. Dishonorable mentions go to Democrats Jim Marshall and Gene Taylor, who both occupy steeply Republican districts, but who both need a spine transplant.

According to Roll Call, Dennis Hastert will announce his resignation from the House tomorrow:

Former Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) is expected to announce Thursday that he is resigning his seat in Congress effective later this year, eventually setting up a special election to succeed him, knowledgeable GOP sources said late Wednesday.

Rumblings have persisted for months that Hastert, who announced this summer that he would not seek re-election in 2008, was unlikely to complete his current term.

This week Hastert met with House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) and was making calls to tell people of his decision on Wednesday morning.

The article also adds that, Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich has 5 days from Hastert’s last day in office to set a date for the special election, which must take place within 115 days.  Depending on the time line of Hastert’s decision, we could see a special election coinciding with the state’s February 5th primary.  Stay tuned.

UPDATE: The Politico says that Hastert’s announcement is postponed:

Hastert initially planned to make an announcement Thursday, but has since scrapped that decision, according to one GOP aide. The former speaker, who announced his plans to retire over the summer, is still expected to leave the House some time in December, but the date of his departure – as well as his announcement – remains unclear.

Lordy, what a teaser.  Just GO.

Race Tracker: IL-14

Clark County Sheriff Gene Kelly, who was earlier considering a bid for the seat of retiring Rep. Dave Hobson (R-OH) has decided to pass on the race:

One of the Democrats recruited to run for the seat of retiring Rep. David Hobson (R-Ohio) told the Politico that he wouldn’t be entering the race and added that he didn’t “see any way” for Democrats to win the seat.

“I hate to concede already, but it’s the truth,” said Clark County Sheriff Gene Kelly. “I don’t know of a Democrat out there that can take on [state senator] Steve Austria – unless someone will move into the district.”

Immediately after Hobson’s retirement announcement, GOP state senator Steve Austria announced his candidacy. Kelly called him a very “formidable opponent” and predicted he would be able to raise sizable amount of money for the campaign.  He added that the sprawling district, covering eight counties, makes it challenging and expensive to run a district-wide campaign.

Kelly may think he’s scoring points for candidness, but why he decided to create a “Even Democrats Don’t Think Democrats Can Win” narrative is puzzling.  Why shoot the next candidate who will take on the task of running here in the foot?  We’re all well aware that this red distirct (R+6) is hardly at the top of Democratic pick-up opportunities, but Sheriff Gene “Eeyore” Kelly showed little political sense in planting a “why bother” message before the field is even set, especially since the article goes on to include this nugget:

At the same time, Democrats performed respectably in the district in last year’s congressional elections: Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland won about 58 percent of the vote, while Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown won 50 percent there.

Lame, sir.

Race Tracker: OH-07

The field is beginning to take shape in New Mexico: yesterday, it was reported that NM-02 Rep. Steve Pearce would join Rep. Heather Wilson in what is shaping up to be a contentious Republican primary, and that Democrat Patricia Madrid will not run for the seat.

While a sizable chunk of the New Mexico GOP’s small bench have thrown their hats in the race, their only statewide-elected official, State Land Commissioner Pat Lyons, has decided against running.

We’re still awaiting a decision from Lt. Governor Diane Denish (D), and rumors are circulating that Rep. Tom Udall, who crushed the GOP competition in a hypothetical poll by SUSA, may be reconsidering his decision not to run.  Stay tuned.

On a final note, in her interview with NM blogger Heath Haussamen, Madrid says that she hasn’t ruled out another run for the vacant House seat of Heather Wilson.  Advice to Patsy: let common sense prevail and enjoy your private sector career.

In an interview with Minnesota Public Radio, state Rep. Erik Paulsen, the leading Republican candidate to replace retiring Rep. Jim Ramstad (R-MN), offers his thoughts on the coming Congressional campaign:

“This is absolutely another wonderful opportunity to enter public service at a different level, focusing on issues like globalization and issues that I think that I genuinely care about and I think have learned a lot about some expertise on now and try to carry that to a new level as we do try to educate our kids for a global economy,” he said. “So that’s something in the back of my mind that definitely interests me and the opportunity, and I think I would do a good job.”

This guy needs to re-take “Soundbytes For The Media 101”.

(Hat-tip: MNPublius)

I’m Robin Weirauch. I’m running for Congress in the December 11th special election in Ohio’s 5th District and I need your support!

When I heard that President Bush had vetoed the bill expanding SCHIP, I couldn’t believe it. The State Children’s Health Insurance Program helps millions of American children whose families are struggling.

I recently spoke with a single mother from our district that told me she has worked at least two jobs her whole adult life but has never had health insurance through her work. Her daughter has been covered by the SCHIP program since infancy.  She told me she wouldn’t know what she would do without the program.

Read the rest of the story and see my video message after the jump:

She was glad to have the choice with SCHIP between three plans so that she could, for example, choose a plan that would give vision coverage for her daughter, which she has needed most of her young life.  She was not aware of the President’s veto of the expansion of the program or of the fact that the President’s budget did not provide enough funding to cover all those already in the program. She would be in serious financial trouble if her daughter’s healthcare coverage through SCHIP were not available.

She has to pay for her own insurance coverage and is forced to put off the regular checkups that are recommended until she can afford to pay the deductible.  She delays her vision checkup and replacing her glasses for much longer than recommended as she must save up to be able to afford it. If she also had to pay for her daughter’s coverage, she wouldn’t be able to take care of her own health needs.

People often ask me what difference one Representative can make in Congress? But when a 15-vote margin will decide whether American children in need will receive health care or be struck by the business end of George Bush’s veto pen, it becomes evident that every vote counts.

This is where I need your help.  We all know that the online community can  bring much needed attention to competitive special elections.  Senator Sherrod Brown and Governor Ted Strickland both won this district and I believe that we will win this special– but I need your support! 

While my Republican opponents Bob Latta and Steve Buehrer are focused on tearing each other down, I’m focused on the issues that matter to working families. Where would the Republican candidates be on this critical issue? Would they side with the bipartisan coalition fighting for children or with the President who denies them care? Voters deserve to know. They know where I stand– for kids, every time.
Please visit my website to learn more and support our campaign today!

Thank you!

Robin Weirauch