Month: October 2007

Sounds like Tom Davis has the blues.  Or at least, he’s seeing nothing but blue after his party gave former Gov. Jim Gilmore the upper hand in securing the GOP nomination and Democrat Mark Warner posted a massive $1.1 million fundraising haul in under three weeks:

But Davis said at a breakfast at the National Press Club on Tuesday that both recent developments factor into his decision and suggested that he might instead run for freshman Sen. Jim Webb’s (D-Va.) seat in 2012, or not run for Senate at all.

Davis is also a strong candidate on K Street and could  be drawn to a lobbying job.

“There are other races; this isn’t the only shot,” Davis said. “You’ve got a very vulnerable guy sitting there in the other Senate seat right now who may or may not run in four years. And you know what? If you don’t go to the Senate, so what? I’ve been a committee chairman in the House. I’ve got my portrait hanging on a wall. I’ve been pretty productive legislatively.”

There have been rumblings of late that Davis is having second thoughts about running, but he insists his mind was never made up. […]

“Our calculation has been that, if you can get everything in line, it’s a doable race,” Davis said. “But if I have to spend eight months slogging through a party convention, talking to 15,000 Republicans around the state where they’re going to ask you how conservative you are, that does not set you up very well for a general election.”

Sounds like Tommy D has lost the fire in his belly.  Who could blame him?  Perhaps he’ll wave goodbye to the House, too.

9:19PM: Tsongas declares victory.  Nothing to be too proud of in this D+10.7 district, I’m sorry to say.
9:09PM: I’m hearing that local TV stations are calling it for Tsongas.
9:06PM: BMG says Tsongas is up by 2100 votes with 147 of 196 precincts reporting.
9:02PM: With 96 of 195 precincts reporting, Tsongas is down 46%-51%.

Update: Results can be found here.  So far we’re at 59%-38% Tsongas, with only 6 of 195 precincts reporting.  Plenty of time for that lead to come back down to earth.

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It’s decision day in MA-05, where voters are going to the polls to select a replacement for Democrat Marty Meehan in the House.  We’ll update this thread as developments occur.  Turnout has been described as “light”, but it’s anyone’s guess as to whether that benefits Republican Jim Ogonowski or Democrat Niki Tsongas right now, but I’m a bit nervous.  Polls close at 8pm Eastern.

Since we still have time, let’s do a prediction contest.  (No prizes, though, other than honor and glory.)  Post your prediction for how the race will end up in the comments (percentages, please).  Remember that there are a few independent candidates in the fray, as well.

One final note, for now… I sincerely hope that this doesn’t turn out to be a microcosm for the broader campaign:

Jim Ogonowski may be a political newcomer, but the Republican has learned a thing or two during his first run for elective office.

Today, the final day before voters go to the polls in a special election to replace former Rep. Martin Meehan, Ogonowski sprinted up and down the line of cars waiting at a Dunkin’ Donuts drive-thru, seizing upon the captive audience – and open driver-side windows – to pass out campaign literature.

“Every vote counts,” the farmer and former Air Force lieutenant colonel told one driver. “We’re that close.”

Democrat Niki Tsongas, the other headliner in the race, employed a slightly less frenetic pace, visiting several senior centers and holding an ice cream social as she sought to claim for herself the House seat once held by her late husband and 1992 presidential contender, Paul Tsongas.

(Bumped – promoted by James L.)

Yesterday was the deadline for House and Senate campaigns to file their fundraising reports for the second quarter of 2007.  As promised, just like we did for the first and second quarters, we’ve amassed a list of noteworthy fundraising numbers for House incumbents and challengers.  While this list is seriously mega, it is not meant to be comprehensive.  If we’ve missed anything, please post the numbers in the comments.  And remember: these numbers are adjusted for rounding.  The second column shows cash-on-hand, and the third shows cycle-to-date fundraising.

Scroll buttons ready?  Away we go!

A few quick notes:

• Republican challengers who out-raised Democratic incumbents: Richard Goddard (GA-08), Jim Ryun (KS-02), John Stephen (NH-01), Andrew Saul (NY-19), Chris Hackett (PA-10)* (Hackett is a little iffy — his total includes a $100K personal donation, as opposed to a loan.)
  
• Democratic challengers who out-raised Republican incumbents: Darcy Burner (WA-08), Charlie Brown (CA-04), Charlie Stuart (FL-08), Nels Ackerson (IN-04), Andrew Duck (MD-06), Mark Schauer (MI-07), Linda Stender (NJ-07), Vic Wulsin (OH-02), Steve Black (OH-02), Tom Perriello (VA-05), Judy Feder (VA-10), Gary Trauner (WY-AL)
  
• Republican incumbents who were out-raised by other Republicans: Wayne Gilchrest (MD-01), John Doolittle (CA-04)
  
• Democratic incumbents who were out-raised by other Democrats: Dan Lipinski (IL-03), Dennis Kucinich (OH-10)
  
• MO-06 and WA-08: So get this.  Despite being the beneficiary of a high-profile fundraiser hosted by Republican Lord & Savior George W. Bush, Dave Reichert was out-hustled by Democrat Darcy Burner.  Compare Reichert’s haul with the total posted by Sam Graves, a Missouri Republican who received a fundraising visit from Dick Cheney.  Graves raised a very impressive $500K+ for the quarter.  I guess the President’s star power isn’t all that it’s cracked up to be anymore.
  
• WA-08: Oh, and speaking of Dave Reichert, check out his filing.  He posted an unusually large amount of contribution refunds: $47,100.  I wonder what the deal is there.
  
• Bills, bills, bills: Dig a little deeper into the filing of Alaska’s Don Young, whose expenses outweighed his receipts by a $200K margin.  What is he spending that money on?  $177,000 in legal bills to the DC law firm of Akin Gump might explain the incumbent’s diminishing (but still huge) cash-on-hand.  Will Thomas over at TPM has more in this vein.
  
• Anatomy of a Dud, Part II: Are Tim Walz and Zack Space the luckiest Dem freshmen sitting in districts that Bush carried?  Take a look at their hapless opponents, who are all posting extremely anemic fundraising numbers.
  
• VA-05 and IN-04: Where did Tom Perriello and Nels Ackerson come from?  Way to turn some heads — both candidates outraised their opponents in abbreviated fundraising quarters since announcing their House bids.
  
• MD-01: Is Wayne Gilchrest doomed?  It sure seems like Republicans are eager to make an example out of him for his support of Democratic efforts to end the war in Iraq.

The U.S. House Thursday is scheduled to vote on whether to override the President’s controversial veto of the bi-partisan State Children’s Health Insurance Program.  Rep. Mike McCaul should vote to provide more than 1.4 million uninsured Texas children the health care they need.

Unfortunately, McCaul voted against uninsured kids and for insurance industry special interests the first round.  Will he find the moral courage to do the right thing today?  Will he finally make Texas priorities his priorities?

You can help by calling Rep. McCaul’s Capitol Hill office at 202-225-2401 and asking him to vote for nearly 1.5 million eligible children of working parents who deserve the same health insurance taxpayers give him.

Last week, Rep. McCaul was quick to hand out a congressional certificate of recognition to an Austin woman honored as one of 18 child care providers across the country at the first annual National

Child Care Provider Awards.  She deserved it. Now it’s time for McCaul to recognize that uninsured Texas kids deserve his attention, too.

Call McCaul today and tell him to vote to override the Bush-Cheney veto.

the story was announced over at wapo.  i’m in class now, but here’s the article.

http://blog.washingt…

A primary will certainly help even the odds if we have a don’t have a clear candidate, and pearce, despite leading in polls, is more likely to lose due to being further right than the state as a whole.  plus, now his seat’s in play, not REALLY in play, but more than before.

 

With the retirement of long-time incumbent Pete Domenici, we are looking at an opportunity we may not see again for a long time. As many who are reading this are likely aware, on the Republican side, Reps. Heather Wilson, the pseudo-moderate representing the first district (which, unfortunately, includes my hometown of Albuquerque) and Steve Pearce, the right-winger who represents the second district (including Las Cruces) will be running against each other in order to gain the Republican nomination for the Senate. Naturally, we need a candidate who can defeat Wilson and Pearce in a general election, but we also want to elect a solid progressive who will stand up for New Mexican citizens, not the corporations.

 

You have all probably already read about the various sites which are already working on drafting Congressman Tom Udall to run for the senate, and many of you are probably asking an important question: why is it so important, not only to support Rep. Udall in a run for senate, but to actively work on drafting him for it?

Tom Udall is a strong progressive who will fight for the people of New Mexico, not the business interests. According to the non-partisan group Project Vote Smart, in 2006, he was given a 100% by NARAL, Planned Parenthood, Citizens for Tax Justice, the National Education Association, the National Association of Elementary School Principals (2005), the National Parent Teacher Association (2004), the League of Conservation Voters, the American Wilderness Coalition, Americans United for the Separation of Church and State, the American Civil Liberties Union, the Alliance for Retired Americans, the AFL-CIO, the SEIU, United Auto Workers, the Children’s Defense Fund, the Arc, the American Public Health Association, Disabled American Veterans, and the American Association of University Women; as well as a 95% from the Public Interest Research Group, the National Organization of Women, and the Leadership Conference on Civil Rights (96%).

In addition to being a solid progressive, Tom Udall is also the strongest Democratic candidate we can muster (except, perhaps for Gov. Richardson, and I think we can all agree we’d like to see Bill as Secretary of State or Vice-President). According to CNN’s Election 2006 and Election 2004 Rep. Udall has won his district by 75% of the vote in 2006 and 70%, compared to Rep. Pearce who only won with 60% of the vote in both 2004 and 2006, and Rep. Wilson only barely broke 50% in 2006 and 55% in 2004. According to a recent Survey USA poll; Udall had an 18 point advantage against both Pearce (55-37) and Wilson (56-38). To put this in perspective, Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez, who is the only major Democrat to declare his candidacy, loses to Pearce by 21 points (35-56) and to Wilson by 4 (44-48). In addition, Tom Udall starts off with state-wide recognition after being New Mexico’s Attorney General during the 1990s. 

In Tom Udall, we have both a solid progressive and a strong candidate to run against either Heather Wilson or Steve Pearce. As such, it is critical we draft Tom Udall for the Senate, not only to strengthen the Democratic majority in congress, but to put a solid progressive and advocate for all New Mexicans. After considering all of this, it should no longer be a question of why we critically need Rep. Udall in the Senate, and anyone who is looking for a strong candidate and a strong progressive voice in the Senate; you should support our movement to draft Tom Udall for Senate.

First let me say right from the start that I would love to have seen Larry Kissell bring in $500,000 this quarter.  He brought in a little over $80,000 to put toward 2008 and he brought in almost $30,000 to pay off debt from last cycle’s efforts.  Kissell raised over $110,000 and he did not lose ground, he did not go into debt, he’s well ahead of where he was this quarter last cycle and his poll numbers are kicking ass. 

Third quarter 2005 Larry Kissell hadn’t raised enough to report to the FEC.  If you add the money he’s raised toward 2008 and the money raised on the old account for debt reduction, Larry Kissell has raised $309,018.27 which puts him about $309,018.27 ahead of where he was this time last cycle.  As a matter of fact, it wasn’t until the October quarterly reported in 2006 that Larry had raised over $300,000 and it was still less than where he stands today.

How did Robin Hayes do?  Cycle-to-date Robin Hayes has raised about $250,000 more than he had raised at this point in 2005, however, he has over $20,000 less COH and is hemorrhaging money to try and salvage his poll numbers.  Hayes brought in $352,161 and has raised a total of about $850,716 this cycle.  In 2005 Hayes pulled in $183,279 for the quarter and was at $600,653 cycle-to-date.  In 2005 at the end of the 3rd quarter, Hayes had $547,119 COH and this quarter he has only $521,108 COH.

Where is the money going?

Hayes spent over $116,000 on printing, fundraising consulting, mailing list rentals and direct mail.  Some of those charges were paid toward the end of the quarter, so results from the efforts are pending.  Last quarter Hayes spent about $42,000 on direct mail and he appears to be going in the hole.  If he keeps this up, Kissell will have no trouble catching up with his COH figure.

I don’t know how much of Hayes’ direct mail expenditures went toward fundraising and how much went toward salvaging his name.  He recently voted against affordable healthcare for a large number of children in his district.  He makes it sound sterile by calling it SCHIP (State Children’s Health Insurance Program), but what he did was vote to deny healthcare to a majority of the children eligible for the program in the 8th district.

Currently, just over 20,000 children are eligible to receive healthcare through SCHIP which is about a 76.33% increase over the number eligible in 2000.  Many of these children are eligible because their parents have lost their jobs as a direct or indirect result of Hayes’ CAFTA vote.  Many people in the 8th District find themselves taking jobs that don’t have benefits just so they can feed and house their families.  They need low cost insurance for their families, especially their children.  Robin Hayes’ hometown of Concord has seen the highest increase in need for the program and Philip Morris hasn’t even closed yet.  The number of eligible children will skyrocket once that happens.

Robin Hayes doesn’t really care about the kids, though.  He’s far more worried about whether the rest of the country thinks folks in Concord have cooties.  He’s spent more time whining about a few inoculation recommendations than he has trying to find a solution for SCHIP funding.

What an ass.

Most of y’all know I’ve been a big Kissell supporter for a long time.  I know how hard this man is running and it is still early.  He teaches school every day, spends time with his wife and daughers as a family and makes his way to every possible event throughout the district.  This is the hardest working candidate I know.

I propose that in honor of the growing number of children eligible for SCHIP in the 8th District (up 76.33%) we each contribute $76.33 to the man who won’t deny these children health insurance.  Please go here and give $76.33 to Larry Kissell.  Snail mail and Paypal can be found here.

Robin Hayes is running scared. He’s running harder than he’s ever run, earlier than he’s ever started running before. Funny thing is, it looks like Hayes is just running in place.

As always, thank you for all you do to help Larry Kissell in his bid for NC’s 8th Congressional District seat.  You’re helping to turn NC blue and we can’t thank you enough.

Tomorrow, as we all know, voters in Massachusetts fifth district will vote en masse (10% if that) in the special election to replace Marty Meehan.  Despite the overwhelmingly liberal lean of the district, many have become worried due to the lackluster campaign of Niki Tsongas.  Despite the strong personal story of Jim Ogonowski, and Tsongas’ poor campaign, I strongly doubt she’ll lose simply because it’s Massachusetts.  I could easily be wrong of course, that’s just my thought. 

  To the point however, should she win by a hair, (by which I’d classify by less than five percent) this might prompt Ogonowski to challenge john Kerry in the senate race.  Hackett almost beat Schmidt, then tried to challenge dewine and I think the same could happen here.  The biggest reason for this is that the Massachusetts republicans have a practically nonexistent bench.  Hackett was forced out for the 06 senate race, but the Ohio dems had an okay bench back then, no where as good as it is now, but not as bad the Massachusetts republicans.  If Ogonowski is drafted to challenge Kerry, the NRSC may be tempted to throw away millions into a race ultimately they can’t win without a massive anti-democratic/anti-incumbent mood.  Millions wasted there is millions that can’t be spent in Alaska, Nebraska ect etc.  a close race won’t look good on paper, but somehow I doubt it’ll be remembered in November.  So tomorrow, let’s hope for a victory, just one small enough for them to get Ogonowski to jump into the senate race.

(crossposted to Dkos)

President Kennedy once invoked the old axiom that “a raising tide lifts all boats.”

He might have been thinking about the fortunes of Democrats in the State of Ohio. What an INCREDIBLE change since 2004, when Ohio, thanks in large part to “values voters” who turned out to support an idiotic Hate Amendment to the state Constitution, thereby returning the Shrub to the White House by 218,000 votes.

First came 2006: Sherrod Brown goes to the Senate and Ted Strickland leads a near sweep of statewide offices (notable exception: the state Supremes, now all neo-con.) But we only picked up one US House seat, by Zach Space, in OH-18.The GOP thinks that they can take Zach out. FAT CHANCE! Zach raised $274519.00 with $591905.47 Cash on Hand. It’s a VERY tough District but Zach can get the job done.

So let’s review how things are going heading into the US House elections. It’s pretty amazing. There are FOUR open seats, three by retirement, and one death. That’s out of a total of 18 Districts in the state.

And all of the open seats had been held by Republicans.

And unfortunately for the GOP, in OH-02, Mean Jean Schmidt DIDN’T decide to retire!

Folks,in the last several election cycles, it was not uncommon for Democratic Congressional challengers to raise so little money that they didn’t even have to file ANY reports (let alone quarterly.) Let’s take a gander at today’s FEC filings:(my how things have changed!!!!)

First things first, Robin Weirauch is already up and running for the OH-05 special election following the death of Paul Gillmor. She had her crew have been out working HARD. She has been endorsed by most of the county Democratic Party organizations and with the withdrawal of her only significant primary challenger, is overwhelmingly the presumptive nominee. (Because it’s a special election, the FEC reporting schedule is a little different.)

In OH-01, State House Minority leader Steve Dreihaus is taking on Rep Steve Chabot. Driehaus raised $120612.31 with $251011.77 CoH. Steve is a veteran campaigner who is going to run an excellent campaign.

In OH-07, GOP Rep. Dave Hobson has announced his retirement and the DCCC and ODP are working to recruit a top level candidate for the District.It’s very tough District but as an open seat, everything changes. Stay tuned!

In OH-14, former appellate Judge Bill O’Neill has set fundraising records for a Democrat in the District.His totals for his first quarter of fundraising:$102872.00 with $77976.74 on hand.

In OH-15, where Rep. Deb Pryce has decided not to run again, Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Killroy raised $342423.64 this quarter, with $383659.05 CoH. So far, the GOP has gotten nothing but rejections for their attempts to find SOMEBODY to run for this seat, following Pryce’s decision not to run again.

In OH-16, where Ralph Regula FINALLY made his decision to retire public,  Air Force Major and State Senator John Boccieri was able to raise $118857.83 with $224847.24 CoH.

Once again, OHIO is clearly going to be the compelling story of this election cycle.

The intense focus on the presidential primaries and the 2008 elections make it easy to forget that there are places around the country with important races this year. The 2007 Virginia legislative elections are a perfect example of this phenomenon. The State Senate elected this year will vote on the creation of new congressional districts following the next census – affecting state and national politics for the next decade.  If Democrats want to expand the playing field for presidential and congressional elections, it is essential that we do not allow the Republicans to redraw the lines again in 2010.  The entire State Senate is up for election and the Democrats only need to pick up 4 seats to end the Republican majority.

Two of the best opportunities to grab seats in the Virginia Senate are Janet Oleszek (Fairfax) and Albert Pollard (Stafford County, Northern Neck).  Their campaigns are working hard to turn these critical seats blue, and judging by the dirty politics being practiced by their opponents, the Republicans are terrified.  Janet’s opponent, ultra-conservative Ken Cuccinelli, has repeatedly either misrepresented or lied about her record and positions. (Check out GoodbyeKen.com’s blog for a full accounting of his misbehavior.) But recently Cuccinelli sunk to a new low when he sent voters a manila envelope that read: “Notice: Your new Fairfax County income tax payment is due,” with the sender identified in bold letters as the “Fairfax County Income Tax Authority” (which does not exist).  Of course, voters who opened the letter expecting to receive a notice from the government instead found a Cuccinelli campaign flyer attacking Oleszek.

When asked about the deceptive mailer, Cuccinelli tried to say that it was a “gimmick” and part of his “marketing campaign.”  Well, Cuccinelli may think that it’s OK to play games with Virginia voters, but this type of deception is unacceptable – especially when it is used to mislead people like the elderly.

Albert’s opponent in the race for Virginia’s 28th Senate district, Republican Richard Stuart, has been telling Virginians that Albert voted to tax farmers and small businesses.  The truth is Albert introduced a bill in the Virginia House of Delegates to exempt farmers and small businesses from having to pay the estate tax.

It is critical that we do not allow Republicans to steal any more elections with this type of duplicitous behavior. We at 21st Century Democrats are committed to helping candidates like Janet and Albert combat Republican misinformation campaigns. We have launched a ‘Virginia – Red to Blue – Action Plan’ to replace dishonest Republicans with dynamic, forward-thinking Democrats committed to effecting positive change.

(If you are in the Washington, DC metropolitan area you can come knock on doors with us and help these candidates win by talking directly to voters. If interested, please contact us at info@21stdems.org) 

This election is critical! We simply cannot allow the Republicans to continue to win by distorting Democrats positions and playing on voters fears. Please donate some time or money over the next 22 days and let’s make sure that Virginia voters get the Democrats’ REAL records — not misleading Republican rhetoric.