Month: April 2008

The DCCC’s latest expenditures in Louisiana:

$257,000 on producing an airing an ad against Woody Jenkins.

$2,280 on field organizing for Don Cazayoux.

$16,600 on direct mail against Woody Jenkins.

Total spent to date: $649,046

The GOP’s latest expenditures in Louisiana:

$130,000 from the NRCC on ads against Don Cazayoux

$94,000 by anti-union businessman Leonard Grisby on producing and airing an ad against Cazayoux

$94,000 from the Club For Growth PAC on an ad against Cazayoux

Total spent to date: NRCC: $250,104 | Freedom’s Watch: $502,000 | Grisby: $159,000 | Club For Growth: $94,000

The NRCC and its allies have dumped a whole lotta scrilla in this race against Don Cazayoux, pushing the narrative that he’s a taxaholic.  Suspiciously, several of these ads are awfully similar in style and language, despite being produced by different groups.  For instance, just the other day, Freedom’s Watch and the NRCC both put up ads slamming Cazayoux for supporting Barack Obama’s health care plan.

The DCCC is hitting back with a second legal complaint against the apparent coordination.  In the diaries, Ryan has more.

Special election: 5/3.

In his 35 years, Andrew Rice has accomplished a lot.

He represents a diverse Oklahoma City district in the state senate, where he has established himself as a consensus-builder and a strong advocate for children and families.  As a freshman senator, he has already built an impressive legislative record that includes cosponsoring and helping pass the “All Kids Act” – legislation similar to SCHIP – and forming a bipartisan coalition to create the Hunger Task Force, in order to find solutions to Oklahoma’s hunger crisis.

Before his election to the state senate, he received a master’s degree in theology, worked with the Texas Freedom Network, founded the Progressive Alliance Foundation, and performed other humanitarian work abroad.  After his brother, David, was killed on 9/11 in the World Trade Center, Andrew became heavily involved in the push for the creation of the 9/11 Commission and worked with victims’ family groups in opposing the Iraq War, citing it as a distraction from the fight to destroy the terrorist networks that killed his brother.

Not bad for someone turning 35 today.

(more below)

By contrast, Rice’s U.S. Senate opponent, Jim Inhofe, has been in politics for 40 years and has best served the special interests that back him.

His voting record has earned him the label of a “hard-core conservative” in an analysis by ontheissues.org, which also states that Inhofe, among other things, “Opposes” federal efforts to expand health care access, and “Strongly Opposes” finding alternatives to coal and oil for our energy needs.

His campaign contributors are described in his own words (from a 2006 Senate floor speech):

“I am reminded of a question the media often asks me about how much I have received in campaign contributions from the fossil fuel industry. My unapologetic answer is ‘Not Enough'[.]”

Meanwhile, Andrew Rice keeps working toward our future.  But Andrew sees more that he can do in his lifetime of service.  He’s running for U.S. Senate to continue his life’s work of fighting for everyday people, of listening to their hopes and concerns, and taking action to address the issues that affect them most.

Will you wish Andrew a happy birthday by buying a piece of his campaign?  It seems fitting to ask that you send him $35 today.  Give him the gift that keeps on giving, and the gift that gives back to all of us – because if Andrew Rice is elected to the U.S. Senate, we’ll all be better off.

Best,

Karina Henderson

Rice for US Senate

andrewforoklahoma.com

http://actblue.com/entity/fundraisers/18228

The following states still have upcoming filing deadlines:

State	Deadline
Florida	5/2/2008
Georgia	5/2/2008
Michigan	5/13/2008
Nevada	5/16/2008
Connecticut	5/24/2008
Colorado	5/29/2008
Wyoming	5/30/2008
Alaska	6/2/2008
Massachusetts	6/3/2008
Arizona	6/4/2008
Oklahoma	6/4/2008
Washington	6/6/2008
Kansas	6/10/2008
New Hampshire	6/13/2008
Rhode Island	6/25/2008
Wisconsin	7/8/2008
Louisiana	7/11/2008
Minnesota	7/15/2008
New York	7/17/2008
Vermont	7/21/2008
Hawaii	7/22/2008
Delaware	7/25/2008

The thing is, at least on the federal level, there aren’t too many interesting seats left to fill. Also, it’s getting awfully late. Last cycle, almost every plausibly competitive challenger had filed by now. One of the few who did not, Dave Mejias in NY-03 on Long Island, gave Peter King his toughest re-election fight ever, but was hampered by his late start. Mejias didn’t get in until late May, but that was only because another candidate, David Denenberg, himself entered late and then dropped out just two days after announcing.

Disappointingly, NY-03 appears to be without a candidate deep into the season once more. I’d hate to give King a free ride. In any event, are there any other unfilled races in the states on this list that you think we might have any kind of shot at?

Hat Tip to The Stakeholder AND cross-posted at Daily Kingfish.

The DCCC has filed a second complaint against the NRCC and Freedoms Watch for:

• Running a political attack ad that directly and illegally advocates the defeat of a Democratic candidate AND
• failing to disclose the names of the donors funding that ad

They’ve even made a video outlining their case:

On the heels of her statewide advertising blitz, Democrat Kay Hagan is putting some distance between her campaign and that of her primary opponent, Jim Neal, according to the latest SurveyUSA poll (4/19-21, likely voters, 4/5-7 in parens):

Kay Hagan (D): 38 (21)

Jim Neal (D): 16 (20)

(MoE: ±3.7%)

With more resources at her disposal than Neal, it would be a surprise for Neal to make up this lost ground over the next few weeks.

Last week, the Blue Dog Coalition of conservative House Democrats offered their endorsement to Travis Childers, who has been running a hard-charging campaign for the R+10 open seat left behind by Roger Wicker.

That was awfully nice of them, but how meaningful is their endorsement? Let’s take a look at Childers’ fundraising so far and see how many Blue Dogs have sent donations to Childers:

District	Member	MS-01 Donation
NY-24	Mike Arcuri	$0
CA-43	Joe Baca	$0
GA-12	John Barrow	$0
IL-08	Melissa Bean	$0
AR-01	Marion Berry	$0
GA-02	Sanford Bishop	$0
OK-02	Dan Boren	$0
IA-03	Leonard Boswell	$0
FL-02	Allen Boyd	$0
CA-18	Dennis Cardoza	$0
PA-10	Chris Carney	$0
KY-06	Ben Chandler	$0
TN-05	Jim Cooper	$0
CA-20	Jim Costa	$0
AL-05	Bud Cramer	$0
TN-04	Lincoln Davis	$0
IN-02	Joe Donnelly	$0
IN-08	Brad Ellsworth	$0
IL-14	Bill Foster	$0
AZ-08	Gabrielle Giffords	$0
NY-20	Kirsten Gillibrand	$0
TN-06	Bart Gordon	$0
CA-36	Jane Harman	$0
IN-09	Baron Hill	$0
PA-17	Tim Holden	$0
NY-02	Steve Israel	$0
TX-22	Nick Lampson	$0
FL-16	Tim Mahoney	$0
UT-02	Jim Matheson	$0
LA-03	Charlie Melancon	$1,000
NC-07	Mike McIntyre	$0
ME-02	Mike Michaud	$0
KS-03	Dennis Moore	$0
PA-08	Patrick Murphy	$0
MN-07	Collin Peterson	$0
ND-AL	Earl Pomeroy	$0
AR-04	Mike Ross	$0
CO-03	John Salazar	$0
CA-47	Loretta Sanchez	$0
SD-AL	Stephanie Herseth Sandlin	$0
CA-29	Adam Schiff	$0
NC-11	Heath Shuler	$0
GA-13	David Scott	$0
OH-18	Zack Space	$0
TN-08	John Tanner	$2,000
MS-04	Gene Taylor	$2,000
CA-01	Mike Thompson	$0
OH-06	Charlie Wilson	$0

And no donations from the Blue Dog PAC, either. With the exceptions of Reps. Melancon, Taylor, and Tanner (the latter of which actually took the time to campaign with Childers), this is a pretty pathetic show of support from the Blue Dogs in an extremely winnable race, especially when you consider just how flush with cash the Blue Dogs are.

When Blue Dogs and their allies keep telling us that Democrats need to compete in the South to succeed as a party, how can we possibly take them seriously if they won’t even put their money where their mouths are? Here we have an extremely viable race with an economically populist, socially conservative candidate in Travis Childers leading the charge. Yet, the Blue Dogs have mostly ignored him. What gives?

Granted, several members of the Blue Dog Coalition are facing tough re-election fights, and I wouldn’t expect them to be parting with any cash-on-hand at this point in time. But the vast majority of these members are not facing daunting re-election campaigns, and I would hope that they would loosen their purse strings and contribute $2000 (the maximum allowable amount from a member’s campaign account) or more if they have a leadership PAC to help Childers replenish his war chest. As he gears up to take on Republican Greg Davis one more time in the face of what will likely be fierce NRCC and 527 opposition, he’s going to need all the help he can get.

Blue Dogs: it’s time to step up to the plate.

I have been blogging for Heather Ryan, and been a proud member of Ryan for Kentucky for a little over a month now. I have started my own ActBlue page in support of Heather, and asked my fellow Democrats around the country to contribute to Americans for Ryan. Well, many of you have responded, and I am very grateful. I have said that your contribution will be put to work immediately to defeat a sitting incumbent Republican and expand our Congressional majorities.

Well, the good news is the fruits of our labor are paying off!! Because of our netroots support, and support from all over the district we have been able to get a head start during primary season, a primary Heather is unopposed in, and have been able to get Heather’s name out there right now!! A quick drive around my hometown of Paducah lets me see just how valuable your support is, and it also shows me how Ryan for Kentucky is catching on with my neighbors here in Paducah. So, without delay I want to share with you the fruits of our labor!!! Driving around Paducah today, I saw a Ryan for Kentucky prescense!!:

This is just the start!! Democrats in Kentucky’s First District have a candidate they can be proud of!! Heather Ryan is young, smart, and ready to fight for our ideals!! They know that she will fight for the working American even harder than Exxon Eddie fights for billions of dollars in taxpayer funded corporate welfare:

The Budget Reconciliation Bill, signed by President Bush and passed by Congress, cut future spending for Medicare, Medicaid, Student Loans and even free and reduced lunches for poor children; all while giving a $2.3 Billion tax break to Oil Companies and affording a $5.7 billion slush fund to Pharmaceutical Companies (both of which Representative Ed Whitfield has personal financial investments and large campaign contributions).  Corporate welfare for profitable companies who donate heavily to Congressmen is corrupt and scandalous.  I will

work diligently against the culture of corruption which permeates the political system.

http://www.ryanforkentucky.com…

Yes, the citizens of Kentucky’s First District are waking up to the fact that Exxon Ed Whitfield will never lead in trying to bring about the changes we need. This is because not only has he taken tens of thousands in special interest money, but because he is actually invested in and profiting from the policies that impeed progress. Yes, Exxon Eddie will keep doling out welfare to Corporate America, because he is invested in them, not the workers of Kentucky.

We need a REAL Representative in Kentucky’s First District. We need a Representative that understands our citizens because she lives and works among them. We need a Representative that is invested in the working men and women of this district and indeed the whole country, not Exxon, Chevron and the Big Drug companies. We need Heather Ryan for Kentucky!!

Thanks so much for making this all happen. We are so proud of our grassroots support both within and without the district. Heather is very good at making every penney count as you can see.

Our race is just getting started. If we get the resources we need, we WILL defeat Exxon Ed Whitfield this fall and return this seat to where it was for generations, Democratic hands. To do this we need your continued support!! Please consider supporting me in my attempt to raise $1500 for Heather by May 20. As you can see, your money IS going to work IMMEDIATELY to expand our Congressional majorities. Please support the continuation of our work here:

http://www.actblue.com/page/am…

To those of you who have already supported Americans for Ryan, you have my humble thanks. Together, we WILL make a difference in this race and our Congress!!!

Best wishes fellow Democrats!!

462 of 462 Precincts Reporting

Candidate	Party	Votes	Percent
Travis Childers	(D)	33,138	49%
Greg Davis	(R)	31,066	46%
Steve Holland	(D)	782	1%
Glenn McCullough	(R)	957	1%
Wally Pang	(I)	724	1%
John Wages	(G)	397	1%

RESULTS: Northeast Mississippi Daily Journal | Columbus Dispatch | WCBI | Clarion-Ledger

11:09PM: Ladies and gentlemen — give it up for SSP’s Trent Thompson!  With all the votes in, Childers is sitting at 49.39% and short 409 votes of an outright victory tonight — awfully close to his projection at 10:45.

10:54PM (Trent): With a little more help, Childers could have put this race away tonight. Let’s help make sure we don’t have the same regrets on runoff night.

10:45PM: SSP’s Trent Thompson: “If the other Prentiss boxes come in at the county’s percentages, Childers gets 49.367 and would have needed 400 more votes to top 50.”

10:42PM: Wow, we came SO CLOSE to winning a seat in Mississippi tonight, but the AP just called this as going to a runoff on May 13th.  So close, yet so far.

10:31PM: NOTE — The Dispatch has 100% of the Clay County numbers in, and they split 65-29 (1,609-722) for Childers.  These are NOT reflected in the numbers above.

10:25PM: NOTE — The Clarion/AP numbers don’t count Clay county yet, but the Columbus Dispatch shows Childers carrying the county with 63%.

10:23PM: Childers has pulled ahead by 300 votes!

10:14PM: It’s close — 47% Childers, 48% Davis.  There’s probably not enough votes out there to put Childers above the top, but the good news is that the votes likely aren’t there for Davis, either.

9:59PM: 47% Childers, 49% Davis.  This is gonna be tight.

9:42PM: Check the Clarion-Ledger for the best results.  DeSoto is ALL in, so there’s a chance that Childers will force a runoff here.

9:31PM: Damn!  Davis has pulled ahead.  Are we seeing DeSoto come in?

9:06PM: A word of caution — I don’t know if Davis’ homebase, GOP-heavy DeSoto county, has started to report yet.  I suspect that it has not.  Brace yourselves for it, though.

9:03PM Eastern: In Lowndes County, Childers only trails Davis by 4.  This is a pretty Republican county, so I take that as good news for Childers.

---

Polls close at 7PM Central/8PM Eastern in Mississippi’s 1st Congressional District.  We’ll be tracking the returns above as they come in.

Feel free to use the grace period to post your predictions in the comments.

For what it’s worth, here were the vote totals from the April 1st primary runoff:

Candidate	Votes
Travis Childers	20,729
Steve Holland	15,439
Greg Davis	16,830
Glenn McCullough	16,305

Polls close in Pennsylvania at 8PM Eastern.  

There are only four races worth watching in the Keystone state tonight, and the Pennsylvania Department of State will be posting the returns as they come in:

PA-03 (D): Results

PA-05 (D & R): Results

PA-10 (R): Results

PA-18 (D): Results

The Swing State Project’s rundown of these races can be found here.

(From the diaries – promoted by DavidNYC)

From the Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics at Indiana University-Purdue University Fort Wayne (likely voters, 4/14-16):

Jill Long Thompson (D): 47%

Jim Schellinger(D): 41%

Undecided: 12%

(MoE: ±4.2%)

Jim Schellinger (D): 46%

Mitch Daniels (R-inc.): 47%

Jill Long Thompson (D): 47%

Mitch Daniels (R-inc.): 48%

(MoE: ±2.8%)

“My Man Mitch” Daniels also uttered a heretical statement in front of a group of Republicans, stating that it’s “time to let Ronald Reagan go.”