Month: April 2008

The Tupelo-based Northeast Mississippi Daily Journal endorsed Democrat Travis Childers this morning:

Travis Childers of Booneville, the top vote-getter among all candidates in party primaries completed on April 1, is the best candidate on the ballot. Childers is the Prentiss County Chancery Clerk, and his successful, positive and issues-focused campaign in the Democratic primary helped put him in the November general election. […]

Davis unfortunately continues in the special election the same timbre of intensely negative campaigning he used against McCullough in the Republican primary. While negative campaigning crafted by cynical political professionals has sadly become commonplace in elections today, Davis – with assistance in the special election campaign from the National Republican Congressional Committee – has focused on distortions of his opponents’ records and attacks on their personal integrity that are beyond the muddied norm.

This is precisely the kind of scorched-earth politics we need less of in Washington, not more. […]

Childers stands squarely in the mainstream of a long line of people who have ably represented our total 1st District region’s interests in the U.S House.

We support his election.

Special election: 4/22; runoff (if necessary): 5/13.

This just in: the DCCC has announced that congressional challengers Ashwin Madia (MN-03) and Walt Minnick (ID-01) have been added to the Red to Blue program.  Madia, fresh off the official endorsement of the state Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party in Minnesota, is running for the open seat vacated by the retiring Jim Ramstad (R).  Madia is a particularly notable figure because of his humble roots– he grew up in poverty, the son of immigrants from India– and because of his service as a Marine in the Iraq War.  His only Republican opponent at this time is State Rep. Erik Paulsen.

Walt Minnick is a Harvard-educated businessman and an advocate for environmental conservation.  He has a moderate track record in terms of his work for both political parties.  In running against Congressman Bill Sali, Minnick will give residents of the Boise region a chance to be represented by a competent person, rather than a complete nutjob.

So, congrats to both, and bravo to the DCCC– strength in numbers!  Woohoo!

The NRCC’s expenditures for the day:

• LA-06: $10,000 on a poll.
• MS-01: $8,800 on a poll, and $32,666 on direct mail against Democrat Travis Childers.
• The NRCC’s expenditures to date:
  
  MS-01: $274,140 | LA-06: $120,194

The DCCC’s bill for the day:

• LA-06: $23,223 on direct mail against Republican Woody Jenkins, and $2,420 on field organizing for Don Cazayoux.
• The DCCC’s expenditures to date:
  
  MS-01: $126,576 | LA-06: $322,807

Mary Christine and Associates for the Republican Main Street Partnership (likely voters, 4/9-10):

Jim Ryun (R): 50%

Lynn Jenkins (R): 34%

(MoE: ±5%)

With Kansas’ primary on August 5th, Jenkins has time to make up the missing ground here, but Ryun is sitting in a strong position in the money race and the polls.  Will the Kansas GOP really embrace a “moderate” like Jenkins, the state’s treasurer?

Well, well.  It looks like a familiar face is reemerging to take on frosh GOP Rep. Vern Buchanan — only this time, as an independent:

In what could be a damaging blow to Democratic hopes of winning the 13th Congressional District seat, former party nominee Jan Schneider has filed to run again for the seat, but this time as an independent.

“I’ve had it with both political parties,” said Schneider, 60, who will be making her fourth try for the seat.

Schneider says she will run as an anti-war candidate dedicated to bringing the troops home.

Schneider hasn’t made her decision final, but her move to split the anti-GOP vote is tantamount to running for the “Stay in Iraq Forever” Party.  Consider the golden material that Buchanan is offering Democrat Christine Jennings:

Buchanan, 56, could not be reached for comment. But Tim Clarke, a campaign spokesman, said Buchanan continues to support President George W. Bush’s views on the war. He said Buchanan wants to fight the terrorists “over there instead of over here.”

You couldn’t ask for a dumber statement, yet Schneider is content to allow this Bush-enabler to saunter his way to a second term.  And the reason why?  She’s offended for not being shown the attention she clearly deserves from the DCCC!

She said she considered running as a Democrat, but the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has not returned her phone calls.

“They don’t want me in their party,” Schneider said.

Wonderful.  Schneider, born in 1947, celebrates her sixth birthday this summer.

Now this is something.  Lynn Caligiuri, who served as GOP Rep. Wayne Gilchrest’s campaign and finance director since 1999, has joined the campaign of Democrat and state’s attorney Frank Kratovil a few months after the moderate Gilchrest was defeated in a primary by the Club For Growth-backed nutcase Andy Harris.  From the Politico:

Lynn Caligiuri, who worked on all of Gilchrest’s reelection campaigns, called Kratovil’s campaign “the best opportunity to continue the thoughtful, moderate approach that Gilchrest has brought to the district for nearly two decades” and endorsed the Democrat. […]

“Obviously many of us were disappointed in the Republican primary results, but we now have an opportunity to send someone to Washington to continue to represent our values and end the partisan attacks and divisiveness that has rendered Congress ineffective and unresponsive,” said Caligiuri. “Frank Kratovil is the right choice.”

Could this be a harbinger of a Gilchrest endorsement for Kratovil?

Jane Mitakides, a Responsible Plan endorsee running in the Ohio Third, has reported $164,252.53 in total receipts for the first quarter of fundraising.

With money coming in at more than twice the rate of her opponent, Jane will be able to run an aggressive campaign that builds on the record-breaking Democratic turn-out in the March 4th primary and the changing dynamic of a district that is trending blue.

Some speculate that Mike Turner’s dwindling support is due to ethical issues and frequent exaggerations that are affecting his campaign’s bottom-line.

Jane Mitakides, a Responsible Plan endorsee running in the Ohio Third, has reported $164,252.53 in total receipts for the first quarter of fundraising.

With money coming in at more than twice the rate of her opponent, Jane will be able to run an aggressive campaign that builds on the record-breaking Democratic turn-out in the March 4th primary and the changing dynamic of a district that is trending blue.

Some speculate that Mike Turner’s dwindling support is due to ethical issues and frequent exaggerations that are affecting his campaign’s bottom-line.

With her strong grassroots support, Jane won a competitive three-way primary with more votes than her opponents combined, and she still held on to more of her first-quarter raised cash than her opponent, who has spent more than he raised in Q1, even though he was unopposed in the primary.

Fundraising is a tangible measure of support for a race, and it’s big news when a challenger is consistently out-raising an incumbent.  It shows that voters are ready to make change happen and finally end the era of back-room deals and no-bid contracts.

This is a winnable race, but we still have a long way to go – and we’re counting on you to help!

Learn more about Jane at Jane Mitakides for Congress and be a part of the campaign by contributing!

(From the diaries with minor edits – promoted by DavidNYC)

Below is a handy table of all the verifiable House polls I could find for the current election cycle. Special election polls are only included for upcoming elections, not for those that are already over. Every poll contains a link and an exact date range. Polling for candidates who have dropped out or decided against running is not included.

Cross posted from Election Inspection.

District	Incumbent	Poll	Dem Candidate	%	Rep Candidate	%
AL-02	Terry Everett (R)	Anzalone Liszt 10/2-10/4	Bobby Bright	43	Harri Anne Smith	38
AL-02	Terry Everett (R)	Anzalone Liszt 10/2-10/4	Bobby Bright	46	Jay Love	27
AL-05	Bud Cramer (D)	Capital Survey Research Center 4/1	Parker Griffith	48	Wayne Parker	32
AK-AL	Don Young (R)	Research 2000 12/3-12/6	Ethan Berkowitz	49	Don Young	42
AZ-08	Gabby Giffords (D)	Summit Group (R) 12/3-12/4	Gabby Giffords	36	Tim Bee	30
FL-13	Vern Buchanan (R)	Public Opinion Strategies 3/5-3/6	Christine Jennings	37	Vern Buchanan	53
FL-24	Tom Feeney (R)	Garin-Hart-Yang 7/9-7/11	Suzanne Kosmas	23	Tom Feeney	42
IL-10	Mark Kirk (R)	Garin-Hart-Yang 2/7-2/8	Dan Seals	39	Mark Kirk	46
LA-06	Richard Baker (R)	Anzalone Liszt 4/8-4/10	Don Cazayoux	49	Woody Jenkins	42
LA-06	Richard Baker (R)	Anzalone Liszt 3/16-3/20	Don Cazayoux	49	Woody Jenkins	44
MD-01	Wayne Gilchrest (R)	Moore Information 1/15-1/16	Frank Kratovil	22	Andy Harris	37
MI-07	Tim Walberg (R)	EPIC-MRA 2/27-3/2	Mark Schauer	40	Tim Walberg	51
MI-09	Joe Knollenberg (R)	Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 10/31-11/02	Gary Peters	35	Joe Knollenberg	42
MS-01	Roger Wicker (R)	Anzalone Liszt 4/3-4/7	Travis Childers	41	Greg Davis	40
NM-01	Heather Wilson (R)	Public Opinion Strategies (R) 10/8-10/9	Martin Heinrich	33	Darren White	51
NY-25	Jim Walsh (R)	Global Strategy Group (D) 2/16-2/20	Dan Maffei	41	Peter Cappuccilli	29
NC-08	Robin Hayes (R)	Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 11/13-11/15	Larry Kissell	49	Robin Hayes	47
OH-02	Jean Schmidt (R)	Tarrance Group (R) 3/11-3/12	Vic Wulsin	33	Jean Schmidt	51
PA-10	Chris Carney (D)	Momentum Analysis 12/6-12/9	Chris Carney	53	Dan Meuser	23
PA-10	Chris Carney (D)	Momentum Analysis 12/6-12/9	Chris Carney	55	Chris Hackett	21
TX-07	John Culberson (R)	IVR 4/8	Michael Skelly	39	John Culberson	57
WY-AL	Barbara Cubin (R)	Mason-Dixon 1/18-1/21	Gary Trauner	41	Cynthia Lummis	40

Based on the polling above, Democrats are likely to pick up at least 5-10 seats, and that’s with many competitive races yet unpolled and many campaigns just starting to rev up. Although there are a few seats held by Democrats that are in danger, none yet polled show us losing to the GOP.

Keep an eye on EI for House and Senate polls updated daily.

SurveyUSA (likely primary voters, 4/13-15):

Kurt Schrader (D): 23%

Steve Marks (D): 20%

Other/Undecided: 57%

(MoE: ±4.1%)

And on the GOP side…

Mike Erickson (R): 44%

Kevin Mannix (R): 40%

Other/Undecided: 17%

(MoE: ±5%)

Not surprisingly, the undecided vote is much smaller among GOP voters.  Erickson was the 2006 nominee for this seat, while Mannix has run for a number of statewide offices in the past.  Former gubernatorial aide Steve Marks and state Sen. Kurt Schrader, on the other hand, have lower profiles.

It’s no secret that former Arizona state Senate President Ken Bennett (R), who is currently mulling a run for Congress, is the preferred choice of national party leaders.  But does Bennett have the stomach for a gig in Washington?  From the Arizona Capitol Times, via PolitickerAZ:

[Bennett] is awaiting word from Washington on ethics rules regarding his board positions and stock in 4 energy companies, one of which is developing fuel from algae.  ‘If I go back there and every time the question of energy comes up, Ken Bennett’s got to sit on his hands and keep his mouth closed, then what am I doing?’ he told our reporter this morning. ‘I might as well stay here and make fuel out of algae . . .   ‘That stock is my investment for my family,’ he said, adding that early indications are he would have to resign from the boards of those companies.

‘But [even] if I [could] keep those investments, I can’t vote on anything related to energy. It’s unfortunate. Congress was originally intended to be a part-time job where real people left the real world for a few months a year, went back and did what they did and went back and lived in the real world like everybody else. Now, we’re to the point where you really have to give up almost everything else to get back there and do it.’

Doesn’t exactly sound like a candidate with much fire in his belly to me.