Month: May 2008

Wow.  From a Rasmussen Reports poll (5/8, 500 likely voters, 4/10 in parens):

Kay Hagan (D): 48 (39)

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 47 (52)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

A very nice primary bump for Kay Hagan.  Looks like this race is shifting fast — and in the right direction.

(H/T: AndTun1)

The party needs unity and money, so I am trying to organize a fundraising effort – a moneybomb – for June 3rd.

June 3rd is, as most readers here will know, is the day that Montana and South Dakota will hold the final elections for the Democratic presidential nomination.  When the nomination campaign come to a close, many people will be focusing on who's winning and who's losing, but I thought that date would be a good day to focus instead on party unity.  No matter who we supported for the nomination it would be a perfect time to come together and show support for the party.

And because this race has been so long and so expensive, it has diverted a lot of money that would have otherwise found  it's way to the national party.  And right now, the DNC is badly trailing the RNC in cash.  The party will need money to support the eventual nominee and to continue it's fifty state strategy.

I've created a website to promote this effort:

  http://www.dncmoneybomb.com

I'm just getting this effort started, but I'm hoping this is something the netroots can get behind.  (I figure if the Ron Paul people can pull it off, surely dems can too!)

SSP is moving NC-Sen from “Safe Republican” to “Likely Republican.” Several factors contribute to this change:

1) Democrat Kay Hagan (who convincingly won her primary earlier this week) has done a good job raking in cash so far, raising $1.5 million since she got into the race, including $900K in the first quarter. She had to spend a lot of her warchest in her race against Jim Neal, but it looks like her fundraising will continue to be strong.

2) Democratic turnout rocked the house on Tuesday. In the most directly comparable races, the parallel gubernatorial primaries, the number of votes cast on the Dem side was almost three-and-a-half times greater than in the GOP contest. Of course, Dem turnout was likely to be greater given the presidential battle atop the ticket, but new Democratic voter registrations are far outstripping Republican registrations. There has also been a huge flux of new independent registrations, and early voting patterns show that indies overwhelmingly prefer Team Blue.

3) The Obama factor: Barack Obama almost certainly makes this state far more competitive than Hillary Clinton would have. We’re not saying Obama’s going to win NC, but it will be in play. And while Obama’s nomination has been inevitable for months, his grudging coronation by the tradmed finally allows him to focus on the general election. This is good news in the Tarheel State.

4) Finally, Liddy Dole’s polling is less than stellar. A Rasmussen poll a month ago put the race at 52-39, while a more recent Research 2000/DailyKos poll showed a tight 48-41 margin. Now that Hagan is past the primary, much like Obama, she can turn her attention to her Republican opponent.

SSP’s complete Senate race ratings are available here.

Safe D:

     VA (Open)

Races to Watch:  

     NE (Open)

     NJ (Lautenberg)

     OK (Inhofe)

     SC (Graham)

     TX (Cornyn)

Last Updated: November 3, 2008 at 2:00 AM

Previous Ratings

Safe D:

     NY-13 (Open)

Races to Watch:

Last Updated: November 2, 2008 at 11:30 PM

Previous Ratings

Remember, SSP will be live-blogging the MS-01 election results on Tuesday night. Polls close at 7pm 8pm Eastern time. If you haven’t yet signed up to do some virtual phonebanking, now is your chance!

Update (James): Russ Feingold’s PAC is itching to give away $5000 to one of 10 lucky House candidates.  Feel free to cast your informed vote to determine who gets a piece of Feingold’s booty.

The NRCC posted a big list of expenditures in Mississippi today, just days before this hotly-contested special election comes to a close on Tuesday:

• $151,000 on an ad buy
  

• $17,500 on media production
  

• $7500 on phonebanking
  

• $35,000 on direct mail
  

• $4400 on polling

The DCCC:

• $63,000 on media buys
  

• $13,500 on literature
  

• $14,500 on media production
  

• $7000 on field organizing

Total spent:

NRCC: $1,273,145 &nbsp|&nbsp DCCC: $1,742,121

Will you do your part to bring this race home on Tuesday?  The DCCC has set up a virtual phonebanking center for Travis Childers.  It’s fun and easy.  Let’s do this thing, people.

In the wake of what appears to be a career-ending scandal for Staten Island GOP Rep. Vito Fossella, the Swing State Project is updating its NY-13 race rating from “Likely Republican” to “Tossup“.

If Fossella resigns (as is rumored), the special election is sure to be a top-tier affair in this D+1 district for both Republicans and Democrats.  Arcane rules will allow party leaders to choose their most favored candidates — which would allow Democrats to make an upgrade from their current field (Brooklynites Stephen Harrison and Domenic Recchia).  Should Fossella decide to serve the remainder of his term and then retire from the House, new candidates are sure to get in on both sides.

If Fossella does the unthinkable and continues his re-election campaign, he’ll stagger onward with deep if not mortal wounds. Again, we would expect new challengers to emerge, both Republican and Democrat.

Culturally more conservative than the rest of New York City, NY-13 still favored Al Gore in 2000 by eight points.  The GOP has a deep bench on Staten Island, but if Democrats can recruit a Richmond resident for this race, the outcome will be anyone’s guess.

From WNBC New York:

Several top New York Republicans said that Congressman Vito Fossella’s resignation will come within the next 72 hours — if not late Friday then certainly by Monday.

There was political concern about how best to preserve the seat for the Republicans — questions about immediate resignation versus finishing out his term and retiring — but the calculation is there’s nothing to be gained from Fossella sticking around. While Staten Island Republicans believe Fossella could at least serve out his term (the rest of the year) national Republicans want him gone. Now.

[…] Smart strategists say watch for something later this afternoon (rule: dump bad news on Friday afternoons when news consumption is low and so it will end up in the lesser-read Saturday newspapers) but a New York Republican keeping a close eye on all this says Fossella’s decision may not come until Monday.

Stay tuned.

As we explained earlier:

If Fossella should resign before July 1st, Gov. Paterson has the option of calling a special election, or he could leave the seat vacant until the next Congress.  But if Fossella resigns, and if Paterson calls a special election here, there would be no primary.  In what would amount to one of the biggest backroom deals in recent political memory in NYC, party leaders would designate the nominees.

This could allow Dems to upgrade their candidate from the current field (Brooklyn attorney Stephen Harrison and Coney Island city councilman Domenic Recchia, who has yet to officially launch his campaign).  As the man says: Stay tuned.

(H/T: RandySF)

It’s over for Vito Fossella and the NY-13 is about to be open to a special election, according to WNBC.

Several top New York Republicans said that Congressman Vito Fossella’s resignation will come within the next 72 hours — if not late Friday then certainly by Monday.

There was political concern about how best to preserve the seat for the Republicans — questions about immediate resignation versus finishing out his term and retiring — but the calculation is there’s nothing to be gained from Fossella sticking around. While Staten Island Republicans believe Fossella could at least serve out his term (the rest of the year) national Republicans want him gone. Now.

The Democratic lead in the House has been growing since the dramatic 2006 election results and 2008 looks increasingly difficult for the GOP. Twenty -seven incumbent Republican House members are retiring this year including two in New York State and two in New Jersey. By historical standards that is a huge number and it’s significant because open seats are relatively rare and present the best opportunity for either party to flip seats. Republican seats in the Northeast are at the most risk since the region has turned pretty reliably Democratic in this decade.

Battlestations, everyone. We better recruit and get in gear to make make New york City 100% blue.

[UPDATE]

This may be an indicator

Embattled Rep. Vito Fossella (R-N.Y.) will not have to appear in an Alexandria, Va., court on Monday to answer charges stemming from his drunken driving arrest last week because his attorney has already waived his right for a preliminary hearing and scheduled a trial date, a court official said Friday.

Fossella’s trial has been set for June 26.

Events are moving swiftly but I’ll do my best to keep up.