Month: May 2008

Our friend Mitch writes in the comments:

As many of y’all know, one of the sticking points for the good folks of the 1st district is that Greg Davis, in addition to his other shortcomings, is basically the mayor of a Memphis suburb with much more connection to that city than to the rest of Northeast Mississippi.

And Mississippians want to be represented by a, you know, a Mississippian, not an all-but-Memphian.

That’s why Darth Cheney is getting ready to stump for “South Memphis” Mayor Greg Davis:

GALLOW: Monday you are going to be here — on Monday — in the state of Mississippi, and Greg Davis will be there, and you’ll be in Senatobia, Hernando, and that area?

THE VICE PRESIDENT: Yes, I think we are going to be. I’m not sure exactly. It’s going to be someplace in the First District. I’m not sure exactly what part of it. South Memphis or —

GALLOW: Don’t worry about it.

We can see why Cheney would be confused. Southaven, just 14 miles away from downtown, sure looks like South Memphis to us. Maybe Greg Davis would be better off running for Congress in Tennessee.

On the web:

Virtual Phonebanking for Travis Childers

The Hill reports that Darth Cheney himself is about to land in Mississippi to scare some votes for slimeball GOP candidate Greg Davis:

Cheney appeared on “The Paul Gallow Show” to support Southaven Mayor Greg Davis (R).

Davis faces Prentiss County Chancery Clerk Travis Childers (D) on May 13 in a runoff election in the state’s 1st district, a seat formerly held by Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.).

“This seat is a very important one,” Cheney said. “It’s been in conservative hands for a long time, and we’d hate to see the liberals gain control.”

The vice president said holding the seat is crucial because it could tip the scales in close votes on Capitol Hill.

Cheney will be on the ground in Mississippi on Monday for a fundraiser and a GOTV rally with Davis.

It’s time to step up to the battle, folks.  We can’t let the forces of darkness cling on to this one.  To that end, the DCCC has set up a virtual phonebanking center for Travis Childers.  Getting started is as easy as cherry pie.  You’ve donated, you’ve followed the news, you’ve tracked the expenditures, and if your name is Trent Thompson, you’ve canvassed on the ground.  Now’s your chance to help hustle out the vote for Travis Childers.

A win here would utterly crush the spirit of the House GOP caucus and signify and loud and clear appetite for change in Washington.  Let’s do this thing!

Also, be sure to check back with SSP on election day on Tuesday.  We’ll be posting updates and liveblogging the election that evening.

Special election: 5/13.

Well, it looks like Vito Fossella isn’t going to be receiving the David Vitter treatment anytime soon.

From the Staten Island Advance:

Vito Fossella’s well-deserved shame at being arrested for driving while intoxicated last week evolved rapidly in the interim into abject disgrace.

Because of that moral descent, and the distractions and ugly controversy all of it brings, he should resign from his seat in the House of Representatives.

And he should do so immediately.

Far too much damage has been done to his personal reputation and credibility at this point for him to recover and be an effective public servant.

And there is too much potential for pointless and endlessly embarrassing digressions into this scandal if he chooses to stay in public life.

The New York Post:

That Fossella betrayed his wife and family is between him and them. But his betrayal of his constituents was only marginally less egregious.

Vito Fossella needs to just go away.

Now.

The New York Daily News:

The facts are the facts. Fossella has admitted he was plastered. According to prosecutors, the law calls for a mandatory five days behind bars. It’s time for Fossella to be fully accountable.

Get thee to jail, congressman.

(Big hat-tip to Phillip)

SurveyUSA (5/5-7, likely and actual voters, 4/13-15 in parens):

Kurt Schrader (D): 37 (23)

Steve Marks (D): 14 (20)

Other/Undecided: 49 (57)

(MoE: ±4%)

And on the GOP side:

Mike Erickson (R): 49 (44)

Kevin Mannix (R): 41 (40)

Other/Undecided: 10 (17)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Primary: 5/20.

Repubican House “leadership” have told Vito Fossella that he has until Monday to decide what he wants to do with his future, and according to the New York Daily News running for re-election is not among his options.

GOP leaders gave him until Monday to decide if he was going to step down immediately or retire at the end of his term. “Mr. Fossella is going to have some decisions to make over the weekend,” said House Minority Leader John Boehner of Ohio.

Republican leaders have “lost all faith” in him and are casting around for a successor for the seat the GOP has held for three decades. Leading candidates include state Sen. Andrew Lanza and Staten Island District Attorney Dan Donovan.

Political observers said his once-promising political career is over. “He’s politically dead. The only thing that hasn’t happened is the autopsy report hasn’t been written,” said political science Prof. Doug Muzzio of Baruch College.

I have said this before and I will say it again. His “second family” issues are not an issue for me. We all do things that complicate our lives. And to Fossella’s credit, it appears that he is making every effort to be in the child’s life. However, the drinking, driving AND abusive behavior to police is a different matter. Is it all bad enough to lose a careers over? I don’t know. He’s not the first member to drive while impaired. But Republicans, having suffered one scandal after another, decided they cannot afford to have him hang around. It’s over for Vito Fossella

IL-14 was bad.  LA-06 was worse.  But if you’re an ass-scratching member of the Boehner caucus, the very real scenario of receiving a back-breaking loss in Mississippi next week is too terrifying to even begin imagining.

That’s why the GOP is calling in the cavalry to stop Democrat Travis Childers:

Rep. Lynn Westmoreland (R-Ga.) presented a multi-faceted plan to retain the Mississippi seat to the House Republican Young Guns group on Tuesday. The plan is designed to get staff on the ground and checks to Davis.

“We need boots on the ground. This is going to be about voter turnout,” Westmoreland said. “So it’s a matter of having enough people to go door to door, to go to Wal-Mart and Home Depot to get [Davis’s] message out.”

Westmoreland and several other members have dispatched staff to Mississippi to do just that. Others, like Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), have supported Davis financially.

“One thing that the Young Guns do is engage in races,” said McCarthy.

Young Guns?  More like City Slickers II.

Or maybe Blazing Saddles.

No, wait — I’ve got it: Two Mules For Sister Sara.

The DCCC’s independent expenditures for the evening in Mississippi:

• $1450 on phonebanking
  

• $16,700 on direct mail
  

• $3000 on media production
  

• $6000 on field organizing for Travis Childers

The NRCC:

• $700 on phonebanking
  

• $4400 on polling

This has got to be the 9th or 10th round of polling that the NRCC has commissioned here.  (Update: I checked — it’s actually the 8th round.)  Interesting that they haven’t released the toplines from any of them.

Total spent:

NRCC: $1,057,384 &nbsp|&nbsp DCCC: $1,645,893

Some notable changes. Most prominant right now is that Cook has changed NY-13 from Leans Republican to Tossup. Read below the fold.

House Editor David Wasserman foresees a photo finish in the MS-01 special election scheduled for Tuesday:  If it is true that “time heals all wounds,” Republicans would not be panicking over next week’s north Mississippi special election. Yet, two weeks after Greg Davis (R) finished in second behind Travis Childers (D) in the initial round of balloting, private polls suggest that the needle has not moved and that the party’s chances of holding the seat in the runoff are 50/50 at best.  Click here to read more.

· House Ratings Changes:

AK-AL   Young     Lean Republican to Toss Up

CA-11   McNerney  Lean Democratic to Toss Up

CT-02   Courtney  Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic

FL-21   L. Diaz-Balart  Solid Republican to Likely Republican

FL-24   Feeney   Likely Republican to Lean Republican

KS-02  Boyda     Lean Democratic to Toss Up

KY-03  Yarmuth   Likely Democratic to Lean Democratic

IN-02  Donnelly  Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic

IN-07  Carson    Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic

MI-07  Walberg   Lean Republican to Toss Up

MI-09  Knollenberg  Likely Republican to Lean Republican

MO-06  Graves  Likely Republican to Lean Republican

NY-13  Fossella Likely Republican to Toss Up

NC-11  Shuler  Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic

OH-02  Schmidt  Lean Republican to Likely Republican

OH-14  LaTourette  Likely Republican to Solid Republican

Rasmussen (5/6, likely voters, 3/24 in parens):

Jay Nixon (D): 51 (46)

Sarah Steelman (R): 35 (39)

Jay Nixon (D): 51 (48)

Kenny Hulshof (R): 35 (37)

(MoE: ±4%)

Damn, Nixon looks formidable.  Mark Missouri down as the Democrats’ best gubernatorial pick-up opportunity in the nation this year.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (5/5-7, likely voters, 9/24-26/07 in parens):

Rick Noriega (D): 44 (35)

John Cornyn (R-inc): 48 (51)

(MoE: ±4%)

This confirms another recent poll by Rasmussen, which showed Cornyn leading Noriega by a 47-43 margin.

If these polls don’t help Noriega start raising some real money, I don’t know what will.