So I realized that so far, the Senate races I’ve been following have all been in low-population states with relatively cheap media markets: Alaska, Idaho, Nebraska, Oklahoma.
Now, I have to figure out how to “scale up” my interpretations of information–fundraising, cash-on-hand, poll numbers, poll undecideds, (dis)approval/familiarity ratings…
Like, for example, a 10-point deficit in poll numbers is one thing in Nebraska, but is it the same thing in Texas? If not, how does it depend on money and candidate familiarity? Obviously, I’m thinking about the fact there’s a ton more people in Texas, and the media markets probably cost more (I know that Alaska and Idaho have cheap media markets, though I’m not sure about Nebraska or Oklahoma).
Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.) chastised his colleagues Tuesday for not contributing to the GOP candidate in an increasingly crucial Mississippi special election, saying those who have not helped “ought to be ashamed of themselves,” Republican sources said.
The harsh admonition from the head of the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) was the latest rallying cry from GOP campaigners, who have repeatedly cited a lack of enthusiasm and giving from members. House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) told his colleagues earlier this year that they needed to get off their “dead asses” and raise money for the NRCC. […]
In another conservative district in Mississippi, the vast majority of members have not given to Southaven Mayor Greg Davis (R), even after he nearly lost to Democrat Travis Childers late last month.
This whole Attorney General Marc Dann situation gets harder and harder to stomach with each passing day. I’m glad this statement hit my desk before I read it somewhere else.
State Senator John Boccieri: Attorney General Marc Dann should resign Immediately
Today State Senator John Boccieri, Democratic candidate in Ohio’s 16th Congressional District, called for Attorney General Marc Dann to resign from office:
“I am outraged that the Attorney General of the state of Ohio has neglected the duty and honor of public service,” Senator Boccieri said. “The cronyism and lack of attentiveness to protocol and detail in Attorney General Dann’s hiring practices has led us to this tragic moment in Ohio’s history. I feel for his wife Alyssa and his children, who must endure the embarrassment he has caused to them, and the people of the state of Ohio.
“We support the ongoing investigation to determine whether any criminal lines have been crossed. However, after combing through the sordid details of the investigation transcripts, it is clear that ethical and moral lines have been disregarded. For this reason, I call upon Marc Dann to resign immediately.”
Ohio has been subjected to statement after statement from Dann defending his staff and himself. As a “reasonable person”, and that will matter. I have stand with Senator John Boccieri on this whole case…It is what it is! One doesn’t comb transcripts and walk away with some false sense of reality. Personally, I think Ohio’s 16th Congressional District Democratic Candidate State Senator Major John Boccieri has done the smart thing…he held back and read the facts before coming to a conclusion and he has distanced himself from the epicenter of the after-shocks yet to come.
Alright, a mistake’s a mistake. Nothing changed here since the last time we posted these ratings, but the truth of it is: “Leans Democratic” is getting a bit too ahead of ourselves here. Sure, Young may be lagging behind his Democratic challengers in every public poll since the fall, but this is an awfully red state that has broken Democratic hearts before. Moreover, it’s still unclear if Young will make his way back onto the November ballot. A tossup this shall remain, for now.
LA-06 (Cazayoux): Tossup to Leans Democratic
Don Cazayoux’s newfound incumbency advantage, however small, and the unclear nature of the GOP field in this district gives him the advantage for the time being. However, if the GOP nominates a strong candidate, or if Democratic state Rep. Michael Jackson pursues his independent candidacy, this rating will likely have to be revisited.
MS-01 (Open): Likely Republican to Tossup
An undeniable tossup. Democrat Travis Childers stunned the Beltway crowd by posting a 49%-46% lead in the special primary here, and the GOP has reacted with ferocious desperation.
NJ-05 (Garrett): Safe Republican to Likely Republican
Rabbi Dennis Shulman has shown some strong early signs of viability here. At the end of March, he was sitting on $246K cash-on-hand to Garrett’s lackluster $458K. Between Shulman’s compelling profile and Garrett’s ultra-conservative record, this race definitely deserves to be added to the big board.
OH-14 (LaTourette): Likely Republican to Safe Republican/Races to Watch
LaTourette, who occupies a competitive, R+2.2 distirct, may look like a compelling target on paper, but Democrat Bill O’Neill (who, in 2006, ran for state Supreme Court on a “no money” campaign and platform) has been a weak fundraiser so far. With O’Neill holding less than $50K on-hand, we have to take LaTourette off the board for now.
PA-18 (Murphy): Likely Republican to Safe Republican/Races to Watch
Democrats made noises early on in the cycle about giving Murphy a stiff challenge in this R+2.2 district. But the none of the candidates who ran for the Democratic nomination caught much fire here, and the presumed front runner, consultant Beth Hafer, lost her primary to businessman Steve O’Donnell. O’Donnell has given his campaign a little bit of money, but he hasn’t shown any fundraising prowess so far. This one moves off the big board until he shows us more.
TX-22 (Lampson): Leans Democratic to Tossup
Republicans dodged a major bullet here by not nominating the ridiculous Shelley Sekula-Gibbs. Pete Olson may not be anything remarkable, but he doesn’t need to be in a district this red (R+14.5).
That’s a tough climb for any challenger, even one starting out with 14% name recognition like Segall.
On the generic ballot, Republicans have a three point lead on Democrats: 41% to 38%. On the informed ballot between Rogers and Segall, the incumbent’s lead shrinks to 48% to 41% after biographical information is given about both candidates.
But most interesting to me is this statistic — by a margin of 63% to 27%, voters want withdrawal from Iraq by the end of 2008. Now that’s a potent issue for Segall to put to his advantage if he runs a smart campaign.
The question of the Senate race in Kentucky is coming down to the question not of, do we want to replace Mitch McConnell, but who will be best to replace Mitch McConnell in the fall. I am one Democrat that would never entertain the thought of not only voting for McConnell but indeed NOT VOTING AGAIMST HIM. You can bet this is one Democrat that will be voting for our nominee.
That being said this is one Democrat that that wants to vote for what he fights for. In this election year I just see no reason why Democrats can’t stand up and fight as Democrats without shame. It works when it is tried.
Now, I admit at the beginning of this process, I didn’t know who Greg Fischer was. I originally supported Greg Stumbo, former A.G. of Kentucky to run against McConnell. He made a trip to talk to the DSCC and never came back. Well, not as a candidate for Senate at least.
Then I went to automatic second choice Andrew Horne. His fate is more widely publicized and known than Greg Stumbo’s, but were basically the same. I went through a month when I didn’t know who I would vote for in that race, and I will admit lost interest in it to a certain degree. I like Kenneth Stepp a lot, but realized the problems he would have. He is a great Democrat though. I talked to the Cassaro campaign, and will admit those are some class folks who did respond over there. I just didn’t feel their views matched up with mine.
I began to think that I would have to vote for Bruce Lunsford, holding my nose and hoping that he voted my fight at least 50% of the time if he won. McConnell is after-all 0%. At least it would be an improvement.
But then in support of Heather Ryan I went to an event in Benton to meet with the DEC there. Greg Fischer showed up at the same meeting. After it was over he came up and wished Heather luck in her fall election. He said how he really hoped he would be on that ticket to. He asked my name, and for my support and I flat out told him there were a few things I was concerned about. He took the time to talk to me about his views on healthcare as I told him that I was recently stricken with Type 1 Diabetes.
Greg Fischer won my vote that day. Although he never said anything about the Presidential race, his views and statements seemed to have an Edwards Populist ring to them. From healthcare, to Fair Trade, to a sensible exit from Iraq, to fighting Corporate Greed, fighting for workers, all down the line, he shared my views, and wanted to fight for them. He would be an excellent Senator for a new Democratic President.
Now, I hate to trash Democrats, but I am never going to be anyone’s robot. (Not insinuating anyone is.) I can speak out on even my party and it’s candidates if I feel they are wrong. That is my right and I will do so. There are many things that can be used against Bruce Lunsford, but this one is foremost to me:
Do I even have to comment on that? Add to that his past contributions to Republicans up to and INCLUDING Mitch McConnell!!!, leads me to believe that he will not fight for me, and will turn coat more times than not. I mean, the whole time I was fighting uphill fights for Democratic candidates in several races Bruce Lunsford fought against me. I don’t dislike the man personally, but that is just the truth of reality.
Reality is I support Greg Fischer in the Democratic Primary for U.S. Senate. His truth is my truth, as summed up here:
Ever since Brian Bilbray beat Democrat Francine Busby in that lousy summer ’06 special election, most Democrats have thrown up their hands when it comes to winning California’s 50th Congressional District. But a new poll by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (4/24-27, likely voters) for Democratic challenger Nick Leibham suggests that the ground may be shifting in the right direction in this R+4.6 district. First, the head-to-head:
Nick Leibham (D): 34
Brian Bilbray (R-inc): 52
(MoE: ±4.9%)
That’s about where you’d expect this race to be at this point. But looking deeper into the numbers, Democrats have a 43%-39% generic congressional ballot preference advantage here, and a 47%-40% generic presidential advantage. And after a positive bio is read of both Leibham and Bilbray, the gap closes to 49% Bilbray, 46% Leibham.
Bilbray’s re-elects aren’t stellar either, with only 42% of voters saying that they will vote to re-elect him, while 39% say that they’ll cast their ballots for someone else.
This is not to say that this race is likely to end up on the competitive board, but it’s definitely worth keeping an eye on — especially since Leibham’s war chest is a respectable 53% of Bilbray’s cash-on-hand.