Here’s the damage:
| Cmtee | Receipts | Spent | CoH |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCCC | $5.02M | $4.06M | $45.27M |
| NRCC | $4.25M | $4.69M | $6.73M |
That April fundraising gap is actually not too shabby for Republicans, but one has to wonder if the GOP’s backbreaking loss in Mississippi last week will deflate their fundraising appeal in the months to come.
Bennett, Petts & Normington for Betsy Markey (5/13-15, likely voters):
Betsy Markey (D): 43
Marilyn Musgrave (R-inc): 36
(MoE: ±4.9%)
The poll pegs Musgrave’s job approval rating at 40%, while 51% of voters disapprove of her performance in Congress.
It’s an internal poll, so skepticism is expected. But the Musgrave campaign’s response caught my eye:
Musgrave supporters, however, said it’s much too early to count her out of the race. Guy Short, Musgrave’s chief of staff, said a poll done by the Musgrave camp in March showed her leading 47 percent to 42 percent.
Even if Musgrave’s internal poll is a more accurate snapshot of this race, a GOP incumbent leading an unknown Democrat by a mere 47-42 margin in an R+8.5 district is hardly a stellar performance. I’ll take either set of numbers here.
SSP currently rates this race as Leans Republican.
(H/T: ColoradoPols)
SurveyUSA (5/17-19, likely voters):
Beverly Perdue (D): 52
Pat McCrory (R): 45
(MoE: ±3.7%)
I’m not sure about the Republican side, but Perdue just came out of a contentious Democratic primary that saw a fair share of negative advertising, so this is a pretty decent place to start the race at.
It’s not even close. SurveyUSA (5/16-18, likely voters):
Jay Nixon (D): 57
Kenny Hulshof (R): 33Jay Nixon (D): 58
Sarah Steelman (R): 33
(MoE: ±2.5%)
SUSA also polls the GOP primary:
Kenny Hulshof: 29
Sarah Steelman: 25
Scott Long: 10
Jen Sievers: 4
Undecided: 32
(MoE: ±5%)
Primary: August 5th
SurveyUSA (5/16-18, likely voters):
Kay Barnes (D): 39
Sam Graves (R-inc): 49
Other: 8
Undecided: 5
(MoE: ±4.3%)
Barnes holds Graves under 50%, but she still faces an uphill climb to close the gap. Anyway you cut it, this one will be a marquee race this fall.
SSP currently rates this race as Leans Republican.
Call it the “Deathwatch Watch” – the Hill writes about us:
Swing State Project, a blog focused on congressional races from the 2004 swing states, started the “Tom Cole Deathwatch” in March, after Democrat Bill Foster won former House Speaker Dennis Hastert’s (R-Ill.) old seat in a special election. The blog updated the “deathwatch” last week, asking readers to guess how long it would be before Cole was ousted.
The optimism among liberal blogs over this year’s congressional races is in stark contrast to the mood of conservatives.
“Unless congressional Republicans plan on making a dramatic course correction on Iraq withdrawal, SCHIP [the State Children’s Health Insurance Program], healthcare reform and fair trade, they’re in for a world of hurt in November,” said James Lambert, one of Swing State Project’s editors.
The premise for the article, though, is that rightwing bloggers are furious with Cole and want to see him get booted. Given how utterly impotent the conserative blogosphere is, this probably means that Cole is actually more likely to stay on.
In fact, a separate Hill piece about the Republicans who (well, sorta) matter – ie, the House Republican caucus – suggests that Cole (and John Boehner) are safe. That’s why I love this deathwatch – we win whether Cole stays or goes.
Results will begin to be reported from Oregon in a few minutes. We’ll use this thread to track the returns from OR-Sen and OR-05.
11:20PM ET: Merkley is up by 4 points so far. He’s losing Portland, but has a big lead in Lane County (Eugene). Interesting.
11:57PM ET (David): Merkley’s lead has been holding steady at 4% much of the night. About 61% of the vote has been counted so far.
12:17AM ET (David): My back-of-the-envelope says that it’s unlikely that Novick could squeeze more than another 4-5K out of Multnomah County (margin-wise). Outside of Multnomah, he’s got almost nothing. I’m not sure I can see how he can overtake Merkley’s lead.
12:40AM ET (James): Mike “I Don’t Know What Cocaine Looks Like” Erickson won his primary, amazingly enough.
1:03AM ET (David): Blue Oregon says that Novick has called Merkley to concede.
1:06AM ET (James): The Oregonian has just called this race for Jeff Merkley!
SurveyUSA (5/17-19, likely voters):
Kay Hagan (D): 46
Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 50
Undecided: 4
(MoE: ±3.7%)
Very strong numbers for Hagan, indeed. But could this contest actually be even closer than SUSA’s numbers show? Consider the following: SUSA’s likely voter turnout model puts the African-American vote at 20% of the total sample. However, CNN’s 2004 exit polling had the black vote at 26%. With Obama at the top of the ticket, you’ve gotta believe that the energized black turnout will push that share far closer to 26% (and maybe even more) than to 20%.
Polls close in Oregon at 8pm Pacific/11pm Eastern. We’ll put up a results thread closer to that hour.
In the meantime, feel free to post your predictions for the Democratic Senate primary and the Republican primary for OR-05.
Polls are closed in Kentucky and there are exactly two contests worth watching in the Bluegrass state: the Democratic primaries for the Senate and the 2nd Congressional District. I’m feeling pretty ill today, so no liveblogging for me.