Month: May 2008

Hey there folks, TJ from Loaded Orygun here–Oregon’s progressive community and a member of the 50-State Blog Network.

All eyes are obviously turned towards Oregon later tonight, but without any results until at least 11pm eastern–and no exits to pore over–some folks might get a little edgy from all the “Obama can’t hack the working class” nonsense on cable and need a distraction to get ready for the GOOD news.

The first thing to check out is the nuts and bolts election info provided by one of our members, skywaker9. Ballot dropoffs, other websites to visit, where to get results, how vote by mail works here–lots of great stuff.

We’ve been mostly covering the Senate race between Steve Novick and Jeff Merkley, and I’m sure what most folks would like to know is, who’s gonna win? And the answer is…no one knows for sure. But there have been four polls in the last 8 days on the race, and taken together they definitely give us some clues.

Want something a little peppier, visual and shorter to read through? What’s easier than videos? Check out the candidates responding to the most recent SUSA, Novick’s ad on Hardball last night, and what some pundits have called “the best 90 seconds of the primary.”  

Finally, a look at some of the many non-Oregon publications that have featured Novick or addressed the Senate race. Prominent among recent articles is the AP piece essentially pitting Novick against Chuck Schumer, but there’s also a top-notch bio piece by the Oregonian if you need to find out more about the man, a great interview in slashdot–plus links to all of the 12 state newspapers that endorsed Novick.

Enjoy your virtual visit to Oregon, and I hope your candidate wins!

Twelve states still have open filing (or will have open filing).  Then there’s Virginia with its filing date (passed) and the party congressional district conventions.  This does not include states like Massachussetts and hawaii with an entirely Democratic delegation.  In the remaining states, New York has the most Republican members of congress (6) but Oklahoma has the most who have not announced retirement (4).  In total, these states have 36 GOP representatives with eight retirements.

Alaska has a June 2 filing deadline.  The case for a Don Young retirement is simple.  It will allow him to spend all his remaining cash on hand on his legal defence.  The seat already has an announced Republican who has filed, Sean Parnell.  Young still has a huge cash advantage over his opponents and would, at the least, stand a good chance at defeating Parnell.  We’ll know by June 2.

My second ranked retirement choice would be a surprise but given the flak he’s taken, it seems like an interesting personal choice.  Tom Cole has a safe seat in Oklahoma (June 4 deadline) but has receiveds merciless criticism, particularly from Boehner.  Given that the last NRCC head ts retiring this year, this job takes a lot out of its current place holder and gives little in return (Tom Davis was, after all, shoved out of the US Senate race in VA).  Maybe he’ll decide to chuck it, do his best, and say sayonara.

None of the other Oklahoma incumbents (Sullivan, Lucas, and Fallin) seem even remotely likely to leave.  Others have been on rumor lists in the past so they migh seem like possible retirement choices.

Colorado is the next state out of the chute and Marilyn Musgrave was frequently mentioned as being pressed to drop out.  There is no talk of that, Doug La,born is a first-term true believer and Tancredo is the one leaving.  No change.

Wyoming is next and Barbara Cubin has already announced she’s departing.

No, next on my list is someone who is independently wealthy, 65 years old, but who is unopposed.  That would be Jim Sensenbrenner in Wisconsin.  If Sensenbrenner.  Sensenbrenner would have the added benefit of being able to basically name his successor.  (other Wisconsin Republicans are Tom Petri and Ryan).

Fourth and fifth on my list are two Washington Republicans, Cathy McMorris Rogers and Doc Hastings.  McMorris Rogers missed a lot of time while giving birth.  She may prefer spending more time in a more stable environment than being a member of the House representing a district coveriong Spokane.  Hastings is a member of the Republican class of 1994.  He lost a lot of clout when the Democrats took power and was frequently mentioned early on as a possible retiree.  Dave Reichert spent seemingly 20 years hunting the Green River Killer.  I don’t see him giving up on a House seat he holds (if barely) this soon in his career.  Lose, yes.  Retire, no.

6 and 7. John McHugh won easily in 2006 and faces an opponent, in Mike Oot, with a slim $15,415 in the bank. OTOH, McHugh was mentioned on this site IIRC as possibly stepping down and running for a State Senate set recently taken by Darrell Aubertine.  McHugh is not exactly rolling in cash with a paltry $261,698.It’s a toss up district (R+0.2)in a Democratic state where the GOP seems to be doing its best to disappear.  Randy Kuhl has the safest Republican district in the state (R+5, NY-29).  Kuhl has a volcanic temper, though, and trails Eric Massa in cash on hand by $365 K (Kuhl) to $565 K (Massa).  My guess is that Kuhl is far more likely to lose this seat than give it up.  Still, since another candidate might well do better, retirement is possible.  (Peter King is safe in the other activer NY seat as he has money ($802 K) and lacks a challenger.

8. Mike Castle.  Castle has plenty of money but he earlier suffered a stroke (which he and his staff covered up).  Health problems are the only thing that could drag Mike from defending this D+7 seat.

9. Marilyn Musgrave.  Musgrave was pushed to retire early as she has badly underperformed her district.  Instead, the feisty conservative has tried to position herself as more bi-partisan.  I think it’s a crock but it does show she’s running again.  Doug Lamborn has a primary opponent but he’s already running again.  (The Colorado system shows some districts earlier than others based on the district assembly date for the party.)  Tom Tancredo has long since announced his retirement.

10.  John Shadegg.  Shadegg already retired once and has a pile of cash.  He’s running.  Bur Jeff Flake is running for a leadershio position and Trent Franks has shown no inclination to join the retirees.  Rick Renzi is awaiting his defence and retirement.

Nothing happening:  KS (Moran and Tiarrht); LA (the newly elected Scalise, Alexander, and Boustany); MN (Kline and Bachmann).

Don Young may realistically retire.  Anybody else seems highly unlikely.

I just wanted to pass along some news I got in my email box just now. Betsy Markey has been elected ot receive the $3,000 Progressive Patriot contribution.

Dear Supporter,

Thank you!

Last week we asked for your help to win the Progressive Patriot fund web nomination.  We had an incredible response from our entire list and received enough votes to place a very close third place.   Due to the tremendous turnout for Betsy, Sen. Feingold is sending a $3,000 check today to support our campaign!

As this campaign continues to build momentum I truly appreciate that this is bigger than any one person.  Thank you again!

Betsy Markey

She’s nothing if not organized.

Hamilton Campaigns (5/15-18, likely voters):

Ronnie Musgrove (D): 48

Roger Wicker (R-inc*): 40

(MoE: ±4%)

Musgrove’s favorables are at 57-30, while the lesser-known Wicker is sitting at 42-14.  In the 1st Congressional District, Wicker’s homebase (and one picked up by Democrat Travis Childers last week), Wicker only leads by 48-43.  Even the presidential race is reasonably close:

Like the 1st District race, party labels will not appear on the ballot beside Wicker and Musgrove’s name, because the November race is technically a special election to fill Republican Trent Lott’s seat. That factor could help Musgrove win voters who are also planning to vote for Republican Sen. John McCain, who is winning the state 50%-41%, according to the poll. President Bush won Mississippi 59%-39% in 2004.

From The Hill:

Rep. Vito Fossella (R-N.Y.) is expected to announce this week that he will not seek reelection, according to two sources.

The announcement could come as early as Tuesday but is expected before Congress adjourns for its Memorial Day recess at the end of this week.

It is unclear if Fossella will finish out his term or opt to resign before the end of the 110th Congress. One source said he will complete his sixth term.

As nrafter530 writes in the diaries, expect a full-court press to ensue for a Staten Island-based pol like state Sen. Diane Savino, Assemblyman Mike Cusick, or NYC Councilman Mike McMahon to run for the Democrats in this D+0.8 district.

SSP currently rates this race as a “Tossup“.

UPDATE (David): The AP is saying the same thing.

UPDATE II (James): It’s official — Fossella will retire at the end of his term.  The Politico has Fossella’s statement.

UPDATE III: Elizabeth Benjamin picks up buzz that Councilman Domenic Recchia (D-Coney Island) will drop out of the race:

On the Democratic side, a source confirms the rumor that Councilman Domenic Recchia is NOT expected to follow through with his nascent bid for Fossella’s seat, despite the fact that he is sitting on some $325,000.

Recchia is apparently friendly with Savino and McMahon, so this could be a sign that one of these candidates is planning a bid.

The news just broke here in New York City on Fox 5. Vito Fossella, the Republican from the 13th district of New York who was arrested for drunk driving two weeks ago and was discovered to have a love child with a mistress will NOT run for reelection in November, but he will serve out his term.  

That opens up another seat ripe for the taking. The district, based in Staten Island and includes parts of Southwestern Brooklyn, has a PVI of D+1. Gore won here in 2000, but Bush won in 2004. This is the third open Republican seat in New York State. Half of the state’s Republicans are retiring.

Possible Republican candidates may include State Senator Andrew Lanza, NYC Councilman James Oddo, Staten Island DA Dan Donovan.

Democratic candidates Steve Harrison and Dominic Recchia are in the race, but an open seat may entice a couple of strong Staten Island Democrats; State Senator Diane Savino, State Assemblyman Mike Cusick, NYC Councilman Michael McMahon.  

From the Lafayette Independent Weekly:

The national Democratic Party is putting the full court press on state Sen. Don Cravins Jr. to challenge incumbent Republican Charles Boustany in the 7th Congressional District. Cravins, who recently expressed an interest in possibly switching parties to run against Boustany as an independent, says the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has been in close contact with him and offered substantial support were he to run as a Democrat. Cravins, along with two other Democratic African American state legislators, Lydia Jackson of Shreveport and Michael Jackson of Baton Rouge, recently stated they were considering Congressional runs as independents, partly because of the Democratic Party’s poor track record of supporting black candidates in major state elections and majority white districts. Cravins saw his father receive little party backing for his Congressional run in 2004.

“I’d like to run as a Democrat,” Cravins says. “But right now, I’m more concerned over the decision of whether I’m going to run or not. [The Democratic Party] has been talking to me about things I really wanted to hear the party talk to me about. I’m going to be traveling to D.C. in the next two weeks and I’ll make up my mind very shortly.” Cravins says he has been contacted directly both DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen and House Majority Whip James Clyburn. While in D.C., Cravins also plans to meet with former Louisiana Senator and 7th District Congressman John Breaux, who also has reached out to him.

LA-07 is an R+7.4 district that’s been held by Boustany since 2004, when a racial split depressed Democratic turnout in the runoff and allowed the seat formerly held by Democrat Chris John to fall into Republican hands.

Will this one go down to the wire?

SurveyUSA (5/16-18, likely and actual voters, 5/9-11 in parens):

Jeff Merkley (D): 34 (31)

Steve Novick (D): 37 (27)

Candy Neville (D): 7 (11)

Other/Undecided: 23 (30)

(MoE: ±4%)

Novick leads Merkley among those who have already voted by 6 points.  The two candidates are tied at 32 apiece among voters who have yet to return their ballots.

Public Policy Polling also released a poll on this race today (5/17-18, likely voters, no trendlines):

Jeff Merkley: 33

Steve Novick: 38

Candy Neville: 6

Other: 3

Undecided: 19

(MoE: ±2.7%)