Month: May 2008

SurveyUSA (5/16-18, likely voters and actual voters, 5/5-7 in parens):

Kevin Mannix (R): 46 (41)

Mike Erickson (R): 42 (49)

(MoE: ±4.7%)

As you probably know, this race was recently shaken up in a big way when Mannix released serious allegations about Erickson’s hard-partying past.  Among voters who have already returned their ballots in Oregon’s mail-in system, Erickson leads by 2 points.  But in SUSA’s likely voter screen, the 38% of voters who have not yet returned their ballots favor Mannix by a 14-point margin.

On the Democratic side, things are looking good for state Sen. Kurt Schrader:

Kurt Schrader (D): 43 (37)

Steve Marks (D): 19 (14)

Other/Undecided: 38 (49)

(MoE: ±3.6%)

(From the diaries – promoted by DavidNYC)

In several diaries or stories lately there have been comments where people have wondered whether Congressperson X is the only person of Y race to represent a district that is majority-Z. I went through the list and found every one I can think of, so hopefully this diary can be the ultimate argument-settler. Please feel free to chime in in the comments if you think someone is missing.

I’m using 2005 census estimates. Interestingly, a number of districts have crossed a threshold since the 2000 census: a number of districts, for instance, have crossed from a white plurality to a Hispanic plurality in those years (CA-17, CA-21, CA-23, CA-27), while CA-13 crossed from white plurality to an Asian plurality. TX-09, TX-18, and TX-30 crossed from an African-American plurality to a Hispanic plurality (although the Houston districts may have switched back, thanks to the New Orleans diaspora). While most districts are becoming less white, one district actually crossed the other way: HI-02 crossed from an Asian plurality to a white plurality.

Districts with white majority not represented by white

(Despite the Anglo name, Trent Franks identifies as Mexican-American and is a member of the Congressional Hispanic Conference, the Republican equivalent to the Congressional Hispanic Caucus. Anna Eshoo is of Assyrian descent; I don’t know if she would describe herself as white or Asian.)

Districts with white plurality not represented by white

(The Census Bureau, for some reason, does not have estimated populations for 2005 for the 110th congress (only for the 109th congress, which doesn’t reflect Georgia’s mid-decade redistricting), so the numbers for GA-02 are based on the actual 2000 census count. As you can see, it may have crossed into an African-American plurality in the last few years.)

Districts with African-American majority not represented by African-American

Districts with African-American plurality not represented by African-American

Districts with Asian majority not represented by Asian

Districts with Asian plurality not represented by Asian

Districts with Hispanic majority not represented by Hispanic

Districts with Hispanic plurality not represented by Hispanic

(Devin Nunes is a member of the Congressional Hispanic Conference, but identifies as Portuguese-American, which at least to me does not imply either “Hispanic” (from a Spanish-speaking background) or “Latino” (from a Latin American background).)

SurveyUSA gives notice of their upcoming polls that will be released this weeks:

Missouri’s Republican primary for governor and a peek at November.

Massachusetts’ US Senate primaries.

North Carolina November matchups for President, Governor, and US Senate.

A look ahead to November in Missouri’s 6th Congressional District.

Approval ratings and head to head November matchups in multiple states … including, for the first time, a look at how some potential November tickets do against one another.

Looks like Haggai over at Open Left was right about the vice presidential polls.  If you ever find yourself being polled about a downballot race (House, Senate, or Governor), let us know about it!

Stay tuned to SSP for full coverage as all these polls break.

(H/T: ChadInFL)

May has been a busy month and it is more than half over.  I have a few important things to announce this week.

1. CHANGES IN THE CAMPAIGN ORGANIZATION — We are going to make several important changes to the campaign organization this week.  These moves will bring in some new people with important knowledge, experience and expertise to the campaign and will change the roles of some people already involved with the campaign.

Henry Guthrie of DuBois will be moving from the position of Vice Chairman to Chairman of the McCracken for Congress committee.  Henry and his wife Molly have been very involved with the campaign since we began in January and I have great confidence in his political knowledge and abilities.  I worked closely with Henry in 2007 when we were both candidates for office at the county level.

Victor M. Ordonez will continue in the position of Media & Policy Advisor.  Victor brings years of political experience working in campaigns.  His prior positions have included working for Rep. Joseph Sestak (PA-07) and helping to get Senator Robert Casey Jr. elected in 2006.

Keith Bierly is coming on board as a campaign advisor.  Keith brings a wealth of knowledge to the campaign serving 12 years as a District Justice and 16 years as Centre County Commissioner.  Keith will be working on specific areas of the campaign to coordinate the efforts of the entire committee and we’re pleased to have him take this official role with the campaign.

Tim Fannin from the accounting firm of Catalano, Case, Catalano and Fannin will be taking over as Treasurer.  Running for federal office with all the required FEC and IRS filings takes a great deal knowledge.  Tim is a highly experienced accountant in the Clearfield area who has served on many boards and organizations including the Clearfield County Industrial Development Authority and the Clearfield County Economic Development Corporation among others.   With the appointment of Tim Fannin as Treasurer we are moving Milt Weisman to the position of Assistant Treasurer where he will remain involved with the campaign.

Recognizing the key role that Centre County plays in the 5th Congressional District, it is important to name someone to the position of Centre County Coordinator.   I didn’t have to look far to find someone with the credentials I was looking for.  Tim Wilson shares a passion for many of the same issues I’m stressing in the race for US Congress.  Tim is interested in alternative fuels, environmental issues, fiscal responsibility, health care reform, farmland preservation, support for public education and many of the other issues the McCracken for Congress campaign is all about.  An additional benefit of having Tim on our committee is, while he is now living in Centre County, he is originally from Jefferson County and will be able to help the campaign in those areas of the district also.

We’ve also invited Andrea Smith of Glen Richey to take over the role of Secretary of the committee.  Andrea has worked for many years as a legal secretary in the Clearfield area and has supported and assisted me in my past campaigns for school director and county commissioner.

We’re excited to have these people on board with the campaign.  We also have a number of people from every county in the 5th district offer to work for the campaign.  The solid organization we are putting together will help us run strong in every county in the 5th district.

2: CONGRATULATIONS TO TRAVIS CHILDERS — This past Tuesday Democrat Travis Childers was elected to the US Congress in a special election to fill a vacant seat in the state of Mississippi.   This was the third Democratic victory so far in 2008 in special elections.  The 3 seats in Mississippi, Louisiana and Illinois (the seat of former Speaker Dennis Hastert) were all considered to be traditional Republican seats and have been captured by Democrats.  It will take a great deal of hard work but we can accomplish this same feat here in the 5th Congressional District in November.

3: ARMED FORCES AWARENESS DAY — On Saturday, I took part in the Armed Forces Awareness Day ceremony in Clearfield.  This is the 5th consecutive year that I’ve participated as a county commissioner in this moving ceremony.  It is so important that we take time to recognize the commitment of the men and women who are serving and who have served in our armed forces.  

The ceremony in Clearfield is always so special with emotional speeches, patriotic songs by the DuBois American Legion Band and special recognition of the veterans and active servicemen in attendance.  This year, there were several very special guests including 2 Gold Star Mothers and a Clearfield County veteran who is a survivor of the attack on Pearl Harbor.

4: This coming week, Kelly, Amanda and I will be spending Saturday in Tioga County to attend the Blossburg Coal Festival and participate in the parade.  We also will be traveling later in the day to Wellsboro to meet with people who are interested in helping with the campaign.  If anyone from Tioga County would like to meet with us in Wellsboro, please email the campaign at mccrackenforcongress@verizon.net.

Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate For Congress

————————————————————————————————–

This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

ActBlue page

SurveyUSA (5/16-18, likely voters, 5/9-11 in parens):

Bruce Lunsford (D): 47 (41)

Greg Fischer (D): 26 (23)

Others: 23 (30)

Undecided: 4 (6)

(MoE: ±4%)

Stick a fork in it, ’cause Greg Fischer’s campaign is done.

Primary: May 20th

The Minneapolis Star-Tribune (5/12-15, likely voters):

Al Franken (D): 44

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 51

(MoE: ±3.6%)

Coleman has a 45-31 approval/disapproval rating, while Franken is viewed unfavorably more than he is favorably (39% to 33%).  Franken’s recent income tax woes, which have dogged his campaign for the past month, make 28% of respondents less likely to vote for him.

The same round of polling shows Obama crushing McCain in the state by a 51-38 margin.  Franken has some work to do if he wants to catch on to that wave.

SSP currently rates this race as Leans Republican.

(H/T: Political Wire)

(originally posted on the Bruin Democrats blog)

I’m going to be highlighting House and Senate races around the country for the Bruin Democrats on our blog, as most of the presidential stuff is over with, so they can become SSP-like junkies too.  🙂  I’ll probably make about 2-3 posts per week over there, each time focusing on a specific seat and filling them in on the background of the district and the dynamics in play.  Unlike us junkies here, they’re not going to be anywhere as familiar with who the people are, so I’ve got to start from the beginning.  A 1Q report?  What’s that?

These posts are written as a primer so that someone with absolutely no prior knowledge about the seat or who the incumbent or challenger is can come away with a good idea of what’s going on, and maybe even send some dollars over to the Democrat’s campaign, if they feel compelled enough to do so.

So I figured I’d post what I wrote over there on SSP, since this is a site for us Congressional race junkies, after all.  🙂  Y’all probably know all this stuff already, but I hope you guys still find it entertaining and informative.  The original post, below the fold.

So I figured that with most of the action over in California, I’d turn to the House and Senate races around the country to highlight some interesting races.  There will be a quiz in November, so take notes, LOL.  I’ve already highlighted races in IL-14, CA-12, LA-06, NY-13, and MS-01, plus a look at some California House races and some key Senate races, which I will periodically update.  Now, before anonymous Republicans try to spam the comments section, the races that I’ll be highlighting do not necessarily mean I’m guaranteeing a Democratic victory in those places.  Many of these places are going to be Republican strongholds.  This is meant to provide a window into what’s happening all over our country as we head towards November, to get other Bruin Democrats reading this more familiar and aware with what’s happening on the ground in other places.  In 2006, as we celebrated taking back the House with a big scorecard marking down congressional districts one by one as they flipped, most of us didn’t know who the Democrats that won even were, or the Republicans that they defeated.  Hopefully these posts will make it more personal come November.  🙂

That said, let’s look at a House race deep in the heart of Texas, in its 7th district.  Rep. John Culberson (R) is the current representative, having served there since 2001.  He’s been the source of some comedy gold on the blogs this week for getting totally smacked down by Rep. David Obey (D-WI) on the House floor.  If you’re gonna rail against a bill, you might want to read it first to know what you’re talking about.  Oops.  Oh, we had some fun with him!

Now that’s some serious pwnage.

This year, Culberson is facing a serious challenge from an energy executive.  What’s that, you say?  A Democratic energy executive?  Well, yes, an alternative energy executive.  His name is Michael Skelly, and he’s the former chief development officer of Horizon Wind Energy.  Now here’s the amazing thing.

Businessman Michael Skelly is positioned to be at the top of the Democratic fundraising list for the year’s first quarter, according to a Democratic operative, raising about $750,000 from individual donors without even tapping into his substantial personal wealth. Another Democratic operative said it could be the “best first quarter ever” for any House Democrat in his first filing period.

Skelly has already handily outdistanced Culberson in fundraising – rare for a challenger – banking more than $402,000 in mid-February, according to his latest FEC filing.

Skelly’s incredible fundraising is getting both local and national blog attention.  By the end of the 1st quarter (January – March 2008), Skelly had 246% more cash on hand than Culberson.  Here’s the local ABC affiliate’s report on the race.

Rasmussen sure has a lot of good news for us lately (likely voters, 5/15):

Scott Kleeb (D): 40

Mike Johanns (R): 55

(MoE: ±4%)

This race is definitely one of the longer shots of 2008, but Kleeb at 40% is definitely a strong position for a Nebraska Democrat to start off at, especially against a popular former Governor like Johanns, who is viewed favorably by 65% of the state’s voters.  Kleeb’s favorables are at 56%.

In the Presidential race, McCain leads Obama here by a relatively modest 50-39.  (You may recall that Kerry lost Nebraska by a whopping 66-33.)  Incidentally, Clinton would lose the state by a much wider 57-34.  I wish Rasmussen’s crosstabs would break down the results by congressional district, because I suspect the Omaha-based NE-02 might be in play.

“I’m staying,” Boehner told ABC host George Stephanopoulos. “My job is to help bring our members together.”

Boehner said he talked late last week with Cole (R-Okla.), whose job security as chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee is now in question after losing a third straight special election.

“Tom and I had a very good meeting on Friday – frank and constructive and positive,” Boehner said. “He’s staying.”

Rest of the article here: http://www.politico.com/blogs/…

Boehner is doing a really bang up job here.  First, he admits what his job is. That opens the doors to criticism that, rightly so, he just is not getting the job done.  He has made public statements saying what Republicans need to do; brand themselves as change, donate to the NRCC, etc. and nothing seems to change.  

Second, he took the time to chainlink himself to Tom Cole, like he needed help putting his leadership position into question.  

This is too precious.  It is like Republicans have turned into a bunch of chickens running around with their heads cut off.  That is only after 33 seats have gone down the tube over the past year and a half.  Just wait till we build on that after 2008.  Too precious.  

I’ve been thinking a lot lately about Barack Obama’s impact on downballot races across the country, particularly after Republican Greg Davis’ thinly veiled race-baiting campaign ended up creating an African-American backlash that handed Mississippi’s 1st district to Travis Childers last Tuesday. Davis figured that polarizing the district along racial lines would be a winning formula, considering that MS-01 is “only” 27% black. He learned a costly lesson.

The New York Times piece I linked above quotes an Atlanta-based political scientist who predicts that, with Obama at the top of the ticket, we’ll see “the largest black turnout in the history of the United States”. I have little reason to doubt it. Indeed, there are clear signs that the Obama campaign is going to do everything it can to ramp up African-American voter registration and turnout this fall, even in deeply red Southern states.

So where might we see the biggest impact of this energized African-American electorate (the most loyal of all Democratic constituencies) down the ballot? Let’s start by taking a look at the GOP-held House districts with a black population greater than 20%. (All numbers are from 2005, courtesy of Tech Politics.)

Incumbent	District	Black Pop.
Chip Pickering	MS-03	33.9%
Jim McCrery	LA-04	33.6%
Rodney Alexander	LA-05	32.9%
Randy Forbes	VA-04	31.9%
Mike Rogers	AL-03	31.4%
Phil Gingrey	GA-11	30.9%
Terry Everett	AL-02	29.8%
Steve Chabot	OH-01	28.4%
Robin Hayes	NC-08	28.1%
Jo Bonner	AL-01	28.0%
Joe Wilson	SC-02	26.7%
Charles Boustany	LA-07	25.2%
Virgil Goode	VA-05	22.5%
Patrick Tiberi	OH-12	21.6%
Thelma Drake	VA-02	21.5%
Jack Kingston	GA-01	21.4%
Henry Brown	SC-01	21.1%
Ted Poe	TX-02	20.5%

Retiring incumbents are in italics.

Now, I’m not suggesting that Obama is going to give magical coattails that will allow all downballot Dems to win in these tough districts, but his candidacy does create a unique dynamic of sky-high African-American turnout that should be a net plus for most Democratic challengers in these seats.

We’ve got strong candidates waging credible campaigns in a number of these districts, particularly in LA-04 (Paul Carmouche), AL-02 (Bobby Bright), and OH-01 (Steve Driehaus). We also have some surprisingly well-funded challengers emerging in the two South Carolina districts — Linda Ketner in SC-01 and Rob Miller in SC-02. These are tough districts for any Democrat to win, but it sure looks like they picked the right year to try.

After Childers’ win, I’m starting to wonder if former Rep. Ronnie Shows is regretting his decision not to run for the open seat that Chip Pickering is leaving behind.

Update: SSP’s DavidNYC has an excellent post on DailyKos analyzing Obama’s chances in Mississippi.