The last two internal polls released from Connolly’s camp in January and March showed him leading Byrne by 20 points.
The only other poll released by the Byrne campaign, also from January, had Byrne up by ten. So it’s sort of curious that Byrne’s campaign is claiming to have the momentum:
“With 20 days to go it’s an absolute dead heat,” said Byrne campaign manager Joe Fox. “Leslie Byrne has momentum and is in position to win this primary.”
When asked about the fact that Byrne’s apparent lead has actually shrunk since the campaign’s last poll in January, Fox said: “Voters pay attention at different times. These numbers are fluid from one month to the next. But the bottom line is there are less than three weeks left and it’s a dead heat.”
It’s hard to say who really has the upper hand here, if anyone. However, it’s worth noting that Connolly picked up the endorsement of Gov. Tim Kaine yesterday.
As I noted in my wrap-up of the OR-Sen Democratic primary, Speaker Jeff Merkley and the Democrats have the grassroots, the issues, and the momentum. All Republican Gordon Smith has going for him is a campaign bankroll just shy of $5 million.
Smith is unquestionably vulnerable. With enough resources, Merkley will be able to cut through Smith’s spin and deliver the facts of Smith’s record to the voters of Oregon. But, of course, he’ll need the support of people throughout the grassroots and the netroots.
To that end, I have added Merkley to the Expand the Map! ActBlue page and am announcing the “Twenty Twenties for Jeff Merkley” effort. Basically, I’m pleading with twenty of you to contribute at least twenty dollars via the Expand the Map! ActBlue page toward helping Jeff Merkley oust Gordon Smith. Can twenty of you spare twenty bucks to bounce a bum like Republican Gordon Smith from the hallowed halls of the U.S. Senate?
I think we can get twenty twenties in by the end of Memorial Day weekend. Please contribute if you can. Thanks yet again!
With the field set for the open seat battle in Oregon’s 5th Congressional District, the Swing State Project is updating its rating of this race from Tossup to Leans Democratic.
A D+0.5 district that Bush won narrowly in 2004, Republicans considered this race a rare pickup opportunity in a bad cycle. But a number of events give the Democratic nominee, state Sen. Kurt Schrader, the early edge:
1) The GOP primary was especially brutal, with frequent candidate Kevin Mannix releasing allegations that businessman Mike Erickson had a hard-partying (not-so-distant) past that included recreational cocaine use and impregnating his girlfriend and paying for her abortion. Erickson survived the primary, but in part due to Oregon’s mail-in ballot system. Late deciding voters favored Mannix by 14 points in SurveyUSA’s final poll of the race, but by that point, too many voters had already cast their lot with Erickson before the allegations had their full effect.
2) Erickson is entering the general election campaign badly wounded in the press and among the GOP faithful. Mannix issued this scathing non-endorsement today:
“I will not support him because he’s a dishonest person and that’s my bottom line,” Mannix told the Politico. “I cannot support a dishonest campaign. I need to stick to my principles here, and he’ll have to deal with it. That doesn’t mean I’m endorsing or supporting the Democrat, but I’m not doing anything for him.”
On top of that, Oregon Right to Life had asked Erickson to drop out of the race, and they’re refusing to support him in his general election bid. Ouch.
3) Just as compelling is the rapid Democratic trend in the district’s voter registration tallies. As recently as January, Republicans had a voter registration edge of 146,394 to 142,557 for the Democrats. The April numbers show a dramatic turnaround: Democrats now have a voter registration advantage of 161,384 to the GOP’s 143,365. So while Democrats have increased in number in this district, Republican registration has actually seen a slight decline.
While this race could still be competitive, the burden is now on Erickson to prove that it is.
With Vito Fossella out of the race, the NY-13 district is becoming more and more attractive to some of the stronger potential Democratic candidates. According to the New York Times Assemblyman Mike Cusick and City Councilman Michael McMahon are expressing their clear interest in running.
Shortly after Mr. Fossella announced his decision Tuesday, two Democrats from Staten Island said they were interested in the seat: Councilman Michael E. McMahon, who has represented northern Staten Island since 2002, and Michael Cusick, a state assemblyman who represents an area in the center of the island.
“I am having earnest discussions with the other folks who are interested and the county leaders in Staten Island and Brooklyn,” Mr. McMahon said Tuesday. “I’m hopeful that we can come to a decision very quickly. Because of the short time frame, it’s important that we unite around a candidate rather than having a primary fight.”
Similarly, Mr. Cusick said that “ultimately, the goal is to win in November” and that “it would be preferable not to have a primary and for the Democrats to work things out.”
THe article says nothing about Dianne Savino entering the race. It looks like a good situation for the DCCC. Their top two recruits clearly want to avoid a tough primary and are willing to sit and work things out, although I don’t know if Harrison shares that sentiment. Of the two, I think Cusick may be the stronger. He is an honorary member of the Fraternal Order of Police, represents part of Staten Island and his ties to Charlie Schumer will make it easy to raise a lot of money in a short time. Savino may be stronger on paper but her running would put her state senate seat at risk when we are trying to flip the chamber. Hopefully, everything will work itself out soon.
Please take a listen at Blue Jersey Radio tonight at 8pm, where NJ-4 Democratic Candidate Josh Zeitz will be a guest. The radio feed streams live
This is a district we can win, and we need to get behind Josh. We have some real opportunities in NJ to turn districts from red to blue.
Chris Smith is an extreme right-winger on social issues, especially relating to reproductive rights. He is the chair of the House anti-choice caucus who has, for example, introduced a constitutional amendment to ban oral contraception. He’s also backed the Bush-McCain Iraq policy from day one.
We need to defeat him and turn NJ-4 blue! More after the jump.
Josh is a career educator, born and raised in the district, who will bring fresh ideas to Congress.
Please take a listen tonight, have a question or two to call in with at (646) 652-2773 and I know you’ll like what you hear. For more on Josh’s appearance, check out the diary on Blue Jersey.
To volunteer for the campaign, please get in touch with me: ian_at_joshzeitz_dot_com. I am a volunteer myself, and serve as Josh’s Netroots Outreach Coordinator.
I started Americans for Ryan some months back to try and raise $1500 for Heather Ryan by the time of the Kentucky primary she was unopposed in. Now, shortly after I did this I lost almost a whole month of working on this project when I was diagnosed with Type 1 Diabetes. Despite this setback, my fellow Democrats in the blogosphere came through nicely for me. I can proudly say today, that because of you I shattered my goal by May 20. Instead of $1500, I managed to raise $1745!!!
Yes, Americans for Ryan has been a smashing success so far!! This district is winnable. We have a great candidate, we just have to give her the resources she needs!! Many of you came through nicely. During this time, our candidate Heather Ryan has evolved into a tough campaigner who isn’t going to take anything whatsoever from the McConnell machine here in Kentucky. If you don’t believe me, check out these speeches from Heather:
I am particularly proud of that last speech. That is exactly what Democrats need to sound like in this election year!!
Heather also acknowledged our efforts in this interview last week:
Yes Heather, we must fight for all our fine Democrats everywhere!! Our new President needs an expanded majority!!
Now with that in mind today starts a new fundraising period, and brings about a new goal. I hope to have my page to $5000 by July the 4th, the “Independence from Exxon Eddie” fundraiser!! Thats leaves me $3255 from my goal by July 4!! Kentuckians and indeed Americans need “Independence from Exxon Eddie”, because with all his Exxon and Chevron stock he is voting against legislation to make Alternative and Renewable energy feasible. Yes, Exxon Eddie votes his stock options. Here is what Heather thinks about the promise of Renewable Energy:
Now in the coming few days I will be digging up a couple of new prizes out of my collection of historical political memorabilia to hold another drawing for everyone who donates between May 21 and July 4. Please watch for that in the next couple of days.
But first, I must announce the winner of the drawing for these two pinback buttons from the 1960 campaign of JFK:
Now, this morning I took all the names that had contributed on or before May 20, excluding myself, my father, and my girlfriend and wrote them on individual pieces of paper. I put them in a jar, lidded it, shook it up real good and let my girlfriend draw a name. The winner was an awesome Democrat I have seen on Kos and EENRblog. I won’t give her real name, but her username on these sites is valsagem.
So to valsagem, your a winner!!! Your buttons will be sent out today or tomorrow. To everyone else, thank you so much for your support. I wish I could send something to everyone to show my appreciation. In the next couple of days I should have to new prizes up for our “Independence from Exxon Eddie” fundraiser, so please keep wathching!!
Please continue to support our efforts to expand our Congressional majorities with a “Fighting Democrat” that will fight for us. Go here to make our next fundraiser a success, and enter our new drawing for our new prizes. I will be posting them in the next couple of days.:
[GOP Rep. Thaddeus McCotter] also called for more out-of-the-box strategies, such as proposing a theme of “Nancy Pelosi, the San Francisco Threat,” sung to the tune of the Rice-a-Roni jingle.
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