Month: June 2008

According to the latest Rasmussen poll yesterday. link to polling info These poll numbers seem a bit iffy to me considering that Noriega was only 4 points down last month. In any event, Noriega still has another few days on Active Duty this week

As we all know, bad polling numbers can really suffocated national momentum. I do question these polling numbers and I will explain why.

Although last months numbers may have been a bit too optimistic.

The poll gives this information

Cornyn is supported by 86 percent of Republicans and has a two-to-one edge among unaffiliated voters. Last month, his lead among the unaffiliateds was just four percentage points. Noreiga attracts 72 percent of Democrats, down from 81 percent a month ago.

The Democrat leads among voters under 30, reflecting a nationwide trend. He is competitive among those who earn less than $40,000 a year. However, Cornyn has the advantage among adults over 30 and those with annual incomes topping $40,000.

Incumbents who poll below 50 percent are generally considered vulnerable. Cornyn has moved slightly above that threshold, but many of his colleagues remain in challenging races

Now of course this comes from Rasmussen so I see a little bias right there. I’m not much of a conspiracy theorist except when it comes to Karl Rove, but maybe they even had bad numbers last month on purpose so they could balance them out with improved numbers this month and show the momentum was going back to Cornyn. After Cornyn voted against the New GI Bill and Rick has started receiving national attention I just do not buy these numbers. Maybe last months were out of whack, but I certainly see this as being less than 17 points. I think they can only go up.

Maybe he got some play from his crazy logic last week that the Global Climate Change bill would cost Texas 300k jobs. Mind you that gas prices have skyrocketed to over $4.00 while Cornyn and his Republican Cronies have been in Congress. That rise of gas prices certainly hasn’t cost the citizens of Texas any jobs right?

Cornyn did get some mileage out of saying that the global change bill would cost gas prices to rise immediately. scroll down to bottom of article for quote

So as gas prices rise and Democrats are increasingly spending more money for the necessities with the status quo politics of the Republican adminstration, John Cornyn’s poll numbers mysteriously rise. I’m going to do what I can to make this and other races competitive.

go to this act blue page

or click on the thermometer to make a difference now

 

Writing on the blog for Democrats in the Savannah area, someone named karen wrote:

Bill Gillespie has been talking to the DCCC … he may have a real chance of unseating Jack Kingston [in GA-01] … The huge increase in voter registration in Georgia this year is key.

The important thing we need to do is to turn out the vote in the primary. If Bill gets more votes in the primary than Jack, the DCCC will come down and do a poll … put him on the list of candidates they support.

The Georgia primary will be June 16 (a Monday? but I’m looking at the SOS page).

Karen, Bill, all the Democrats in Georgia, I wish you good luck. This district went for W by 66.3% and for the incumbent Repub in ’06 by 68.5%. But you never will win if you don’t try.

Other postings make clear that Georgia Democrats expect to benefit from much attention from the Obama campaign, with paid staff and Fellows and other volunteers, of course, working on voter registration all summer.

Looks like they have a great candidate, for this or almost any district.

Bill Gillespie of Chatham County served 23 years in the U.S. Army, retiring last year as a Lt. Colonel. In 2003, he served in Iraq … earning a Bronze Star.

Most recently, Gillespie worked as Army ROTC Program Director, charged with supervising programs at Georgia Southern University, Savannah State University, Armstrong Atlantic State University, Savannah College of Art & Design and St. Leo University. He also ran all of southeast Georgia’s Army Junior ROTC Programs.

Well, there you are. It’s southeast Georgia, from the Savannah suburbs to the Florida border. It’s where we need to win if we are going to purge the reichtwingers from our body politic. It won’t be easy, but it’s worth doing — and this race just may be worth watching this time around.

One of the most widely known axioms in modern politics is the belief in the “God Gap” which says, essentially, that the higher the frequency of church attendance, the higher the likelihood a person will vote Republican. Essentially it has declared Republicans as the party of the faithful and Democrats as the secular or athiest party.

Democrats have tried in recent years to reach out to religious voters in far more concrete ways, from forming a Faith in Action office in the DNC, to specialty political consulting firms forming to help Democrats do faith outreach. Candidates like Heath Shuler in North Carolina and Ted Strickland in Ohio were undeniably helped by this type of religious outreach and GOTV.

A recent study by the Henry Institute at Calvin College now reveals how the 2008 political religious map looks, and has some surprising and interesting findings about both religious voters partisanship and their evolving views on social issues. What’s also nice is how this study breaks voters down (unlike exit polls) by not just religious denomination but also orthodoxy. This is the type of study Democratic strategist should be looking at as they prepare their outreach.  

The first point to take is that Evangelical partisanship has not changed in the last four years (still a 29% GOP advantage) and, though stagnating, has widened significantly since 1992.

This group, which represents a little more than a quarter of the electorate favored the Republican Party over the Democratic Party 48 percent to 32 percent in 1992, but now leans Republican 54 percent to 25 percent.

Republican’s now have this quarter-sized voting bloc firmly wrapped up, and the Democrats have thus far proved ineffective in their outreach. (Though it is perhaps a small victory that the gap has not widened.)

Better news: Mainline Protestants, about 20% of the electorate, have made a massive swing to the left. Alienated by the extremism of the Religious Right, Mainlines are for the first time in modern history, siding with the Democrats.

Historically, Mainline Protestants have been the mainstay of the Republican coalition.  Even as late as 1992, Mainline Protestants were heavily Republican in their partisan identifications (50 percent Republican to 32 percent Democratic). But, in 2008, Mainline Protestants are for the first time since at least the beginning of the New Deal more Democratic than Republican in their partisan identifications (46 percent to 37 percent, respectively).

Roman Catholics, again about a quarter of the electorate are again the ultimate swing vote. Catholics have sided with the popular vote winner in every presidential election since Truman.

In 2008, a plurality of non-Hispanic Catholics remain Democratic in their partisan identifications-but only barely so.  As a result, non-Hispanic Roman Catholics (whose total numbers are similar to that of Mainline Protestants) continue to remain the largest religious tradition most evenly divided in their partisan inclinations and most likely to be “up for grabs” in the 2008 presidential election (38 percent Republican; 41 percent Democratic).

Now there is a growing theory that there really is no Catholic vote. The argument goes that Catholics tend to vote along socio-economic lines (or ethnic lines) but their vote is rarely directly tied to their Catholicism. It is important to note here though that those self-identifying as traditional Catholics due side with Republicans.

On social issues there is again mixed news for the Dems. Since 2004, the support for environmental regulation has dropped. This is surprising with the recent “Creation-Care” theology of leaders like Rev. Richard Cizik and Joel Hunter. Younger evangelicals too have been thought to have been better on the environment. I tend to agree with Mark Silk who said,

The explanation has to do, I think, with the way the question is asked: “Strict rules to protect the environment are necessary even if they cost jobs or result in higher prices.” In other words, less support for environmental regulation may simply reflect higher economic anxieties…and not all groups show this tendency. Jews, Blacks, and Latinos all have become more environmentalist, by modest amounts, and the unaffiliated, by a hefty amount. Atheists and Agnostics are not the most pro-environment group in the country, at 81 percent. Environmentalism is their religion.

Allowing a woman to solely decide on abortion is supported by 53 percent of the entire religious sample, as opposed to 40 percent against. And by a margin of 47 percent to 41 percent, respondents do not agree that gays and lesbians should be permitted to marry legally. Surprisingly for some, Catholics support abortion rights 51-43, and are almost evenly split on gay marriage, 43 percent against and 45 percent for. It is this growing demographic change on gay marriage that should certainly frighten social conservatives (although studies show that young people are more pro-life than their parents.

Finally only one group now fully supports the US Occupation of Iraq: evangelicals, 57 percent to 35 percent. Among them, the traditionalists support our having gone to war 64-27, while centrist and modernist evangelicals are barely in favor. All other groups are opposed. One could argue that the question of Iraq is now a religious question, with only the most conservative Christians supporting it. John McCain will win the far religious right vote with his saber-rattling with Iran and Iraq, however he risks losing the moderate Evangelical vote if he overplays his hand. Moderate evangelicals are in play for Obama in this election.

What an incredible Monday to be a part of the John Boccieri for U.S. Congress Campaign team. Yes, Politicos the game is officially on and Kirk Schuring wants every Democrat in Ohio’s Fighting 16th District to be at the Canton Greek Festival at 5 pm Friday and then to follow him on over to First Friday for a Hometown Welcome!

Sometimes, I have to sit a really ponder what goes through a politicians head to make them say some of the the things they say. This time the answer is easy…Kirk was “fluffing” for John McCain. Oh, what a great honor and opportunity to spew divisive hate language!

Read on for more details and don’t forget your popcorn and a cold one for the movie. You’ll want to watch it over and over again!

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE June 9, 2008

CONTACT: Alex Goepfert, 614-207-1714 (cell)

Communications Director

Kirk’s Schuring’s YouTube Moment

Republican Congressional Candidate Kirk Schuring Slurs Canton Residents in Ugly, Partisan Rant

COLUMBUS – Standing before a crowd of fellow Republicans at a “John McCain for President Rally” on Thursday, Republican congressional candidate Kirk Schuring launched into an ugly, partisan rant attacking the residents of Canton, Ohio.

In a newly released video of the June 5th event at Ashland Corner Park, Schuring tells his partisan audience:

“So the other thing I know is that Ashland County has a rich history and tradition of rallying around Republicans, and I was telling people earlier where I come from we could never have a rally like this in the center of Canton. If we did we might be shot at, but not in Ashland and that’s what makes you so great.”

The clip is available here. The full video is available here

“It is appalling to witness Kirk Schuring speaking with such venom and disdain toward the very individuals he is seeking to represent in Congress,” said Ohio Democratic Party Communications Director Alex Goepfert. “Kirk Schuring’s ugly, divisive, hyper-partisan comments do a terrible disservice to the residents of Canton and to all OhioansKirk Schuring and his campaign were apparently rather proud of his remarks. The following day, Schuring touts the “warm welcome” he received at the event in an email to supporters.



Below is the text of that newsletter.

Schuring for Congress Newsletter

151 Days Until Victory!

June 6, 2008

>From Our Community, For Our Community…

This was a busy week on the campaign trail. Our organization has expanded and we’re excited about the level of enthusiasm we’ve seen at events throughout the week.

As our organization continues to build, we’ve seen some changes with campaign staff as well. This past Monday Staci Hansel started on the campaign as Political Director and today is Gavin Blair’s final on the campaign before he moves back to Columbus. We’re excited to have Staci on board and I’m thankful for the hard work Gavin put in these many months on my behalf!

On Thursday night I spoke in Ashland County at a rally for John McCain and received a very warm welcome from local community members. Thanks to hard working folks at the Ashland County GOP for putting on a fantastic event.

Don’t forget to come out and join me tonight in downtown Canton at the Greek Festival at 5pm. After the Greek fest I’ll be heading over to Canton’s First Friday event.Thanks again for your continued support!

Kirk Schuring

Oh, my! You are winning hearts there Senator and your endorsement from the Canton Repository. HAH!

Now, don’t fade on me yet fans. There’s more to this whole story.What does State Senator Major John Boccieri think about all this?

For Immediate Release

June 9, 2008

Contact: Ian Walton, 330-754-0534

The Politics of Division is Wrong for America!



Senator Boccieri issued the following statement today regarding the release of video footage of Sen. Kirk Schuring’s comments in Ashland County today:

::One more time just to jog your memory!::

“While my opponent comments publicly about hispreferred constituency, I would be proud to serve in the Congress on behalf of every man, woman, and child in the 16th District regardless of geography, age, race, gender, or religious affiliation.

“Senator Schuring’s partisan comments are the type of political ideology that is dividing our nation. At the end of the day the race for this seat, shouldn’t be about Democrats, Republicans or Independents, red states or blue states, conservatives or liberals, but about America. Our nation needs strong leadership to help turn around our failing economy, bring our troops home safely, honorably and soon, and move away from our dependence on foreign oil.

“As for my campaign, we will have rallies, town hall meetings, and events in every corner of this district, not only where it is politically comfortable, but in every region. It is important that we all come together to help change America.”

Thank you for setting the record straight, again, Major Boccieri! We have put up with enough hate-mongering, war-mongering, greed and discrimination to last a lifetime. The last person Ohio’s 16th Congressional District needs in Congress is Kirk Schuring.

“Go, Bo!”

SurveyUSA (6/6-8, likely voters):

John Yarmuth (D-inc): 57

Anne Northup (R): 40

(MoE: ±3.9%)

There has been some nervousness recently surrounding Yarmuth’s re-election prospects, given Northup’s early fundraising strength and Barack Obama’s weaknesses in Kentucky (even though he actually beat Clinton in KY-03). These poll numbers should certainly calm the nerves a bit.

While Yarmuth should never underestimate Northup’s abilities, this is a reassuring sign that the ground has indeed shifted in Louisville, where Northup has built a long resume of crushing Democratic hopes cycle after cycle until her defeat in 2006.

UPDATE: Like clockwork, the Northup campaign has released their own internal poll showing a closer race. Voter/Consumer Research (6/4-5 & 6/8, likely voters):

John Yarmuth (D-inc): 51

Anne Northup (R): 43

(MoE: ±5%)

The pollster himself acknowledges that even this is “not great news” for Northup, but sounds a predictable note of optimism for her chances despite a national environment that “gotten substantially worse for Republicans since the beginning of the year”.

I like both polls.

The other day I commented that while Kirk Schuring, the GOP candidate for the open seat of retiring Rep. Ralph Regula, has not been particularly impressive, he hasn’t made any major mistakes so far.

Obviously, I spoke too soon.

From The Hill:

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) today circulated a video of GOP House candidate Kirk Schuring, at a rally in Ashland, Ohio, saying “we might be shot at” if the rally had been held in the downtown area of nearby Canton.

Schuring was speaking at a John McCain rally, according to the DCCC.

“Where I come from, we could never have a rally like this in the center of Canton. If we did, we might be shot at,” Schuring said. “But not in Ashland, and that’s what makes you so great.”

Here’s the video:

Advice to Schuring: Don’t insult the population anchor of the district that you’re trying to represent while off campaigning in other areas and think you can get away with it in the YouTube age.

McLaughlin and Associates for Jay Love (6/5, likely voters, 5/8 in parens):

Jay Love (R): 60 (33)

Harri Anne Smith (R): 32 (17)

Undecided: 8 (17)

(MoE: ±6%)

Things aren’t looking so good for Harri, which is a shame because I was looking forward to more ads like this one.

Runoff: July 15th

A Choice – More of the Same or Something Different  

On November 4th, voters will have a choice to make, not only in the race for President between Senator John McCain (More of the Same) and Senator Barack Obama (Something Different), but also in each of the contested races for seats in the US Congress.  

Voters have to look no further than two recent congressional roll call votes to see a contrast between the Democratic and Republican parties.  On May 21st, with solid Democratic support, HR 6049 passed on a 263 for / 160 against vote.   HR 6049 provides energy, business and personal tax breaks totaling $55.5 billion to spur the production of non-fossil fuels, promote energy conservation, stimulate business activity and help homeowners and the working poor.  In order to offset the costs of HR 6049, the bill tightens accounting rules on multinational corporations and eliminates certain offshore tax shelters and loopholes utilized by some US hedge fund managers.  Most important, HR 6049 does not add any additional burden to the national debt.

Most encouraging, HR 6049 will have a positive effect right here in north central Pennsylvania with funding to spur renewable energy sources from crops (including corn based ethanol) and by providing incentives for the production of non-corn based ethanol.  Both of these options will support the alternative fuels industry that is coming to north central Pennsylvania creating jobs and investment in the 5th Congressional District.  Additional language authorizes tax breaks for investment in coal gasification technology, another process that could bring jobs and investment to revitalize the coal industry in north central Pennsylvania.  

Because HR 6049 invests in domestically produced alternative energy and offers great benefits to north central Pennsylvania, I would have voted, along with 16 other members of the Pennsylvania delegation, to support the legislation.  The 3 dissenting votes cast from the Pennsylvania delegation came from Republicans John Peterson, Bill Shuster and Joseph Pitts.  

The Republicans offered alternative language that removed the tighter accounting rules to eliminate the offshore tax shelters and loopholes and included language that added $50 billion for a temporary fix for the Alternative Minimum Tax.  The Republican alternative shifted the entire $55.5 billion cost for HR 6049 plus the $50 billion for the temporary fix of the AMT directly to the national debt.  Since a main theme of my campaign is fiscal responsibility and the elimination of the national debt, I would have voted against the alternative language.   The Republican alternative failed 201 for / 220 against with all 8 Republican members of the Pennsylvania delegation voting for the Republican alternative language.   TRANSLATION:  All 8 Republican members of the Pennsylvania delegation voted to add an additional $105.5 billion to the national debt which is closing in on $10 trillion.

Perhaps most disturbing was the following statement made by Rep. Jeb Hensarling R-Texas in opposing HR 6049.  “Under the Democrats control of Congress, we have seen prices at the pump go up about $1.50 a gallon.   They have tried to sue their way to lower gas prices.   Now they are trying to tax their way to lower gas prices.  Yet they never think about producing American energy in America.”.

WHAT WAS THAT?  The entire purpose of HR 6049 is to spur the production of alternative fuels produced right here in the United States of America, creating jobs, investment and decreasing our dependence on foreign oil.   Perhaps it is time for Rep. Hensarling and his cohorts to acknowledge that foreign policy failures by the Bush administration destabilized the Middle East which is THE reason oil is now $140 a barrel and gas is over $4 a gallon.  

The votes on HR 6049 and the Republican alternative language that would have increased the national debt by $105.5 billion are prime examples of what voters must consider when they vote in November.  Maybe the choice isn’t between More of the Same or Something Different.  Perhaps the real choice comes down to More of the Same or Something Better!

Campaign Highlights for the  Week:

Friday morning, Campaign Chairman Henry Guthrie and I stopped in Lock Haven to participate in a candidate forum that was sponsored by Hub’s Home Oxygen Supply.  The event was broadcast live on the radio with Glenn Thompson joining me to take questions for about an hour.   The on site audience consisted of customers and employees of Hub’s Home Oxygen and 10th and 11th grade students from a nearby high school.  Questions ranged from I-80 tolling / highway and bridge funding, health care reform, our stance on Second Amendment rights, the war in Iraq and who we support for president.

Later Friday and on Saturday, Henry and I attended the Democratic State Committee meeting in Harrisburg.  During our time at the state committee meeting we spoke with several people including former Congressman Joe Hoeffel, Ruth Rudy who ran for the 5th District seat in 1996, PA-16 candidate Bruce Slater and Lt. Gov. Catherine Baker Knoll among others.

It was also encouraging to hear strong statements about the Democratic Party unifying behind Senator Barack Obama as our candidate for President.   These messages came from Governor Ed Rendell, Senator Bob Casey and State Chairman T. J. Rooney.   With our party unified we offer voters Something Better on November 4th.

Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate For Congress

————————————————————————————————–

This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

ActBlue page

There’s going to be a healthy amount of turnover in the Senate; even if the Democrats don’t pick up any seats in 2008 (OK, OK, you can stop laughing now), there will still be at least five new faces because of the retirements of Warner, Allard, Domenici, Hagel, and Craig. However, there’s also going to be at least a sixth new face in the Senate, because, barring something really weird happening, either Barack Obama or John McCain is going to be the next President in January, opening up one more seat to be filled by appointment until 2010 (the next general election, but also when Obama and McCain’s terms would end anyway). Unlike the rest of the Senate races, that’s one race we can’t handicap, because we have no idea who the candidates are, and there’s going to be only one voter: either Rod Blagojevich or Janet Napolitano.

This is in the news today because Robert Novak is alleging that Nancy Pelosi has been talking up Rahm Emanuel as the replacement senator. (This being Novak, the safe response might be to assume the exact opposite of what he’s saying. Just consider it a conversation starter.) He described Pelosi as “enthusiastic about Emanuel’s elevation to the Senate.” (Although she might be most enthusiastic about getting one-half of the Hoyer/Emanuel tag-team off her back.)

It seems unlikely to me that Blagojevich would pick Emanuel, though, because Emanuel doesn’t help Blagojevich with either of his competing needs: the pressure to appoint another African-American so that number of black senators doesn’t drop back down to 0, and the desire to move his strongest intra-party competition to Washington and out of his hair. (It also might seem a demotion for Emanuel, who is at the #4 slot in the House as Conference chair, and given his age, a likely candidate for Speaker in the 2020s.)

Probably the most frequently mentioned African-American contender for the position is Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. Jackson is young (41), he’s progressive (near the top of the House, with a Progressive Punch score of about 99), he’s been an effective Obama surrogate, he’d leave behind as safely-Democratic a House seat as can be imagined, and he has name recognition.

Other mentioned African-American contenders include Rep. Bobby Rush (who’s been in IL-01 for many years and is 62), Sec. of State Jesse White (a well-liked longtime fixture in Illinois politics, but 76 years old), State Senate President Emil Jones (who’s a key Blagojevich ally in the legislature, but who’s 72), and State Senator James Claybourne (who’s only 44, but unlike these other contenders, not a Chicagoan (he’s from Belleville, next to E. St. Louis) – and with Dick Durbin already senator, a second Downstate senator is unlikely). One other possibility I saw mentioned was giving Carol Mosely-Braun her old seat back, although given her inability to hold the seat in the first place, that doesn’t seem likely.

The other camp consists of people Blagojevich might like to deport from Illinois by promoting them: Attorney General Lisa Madigan and Comptroller Dan Hynes. It’s unclear whether Blagojevich intends to run for a third term in 2010 (he’s eligible to do so, although given his ethical problems and low approval ratings, it seems he’s likely to head for the exits at that point), but if he does, he’s likely to face primary opposition from one or both of them. And even if he doesn’t run, these two have oversight of his activities and have been constant thorns in his side (and, with one of them in Washington, could then be replaced with one of his own appointees).

Whether or not Blagojevich is an obstacle, either Madigan or Hynes is likely to be the next governor of Illinois. Madigan is 41; Hynes is 39. They’re both well-connected to Illinois machine politics (Madigan’s dad is state house speaker Michael Madigan; Hynes’s dad is former Cook County assessor Thomas Hynes.) One consideration is that Hynes has shown more desire to go to Washington rather than aiming for governor; Hynes ran for the Democratic Senate nomination in 2004, finishing second to Obama in the primary.

Finally, there are several other names who get mentioned but don’t fit into either category: Rep. Jan Schakowsky from IL-09 (she’s also one of the most progressive members of the House and wields a fair amount of leadership clout there, but she’s 64 and has some ethical baggage associated with fraud charges against her husband Robert Creamer), and Illinois Veterans Affairs Dept. Director Tammy Duckworth of IL-06 fame (she brings diversity and Iraq War vet status to the table, but has never actually won an election before). And it can’t be discounted entirely that Blagojevich might appoint himself, since a Senate seat would give him a new career without term limits… although he’d face the same electoral liabilities in 2010 facing Senate re-election as if he were running again for governor.

Turning to Arizona, some of you might be licking your chops, anticipating another Democratic senator, appointed by Janet Napolitano, as the consolation prize in the event of a McCain victory, but that’s not the case. Arizona is one of several states (along with Alaska, Hawaii, Utah, and Wyoming) where the appointed interim senator must be of the same party as the departing senator.

This becomes an interesting strategic decision for Napolitano, though: does she take the easy way out and appoint the Republican who’s at the top of the queue? That would most likely be Jan Brewer, who is Secretary of State and, since Arizona has no Lt. Governor, the state’s #2 person. However, it could be one of the current representatives, most likely John Shadegg, who has more seniority and a higher profile than Trent Franks or Jeff Flake.

Does she appoint the Republican who, ideologically, is likely to suck the least (moderate ex-Rep. Jim Kolbe, who was in AZ-08 for many years, comes to mind), who would be vulnerable to a right-wing primary effort but difficult in a general election?

Or does she try to game the system by appointing the Republican who would provide two years of dislikable right-wing insanity and then an easy opponent in the 2010 general election (when, not coincidentally, Napolitano herself would be term-limited and looking for a new job)? That could be ex-Rep. and professional loudmouth J.D. Hayworth, or, for maximum comedic effect, former State Rep. Randy Graf. (It still probably wouldn’t include current Rep. Rick Renzi, who’s likely to consider 2009 a good year if it involves staying out of prison.)

Related posts:

Whom Might Blagojevich Appoint? (from August 2007)

Rasmussen (6/4, likely voters):

Frank Lautenberg (D-inc): 45

Dick Zimmer (R): 44

Other: 7

Not Sure: 5

(MoE: ±4)

Let’s just say that after this nonsense, I want to start taking Rasmussen with a grain of salt again.

The crosstabs show Lautenberg getting only 70% of Democrats and 69% of Obama voters, while splitting independents with Zimmer by 40-41. Some of this might be chalked to the after-effects of Rob Andrews’ aggressive primary challenge, and some of it could be due to this being a possibly wonky poll.

I’ll wait for some other pollsters to tip their toes into this race before I become concerned.