Month: August 2008

Today, a continuation of a short series looking into the factors affecting the current political climate.  It’s no secret that the country isn’t too happy about the economy, the war in Iraq, and the direction the country is headed in.  But for me at least, I like to see the data.  First, the right track/wrong track question:

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The trend is clear, the numbers are huge: almost three quarters say we’re off on the wrong track.  Much more below.

It is also interesting to see that there was a clear uptick in those that say the country is on the right track just before the 2004 and 2006 elections, but not in Fall 2005 or 2007.  It looks like we’re on track for another one now in 2008 as well.  Campaign dollars at work?  Optimism that one’s preferred party will win?

A longer look back shows the wrong track numbers were also about this high for the 1976, 1980, 1992, and 1994 elections:

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Iraq

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The public continues to believe that the war in Iraq is not worth it.  There’s not much news here over the past year; the economy has taken precedence in the minds of many voters more recently.

The Economy

There have been dramatic changes in the perception of the economy in the past year (I’m not going to go into much of the actual economic data; after all, in politics, perception is reality).  The numbers simply dove off a cliff.  About 80% think the economy is not doing that great (left) and hardly anybody thinks it’s getting better (right):

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These numbers are just as bad as they were in 1980 and 1990:

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Rising prices surely are contributing to opinions of the economy; here’s the price for milk and gas over the past few years:

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Trust and the Issues

So which party do voters trust on the issues they see as important?  Rasmussen has been asking that question every month for more than a year now, so we can see how things have developed:

There’s nothing major, although it looks like some trends away from Democrats on Iraq and national security, while there’s been some improvement on the economy.  At the same time, Rasmussen (and others) also show that the importance of Iraq in voter’s minds has been decreasing while the economy takes precedence.

In other words, from the perspective of issues the voters care about, the political environment is becoming only more favorable to Democrats.

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Polling numbers can be found at pollingreport.com unless otherwiese noted. This is the second in a series looking at the evolution of the political scene since the 2004 and 2006 elections.  The first discussed Bush’s approval ratings.  Tomorrow, information on party approval, identification and some House numbers; after that, a look at fundraising.  Cross posted at Open Left and Daily Kos.

Votes are now being counted in Washington, where the “top two” primaries are being decided. While Washington’s mail-in system will mean that we won’t get the full picture tonight, we’ll at least get a piece of it. We’ll be following the returns for WA-Gov and WA-08 in this here thread.

RESULTS: WA-08 | WA-Gov (by county)

SoS: WA-Gov | WA-08

12:50PM Wed: With 77K votes counted in WA-08, Reichert has a 2600 vote lead over Burner. But: Two other Dems combined brought in an additional 4000 votes, and Reichert has only scored under 48% so far with no other “GOP Party” member on the ballot. Not a bad place for Darcy to be midway through August. Not a bad place, indeed.

12:32AM: SSP Labs is shutting down for the day. Presumably, these results will be finalized in a few days…

12:03AM: Check out the results for WA-08 in more detail — the other two Democrats combine for nearly 6% of the vote. Add all the Dem votes together, and you’re over 50% to the GOP’s 44%.

11:47PM: Reichert has pulled ahead by 1700 votes according to the SoS.

11:45PM: ChuckInSeattle, in the comments, shares some alternate results links (now included above).

11:38PM: 10% reporting statewide, and Gregoire leads Rossi 50-44.

11:27PM: With 13% in, Davey Reichert leads Darcy Burner by a nose: 20,356 to 20,140. Strong turnout so far.

11:19PM ET: Rossi with the early lead (50-43) with 4% in. Nothing from the 8th yet.

Polls have now closed in Wyoming, where we’ll be following the results in the GOP primary for the state’s lone US House seat.

RESULTS: Associated Press (by county)

11:59PM (David): The AP calls it for Lummis, after she led all night. With 98% in, she has a solid eight-point lead.

11:21PM: Lummis now has a 4500 vote lead with only 13% outstanding.

11:14PM: 75% in, and Lummis is up by 3600 even. Lummis-Trauner, he we come.

11:09PM: 70% unloaded, and Lummis is up by 3100 again.

11:02PM: 66% in, and the gap has closed slightly to 2900 votes. SSP Labs tells us that Gordon would have to run 22% better in the remaining precincts to win. A very tall order.

10:58PM: 62% cleared, and the gap has closed — slightly — to 46-38, but Gordon still trails by 3400. Not looking good for the Sierra Club Republican.

10:49PM: Lummis is still up by over 3100 votes with 54% in.

10:42PM: It’s now 47-37, but Lummis has opened up a 3100 vote lead over El Gordo with 46% on the table.

10:36PM: With 35% reporting, our quickie back of the envelope analysis from scientists working at SSP Labs™ reveals that Gordon needs to run about 13% better in the two-candidate vote in order to pull out a win.

10:26PM: It’s now Lummis by 1600 with 30% in.

10:15PM: The trickle becomes a surge — with 26% in, Lummis is up by 1200 votes (45-38).

10:02PM: 12% in, and Lummis is up by nearly 1000.

9:58PM: With 9% reporting, Lummis has a 47-34 lead over Gordon. The margin: 700 votes.

9:48PM: 2% of precincts are now reporting, and Lummis (SSP’s preferred choice) has a 400-vote lead.

9:34PM ET: Lummis has the (very) early lead over Gordon: 89 to 31 votes.

Schuring Follows Boccieri’s Lead on Energy

Canton, OH – Months after U.S. Congressional Candidate John Boccieri first announced his energy plan, opponent Kirk Schuring has finally offered an energy proposal that endorses many of Boccieri’s policies.

Senator Major John Boccieri said in a statement, today:

“I’m flattered that Sen. Schuring has finally embraced energy ideas I’ve been talking about for months, but I’m disappointed it took him this long to realize people are concerned about high gas prices. Unfortunately, his plan still doesn’t provide enough short-term solutions to our high gas prices, and I think voters will wonder whether someone who raised their gas taxes and has taken $20,000 from oil executives is really serious about making the big energy policy changes we need.”

Today Schuring adopted Boccieri’s proposals to crack down on Wall Street speculation, build new refineries, encourage fuel conservation and fuel-efficient vehicle research, and invest in U.S.-based alternative energy technologies like clean coal, nuclear, wind, solar, and biofuels.

I wonder how that will play with the “independent swing-voters”?

However, Schuring’s plan still does not include many measures Boccieri has proposed to provide short-term relief at the pump, such as releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve or pushing oil companies to drill first on the untapped U.S. leases they already hold, including 33.5 million acres off America’s coasts.

Instead, Schuring continues to claim that opening up ANWR and more U.S. coastline to drilling is a “short-term solution” to high gas prices. This notion has been refuted by experts across the political spectrum, including George W. Bush’s own Energy Department, which found that these steps would not have an impact for roughly 20 years.

Boccieri added:

“We need a lot more than drilling to get us out of this mess. We need to do what it takes to lower gas prices quickly and transition to home-grown alternative energy sources as soon as possible.”

Boccieri recently released a new radio spot about his energy plan, which can be heard here.

You can read Boccieri’s complete energy plan is available on his website.

One fact just isn’t going away:

The prize at the end of the primary season in Florida’s pristine District 10 is a meeting with 38 year Republican incumbent C.W. “Bill” Young. The democrat that has established himself as the front runner in this race to lead the charge against Bill Young is Dunedin Mayor Bob Hackworth.

Since 2002, Bob Hackworth’s leadership in environmental issues, diversity, and civil rights has provided a prime example as to what citizens should expect from him in Congress. His record of good government and visionary efforts in Dunedin also closed the deal on his recent endorsement by the St. Petersburg Times. His grasp on national issues has far out shined his two opponents (Max Linn and Samm Simpson). When confronted with the controversial FISA Act, Bob stood firm to his beliefs, saying

“Once again this administration has shown its disregard for the Constitution. By providing the telecom companies with immunity, the senate will be condoning the extra-constitutional actions of this government and be sending a message to the country and the world that big business comes before the freedoms and liberties of the American people. As usual, Rep. Bill Young sided with the administration in voting to restrict the freedoms that this country was founded on.”

Now his district is faced with an even greater dilemma as many feel that it is necessary to include off shore drilling in an energy bill in the future. Despite the Mayor’s strong support of Barack Obama, he refuses to compromise with republicans who wish to take part in the decimation of America’s coastlines.

“The elected officials who represent the people here in Pinellas County have utterly failed on this issue. We need leaders who will be honest about the energy crisis and invest in searching for alternative energy sources, instead of pandering because of $4 a gallon gasoline.”

Expect to hear much more from Bob Hackworth as he raps up his primary victory next week and pushes on towards victory in November.

The phantom poll of Nebraska’s Omaha-based 2nd CD is now unmasked. SSP has obtained a copy of the poll’s internals, and we’ll share the top lines with you below.

Anzalone Liszt (7/27-8/2, likely voters):

Jim Esch (D): 38

Lee Terry (R-inc): 47

(MoE: ±4.0%)

In 2006, Jim Esch held Lee Terry, a five-term but largely unaccomplished congressman, to a surprisingly close 55-45 margin, despite running an underfunded campaign in an R+9 district. Judging by these numbers, if Esch can assemble more resources than the $400K he raised in 2006, he might be able to run an even closer race. Indeed, with only 48% name recognition (to Terry’s 93%), he clearly has room to grow.

On the generic congressional ballot, Democrats only trail Republicans by five points (42-37), which, all things considered, seems to be a dramatic turnaround from the 22 and 18-point drubbings that Bush delivered to Kerry and Gore here in 2004 and 2000, respectively. If Dems are ever going to make a breakthrough in Nebraska, you would figure that Omaha would be ground zero for their resurgence.

Here’s another key number from the poll:

Barack Obama (D): 42

John McCain (R): 46

Obama’s within striking distance of McCain, and if he can manage to win here, he’ll pick off a solid red electoral vote. I wouldn’t bet the bank on it, but the numbers clearly show you why Terry keeps on mouthing off about the surge of “Obama-Terry voters” in the district.

SSP currently rates this race as Likely Republican.

Rasmussen (8/17, likely voters incl. leaners, 7/9 in parens):

Mary Landrieu (D-inc): 56 (51)

John Kennedy (R): 39 (45)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Landrieu delivers a big kick in the pants to Kennedy in this poll, which is always fun to see. Since the last poll, Landrieu has blitzed the state with several ad buys, and these numbers may well be showing the effects of her cash advantage. On the other hand, Rasmussen doesn’t exactly have a clean record of not producing wild outliers, so it’s probably wise to wait for a confirmatory poll or two before anyone declares that Landrieu is enjoying a “bounce”.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Democratic.

Democrats really only have one shot at beating scandal-tainted GOP Rep. Tom Feeney, and that’s by nominating a Democrat who has put together the resources and infrastructure that it takes to win. In this case, it’s former state Rep. Suzanne Kosmas, who has raised over $1.2 million for her campaign to date.

Tom Feeney would desperately love to avoid facing her in November, which is why he’s going to great lengths to lend an assist to Kosmas’ primary challenger, 2006 loser Clint Curtis, a candidate with all but $7,000 in the bank. The Orlando Sentinel has the gory deets:

Democrat Clint Curtis may have a new friend in Republican congressman Tom Feeney.

The third-term lawmaker from Oviedo — who defeated Curtis in 2006 – has been making robo-calls on behalf of Curtis, who is running for the US House again as an underdog in the Democratic primary against former state lawmaker Suzanne Kosmas.

In calls to Central Florida residents, a spokeswoman for the Feeney campaign lauds Curtis and calls him the “only Democrat taking on Tom Feeney that has consistently opposed the war in Iraq.” At the end of the call, the spokeswoman said the calls were “paid for by Tom Feeney for Congress.”

Even with Feeney propping him up, it’s hard to see a path for victory for Curtis, a guy who has only raised $80K for his campaign since the start of 2007, and one who isn’t treated seriously by the local media.

Primary: August 26th

(Bumped – promoted by James L.)

UPDATE: Polls close at 9pm ET in Wyoming, and 11pm ET in Washington. Stay tuned for updates.

It’s primary day in Washington and Wyoming! By the end of the night, we’ll be able to gather some unique data from the hotly-contested gubernatorial and 8th CD races in Washington, as candidates from all parties will square off against each other on the same ballot, and the top two finishers will square off in the general election.

In Wyoming, state Treasurer Cynthia Lummis and rancher Mark Gordon will face off with several other candidates in a hotly-contested primary for the GOP nomination to succeed retiring wingnut Rep. Babs Cubin.

Now’s your chance to reach for Olympic SSP glory. Who will win these races, and by how much?

It’s been quite a while since I crunched some political numbers, so I thought I’d check back in with a series of diaries.  Today, the latest edition of the Bush approval map.

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My, that’s pretty!

Memo to Democrats:  this is an anvil for the falling Republicans.  Please use it.

For perspective, at the time of the 2006 Democratic electoral wave, this is what the map looked like:

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So why am I posting this on Swing State Project?  As I wrote many times before the 2006 election, low approval ratings represent an opportunity for Democrats, not a guarantee.  As it turned out, those who did not approve of Bush in 2006 voted for their Democratic House incumbent.  And those who did approve of Bush voted for their Republican House incumbent.  If a similar dynamic plays out this year, it means almost all Democratic House incumbents are safe, while almost any Republican could be unseated by the right candidate running a good, well-funded campaign.

So Bush approval represented, in 2006 at least, a minimum performance level for incumbent Republicans.  We can see a similar sort of effect in this year’s presidential race.  McCain does not poll worse than Bush’s approval in any state, but he comes close in a few places (Hawaii and Wyoming).  Here’s a map that shows the difference between McCain’s numbers (from Nate Silver’s trend-adjusted polling averages, captured last week) to Bush’s approval ratings:

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Note that this map does not show which states are most competitive.  Instead, it shows where McCain is more popular than Bush.  People who say they will vote for McCain but do not approve of Bush could do so for a number of reasons, and the numbers don’t tell us why or whether they’re different in different regions of the country.  It’s probably safe to say that there’s a home state effect in Hawaii, though.  McCain does best in comparison to Bush’s approval in Appalachia and the Northeast, and worst in the West and the Deep South.  It is suspiciously familiar to the Democratic primary maps.

Tomorrow, the series continues with a look at the biggest issues: the economy and Iraq.  After that, party approval, identification, and some House numbers.  And finally, if the FEC gets its numbers out, some fundraising numbers.

Cross posted at DailyKos and Open Left.