Month: August 2008

This one has been making the rounds today, but we finally have the opportunity to cut ‘er open and take a peak at its innards. SurveyUSA (8/13-14, likely voters, 7/11-13 in parens):

Al Franken (D): 39 (39)

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 46 (52)

Other: 11 (n/a)

(MoE: ±3.8%)

A 13-point gap turns into a 7-point gap, but what’s the X factor here? The Independence Party, who have fielded seven candidates in their primary field, including Dean Barkley (whose 15 minutes expired five and a half years ago). “Other” wasn’t an option in the July poll, and the change in methodology, it seems, has helped shave a few points off Coleman’s hide.

SUSA’s age breakdowns have attracted some skepticism in their prior polls, and Coleman continues to hold a 48-36 lead among 18-34 year-olds, but that’s down sharply from the 58-31 lead he held in the July poll.

Bonus finding: In the presidential race, Obama edges McCain by a mere two points. However, SUSA is finally showing Obama with a clear lead among younger voters; he holds a 51-43 lead among the 18-34 bracket, which seems more reasonable than the 48-48 tie among these voters in SUSA’s June poll of Minnesota.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.

Under intense fire after being nailed for exaggerating his depiction of a 2004 pleasure vacation to Cuba as a “humanitarian trip”, scandal-plagued GOP candidate Mike Erickson is firing back at the media, claiming that the voyage was “one-third” humanitarian:

Erickson maintained on Monday that he brought 20 boxes of medical supplies and delivered them to clinics over two days. He estimated he spent about “one-third” of his time in Cuba doing that.

The other two-thirds, he said, included casual conversations with regular Cubans, whether at a restaurant or on the streets.

“I did a lot of that in that two-thirds. Every time I was at dinner, I talked to the waiters and waitresses and, ‘Hey, you’re young, what do you want to do in life?” he said.

“The other two-thirds wasn’t just leisure, or just whatever it was. It was constantly always asking, ‘Hey, what’s going on in your country here?'”

He called The Oregonian’s story inaccurate and denied ever going marlin fishing, dove hunting, shooting any kind of animal or smoking an entire cigar.

Yup, stop the presses: Mike Erickson did not smoke a cigar from tip to tip while in Cuba.

You almost have to give Erickson credit for taking Clintonian parsing to new heights.

PS: What about cock-fighting, Mike?

cross-posted at Blue Hampshire

On Sunday I attended a Vets BBQ at the Sweeney VFW post in Manchester, NH to support the re-election of Carol-Shea Porter (D-NH) to the US Congress from the first district. An overflow crowd, they even ran out of hamburgers, greeted CSP and her guest in NH that day, Congressman Chet Edwards (D-TX) from the 17th district which includes the village of Crawford which is currently missing the idiot that is currently and woefully living in the White House, most woefully.

The two have become fast friends in DC as Congressman Edwards, Carol’s new BFF down there, is the chairman of the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Military Construction and VA (MILCON/VA). He came to NH to see what’s up first hand. He was impressed with the turnout at the event, so was I.

Carol’s remarks were brief and focused on the outrage that NH is currently the only state in America that does not have a full service VA hospital. Follow me below the fold for all the remarks because as Carol told us all in attendance: “There is no excuse.”

Bill Duncan’s first hand account including a lot more specifics about Carol and Edwards’s efforts in the state can be seen here: Veterans Turn Out for Carol Shea-Porter.

Edwards begins his introduction of Carol with a great anecdote which contains a really harsh and stark truth about the business of politics, bonus points to the Congressman. As I said earlier many people showed up for the BBQ. That surprised me especially on such a beautiful day when there have been many, many wash-out weekends this summer. I also noticed that it wasn’t the typical VFW crowd you would expect either. People were there from a variety of age groups, some brought their kids and many were younger. We even had an RFK grandson in attendance.

Video: Carol Shea-Porter in Manchester (8:03)

Edwards:

And I want to just say that one person can make a difference. I carry a very heavy burden on my life, I want you to know that when I was 26 years old, I had the gall to run against a former economics professor of mine for Congress …

I lost by 115 votes to a guy named Phil Gramm. I don’t want you to have the burden that I’ve felt since 1978. At least my credibility ought to be good because everything I said about him turned out to be true … My point is this, if I had had a meeting like this on a Sunday afternoon like this and this many people had gotten one extra person to go to the polls Phil Gramm ladder never would have become law.

No argument there, Congressman Edwards. There is certainly an urgency in every race from Obama on down in this cycle, but the down ballot races that don’t get the attention they deserve may very well be close all across the country. In 2006, Carol was swept into office against incumbent Jeb Bradley on the crest of a throw the bums out mentality. But this year Democrats all over the map have to hold those seats and they have to hold these seats on the record. It’s only been a couple of years and the record is not as strong and clear as it could be with Bush and the Senate filibuster blocking just about everything that Democrats were sent to Washington to do. It’s not going to be a tidal wave in this district this time around. And that could be true all over the country.

Carol then took to the mic:

When I first got to DC you know I realized that the Veteran’s Hospital has been closed for years now as a full service hospital. Nobody did anything about, why not? What do I have to do to bring it back? So I took a look down the list and said, “who do I have to talk to?” And I found Chet. And I ran up to Chet and said, “Chet, you are my new best friend.” He’s your best friend too, because he works very, very hard for Veterans.

He’s worked with me, he’s come to see what we’re talking about. We’ve met with the veterans and he’s going to carry that story back to Washington.

There’s just no excuse for not having either a full service hospital or equivalent care in your own community. (applause)

There’s also no excuse that our Congressmen and Senators knew this and stayed silent. There’s just no excuse…

If you signed up to serve your country from NH why shouldn’t you receive the same benefits as someone from Massachusetts? Or Connecticut? Or from Iowa? What wrong with us? We deserve the same treatment. (applause)

Carol tells us that it isn’t solely nobility that motivates her to act like a “squeaky wheel” on this issue in DC. No, she’s got “a dog in this fight too,” as a former military spouse she is directly affected by this outrage and judging from the remarks on Sunday Carol is personally invested in the well being of veterans around the state and in her district.

Far beyond the hot-button issue of the VA and health care in NH Carol talks about why this fight is so important to all the citizens of this country.

I checked with my husband and when he signed his papers, he didn’t check whether he was a republican or a Democrat. He was an American going to serve his country.

So we cannot discriminate and we cannot allow one party to hold back on treatment, opportunity and honoring commitments to the veterans. We have to serve each other.

Carol brings home the point that commitments made long ago effect the nation as a whole today. As a member of the Armed Services committee in the Congress she knows that America faces plenty of threats all over the globe today. She tells us that the new generation coming up judges the quality of care against the desire to serve. And I really agree with that statement.

We don’t rely on a draft to staff our armed forces today. We rely on a professional, volunteer army to meet our needs. After 8 years of George Bush, the recent Walter Reed scandal, a generation of cutbacks in services across the boards and the heightened state of readiness required to meet our current needs in America today, no issue is more symbolic of our government’s intention to honor those commitments made to every one that served than veteran’s health care and the sorry state of the VA in NH today.

We need them … We need people to sign-up for the Armed services. We need them to look at how we treat our veterans and say, “Yes. I trust America that should I be wounded or should I be killed they’ll take care of my family and they will take care of me. They won’t break that sacred promise.”

And so the young are looking to see what we do right now and if we truly honor our commitments.

pictured are Carol and Sheila Jackson Lee (D-TX) in Kuwait

The answer here from me is: Yes we do. We must … Keep up the good work and we will make sure that veterans today and tomorrow have what we promised them yesterday. Thank you very much.

Carol then saved the best for last after wishing Mike Lopez a Happy Birthday and thanking Jim Craig (“one class act”) for emceeing the event. When talking about the importance of sending Bob Bruce to the governor’s counsel she says:

We have someone who is running for executive counsel, Bob Bruce, who also comes from the people. And so I appreciate you looking at his record and his concern for all of us. His slogan goes along the line of “send your neighbor.” And that’s the best thing you could do. Send one of us. Fill all of these positions with somebody that knows your story because we are one of you.

You know my slogan: Running for the rest of us. Thank you for the honor of serving you in Washington. And I would ask that you send Democrats up and down the ticket because it’s not the fact that we’re Democrats. It’s that we’re holding the American agenda right now. We’re the party that has come together to say that we have to save the middle-class and fix the country … Democrats and other people will be very well served by Democrats in Washington and in NH.

The lighting sucked at the VFW so my apologies for the poor quality of the video and pics in this diary, but the audio is clear as a bell and the remarks were pretty sweet. I hope you enjoyed the show.

So where is the urgency to support a great candidate like Carol Shea-Porter in her re-election bid this year? Well may you ask.

While the Obama race is vital to the future of the country so too are the down ballot races that will determine the climate and ultimately the success President Obama can expect once he gets sworn into office. NH-01 has been targeted as a Republican pick-up by Freedom Watch who I predict will be the new swift-boaters in this cycle. They’ve already been running ads smearing Carol’s position on offshore oil drilling and Brian Larsen from PoliticsNH.com told me on Sunday that they’ve just announced their third ad buy in the state targeting both Carol and Paul Hodes. By no means is Carol’s re-election to the Congress going to be a slam dunk and in preparation for my “re-emersion” into NH politics I came across a very disturbing website that I think holds the playbook for the ugliness that we may see unfold in NH’s first district in the coming weeks.

Democrats are far outstripping Republican fundraising efforts from the top to bottom all over the country with some exceptions and nowhere is a disturbing trend more apparent than in down ballot races like Carol’s.

“There’s a good chance 527 groups will dominate Republican rescue efforts in congressional races this year,” said David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report.”

“It’s clear the NRCC is outsourcing their attacks to right-wing smear organizations. We have been anticipating this activity for months and have been preparing our candidates with the tools they need to respond effectively,” said DCCC spokesman Doug Thornell.

source

With the Democrats holding a money advantage, the GOP’s best hope may be that independent outside groups like Freedom’s Watch throw a lot of money into congressional races. As of now, however, the Democrats look to pick up significant numbers of additional seats.

source

And just in time I found a website called The Real CSP, link withheld for obvious reasons. I don’t know who or what really is behind this scum that passes for political education but let’s just look at one egregious example. Under the heading “Deserting out Troops” the website claims: “Shea-Porter put partisan politics above the needs of troops and commanders on the ground by voting for a Democrat-sponsored bill mandating extension of troop deployments overseas. (House Roll Call 795)“

But if you look at govtracks.us for HR 3159 you’ll see a summary from Project Vote Smart and that CSP was a co-sponsor of the bill that provides the following:

• Mandates that before a member of the regular armed forces be redeployed to Iraq, he or she must be given a period of rest at least as long as the duration of his or her most recent deployment [Sec. 2 (a)].
• Mandates that before a member of the armed forces reserve be redeployed to Iraq, he or she must be given a period of rest at least three times as long as the duration of his or her most recent deployment [Sec. 2 (b)].
• Exempts special operations forces and forces used to facilitate deployments [Sec. 2 (c)].
• Allows the President to waive the rest period requirements in order to meet a threat to national security if the President certifies the necessity of the deployment to Congress within 30 days [Sec. 2 (d)].
• Allows the rest requirement to be waived for members of the Armed Forces who voluntarily request mobilization [Sec. 2 (e)].

So she votes for passage of the HR 3159 on the next vote Roll Call 796, unlike 190 Republicans in the Congress, and the website/smear campaign would lead you to believe that she does not support the bill, which she voted for and co-sponsored. Ya know, that kind of “deserting the troops” Unreal. All rightey, looks like we’ve got our work cut out for us.

DownwithTyrrany also reports that Wal-Mart is targeting Carol in her race.

But you’re not going to find Carol Shea-Porter on the lists of congressmembers who take special interests money and then vote for them instead of for her constituents. Her predecessor, Jeb Bradley, always did– and now those same big special interests are back shoveling money into his campaign, trying to help him reclaim his old– their old– seat. Carol’s voting record is clear as a bell; she votes in the interests of her constituents. Period. She doesn’t have millions of dollars in corporate money hanging over her head as an incentive– or a threat– to vote for special deals for corporations.

This election in NH’s first is not going to be any kind of pretty. Without credible media voices debunking these kinds of scurrilous charges, attack ads and misleading ad campaigns to put in kindly can sway voters. Mud sticks, especially if you throw enough of it.

We hold the American agenda in this election and Carol holds it everyday for the people of NH’s first. Get out there to support a great public servant and in so doing we’ll be supporting each other.

To donate to Carol’s re-election campaign click here, but don’t bother if you’re a DC lobbyist – she doesn’t take your money.

Also consider volunteering or to sign-up for the excellent news letter try the main website. The intro video is set for auto-play.

It’s going to get tres not jolie out there before this one is over, kids. So get out there. She needs you now. We need each other now – more than ever.

This diary is another in the continuing guerrilla vlogger series. I’m not associated with the campaign in any way shape or form and most importantly I speak only for myself when blogging. I do all these vlogs as a citizen journalist, as in I’m not paid. I do everything with an ordinary mini-DV, a PC, Movie Maker and free tools available on the web. Thanks for reading.

Over at the Lincoln Journal-Star, Don Walton buries this nugget in his latest column:

New 2nd District Democratic poll shows Barack Obama and John McCain virtually even in measurements of approval and disapproval.

The figures for Bush tip substantially toward disapproval.

That seems to point toward an effort to tie McCain securely to Bush as Obama seeks a presidential electoral vote in the metropolitan Omaha congressional district.

Jim Esch trailed Lee Terry by a single digit in the poll. (Emphasis added)

Unfortunately, the who, what, and when of this poll is still unknown, so take it with a grain of salt until we can find out more about this phantom poll.

SSP currently rates this race as Likely Republican.

South Carolina GOP Rep. Joe Wilson must love his Democratic opponent, Iraq vet Rob Miller.

Wilson apparently loves Miller so much, that he posted one of Miller’s press releases attacking him for steadfastly supporting George Bush’s “failed” education policies.

The release is still available on Wilson’s campaign web site (posted under Wilson’s own name), and ends with a ringing endorsement of his Democratic challenger:

Today, Wilson’s Democratic challenger Rob Miller made the following statement about the first day of Wilson’s tour for the status quo and “No Child Left Behind”:

“We need change in Washington, not more of the same. Congressman Wilson’s bus tour is all about championing the way Washington does business. Congressman Wilson’s support for ‘No Child Left Behind’ is just wrong. It’s an unfunded federal mandate that forces teachers to teach for the test instead of truly educating our children. It’s about time Washington stop telling local communities how to educate our children.

I’m sure that Mr. Miller very much appreciates Joe Wilson’s kindly assist in disseminating this press release as widely as possible.

(Hat-tip to reader LH for the scoop.)

Rasmussen (8/14, likely voters incl. leaners, 7/17 in parens):

Jim Martin (D): 44 (40)

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 50 (51)

(MoE: ±4%)

Wow. It looks like the DSCC’s recent internal poll of this race showing Martin trailing by 36-42 may not have been an outlier, after all.

Excellent numbers. Could Georgia be one of the sleeper Senate races of 2008?

In light of Jim Martin’s primary win and these most recent numbers, SSP is upgrading its rating of this race from “Safe Repubican” to “Likely Republican“.

Campaign Receiving Important Endorsements:

As we move into the fall campaign season, the McCracken for Congress campaign is receiving several important endorsements.   Earlier this month we were honored to receive the endorsement from the Pennsylvania AFL-CIO.   This is a key endorsement from an organization that is a leader in supporting the rights of the working people, not only in the 5th district, but in Pennsylvania and across the nation.

This week, we were notified by the NEA Fund for Children and Public Education, the political action committee of the National Education Association, of their decision to recommend the election of Mark B. McCracken to the U.S. House of Representatives, Congressional District 05 in Pennsylvania.   This endorsement carries a special meaning to me in light of my prior experience as a former member of a public school board.   I truly believe if our local public school systems receive the proper support from our federal government, we can have the finest education system in the world.   When I speak of support, I’m not only talking adequate financial support, I also believe that elected leaders at the federal, state and local level should be strong vocal advocates for our public schools.  

Throughout this campaign, I’ve stressed the need for a federal education policy that includes adequate funding while letting standards and policies to officials at the state and local levels.  As a person with 10 years experience serving on a local school board, I realize that parents, administrators, teachers and local leaders know what is best for their children.  Unnecessary mandates from the federal government in Washington only complicate matters.

Updates Coming to McCracken for Congress Webpage:

Later this week we will be unveiling some changes and updates to the McCracken for Congress webpage — www.mccrackenforcongress.com.  

The big change will be with the issues section.  As we’ve traveled throughout the 5th district meeting with people and discussing the issues and problems, we can now better define what the important issues are on the minds of the citizens in the district.  From my position as the candidate, I’ve spent the last 8 months listening and learning from the people that I hope to represent in the United States Congress.  While there are many of the issues I was already aware of as a county commissioner, there were issues I had to learn more about from the citizens of the 5th district.  

As we move into the next phase of the campaign, I want to give voters a better outline of the issues and problems they have discussed with me and provide them with specific ideas and solutions they can consider before making their decision on November 4th.

Keeping Up a Hectic Pace:

We were very busy again this week traveling throughout the 5th district meeting people and listening to their concerns.  

On Monday we spent the evening working in the Democratic booth at the McKean County Fair.  Tuesday took us to State College for meetings with campaign supporters.  Also on Tuesday, Victor Ordonez represented the campaign at an event near St. Marys with the Elk County Farm Bureau.  

Thursday was an important day in Clearfield County featuring a visit by Gov. Ed Rendell who announced several million dollars in funding for important projects in Clearfield County.   Funding announcements were made for the expansion of Paris Company in DuBois creating 40 new jobs, expansion of the Clearfield YMCA, a river walk project in Clearfield Borough and the state’s investment to rebuild several deficient bridges in Clearfield County.  

On Thursday evening the campaign headed to Janesville in southeastern Clearfield County to appear at the annual Bud George Day picnic.  It was a great honor be on the speaking program with Gov. Rendell, State Rep. Bud George, Auditor General Jack Wagner, candidate for Attorney General John Morganelli, candidate for Treasurer Rob McCord and fellow congressional candidate from the 9th district Tony Barr.  

On Friday, we were in the DuBois area for a fundraiser organized by Henry and Molly Guthrie.  We had a nice turnout for the event with special guests State Rep. Scott Conklin and State Rep. Dan Surra on hand.  

Kelly and I want to thank Henry and Molly for organizing the event and also thank the people who did the work getting the site ready and cooking the food.   We closed out the week on Saturday with a trip to Emporium for a car show and downtown event sponsored by the Emporium Chamber of Commerce.  Later, it was on to Smethport for another appearance at the McKean County Fair.

Plans for the Coming Week:

We’ll be spending quite a bit of time in Centre County this week.  

Tuesday we will be joining members of the Centre County Democratic Committee to attend Gov. Rendell’s appearance at the CBICC luncheon.  Wednesday we will be traveling to Venango county for several meetings in the morning and then back to Centre County later in the day to attend the Penn Ag Democratic Picnic held in conjunction with Ag Progress Days.  Friday we will be in attendance for the opening of the Democratic Campaign Headquarters in Clinton County.   Finally, on Saturday, we will start out a busy day at the Centre County Democratic breakfast followed by “Mark McCracken Day” in the Democratic booth at the Grange Fair in Centre Hall.  

I look forward to meeting with everyone at the Grange Fair on Saturday.

FINAL THOUGHT — Momentum is Building:

Right after winning the primary election in April, I made a statement when asked by a reporter “Mr. McCracken, can you actually win this race?”  My response was “We can and we will” which I posted on our campaign blog site.  I was encouraged on Monday evening when speaking with a gentleman at the McKean County Fair who made reference to my response.  He was asking me how the campaign was going and I gave him a very positive report about the progress we are making.   What was so encouraging was when he told me — “Mark, remember what you said on your blog — We can and we will…? Just keep up the hard work and you can and you will win the seat.”

We’ll see you on the campaign trail and with your help, we can and we will win this race!

Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate for Congress

Benenson Strategy Group for the DSCC and Andrew Rice (8/12-14, likely voters, June in parens):

Andrew Rice (D): 41 (33)

Jim Inhofe (R-inc): 50 (53)

(MoE: ±4%)

Some nice movement for Rice, whose primary victory and recent statewide ad buys have apparently helped him close the gap to nine points. The best sign for Rice continues to be the interest of the DSCC, which has already sent field staff to Oklahoma, and helped supply Rice’s campaign with some top shelf talent.

Jay Love must be fuming. As Danny over at Doc’s Political Parlor reports, the Republican mayor of Dothan, the heavily conservative population anchor of the Wiregrass portion of the southeastern corner of the district, has given his endorsement to Democrat Bobby Bright:

Republican Dothan Mayor Pat Thomas crossed the aisle today to endorse Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright’s Democratic bid for the 2nd Congressional District seat. Thomas is the John McCain campaign’s Mayoral Chair for the state of Alabama, has served on the Republican Executive Committee of Houston County, and says that he has never voted for a Democrat on a national level. Thomas was also a member of the Wiregrass’s “unofficial Congressional Selection Committee” that united early behind the candidacy of Republican state Sen. Harri Anne Smith in an effort to ensure that the next Representative from AL-02 was from the Wiregrass.

Political Parlor has the full text of the endorsement. At a population of 85,000 and the base of state Sen. Harri Anne Smith, whom Love defeated in a nasty primary, Bright’s performance in Dothan will be crucial for his chances of victory this November. This is huge.

The GOP has long faced tough odds in the battle of the House. In an election year that promises to be just as Democratic-leaning than 2006, many vulnerable Republican incumbents chose to retire rather than wage a tough battle. Few high-profile Republicans agreed to jump in the races thus left open or to challenge the Democratic freshmen incumbents that were supposedly so vulnerable. And the fundraising disparity between the DCCC and NRCC was obvious from the first days of financial reports of the 2008 cycle.

The road has not been getting any easier for Republicans. While no new incumbent retired and while GOP chances are improving in high-profile districts (NH-01, LA-06 and PA-11), Democrats are continuing to expand the map. 13 GOP-held seats have been moved to a more vulnerable column since the June ratings – compared to only 2 Dem-held districts. There is now a total of 56 GOP-held seats on this list versus 34 Dem-held seats.

It is unlikely that future cycles would be this skewed towards Democrats, and the DCCC is eager to strike at the core of the GOP base, for it might not have another shot at them for a very long time. In this context, the importance of the financial disparity between the DCCC and the NRCC cannot be overstated: Money counts for more in House races than in Senate and presidential contests, and the DCCC’s ability to flex its financial muscle is already evident. Over the past month, the Democratic committee reserved a total of $53 million of air time in 51 districts, 34 of which are currently held by the GOP. That’s a very large playing field to invest in.

This money is not an actual buy – only a reservation – and the committee can pull the plug on any of this spending. In fact, it is likely that the millions the DCCC has reserved in seats like NY-13 , IL-14 and NY-25 will not even be spent – as these already look like probable Democratic victories – and that money could be relocated to other races. And consider that the $53 million the DCCC has reserved in the fall is within the $58 million of cash on hand it had at the end of June. If the DCCC keeps up its fundraising of $10 million/month, it could very well follow through on all the money it has already reserved (which would by itself be a huge money bomb) and still have as much as $40 million to spend!

Republicans, on the other hand, will face painful choices. In many conservative districts which lean Republican but in which the Democrats are injecting millions, the GOP candidates will be on their own, fighting the blue wave swamped under Democratic spending. Indeed, if the NRCC spends some of its small war chest on districts like FL-18, LA-07 and NM-02, what money will they have left to help their candidates in more obviously competitive districts – NM-01, KS-02, NY-26 or MO-06?

If the situation becomes bad enough that the GOP has to build a firewall in its third-tier of races (places like FL-18 and ID-01), the first and second-tier might find itself entirely submerged and Democrats might post huge gains. If the country’s mood balances itself a little and if John McCain manages to limit the electorate’s anti-Republican behavior, the third-tier could find itself much safer than it is now – and the GOP might be able to spend its resources on the first and second-tier, significantly limiting its losses.

So will we have a repeat of 2006, with Republicans powerless to stop the blue tsunami though they will probably score some gains of their own this time? Or a district-by-district battle that will still be fought with a clear Democratic edge? That is the key question of the upcoming months, and the answer will have much to do with the dynamics of the presidential race.

As always, I have written full descriptions of seats that have made news since early June. I indicated upgraded or downgraded next to the seats that saw their ratings change to indicate whether they became more vulnerable or less vulnerable for the incumbent party. Here is the quick run-down:

• Less vulnerable Democratic seats: IL-08, IN-07, PA-07, OR-05
• Less vulnerable Republican seats: CA-52, IL-06, MN-06

• More vulnerable Democratic seats: LA-06, PA-11
• More vulnerable Republican seats: AL-02, AL-03, FL-18, FL-25, LA-07, NV-02, NV-03, NY-29, PA-03, VA-05, VA-10, VA-11, WV-02

Outlook: Democrats pick-up 13-22 seats. My current prediction is a net pick-up of 17, for a 253-182 Democratic majority.

History of House ratings:

• June: The field continues to shift towards Democrats, particularly in New York
• February: As many more races get competitive, Democrats keep clear edge
• November: How many more Republican retirements?
• October: Democrats feel better as GOP faces worrisome retirements
• September: Democrats poised to keep majority

Republican seats, Likely take-over (3)

• NY-13 (open): In my previous ratings, I wrote that “in no other seat did Republican chances collapse as much and as quickly as in this Staten Island seat.” Little did I know how much further the GOP’s chances would collapse. Shortly after, the candidate Republicans had settled on passed away mid-June, leaving the GOP with no candidate once more. Followed a stunning series of Staten Island Republicans refusing to take on the role as the party’s sacrificial lamb and an increasingly acrimonious split between the Staten Island GOP and the Conservative Party. They each ended up settling on their own candidate, former state Rep. Robert Staniere for the GOP and retired banker Paul Atanasio for conservatives. That dual candidacy all but guarantees that Democratic candidate Mike McMahon will win in November – but consider that the situation could have gotten worse for the GOP: at some point in June, there was some talk of their endorsing McMahon!
• NY-25 (open)
• VA-11 (open, upgraded polls): Gerry Connolly, the chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors, won a low turnout Democratic primary on July 11th and will now face Republican businessman  Keith Fimian, whose main advantage is that he can self-fund a race. In this blue-leaning district in increasingly Democratic Northern Virginia, Connolly is heavily favored and should benefit from the Obama’s campaign’s  focus on NoVa.  An internal poll released by the Connolly campaign shows the Democrat leading by 31%.

Republican seats, Lean take-over (4)

• AK-AL (Rep. Young, polls): The Republican primary is being held on August 26th, and Rep. Don Young is in great danger against Lieutenant Governor Parnell. The Club for Growth is spending heavily on Parnell’s behalf, and Ted Stevens’ indictment could not have come at a worst time for  Young as it put the focus on the state GOP’s corruption scandals. Sarah Palin endorsed Parnell recently, calling him “honest” and “conservative” – a way to highlight the two charges Young faces (overspending and ethics). If Young somehow survives the primary, the race could move to the likely take-over column; if Parnell becomes his party’s nominee, Democrats will have a tougher time and the race will become a toss-up. The latest poll has Parnell narrowly ahead of Berkowitz but Young trailing widely.
• AZ-01 (Open)
• IL-11 (Open)
• NJ-03 (Open): Not only are Democrats already favored to pick-up this district, but the DCCC decision to reserve $1.7 million worth of air time in the district should be all state Senator John Adler needs to clinch victory. Sure, the media market is expensive, and the DCCC does not have to spend that money, but when the moment comes for the NRCC to decide which races it will spend its small money on, it is unlikely NJ-03 will make the cut.

Democratic seats, Lean take-over (3)

• FL-16 (Rep. Mahoney)
• LA-06 (Rep. Cazayoux, upgraded): Following his special election victory in May, Don Cazayoux was favored to win re-election. But two developments have complicated things for Democrats here. First, Democratic state Rep. Michael Jackson, who was defeated in the Dem primary, decided to run as an independent. He is African-American and represents Baton Rouge, the part of the district in which Cazayoux needs to build huge margins. Second, Woody Jenkins, the GOP nominee in the special election, decided not to run in the special election. Jenkins was a tarnished candidate whose controversial profile doomed Republican chances. The general election will now feature two Democrats and a Republican whose name will not be Jenkins. That could be enough for Bill Cassidy to win the seat back for the GOP.
• TX-22 (Rep. Lampson)

Republican seats, Toss-up (15)

• AL-02 (Open, upgraded, polls): As expected, Democrats nominated Bobby Bright, the   conservative  mayor of Montgomery who was affiliated to neither party before he jumped in this race. The Republican candidate is state Senator Jay Love, who survived a contentious primary. This district is so overwhelmingly Republican that it should be impossible for a Democrat to win, but that Bright chose to run as a Democrat suggests otherwise. After all, Bright could just as easily filed as a Republican – and was courted by the NRCC. Three polls of these race were released in the space of 10 days, suggesting that Bright might have an edge: Love had a narrow 2% lead in his campaign’s internal poll, but Bright’s internal that showed him leading by 10% was confirmed by an independent poll that found the same margin.
• CO-4 (Rep. Musgrave): In 04 and 06, independent groups attacked Musgrave with some memorable advertisements (most famously this 2004 ad of a Musgrave impersonator stealing from a soldier’s pocket). Now, it looks like Musgrave will be a target of outside groups yet again, with Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund already spending $175,000 on this ad focused on energy issues. The DCCC has already reserved $600,000 worth of advertisement in this district, not a huge amount considering that the Denver market is not cheap, but a strong start that should boost Betsy Markey’s efforts.
• CT-4 (Rep. Shays)
• IL-10 (Rep. Kirk)
• MN-03 (Open)
• NC-8 (Rep. Hayes, polls)
• NJ-07 (Open)
• NM-01 (Open, polls): When Heather Wilson announced she would not run for re-election, most Democrats expected this seat to be a relatively easy pick-up. But Darren White is one of the only strong recruitment coups of the NRCC this cycle, and it seems like he will at least succeed at keeping the race close. The two campaigns exchanged dueling internal polls in July showing their own candidate in the lead.
• NV-03 (Rep. Porter, <span style=”font-weight:bold;”>upgraded</span&gt): Rep. Porter barely survived his 2006 re-election race against a political newcomer and his district has gotten much more Democratic since then. Highly-touted Democratic candidate Robert Daskas dropped out in April, leading to Senate Minority Leader and former gubernatorial candidate Dona Titus to join the race. Titus is a high-profile candidate who guarantees the race remains in the spotlight. Nevada Democrats are especially interested in defeating Porter this year, as he would be one of the toughest challengers for Senator Harry Reid in 2010. An internal poll released by the Titus campaign showed the Democrat narrowly ahead.
• NY-26 (Open): We will know more about this race after the primaries decide which Democrat will move on to the general election: Iraq War veteran J<span>on Power or controversial self-funder Jack Davis, who is injecting millions of his own money in the race after getting the Supreme Court to struck down the Millionaire’s amendment?</span&gt
• NY-29 (Rep. Kuhl, <span style=”font-weight:bold;”>upgraded</span&gt): The DCCC has reserved $2.7 million in the upstate New York media market, a sum that can be spent on this race, as well as NY-25 and NY-26. It is unlikely that Maffei will need that much money in NY-25, meaning that Eric Massa will receive a prodigious amount of money from the national party. Considering the state of disarray New York Republicans are in, that could be enough for Democrats to complete the job they started in 2006, when Kuhl survived by 2%. For now, the election is being waged on energy issues, with Massa embracing the GOP rhetoric to demand a special session on the issue.
• OH-01 (Rep. Chabot): Two factors that will determine this race is whether Barack Obama’s candidacy succeeds in boosting black turnout, and how much the GOP will bleed support in the traditionally Republican suburbs. An internal poll released in July by the Chabot campaign showed him leading 50% to 37%.
• OH-15 (Open): This seat is a disappointment for Democrats. When Rep. Pryce announced she would retire back in 2007, Dems felt really good about the chances of Mary Jo Kilroy. But GOP scored one of its best recruitment coups with state Senator Steve Stivers. In another year, this race would be a purer toss-up; in 2006, Kilroy remains slightly favored but  OH-015 is far from the clear pick-up opportunity it was a few months back. A SUSA poll released in August showed Kilroy ahead by 3%.
• OH-16 (Open)
• WA-8 (Rep. Reichert, polls): Darcy Burner had a tough summer, as her house entirely burned down in the beginning of July, taking her off the campaign trail for a while. Yet, Burner  is one of the best-funded House challengers: she raised more in the second quarter and she has more cash-on-hand than her opponent, GOP incumbent Rep. Reichert. The race promises to be just as tight as it was in 2006, and we will see whether Burner can ride presidential coattails.
• WY-AL (Open)

Democratic seats, Toss-up (9)

• AL-05 (Open, had forgotten before): We have known that AL-05 would be one of the most endangered Democratic-held seats since the day Rep. Cramer announced he would retire back in March. For some reason, I forgot to include it in my previous ratings – and the seat’s sudden appearance in the toss-up column should not be interpreted as the GOP gaining ground over the past two months. Both parties selected their nominees, state Senator Parker Griffith for Democrats and Wayne Parker for Republicans. This is a very conservative district (Bush got 60% in 2004) and the GOP has to be very frustrated that they are not doing better here – this is the type of red seats they need to claim to have a chance at regaining the House majority any time soon.
• CA-11 (Rep. McNerney)
• GA-8 (Rep. Marshall)
• IN-09 (Rep. Hill, polls)
• KS-02 (Rep. Boyda, polls): In early August, state Treasurer Lynn Jenkins (who represents the moderate wing of the state’s GOP) narrowly defeated conservative, who was defeated in 2006. She will now take on Democratic Rep. Nancy Boyda, who is one of the most endangered Democrats of the cycle. It is difficult to assess the race until we know how deep the wounds from the GOP primary: how will the district’s more conservative voters react to Jenkins’s general election candidacy? The Kansas GOP, after all, has been split in ideological feuds for years. Boyda, meanwhile, is planning a repeat of her 2006 grassroots campaign and has convinced the DCCC to not spend any money on her re-election race, leaving her all alone to fight her opponent.
• NH-01 (Rep. Shea-Porter, polls): Defeating Carol Shea-Porter has been one of the GOP’s top priorities ever since the Democrat posted the biggest upset of Election Night 2006. Rep. Bradley is running for his own seat – but he first has to defeat John Stephen in what should be a crucial primary. The New Hampshire Union Leader has endorsed Stephen, in what could be a crucial show of support for the more conservative Republican. A recent UNH poll showed that Shea-Porter would be in great danger against both GOPers, though she would have more breathing room against Stephen.
• PA-4 (Rep. Altmire)
• PA-10 (Rep. Carney)
• PA-11 (Rep. Paul Kanjorski, upgraded): Kanjorski is a long-term Democratic incumbent who is facing a more difficult re-election race than many of the freshmen of the 2006 class. That is due both to his opponent, Lou Barletta, who has become a high-profile Republican due to his harsh stance on immigration, and to the fact that he has neglected to build a strong local organization due to the fact that he has not faced a tough election. Barletta has released two internal polls showing him narrowly ahead, and while Democrats have not made their own polls public there is no doubt the DCCC is very worried: they have already spent a total of $260,000 on this district and are running ads on Kanjorski’s behalf.

Republican seats, Lean retention (17)

• CA-04 (Open)
• FL-13 (Rep. Buchanan): In this rematch of the bitterly disputed 2006 election (in which Vern Buchanan scored a controversial 369 vote victory), both candidates are already on air, setting the tone for what is sure to be a bitter and emotional few months.
• FL-21 (Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart): See the description of FL-25 (below) for more context, as the FL-21 race similarly pits two Cuban-Americans and a battle on Miami airwaves. A recent poll had the Republican incumbent leading by only 4% against Martinez.
• FL-24 (Rep. Feeney)
• FL-25 (Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, upgraded): The battle for Southern Florida is reaching fever pitch here, with Diaz-Balart facing fellow Cuban-American Joe Garcia. The Diaz-Balarts might not be used to highly competitive elections, but the DCCC’s decision to reserve $1.4 million worth of air time this fall in the Miami market (the money will be spent on FL-18, FL-21, and FL-25) guarantees that this area will be ground zero of the House battle – and one that will test whether the allegiance of Cuban-Americans is at all shifting away from the GOP. A poll released in July had Garcia trailing by 5%.
• IL-18 (Open)
• KY-02 (Open)
• LA-04 (Open): This is not the type of district in which Democrats are expected to compete (how many times have I used those words in these house ratings?) but the retirement of Rep. McCrery has given Democrats an opening they are ready to exploit. The Democratic candidate, Paul Carmouche, is the DA of the parish in which the district is located, while the GOP will have to wait for its crowded primary to be settled. We will have to wait to get a better idea of the general election match-up, but it is obvious that Democrats are hopeful: Carmouche released an internal poll finding him ahead of all his potential opponents, and even if that advantage comes from a better name recognition will Republican candidates have the funds to address that in the three months ahead? The DCCC has reserved more than $700,000 worth of ad time for the fall, a large buy in this relatively cheap district.
• MI-07 (Rep. Walberg, polls): Conflicting internal polls released by the Walberg and Schauer campaigns showed the GOP incumbent leading by 16% and by 3% – but in both cases under 50%. But Mark Schauer is out-raising his Republican opponent, and the DCCC has already budgeted a substantial investment this fall.
• MI-09 (Rep. Knollenberg)
• MO-06 (Rep. Graves, polls)
• MO-09 (Open): Both parties settled on their nominees in early August. Republicans nominated Blaine Luetkemeyer, while Democrats chose their more liberal option, Judy Baker. The Democrat’s base is in the district’s urban centers, so she will have to run up the margins there while holding on in its rural parts. One advantage Republicans will have: current GOP Rep. Kenny Hulshof will be running statewide in the gubernatorial race, potentially allowing Luetkemeyer to ride his coattails.
• NM-02 (Open)
• OH-02 (Rep. Schmidt)
• PA-03 (Rep. English, upgraded): In a close district at the presidential level, Rep. English is favored but Democrats remember that he only got 54% in 2006 despite the opposition barely contesting the race. This year, Democrats have nominated a pro-lifer, Kathy Dahlkemper, who released an internal poll showing her ahead by 1%! That’s not enough to get Republicans panicked, but neither English nor the RNCC have released a poll to counter Dahlkemper’s…
• VA-02 (Rep. Drake)
• WV-02 (Rep. Capito, upgraded): In a district that has become Republican over the past decade, Shelley Capito has looked increasingly solid over her re-election races. But as the only GOP office-holder in what remains a Democratic state at the local level, she is a perennial target for Democrats. The party is excited by the candidacy of Anne Barth – and while Emily’s List did not have a great track record in 2006 and over the past few months, their endorsement should at least guarantee that Barth remains well-funded.

Democratic seats, Lean retention (13)

• AZ-05 (Rep. Mitchell)
• AZ-08 (Rep. Giffords, polls)
• CT-05 (Rep. Murphy)
• GA-12 (Rep. Barrow)
• IL-08 (Rep. Bean, downgraded): In a neutral year, Melissa Bean is sure to be one of her party’s most vulnerable incumbents. But in a Democratic year and in the state of Barack Obama, Bean should have some breathing room. She also knows that she will always be targeted by the GOP and she fundraises and organizes accordingly. Her opponent <span>Steve Greenberg is highly-touted by the GOP, but he will need to quicken his fundraising pace and find new attack angles to come out on top.
• KS-03 (Rep. Moore)
• KY-03 (Rep. Yarmuth, polls): Anne Northup is attempting to come back to Congress after a failed gubernatorial run in 2007. In a district that leans ever so slightly Democratic at the presidential level, Northup needs to run a flawless campaign but for now her camp seems to be in disarray after a staff shake-up that has left her without a campaign manager.
• MS-01 (Rep. Childers)
• NY-19 (Rep. Hall)
• NY-20 (Rep. Gillbrand)
• MN-1 (Rep. Walz)
• OR-05 (Open, downgraded): Along with AL-05, this is one of only two Democratic-held open seats that is competitive. But GOP prospects are plummeting because of the candidacy of Mike Erickson. Back in may, Erickson was viciously attacked by his primary opponent Kevin Manni for having paid his girlfriend’s abortion years ago. Right to Life immediately blasted Erickson, but all that drama unfolded too late to damage Erickson in a state in which most voters sent their ballot in early via mail. Erickson prevailed in the primary. If there was any doubt then that the abortion story would damage his chances, the story soon got worse for Erickson: the woman whose abortion Erickson allegedly paid forconfirmed the story to to the  Oregonian and blasted Erickson’s pro-life record. conservative activists.
• WI-8 (Rep. Kagen, polls)

Republican seats, likely retention (17)

• AL-03 (open, upgraded): This is a long-shot race for Democrats for sure, but the DCCC appears to have taken an interest in Alabama races – and the local press has taken notice. Democratic nominee Joshua Segall will be helped by the fact that AL-02 and AL-05 are both featuring contested races, in the hope that a mention of his own contest will be inserted in other House stories.
• FL-8 (Rep. Keller)
• FL-15 (open)
• FL-18 (Rep. Ros-Lehtinen, upgraded): This is the third race in the Southern Florida battle, and while the Republican incumbent seems safer than in neighboring FL-21 and FL-25, the money the DCCC will spent in the Miami market could just as easily be spent here than in the other races. (We will have to wait and see the size of the investment.) An independent poll of the race had Ros-Lehtinen leading 51% to 38% against Annette Taddeo, a decent margin but certainly not enough to keep the race out of these ratings.
• ID-01 (Rep. Sali): That this district is even on the list is just as stunning this year than it was 2 years ago. But Bill Sali still has a rocky relationship with his state’s GOP and his Democratic opponent Walt Minnick is outraising him – a stunning feat for an Idaho Democrat. And the DCCC has reserved nearly $350,000 of media time for the fall – a small investment for them to make but one that is big by Idaho standards (compared to a buy in the Chicago area, it gets almost twice the amount of time with $1 million less!)
• IL-06 (Rep. Roskam, downgraded): In 2006, IL-06 was the DCCC’s heart-breaker and a source of anger for many party activists who protested the millions the national party wasted in this district at the expense of other races like NC-08. This year, the DCCC found someone else from the military to run, Jill Morgenthaler; she is sure to be even less exciting to local activists than Duckworth was, as she was the Army spokeswoman during the Abu Graib scandal. This is a swing district at the presidential level, and Morgenthaler could be helped by Obama’s presence at the top of the ticket. But a recent internal poll released by Rep. Roskam shows her crushing the Democrat by 30%.
• LA-07 (Rep. Boustany, <span style=”font-weight:bold;”>upgraded</span&gt): Democrats have suddenly taken interest in Louisiana’s House races – including this conservative seat few people expected to see competitive. State Senator Don Cravins entered the race in mid-June and could take advantage of the area’s substantial African-American population. Boustany only picked up the seat for Republicans in 2004, after all, and the DCCC has added Cravins to its Red to Blue list.
• MD-01 (Open)
• MN-06 (Rep. Bachmann, <span style=”font-weight:bold;”>downgraded</span&gt): Of all open seats Democrats were contesting in 2006, MN-06 was particularly disappointing, as very conservative GOPer Michelle Bachmann won by a decent 8%. This year’s Democratic candidate, <span>Elwyn Tinklenberg, should force Bachmann to play defense but he has been significantly outraised and the DCCC might not be as eager to play in the district.
• NV-02 (Rep. Heller, upgraded): This seat should not be expected to be competitive, as Bush got 57% in both 2000 and 2004. But Heller’s first election back in 2006 was surprisingly weak and the Democrat he vanquished, Jill Derby, is back for a rematch. The seat has been added to the DCCC’s Red to Blue program, so Derby could receive some assistance by the national committee. And while Heller starts as the clear favorite, the seat will test how much Nevada’s demographics have evolved in the past decade.
• OH-07 (Open)
• OH-14 (Rep. LaTourette)
• PA-06 (Rep. Gerlach)
• PA-15 (Rep. Dent)
• PA-18 (Rep. Murphy)
• VA-05 (Rep. Goode, upgraded): Democrats are touting Tom Pariello’s chances in this conservative district, and in a sign that this is not all talk the DCCC has added Pariello to its Red to Blue program. But there is no doubt that this remains a long-shot for Democrats. A recent poll conducted by SUSA showed Goode with a 34% lead.
• VA-10 (Rep. Wolf, upgraded): Just like in VA-05, Democrats are making enough noise about VA-10 that the seat ought to at least be added to the list of potentially competitive  districts. Bush won VA-10 with 55% in 2004 – not an unsurmountable Republican lean. The DCCC has added Judy Feder to its Red to Blue list, in what will be a rematch of the 2006 election which Rep. Wolf won by 16%.

Democratic seats, likely retention (9)

• CT-02 (Rep. Courtney)
• IL-14 (Rep. Foster)
• IN-02 (Rep. Donnelly)
• IN-07 (Rep. Carson, downgraded): Andre Carson won a special election this spring against state Rep. Jon Elrod, a Republican who would have done better in another year and if the NRCC had had more money to come to his rescue. Carson already looked like the favorite for the November rematch, but he now is even safer as Elrod announced he would give up on his congressional candidacy and run for re-election instead.
• IN-08 (Rep. Ellsworth)
• NH-02 (Rep. Hodes)
• OH-18 (Rep. Space)
• PA-08 (Rep. Murphy)
• TX-23 (Rep. Rodriguez)

Posted on Campaign Diaries.