Month: September 2008

The DCCC filed $1.37 million worth in media buys in support of Democratic House candidates tonight. Here’s the damage:

Tonight marks the first time that the DCCC has aired ads in AZ-08, FL-16, KY-02, MD-01, and VA-11.

The lone GOP-friendly media buy comes from the bastards at the American Academy of Ophthalmology, which is dropping cash in support of Republican Bill Cassidy (himself an MD) in his race against Don Cazayoux. See you in hell, eye doctors!

But don’t get the impression that this is one-sided affair just because the NRCC is holding its musket fire. Freedom’s Crotch is up with some ad buys of its own smearing Democrats:

• AL-02: $150,000
  

• IL-11: $430,000
  

• NJ-03: $74,000
  

• NJ-07: $500,000

The Crotch is also spending an unspecified amount on NM-01 and NV-03. Ugh.

This was the plan:

Despite those developments, the rumor and speculation continued unabated today, with two top Island politicos saying that the only reason Fossella even considered getting back in the race was because Straniere had previously agreed to step aside if the congressman decided to run again.

“There was this whole big plan,” said one. “Suddenly, Straniere said no.”

In fact, sources said, the late GOP congressional designee Frank Powers also was meant to serve as a “placeholder” candidate should Fossella decide to get back in.

The thinking, they said, was that the Fossella camp would look to launch a re-election bid after the scandal about the child the congressman fathered during an extramarital affair abated.

This is the problem:

“It’s over,” said Straniere, who has battled with some borough Republicans for years. “I am the Republican candidate for Congress. I’m not getting off the line for nobody, no way, no how. I am totally committed to this race. I’m not going to do anything but run for Congress.”

This is Democrat Mike McMahon laughing all the way to the Washington, D.C.

SUSA released another poll on this fascinating governor’s race:

9/23 (682 LVs +/-3.8%) 9/8 in parentheses:

Gregoire 50 (47)

Rossi    48 (48)

So it’s back to where it was just before the primary.  Rossi is still up 53-43 among independents, and the gender gap is small.  They are tied at 48 among men and Gregoire is up 51-47 among women.  I’m starting to think Rossi may have a big barrier at the 48% level that he needs to cross.  Maybe we can be a bit more optimistic on this race.

Bonus result:  Obama leads McCain in the state 54-43.

 

(Proudly cross-posted at C4O)

Last week, we finished surveying the lay of the land out West. This week, we begin to turn our attention to the Midwest. Yes, that’s right. The Midwest looks to be once again a crucial battleground to win both the White House and Congress. And with just six weeks left until election day, we’d like to talk about the state of the races in America’s Heartland.

So would you like to join us?

Let’s begin with Ohio. Ohio may yet again be THE critical swing state this year, as polls show an extremely tight race here. However, the Presidential race isn’t the only exciting contest in The Buckeye State. We also have some great opportunities to win some more Congressional seats as well!

In the Columbus based 15th District, we have a great candidate in Mary Jo Kilroy. She’s currently a Franklin County (Columbus) Commissioner who has a terrific record of accomplishments in bringing Republicans and Democrats together to enact real solutions to the county’s economic, health care, and environmental problems. But while Kilroy offers a message of real change, her Republican opponent only offers more of the same Bush-Cheney-McCain nonsense. Mary Jo Kilroy nearly ousted the Republican incumbent in 2006 (who’s now retiring) and Bush barely squeaked by with 50% of the vote here in 2004, so this district is ripe for the picking in 2008! With the DCCC and EMILY’S List already all in here, our help can really help put Mary Jo Kilroy (and Barack Obama, for that matter!) on top this November.

Another race that the DCCC and other top Democrats are targeting in Ohio is the 16th District. Here, Air Force veteran and current state representative John Boccieri is running to bring some real change for Northeast Ohio. He’s fought for our country, and he now wants to fight for Ohioans… For more and better jobs, affordable health care, and real help in these perilous economic times. Meanwhile, Republican Kurt Schuring… Well, he’s not quite as fond of his possible future constituents. This race is quite winnable for Democrats, and we have a terrific candidate in John Boccieri. If we support him, he will win.

Another state that’s critical for Barack Obama this fall is Michigan. The race here is close, but the renewed focus on the economy does seem to help Obama here. If there’s any state that’s been severely hit by the economic downturn, it’s Michigan.  And hopefully with Obama’s message resonating here, we can also elect more good Democrats to Congress from here.

One great candidate running is Gary Peters from Michigan’s 9th District (Oakland County, Detroit suburbs). Peters is an accomplished state legislator, business owner, and a Navy Veteran who signed up again to serve after 9/11. Unlike the incumbent Republican Joe Knollenberg, Peters wants to get to work to help rebuild Michigan’s economy. But in order to make change happen here, we need to help Gary Peters win.

Michigan and Ohio are two critical swing states for Barack Obama to win this fall. If he wins them both, he’ll likely win the White House. But in addition to the Presidential race, we have critical Congressional races to win as well in these two states. Please don’t forget to help all these wonderful Democrats win by giving what you can here and by volunteering for the campaign if you live in or near any of these districts. With our help, we’ll make victory happen on November 4 in the Midwest and all over the country! 🙂

The campaigns of Democrat Debbie Halvorson and Republican Marty Ozinga both released new internal polls today, and they agree on one key point: Halvorson is ahead.

Public Opinion Strategies for Marty Ozinga (9/17-18, likely voters, August in parens):

Debbie Halvorson (D): 38 (40)

Marty Ozinga (R): 36 (33)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Anzalone-Liszt for Debbie Halvorson (9/14-16, likely voters, May in parens):

Debbie Halvorson (D): 43 (43)

Marty Ozinga (R): 35 (32)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

If there is a point of concern, it’s that Halvorson hasn’t built on her lead despite a whopping $641,000 spent on her behalf and against Ozinga by the DCCC and EMILY’s List in the past couple of months. Both candidates have their own special kind of baggage (Halvorson for the Blagojevich association, Ozinga for his extremely shady business practices and various tax liens), so this could end up being a matter of which candidate emerges less banged-up at the end of the day.

Ozinga’s poll finds that McCain holds a 44-43% lead in IL-11 — that might at first glance seem a bit slanted given Obama’s home state advantage, but keep in mind that Bush beat John Kerry by a 53-46 margin here in 2004.

Oh, and there’s this nugget from NRCC Chair Tom Cole:

Rep. Tom Cole of Oklahoma, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, said Monday the group will contribute the maximum $84,000 in direct or indirect aid allowable by law to Ozinga in the coming weeks.

Cole said the race for the seat of retiring Rep. Jerry Weller, R-Morris, is among at least 50 and maybe 60 seats the NRCC will seek to influence in the stretch run. He said the committee had not moved to help Ozinga and other candidates so far due to limited funds.

“This is a ‘don’t fire until you see the whites of their eyes,’ ” strategy, Cole said.

It’s sort of fitting that Cole would use a battle cry from the American Revolutionary War, when the range of muskets was severely limited, as the NRCC’s capabilities have certainly regressed by a few decades over the past year and a half.

Also amusing is Cole’s note that the NRCC will influence “at least 50 and maybe 60 seats” this fall. With what? Spitballs? Well, I guess the NRCC can influence a race by not spending any money on it…

UPDATE: Full Anzalone-Liszt polling memo below the fold.

So much for Bill Cassidy being a “major upgrade” over Woody Jenkins for Louisiana Republicans. The DCCC is out with a hard-hitting new attack ad nailing Cassidy for his steadfast support of Social Security privatization (the bad kind of “SSP”):

In 2008, this kind of thing is just utterly toxic.

We’re up to our neck in new polls today — in other words, we’re now in horse race junkie heaven.

First, Colorado. Public Policy Polling (9/20-21, likely voters, 8/5-7 in parens):

Mark Udall (D): 48 (47)

Bob Schaffer (R): 40 (41)

Undecided: 12 (12)

(MoE: ±3%)

And Quinnipiac (9/14-21, likely voters, 7/14-22):

Mark Udall (D): 48 (44)

Bob Schaffer (R): 40 (44)

Undecided: 11 (11)

(MoE: ±2.6%)

Two quality polls from quality pollsters showing great results for Mark Udall. Sooner or later, Dick Wadhams & Co. will have to look down and realize that they’ve run off a cliff.

Bonus findings: Quinnipiac shows Obama leading McCain by 49-45 in Colorado, and PPP pegs Obama’s lead at a dramatic 51-44.

MN-Sen: Quinnipiac (9/14-21, likely voters, 7/14-22 in parens):

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 49 (53)

Al Franken (D): 42 (38)

Other: 3 (2)

Undecided: 6 (8)

(MoE: ±2.7%)

Well, the trend line is positive, so at least we have that much, but I wish that Quinnipiac included Dean Barkley in the match-up. We’ve already seen Barkley taking a significant share of the vote in other polls, so he’s the big X-factor here.

Bonus finding: Qunnipiac shows Obama edging McCain by 47-45 in Minnesota.

I had not planned to publish another Oregon political news roundup but a few stories in today’s news cry out for me to make them known to the blogosphere.  They are:

1. Matt Wingard’s troubles deepen-The State Legislative candidate’s (R) child abuse issues may be worse than previously thought.

2. Oregon Dems blast the bailout.

3. Oregon Dems surge in registration in OR-5.

Cross-posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

Matt Wingard’s Troubles Deepen:

Source: http://www.oregonlive.com/news/index.ssf/2008/09/a_political_ad_notes_wilsonvil.html.

As reported yesterday, the Oregon D’s have launched an ad critical of State Rep. candidate (and interim incumbent) Matt Wingard (R-Wilsonville) regarding his 2002 conviction for misdemeanor assault for attacking his then 7-year old son with a screwdriver.  However, the story does not end there.  According to filings made over custody of the child in 2004 (Wingard and the child’s mother never married), the child’s mother claims that this incident was “part of a history of abusive behavior by Wingard, including slapping that left bruises.”  This begs the question of how the Republicans can really claim to be family first if they can’t even pick a candidate who takes care of their own family.

Oregon Dems Blast the Bailout:

Source: http://www.oregonlive.com/news/index.ssf/2008/09/defazio_urges_congress_to_go_s.html

Led by longtime OR Congressman Peter DeFazio (D-OR4), Oregon Democrats stood up against Henry Paulson’s $700B bailout plan in unison.  As Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR) said, “Unless we address the underlying faults in the system that brought us to this financial abyss in the first place, we may simply be building the world’s largest bridge to nowhere.”  By contrast, Gordon Smith couldn’t seem to make up his mind, stating that “We’re looking at a bad option and potentially worse options.”  This is perhaps further proof of how out of touch Gordon Smith is, not surprising given his substantial wealth and strong record as a Bush clone.  Still, I am proud to say that Oregon Democrats stand united against this giveaway.

Oregon Dems Surge in Registration in OR-5

Source: http://www.oregonlive.com/news/index.ssf/2008/09/democratic_registration_surges.html

Oregon’s fifth congressional district has never been considered safe for the Democrats.  Since first taking office, retiring Rep. Darlene Hooley (D-OR) had never won with even as much as 60% of the vote and always faced a registration disadvantage.  Well, that is no longer true as the Democrats now hold an edge of about 20k in the district, which combined with the myriad problems of Republican candidate Mike Erickson, should give Schrader a relatively easy win.

Let me know what you think.

Brilliant Corners Research & Strategies for the DCCC and EMILY’s List (9/15-17, likely voters):

Alice Kryzan (D): 39

Chris Lee (R): 29

Undecided: 32

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Evidently, leaners weren’t pushed off the fence in this poll, so one wonders what the picture would look like had that been done, but these are still some promising numbers for Alice Kryzan.

The full polling memo is available below the fold. Check out Lee’s name ID: 30%. No wonder the undecideds are so high.

Well, this is the big break that Boswell needed:

Now, the Democrat has been added to the DCCC’s exploding “Red to Blue” list and estimates he’s taken in another quarter of a million dollars since the May 20 primary. But the best news may be the DCCC reservation of $840,000 worth of ads in the district, with the ads slated to begin at the end of the week.

The DCCC’s ads could be in critical in the expensive Louisville media market, where about three-fifths of the voters reside and where neither Boswell nor Guthrie is particularly well-known. The National Republican Congressional Committee has not reserved time in the district.

Earlier in the summer, Boswell posted a three-point lead over Republican state Sen. Brett Guthrie in a SUSA poll of the race. He followed that up earlier this month with a Garin-Hart-Yang internal showing him leading by eight points. Boswell has been active in Kentucky politics for decades, serving in the state Senate since 1991, and before that, as the state’s Commissioner of Agriculture and five years in the state House.

However, with only $45,000 in the bank at the end of June, Boswell was at risk of getting swamped out by the far superior fundraising of Guthrie. With the DCCC on board, Boswell now has a fighting chance.

UPDATE: Here’s the first ad: