Month: September 2008

This is nuts:

In an unusual campaign move, U.S. Rep. Tom Feeney will use a new television ad to apologize for his role in the Jack Abramoff corruption scandal.

Set to air Tuesday, the 30-second spot features Feeney alone at a kitchen telling viewers that he made a “rookie mistake” by taking a 2003 golfing trip to Scotland that was paid for Abramoff, whom he calls a corrupt lobbyist.”I embarrassed myself, I embarrassed you and for that, I’m very sorry,” said Feeney, holding a black coffee mug as soft music plays in the background.

Here’s the full script:

“Five years ago, when I was first elected to Congress I was invited on trip to Scotland.  I found out later that it was paid for by a corrupt lobbyist. It was a rookie mistake and I did everything I could to make it right.  I reported it to the ethics committee and I paid the money back. I embarrassed myself, I embarrassed you and for that, I’m very sorry. I’m Tom Feeney and I approve this message because public service means about being honest, even when you make a mistake.”

You don’t usually see incumbents in a tough election issue mea culpas like this. (Note also that he’s only apologizing years after the offending incident.) In fact, this move had shades of Don Sherwood all over it. Will voters be in a forgiving mood this November? I doubt it.

(Bumped – promoted by James L.)

In the wake of the Census Bureau releasing 2007 American Community Survey data by Congressional district, it’s time for another demographic data dump. (I previously wrote about population change here.) Today, let’s take a look at income and poverty numbers.

As with the population numbers, it’s more interesting to look at the change from 2000 to 2007, rather than simply asking who’s on top and who’s on bottom. VA-11 is always going to be wealthy; NY-16 is always going to be obscenely poor. Looking at change, however, provides some interesting insight into what districts are hurting more or less than before, and thus where economic-themed messaging might play best.

As you can see by many of the same districts showing up in each category, income and poverty correlate pretty closely. I’m including both median household income and per capita income since those can give very different results. They tend to vary depending on household size; PCI tends to be highest in affluent downtown districts with a lot of single-family households, while MHI is highest in suburban/exurban areas where people earn a lot but households full of kids drag down the PCI numbers.

Let’s start with biggest gains in median household income:

District	Rep.	2000	2007	Change
VA-08	Moran (D)	$63,430	$90,662	$27,232
VA-11	Davis (R)	$80,397	$103,664	$23,267
VA-10	Wolf (R)	$71,560	$93,701	$22,141
NY-14	Maloney (D)	$57,152	$78,843	$21,691
CA-44	Calvert (R)	$51,578	$71,923	$20,345
CA-48	Campbell (R)	$69,663	$89,758	$20,095
NY-01	Bishop (D)	$61,884	$81,221	$19,337
MD-08	Van Hollen (D)	$68,306	$86,971	$18,665
MD-05	Hoyer (D)	$62,661	$81,179	$18,518
CA-30	Waxman (D)	$60,713	$79,149	$18,436

More over the flip…

Now for the smallest gains (or drops) in median household income:

District	Rep.	2000	2007	Change
MI-14	Conyers (D)	$36,099	$35,228	– $871
MI-13	Kilpatrick (D)	$31,165	$30,842	– $323
TX-09	Green (D)	$34,870	$34,934	$64
GA-04	Johnson (D)	$47,943	$48,327	$384
TX-24	Marchand (R)	$56,098	$57,552	$1,454
MI-12	Levin (D)	$46,784	$48,417	$1,633
NC-12	Watt (D)	$35,775	$37,574	$1,799
MI-05	Kildee (D)	$39,675	$41,535	$1,860
NC-01	Butterfield (D)	$28,410	$30,441	$2,031
IL-02	Jackson (D)	$41,330	$43,380	$2,050

We’re getting into Dickensian tale-of-two-districts territory here, as you can see the rich districts getting richer (basically confined to the New York, Washington, and Los Angeles areas). The only surprise, to me, is CA-44, which is out in the Inland Empire and is seeing a lot of Latino growth. Apparently it’s also seeing a lot of growth of upscale subdivisions on its remaining patches of empty buildable ground.

Likewise, we’re seeing the poor getting poorer, as working-class blue-collar districts that have escaped the worst of urban poverty (like MI-14 and IL-02) slowly slide into poverty with the loss of manufacturing jobs. The main surprise (and only Republican held district) is TX-24, the suburban area around DFW airport, which is seeing a lot of Latino growth and white flight to the exurbs.

VA-11 has the highest MHI in both 2000 and 2007, followed by NJ-11. VA-10 (which was #12 in 2000), CA-14, and VA-08 (which was #28 in 2000) round out 2007’s Top 5, while CA-14, CA-15 (which fell to #16 in 2007), and NJ-07 round out 2000’s Top 5.

The lowest MHI for both 2000 and 2007 was in NY-16, followed by KY-05. In 2000, the bottom 5 also included WV-03, CA-31, and AL-07, while in 2007, several of the biggest plungers joined the bottom 5 (NC-01 and MI-13), along with MS-02.

Now let’s turn to per capita income, starting with the biggest gains:

District	Rep.	2000	2007	Change
NY-14	Maloney (D)	$53,752	$71,409	$17,657
NY-08	Nadler (D)	$39,901	$57,462	$17,561
VA-08	Moran (D)	$35,613	$50,413	$14,800
CA-30	Waxman (D)	$34,552	$45,435	$10,883
MD-08	Van Hollen (D)	$36,245	$47,163	$10,918
CA-08	Pelosi (D)	$34,552	$45,435	$10,883
CT-04	Shays (R)	$41,147	$51,868	$10,721
CA-48	Campbell (R)	$37,242	$47,737	$10,495
IL-07	Davis (D)	$25,329	$35,697	$10,368
GA-05	Lewis (D)	$25,963	$35,979	$10,016

And here are the smallest gains:

District	Rep.	2000	2007	Change
MI-14	Conyers (D)	$17,546	$18,047	$501
MI-13	Kilpatrick (D)	$17,078	$18,238	$1,160
MI-05	Kildee (D)	$19,823	$21,299	$1,476
MI-12	Levin (D)	$23,560	$25,263	$1,703
IL-02	Jackson (D)	$18,280	$20,004	$1,724
TX-09	Green (D)	$15,998	$17,825	$1,827
GA-07	Linder (R)	$25,214	$27,079	$1,865
WI-04	Moore (D)	$16,607	$18,591	$1,865
MI-15	Dingell (D)	$23,628	$25,651	$2,023
IN-07	Carson (D)	$19,559	$21,593	$2,034

These results show even more clearly the hit taken by Rust Belt inner cities, and in fact almost the entire Detroit area. The one surprise is another suburban GOP stronghold (for now): GA-07 in Gwinnett County, which is another area that’s increasingly becoming a first stop for immigrants of all nationalities, and a prime source of white flight to other burbs. (TX-09 seems to appear on these lists because it absorbed a large portion of New Orleans’ most impoverished residents.)

NY-14, followed by CA-30, had the highest PCI in both 2000 and 2007. The top 5 in 2000 also included CA-14, CT-04, and NY-08, while the top 5 in 2007 was rounded out with NY-08, CT-04, and VA-08.

The lowest PCI in both 2000 and 2007 was in NY-16, followed by CA-20 and TX-15. The bottom 5 in 2000 also included CA-31 and CA-34, while the bottom 5 in 2007 also included TX-29 and CA-34. Note that these lists are quite different from the bottom 5 in MHI; again, that tends to be a factor of household size. Here, the bottom 5 are all heavily Latino districts, where household size tends to be larger than the rural white or black districts that have the lowest MHIs.

Now let’s look at the highest poverty percentage changes:

District	Rep.	2000	2007	Change
MI-13	Kilpatrick (D)	24.4%	32.5%	8.1%
CO-07	Perlmutter (D)	8.9%	15.0%	6.1%
TN-09	Cohen (D)	19.4%	25.0%	5.6%
MI-14	Conyers (D)	19.7%	25.0%	5.3%
IN-07	Carson (D)	13.5%	18.7%	5.2%
OH-15	Pryce (R)	10.8%	16.0%	5.2%
SC-06	Clyburn (D)	18.4%	23.4%	5.0%
NC-12	Watt (D)	15.9%	20.9%	5.0%
TX-16	Reyes (D)	23.6%	28.6%	5.0%
MI-04	Camp (R)	10.5%	15.2%	4.7%

Finally, let’s look at lowest poverty percentage changes:

District	Rep.	2000	2007	Change
CA-43	Baca (D)	20.7%	12.5%	– 8.2%
CA-20	Costa (D)	32.2%	26.4%	– 5.8%
LA-02	Jefferson (D)	26.8%	21.1%	– 5.7%
NY-15	Rangel (D)	30.5%	25.6%	– 4.9%
CA-34	Roybal-Allard (D)	26.0%	21.1%	– 4.9%
CA-28	Berman (D)	19.1%	14.4%	– 4.7%
CA-38	Napolitano (D)	16.3%	11.6%	– 4.7%
CA-31	Becerra (D)	30.1	25.5	– 4.6%
CA-35	Waters (D)	26.4%	21.9%	– 4.5%
NY-16	Serrano (D)	42.2%	37.7%	– 4.5%

Again, these numbers show Michigan taking a pounding, as well as other Rust Belt cities. Maybe most noteworthy, we’ve come across our first competitive race in an economically distressed area: OH-15, in downtown Columbus. (One other district catching my eye was CO-07 in the Denver suburbs, where I would guess there’s a lot of Latino growth.) The last set of numbers actually shows something good: a large reduction in poverty rates in mostly-Latino districts, especially in the Los Angeles area but in New York as well.

The most impoverished district in both 2000 and 2007 is NY-16 (despite its improvement over the years). In 2000, it was followed by CA-20 (which fell to #10 in 2007), NY-15 (which fell to #15 in 2007), TX-15, and CA-31. In 2007, it was followed by MI-13 (up from #20 in 2000), TX-15, PA-01, and TX-16 (up from #24 in 2000).

The least impoverished districts in 2000 were CO-06, IL-13, WI-05, NJ-07, and NJ-11. In 2007, that list changed to NJ-07, NJ-11, NJ-05, NY-03, and CA-42.

It’s no secret that Idaho’s Republican House delegation is a bit of a tense duo. Case in point: when Bill “Brain Fade” Sali and Mike Simpson served with each other in the Idaho state House (Simpson as Speaker, Sali as undistinguished GOP grunt), Simpson once threatened to throw Sali out of his office window. So perhaps it’s no surprise that Mike Simpson is publicly smacking Sali over his opposition to the recently-proposed federal Wall Street bailout:

“What’s his answer: to let the economy go down?” Simpson said. “Sometimes Bill puts himself in a philosophical position that’s untenable that he can’t get off of. We got into this mess because of the failure of government oversight. Consequently, I think there’s a role for government to play in trying to get us out of this, as much as I don’t like it.”

Now, whether or not you think the Wall Street bailout is a sound move is not really the issue here. What is important is that Sali just got publicly ripped by Idaho’s most senior House representative.

I’d buy that for a dollar.

The goal has been to get to 60 seats in the senate. Let’s assume that Lieberman still caucuses with the Dems, so that means we need 9 seats.

We’ve currently got 8 seats where we’re either tied or ahead: VA, NM, CO, NH, AK, MN, OR and NC. Its far from a sure thing that we’ll win all of these, but all are legitimate targets and I like our trendlines in all of them.

But that’s only 59, so we have to look beyond them to get to 60. There are a number of races that I think we got a shot to get that 60th.  

Three races that I’m giving up on are Oklahoma, Nebraska, and Kentucky. I know Rice and Kleeb are very popular around these parts. I still think Andrew Rice is a terrific candidate, but I always thought the only way Rice had a shot was a Macaca-type gaffe by Inhofe and he hasn’t done it. Kleeb is also a terrific candidate and he’s saying that once he gets his name ID up, his numbers will improve. My question is what is he waiting for, the election is in 6 weeks. I never thought Lunsford really had a shot, even when polls showed him ahead. I always thought this race was more about keeping McConnell occuppied and make him use his considerable warchest on himself

Here are the 3 races that I think could be #60

1. Georgia: Survey USA and Rasmussen show wildly different results of this race. Me being the cynic that I am tend to believe SUSA, but if Ras’ numbers are closer to reality, this is still a race.

2. Maine: I know a lot of people are throwing in the towel on Allen, but I’m not. I know he trails by 13, although I think that poll may have oversampled Republicans as evidenced by Obama’s scant 4 pt. lead. But Maine is the bluest state we’re contesting this cycle and I think a well done ad by Obama and the DSCC’s money-bomb we could see this race turn dramatically quite quickly.

3. Mississippi: This is the closest of the three, but I ahve to admit I’m most bullish about this one. Wicker has been slowly but surely moving up, and unlike Goergia or Maine I don’t really know how they stop Wicker’s momentum.

Public Policy Polling (9/17-19, likely voters):

Tom Udall (D): 57

Steve Pearce (R): 37

(MoE: ±3%)

Pearce better get out of the way, because the Udall Express is barreling down Route 66 at a blazing speed. No wonder the NRSC isn’t wasting a dime here.

Bonus finding: In the Presidential race, Obama enjoys a 53-42 lead over McCain. It looks like Sarah Palin doesn’t play well in New Mexico, as only 38% of voters say her selection makes them more likely to vote for McCain, while 46% say the opposite. This state is looking good.

Anzalone Liszt for Don Cazayoux (9/17-21, likely voters, July in parens):

Don Cazayoux (D-inc): 48 (43)

Bill Cassidy (R): 32 (36)

Michael Jackson (I): 9 (13)

Undecided: 11

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Those are some nice starting numbers for Cazayoux. Hopefully he can minimize Jackson’s impact, but it looks like he’s beginning the campaign with some breathing room.

We’ll post the full polling memo when we get it — which should be very soon. Oh, and while we’re at it, here’s Don Cazayoux’s latest ad.

UPDATE: Full polling memo below the fold, and it contains some more good news. Constituents are giving Cazayoux solid ratings for his work during Hurricane Gustav and its aftermath.

A Public Opinion Strategies poll done for the NRCC has Paul Hodes only up 43%-39% over right wing Republican talk radio host in NH-02.  Now if you adjust this for partisan bias, you get a 47%-35% lead for Hodes, but that still is not overly comforting in this blue district that John Kerry won by six points in 2004 and will need to go for Barack Obama for the same margin if he is going to eke out a win in the state.  

Having to defend Shea-Porter in NH-01 is annoying enough, but having to worry about both seats in this blue trending state is a real pain in the ass.  I cant imagine this state wanting to give control of their whole delegation back to the Republicans.  Watch for other polls in this race.  If Hodes’ lead is this small in public polls, then we can worry.  

Rasmussen (9/18, likely voters):

Bob Conley (D): 41

Lindsey Graham (R-inc): 50

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Bob Conley, the Democratic candidate for Senate in South Carolina against Lindsey Graham, is sort of the flip side of Bob Kelleher, the Republican Senate candidate in Montana: a quaint eccentric with no institutional support and who’s way out of step with his ostensible party. Conley was a member of the Horry County Republican Committee before seeking the Democratic nomination. He voted for Ron Paul in the primaries, and, consistent with that, is running a paleo-con “America First” campaign that, according to his own campaign website, is “well to [Graham’s] right.” (Check out the precision of his flap-top; he makes Jon Tester look like Sideshow Bob.)

Rasmussen just polled this race for the first time, and to probably everyone’s surprise, it shows Conley within 9 points of Graham, who’s right at the 50% mark. I’m not sure whether this odd result reflects more poorly on Rasmussen (who also found an edge of only 51 McCain-46 Obama from the same sample… which may be fishy, or may be a leading indicator of the blue wave seeping down from Virginia into the Carolinas) or on Graham, who’s never had much luck at wooing social conservatives. Don’t look for the parties to get involved in this one, though, even if further polling continues to bear out these numbers.

If Republicans thought they dodged a bullet when Jon Powers lost the Democratic primary for the open seat of retiring GOP Rep. Tom Reynolds, they just received a reality check. The DCCC has just hit the airwaves with this ad:

Here’s the full script:

NAFTA has already cost New York over 50,000 jobs. But Congressional candidate Chris Lee chose to employ labor in China. Work that could’ve been done right here. Lee tried to hide the facts, removing all mention of his company employing workers in China from his campaign website, hoping you wouldn’t learn the truth. Chris Lee: a record of employing labor in China we can’t afford. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is responsible for the content of this advertising.

Enough has happened in the past few weeks for me to do one of my occasional Oregon political news roundups.  Specifically, the following four stories will be covered:

1. Gordon Smith the Elitist-Smith is revealed to be at least the 10th richest member of Congress.

2. One expensive movie ticket-The Governator no shows for a Smith fundraiser, choosing to appear via satellite.  

3. Republican Wingard gets hit for child abuse conviction in new ad.

4. Democrats continue rise in voter registration.

Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

Gordon Smith the Elitist:

According to Roll Call’s list of the 50 Richest Members of Congress, Oregon’s own Gordon Smith comes in at #10, with an estimated worth of $28.65M.

Yet that is not the end of the story, to quote Roll Call:

If you take financial disclosure forms seriously (never a good idea), you might be led to believe that Smith’s net worth tripled last year. His 2006 financial disclosure form disclosed net assets of about $8.5 million.

But Smith’s worth is largely derived from Smith Food Sales, a purveyor of frozen vegetables. In 2006 he listed that asset as being worth $5 million to $25 million. In 2007, the value has jumped to the next category, $25 million to $50 million, so even if the value of the asset rose from just under to just more than $25 million, the effect on the disclosure form is to add $20 million to Smith’s minimum net worth. Since Smith doesn’t have to report the assets of the corporation, his actual net worth may be far above what is reported on the Congressional form.

Add to that the recent news that Gordon Smith’s house is worth more than the rest of the OR delegation combined ($3.5M) and that he is the only member of the delegation to not actually live in DC, and one wonders who Gordon Smith really thinks he’s fooling when he says he is not elitist.

Source for the houses info: Congressional Cribs (OR).

One Expensive Movie Ticket

Source: Smith fundraiser turns into pricey movie ticket

Gordon Smith had long planned to hold a fundraiser with the Governator Ahnold (R-CA) and had secured gifts of $1k per person to see the Governator speak.  However, due to the budget crisis in CA, the Governator did not come, instead speaking via satellite link to the event.  There is now some word that he will come up later for Gordon Smith, but this still begs the question of how deep Smith must be reaching if he needs to rely basically solely on a former action star to fundraise.

Wingard gets hit on child abuse conviction:

Source: Democratic ad hits Wingard on assault

A few months back, it was reported that Matt Wingard had been convicted several years back for misdemeanor assault after hitting his then 7-year old son with a screwdriver.  At the time, the OR Repubs tried to get Wingard, who is running for the state house from Wilsonville, a slightly red seat but certainly winnable, to drop out but were unsuccessful.  Now the Democrats have released a mailer attacking Wingard for his conviction, an attack that Democratic candidate Jessica Adamson stands behind, stating “This is a community of Saturday morning football games and family dinners and game nights. I don’t believe that Mr. Wingard’s actions reflect the community that I know.”  It remains to be seen what impact this will have but I have to say I like the strategy.

Oregon Democrats Continue Voter Registration Rise:

In just released voter registration figures covering registration through the end of August (http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/votreg/aug08.pdf) it was revealed that once again the Democrats have increased their lead in the state.  Statewide, there are now 894k Democrats and 677k Republicans, with the rest of Oregon’s slightly more than 2M registered voters independents or third party members.  For comparison, in 2006, there were 763k Democrats and 701k Republicans.  Although the increase has certainly been seen most in heavily Democratic areas, such as Multnomah County, Democrats now hold a voter registration edge, or are within a couple thousand at worst, in more than two thirds of the state’s legislative districts.

Let me know what you think.