Month: September 2008

The NRCC is so confident in its candidate for the open seat in Arizona’s First District, friend-of-Alan-Keyes and all-around nutjob Sydney Hay, that it has decided to let her win the campaign on her own.

Karen Hanretty, communications director for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said the group believes Sydney Hay is a strong candidate who could win the seat without the committee’s financial backing.

“We don’t need to spend resources on all of these races, and simply because some are strong enough to sustain a victory without our financial assistance,” Hanretty said. “And we’re certainly hoping that’s the case in that district.”

This is the same Sydney Hay who was low on the party’s wish list of candidates after stronger candidates took a pass, who barely won her primary against a field of nobodies, who’s trying to succeed scandal-plagued Rick Renzi in an R+2 district, and who’s up against former State Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, who’s the recipient of a $1.7 million ad reservation by the DCCC.

Hay spokesperson Ron Tyler has a slightly different version of the events than the NRCC:

“There’s been communication and hope, and I don’t think they’ve specifically said no, but so far we haven’t had the check written or the commitment made,” he said. “We still have our prayers that somehow they’ll hear and answer and send us some money.”

Myers Research and Grove Insight for the DSCC (dates unknown, likely voters):

Tom Udall (D): 57

Steve Pearce (R): 41

(MoE: ±4%)

Meanwhile, NRSC Chair John Ensign says that Republicans could stay at 49 seats after November, which, under any plausible scenario, would have to include a Steve Pearce victory.

Not. Gonna. Happen.

SSP currently rates this race as Likely Democratic.

John Boccieri to Introduce Joe Biden in Canton Thursday

At approximately 10:00 a.m. this Thursday, Sept. 18, candidate for U.S. Congress John Boccieri (OH-16) will introduce Senator and Democratic Vice Presidential Nominee Joe Biden at a rally in downtown Canton.

Boccieri will address the audience prior to Biden’s appearance, focusing on the need for change in the 16th Congressional District.

WHO: State Sen. John Boccieri (D-Alliance), 16th District Congressional Candidate, Sen. Joe Biden (DE), Democratic Vice Presidential Nominee

WHAT: Change We Need Rally

WHERE: Football Hall of Fame, 2121 George Halas Drive NW, Canton, OH

WHEN: Approximately 10:00 a.m. (doors open at 8:00 a.m.)

John Boccieri is the Democratic candidate for U.S. Congress in the 16th Congressional District. The district’s current congressman, Ralph Regula, is retiring this year.

Boccieri has represented eastern Stark County for eight years in the Ohio legislature as a State Representative and State Senator. Boccieri has also served 14 years in the U.S. Air Force, including four tours in Iraq and Afghanistan, and currently holds the rank of Major. Boccieri was born and raised in northeast Ohio and lives in Alliance with his wife, Stacey, and four children.

The event is free and open to the public; however, tickets are required. Space is limited and available on a first-come, first-served basis.

For security reasons, do not bring bags. Please limit personal items. No signs or banners allowed.

For more information, call the Canton Campaign for Change office (330) 452-4746

Via West Virginia Blue, Robert Byrd has cut a commercial for Anne Barth (D), running against incumbent Shelley Moore Capito (R).  It’s pretty similar to the DSCC ads against Elizabeth Dole, with two men sitting on the porch just chattin’ away.

Franklin & Marshall College Poll (9/9-14, registered voters):

Paul Kanjorski (D-inc): 35

Lou Barletta (R): 44

(MoE: ±4.2%)

Now, there’s not much that I know about this poll’s sample breakdown or its crosstabs. The Franklin & Marshall College Poll (formerly the Keystone Poll) is a respected survey in Pennsylvania, but it’s hard to judge a poll like this without seeing its innards. Hopefully we’ll get some more information on this one shortly. (UPDATE: Full polling memo available below the fold.)

Still, with three polls showing Barletta leading (albeit, two of them were Barletta internals) and no other polls to inform us otherwise, it’s getting increasingly difficult to give Kanjorski the benefit of the doubt here. He’s in serious trouble.

UPDATE: Perhaps sensing trouble, the DCCC releases a poll of their own. Grove Insight (9/14-15, likely voters):

Paul Kanjorski (D-inc): 48

Lou Barletta (R): 39

Undecided: 14

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Even those aren’t exactly rock-solid numbers, but they’re much better than anything else we’ve seen so far.

Talk about going off message. In an interview with PolitickerPA.com, GOP Rep. Phil English called the fact that the NRCC is polling his race against Democratic businesswoman Kathy Dahlkemper an “ominous” portent for his re-election:

“Ominously, we saw also they had polled,” noted English. “I think they’re testing.”

Not exactly ringing words of self-confidence, wouldn’t you say? But don’t worry, Philly quickly shifted gears to full spin mode:

But the results of the survey, he speculated, had been favorable.

“I think it’s also significant that we noticed from a distance that after they polled they did not go forward and launch early ads. I think that’s a strong indication of how strong our campaign has been.”

In that case, every Republican incumbent must be in incredibly strong shape, because the NRCC hasn’t spent a dime on attack ads anywhere. Or it could be that the NRCC has a 4-to-1 cash disadvantage against the DCCC, and can’t afford to use up their resources this early. But what do I know.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican, but the beads of sweat forming on Philly’s upper lip are quite telling.

The DCCC is opening up their floodgates to some serious advertising expenditures in support of Democratic House candidates. Tonight, the committee filed $1.75 million in advertising expenditures in 15 districts:

These are some of the first significant media buys that the DCCC has made this fall, including a whopping $500K dumped against Jeb Bradley in NH-01.

The NRCC is continuing to maintain radio silence, because they can’t afford to match pace. I wonder if they’ll do some serious deficit financing in order to stay afloat this year.

More details on these and other expenditures are available in SSP’s Independent Expenditure Tracker. The DCCC has made some of these ads available to view online on their multimedia page.

Michele Bachmann, August 6, 2008:

“This is their agenda,” Bachmann states bluntly. “I know it is hard to believe, it’s hard to fathom — but this is ‘mission accomplished’ for them,” she asserts. “They want Americans to take transit and move to the inner cities. They want Americans to move to the urban core, live in tenements, [and] take light rail to their government jobs. That’s their vision for America.”

Joe Biden, September 16, 2008:

Meantime, Mr. Biden was assuring another passenger, “If we get elected, it will be the most train-friendly administration ever.”

UPDATE: Cilerder86 (via Lee, Peart, and Lifeson), September 16, 2008:

And the words of the prophets were written on the subway walls and tenement halls: Joe is coming for you Michelle, and he’s coming on Amtrak.

The Tarrance Group for Tom Rooney (9/7-8, likely voters):

Tim Mahoney (D-inc): 48

Tom Rooney (R): 41

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Mahoney isn’t out of the woods yet — only 32% say he deserves re-election, compared to 41% who say that it’s time for someone new. Rooney, a former Chicago-area high school principal Pittsburgh Steelers heir, won’t be hurting for the resources he needs to make his case.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Democratic.

The DCCC is out with four new ads in OH-01, NH-01, CT-04 and MI-09. All pretty good, I think the anti-Chabot one is the best. Good to see them picking up the pace. Also it looks like most of these where released a week ago but the DCCC has all the ads they are running up at their YouTube (which was invented by John McCain, by the way.)

Also in VA-10 Judy Feder has a new ad

Quite frankly, I’m not a big fan of it. She’s got a lot of money but isn’t doing what she needs to win this campaign and that’s too bad because she would be a great congresswomen.

Seeing any other ads lately?