Month: September 2008

Swing State Project is moving its rating of the Washington governor’s race to “Tossup.”

While we’re reasonably confident in governor Chris Gregoire’s ability to prevail in her rematch with 2004 GOP opponent Dino Rossi, thanks to Obama coattails on top of Washington’s Democratic lean, it’s impossible to ignore the fact that the most recent round of polling from both Rasmussen and SurveyUSA has given narrow leads to Rossi. If there’s any question, look at the trendlines.

There are several factors at work here: a higher energy level on the part of Rossi’s supporters (who have spent the last four years feeling that they wuz robbed), and Rossi’s skill as a retail politician vs. Gregoire’s reluctance to toot her own horn. Most significant is a sustained Rossi ad blitz, funded by big bucks from the Republican Governor’s Association (who don’t have too many other wise places to spend their money) and even more from the Evergreen State’s principal behind-the-scenes right-wing string-pullers, the Building Industry Association of Washington. Rossi will still be running into a stiff Democratic headwind in November, but a Rossi win is no longer out of the question.

The Swing State Project is moving its rating of the North Carolina Senate contest from “Lean Republican” to “Tossup“.

Recent polling confirms a dramatic tightening of this race in the past month after the DSCC began unloading a series of advertisements calling into question Dole’s effectiveness in Washington and her ties to Bush and “big oil”. We’ve been waiting to see if Dole could mount an effective counter-attack against Hagan, but we still have yet to see a coherent GOP defense here. Whereas Hagan and the DSCC have chosen their narrative (Dole being an ineffective creature of Washington for the past 40 years) and are driving the message effectively and relentlessly. Dole’s sliding re-elect numbers confirm the shakiness of her position.

On the national scale, most polls are indicating a tight contest — certainly much closer than John Kerry’s performance against Bush in 2004. Democrats have already added over 130,000 voters to their registration advantage over the GOP here since 2006, and Obama’s ground game will be working hard to turn out the base vote. While his campaign is not favored to win the state, Hagan, with more crossover appeal as a down-home Democrat, could be poised to reap the benefits of his operation.

Dole will still be tough to beat, but we can no longer give her the edge in the face of a very effective campaign by Hagan and the DSCC.

Here’s a powerful new ad from Ronnie Musgrove:

There’s Ronnie Musgrove, standing in the dilapidated house that he grew up in, telling us about his family’s struggle after he lost his father at age seven, and talking about how he’ll help those who are currently struggling. It’s a powerful message — one that’s very reminiscent of the story of Travis Childers’ life.

Anzalone Liszt for Travis Childers (9/7-10, likely voters, 6/8 in parens):

Travis Childers (D-inc): 51 (46)

Greg Davis (R): 39 (39)

Undecided: 10 (-)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

The people can’t help but like Childers. His favorable/unfavorable rating is 55-24, while Greg Davis is still stuck in a special election hangover, with only a 40-32 favorable rating.

Anzalone has had a great track record with this race. Their polling correctly predicted a dead heat in early April, and private numbers also showed Childers with a slight lead heading into the final runoff in May. Despite Sarah Palin awakening a Zombie Republican Army across the nation, things are looking very good for Cold Chillin’ Travis this fall.

Boy, that special election sure was a lot of fun, wasn’t it?

Update: The full polling memo is available below the fold.

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for Michael Skelly (9/7-9, likely voters, 12/5-12/2007 in parens):

Michael Skelly (D): 37 (33)

John Culberson (R-inc): 44 (52)

Other: 6 (-)

Undecided: 13 (16)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

These are some nice numbers for Michael Skelly, whose summer ad campaign has clearly bought him some momentum against unaccomplished GOP Rep. John Culberson in this R+15.6 (but Dem-trending) suburban Houston district.

SSP currently rates this race as Likely Republican, but we’re diggin’ this trend.

There he goes again. Fresh off from trashing liberal bloggers (like us) for pushing “long shot” House candidates, Stuart Rothenberg is taking aim at DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen himself for the crime of, um, promoting Democratic House candidates. But let’s walk through Rothenberg’s latest opus one step at a time before we get to that.

After a long hangover spent lying face-first in the gutter, the GOP is on the upswing, Rothenberg says:

Given that, it certainly appears that the DCCC is running a risk by promoting some candidates who have little or no chance to win in the fall, and by lumping together very strong contenders with second-tier campaigns.

Running the risk of what, exactly? Losing the undeniably uphill races and having blowhards like Stu Rothenberg say “I told you so!” in their beltway-brained columns? I think that’s a risk that the DCCC would gladly take with a yawn.

Rothenberg singles out the campaigns of Sam Bennett (PA-15), David Boswell (KY-02), Judy Feder (VA-10) and Anne Barth (WV-02) as dubious choices for the committee’s “Red to Blue” program based on either the redness of their districts, the popularity of the incumbents, or their financial disadvantages. That’s all well and good, but who says the DCCC shouldn’t fight against the odds? After all, as well-timed expenditures by the DCCC in districts like CA-11, KS-02, KY-03, NY-20, and PA-04 showed in 2006, it’s worth keeping your options open and having as many strong campaigns in place around the country as possible. Instead, Rothenberg would rather see the DCCC wave the white flag like “sensible realists”.

Rothenberg seems to subscribe to a very particular view about politics: if a campaign is not in the obvious top tier of pickup opportunities, they are not worth your attention or even your respect.

Take his sniping against the candidates listed in the DCCC’s “Emerging Races” and “Races to Watch” slates, which he lambastes for including some “truly odd” and “bizarre” choices like Jim Harlan (LA-01), Linda Ketner (SC-01), Josh Zeitz (NJ-04) and Ron Hubler (IA-05). Rothenberg admits that Democrats are not expecting upsets by this bunch, and that their inclusion on these lists does not mean that the D-Trip is committed to funding them, but he can’t seem to wrap his mind around the fact that the committee wants to give these hard-working candidates a friendly pat on the back. I guess he would prefer Chris Van Hollen to give each candidate a personal kick in the ass instead.

Rothenberg goes even further:

But if the DCCC is going to go out of its way to promote certain races, it ought to be responsible for those selections.

Responsible how, exactly? Should the DCCC be tried before a jury of Stuart Rothenberg, David Broder and Brendan Nyhan on charges of slight exuberance in the service of politics? Should we be demanding that MAD Magazine devote an issue to mocking the D-Trip? Should we get out there and tar-and-feather Chris Van Hollen?

Somehow, I have a feeling that CVH’s reputation will do just fine after this election. Not that Stu Rothenberg would agree:

But if the national landscape continues to move even slightly more back toward the Republicans, eroding (but certainly not eliminating) the Democrats’ huge early advantages, DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen (Md.) might find himself promoting dozens of candidates with no chance of winning. And that would be embarrassing and self-defeating.

It’s sort of funny. This is at least the second time this year (by my count), that Rothenberg has implied that Van Hollen should be ashamed of himself. (Back in May, he claimed that CVH should be embarrassed for putting GOP incumbents on notice after Travis Childers’ win.) But does he deliver this kind of special scorn to NRCC Chair Tom Cole? No, he bends over backwards to call Cole “not the real problem”. Of course, the fact that Cole lost three special elections in deeply red seats is nothing to be embarrassed about. Not at all.

But hey, since we’re talking about people who ought to feel embarrassed, how about Stu Rothenberg himself for writing all this?

IL-10 (McLaughlin & Associates for Mark Kirk, 9/10-11, likely voters, 6/9 in parens):

Dan Seals (D): 29 (32)

Mark Kirk (R-inc): 51 (53)

Undecided: 21 (15)

(MoE: ±5.7%)

On its face, those are some un-sexy numbers for Dan Seals. However, the partisan breakdown of the poll is 35D-33R-29I. Labels and Lists pegs the district as 34D-21R-44I, and other internal Democratic numbers I’ve seen show Dems with a 7-point advantage here in terms of partisan identity. Also importantly, Kirk has saturated the airwaves (broadcast, cable, and radio) with $650K worth of ads in the last month. The DCCC has just started to enter the action here, sending out mailers and airing ads immediately after this poll was conducted. Seals himself has just gone back up on the airwaves:

NJ-03 (McLaughlin & Associates for Chris Myers, 9/8-9, likely voters):

John Adler (D): 29

Chris Myers (R): 33

Undecided: 37

Barack Obama (D): 42

John McCain (R): 45

(MoE: ±5.7%)

This is a D+3.3 district in South Jersey that Kerry lost by two points in 2004. I’d be surprised if Obama fared as bad as this poll suggests, but this is also a district that’s not accustomed to electing Democrats to Congress. On the bright side, Adler maintains a ginormous financial edge over Myers, and the DCCC has already been making their presence felt in the district. Still, never take anything for granted.

PA-06 (Public Opinion Strategies for Jim Gerlach, 8/19-21, likely voters, 5/21 in parens):

Some Dude Bob Roggio (D): 28 (30)

Jim Gerlach (R-inc): 57 (56)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Yeah, I can’t say I have much in the way of positive spin to offer here. Roggio’s name ID has jumped a whopping 5 points since May — all the way up to 10%!

This past Friday morning in Venango County all 3 candidates for the 5th Congressional District appeared at the Venango County Chamber of Commerce Breakfast Candidate Forum.   During this event, the issue of fiscal responsibility, the $482 billion budget deficit and the $9.7 trillion federal debt came up several times.   Fiscal responsibility is perhaps the single issue that clearly defines the difference between me and my opponents in this campaign.

Since day one of my candidacy I’ve stressed that we must bring the federal budget back in balance, return to growing a surplus and make the long term commitment to paying down our debt to foreign countries.  My Republican opponent stated again on Friday that he supports extending the Bush tax cuts.   Contrary to what he says, I continue to believe the first step to return to fiscal responsibility is to allow the Bush tax cuts to expire.  Below is a chart from the Congressional Budget Office that shows the negative impact the Bush tax cuts had on the federal budget along with projections of what will happen when they expire.

Be advised, the chart above was released in January of 08, months before the Bush administration themselves announced a record deficit of $482 billion when they leave office in January of 09.  The chart above actually had a more optimistic projection of a deficit of around $220 billion for 08/09.

While John McCain and many Republicans running for Congress continue to support the idea of “trickle down” economics, there is no proof that this type of fiscal policy will succeed, especially with the unstable condition the nation’s economy is in.  Consider that banks are failing, the housing bubble has burst, the mortgage / foreclosure crisis, the bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the American auto industry is seeking federal loan guarantees along with and other economic indicators that show the US economy in turmoil.  There are too many problems that require financial intervention from the federal government at a time when our federal government is in it’s fiscally weakest condition ever.

I continually point to the fact of how well off the economy was in the late 90’s when we were showing fiscal responsibility with a balanced budget, a growing surplus and a decreasing debt load.  Then, George W. Bush took office on January 20th, 2001 with a record budget surplus and he, along with the Republican controlled Congress, chose to halt fiscally responsible policy for the quick gratification of a tax cut that mostly benefited the wealthiest 5% of the citizens.  Even more problematic was when President Bush made the decision to begin the Iraq war, he failed to adjust his fiscal policies to pay for it.  

We must recognize that the fiscal mess, while blame lies directly with George W. Bush and Congress, is our nation’s #1 problem and it must be dealt with before we can move forward on solving other domestic problems.  In order to fix this problem, it is going to take sacrifice on the part of everyone.   Unfortunately, it is the people at the top who benefited the most from the Bush tax cuts that cry out “they want to take away MY TAX CUT”.   These same people must be reminded that while they benefited from the Bush tax cuts, it is now “our deficit and our debt” regardless of who the politicians were that made the irresponsible decisions to get us in this hole.   If we were to assign a moral to the story of the George W. Bush presidency, it would be reasonable to say “The Rich Got Richer, The Poor Got Poorer and the Middle Class Had To Pay For It”.

While members of the next Congress will have tough choices to make on how to deal with this fiscal mess, voters will first have to make their own tough choice on November 4th.  Before you vote on November 4th ask yourself this – Do you want to solve this problem now or have it grow larger and pass it on to your children and grandchildren?   Make no mistake — The Bill Must Be Paid at some point.   Voters need to look at this issue in this context: If you were running a business that was having financial problems and you had the choice to hire a person that identified why your business was failing and how to fix it VERSUS a person who was in denial that the problem exists and fails to recognize what caused the problem — which person would you hire to solve this problem?  

I am the only candidate on the ballot in the 5th Congressional District who recognizes the problem and will commit to making the tough / responsible choices to solve this problem that will ultimately secure a better future for our children and grandchildren.   It won’t be easy, but we were on the right track in the 90’s and we can get back there again.  

Here is a link to a story about the 5th District race that is on goerie.com

http://www.goerie.com/apps/pbc…

Highlights From The Past Week:

Last Sunday, Kelly, Amanda and I had a wonderful time attending the Democratic picnics in Clinton and Lycoming Counties.   On Tuesday, I invited Art Goldschmidt of State College to travel with me to Tioga County to attend the opening of the Tioga County Obama / Democratic Headquarters.  Wednesday we were in St. Marys attending a labor rally for both myself and State Rep. Dan Surra that was organized by various labor unions.  

Special thanks to the Pennsylvania AFL-CIO for providing the Billy Bus for an appearance at the rally in St. Marys.  Friday was the aforementioned Venango County Chamber Candidate Forum.   In the evening on Friday I attended the 50th Anniversary of the Brady Township Fire Company in Luthersburg, Clearfield County.

Saturday, Henry Guthrie and I spent the day in Warren County attending the opening of the Obama / Democratic Headquarters in Warren and later in the day we attended the Warren County Democratic Committee Steak Dinner.   Below are some pictures from the events in Warren County.

Warren County Obama HQ Opening Pictures:

Warren County Democratic Committee Steak Dinner:

Schedule for the Upcoming Week:

Sunday — Mike Hanna Event in Moshannon PA — 3 PM

Tuesday — Visit to Clarion County Democratic HQ — Meeting with Clarion / Venango County Supporters — 7 PM

Wednesday — Moshannon Valley EDC Candidate Breakfast Forum — 8 PM Philipsburg Country Club,  Centre County Realtors Lunch — State College — Noon  /  Elk County Democratic Meeting — 7 PM

Thursday — DuBois Chamber of Commerce Legislative Day — DuBois Country Club — 5 PM

Friday — Venango County Chamber of Commerce Breakfast Candidate Forum — Franklin PA — 7:30 AM,  Brady Township in Clearfield County VFD 50th Anniversary Dinner — 6 PM

Saturday — Festival in Johnsonburg — Elk County / Elk Expo — Kersey / Sykesville Gun Raffle — 5:30 PM

Sunday — Union Twp Fire Co. 50th Annv. Celebration / Truck Show — Rockton PA

IMPORTANT – Keith Bierly is still signing up people to participate in the “We’re Backin McCracken Golf Outing” on Monday September 22nd beginning at 8 AM at the Belles Springs Golf Course – Clinton County.  Please contact Keith at keithbierly@yahoo.com.

REMINDER — Keep talking with people about the 5,000 Friends to Flip the Fifth project.   We can win the 5th District Congressional District for the first time in 32 years but we need to be organizing our forces heading into the final weeks.   While it’s my name that will be on the ballot on November 4th, this victory will be for all the hard working people of the 5th Congressional District.

Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate For Congress

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This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

ActBlue page

Over the weekend, skywaker9 diaried about Gordon Smith’s outrageous new ads accusing Jeff Merkley of being soft on sex offenders. The ads, of course, are bogus and misleading, and Merkley is hitting back with a pair of his own spots released today:

The first ad features Kristi Gustafson, an Oregon law enforcement officer, defending Merkley against Smith’s “lies and innuendo”. It’s an effective spot.

Gordon Smith is making a dangerous play with his ads, hoping to saddle Merkley with a Willie Horton-type of situation. It’s a kind of nastiness I haven’t seen in an ad since the 2005 Virginia gubernatorial campaign, when Tim Kaine was pilloried in attack ads for serving as a defense attorney to clients charged with homicide. We all know how that one turned out for Jerry Kilgore.

I sort of wonder if this could be Gordon Smith’s Nancy Johnson moment — an example of an incumbent who everyone thought was “nice” suffering from a heavy backlash after releasing over-the-top attack ads against their political opponents.

It’s a bit too early to tell, but Gordo is skating on some thin ice.

The Kitchens Group for Alan Grayson (9/3-6, likely voters):

Alan Grayson (D): 44

Ric Keller (R-inc): 40

(MoE: ± 4.4%)

These are some great numbers for attorney Alan Grayson, who was recently added to the DCCC’s Red to Blue program. Keller hasn’t been exhibiting a lot of strength as of late — he recently held back a poorly-funded primary challenge by only a 53-47 margin, and demographic trends in the Orlando area have contributed to Democrats slicing the GOP’s voter registration advantage from 14K in 2006 to 2K this summer.

This is an R+3 district that Bush won twice — by 8 points in 2000, and 10 points in 2004. But the district has seen an influx of Puerto Rican voters who may be tipping the scales in the other direction. The poll also shows Obama and McCain tied at 44% in the district.

This race will be one to watch, for sure. The full polling memo is available below the fold.